Post
Post #1367 (isolation #200) » Sun May 29, 2022 4:41 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1345, syugar wrote:What's different about your read on catboi in this game? You assume information and team interactions that aren't available to the public, and it just isn't possible you have a good enough read on scum's supposed QT this game to satisfactorily make that leap without having extra questions or being unsure. You are gambling the game on content that you assume would exist if they were a scumteam but you are assuming does not exist because they disagreed on a mechanical play. If you can't see how this is much more of a reach than these three reads and is just substantively different, I'm not sure what to say.
And then, you are arguing this, when that is literally the back bone of the case made here:
In post 1337, Lukewarm wrote:
He said it wasn't a townie thought process that I was thinking about the way that the scum team might be working together, here is a partner read built around what I perceived to be the scum plan at the time.
Spoiler:
In post 1802, Servant Archer wrote:
To me, option 1 looks like a scum team that has some semblance of a plan. Option 2 looks like a scum team that is all pulling in completely opposite directions.
I don't have a ton of experience with Titus, but from what I have seen, I feel like she would have had some semblance of a plan.
I would go as far as to say that there is already evidence this game that Titus was trying to coordinate plans in the scum chat, when you look at Day 0 and see Moon Cancer, Day 0, jumping on to the Saber 4 Master campaign when Titus thought she could win the master. Then Moon doing a full 180, and calling Saber scum once Titus realized she had lost the master (and that she would probably need to bus if she wanted to regain a footing in the game)
---------------
So yeah, foreigner being scum makes more sense to me.
I would no longer say that scum!Avenger is impossible, but would need to see more evidence for it -- such as foreigner flipping town in order to give me any evidence that a counter wagon was being made by the scum team
Post
Post #1369 (isolation #201) » Sun May 29, 2022 4:46 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1366, syugar wrote:I legitimately don't understand what I'm supposed to be seeing there, after rereading what you just posted three times. These things are unrelated to the point of feeling schizophrenic.
I am also feeling like we are talking different languages.
Post
Post #1373 (isolation #203) » Sun May 29, 2022 4:49 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1368, syugar wrote:To me, option 1 looks like a scum team that has some semblance of a plan. Option 2 looks like a scum team that is all pulling in completely opposite directions.
I don't have a ton of experience with Titus, but from what I have seen, I feel like she would have had some semblance of a plan.
I would go as far as to say that there is already evidence this game that Titus was trying to coordinate plans in the scum chat
In post 1171, Lukewarm wrote:Like how would that scum team have gotten there? Did they not talk at all? This doesn't match what I've seen of catboi in scum chats - when I read his scum chat for fgo, I felt like there was a lot of collaboration and suggestions to his partners.
He argued for it too much if he didn't actually want it to happen, and GM argued against it too hard if they actually did want it to happen
Is it a scum team that thought the mass claim would help them? GM's play makes no sense
Was it a scum team that thought the mass claim would hurt them? Catbois play makes no sense
If you can't read these two back to back, and see that this is just one of the ways that I think about games semetimes, I don't know what to tell you.
I'm gonna walk away now and let other people weigh in
Post
Post #1377 (isolation #204) » Sun May 29, 2022 5:02 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1374, syugar wrote:I don't even think you have considered the idea that I may be town here during our entire conversation in the last few hours.
In the last few hours, I probably haven't.
From the way you jumped on my wagon following catboi, the arguements you have made, the 180 to voting bella, to a 180 back to casing me has all screamed scum to me and that is all that I have been seeing.
Next time I get back on, I'll do a tunnel check
I feel a lot calmer writing this post then the others I have written tonight, moving form my computer to my bed can do that lol
I was pretty 50/50 on the two of you until the stuff that made me really really sure that you were scum - so it is less anything that she did, and more that she suddenly looked a lot better comparatively
This will be part of the tunnel check. So, something for tomorrow.
