open 896: describing conker (game over)

[Skygazer]

votecount 3.03

Meuh (1) - Afrayed Knott

not voting

(4) - Dannflor, fireisredsir, shiki, Meuh

with five alive, it takes three to leave las vegas. day three ends in (expired on 2024-01-05 20:30:00).

mod notes:

[Afrayed Knott]

I’m not sure but it seems pretty weak form my POV. Almost like she was tentatively keeping away from engaging with Black.


Why would that be, firstly from a scum POV then a Town POV?

looking at it there are a few more posts than that that weren't quotes or anything because in real time but not particularly much

i assume it's simply because aristeia and black were only both active during a couple windows and black was townreading aristeia so less reason for her to engage aristeia at length and! no reason for aristeia to really engage black because then more chance for her to see she wasn't town with little benefit as she was already townreading her

not going to go much into the possible scum pov because i know she wasn't (though it'd likely be very simply they did not see a beneficial opportunity to do so in the limited time black was here)

Agree, but at the time Black didn’t know she was subbing out, so maybe think about it from that angle. You’re making your assumption based on that premise, one which did not exist at the time.

[Afrayed Knott]

VOTE: Meuh

has felt like you wanted to fold this hand for a while just can't figure out if because you were unsure or because position pretty doomed

so hard to see process

like if you're town then my worry is that you're miseliminated or misvote me at some point thus my approach here

if you're a scums the worry is that you aren't eliminated - like the path for scum!you to get me eliminated here pretty unlikely i think

Took me a while to understand what you were saying here. But ok. Again I’m basing my decision on the lack of interaction between Ari and Black, and Meuh’s somewhat lack of drive in the thread to actually scumhunt. That’s how I am seeing it.

[shiki]

I’m not sure but it seems pretty weak form my POV. Almost like she was tentatively keeping away from engaging with Black.


Why would that be, firstly from a scum POV then a Town POV?

looking at it there are a few more posts than that that weren't quotes or anything because in real time but not particularly much

i assume it's simply because aristeia and black were only both active during a couple windows and black was townreading aristeia so less reason for her to engage aristeia at length and! no reason for aristeia to really engage black because then more chance for her to see she wasn't town with little benefit as she was already townreading her

not going to go much into the possible scum pov because i know she wasn't (though it'd likely be very simply they did not see a beneficial opportunity to do so in the limited time black was here)

Agree, but at the time Black didn’t know she was subbing out, so maybe think about it from that angle. You’re making your assumption based on that premise, one which did not exist at the time.

well no not really making that assumption based on time stamps of when they were posting when they were both here and then black was gone and the rest is based on black’s stance towards aristeia and how i assume aristeia would play around that

right like if i asked you why you haven’t been interacting with dannflor/fireisredsir/meuh for the past couple days the answer is pretty apparent yeah

like there were limited windows and there is some interaction in those windows but aristeia wouldn’t have great incentive to engage black since she was already townreading her

[shiki]

VOTE: Meuh

has felt like you wanted to fold this hand for a while just can't figure out if because you were unsure or because position pretty doomed

so hard to see process

like if you're town then my worry is that you're miseliminated or misvote me at some point thus my approach here

if you're a scums the worry is that you aren't eliminated - like the path for scum!you to get me eliminated here pretty unlikely i think

Took me a while to understand what you were saying here. But ok. Again I’m basing my decision on the lack of interaction between Ari and Black, and Meuh’s somewhat lack of drive in the thread to actually scumhunt. That’s how I am seeing it.

also if ever there’s something you’re not understanding please ask me to try to restate it is very frequent occurrence for me like a lot of my language patterns here have developed for exactly this reason - to try to be more clear

are those two separate thoughts or somehow intertwined?

[shiki]

also could you look at meuh’s unvote of oopsiedaisy i pointed out earlier and then meuh’s response to the oopsiedaisy wagon going back to e-1 a little later and let me know what conclusions you draw from that? or like, what you think scum!her would have been doing there?

[Afrayed Knott]

I’m not sure but it seems pretty weak form my POV. Almost like she was tentatively keeping away from engaging with Black.


