Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Ydrasse]

the funniest world is the world where i get limmed by the people who didn’t vote sheep yesterday i think and then tomorrow everyone’s sitting there like huh how did that one happen who could have seen this turn of events

[fireisredsir]

ok i mean yea either it's in ceph/dunn/me (the people who voted aureal) or scum voted sheep

so yea we could just yeet those three and hope that scum committed to trying to keep both partners alive but i think we're probably capable of better than that and i don't think it's silly to consider worlds where scum bussed

maybe it is one of ceph/dunn idk im not ruling that out, if you're town then id like your takes on them

[Cephrir]

realistically we're going to do what aisa/mena want today unless someone makes a really compelling case against one of them

but those three people alone do not have enough votes to yeet anything anyway so im not sure what that concern is kinda

[Aureal]

I would kill sheep > aureal, if that's the direction we're going in then I'll stop pushing fire because I think we should only have one more slot claim today at most

I agree with the first bit, but unless you now think that fire v skitter is tvt then I don't see why we shouldn't just stay the course.

ok sorry yea everyone please like read pages 58 to 61 or so

VOTE: ydrasse

Oh this is like, where I actually give arguments against sheep where it seemed possible to get another counterwagon going on him. Which apparently you totally tuned out I guess because you decided I was scum or something.

And then nobody can understand why I'm all "!?!?!???!?" when you say CEPH was the one trying to find a different wagon.

VOTE: Ydrasse

[Aisa]

I had some sort of epiphany yesterday that allowed me to townlean Dunn. I wish I could remember what the epiphany was

[Aisa]

The situation today:
{Mena, Ceph}
{Ydra, Aureal}
{fire, Dunn}

This explicitly will have some overlap with my readslist yesterday. The basic new thing is that I took more of a look at Ceph and I feel much better about his slot than I did off the top of my head yesterday

Mena:

medium-strength townread

reasons:
- this post seems pure
- generally the things everyone townreads him for, his fire case especially

doubts:
- the things I TR him for are basically all instances of him acting unusually certain of his reads in a way that seems towny to me. I could be wrong if he's good at faking this as scum.

Ceph:

medium-strength townread

reasons:
- list of posts that to me have towny perspectives: 930, 971, 1013 (specifically the "that's not how I play mafia" combined with the specific observation that he townread Andante), 2240 (see previous posts for context), parts of 2375
- overall vibes. Like of course each of the previous specific posts is fakeable but overall I get the impression he is driven by trying to solve the game.

doubts:
- I'm sorry but my brain does not vibe with the near-dogmatic certainty that Aureal is scum he displays at some points
- Posts like 2241? I disagree with this take though even here I think I kinda buy the "it feels self-explanatory..."

Aureal:

medium-strength townread, but adjusted down because everyone is suspicious of this slot
I don't know where to start explaining this slot, this is a problem for future me

Ydra:

townlean

Spoiler:

My Ydrasse towncase, very briefly, based on CSF and which I was going to do several days ago:

I don't know how accurate this still is, but the last time I played with CSF I got the impression she did not like playing as scum and does not have much WIM as that alignment. I am basically townleaning the slot based on the fact her ISO has several analysis posts that signal to me she was interested in the game and inquisitive. One example is the post below:

Spoiler:

(1) why didn't you like Dunn's entrance?

I think people tend to townread people who push the game out of RVS and being active in the early game, and that doesn't make them scum. I have some difficulty thinking Dunn genuinely believes that

The "your nullreads are actually scumreads" point felt like splitting hairs

also a thought that crossed my mind earlier was did Dunnstral really see Alianna's readslist, open up activity overview, and cross check it? I feel like this is a kind of read that is more likely to come from someone who had already read the entire game and had a sense of who was active and who was not, but he claimed he didn't do that

he was also one of the people who threw out a fast townread on Woo, and while I realize not all of those people are going to be scum, he's also not towny out of that group

(2) what do you like about Alianna?

I went to quote some posts out of her ISO that I liked for you, but uh, on the whole she feels more reactive than I remembered. Here are some posts I remember liking though-

Spoiler:

Current reads: Andante is towny because reasons, Aisa and Invisibility are towny because vibes, Doc and CSF are ever so slightly north of null (Doc because I kind of want to trust Aisa's meta read and CSF because 151 is a good post), and

skitter might be sus but I need to re-read her ISO.

Meh, skitter can go back in the nullbin.

One question though Alianna, shouldn't you have a meta read on me by now and not have to trust another player?

If you think I should have a meta read on you, do you have a meta read on me?

I liked how she responded to Drew's question in 227, and then she actually flipped the question back to her interrogator!

I don’t agree with the idea that Andante is obvious town or that Invis is tunnelling her, but I don’t necessarily think Andante making those assertions is scum-indicative.