Post
Post #1379 (isolation #206) » Sun May 29, 2022 5:04 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1376, syugar wrote:Also, if you townread catboi, who I've played with for many, many years and has cultivated a townread on me, why haven't you asked him questions about why he townreads me to try and sponge him and increase your accuracy here?
Because he unvoted me, and voiced suspicion on you - so it seemed like he was unsure of his own read there, and so I was not expecting a lot of insight from him on the topic
Post
Post #1381 (isolation #207) » Sun May 29, 2022 5:22 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1380, syugar wrote:That bothers me, because I have been trying to explain my thought process all day, and it doesn't look like you're interested in the other aisle. I have talked and collaborated with you and admitted when I am wrong (not as first, because I was bullheaded, but I came around) and have been open to communicating and you have completely shut me out. News flash here, if we're both town and you manage to convince jpeg to elim me today, it's highly probable we're going to lose this game. You are so consumed by this singular thought that you have this solved, it's scary. That's probably the biggest thing that is making me /want/ to vote for you now. I don't feel like you have enough consideration for the endgame of a really hard match. I don't think I have been so scummy today as to have been outed to that degree.
This post, in my gut, feels like manipulation... Gonna add it to the list of things to look back at tomorrow.
I already said that tomorrow I will re-evaluate. I am aware that I have a tendency to get tunneled. I have been called out for it before.
Post
Post #1390 (isolation #208) » Mon May 30, 2022 6:59 am
Postby Lukewarm »
I'll be around for questions, but not feeling solving atm.
I don't really know where to go. Syugar's change in tone and approach with me towards the end of our conversation really disarmed me in a way that I am not sure how to feel about.
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Post #1419 (isolation #212) » Tue May 31, 2022 12:19 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1402, Bellaphant wrote:I think syugars content about Luke is better than Luke's about syugae.
Can you put more words to this? Like, part of me walking away the other night was I wanted to see if other people, reading later, saw what I saw when I was in the heat of the moment.... and then none of you guys really said much >.<
Actually, this is an open question to catboi and jpeg aswell.
Post
Post #1420 (isolation #213) » Tue May 31, 2022 12:22 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1409, syugar wrote:As we currently stand I lean towards voting Luke until I see his posts about his reevaluation (I get the impression he was stalling yesterday as he didn't know what to do),
In post 1409, syugar wrote:As we currently stand I lean towards voting Luke until I see his posts about his reevaluation (I get the impression he was stalling yesterday as he didn't know what to do),
Where?
Why?
You came to the thread yesterday and didn't do anything due to fatigue, could be a coincidence of course but this is the first time it's happened isn't it?
I mean, it wasn't a "coincidence"
I spent most of the other day 100,000% sure that you were scum, and was felt like I was going to battle to win the game. Righteous War and all that.
And then, suddenly the way that you engaged with me, deflated that energy. I because less sure, and concerned that I was tunneled.
And I was literally waiting for people to weigh in on our discussion to help me figure out if that was the case, and I never really got that.
In post 760, Lukewarm wrote:Do you thibk i should I be Town reading you in games where you are a smaller presence?
Sometimes not always but it's absolutely true that I'd have likely tried to influence things more and be more of a presence had I rolled scum in a newbie game becausse my will to win as that alignment is a lot stronger.
I have played several games with catboi, and I have not once run into a game where he was this defeated in solving.
Spoiler:
In post 1014, catboi wrote:I'm not actually sure my reads are worth anything at this point.
In post 1397, catboi wrote:I'm spent, it's too hard to understand anything, none of the words are helpful
In post 1398, catboi wrote:like in theory this is the time to shine and demonstrate to the newbies how to go about trying to figure out the game and find the last mafia, I just don't have the drive
Additionally, he has largely not made any big waves or pushes since I made that comment, until today, when he started to push me.
The second thing was looking at the way that he progressed on Day 3, but I am moving that to its own post to improve readability.
