Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[ssbm_Kyouko]

formatting this is a nightmare

[Elements]

If Tomith is a rolecop/vanilla cop we have 3 or 4 clears right?
Tomith
Tomith's check
The other PR
The tracker/roleblocker clear if it exists

[Elements]

In either scenario if mafia have a rolecop there is no way to prevent the PRs from getting another clear/guilty tonight for a 4/5th clear

[Elements]

So if there's no Jugganaut we just win?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Step 1: Force any claimed roleblockers/JKs to target the same player again toNight because that player cannot strongman twice in a row, which means if any of our claimed RB/JKs are truly RB/JK, then they can clear their N1 target by targeting them again toNight.
Step 2: Eliminate Gamma because she cannot be cleared by any of the others and she has already claimed VT.

In the morning, if everyone survived, we start claiming roles (Imaginality claims before Elements because his claim can clear her, so if he tries to claim PR and Elements is the real PR then Imaginality is guiltied by his own paradoxical claim. Puff claims last.
>>>>RB!Imaginality - if someone else dies/if Imaginality survives and claims RB, this clears Elements (Last PR is either a babysitter or Rolecop!Thomith)
>>>>JK!Elements - if someone else dies/if Elements survives and claims JK, this clears Mizuki - last PR is a babysitter
>>>>JK!Puff - someone else dying/Puff Surviving clears ssbm_Kyouko - last PR is a babysitter
>>>>>>>>if a claimed JK survives (and there are no deaths)
>>>>>>>>>>>>it means strongman was the maf PR and they wasted it on N1 and we have 2 clears in 5p which leads to 1 clear in 3p or 2 clears in 4p if the NK is stopped.
>>>>>>>>>>>>This can get WIFOMed by scum electing not to kill but if that seems to be the case we will at least have our claimed PRs as 2 clears in 6p, and if scum tries to CC the babysitter then we can 1v1 them with a spare mislim available and mechanically win.
>>>>>>>>if a JK dies then the player that they cleared chooses the claim order and should claim last, so that mafia doesn't know (at the time the mafia claims) if the babysitter is already cleared. We then assume the babysitter is clear or 1v1 the claims if countered, because we have the mislim to spare and we kill both and mechanically win.
>>>>>>>>>>>>in this case we will end up with 1-2 clears in 5p, which best case nets us a cleared kingmaker in 3p ELO. Worst case we go to 3p ELO without clears but that's already our worst case if we miss twice

For what it's worth I've seen crumbs that lead me to believe we are not in the roleblocker/JK scenario anyways, and the above scenario is the worst of the three scenarios. I am fairly confident Thomith is a PR and am unsure whether Mizuki or Imaginality are the other one.

The other scenarios follow:
If mizuki is really a tracker then the only other PR that can exist is Thomith (because I'm claiming VT right now, it's already a little obvious from my push on imaginality that I don't have a clear on him). In this case scum can either have a rolecop or a roleblocker
>>>>Scum Rolecop: One of thomith/Mizuki dies toNight. They both target ssbm_Kyouko (not imaginality - this is explained later in the Imaginalty + Thomith PR scenario) and the surviving PR has a guilty/inno on ssbm_Kyouko
>>>>>>>>ssbm_Kyouko (cleared by the living PR) + Puff (cleared by Thomith) + Elements (cleared by Mizuki) + thomith/Mizuki are clear
>>>>>>>>leaves Imaginality guilty by POE of the remaining living players being cleared
>>>>Scum Roleblocker: One dies and one is blocked
>>>>>>>>Puff + Elements + thomith/Mizuki are clear
>>>>>>>>this is 5p with 3 clears and is a mechanical auto-win over 2 Days

If Mizuki is not a Tracker, then Thomith is either a Vanilla Cop or a Rolecop and the other Town PR is either a Doctor or Town!Roleblocker!Imaginality.
>>>>If there is a Doctor out there, the only target you should have tonight is Thomith. If scum have a roleblocker and manage to block the doctor with a good guess and kill thomith, we still have Puff as a non-doctor clear (because Thomith said Puff was Vanilla) in 5p and the doctor can claim at 5p to clear themselves. This is 5p with 2 clears and we have a spare mislim if the doctor is CCed, leading to a good 3P ELO with 1 clear (either the Doctor or Puff). Note this is guaranteed to be 2 clears because Thomith said Puff is vanilla.

It's possible that rolecop!Thomith found doctor!Puff and fakeclaimed Puff as vanilla because it would protect Puff, that could lead us to 3p with no clears if it's the case.

The bold shouldn't be discussed further so scum will still have to guess if this is the case.
If the last PR is town!roleblocker!Imaginality, you can clear Elements by targeting them again, Thomith has already cleared Puff, and Thomith just needs to clear me or Mizuki. Thomith can't target Mizuki in case she is the other PR from his POV though, so he should target me. In this case Maf has a rolecop and can't stop both of you from adding to the clears



If there is a

mafia roleblocker

they have to guess whether there is a doctor in the woodwork that is going to protect thomith, or if thomith and mizuki are both investigatives. we've covered that if thomith and mizuki are both investigatives, that mafia is in a bad spot because they each already have unique clears.

If there is a

mafia rolecop on the right (at 3)

, they are powerless to stop Mizuki/Thomith from a mechanical win - I'm not a follower and nobody else claimed it so I guess Mizuki could be if she wanted to be tricky and clear Elements that way - even so with only one scum left a follower can guilty the same as a tracker can. Also note that if Mizuki is a follower it only matters mechanically if scum has a strongman, in which case the last PR is a Jailkeeper, but the Jailkeeper that targeted Mizuki (Elements) can't actually be a jailkeeper that prevents Mizuki from getting a result by Jailing her again, because if that were the case, Mizuki would not have gotten a result N1.

