Shell Game (Day 3)

[Shello and Goodbye]

i am trying to make a readslist but it is very hard and a lot of this game feels like jello. ama for like 10 mins

What is your thoughts on how the current game state looks from a voting standpoint? This question is open ended, interpet it however you like and provide that answer.

i think that people are voting the two most likely wolves in the dethyhood and also the sunflower wagon looks a lot worse than the klick one does fmpov. people will probably coalesce on one of the two soonish
i'm using this as a jumping board to post a really ?? reads list. this is without reading back too much and feeling out the Shape of the game in my mind instead

Hermit Crab (anonymous hydra)
Lukewarm
morph the cat (fferyllt & Cabd)
Dunnstral
Firebringer
Gypyx
PenguinPower
Oblivion
Cat Scratch Fever

Dannflor
Spiffeh
PookyTheMagicalBear
Brian Skies
Firebagel

~
SirCakez
Bingle
~

marcistar

ActionDan
Save the Dragons

Klick
Sunflower (JupiterXV & fireisredsir)

[Lukewarm]

Luke's confusion and... unwillingness to engage with our desire to drag info from him was a little off putting but also notably more likely to come from a townie who doesn't care.

I guess I didn't come at our conversation how you wanted me to, but I did come at it trying to engage with and help you. Like, that was the entire purpose behind me offering you a play by play of my interaction with morph.

I was offering a look into my thought process, my impression of what morph was doing in that exchange, and my conclusions on what that meant for their alignment.

None of that helped me any, and I hoped it would help you see both me and my thoughts on morph's alignment more clearly, so I wrote it out.

[morph the cat]

For me, Marci, Hermit Crab and Luke are the top three townreads.

Marci because she was so visibly uncomfortable and confused by her role/neighborhood and very suspicious of the hood until things began to click for her both within the hood and externally, in the game thread. I could see the gears turning (and grinding) in her posts. Everything about the way she revealed what was going on just built onto that foundation in a very natural and unstructured way. I also think that scum Marci would want to give us much more of a wide berth than she has.

Hermit Crab as a hidden hydra wouldn't go out of their way to support us as they have. There would be no need and we wouldn't think twice about a more cautious approach from an unknown quantity. And we're enough of a threat as scum that it would be a no-brainer to wait and see what town actually makes of us this game. There's also an incredible amount of mindmeld going on with Hermit Crab which I believe doesn't happen this way if they're scum.

Luke as town has a POV (that I don't want to discuss in detail because it's filed under competitive advantage) that we feel confident in reading when we see it. I interacted with him and pushed back at him long enough for us both to feel confident about that POV being present.

If I were pushing outside Marci's neighborhood, I'd be voting Spiffeh at the moment for this post. We discussed whether to vote in the dethy or outside of it before putting our Klick vote down. The deciding factor was the dethy players' preferences for cleaning their hood.

Sync Achieved indeed.

What are your thoughts on Dunnstraal?

I think Dunnstral's been scumhunting and pushing people pretty hard once there was more to sink his teeth into. My read had gone leantown before then but his reaction to Spiffeh re ActionDan made a pretty big positive impression.

Really? It felt quite the opposite. The reason it asked is because you earmarked Spiffeh for scum and from its current engagements with Spiffeh, it has an internal note to flip Dunnstraal if Spiffeh is scum.

I've seen players come to that kind of perspective on two players pretty often, when I'm not playing on that level at that point. I think it's a difference in how I form reads. Neuterhalf and I are in agreement on Dunn for now, so I'm probably not looking to go there next if Spiffeh flips scum.

Disappointing.

Let's discuss the 4 non marci members of the neighbourhood. Can you re-enlighten it about those names? It was STD... ugh.

Marci, Std, Klick, ActionDan, Sunflower.

I'm concerned about Sunflower too. Would very much like to conclude at least one of Klick, Sunflower are town before much longer.

We've wondered where the Jupiter head of Sunflower is. Would like to see some of his posts soonish.