Post
Post #1440 (isolation #224) » Tue May 31, 2022 3:35 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
It feels like catboi wanted goodmorning to not be the elimination day 3, without wanting to look like he was the one who saved GM.
When I was looking through his iso, I realized that he did not cast a single vote the entire day. He almost feels like he is dragging it out, repeatedly checking in to say that he was in the middle of rereading/doing iso's -- but not done yet. And he appears to be keeping his options open. as of 1064, he lists jpeg, syugar, and bella all as potential gm partners. I was the only player that he was not considering.
If he is scum, this could be to give GM time to come in and try to save themselves or for the town to start moving away to other options.
While he was not voting anyone, he was around doing his isos. The first person that he goes through is jpeg. He makes some concrete scum indicative points, with examples.
Spoiler:
In post 964, catboi wrote:cat.jpeg was, in my initial feeling, the type of player I might typically blindspot for being friendly, and I was a little unnerved by the strength of her townread on me to start the day, as well as her reasoning of the worst being "too scummy to be scum", which didn't really sit right with me
In post 972, catboi wrote:initial feeling on rereading cat.jpeg's iso is that there's a lot less analysis than I remembered and the conclusions are tepid
there's probably maybe some merit to looking back at day 2 to see if there was anyone who seemed to be awkwardly townreading syugar if they knew a nightkill on him had been stopped
In post 728, Cat.Jpeg wrote:Im also pretty split right now between the worst and GM but im pretty confident at least one of them is scum. I will iso them tmr and figure out which one is more sus. Also im assuming at this point we arent going to mass claim.
In post 828, Cat.Jpeg wrote:I feel like the worst is almost too scummy to be scum though. (sorry for being inactive)
This sequence + the activity falloff from day 1 is bothersome to me - the read on worst never feels like it jhas a real followthrough, it looks like she was willing to push him until it was clear she wasn't needed to make the wagon go through
The next person that catboi looks at is goodmorning, and here was his comments on her iso for comparison.
Spoiler:
In post 1006, catboi wrote:I don't know. struggling to get any read at all from trying to reread GM
feeling...not great about my ability to do anything this game
, is their response to getting wagoned day 2 but even then I can't tell if that's more a sign of alignment or personality
I feel like there is a substantive difference in looking at the way that catboi was analyzing these two slots. And, it also feels like, based on his reaction to doing there isos, he
should
prefer to kill jpeg here. However, immediately after this, T02 is pressuring him to commit to a preference, and
In post 1012, catboi wrote:probably most confident voting goodmorning right now after finishing reading but I want to actually consider everyone before I just spit out opinions
Despite that, he lands on GM as the best options - but continues to kick his final decision down the road.
In post 1042, syugar wrote:Also, if you have gut suspicion of Bella that nobody shares, keep in mind that you will be the one dying tonight so if your guess is wrong it doesn't really help anyone else. We're left with basically nothing different than the previous day as we're unsure about very many other suspects
I mean, of course, if he's
right
about bella and no one else is, it's the only thing hat can save the game...
But rather than looking at it from a selfish perspective, I'd appreciate it if he could try to quantify that gut feeling in words in some way. I have my own thoughts from what I've been rereading but I'd appreciate talking it over with take.
In post 978, Bellaphant wrote:I remember making these points early day 2 and feeling talked out of it.
I've already shared my reads. Now I'm wavering on catjpeg again.
In post 981, Bellaphant wrote:I hate nka but it does throw more Sus on jpeg. I think me (and syugar a little bit) has been the only real push on the slot
In post 1079, syugar wrote:Nevermind, you said that she's sus in 925 but there is no progression or explanation whatsoever
I've also said this. I'd much rather do cat today
How do you explain this progression where suddenly your strongest preference is for .jpeg?
In post 1085, catboi wrote:bleh, meant to add 937 to those quotes - even if you found the points against cat.jpeg persuasive...I'm not sure why you suddenly have her as your top elim target and no one else?
