Open 887: Coalition of Frogs (Game Over)

[Merlyn]

Yeah, I'm thinking there's no rush to put the hammer down on you, I don't know why if you're town and Bella or Implo is scum that they don't come in and end it. Cautiousness tends to be more towny. The other option is that you really are scum

Worth noting Bella hasn't posted since the E-1 happened. Honestly I also still want her on the table for today, I feel like I'd have a hard time not voting her in f3. I really don't think Ari is the play today. I feel like I really like the reasons I have to townread her. Like fuck, Hero gave a great reason to townread her in his post against me seven minutes before voting her >_>

Ay yai yai. Does Bella ever take Implo to the end after he said this?

how does implo ever come into today as town saying he were STILL pretty sure it was Bella and not even consider how odd that would be

[implosion]

I feel like Merlyn is trying to leverage looking townie by interacting in real time, which I haven't gotten an opportunity to do, so if you are still around Bella and have any questions I'm here for another ~hour probably.

[implosion]

oh hey that was my 14000th post. neat.

how does implo ever come into today as town saying he were STILL pretty sure it was Bella and not even consider how odd that would be

I never said this today. I said I was inclined to think it was Bella, and then I started digging in more to things; granted, digging into those things was making me lean more towards Bella, but I was definitely not sold yet.

[Bellaphant]

In around, I just feel a bit stuck! When you said your read change on me was slow, I mean it felt like it was one thing and then suddenly a different thing, so maybe you could explain that a bit more?

[Merlyn]

oh hey that was my 14000th post. neat.

how does implo ever come into today as town saying he were STILL pretty sure it was Bella and not even consider how odd that would be

I never said this today. I said I was inclined to think it was Bella, and then I started digging in more to things; granted, digging into those things was making me lean more towards Bella, but I was definitely not sold yet.

I think saying 'i never said I was pretty sure, I said I was inclined ' is kind of splitting hairs lol

[Bellaphant]

Also, not to be a dick, but where's your evidence that mer is this good at scum/would pull this?

[implosion]

I townread you on d1. I said in 829 that I could be convinced on you as scum but it'd be a hard sell. In 1110 that I needed to audit my read on you and then I tried to talk with you but you weren't around. I think the main reason it feels fast is just because I was pretty sold on the Titus slot as scum and then I needed to re-evaluate when that slot was town and I thought it was Hero over you and had various mixed feelings between the two of you (that I wasn't always talking about in thread but was sometimes) over the course of the day.

Also, not to be a dick, but where's your evidence that mer is this good at scum/would pull this?

I mean, I don't think I've played with her as scum so I'm not specifically familiar with her gameplay and I have a hard time really actually getting familiar with things from reading completed games. I think the vote on me is a going with the flow/opportunistic sort of thing - she felt like she could get away with it in the moment based on interacting with you and based on my rhetoric around her. She described her scumgame like this:

In general I've played two kinds of scum games on this site, very cerebral with a lot of posting and very lurky where I pocket early and try to always be the second choice instead of first for lim (with varying degrees of success).

And I think that this sort of in-the-moment cleverness is not really what she's describing here but in that sense it makes sense for her to think along those lines after describing her scum game differently (bc obviously scum aren't obligated to tell the complete truth).

To be clear if you mislim me here I don't really begrudge you. I think Merlyn has played a really good game. She just happens to also be scum here.

[implosion]

I think saying 'i never said I was pretty sure, I said I was inclined ' is kind of splitting hairs lol

Inclination is much weaker than "pretty sure". More relevantly you also said

not even consider how odd that would be

when I literally did consider in that post that it would be odd for Bella to leave me alive after I made that comment

[implosion]

Also, not to be a dick, but where's your evidence that mer is this good at scum/would pull this?

Like I get where this question is coming from but ultimately, I don't know, I think this kind of setup is the kind where it's entirely possible for someone to have a sort of break-out scum game, especially if she likes to bus (as she said she does). I also honestly don't think my scumgame is very good. I think I've been pretty far out of my scum range this game with things like the way my read on Hero shifted, the general way I've interacted with the game state, the way my reads worked on d1, etc. I think those are things I have trouble replicating as scum, I feel like if I were scum this game I would have been caught or suspected a while ago. It's really frustrating to have been correctly read as town for the first couple days and I feel like I was basically bound to be scumread after that just for being alive :\. That's probably a large part of why I felt like it was "3 viable candidates" going into today, because I feel like I'm being set up by being left alive the whole game after how d1 went. Like maybe Merlyn was always planning to push me in f3 and I'm overcomplicating things with the whole "she decided to go with you in the moment" thing

[implosion]

and yeah that's AtE, but etc. It's hard to provide hard evidence for something like "this player is capable as scum" when I don't know the player very well, I've played with her before but not much. But she is scum this game.

[implosion]

Anyway I'm heading out now but will probably be on more in a couple hours

[Merlyn]

I think the vote on me is a going with the flow/opportunistic sort of thing - she felt like she could get away with it in the moment based on interacting with you and based on my rhetoric around her.

I don't think anything I said somehow becomes 'less' or 'not valid' by being read not in real time. I would have had the same thought process on how I arrived at my vote whether there were five minutes or five hours between posts.

[Merlyn]

And I think that this sort of in-the-moment cleverness is not really what she's describing here but in that sense it makes sense for her to think along those lines after describing her scum game differently (bc obviously scum aren't obligated to tell the complete truth).

No one has to believe me on this, they can go see for themselves in my games that I'm not the mastermindy kind of scum.