Why would that be, firstly from a scum POV then a Town POV?

looking at it there are a few more posts than that that weren't quotes or anything because in real time but not particularly much

i assume it's simply because aristeia and black were only both active during a couple windows and black was townreading aristeia so less reason for her to engage aristeia at length and! no reason for aristeia to really engage black because then more chance for her to see she wasn't town with little benefit as she was already townreading her

not going to go much into the possible scum pov because i know she wasn't (though it'd likely be very simply they did not see a beneficial opportunity to do so in the limited time black was here)

Agree, but at the time Black didn’t know she was subbing out, so maybe think about it from that angle. You’re making your assumption based on that premise, one which did not exist at the time.

well no not really making that assumption based on time stamps of when they were posting when they were both here and then black was gone and the rest is based on black’s stance towards aristeia and how i assume aristeia would play around that

right like if i asked you why you haven’t been interacting with dannflor/fireisredsir/meuh for the past couple days the answer is pretty apparent yeah

like there were limited windows and there is some interaction in those windows but aristeia wouldn’t have great incentive to engage black since she was already townreading her

Got you, but you are hopefully only seeing one thread. If they were/are partners then they have another thread. And still the lack of posting between them is again driven by the fact that at the time they were playing together under the impression they would both stay in the game. So time to ‘cover their tracks’ so to speak. Yes ok its all hypothesis but I think its an angle that exists

[Afrayed Knott]

The whole interaction around daisy and the vote upvote are strange. She votes and says she wants to ‘poke here’ then invites as Ari starts to get some pressure. This is rather interesting

I'm kind of concerned about how universal the feeling the bad feelings on Ari have been, but I definitely don't adore her recent posting

[Afrayed Knott]

Edit BWOP on my phone

The whole interaction around daisy and the vote

unvote

are strange. She votes and says she wants to ‘poke here’ then

unvotes

as Ari starts to get some pressure. This is rather interesting

I'm kind of concerned about how universal the feeling the bad feelings on Ari have been, but I definitely don't adore her recent posting

[Afrayed Knott]

She doesn’t even look at Daisy from what I see. Then her tongue in cheek comment about her and Daisy being partner. It’s nothing probably

[Meuh]

I need to properly catch up (maybe tomorrow?) But my brain is currently telling me it's just Fire

[Meuh]

Fire's posting has been like vaguely good and I liked his thought process surrounding me, it felt like a genuine thing, which made me townread him a lot more
But then like that thought process was a broad meta on me and not some read he formed here, and like it's not too difficult to apply that template?
Which wouldn't be bad if the rest of his posting was town indicative but like... is it? Is it really?
When I played against scum Fire, vaguely good posting kept him off my radar until it was too late
I've been able to confidently call Fire town before, and I can't do that here

[Meuh]

Spoiler:

VOTE: ari

i feel like all of the small hood gives us info on a flip especially if they're scum and i don't really get why "no info???" keeps being presented as a counterargument here

elements probably gives the most info of the three so thats definitely a wild take

my heart says that was tmi-ing elements as town actually because i cannot understand how someone could think a red elements flip wouldn't give us info

VOTE: daisy

are we only allowed to flip someone whose potential townflip would achieve something

like we're trying to find scum here

info is not our primary goal

That was a fake read list to see how shiki would react

hm

what did you learn from shiki's reaction

UNVOTE:

wanted to go look at the elements/daisy scumgame again

came out of it thinking there's more similarities here for elements than for daisy

elements/knott imo

this was right maybe

i think the funniest solution to this game is, like, afrayed/elements and that's why it took ages for the game to actually start/neighborhoods to be sorted, and both of them lack a lot of meta information that we've been discussing here and that's why things seem wack

ayy

VOTE: elements

i didn't expect to be voting el either but im looking at more meta and i think i gave them a pass too easily

i think elements is just pushing wherever is convenient at the time i don't think they have real reads

and if their reads get called out as not making sense they just say "oh that was fake for a reaction test" and then make no indication that they actually cared about making reads off the reaction

idk where their scumread on me went it just disappeared when there wasn't pressure on me anymore. idk even where it came from in the first place

i don't even think that should be clearing

id be alright with a switch to ari though

if you and elements are both voting meuh and the choice is between ari and meuh id rather vote ari

im still kinda hung up on thinking it's elements

if you and elements are both voting meuh and the choice is between ari and meuh id rather vote ari

to be clear this was meant to be a line of logic not a statement of read preference

although that's also my read preference

lim el

[Meuh]

Am I crazy or is that just partnered

[Meuh]

i think elements is just pushing wherever is convenient at the time i don't think they have real reads

and if their reads get called out as not making sense they just say "oh that was fake for a reaction test" and then make no indication that they actually cared about making reads off the reaction

idk where their scumread on me went it just disappeared when there wasn't pressure on me anymore. idk even where it came from in the first place

The most substantial read here is a playstyle oriented thing that I'm not sure town Fire would be comfortable with throwing out there as the basis of a read
Townies are disjointed in their reads all the time, does this make Elements scum?
This feels shallow

[Meuh]

In terms of big hood:
Meuh is golden town because she's isn't scum with any of the small hood.
Afrayed has been chilling but I don't think that's an awful thing considering their overarching playstyle.
Shiki is a neutral read. Double replacement slot irks me but nothing they've done has been egregious.
Dann has fallen down cause of the recent jabbing at me. I still think Dann might be town tho?
Fire has sat on me the whole game and surprise surprise he's back again because he's too scared to rock the boat and upset his standing with other players. Most survivalistic/scummy of the lot imo.