In post 1098, Bellaphant wrote:That's fine, but it's the little words that matter. You said is 'suddenly' had this read on catjpeg, but it's not new at all - words like that feel very scummy to me. You call it 'suspicious' but I've just shown to what my progression is and you haven't really responded, just defended yourself.
I don't know that I actually have a comment, lol - I appreciate the clarity? I think it generally makes sense and is plausible you're town just getting paranoid here.
The first three substantive posts that catboi has about bella (skipping him asking her a basic question) that day are all encouraging other people to case her (and also soft supporting the idea that T02 might jail Bella).
Note, that these posts about Bella come soon after GM has hit e1. (T02 voted GM in 1016)
However, he eventually dropped it, even calling her "plausible town" --
specifically in response to bella scum reading him back.
, is their response to getting wagoned day 2 but even then I can't tell if that's more a sign of alignment or personality
In post 1012, catboi wrote:probably most confident voting goodmorning right now after finishing reading butI want to actually consider everyone before I just spit out opinions
@catboi, what did you see in your reread that shifted you from struggling to get any read to most confident in voting goodmorning here?
It was like...I didn't get anything townie from reading, there was some slightly scummy stuff at the end of the ISO, I still had doubts on whether cat.jpeg was scum, other people had some semblance of mechanics or dayplay going for them
dunno if you think I'd have trouble BSing a scumcase on GM, were I scum. I could probably write one right now but I'd be forcing it
I pressed him on why he prefered goodmorning, and got a similarly less then persuasive set of points, and said that they could not make a case.
It was not until this post that catboi ever makes a coherent point on why he thought goodmorning would be scum here
In post 701, goodmorning wrote:Wow, there are exactly 0 scummy things about my wagon. Completely normal and very cool, nothing suspect whatsoever.
This game has been so exhausting and unfun. Frankly I'm just about ready to die.
VOTE: worst
I still think T02 is Town and I understand where catboi is coming from already even if it's a very misguided place. worst's hop onto my wagon is l a z y in a way that feels like a scumclaim.
But, y'know, go ahead and run me up, it'll be a great time.
I mean I guess the biggest thing that pinged me was the response to being wagoned just felt...fake. I realize that sounds underwhelming for a reason, but it's just the feeling I get
In post 820, goodmorning wrote:I am still very anti massclaim (it clearly will provide more info to Scum than it will to Town) but will bow to the will of the 3 UTs - let me know if you're still inclined to see this through or not.
That said, at 2.5 days remaining I'm also not sure there's really time for it.
In the meantime:
@Luke 805: I'm not sure I understand your point. It's not automatically scummy for someone to scumread me, I'm not [player name redacted for obvious reasons]. Did you want me to fight with you? I'm not really in the mood for that atm.
In post 840, goodmorning wrote:I'm here, but was waiting to hear a yea or nay from the UTs. My vote is (as indicated by my literal vote) for elimming worst today and mcing tomorrow.
This massclaim stuff has taken up 90% of the content today and was obviously the wrong idea on the face of it. No, I will not be discussing this any further than I already have.
This stuff felt like...using protesting claiming as an excuse while avoiding actually giving any content themself.
That's my feeling right now.
And his next post was this
In post 1123, catboi wrote:My feeling at this point is that it's an intentional stall from gm. Wouldn't be the first time I've seen it. Make people wait and force them to make a decision with less time to think it over.
It feels like there is a distinct shift in the handling and approach to his goodmorning scum read here.
I think that it is possible that this is when he decided that he wasn't saving gm.
In post 1111, syugar wrote:and independent on my townread on catboi, catboi/cat.jpeg makes more sense than any other team right now. I don't understand why jpeg just votes gm like that. It will be autoloss if they are partners. That's why I am freaked out.
if you are town, this is going to be a lesson in the hazards of trying to find the exact team all at once rather than simply voting whoever's scummiest.
Of course, if I'm wrong on cat.jpeg and they get voted out today, that's on me but I don't mind being jailed in that scenario.
