Mini 2320: Smuggler's Port II [Endgame]

[FakeGod]

Smuggler's Port II

Alive

1. Hu Tao, who was a
   Merchant
   ,
   survives
   to
   Endgame
   .
   
2. Roden, who was a
   Port Authority
   ,
   survives
   to
   Endgame
   .
   
3. Dunnstral, who was a
   Merchant
   ,
   survives
   to
   Endgame
   .
   
4. atsi, who was a
   Smuggler
   , was
   executed
   in
   Day 3
   .
   
5. HighPrincessErinys, who was a
   Merchant
   , was
   executed
   in
   Day 2
   .
   
6. SirCakez, who was a
   Smuggler
   , was
   endgamed
   .
   
7. Claptastik, who was a
   Merchant
   ,
   survives
   to
   Endgame
   .
   
8. Celebloki, who was a
   Merchant
   ,
   survives
   to
   Endgame
   .
   
9. ssbm_Kyouko, who was a
   Merchant
   , was
   executed
   in
   Day 1
   .
   
10. Gamma Emerald, who was a
    Tomboy Daughter
    ,
    survives
    to
    Endgame
    .

Vote Counts, and Other Links

1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7
2.0 | 2.1
3.0 | 3.1

Final Guess
Endgame

Spoiler: Setup

Setup

• Factions
  • Smugglers
    • 2 Smugglers
    
    
  • Merchants
    • 6 Merchants
    • Port Authority
    • Tomboy Daughter
  
  
• Day Phase
  • During the day, each player votes to execute as normal.
  
  
• Night Phase
  • During the night,
    every player
    (except
    Port Authority
    ) will choose to send a shipment of
    Linen
    ,
    Copper
    , or
    Wheat
    .
    • Merchants
      will send the shipment as picked, but each
      Smuggler
      and the
      Tomboy Daughter
      will send
      Tea
      instead.
    
    
  • The
    Port Authority
    will pick between
    Linen
    ,
    Copper
    , and
    Wheat
    to investigate.
    • The result of the investigation, including the
      type of the shipment
      , players who picked that
      shipment
      , and whether or not
      Tea
      was found in the
      shipment
      , will be
      publicly announced
      at the beginning of the day.
  
  
  Spoiler: Example Investigation

  

  
  

  Shipment Inspection

  
  
  

  The following merchants are identified as sending shipments on the ship marked for

  Wheat

  last night:
  

  
  Datisi
  Moment
  notscience

  
  
  The office of the Port Authority announces that upon inspection, Tea, a contraband item,

  has been found

  on the ship, and we will follow up in pursuit of justice, fair trade, and public health.

  
  
  

  Respectfully signed,

  the Port Authority.

  
  
  

  

  
  
  
• Additional information
  • Port Authority
    and
    Tomboy Daughter
    know each other's identity.
  • Smugglers
    may talk to each other at any point in the game as long as they are alive.
  • Smugglers
    may attempt to guess
    the identity of the
    Port Authority
    by PMing the mod at any point in the game before
    Night 2
    .
    • If they are correct, they receive a
      factional night kill
      in
      Night 2
      .
    • They may only attempt to guess
      once
      in the game.
  
  
• Win Conditions
  • If the
    Tomboy Daughter
    is executed or killed, then
    Smugglers
    win.
    
  • If at end of
    Day 3
    , there are at least 2
    Smugglers
    alive, then
    Smugglers
    win.
    
  • If 1
    Smuggler
    is executed, the remaining
    Smuggler
    must immediately make a guess publicly at identity of the
    Tomboy Daughter
    , and if correct, the
    Smugglers
    win.
    
  • Otherwise,
    Merchants
    win.

Spoiler: Sample Role PMs

You are aligned with

Merchants

.

You are the

Port Authority

. XXXX is the

Tomboy Daughter

.

You are the

Tomboy Daughter

. XXXX is the

Port Authority

.

You are aligned with

Smugglers

.

Spoiler: Ruleset

FakeGod's Mafia RuleSet

• ONE: FUNDAMENTALS
  • All site-wide rules apply. Read and respect them.
    
  • There is no personal communication outside the forum postings (regarding this game) unless your role specifically allows it.
    
  • Do not quote your Role PM or any private communication (either real or fabricated) with the moderator, co-moderator, backup-moderator, or fellow players. Paraphrasing your Role PM is acceptable.
    
  • Be courteous and respectful to all your fellow players and the moderating team.
    
  • Play to your Win Condition.
• TWO: DAY PHASE
  • Each Day Phase shall have a 8 days deadline.
    
  • Votes must use the VOTE: tag or they shall not be counted. Abbreviating someone's name is acceptable, so long as I can discern who you were voting for without trouble.
    
  • Unvoting is not required, but is much appreciated by the mods. If you control more than one vote, Unvoting will unvote all of your votes, unless you specify which vote you unvote.
    
  • Once you have reached a simple majority (half of all living players plus one) that person's fate is sealed and they shall be executed. Unvoting cannot change their fate.
    
  • If half the living players approve a No Execute (
    Vote: No Execute
    ), then no player shall be executed and the game shall enter Night Phase. If deadline is reached and no one has received a simple majority of the votes, no one shall be executed.
    