My first thought when Daisy died was "oh shit I'm being setup as a mislim" (Large part of what made me post this:)

Ooh boy

But like, Daisy was also the only person casting significant doubt on Fire
Scum benefit from a Daisy death because then I'm a free mislim, but Fire just like, gets to win

[Meuh]

i think elements is just pushing wherever is convenient at the time i don't think they have real reads

and if their reads get called out as not making sense they just say "oh that was fake for a reaction test" and then make no indication that they actually cared about making reads off the reaction

idk where their scumread on me went it just disappeared when there wasn't pressure on me anymore. idk even where it came from in the first place

The most substantial read here is a playstyle oriented thing that I'm not sure town Fire would be comfortable with throwing out there as the basis of a read

Or like more specifically, the basis for a wagon and a lim, and the basis to pivot away from Ari

[Meuh]

Doesn't help that any other solution to the game just kinda feels wrong

[fireisredsir]

hi umm i haven't thought about this game in like a week. ill catch up later tonight

my instinct of a starting point rn is that dann is town bc i do not think the way him vs ari went down is partnered. the general structure of it maybe but i think when ari busses (and she does enjoy bussing) she tends to have like a convincing case. i think thats something she's pretty good at as scum. and just a lot of little things with their interactions didn't feel like they made sense from partners

[Skygazer]

prodding Dannflor

[fireisredsir]

what are your thoughts on ari arranging the hoods in the way she did if she’s partnered with Afrayed?

You were using that as a defense earlier on D1

still think it'd be weird for her to have done so in this way and it's the thing that makes me feel the uneasiest about an afrayed knott/aristeia pairing right now

because sending a newbie to the large neighbourhood and then pushing them and playing in the way aristeia did in general (small neighbourhood doesn't matter etc) really does seem like a lot of added pressure for partner and the split makes more sense for other partners as i said - really for any of the other three of you as you're all strong scum players - but that doesn't make the other factors go away and were afrayed knott an experienced mafia player i think aristeia's play around the slot would make a lot of sense for a partner

if they are partners i kinda wonder if aristeia asked which neighbourhood afrayed knott preferred and afrayed knott chose the large neighbourhood

i think aristeia definitely chose ydrasse to go with her obviously

but then look at the situation we are currently in which is also more or less the situation aristeia was largely playing towards throughout the game it's just a weird situation to throw a newbie into yeah? just don't know how to weigh that against other things

does it change your opinion if afrayed is a relatively experienced mafia player and is perhaps underselling his experience with the "im still learning" thing in 242 etc

[fireisredsir]

I wanna know where fire is at after his top scumspect died

hello!

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Meuh

has felt like you wanted to fold this hand for a while just can't figure out if because you were unsure or because position pretty doomed

agreed and the development of it seems off

[fireisredsir]

Am I crazy or is that just partnered

idk why you think i go out of my way to make myself look worse by saying that i would switch to ari, knowing that it is likely to happen, only to then announce that i have cold feet once it does happen and then encourage everyone to switch away

like on the list of possible ways for me to play that situation, that response is so far down filed under "intentionally look scummy around a partner in the hopes that people later decide i wouldn't be that dumb" which is a path i very rarely attempt because it doesn't really work

i don't even expect this to be convincing but i still feel compelled to say it

[fireisredsir]

i think elements is just pushing wherever is convenient at the time i don't think they have real reads

and if their reads get called out as not making sense they just say "oh that was fake for a reaction test" and then make no indication that they actually cared about making reads off the reaction

idk where their scumread on me went it just disappeared when there wasn't pressure on me anymore. idk even where it came from in the first place

The most substantial read here is a playstyle oriented thing that I'm not sure town Fire would be comfortable with throwing out there as the basis of a read
Townies are disjointed in their reads all the time, does this make Elements scum?
This feels shallow

to be honest i think it was a little shortsighted of me/forgetting what setup we're playing in a way

bc like my reaction to dann's 1359 was to roll my eyes and be like "ok but we can't let them get away with it if they are scum"

but in hindsight yeah we could have bc the small hood was going to get resolved either way so they were either gonna get towncleared or limmed later. so, i probably should have discounted that aspect which was admittedly influencing my choice of where to vote, but i didn't really think about it rationally at the time



still though i think it's incredibly generous to refer to "they are blatantly fabricating their reads and don't appear to have real thoughts to support the directions they're moving" as "a playstyle oriented thing"

i thought elements' play was scummy. possibly town playing in a scummy way, but more likely just scum. and at the point where ari came back and did some really good posting it was enough to tip me over the edge towards thinking elements was more likely to be scum

and you agreed at the time (even agreeing that their thoughts were made up 1473) so i don't get your point here anyway. you didn't even really give reasoning when voting. why is mine too shallow?