The issue, is that catboi is not championing this elim.
On the contrary, he has already said that he wants goodmorning in 1012, and stated town pings in 1082.
Stating that he would look bad on a jpeg elim here, feels counter-intuitive to the thought process of a townie who prefers a GM elim. However, it would be a legitimate concern to a gm scum partner who is hoping for a jpeg elim.
In post 953, Takemikazuchi02 wrote:Also with the knowledge that maf knew what the setup was since day 2, it makes catboi's mass claim proposal a lot more suspicious.
If the mass claim went through, one of the mafs could have claimed tracker, I die N2 and maf easily gets a miselim D3 and wins.
VOTE: catboi
I am finding it really hard to look at my day 2 interactions with catboi (starting at post 755) coming from scum!boi.
I don't think that scum catboi approaches me this way. I was not particularly town read, so people are not following me - and he just happened to exist on a list of
5 names
of people in my PoE, and I was not pushing him at the time. This is not a threat to scum!catboi that he needs to deal with, and getting me to town read him is likely not a top priority.
It reads more like proper frustration at getting incorrectly scum read by me once again.
I also don't think that he then questions me when I say that my scum read softened.
And then the things with the mass claim (which is apparently the dumbest thing that anyone has ever thought about a game of mafia according to some)
-----------------
But the thing is, I am not even sure that this is right. I still think that most of what I said about syugar could land on being true (especially with the way he has been focused on getting that "townblock" with catboi just now)
And, I also looked at Bella and saw things that I didn't like.
Basically, every iso I open, I feel like I have found scum.
The main thing that made me worried was their positioning around the elim today.
Like, they walked into the day saying that catboi was scummy, and then they seemed to slide into the idea that it can never be catboi too easily I guess? Its hard to see why that switch happened, but if she were scum it could actually be just because you and I both put a stake in the ground that we were both never considering scum!catboi this day phase - so arguing for a catboi elim would have been a fight not worth fighting
In post 1132, Bellaphant wrote:Prior to your start to the day I thought catbois was bad. But talking with Luke I started to change my mind, and then your erratci stuff happened.
Like, the best answer I was able to find on why she swayed was this. Basically saying that my town case on catboi based on the mass claim thing was good.
But then
In post 1402, Bellaphant wrote:I think syugars content about Luke is better than Luke's about syugae.
She thought that your arguments were better then mine, and a big part of our argument was whether that idea even made any sense for us to be thinking about.
In post 1402, Bellaphant wrote:I think syugars content about Luke is better than Luke's about syugae.
Can you put more words to this? Like, part of me walking away the other night was I wanted to see if other people, reading later, saw what I saw when I was in the heat of the moment.... and then none of you guys really said much >.<
Actually, this is an open question to catboi and jpeg aswell.
Which is part of the reason that I was interested in hearing more from her here
In post 1132, Bellaphant wrote:Prior to your start to the day I thought catbois was bad. But talking with Luke I started to change my mind, and then your erratci stuff happened.
Like, the best answer I was able to find on why she swayed was this. Basically saying that my town case on catboi based on the mass claim thing was good.
But then
In post 1402, Bellaphant wrote:I think syugars content about Luke is better than Luke's about syugae.
She thought that your arguments were better then mine, and a big part of our argument was whether that idea even made any sense for us to be thinking about.
messed up the editing here, and hid my comment inside the quote
In post 1111, syugar wrote:and independent on my townread on catboi, catboi/cat.jpeg makes more sense than any other team right now. I don't understand why jpeg just votes gm like that. It will be autoloss if they are partners. That's why I am freaked out.
if you are town, this is going to be a lesson in the hazards of trying to find the exact team all at once rather than simply voting whoever's scummiest.
Of course, if I'm wrong on cat.jpeg and they get voted out today, that's on me but I don't mind being jailed in that scenario.
The issue, is that catboi is not championing this elim.
