Open 887: Coalition of Frogs (Game Over)

[implosion]

Implo, I feel like the ths nk was weirder than the drew nk: I asked earlier int he game why if scum wanted a low info kill, that it wasn't mer, and I think hero responded saying they'd never lim ths after the std flip (or something): what are everyone's thoughts on this?

Is the implication here that you think THS may have been a low-info kill by Merlyn because she wanted a low-info kill and couldn't shoot herself?

Iirc I felt pretty good about THS town but I don't really remember it being about his interactions with STD in a way that would mean to never lim him after the STD flip. But yeah, it's possible that my advocacy for THS as town made scum think THS wasn't gonna die this game so that it was a safe low-info kill or something.

Also in regards to your 48 hours question, at the time and at the start of day I was a bit like 'wtf is this lim', which I would have expressed, but actually a) I'd probably have gunned for an Ari lim, which would've been equally wrong and probably worse for town, as I don't think hero gets nk, and b) I can now see more of mers point about a 3p lylo. It's a shit lim to get info from, in hindsight.

I feel like any 3p eLo where everyone is a candidate for scum is always going to feel sort of starved for info. I think if Ari hadn't been killed I would feel really bad about the possibility of misreading her in particular in either direction just because of how kind of fraught the game has been.

I am inclined to believe that this is at least not being made up wholecloth.

If we look at the nks by looking at elos, I feel implo benefits slightly more from this elo, as he knows I don't hard tr mer and my activity dropped off massively, so am an easy push.

Mer would have to convince implo to vote me, which...mid, because again, activity. I hadn't posted that implo was making me feel some sort of way, because I hadn't read before the night phase, so from her pov getting me to vote implo would be a hard sell.

From my point of view (really a neutral point of view), if Merlyn is scum then killing Ari makes sense from her pov because I was indicating a lot of suspicion of you near the end of yesterday. If you're scum, maybe you'd have shot me for that reason? Or well, the reasons not to shoot me would be for wifom value or if you thought you could lim me. I think Ari was not very vocal about specific reads other than Hero yesterday? The Ari kill is definitely interesting especially with you opening the day saying you were planning to push her

[implosion]

Maybe I'm naive but i don't think hero pushes me in this elo? Liek mer said, hero mer Bella hero votes mer, probably.

Hero implo Bella is a cluster fuck for me.

Hmmm

What does this mean? You mean like, if ari had been limmed and merlyn had been killed? Why are you thinking about elo with Hero when Hero was limmed?

[Merlyn]

I'm re&reading your games, mer. Any you think stand out?

I think if you look at my scum games they tend to skew more lurky than I've been here, but I'm actually trying to change that so I wouldn't say it clear me here.

For town games, maybe the recent trustfall or one further back where I was supersaint? I think those are good examples of what I look like as town.

[Merlyn]

A couple of questions for Bella:

I don't think you answered this explicitly- how would you characterize your scum game?
If Implo is the scum here, what do you think your chances are of catching him?

[Merlyn]

For me this might really just come down to what I think is more likely: a straightforward game where Bella is the scum and she's been a bit absent and thus hard to pin down, or a more complicated game where Implo is a scum mastermind who voted his partner off in cold blood.

I guess Occam's razor says I should just assume it's Bella- it's really just because I do think Implo is a very good player that keeps giving me pause

[Ausuka]

Votecount 4.1

With 3 players alive, it takes 2 votes to eliminate. Day 4 ends in (expired on 2023-11-03 19:26:38).

Elimination Votes

Not Voting (3)

- Bellaphant, implosion, Merlyn

Flavour

[Bellaphant]

Wheb you were talking about would I have argued against, my mind went very hypothetical!

I'll read the rest after bedtime, first time taking the kids trick or treating
P-edit oh, trustfall, klick was in that, I did think I recognised your name

[Merlyn]

Whhaaaat first time?! Have fun!

[implosion]

For me this might really just come down to what I think is more likely: a straightforward game where Bella is the scum and she's been a bit absent and thus hard to pin down, or a more complicated game where Implo is a scum mastermind who voted his partner off in cold blood.

