Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[imaginality]

@Thomith yes that was the post I was thinking of

[Alianna]

2.03

Votecount 2.03

imaginality (E-1): Puffalicious, ssbm_Kyouko, Gamma Emerald
Gamma Emerald (E-2): Mizuki, Elements
Puffalicious (1): imaginality

Not Voting (1): Thomith

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-12-06 12:48:37).

[ssbm_Kyouko]

UNVOTE:

I'm close to a breakthrough, just don't want an early hammer

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think we have a very strong mechanical play

[Puffalicious]

Cobb was at E-3
Mizuki voted post 303
Elements "tempted to E-1" 328
Mizuki posted, kyouko told Elements to put Cobb E-1
Elements voted Cobb 343
Mizuki called for Cobb to claim 353
Cobb claimed 354
Enchant hammered 355

Kyouko didn't post while Cobb was at E-1, but did call for the E-1 vote and if scum were planning to fakeclaim Follower it's definitely a foreseeable possibility that the fakeclaim would be followed by the real PR hammering. Plus in any case the discussion of Enchant's propensity to quickhammer had happened by then.

So I don’t think anyone on the wagon was caught by surprise and unable to hop off. Especially given there was half a day between 353 and 354.

So I'm back to thinking remaining scum is more likely in {Puff, Gamma} with a side chance of Thomith.

Of note Puff and Thomith were trying to get a counterwagon on me going, and then Gamma voted Enchant. I think Gamma as scum there, deciding not to bus Cobb, would be much likelier to jump onto my wagon which was at E-2 at that point. Voting Enchant seems too neutral in that position?

So:

UNVOTE: Gamma Emerald

I think I'm back to Puff.

VOTE: Puffalicious

Why do you think 2 scum would be more likely vote you? Cobb was being suspected the most and it would be more likely the second scum would vote elsewhere and not sheep each other while the other is also getting suspected.

- A

[Puffalicious]

On day 1 it looked like Cobb was more likely going to go over and I don't understand how you thought you had a likely chance on going over on day 1 because Kyouko and Mizuki both said they liked your catch up. I remember Thomith said something about you being wary of you and he said he was scum reading Cobb more.

- A

[Thomith]

I think a Cobb flip gives us a decent amount of information, and they still are my biggest scum read at the moment.

The imaginality reads list is the only thing throwing me for a loop here at the moment though.

This is the exact quote Puff is thinking of I think.
I don't see this as me attempting to start a counter wagon, I never voted you. I thought I was pretty vocal on Cobb being my biggest scum read for a while, I was just being wary because your (imaginality) scum reads seemed to be the 4 easiest pushes in the game, which is what gave me slight pause.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

prepare to be dazzled

[Elements]

prepare to be dazzled

I am very excited

[imaginality]

@Thomith You didn't vote me, you didn't vote Cobb either though.

Cobb was E-2 at that point. I think it's possible to imagine you, if scum, not wanting to look back on a likely Cobb scumflip but hoping others will pick up on the encouragement to join my wagon.

Cobb and Puff were already on me at that point. If one more person had joined I could see you (if scum) following up 329 by voting me to E-1. Meanwhile if (as actually happened) Cobb goes through you don't look as bad as if you'd been more loudly on a counter wagon.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I actually don't think this works, I forgot to consider if scum have a strongman that held their shot last Night

[imaginality]

On day 1 it looked like Cobb was more likely going to go over and I don't understand how you thought you had a likely chance on going over on day 1 because Kyouko and Mizuki both said they liked your catch up. I remember Thomith said something about you being wary of you and he said he was scum reading Cobb more.

- A

Cobb was on me
You were on me
If one more person had voted me (Elements say)
Thomith votes me (already expressing suspicion of me)
Enchant hammers because lol Enchant

Do I think I was likelier than Cobb at that point in time? No

Do I think it wouldn't have taken much for my counterwagon to go through? Yes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sorry to put you on the spot here Thomith but I need to know, do scum have a strongman that held their shot last night?

[imaginality]

I actually don't think this works, I forgot to consider if scum have a strongman that held their shot last Night

I'm interested to hear what it was anyhow, even if it's no longer as dazzly.

I think with scum apparently thinking Enchant was a PR it's not implausible they might have used their strongman shot if they have one.

[imaginality]

Sorry to put you on the spot here Thomith but I need to know, do scum have a strongman that held their shot last night?

??

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Thomith can confirm whether scum have a strongman if his claim is true, and if his claim is true we have very good odds here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

He's also widely TRed enough that if he is exactly the scum!strongman here and says he doesn't know, he cannot benefit from lying due to how the hypoclaims were made

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We're actually fine because thomith cant lie about it and gain

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Getting lunch bbl

[Gamma Emerald]

I don’t see how a strongman specifically holding their shot means anything

[Gamma Emerald]

I’ll be blunt, this setup is really hard for me to process, mostly because the only list of possible setups is put onto a circle which makes it hard to distill into a real list

[Gamma Emerald]

I also don’t get why the focus is Thomith here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I have examined all the possibilities (including ones where mizuki is a follower pretending to be tracker and where Thomith is a vanilla cop pretending to be a rolecop) and found a mechanical solution that in most cases leads to 3pELO with a clear, and in some cases leads to a mechanical autowin.

Thomith and Mizuki are the only hypoclaims that, if true claiming, can confirm whether scum have a strongman. Mizuki, if trueclaiming, can only be a PR with Thomith because I'm actually VT. so I'm asking Thomith, rather than Mizuki, because Mizuki might be a Follower pretending to be a Tracker. Regardless of Thomith's actual role, Vanilla Cop or Rolecop, he will know if he has one of those roles that scum do not have a strongman because strongman is not adjacent to either of Thomith's possible roles

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If scum have a strongman then my proposed solution for the scenario where the scum have a strongman does not hold up IF the strongman holstered N1. In my proposed solution, the roleblocker and jailkeepers will be leashed into re-targeting the same targets toNight, which would clear their target in some cases. Actually this kight not be flawed. I was about to say, the flaw is that if they holstered last night then they can use it toNight, but then if they had holstered last night they would not have killed of the real PR targeted them. This is fine actually, no need for thomith to answer

[Elements]

Does the roleblocker world not mess things up?