On the contrary, he has already said that he wants goodmorning in 1012, and stated town pings in 1082.
Stating that he would look bad on a jpeg elim here, feels counter-intuitive to the thought process of a townie who prefers a GM elim. However, it would be a legitimate concern to a gm scum partner who is hoping for a jpeg elim.
I don't really understand this point very well, I get the others
I'm gonna try to reword this
The question is, what is the basis, in this moment, for catboi to think "if I'm wrong on cat.jpeg and they get voted out today, that's on me"
At this point in time, catboi has actively said that their prefered elim is GM -- and is making statements about getting town pings from jpeg.
If he is town, and wants a different elim, and is making mild town points on jpeg -- where would the guilt over a miselim on jpeg come from?
----
If however, he didn't want the goodmorning elim. And he was making weak posts about goodmorning, and purposefully not voting there. And holding out for me or bella to vote jpeg so that he could join the wagon and GM hammer -- then he would be thinking about how he would look in the scenario that jpeg is killed, and flips town.
In post 1457, Lukewarm wrote:If he is town, and wants a different elim, and is making mild town points on jpeg -- where would the guilt over a miselim on jpeg come from?
I saw it more as guilt over him defending Cat.Jpeg in the world where she were scum, which is the opposite of your interpretation, I don't think you've got it right
And that makes sense because he'd be a fine partner candidate for her
I just looked back at it, and the timing of it again. And I think that you are right, and I read it wrong there.
Post
Post #1465 (isolation #234) » Tue May 31, 2022 4:35 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
Here is literally every mention of jpeg in catboi's iso, starting with T02 claiming to the end of the day
Spoiler: Catboi calling jpeg scummy
In post 972, catboi wrote:initial feeling on rereading cat.jpeg's iso is that there's a lot less analysis than I remembered and the conclusions are tepid
there's probably maybe some merit to looking back at day 2 to see if there was anyone who seemed to be awkwardly townreading syugar if they knew a nightkill on him had been stopped
In post 728, Cat.Jpeg wrote:Im also pretty split right now between the worst and GM but im pretty confident at least one of them is scum. I will iso them tmr and figure out which one is more sus. Also im assuming at this point we arent going to mass claim.
In post 828, Cat.Jpeg wrote:I feel like the worst is almost too scummy to be scum though. (sorry for being inactive)
This sequence + the activity falloff from day 1 is bothersome to me - the read on worst never feels like it jhas a real followthrough, it looks like she was willing to push him until it was clear she wasn't needed to make the wagon go through
In post 979, catboi wrote:Well. I think it's more likely than not that you were a legit NK target, probably syugar as well. I need to revisit goodmorning but
if
we have the team narrowed down, the order doesn't matter nearly as much if you're paranoid of someone.
I also think based on the way cat.jpeg and goldfish interacted, they don't feel like partners either. For what that's worth.
In post 1055, catboi wrote:I do think a clear on cat.jpeg is likely to be valuable if goodmorning is mafia, regardless, as otherwise jpeg is basically always going to be a suspect.
In the event of a town flip...I don't know. I have a hard time seeing Luke teamed with anyone based on interactions he's had with people. gun to my head answer would actually be bella/syugar which feels really silly but I don't have anything better than guessing at this point
In post 1059, syugar wrote:i didnt realize u were teaming us, i was thinking smth else
both jks being scum i dont believe youd believe
I mean I'm saying it feels improbable! BUT we are talking in a hypothetical where I have to preflip goodmorning as town to begin with and then try to formulate a team
and either my dayplay reads are wildly off the mark (entirely possible!) or I'm just stuck doing nonsense worldbuilding where the answer is always going to look wrong because goodmorning is mafia
what are partner candidates for gm iyo
jpeg, you, bella
are there any reasons these are unlikely ("I am town" is not a useful answer for this exercise)
In post 1040, syugar wrote:There's no point in protecting bella, just gives the mafia impunity to kill you while we don't realistically learn anything because bella is never being voted off
In post 1042, syugar wrote:Also, if you have gut suspicion of Bella that nobody shares, keep in mind that you will be the one dying tonight so if your guess is wrong it doesn't really help anyone else. We're left with basically nothing different than the previous day as we're unsure about very many other suspects
In post 1044, syugar wrote:cat jpeg voting gm is a bit weird for my view of this table but idk whats going on
Do u even read my posts? I scumread bella. I have also been scumreading GM for basically the entire game. For those who townread Bella, why?