I think this is a good post. I think instead of honing in on some things in her ISO that maybe don't feel consistent, she takes a more holistic approach. It was very similar to how I felt at that point in the game

The wagon on Andante's pretty good, but Drew has said he wants to catch up so I don't know why he's being wagoned either.

I'll keep that in mind, ty

Why is the wagon on Andante good?

Came in with some brazen stuff and immediately self-declared obv town. The assumption ig is that scum wouldn't engage in any bravado or start questioning TRs on themselves? But that assumption is worth more when it's not Andante just saying "So what I did just now makes me locktown". It comes off as awareness of reads on yourself, and like, feigning confidence in RVS is just super easy to do. She did this after saying Implo is tryharding early.

It's a solid place for a wagon.

I need to reread the thread and try to figure out if I have any town reads based on anything said that early. I think Invis and skitter saw the logic in

not

seeing the logic in Andante's posts, but I'm not sure if there were any more, and I don't have a better yardstick for townie behavior thus far.

If you think Andante is a good wagon, why did you never vote her?

Good post

Not interested in Andante wagon because I think she's town. The votes there are all meh for different reasons.
Drew wagon is somehow even more meh.
Cephrir and Invis are voting there because...why?
Woo wagon feels slightly better, at least on CSF's side. 250 raises some good points. Doc's 285 feels a little tinfoily though lol.

Not much explanation for this one idk, I just liked it

(3) have you played much with enchant?

yeah I've played several games with him now. If you're trying to gauge whether or not I am good at reading him, I have unfortunately come to realize that I am not. I like playing with him tho, Enchant is a vibe

For example, I like the point in the spoiler about Alianna's 239. Signals to me that she's actually putting effort into the game and trying to read people.

Also, about the post I made the other day:

Spoiler:

Pre Edit:forgot woo was even in the game.

Care to join me?

Pre Edit:forgot woo was even in the game.

Care to join me?

I thought you would never ask

VOTE: Wooooooo!!!

Going all Ric Flair felt appropriate.

Woo!

Throwback to a simpler time. What else do you need to TR CSF slot?
(I'm only half joking!)

I'm not sure if it applies to CSF, but I do feel like joking around is a towntell for some players. I've noticed this in my own play, where if I am scum I feel less interested in joking around in the thread and have to force myself to do it. I think this is partly because playing scum is generally more effort for me and also because I feel a bit more alienated from the thread vibes. When I'm town I live "in" the public thread in a way and there is no other outlet for my bad sense of humour. So idk I thought the "Woo!" post could actually be a bit town-indicative.

Idk I still kinda like my theory here overall

Dunn:

??? pending me remembering what the heck I was thinking yesterday or developing some new opinion

fire:

eehhh some parts of his ISO are ok but overall as I scroll through I feel that most of it is fakeable. There's a lot of hedging and soft opinions. Which I am in no position to criticise, as my whole existence is hedging and soft opinions. This slot is cursed.

[Aisa]

I think the next steps for me are:
- Review Dunn
- Review Ydrasse slot, in particular whatever people have been saying about the interactions with sheep

I think my vote is most likely to settle within Ydra, Dunn, or fire today but we'll see

[Aisa]

Oh explicitly

V/LA for the next 24 hours

so I don't get tempted to procrastinate on some important but aversive IRL stuff tomorrow

[fireisredsir]

I would kill sheep > aureal, if that's the direction we're going in then I'll stop pushing fire because I think we should only have one more slot claim today at most

I agree with the first bit, but unless you now think that fire v skitter is tvt then I don't see why we shouldn't just stay the course.

ok sorry yea everyone please like read pages 58 to 61 or so

VOTE: ydrasse

Oh this is like, where I actually give arguments against sheep where it seemed possible to get another counterwagon going on him. Which apparently you totally tuned out I guess because you decided I was scum or something.

And then nobody can understand why I'm all "!?!?!???!?" when you say CEPH was the one trying to find a different wagon.

VOTE: Ydrasse

yeah reading it back this last time, i kinda did before i guess, my bad

i do think that ceph stepping back after being tunneled feels more significant to me than you who hadn't ever landed on a place to go

but i think knowing sheep is scum and knowing that you were trying specifically to go to sheep does make those points stand out more than they did before

[Aisa]

btw i finished dunn meta refresher course and i actually really think he's town here

like a lot more confident than i thought i was

i was actually thinking that team mafia would show me his scumrange was wider than i thought it was bc i heard he played a good game. and he did. but the mindset and approach is still really different than how he's approaching this game, and how he approaches his town games, imo

As an apprentice Dunn alignment diviner, I'd like to ask if you could elaborate on this

