open 894: near vanilla (game over)

[JupiterXV]

wait but if I'm scum here and I target OWER n1, doesn't that mean I know that OWER isn't doc???
wait maybe I don't, I don't know

[JupiterXV]

i had an idea and then tried to figure out what it meant, but it makes literally no sense even to me

[tired person]

what was ur idea

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

@TP

one of my big issues with Jupiter/Black and OWER/Black is that I feel like the Jupiter interactions feel substantially more real than the ones Black has with OWER.

[JupiterXV]

what was ur idea

if i'm acum and i target ower night one and you protect him and then he slips doc, doesnt that mean i know for a fact that he isn't doc because there's no way he self-prots night one? but also i literally didnt know doctors couldn't self target and also i did believe owers claim so doesnt that mean i can't be the one who killed dann?

[JupiterXV]

i don't understand my own logic here

[JupiterXV]

but wouldn't I be able to rule out who doc was and shoot them?

[JupiterXV]

if i'm scum you protect ower i know ower isn't doc, i know bella isn't doc because she got self-sacrificial, that puts it between TP and dann and afrayyed actually claimed doc so i would know you're doc earlier on i think. but earlier on i thought doc was between dann/project so i cant be scum because.... i don't actually know why this rules me out as scum

[JupiterXV]

am i doing these mechanics things right?

[JupiterXV]

if i'm scum isn't the optimal choice to kill tired person here?

[JupiterXV]

oh right that's where i was going. maybe i'm stupid and my confidence is misplaced, but night kill can't be me since i would know who doctor is and i would shoot tired person over dann

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

oh right that's where i was going. maybe i'm stupid and my confidence is misplaced, but night kill can't be me since i would know who doctor is and i would shoot tired person over dann

ok but you thought doctor could self protect so the logic doesnt really work

[JupiterXV]

oh right that's where i was going. maybe i'm stupid and my confidence is misplaced, but night kill can't be me since i would know who doctor is and i would shoot tired person over dann

ok but you thought doctor could self protect so the logic doesnt really work

that's true haha
i'm going to be honest i'm just trying to defend myself here, i get it's kind of bad and the logic is stretched very thin and i don't think there's a way i can exactly convince people because it's like well how do I know what the scum night actions are lol
but quick counterpoint: what does TP gain from self-protecting? if i'm scum and everyone else is town, tp doesn't know i know that they're doctor. they just think that i think ower is doctor, so they put the protect on ower because ower is night kill baiting.

but idk i wouldnt know

[JupiterXV]

i only thought of this defense just yesterday and logged off and forgot about it so i dunno how good it is or if it like makes sense at all

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

by the way, Black, could you send me the links to some of your past scumgames? you dont have to but i'd greatly appreciate it, even one is fine

Open 885

Newbie 2116

These are my two most recently completed scum games. There's one in between these but I had to replace out halfway through due to some unfortunate IRL stuffs

thank you

did you actually read these?

if you did - what conclusions did you draw

[JupiterXV]

by the way, Black, could you send me the links to some of your past scumgames? you dont have to but i'd greatly appreciate it, even one is fine

Open 885

Newbie 2116

These are my two most recently completed scum games. There's one in between these but I had to replace out halfway through due to some unfortunate IRL stuffs

thank you

did you actually read these?

if you did - what conclusions did you draw

i'm pretty sure i talked about them. i skimmed 2116 and i commented that black seemed more aggressive there than she did in this game iirc ? i can't particularly remember

[JupiterXV]

Generally I think if it comes down to nothing else Titus is probably more likely to be scum than town because there's been nothing else to give me the impression that she's towny ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

I think my scumlean on shadow's grown a bit into a scumread mostly just cause I've gotten more suspicious of them btu also they're not here to defend themself

I also think I'm gonna gently let go of my null-scum read on Black. I think that reaction she made to one of my posts (#282 iirc) was pretty towny and I skimmed a bit through her scumgame (Newbie 2116) and there seems to be this very distinct tonal difference? Obviously the posts are same but I'm getting different vibes from Black in her scumgame and black here. Like it's same kind of content being pushed out but this Black seems more contributive and generally more towny while that Black is a bit more argumentative and blunt.

[JupiterXV]

found it

[JupiterXV]

obviously i ended up being wrong since afrayed (iirc?) found another scumgame (the one that black omitted) that was very similar to this one and black ended up flipping scum anyways

[OutWorldER]

if i'm scum isn't the optimal choice to kill tired person here?

oh right that's where i was going. maybe i'm stupid and my confidence is misplaced, but night kill can't be me since i would know who doctor is and i would shoot tired person over dann

ok but you thought doctor could self protect so the logic doesnt really work

that's true haha
i'm going to be honest i'm just trying to defend myself here, i get it's kind of bad and the logic is stretched very thin and i don't think there's a way i can exactly convince people because it's like well how do I know what the scum night actions are lol
but quick counterpoint: what does TP gain from self-protecting? if i'm scum and everyone else is town, tp doesn't know i know that they're doctor. they just think that i think ower is doctor, so they put the protect on ower because ower is night kill baiting.

but idk i wouldnt know

AK claimed on Day 5, theoretically the optimal play was killing AK/Shiki on N5, but scum didn't do it, since I think literally everyone thought it was a fake-claim (or hoped it was).

i don't see a reason why you couldn't have believed Dann was the doctor last night.

