Datisi's University [dead/spec PT]

[Prism]

I did decide to look out of curiosity at one player who had substantial overlap on EM and MS, which is Regfan, former paragon and probably the EM GOAT.

His wiki lists a 72% townwin from 2010-2017, whereas his town winrate on EM was usually in the low 60s, so perhaps you could say the forum format is better at rewarding good players, but I suspect the low sample size plays much more of a role here.

[Prism]

MS-EM also poses a great difficulty for cross-comparison in that the in-practice EV for setups on EM was publicly known and extremely robust because there were often 10,000+ games of a single open setup. This is not at all the case on MS, which is closed playground of swingsets. Whether this cuts in favor of the reliability of results for players like RC or against is unknown to me.

[Dannflor]

that's fair

I can't really compare a sample size of 50 to thousands

I would suspect that a chat mafia format lends itself to higher variance, but I couldn't say by how much

[Prism]

Either way the best players usually didn't get to those high win rates by saying "I had little to no meaningful agency to change the result", so you are at least right in approach!

[GuiltyLion]

i think scum get a lot more agency than individual townies in most games

I would expect an elite town player to win about 75% of their games

I would expect an elite scum player to win close to 100%

I definitely would moderate and update my thinking based on empirical data as Prism is suggesting but my intuition in support of this is that if you are never eliminated as scum then you will always win. Obviously you also have to play around mech, not get guiltied, etc, but theoretically there always exists a path where you can solocarry every scumgame. such a path doesn't exist for town so someone who has mastered the art of making themselves unlimmable will inevitably have a higher winrate as scum

[Prism]

The issue is that is not theoretically possible in many setups unless you extend it to being able to fully control reads over other players.

You can be universally townread, but you will be put into mechanical autoloss with some regularity in all but the most mechanically barebones setups.

[Prism]

(And this is in fact the case in the majority of setups on MS. I mentioned earlier that the 70% scumwin upper bound on EM was accomplished in part because the player picked played almost exclusively setups where the chance of mechanical autoloss was near-zero, so the expectation of 100% win in mountainous does track reality to some extent.)

[GuiltyLion]

yah I didn't mean "unlimmable" in the sense of "universally townread" but rather just "the remaining players alive do not achieve majority vote to eliminate you", but you're correct that my definition is handwaving away requisite skills such as ensuring you that are not mechanically POE'd

mostly I'm just saying if you play a perfect scumgame you win by definition, but you can play a 'perfect towngame' (in the sense of having perfect reads and eliminating scum every day you are alive) and still lose. it's somewhat tautological but I do think there's an important distinction of things being more 'out of your control' as town once you're dead

[GuiltyLion]

although I guess maybe to argue with myself, if I believe 'not getting guiltied' is a controllable aspect of scumplay then I perhaps should similarly say 'not getting NK'd' is a controllable aspect of townplay

[Prism]

such a path doesn't exist for town so someone who has mastered the art of making themselves unlimmable will inevitably have a higher winrate as scum

Also it's true that you can't singlehandedly win the game this way as town, but reducing the rate you are miselimmed is the single easiest way to skyrocket your win %!

Which, when combined with the rate of rolling town, is a huge part of why

de facto

trust telling is such a troublesome strategy

[Prism]

Also while I'm really the only one who cares about the EM-MS cross comparison, one of the biggest things MS has that EM didn't for player agency to is that MS doesn't have a Night 0.

For example, one of the most friendly setups for a scum player trying to maximize their rate of solo carrying had a 1/8 chance they would be a mechanically guaranteed Day 1 elimination. Not the best result!

MS has no night zero, and thus your day play always factors into the mechanical decisions that are made.

[Prism]

Okay no one cares but I have to correct the above, the mechanical worst case in the described EM setup was the player is mechanically flipped Day 1 1/56th of the time, much more favorable than 1/8th

[Andresvmb]

Also, {GuiltyLion, Dusa} should literally always get executed in this game.

I didn't want to make this argument during the game cause I feel like it's just WIFOM but now that I'm flipped town let me just say I would never be so awkward around my buddy getting guiltied like that

(of course, I am saying this now so that if I ever AM that awkward, I can point to exactly this game and say why me having clumsy associative with scum is a towntell for me)

Me saying that I wanted to believe you was real. But you had aligned with Dann so hard that I had real difficulty with it.

I also can’t read Titus like ever. I thought it was so weird Titus wasn’t SR’ing me. I guess I should have stayed with that.

[KatyKimFanClub]

Hi everyone.

This game is hard.

[KatyKimFanClub]

My thoughts:
for the longest time I thought my role was like a Mason traitor, and that there was a masonry already out there that I would pay to join. My logic for this was that 400 points being spent seemed like a lot, though in retrospect finding another confirmed town is way better than a cop, I guess.

I hate how I never trust my gut on things.

[jjh927]

It may not be as hard as you think

[KatyKimFanClub]

This game or mafia the game?

[jjh927]

This game in particular

But maybe the latter too given there are often games like this that people overthink

[KatyKimFanClub]

This game in particular

But maybe the latter too given there are often games like this that people overthink

I overthink everything

I'm guessing the last scum is either osuka or WhemeStar? I don't want to read previous pages here in case it spoils.

[jjh927]

It spoils in the sense that one of them scumslipped at a point in the game

Do you think you can narrow it down from those 2

[KatyKimFanClub]

Did Wheme TMI on Day 1 I remember there was a big argument about him.

[jjh927]

Amusingly furtive also flubbed his fakeclaim, claiming both that he could not and that he could get a result on a player who had a a PR but had not gained points

Which means literally the only scum player who managed not to scumclaim was dannflor who got guiltied

[jjh927]

Did Wheme TMI on Day 1 I remember there was a big argument about him.

Nah

Nobody alive noticed the particular scumclaim

[KatyKimFanClub]

Amusingly furtive also flubbed his fakeclaim, claiming both that he could not and that he could get a result on a player who had a a PR but had not gained points

Which means literally the only scum player who managed not to scumclaim was dannflor who got guiltied

In retrospect I should have just immediately called BS on furtive when the claimed amount for his role was 80 TPR.

[jjh927]

Ignore the scumslip thing for now

Which do you think is scum by play? Wheme or Osuka?