[fireisredsir]

aureal is wolfy but I still think dunn is very wolf and am basically tunneled on dunn/fire until a flip

fire's post about meta was not convincing. I looked through dunn wolfgames, and my conclusion was basically "he has an insanely wide wolfrange so I dont think I will be able to give him meta points in this game," rather than "that game felt different than this game so he's villa". fire if ur v and want to convince me I'd probably want u to talk about why his past villa games and wolf games are noticeably different and then this looks like the first set, rather than mainly based on 1 game. The one line I can see here is that dunn seemed more interested in the wolf games I opened, and extreme refusal to put effort into this game could actually be town for some people with meta like that + explain some of the things I find wolfy lol. but I dont love that read because it still feels like theres some level of investment there that he pretends isnt there, as opposed to another half of the playerlist noping out and being like "I hate this game"

as scum he forces himself to talk about things that he doesn't really care about and as town he just talks about things that he cares about. i think it's noticeable when he's pushing himself to make a post

in both cases sometimes depending on the game he cares about more things or less things and activity can reflect that. and sometimes there's things he cares about as both alignments, like how activity isn't AI for him despite many people claiming it is

he's usually a bit cleaner as scum, making sure to justify progressions and show his work when developing a read on someone, while as town he doesn't really feel as much pressure to do that. i think his attitude also tends to come through a lot more as town, as scum there's definitely a bit of a wall up, and any arguments feel a little disengaged and precise

he's not an easy read bc i think he always has a bit of that wall up as either alignment, and isn't super forthcoming with his thoughts. but i think once you get a feel for the style of how he approaches things, you can see it. on a surface level the posting can look fairly similar but you have to look deeper for the intent behind the posts

this basically

im not like 100% convinced by it idk. i really didn't like his aureal vote even when i thought aureal was scum, although the way he's approached today so far doesn't really feel like scum? and maybe the vote fits into what i said here about not minding that his progression wasn't clean? but there were moments i remember in invictus where (with some encouragement iirc) he made similar somewhat risky choices that came out sounding similarly stiff

the way sheep interacted around asking me for it is potentially useful info but i haven't gotten that far yet

[Aisa]

Ah thanks, if only I'd looked a little further in your ISO

[fireisredsir]

sheep is probably the slot that i feel worse about limming if im wrong which sometimes means it's right

i don't think this has ever been wrong in these type of situations btw and yet i always think "but maybe not this time"

[Menalque]

I would kill sheep > aureal, if that's the direction we're going in then I'll stop pushing fire because I think we should only have one more slot claim today at most

I agree with the first bit, but unless you now think that fire v skitter is tvt then I don't see why we shouldn't just stay the course.

ok sorry yea everyone please like read pages 58 to 61 or so

VOTE: ydrasse

I mean… okay I’ll read them but at least from this post I’m not seeing any slam dunk sorta reason

[fireisredsir]

it was more about aureal to me on those pages, but then that post showed up right after what looked to me like momentum starting to potentially shift towards sheep

[fireisredsir]

i appreciate that you're reading and considering at least tho

[Dunnstral]

What is making me hesitate to say it is Ydrasse is that they voted for sheep yesterday.

[fireisredsir]

What is making me hesitate to say it is Ydrasse is that they voted for sheep yesterday.

can you elaborate on your thoughts

[Aureal]

It'd be lovely if you could explain why you think I'm the only one who would bus there.

[Dunnstral]

My thoughts are that Ydrasse did not "need" to vote for sheep over aureal, but aureal didn't have a choice because the day closed in on being one between the two of them.

[Ydrasse]

i read tonight

[Aisa]

Ok I skimmed two Dunn games (specifically, mafia: viewtopic.php?t=90967 , town: viewtopic.php?t=91073) and I

think

he looks a little closer to the town game here? I have very low confidence in this conclusion but it is a conclusion nonetheless.

I'd describe the difference between the two games as: in the town game it feels like he has more posts where he is "thinking out loud" or presenting half-baked musings ("I wonder if this means that X is town", "one idea I had was that..."). In the scum game he was (imo) more likely to just state a conclusion ("I think this makes [player] scum").

(Idk what I was expecting but the difference ended up being simpler than I thought.)

I had some sort of epiphany yesterday that allowed me to townlean Dunn. I wish I could remember what the epiphany was

I remembered btw but in hindsight it was not based on much

[Aisa]

So I think the next stop for me is to look at Ydra slot's posting a bit more, after which maybe? I'll be able to say who I'm leaning towards yeeting today.

[Aisa]

i think CSF's positioning around enchant is fairly scummy actually in hindsight around post 850 and i think sheep may have kinda noticed and tmi'd it a bit in 875 (and then never really revisited this take)

This seems a bit tinfoil-y, I think 875 is one of those fairly boilerplate posts scum make to justify jumping on a wagon and I don’t think it tells you much about what sheep’s partner must have been thinking or doing at the time

[Aisa]

CSF’s positioning around Enchant is definitely notable, I don’t think I find it scummy though. Personally I don’t recall anything in her tone or justification for the read feeling weird nor do I think opposing the Enchant wagon lightly is inherently scummy