[Oblivion]

Oblivion, I have a question for you. How do you feel about how your interrogation of Firebagel [didn't] resolve? How are you reading her?

It did actually answer this when it returned to poke at Spiffeh. It isn't able to 100% lock it down yet, but for us, we are unwilling to kill Bagel for the moment. It thinks the slot is town. It thinks if that slot is scum it would have to have been coached to do what it did, and it has a lock on the current mental model. It won't expect that coaching to last the whole game, and so.... it expects to be able to generate a 100% lock down on it within 2 game days. So it won't kill them today and it will be able to affirm or discard its current townread on that slot by tomorrow, it thinks. It feels relatively confident.

My thought at the time of your interactions was "awfully cheeky if scum", hence mild townlean. I wasn't sure if you were "done for now", though. Now I am.

Yes, it doesn't have any intention or trying to prod back at Bagel for the moment. Today's conversations with that slot if they continue to occur will likely be based upon trying to come to conclusions on reads with it, but frankly, this game is too large and if it can earmark a player as town, it might just ignore that player for a while and search in the unknown. It certainly has zero plans to interact further with Marci.

[Hermit Crab]

Shello can you elaborate on the Gypyx townread?

-Herr Mitt

[Shello and Goodbye]

i think the biggest ! things or changes from before on that list are

- spiffeh whose recent posts after interacting with me were strange to me he felt defensive over being questioned about how he engaged with me
- dannflor i dont have a great way to verbalize this rn but he feels bizarre. my gypyx read has her there because she also noticed that too
- pooky i think is strange because usually when people get really huffy and puffy over stuff and are like "kill me and then them" i err towards them being town but with him i feel like that's in his Wolf Wheelhouse to break out easily so idk what to make of it
- there's a lot of goop in the middle of the top section i think that if i do not have all of the wolves in the bottom tiers for both parts of the list i's in like penguin/csf/oblivion (the last one i want to revisit tmrw because some of its recent posting pinged me and i think its for the questions being asked?)
- i think the most ?? of my reads in the bottom part is probably dragons because in-thread has been just fine but from what ive gleaned from posting his neighborhood stuff has been good

[morph the cat]

i am trying to make a readslist but it is very hard and a lot of this game feels like jello. ama for like 10 mins

What is your thoughts on how the current game state looks from a voting standpoint? This question is open ended, interpet it however you like and provide that answer.

i think that people are voting the two most likely wolves in the dethyhood and also the sunflower wagon looks a lot worse than the klick one does fmpov. people will probably coalesce on one of the two soonish
i'm using this as a jumping board to post a really ?? reads list. this is without reading back too much and feeling out the Shape of the game in my mind instead

Hermit Crab (anonymous hydra)
Lukewarm
morph the cat (fferyllt & Cabd)
Dunnstral
Firebringer
Gypyx
PenguinPower
Oblivion
Cat Scratch Fever

Dannflor
Spiffeh
PookyTheMagicalBear
Brian Skies
Firebagel

~
SirCakez
Bingle
~

marcistar

ActionDan
Save the Dragons

Klick
Sunflower (JupiterXV & fireisredsir)

I'd really like to understand where your Marci read comes from, and why you have that entire hood below the no-shows.

[Shello and Goodbye]

Shello can you elaborate on the Gypyx townread?

-Herr Mitt

Already On It

[Shello and Goodbye]

i'm listing the neighborhood independently from my main reads it's not that they're all that low lol

[Oblivion]

Luke's confusion and... unwillingness to engage with our desire to drag info from him was a little off putting but also notably more likely to come from a townie who doesn't care.

I guess I didn't come at our conversation how you wanted me to, but I did come at it trying to engage with and help you. Like, that was the entire purpose behind me offering you a play by play of my interaction with morph.

I was offering a look into my thought process, my impression of what morph was doing in that exchange, and my conclusions on what that meant for their alignment.

None of that helped me any, and I hoped it would help you see both me and my thoughts on morph's alignment more clearly, so I wrote it out.