[Merlyn]

I think saying 'i never said I was pretty sure, I said I was inclined ' is kind of splitting hairs lol

Inclination is much weaker than "pretty sure". More relevantly you also said

not even consider how odd that would be

when I literally did consider in that post that it would be odd for Bella to leave me alive after I made that comment

Okay, I'll stop arguing with you about 'inclination' being weaker than 'pretty sure' because it's such a silly thing.

I don't think you DID consider it, that's my whole point. You said, it would be odd for Bella to leave me alive and then never pursued the thought.

[Merlyn]

I also honestly don't think my scumgame is very good.

In the one scumgame of yours I believe found (which Bella was also in) where everyone is playing under psedeonyms, people marveled at how good you were as scum actually.

Like maybe Merlyn was always planning to push me in f3 and I'm overcomplicating things with the whole "she decided to go with you in the moment" thing

So my plan now was to bring someone you said you suspected into the endgame, the same someone who has sussed me most of the game, and always convince them to vote you? That's...an incredibly complicated plan.

It's really frustrating to have been correctly read as town for the first couple days and I feel like I was basically bound to be scumread after that just for being alive :\. .

and yeah that's AtE, but etc. It's hard to provide hard evidence for something like "this player is capable as scum" when I don't know the player very well, I've played with her before but not much. But she is scum this game.

Posting this here for future reference that good scum will just lie about emotions!

[implosion]

Honestly I think I’m letting this game get to me more than I should so I’ll respond to stuff that Bella wants me to but I’m going to disengage at least for now

[implosion]

I will say one thing which is I don’t want to make it sound like I actually have a good idea what merlyns plan was coming in today or w killing aristeia, I’m kind of shooting from the hip. In practice she probably had some reason I haven’t/won’t figure out

[Bellaphant]

HURT: merlyn
HEAL: implo

i saw that i have 1 notification from mala and i thought it was going to be her responding to the 1 question i asked her, but no it wasn't. yes i'm complaining for the sake of it.

anyway uhh. merlyn i'm starting to like less after someone pointed out that she hasn't really had that many reads (oh it was implo pog) and after reading that i can easily see her slot playing in a sort of quiet townie don't rock the boat scum play. implo feels townie. i liked the drew read and the merlyn read was a good catch. also i do have Thoughts on the drew/implo thing but considering the post right above me, i comment later

@ari, if you had to pick a coalition to form right now, what would it be?

also uh i will be pretty busy and confined to phoneposting for most of the day. this will likely not impact much but on the off chance it does i'm putting it out there. ok cool.

.can someone who knows more about the coalition meta discuss this unvote?

[Bellaphant]

Oh god, the wifom in this post.

Fuck, datisi is good

[Merlyn]

HURT: merlyn
HEAL: implo

i saw that i have 1 notification from mala and i thought it was going to be her responding to the 1 question i asked her, but no it wasn't. yes i'm complaining for the sake of it.

anyway uhh. merlyn i'm starting to like less after someone pointed out that she hasn't really had that many reads (oh it was implo pog) and after reading that i can easily see her slot playing in a sort of quiet townie don't rock the boat scum play. implo feels townie. i liked the drew read and the merlyn read was a good catch. also i do have Thoughts on the drew/implo thing but considering the post right above me, i comment later

@ari, if you had to pick a coalition to form right now, what would it be?

also uh i will be pretty busy and confined to phoneposting for most of the day. this will likely not impact much but on the off chance it does i'm putting it out there. ok cool.

.can someone who knows more about the coalition meta discuss this unvote?

Oh god, the wifom in this post.

Fuck, datisi is good

lol, it's true, either he took his partner off the coalition or he put his partner on

[Merlyn]

Bella, I'll be mostly around for the next couple of hours if there's anything you want to ask me

[implosion]

That post is a pretty great coincidence in terms of the fact that both of us are in it.

Obviously I am biased but the straightforward reading of that post in the context of how the setup works is that Datisi + Merlyn are scum together. The setup in principle rewards scum for distancing or even hard bussing during the coalition phase, because if there's only one scum in the coalition then it's harder for town to get a correct lim within the coalition.

There is very much wifom there especially since it's still earlyish in the day but it looks like Datisi was actually the first person to add me to his coalition, which I think he'd be pretty disincentivized from doing if we were scum together, particularly when Datisi himself was already being Healed by several people and so was likely to be in the coalition. In fact given that he was at that point being Healed a lot it's very likely that he basically figured he could solo the game if he was the only scum in the coalition (since he is Datisi and he at least seemed to be getting widely townread) and so he made a relatively early move to make sure it'd be the case.

[Merlyn]

The setup in principle rewards scum for distancing or even hard bussing during the coalition phase,

Datisi didn't show distancing or hard bussing towards me actually. He showed at most a mild distrust. Whereas Implo and Datisi do. not. interact. Even a little bit.

You don't have to take my word for either of these, go ISO us each with Datisi.

[implosion]

The point is he took Merlyn off of coalition and put me on it at a moment when it looked like he was going to be on coalition and therefore had sway over who would be on coalition with him. Doesn't matter if it was specifically distancing, or bussing, or how he was interacting with either of us. Actions speak louder than words.

Also, if Merlyn's take is that Datisi and I didn't interact at all, then I'd like to think that if I were scum with Datisi, we would interact a lot? Like, I don't think I'm especially *good* at scum but Datisi is very good at scum and I'd think we wouldn't be afraid of interacting with each other, if anything I feel like we'd do theater a good amount of the time. Whereas me not really caring about interacting with Datisi d1 in this game is entirely by design because I've historically been shit at reading him day one and good at reading him later, e.g. here, so I've learned to not really put a lot of stock in how I'm feeling about him early.

[implosion]

(Deadline is just shy of 29 hours from now, btw)