Open 908: Aureal Is Hoarding All The Game Names | Game Over

[Dannflor]

implosion/ceejay feels unfortunately likely

[the worst]

implosion is either the messiah figure this town needs to root out the deepwolves, or he is scum, and I'm yearning to discover which

recent posts feel townplosion-ey but I've also misread scumplosion so kind of have a lot more boxes to tick before I'm comfortable

[Dannflor]

kinda weird to call him a messiah given you are the deepwolf he is pushing

[the worst]

if I'm a wolf I ain't that deep I'm moreso referring to his core trait this game being refusal to accept any form of status quo

also would argue Black is the Holmes to my Moriarty here tbf

[the worst]

Mori-fart-y

[the worst]

Do u remember when someone made up the rumour that NM's reads were significantly better than random to keep him alive & win a scumgame and then several players (including me) perpetuated that rumour for months?

I guess I'm trying to decide what's up with NM's Klick read how do u read Klick?

[implosion]

ya I've seen multiple conversations which felt mutually earnest and I do suspect at least one underperforming player is scum. that happens quite often. i'm astonished that ur astonished.

I'm specifically astonished at you saying that "probably both" scum are in those 3 players. Unless you have a different definition of "probably" from me, that is a wildly strong claim.

[implosion]

that's a reasonable characterisation! my votes are projecting more confidence than my heart feels

well like i just said your words are projecting a hell of a lot of confidence too so i'm not really sure how exactly i'm supposed to be figuring out how confident you're actually claiming to be

The nm slight gut town is just for the structure of the posting spate, the commenting on almost every post -> "i'm exhausted" after like 6. Again, very weak, but I think the bruntness of "I'm exhausted" maybe comes from town more often

[the worst]

ya I've seen multiple conversations which felt mutually earnest and I do suspect at least one underperforming player is scum. that happens quite often. i'm astonished that ur astonished.

I'm specifically astonished at you saying that "probably both" scum are in those 3 players. Unless you have a different definition of "probably" from me, that is a wildly strong claim.

you also acknowledge that my level of confidence in that read is simultaneously intense and non-committal which I agree with

you're telling me you've never had multiple conflicting thoughts about a situation at the same time and started explaining one then realising you can't remember if you actually even like that thought half way through the explanation?

that's like my quintessential mafia experience

[the worst]

that's a reasonable characterisation! my votes are projecting more confidence than my heart feels

well like i just said your words are projecting a hell of a lot of confidence too so i'm not really sure how exactly i'm supposed to be figuring out how confident you're actually claiming to be

The nm slight gut town is just for the structure of the posting spate, the commenting on almost every post -> "i'm exhausted" after like 6. Again, very weak, but I think the bruntness of "I'm exhausted" maybe comes from town more often

if it was easy, I wouldn't be very exciting to play mafia with :p

I'm really struggling to see "I'm exhausted" as anything but a joke I'm surprised you aren't latching onto his apparent instant townread of Klick

[implosion]

why is cjv in your scumpool? I agree w you on Klick and like, vaguely agree with a bunch of your reads

I didn't really like 55, not as strongly as Klick but I thought Klick's point wasn't bad (as I mentioned) and 55 as a whole feels maybe generically like an early game scum post. I don't really understand the reasons he's being called town, in particular I think black gave a reason that I couldn't really parse. And like, I don't really have any reason to take him out.

This seems like a weird way to phrase this question when he's also in your scumpool; do you think he oughtn't be in mine or is it surprising to you that he is?

[implosion]

I'm really struggling to see "I'm exhausted" as anything but a joke I'm surprised you aren't latching onto his apparent instant townread of Klick

why would i latch on to this

[implosion]

you also acknowledge that my level of confidence in that read is simultaneously intense and non-committal which I agree with

you're telling me you've never had multiple conflicting thoughts about a situation at the same time and started explaining one then realising you can't remember if you actually even like that thought half way through the explanation?

that's like my quintessential mafia experience

I'm a mathematician. I see you saying "probably 2 scum are in these 3 players" and I read this as you saying that you think there is a >50% chance that a proposition is true, when that proposition has a baseline probability fypov of ~10% (and, fmpov assuming you're town, the baseline probability of it being correct goes down to <5%) and that's more confidence than I have ever viscerally felt for anything on day one of a forum mafia game frankly, or maybe on any day

[implosion]

implosion/ceejay feels unfortunately likely

I asked you last page what your current take of me is; care to elaborate?