Your assistance was noted, but ultimately useless because the manner in which you approached felt strongly like it was... Point by Point.

It feels there is no real manner in which to differentiate a scum variant of you, from how it understands you which isn't a great mental model admittedly but just based on current baselines, from a town version of you writing that post. It thinks especially that you sound... guarded? Guarded is a good word. It's not suspicious to be guarded or anything, but it feels like you are.... not... words are hard.

You're not openly forthcoming. Your cards are held and it is trying to hack your brain and you're denying it. That is how it feels.

[Oblivion]

i think the biggest ! things or changes from before on that list are

- spiffeh whose recent posts after interacting with me were strange to me he felt defensive over being questioned about how he engaged with me
- dannflor i dont have a great way to verbalize this rn but he feels bizarre. my gypyx read has her there because she also noticed that too
- pooky i think is strange because usually when people get really huffy and puffy over stuff and are like "kill me and then them" i err towards them being town but with him i feel like that's in his Wolf Wheelhouse to break out easily so idk what to make of it
- there's a lot of goop in the middle of the top section i think that if i do not have all of the wolves in the bottom tiers for both parts of the list i's in like penguin/csf/

oblivion (the last one i want to revisit tmrw because some of its recent posting pinged me and i think its for the questions being asked?)

- i think the most ?? of my reads in the bottom part is probably dragons because in-thread has been just fine but from what ive gleaned from posting his neighborhood stuff has been good

It would like elaboration on this.

[Hermit Crab]

We've wondered where the Jupiter head of Sunflower is. Would like to see some of his posts soonish.

We’ve wondered the same thing, not gonna lie.

-Herr Mitt

[morph the cat]

i'm listing the neighborhood independently from my main reads it's not that they're all that low lol

Can you give a sense of where they slot in overall?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

- pooky i think is strange because usually when people get really huffy and puffy over stuff and are like "kill me and then them" i err towards them being town but with him i feel like that's in his Wolf Wheelhouse to break out easily so idk what to make of it

what am i being huffy and puffy about again

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i dont think ive ever said kill me this game so idk where you're getting that

[Shello and Goodbye]

For me, Marci, Hermit Crab and Luke are the top three townreads.

Marci because she was so visibly uncomfortable and confused by her role/neighborhood and very suspicious of the hood until things began to click for her both within the hood and externally, in the game thread. I could see the gears turning (and grinding) in her posts. Everything about the way she revealed what was going on just built onto that foundation in a very natural and unstructured way. I also think that scum Marci would want to give us much more of a wide berth than she has.

Hermit Crab as a hidden hydra wouldn't go out of their way to support us as they have. There would be no need and we wouldn't think twice about a more cautious approach from an unknown quantity. And we're enough of a threat as scum that it would be a no-brainer to wait and see what town actually makes of us this game. There's also an incredible amount of mindmeld going on with Hermit Crab which I believe doesn't happen this way if they're scum.

Luke as town has a POV (that I don't want to discuss in detail because it's filed under competitive advantage) that we feel confident in reading when we see it. I interacted with him and pushed back at him long enough for us both to feel confident about that POV being present.

If I were pushing outside Marci's neighborhood, I'd be voting Spiffeh at the moment for this post. We discussed whether to vote in the dethy or outside of it before putting our Klick vote down. The deciding factor was the dethy players' preferences for cleaning their hood.

Sync Achieved indeed.

What are your thoughts on Dunnstraal?

I think Dunnstral's been scumhunting and pushing people pretty hard once there was more to sink his teeth into. My read had gone leantown before then but his reaction to Spiffeh re ActionDan made a pretty big positive impression.

Really? It felt quite the opposite. The reason it asked is because you earmarked Spiffeh for scum and from its current engagements with Spiffeh, it has an internal note to flip Dunnstraal if Spiffeh is scum.