[JupiterXV]

i did think dann was the doctor last night actually

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if they're towny it ticks off my alarm bells because as scum they'd know enough to act towny and since i'm not particularly good with assigning reads it's easy enough for them to just slip past me. but then they could also literally just be town, and then i'm stuck paranoia'ing everyone i townread

Like this in particular just speaks to my soul

what's townie about this post

[tired person]

sorry for my abscence, i am rereading this day phase now.

Hi, I return. Apologies for the absence. Here's a wall of quotes I wanted to respond to while catching up

Spoiler: Quotes Wall

Not sure I agree with OutWorldER at 211 . In fact I don’t agree. Getting to the content I don’t agree that saying you would need a lot to switch reads is not town.

That wasn't the way he phrased it to me though. He said it would be a "pretty big swing to switch those reads right now" which reads to me like he's judging how jarring other townies would find his switch, not that he was dissatisfied with the evidence presented.

Right, in regards to catching up. I want to note in particular that OutWorldER's responses overall are giving me a strong tr on him, and as far as D1 reads go it's the most solid I currently have.
-SNIP-

Could you elaborate on why you're townreading me? If it's the strongest read you have, then I think you should be able to articulate it. Frankly, I myself aren't so sure what exactly I've done so far that exudes towniness.

I understand the scum reads on Jupiter

I think they have a posting style that is very stream of consciousness and somewhat performative and I tend to scum read that type of posting style a lot. But idk currently I feel that is more a sign of personality than a sign of alignment in this game

But like I *get* it

What, specifically, in Jupiter's posting allows you to make the distinction between alignment and personality?

Kurtapika > T3 > Black

these are dannflor approved wagons in about the order i feel comfortable wagoning them

What is your Black case, again? I'm not sure if I missed it while trying to read back up but I couldn't find where you give an exact reason for suspecting Black.

I'm kind of torn because I think Dann is a comfortable townread for me right now, but I also feel like Kurta's move onto Skygazer could be genuine, and the over-justification is simply a symptom of being in an unfamiliar meta. But even that said, they're a nullish read for me at best right now, voting low-content/low-activity slots is a very classic scum move to appear townie, and I'm general agreement with Dann here that the very diluted votes here and sheer amount of vanity votes is hurting Town's ability to read the game.

I'm going to VOTE: Kurtapika here to consolidate. I'm comfortable here or on shaddowez.

ok read what is in the spoilered quote box and tell me if you see something that doesnt make sense to you

i did find something that didn't make sense to me. looks like he may have tmi'd shaddowez as town.

[tired person]

i think you implied that you think it's jupiter but i am not sure if the only reason is sheeping dannflor or something else also.

mostly dannflor and nka - like why does outworldER shoot dannflor if dannflor's last words to the thread are "never kill outworldER"

like the only reason would be to lock in reads and he's worried dannflor will 180 the read again AND he is also highly sure the rest of you are too demotivated to try to overturn thread consensus.

ok yeah but why would i kill dannflor as scum im not as oblivious to NKA as to just.... openly kill sm1 who scumreads me ????? i mean maybe to make this exact argument but idfk man. (rhetorical question btw)

also posting is a pain on the ass on mobile so if i miss anything lemme know.

well sure its wifom but also If you believe Dannflor is going to be gunning for you and he's clearly the loudest voice in the thread then your best bet is to shoot him at night so he doesnt live to today and push you.

sure it looks bad for you but that's just kind of the price you pay because if you leave him alive and he hardshoves you you might die from that. I dunno how much you know about dannflor's meta to know about whether he's overstating confidence or bluffing or posturing in order to manipulate the nightkill - afaik you are a total n00b to this site and have not much experience with Dannflor so you wouldn't know if you can gamble that he's lying about reads - heck I've played plenty of games with Dannflor and I don't know whether his statement about OWER is geniune belief or some kind of gambit.

im also arrogant enough in my own scumhunting abilities that I might just ignore dannflor's read on OWER but i'd feel pretty shitty if i was wrong.

the nightkill points to you because it is the easiest nightkill for you to make.

Does OWER shoot Dannflor there or does he shoot Bella or TP and go into 4p? I really dont know?

Like maybe OWER thinks dannflor is the doctor for whatever reason ???? - like I guess if OWER is mafia and he thinks there's no way afayeed knott claims doctor like the way he did AND dannflor's townread of shiki has to do with Dannflor thinking that Shiki is pretending to be doctor to shield doctor dannflor?!?!? like thats a really far out there thing. I honestly dont know. Its really wild to me that scum even made that nightkill because if Dannflor is not the doctor then he is one of the

most

likely targets for being doctored and if you shoot into a doc protect there you get completely blown out many many times.

fwiw, i 100% thought dannflor was obviously the doctor and shiki was shielding him before i replaced in. and i was asking myself why did titus jail dannflor of all people. so it's entirely possible that outworlder had a similar read to mine.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

so I skimmed some OWER finished games for some meta comparisons;

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=2&t=91848&user_select%5B%5D=34889

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=2&t=91890&user_select%5B%5D=34889

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=53&t=88600&user_select%5B%5D=34889

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=83&t=86860&user_select%5B%5D=34889

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=52&t=84805&user_select%5B%5D=34889


They are pretty short and easy to skim so if you have a chance TP pls take a look and let me know what you think

Spoiler: I'm going to put my conclusion in this spoiler so you don't get biased by it before you read/skim them yourself

I think OWER's scum game is a lot more

controlled

and calm than his town games - his town games look more spontaneous/frenetic almost in the way he posts and far more emotion makes its way into his posting. I feel like his posting this game leans closer to his one scum game than his town games. This read is like 75% confbiased tbh and not that reliable because he doesn't have a lot of completed games and the ones he does have do not have a lot of posts in them