[Klick]

I think there's at least one scum and probably two in [nm, implo, cjv] and maybe that's in reverse order? I'm also probably like, incorrect, because this game has a number of skilled scum players in it

I find it kind of astonishing that you'd write this sentence honestly. Like the hedging sure but like there's absolutely no way you actually have any confidence that is anywhere significantly above random in that proposition. Do you just say random shit as town? Do you genuinely think that the lurkers in this game are significantly >rand to be scum? Because I at least have seen very little from the thread as a whole that makes me feel like it's lots of townies waiting for the lurker scum to show up (granted I have access to the info that I'm town but still)

I struggle with this. It feels like a natural conclusion for 'scum is probably concentrated in the lurkers' to follow from 'I have townreads on several active players'

[Klick]

tbf the entire basis of the deepwolf meme is that dann's scumrange is quite hard to define and I'd argue he relatively rarely leaves it especially on day one

I don't think someone needs to leave their scumrange to be leaned town on and I think black is the only person I've seen who is like, outright hard townreading dann atm

something something paranoia something

I moderately townread Dann
I think Dann has definable goals as scum, it's just at a level deeper than most are willing to go

If Dann is scum then I think he's actually limiting himself in this game by mostly expressing things that look like direct opinions

[Klick]

implosion/ceejay feels unfortunately likely

Yeah that sounds about right

[Klick]

if I'm a wolf I ain't that deep I'm moreso referring to his core trait this game being refusal to accept any form of status quo

This is exactly how I would describe his play in our last game together, where he was scum and both him and his partner were locked out fairly early

[Klick]

I feel like I'm playing off duck a lot
I can't really tell what this means but it feels significant

[Klick]

Political Clout
Dannflor

the worst
Not_Mafia
implosion
Black

Bingle

ceejayvinoya

I don't think my reads are very meaningfully different from this atm; implosion has moved down to leaning scum, Bingle is leaning town, if the scumteam isn't {ceejay, implosion} then I think {N_M, Black, duck} are the most reasonable holes in my reads atm

[the worst]

why is cjv in your scumpool? I agree w you on Klick and like, vaguely agree with a bunch of your reads

I didn't really like 55, not as strongly as Klick but I thought Klick's point wasn't bad (as I mentioned) and 55 as a whole feels maybe generically like an early game scum post. I don't really understand the reasons he's being called town, in particular I think black gave a reason that I couldn't really parse. And like, I don't really have any reason to take him out.

This seems like a weird way to phrase this question when he's also in your scumpool; do you think he oughtn't be in mine or is it surprising to you that he is?

neither really just asking the question

[the worst]

I'm really struggling to see "I'm exhausted" as anything but a joke I'm surprised you aren't latching onto his apparent instant townread of Klick

why would i latch on to this

because (bluntly) it actually feels meaningful.

[the worst]

you also acknowledge that my level of confidence in that read is simultaneously intense and non-committal which I agree with

you're telling me you've never had multiple conflicting thoughts about a situation at the same time and started explaining one then realising you can't remember if you actually even like that thought half way through the explanation?

that's like my quintessential mafia experience

I'm a mathematician. I see you saying "probably 2 scum are in these 3 players" and I read this as you saying that you think there is a >50% chance that a proposition is true, when that proposition has a baseline probability fypov of ~10% (and, fmpov assuming you're town, the baseline probability of it being correct goes down to <5%) and that's more confidence than I have ever viscerally felt for anything on day one of a forum mafia game frankly, or maybe on any day

think of me as the opposite of a mathematician. I'm like a logician but I learned my logic from a clown school.

[the worst]

tbf the entire basis of the deepwolf meme is that dann's scumrange is quite hard to define and I'd argue he relatively rarely leaves it especially on day one

I don't think someone needs to leave their scumrange to be leaned town on and I think black is the only person I've seen who is like, outright hard townreading dann atm

something something paranoia something

I moderately townread Dann
I think Dann has definable goals as scum, it's just at a level deeper than most are willing to go

If Dann is scum then I think he's actually limiting himself in this game by mostly expressing things that look like direct opinions

this is a really good way to put words to a general energy which I'm feeling from Dann this game. he sort of feels like he's playing from his heart a little. not in that he feels super earnest in a way he couldn't replicate, but like, in that it specifically doesn't feel like he's playing this like a strategy game.

I think maybe I find implosion's read on dann a little reductive because he's looking for a reason for people's townreads to be wrong, moreso than he's actually looking to solve dann

going off this post I feel like you're in a similar place re. Dann that I am, and that's not exactly a "free pass" townread. I just have much higher priorities on day one and he's not ringing any alarm bells. I really don't see anybody except possibly black giving him a free pass.

[the worst]

if I'm a wolf I ain't that deep I'm moreso referring to his core trait this game being refusal to accept any form of status quo

This is exactly how I would describe his play in our last game together, where he was scum and both him and his partner were locked out fairly early

ah noted, thank you