I guess Occam's razor says I should just assume it's Bella- it's really just because I do think Implo is a very good player that keeps giving me pause

I sort of have a similar point of view of you two except I'm nervous about Ari dying last night being you leaving me alive to lim bella. I think you've played a very solid game if you're scum (tbh Bella has too if she's scum, at least a solid early game). I think the overarching thing (or well, I guess this is directed at Bella in the event that I wind up with hammer/if she thinks Merlyn is scum) is the timing of various stances or the way Merlyn has interacted with the game. Like, I think her approach to yesterday feels town-motivated, I think the way she was voting StD doesn't feel especially like a bus. I don't really remember what she was doing on the day titus was limmed so might look more at that. In particular I think 601 is a really hard post to make as scum that would require a lot of really deep thought to craft as a post from scum who is currently bussing and is about to theoretically get towncred from that bus.

I think bella and I have been asked this but maybe you haven't, Merlyn - how would you characterize your approach to the game as scum?

[Merlyn]

I sort of have a similar point of view of you two except I'm nervous about Ari dying last night being you leaving me alive to lim bella.

I kind of see this point of view, given that you were open about sussing Bella yesterday, but Bella would be a dangerous choice for me as scum to keep alive as she's indicated for a lot of this game that she could see me as scum. If I were scum in this game I'm not sure I would chance that and go for Ari instead, who has been on the fence about me in a more neutral way and I could frame for leading the charge on Hero.

In general I've played two kinds of scum games on this site, very cerebral with a lot of posting and very lurky where I pocket early and try to always be the second choice instead of first for lim (with varying degrees of success). I also like to bus, so this game would definitely be in my scumrange. You've brought up 601 a couple of times now, and you're right that I was pretty annoyed with the game that day lol, I was feeling like I was an inevitable mislim for no good reason and maybe even being set up by a scum!Hero.

I think the best case I can make me for as town is that I don't know how I vote Hero yesterday as scum. He said multiple times he would never lim me, including before he flip flopped on similar vows. Even if he changed his mind, I could used that as ammo against him in a final three. I'd already gone on record as saying I thought he was town pretty strongly- as scum I don't think I deliberately court the heat by changing course there, I think I just vote Bella.

[Bellaphant]

A couple of questions for Bella:

I don't think you answered this explicitly- how would you characterize your scum game?
If Implo is the scum here, what do you think your chances are of catching him?

Sorry, if you had asked this before I hadn't registered it. Tbf my scum game has got a lot better recently: it used to be shit, then I didn't roll scum for like a year and then got like 4/6 scum games in a row or something. So, my new scum game is a lot more aggressive than I've been here: I think two good ones would be lost, where I was widely tr until I got an investigate on me, or ....I cant remember the name but rh9 was in it, and maybe Dr drew, and it came down to poe. Basically, I'm trying to say that being a lurksack isn't my typical scum game.

The second question I'm going to push back on a bit: I don't tend to 'catch scum ' and when I do, it's really vibes based. The team mafia game I was in, I caught gimli in their first post to me, voted datisi day one and told my team it was either lld/Ari (so, 2.5 out of three scum day one), but my confidence in my scum reads is often let down by me not always being able to process /why/. I did wonder if the high correlation between me subbing out of scum!datisi games was something to do with this overall sense of wrongnres without being able to explain why. Wats interesting here is that I didn't feel that agenda from their slot at all in the early game.

Also, I tend to town hunt, and especially when those reads are a bit /hot take/-y: I think I felt stronger about Dr drew this game than anyone did.

Most people who know me can often find me as town, too. I think the issue is I often think I'm being super clear when it doesn't come over that way, so people end up feeling more meh about my slot than maybe they should.

[Bellaphant]

Fuck me that was waffly, sorry, I'm tired. Kids loved it though, made me slightly grumpy.

Re skimmed trustfall and the only big difference I could see is that you seemed a bit freer with reads. I remember cqtching up and having to not break the talking about games rule when klick jumped with obv scum

[Bellaphant]

viewtopic.php?t=89664

[Bellaphant]

viewtopic.php?t=89613&hilit=Rh9

[implosion]

I kind of see this point of view, given that you were open about sussing Bella yesterday, but Bella would be a dangerous choice for me as scum to keep alive as she's indicated for a lot of this game that she could see me as scum. If I were scum in this game I'm not sure I would chance that and go for Ari instead, who has been on the fence about me in a more neutral way and I could frame for leading the charge on Hero.