  • Once a player is executed the game enters twilight until I arrive and post a death scene. All players may continue to post during Twilight.
    
  • Please post at least once every two days.
    
  • I will prod by request.
    
  • A deadline extension may or may not be granted; just ask.
    
  • Votes and Unvotes shall not count in Twilight.
• THREE: NIGHT PHASE
  • Night Phase shall last two days.
    
  • All groups with Private Topics (PTs) will be able to converse during the Night Phase.
    
  • Any role or faction with night abilities may choose to use them by PM-ing the mod with their choice.
    
  • If no action is received, no action will be taken. All actions received after the deadline has passed will not be valid.
    
  • Night Action submissions will be accepted starting in the Twilight Phase.
• FOUR: CAPITAL OFFENSES
  • Do not quote your Role PM or any private communication (either real or fabricated) with the moderator, co-moderator, or backup-moderator. Paraphrasing your Role PM is acceptable.
    
  • There is to be no personal communication outside the forum postings (regarding this game) unless your role specifically allows it.
    
  • The following is a list of outlawed shenanigans:
    • Using invisible text, codes, cryptography, etc.
      
    • Editing your posts (if you have the power to do so)
      
    • Insulting other players
      
    • Quoting any PTs you may have access to
  • If any of these offenses are committed, I have the right to force-replace you from the game or modkill you.
• FIVE: MISCELLANEOUS
  • Feel free to address me in-thread, but if there is a large egregious mistake please PM me. Small matters like errors in the votecount can be posted in-thread.
    
  • I have the final say on any issue. I reserve the right to force-replace and modkill at my will.
    
  • This is a game. Have fun, and keep the game fun for other people. Stay civilized, please.
    
  • I have the right to edit this RuleSet at any time.

[FakeGod]

Day 1

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 1.0

Not Voting [10]

- Hu Tao, Roden, Dunnstral, atsi, HighPrincessErinys, SirCakez, Claptastik, Celebloki, ssbm_Kyouko, Gamma Emerald

With 10 alive it takes 6 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2023-12-07 16:00:00)

[Celebloki]

Hello fellow merchants!

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[Gamma Emerald]

Sup nerds
VOTE: Ssbm_kyouko
I expect great things from you

[ssbm_Kyouko]

well well well

[ssbm_Kyouko]

*clears throat*

[Celebloki]

Can I interest anyone is my fine artisanal wheat, fine linens, or purest copper ingots?

[Gamma Emerald]

btw I interpret the win conditions as saying that if 1 smuggler is voted out and the other fails to guess the Tomboy Daughter, town wins, is that correct?

[FakeGod]

btw I interpret the win conditions as saying that if 1 smuggler is voted out and the other fails to guess the Tomboy Daughter, town wins, is that correct?

Correct.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game

Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.

Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.

I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I suggest the TD ships Wheat because you can't spell wheat without 'tea'

[Celebloki]

It seems reasonable, but there is a chance (albeit very small) that this could result in scum finding out who the daughter is. Specifically if say everyone happens to choose Linen and the Port Authority also chooses Linen. Only the Tomboy Daughter and maybe scum depending on where they selected will be off the list.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

1/64 chance of 5 Merchants randomly ending up on the same one of Linen/Copper, yes. In this case the inspection choice doesn't matter because scum either sees a full shipment or an empty one.

[Gamma Emerald]

>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game

Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.

Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.

I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way

Does this account for TD not doing a shipment?

[Gamma Emerald]

I mean PA not TD lol

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yes, see here:

(10 players total

-2 for PRs

-2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5

the -2 for PRs is the TD and the PA. Basically this assumes we eliminate a Merchant on D1 because otherwise we pretty quickly either win or lose depending on if we hit scum on D1 or if we hit the TD on D1

[Celebloki]

...

Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.

I think this is the most likely scenario, and more specifically that there would be 1 scum on the shipment. I feel like the smugglers would basically have to split across linen/copper. Choosing one or hiding on wheat means potentially clearing everyone that chooses whichever one they don't choose. And assuming the merchants are split decently enough, they still have the task of guessing the TD from a decent pool.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The biggest benefits of this are:
By designating Wheat for the TD we can prevent the TD from accidentally being revealed during a shipment.
By designating Linen and Copper for everyone else and not discussing what we will ship in thread, scum have no way of trying to discern which player's shipments were not checked by the PA, which could lead scum to getting clues as to who the TD is.

This just hides the TD in the best way.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also we only need to catch 1 scum to win so if they split up there is no wifom as to whether there was 1 or 2 scum on the inspected shipment, like there would be if this was the normal wincon of eliminating

all

threats. We just have to eliminate on-shipment if it contains tea and off-shipment if it doesn't.

[Gamma Emerald]

Question is do we want to try to gather 2 nights of info or just go off of one

[HighPrincessErinys]

Hello! Tis nice to finally have work again after that

horrible

business with the HMS Mutiny... This one sees we already have a gameplan on how to deal our little smuggler problem, ey? And you, Gamma! How've you been after the Mutiny?

VOTE: SirCakez

[Gamma Emerald]

I’ve been vibing

[Roden]

I'm pretty sure the breaking strategy here is to just give ourselves triple Masons

I think Kyouko's plan comes from town though

[Roden]

VOTE: Dunn