@oblivion

it's actually this i think - i don't think there's anything... inherently 'wrong' with this post itself on the surface but it feels a bit like something i've seen wolves post before. this is really vague and im struggling to give a why, i guess it's the linking to a better read player and starting to string them together. i think if spiffeh does flip wolf its the sort of thing i revisit critically (i am stringing you together now with spiffeh lol)

[Shello and Goodbye]

i have absolutely no issue with being vigged as long as whoever shoots me shoots morph next night

[Oblivion]

- pooky i think is strange because usually when people get really huffy and puffy over stuff and are like "kill me and then them" i err towards them being town but with him i feel like that's in his Wolf Wheelhouse to break out easily so idk what to make of it

what am i being huffy and puffy about again

Why do you feel like a bag full of venomous snakes? Like... just reading you makes me itch.

Every time it reads one of your posts, the first impression it gets is "this is someone who could cut my throat with a smile while telling me about how beautiful the sunset is".

[Shello and Goodbye]

i'm listing the neighborhood independently from my main reads it's not that they're all that low lol

Can you give a sense of where they slot in overall?

- having the context of why marci's been talking about being afraid this game and worried and etc makes more sense to me and i dont think she would handle it this way if she were a wolf or idek if she would be able
- actiondan isnt wolfy to me really i think back to that post where he voted marci and that just is town to me. i think he would be playing a little sloppy if he were a wolf too with how he handled the miller stuff it falls apart very easily. wolves Can Be Sloppy but... eh?
- already explained dragons
- klick and sunflower are kind of in the same place here by virtue of the other three being townier i think, dragons is contentious because of no in-thread but trusting what's going on in the neighborhood instead. going strictly off of wagon i think sunflower is the town between these two and i dont think fire plays midsummer 2 here as an opener

[Lukewarm]

You're not openly forthcoming. Your cards are held and it is trying to hack your brain and you're denying it. That is how it feels.

I am used to the average impression of me being that I am someone who dumps all thoughts into the thread. So this is certainly a novel take.

From my POV, it feels like you asked me a question that is functionally not answerable, and then view me as being stubborn by not answering. I think we have fundamentally different ways of thinking about other players, and that is just a barrier that exists that is independent to my willingness to share my thoughts.

[Oblivion]

For me, Marci, Hermit Crab and Luke are the top three townreads.

Marci because she was so visibly uncomfortable and confused by her role/neighborhood and very suspicious of the hood until things began to click for her both within the hood and externally, in the game thread. I could see the gears turning (and grinding) in her posts. Everything about the way she revealed what was going on just built onto that foundation in a very natural and unstructured way. I also think that scum Marci would want to give us much more of a wide berth than she has.

Hermit Crab as a hidden hydra wouldn't go out of their way to support us as they have. There would be no need and we wouldn't think twice about a more cautious approach from an unknown quantity. And we're enough of a threat as scum that it would be a no-brainer to wait and see what town actually makes of us this game. There's also an incredible amount of mindmeld going on with Hermit Crab which I believe doesn't happen this way if they're scum.

Luke as town has a POV (that I don't want to discuss in detail because it's filed under competitive advantage) that we feel confident in reading when we see it. I interacted with him and pushed back at him long enough for us both to feel confident about that POV being present.

If I were pushing outside Marci's neighborhood, I'd be voting Spiffeh at the moment for this post. We discussed whether to vote in the dethy or outside of it before putting our Klick vote down. The deciding factor was the dethy players' preferences for cleaning their hood.

Sync Achieved indeed.

What are your thoughts on Dunnstraal?

I think Dunnstral's been scumhunting and pushing people pretty hard once there was more to sink his teeth into. My read had gone leantown before then but his reaction to Spiffeh re ActionDan made a pretty big positive impression.

Really? It felt quite the opposite. The reason it asked is because you earmarked Spiffeh for scum and from its current engagements with Spiffeh, it has an internal note to flip Dunnstraal if Spiffeh is scum.