I mean maybe, but if you're scum and relying on me voting Bella then it doesn't matter who Bella votes.

I think the best case I can make me for as town is that I don't know how I vote Hero yesterday as scum. He said multiple times he would never lim me, including before he flip flopped on similar vows. Even if he changed his mind, I could used that as ammo against him in a final three. I'd already gone on record as saying I thought he was town pretty strongly- as scum I don't think I deliberately court the heat by changing course there, I think I just vote Bella.

I don't quite follow this - the fact that he'd flip flopped on other such vows would be reason to believe he might flip flop on you, no? Especially in f3. I feel like someone changing their mind on something like that is something that in the modern meta is not actually seen as materially scummy. If anything that sort of thing is why I had been townreading Hero before I changed my mind. I don't think there was ever momentum toward Bella yesterday, so you'd have had to be the first one to go in that direction and I feel like there'd be a risk associated with that. I guess this isn't even an argument that you're scum, I just don't agree that this is a great reason to townread you.

Basically, I'm trying to say that being a lurksack isn't my typical scum game.

I've gotten the impression that you've been lurking due to RL reasons, which seems alignment-independent?

[implosion]

Also, I tend to town hunt, and especially when those reads are a bit /hot take/-y: I think I felt stronger about Dr drew this game than anyone did.

I vibe with this strongly, not in a way that necessarily means anything about your alignment but I also often get a lot of joy by getting a lot of mileage out of strong niche townreads. For me that was THS on day one but alas.

Is this something that you try to replicate in your scum game? You described your recent scum game as aggressive, would you be aggressive about handing out townreads like that as scum, or do you think your townread on Dr Drew should be a reason to read you as town in this game?

[Bellaphant]

Implo, I feel like the ths nk was weirder than the drew nk: I asked earlier int he game why if scum wanted a low info kill, that it wasn't mer, and I think hero responded saying they'd never lim ths after the std flip (or something): what are everyone's thoughts on this?

Is the implication here that you think THS may have been a low-info kill by Merlyn because she wanted a low-info kill and couldn't shoot herself?

Iirc I felt pretty good about THS town but I don't really remember it being about his interactions with STD in a way that would mean to never lim him after the STD flip. But yeah, it's possible that my advocacy for THS as town made scum think THS wasn't gonna die this game so that it was a safe low-info kill or something.

Also in regards to your 48 hours question, at the time and at the start of day I was a bit like 'wtf is this lim', which I would have expressed, but actually a) I'd probably have gunned for an Ari lim, which would've been equally wrong and probably worse for town, as I don't think hero gets nk, and b) I can now see more of mers point about a 3p lylo. It's a shit lim to get info from, in hindsight.

I feel like any 3p eLo where everyone is a candidate for scum is always going to feel sort of starved for info. I think if Ari hadn't been killed I would feel really bad about the possibility of misreading her in particular in either direction just because of how kind of fraught the game has been.

I am inclined to believe that this is at least not being made up wholecloth.

If we look at the nks by looking at elos, I feel implo benefits slightly more from this elo, as he knows I don't hard tr mer and my activity dropped off massively, so am an easy push.

Mer would have to convince implo to vote me, which...mid, because again, activity. I hadn't posted that implo was making me feel some sort of way, because I hadn't read before the night phase, so from her pov getting me to vote implo would be a hard sell.

From my point of view (really a neutral point of view), if Merlyn is scum then killing Ari makes sense from her pov because I was indicating a lot of suspicion of you near the end of yesterday. If you're scum, maybe you'd have shot me for that reason? Or well, the reasons not to shoot me would be for wifom value or if you thought you could lim me. I think Ari was not very vocal about specific reads other than Hero yesterday? The Ari kill is definitely interesting especially with you opening the day saying you were planning to push her

To the first bit, yea but also no? I guess i was saying I couldn't see why mer wasn't shot there but then the logical progression could well be coz she couldn't shoot herself, as you said.

The Ari stuff I feel. You are right about RL being the reason I'm not here, but I'm not gonna lie and say it wasn't a bit because I find fraught threads really difficult and both Ari and hero were being a /lot/ at times.