If there is a

mafia rolecop on the left (at 9)

, they're unable to stop additional clears from coming in because we have at least one of {Thomith, Imaginality} as PRs that can clear more players. If it's Thomith + Doctor then Rolecop can't do anything to prevent Thomith from clearing me (because I've claimed VT, and the only way to stop Thomith adding a clear here is if Thomith targets the doctor and scum also kills the doctor by guessing them correctly. As long as Thomith targets me this can't happen since I'm not doc). If it's Imaginality and Babysitter, scum have no way of knowing that and probably have to try to kill Thomith (unless Puff is the last scum, he would know Thomith is a VT). Even so we would have Elements cleared if scum guessed it was Imaginality + Babysitter and Imaginality died.

If there is a

mafia strongman

, we're in the first scenario where we might end up in WIFOM territory if scum choose not to kill versus a Jailkeeper, but if scum choose not to kill we'll still have the babysitter and the jailkeeper/roleblocker as clears in 6p which is decent - in this case the babysitter might be able to swing us back to odds if they keep their intended target quiet, either by blocking the kill (5p 2 clears in case of wifom) or getting killed (3p where the JK is clear)

The TL;DR

Any doctor should be on Thomith
Thomith should target me
Mizuki should target me or Imaginality
Any babysitters (in case Thomith and Mizuki are both not PRs) should not act for two reasons: to prevent us from going straight to 4p MELO, and to prevent possible interference with the Roleblocker/JK clears, which from the Babysitter's POV, one will happen overNight.
Any Roleblockers/JKs (Imaginality, Elements, Puff) must agree to target the same player consecutively to clear that player in the event of the RB/JK's or another non-target's death
Thomith/Mizuki should never target each other

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So first off, I need to know if there are any objections, and if there are not, I need Imaginality, Elements, and Puff to commit to re-targeting the same players toNight

[Elements]

Sure, I can retarget

[ssbm_Kyouko]

In either scenario if mafia have a rolecop there is no way to prevent the PRs from getting another clear/guilty tonight for a 4/5th clear

If they have the rolecop on the right, yes (unless Mizuki is a Follower pretending to be a Tracker). If they have the rolecop on the left then there is a possibility that there is no doctor, which means Imaginality is a town Roleblocker, in which case they might kill Imaginality or you if scum guesses that there is a doctor that would save Thomith

[Elements]

But if there's a Roleblocker do we not have 4 clears which solves the game?

[Elements]

I mean if imaginality is a roleblocker

[ssbm_Kyouko]

the tl;dr

Any Roleblockers/JKs (Imaginality, Elements, Puff) must agree to target the same player consecutively to clear the targeted player in the event of the RB/JK's or a different non-target player's death

EBWOP for clarity

If there is a

strongman that holstered

amongst the RB/JK targets, they would also know that the player that claims to have RB/JKed them is not a real RB/JK, and they may be able to strongman shoot through one of the other targets. If this happens, in case I'm the target that gets strongmanned I'll say this now, RB/JKs should continue to target the same players in N3 I'm pretty sure.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But if there's a Roleblocker do we not have 4 clears which solves the game?

Assuming you mean a Mafia Roleblocker and not a town one, but in that case it could be that Thomith + an anonymous Doctor are the PRs in which case we have Thomith, doctor, Puff, and me clear tomorrow. The problem with that is I can die overnight, or Puff can be the doctor, or both, in which case we would have fewer than 4 clears depending on how the Night Actions shake out. If all of the RB/JK claims are fake though mafia is essentially boned

[Thomith]

Kyouko do you still want me to answer your question regarding the setup?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Mafia roleblocker versus Tracker and Vanilla cop though, yes we currently have 4 clears out of 7. One PR dies overnight and the other is blocked (scum are multitasking) and we move to 3 clears out of 5. So yeah we win in that case too. If Thomith and Mizuki are both PRs we win. If Mizuki is a Tracker then from her pov we have won

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kyouko do you still want me to answer your question regarding the setup?

cat's out of the bag but yes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

actually no maybe

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think you answering that question helps scum if they are the left Rolecop

[Thomith]

I'll be real I've crumbed my role as well so they may know already.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

As much as I'd like to know now I think you not answering is technically better
pedit: ok see your crumbs are the ones I was mentioning and why I was pretty sure we were not in strongman scenario

[Elements]

Rolecop?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yes, Thomith balked about the possibility of there being both a town and a scum roleblocker in the setup with a town!rolecop when I was talking about possible guilty results - I noticed on the reread

[Elements]

So puff is clear?

[Thomith]

I may as well claim since I gave it away I guess, which may have been stupid so I apologise if it does screw us over.

I am Town Rolecop.

As well as what Kyouko has mentioned, I crumbed on Page 10, because Town Rolecop is hour 10 on the setup clock:

not sure what to do here tbh

R

ight now I'm kind of in the same boat, I have some ideas of how I feel about most players, but also feel like I'm missing something that makes me confident to vote someone for sure.

C

elebloki and shaddowez should hopefully post soon, which at least will help me feel like I have some sort of a read on every slot

This is also why I have been hard defending Puff today, because I know they are Town, because the Mafia Goon is dead.

[Elements]

Dope

[Elements]

I'm roleblocker
Mizuki is clear