@oblivion

it's actually this i think - i don't think there's anything... inherently 'wrong' with this post itself on the surface but it feels a bit like something i've seen wolves post before. this is really vague and im struggling to give a why, i guess it's the linking to a better read player and starting to string them together. i think if spiffeh does flip wolf its the sort of thing i revisit critically (i am stringing you together now with spiffeh lol)

That is a confusing take. Have you read the bit of it and spiffeh's interaction on page 7?

It will outline for you why it thinks the way it does. In essence while poking at Spiffeh, spiffeh appeared to want to change its mind about things. It was confused, initially because... it didn't HAVE a strong solid take away on Bagel OR Dunnstraal yet. And yet this player seemed to be... intoning something towards it? And then by the response it was given in the end, it felt like Spiffeh had an agenda to be manipulating it.

It is FULLY aware of its position in this game. It is newer, it is less known and knows less of everyone. It expects it will be the target of manipulation tactics to control it. That was the kind of tactic is was on high alert for.

So, in its mind, if Spiffeh was scum trying to control it as what he might view as a weaker mind to misdirect, why would Spiffeh do that? What is the intended angle? the intended angle would be either

Make it believe they are town
convince it to change its mind on one of the two reads

but it wasn't.... sweet enough for the first. It didn't feel like it was trying to be swayed to have its eyes covered on the case of Spiffeh's alignment. So it assumes the second. And if Bagel is town...

There's the end of that logic chain.

[Shello and Goodbye]

morph, do either of you have an opinion on Dannflor yet

I may have missed it if you answered my question. I'm curious about the meaning of your tags in your reads list. what do strikethroughs and bolding denote?

I will answer
Could I ask what your best guess is first?

Our best guess is that the strikethroughs mean you've found them town enough for now, and the bolds are your scumreads/concerns.

That's basically accurate

I find value in it being ambiguous. I like to experiment with different methods of expressing my thoughts on the game. I also enjoy extracting information out of how people engage with different levels of ambiguity vs straightforwardness. I often find that some people's assumptions about things like that are pretty closely attached to alignment.

I'll occasionally shift how willing I am to highlight someone in one direction or another just to try it out and see what will happen

this is i think really tangential and the least sensical take for klick but i thought that this felt weird at the time because it doesnt quite match what i would expect him to answer. i dont know what that answer would -be- though. otherwise his recent posting seems like hes not very comfortable in thread

[Oblivion]

You're not openly forthcoming. Your cards are held and it is trying to hack your brain and you're denying it. That is how it feels.

I am used to the average impression of me being that I am someone who dumps all thoughts into the thread. So this is certainly a novel take.

From my POV, it feels like you asked me a question that is functionally not answerable, and then view me as being stubborn by not answering. I think we have fundamentally different ways of thinking about other players, and that is just a barrier that exists that is independent to my willingness to share my thoughts.

Perhaps. May it attempt to explain one more time what it is looking for?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i have absolutely no issue with being vigged as long as whoever shoots me shoots morph next night

if someone repeats four times in the first day of a game for any vig to shoot me, I'm going to ask that if it's done that they pay with their lives on the next night.

that is not me asking to get shot or killed. I have not at any point asked to die or whatever.

[morph the cat]

i'm listing the neighborhood independently from my main reads it's not that they're all that low lol

Can you give a sense of where they slot in overall?

- having the context of why marci's been talking about being afraid this game and worried and etc makes more sense to me and i dont think she would handle it this way if she were a wolf or idek if she would be able
- actiondan isnt wolfy to me really i think back to that post where he voted marci and that just is town to me. i think he would be playing a little sloppy if he were a wolf too with how he handled the miller stuff it falls apart very easily. wolves Can Be Sloppy but... eh?
- already explained dragons
- klick and sunflower are kind of in the same place here by virtue of the other three being townier i think, dragons is contentious because of no in-thread but trusting what's going on in the neighborhood instead. going strictly off of wagon i think sunflower is the town between these two and i dont think fire plays midsummer 2 here as an opener

I meant where they'd individually fall in your overall reads list or tier list if that's how you're sorting.

Maybe I'm asking for something that isn't baked enough yet.