Mini Normal 2311 | Werewolf Lair

[the worst]

zzzx, wiz, you and i would be candidates for a possible messenger

why do we have the rolestopper ability?

[the worst]

traffic analyst & doctor i guess, sure that's fine

is the traffic analyst not like, quite a large problem?

[the worst]

RN will get a result tonight; investigating either of us is pointless so we kinda need to assume that RN is going to get an inno

[the worst]

JacksonVirgo - claimed neighbour, not a good target
the worst - claimed neighbour, not a good target
Random Nurse - self
TheHoldSteady - the doctor he is asking to target him, not a good target


ZZZX
AnimatedWiz

which of these is he going to shoot? my guess is wiz

[JacksonVirgo]

traffic analyst & doctor i guess, sure that's fine

is the traffic analyst not like, quite a large problem?

They are in the sense that they can clear people. We can the rolestopper to stop a clear on a particular player. The doc definitely did not protect RN N1 as they arr the one that speedhammered so they’re protected tonight in most worlds.

[the worst]

yeah cool.

do you think we should take the 50/50 and rolestop RN's most probable target, or should we just rolestop whoever would be the biggest issue if cleared?

[JacksonVirgo]

JacksonVirgo - claimed neighbour, not a good target
the worst - claimed neighbour, not a good target
Random Nurse - self
TheHoldSteady - the doctor he is asking to target him, not a good target


ZZZX
AnimatedWiz

which of these is he going to shoot? my guess is wiz

Mhm those are the two I figured too. They’re likely going to check Wiz considering he srs them but like zzz is easier to push so I feel in a completely random world it’s better to rolestop zzz but in an informed world maybe wiz but not sure I wanna risk it

[the worst]

this is a bit of a sticky f5.

rn played d1 well, and was lucky bc of the setup. the best shot we have is to disrupt his shot tonight. using a mailman rolestopper is going to mean that there seems to be two powers at play within the vanillas - a mailman, and some kind of role interference (e.g. roleblocker). so the POE is most likely going to become:
1: vanilla claim with a manipulative role, or RN (less likely);
2: a vanilla claim who lied about their vanilla claim

[the worst]

JacksonVirgo - claimed neighbour, not a good target
the worst - claimed neighbour, not a good target
Random Nurse - self
TheHoldSteady - the doctor he is asking to target him, not a good target


ZZZX
AnimatedWiz

which of these is he going to shoot? my guess is wiz

Mhm those are the two I figured too. They’re likely going to check Wiz considering he srs them but like zzz is easier to push so I feel in a completely random world it’s better to rolestop zzz but in an informed world maybe wiz but not sure I wanna risk it

do you reckon you could take a guess at our win %s in the three worlds? noting the third world can only be reached via coinflip

world 1:
- uncleared scum tw
- uncleared scum jv
- uncleared town wiz
- rn who has received a clear
- zzzx who has been cleared

world 2:
- uncleared scum tw
- uncleared scum jv
- uncleared town zzzx
- rn who has received a clear
- wiz who has been cleared

world 2:
- uncleared scum tw
- uncleared scum jv
- uncleared town zzzx
- uncleared town wiz
- rn who has received a clear

[the worst]

oops third one is world 3. sorry to present such an egregious typo to a virgo....

[the worst]

actually world 3 is typo'd all over but i'm hoping you get the gist, because i sure as hell don't

[JacksonVirgo]

1st world is probably the hardest to win. Wiz has one person SRing them, I have to bend over backwards a little tiny bit to argue Wiz over your own slot.

3rd world is clearly the strongest option we have. It leaves both wiz and zzz open but also makes the TA look bad due to multiple failed actions. N1 they checked the NK so if we get here we probably win nmw unless we just absolutely flunk

World 2 is the safer route. Lower risk, someone who already is in the 3 man PoE by majority of the players.

[the worst]

so in world two, are you confident that you can sell a me/zzzx world?
alternately, a worse case scenario, can i sell a you/zzzx world?

i'll take your advance and do my catchup geared towards needing to eventually find scum!zzzx. i will also need to immediately start establishing you as scum. i'll try and handfist it so that you come out looking pretty good when i come out looking like i'd already decided that.

[the worst]

oooo or i wait for RN's result, then antispew saying "i can't really be motivated rn because the scumteam is confirmed to me unless rn is scum"

that doesn't sound like much fun though

[JacksonVirgo]

so in world two, are you confident that you can sell a me/zzzx world?
alternately, a worse case scenario, can i sell a you/zzzx world?

i'll take your advance and do my catchup geared towards needing to eventually find scum!zzzx. i will also need to immediately start establishing you as scum. i'll try and handfist it so that you come out looking pretty good when i come out looking like i'd already decided that.

I definitely have a better chance of that than of you and wiz. It’s already been cemented that the idea of you, pass and zzz contain all the wolves and we’ll almost surely win just by chain limming all of them.

[JacksonVirgo]

Please automatically replace me if I reach the prod timer, I currently have completely no idea how to mislead the town :(

It's not over until it's over. I've created a situation where it looks like I'm setting up two mislims in you and Passenger. It's but a little speck of hope, but I need you to grasp it.

Also ur pred has done this

[the worst]

i'mma try my best

[JacksonVirgo]

And you will do amazing!!!

I'm off to sleep so hopefully nothing bad happens while I do.

Yes I'm sleeping at 7am, I work overnights

[the worst]

oof i'm sorry you're still on the overnight grind, i hope it was an okay shift.

catch you when you're back

[the worst]

my action failed, so on the balance of probabilities wiz is indeed vt

[biancospino]

Day 3 has started

[the worst]

Day 3 has started

i really like this colour

[the worst]

i think i've laid out an adequate case. i think it reads like something i have to do, more-so than something i actually feel. fingers crossed nobody buys it too much.

i also think RN is probably predisposed towards trusting one of us but i don't know which one of us yet

[the worst]

i think annie might be a better n3 kill than rn, if we go into n3

like for either of us

[the worst]

probably more-so for me, just in case RN is not actually lazy and can still catch you on the mailman role