I don't massively agree with the statement 'all 3 are good scum candidates', because like I said, until day end you were hard town for me, so....I don't really know why you said this? It feels a bit contrived, same as 'from a neutral point of view'. Why do you think we are all 'good scum candidates '?

[Bellaphant]

Implo, we were in pyp together last year, and there were two whole days where people were desperate to lim mathblade for....being mathblade. I kept telling people he was town, and he was! Also, by the last day, I'd said I could give reasons to tr everyone but the two last scum. The tr thing is more indicative of my town game, the aggression in my scum game comes more from pushing scum reads and 'solving': I sometimes joke that my scum game looks townier than my town game, as with scum I feel more ....agenda based.

[Merlyn]

I mean maybe, but if you're scum and relying on me voting Bella then it doesn't matter who Bella votes.

I don't think you were so down on Bella that this would be a smart thing for me to do.

I don't quite follow this - the fact that he'd flip flopped on other such vows would be reason to believe he might flip flop on you, no?

When did Hero flip flop on a vow before the Ari one?

Especially in f3. I feel like someone changing their mind on something like that is something that in the modern meta is not actually seen as materially scummy. If anything that sort of thing is why I had been townreading Hero before I changed my mind.

I have no idea what the modern meta is lol.

I don't think there was ever momentum toward Bella yesterday, so you'd have had to be the first one to go in that direction and I feel like there'd be a risk associated with that. I guess this isn't even an argument that you're scum, I just don't agree that this is a great reason to townread you.

If there was no momentum towards Bella yesterday, then why would I be 'scum relying on you voting Bella' as quoted above?

[Merlyn]

In post 1247, Bellaphant wrote:
Implo, I feel like the ths nk was weirder than the drew nk: I asked earlier int he game why if scum wanted a low info kill, that it wasn't mer, and I think hero responded saying they'd never lim ths after the std flip (or something): what are everyone's thoughts on this?
Is the implication here that you think THS may have been a low-info kill by Merlyn because she wanted a low-info kill and couldn't shoot herself?

Iirc I felt pretty good about THS town but I don't really remember it being about his interactions with STD in a way that would mean to never lim him after the STD flip. But yeah, it's possible that my advocacy for THS as town made scum think THS wasn't gonna die this game so that it was a safe low-info kill or something.

What are you both talking about? It can't be Hero saying he'd never lim THS after the STD flip bc THS was the nightkill after STD was limmed.

[Bellaphant]

I'm trying to work out why ths was nked. Implo is saying that a few slots hard tr him, I didn't really see that at the time and just assumed it was a low info kill, where my q was why wasn't it you at that point, as you felt lower info to me. But if ths was more widely tr, then it makes more sense so looks less damning for you (the flip side of what Implo is actually saying to me, I guess)

[Bellaphant]

I guess my overarching point was all the nks feel weird, so does it point to it benefiting anyone? Like, it clearly makes sense from someone's pov (scum)

[Merlyn]

I don't remember THS being widely townread at all, but I"ll go back and look

[Bellaphant]

"I think the best case I can make me for as town is that I don't know how I vote Hero yesterday as scum" can we talk about this? I think getting rid of a loud voice is always helpful for scum?

P-edit, that's what I've been saying? Why do you think he was nked? Like, I don't even think it was to frame me, because i knew that two scum weren't in my pool of four people making shit choices, and hero has basically town cased then to me...

[Merlyn]

"I think the best case I can make me for as town is that I don't know how I vote Hero yesterday as scum" can we talk about this? I think getting rid of a loud voice is always helpful for scum?

If it's about getting rid of a loud voice, then what's the explanation for why he survived to D3?

I'm saying that there's never a good reason I as scum bring you vs. Hero.

Hero said he would never vote for me. So either he a) never votes for me or b) he goes back and his word and I have a great reason to vote him and convince the other person that Hero can't be trusted.

You on the other hand cast doubt on me for a good 3/4s of the game, it doesn't make sense for me to pick you for elo and lim Hero the day before. Implo is saying that he was doubtful enough about you yesterday that as scum it would make sense for me as scum to pick you and then go all in on convincing him. That's a big gamble from me as scum I think. I also don't think my actions today have been consistent with someone who needs to convince Implo you're scum.