For the record I'm fine with being jailed because im either cleared or theres a no-kill. I would prefer Bella but whatever.
See, I can't help it, I just get a gut-town feeling from posts like this
can you explain why you scumread bella, though?
Spoiler: While pushing Bella, asking Bella to explain their jpef scumread
In post 978, Bellaphant wrote:I remember making these points early day 2 and feeling talked out of it.
I've already shared my reads. Now I'm wavering on catjpeg again.
In post 981, Bellaphant wrote:I hate nka but it does throw more Sus on jpeg. I think me (and syugar a little bit) has been the only real push on the slot
In post 1079, syugar wrote:Nevermind, you said that she's sus in 925 but there is no progression or explanation whatsoever
I've also said this. I'd much rather do cat today
How do you explain this progression where suddenly your strongest preference is for .jpeg?
In post 1085, catboi wrote:bleh, meant to add 937 to those quotes - even if you found the points against cat.jpeg persuasive...I'm not sure why you suddenly have her as your top elim target and no one else?
Spoiler: Saying that he is never partnered with jpeg
In post 1094, Bellaphant wrote:I'd love catjpeg (or anyone) to put a scum case against me.
It occurs to me that catboi has done this weird soft defend for several slots in the game -cat, the worst, tidus, syugar, but I don't know if it means anything, apart from 'buddying'.
I don't think I ever defended worst, I was pushing him as an alternative to tidus even. But for cat and tidus, I just full on towread them at points, simple as that.
You're free to get paranoid of me/cat.jpeg, but if that's the team I don't
start the day
by paranoia-ing a read onto cat and chip away at your townread, only to 180 that read later on when there's actual pressure on jpeg. that is just strategically foolish and provides no benefit whatsoever.
Spoiler: Uses past tense on calling them a scum read, but not answering my question when I ask for clarification on his read there
, is their response to getting wagoned day 2 but even then I can't tell if that's more a sign of alignment or personality
In post 1012, catboi wrote:probably most confident voting goodmorning right now after finishing reading butI want to actually consider everyone before I just spit out opinions
@catboi, what did you see in your reread that shifted you from struggling to get any read to most confident in voting goodmorning here?
It was like...I didn't get anything townie from reading, there was some slightly scummy stuff at the end of the ISO, I still had doubts on whether cat.jpeg was scum, other people had some semblance of mechanics or dayplay going for them
dunno if you think I'd have trouble BSing a scumcase on GM, were I scum. I could probably write one right now but I'd be forcing it
In post 1104, catboi wrote:dunno if you think I'd have trouble BSing a scumcase on GM, were I scum. I could probably write one right now but I'd be forcing it
I'm not sure why you jumped to this...
I am debating if going going goodmorning or cat.jpeg is better here, and was wondering what you saw - since you went from seemingly at null to scum reading them towards the end of your reread of them. Its the same reason that I asked T02 why they were town reading jpeg, and if they still are.
I saw that Bella also prefered to start with jpeg, and syugar+bella+me is enough to put jpeg to e-1, so it can be done - and was considering if it was worth it to see what goodmorning would do if jpeg was at e-1 since we cant see what jpeg would do with goodmorning was at e-1 since his vote is already there.
So taking stock of peoples thoughts on gm and jpeg.
In post 1111, syugar wrote:and independent on my townread on catboi, catboi/cat.jpeg makes more sense than any other team right now. I don't understand why jpeg just votes gm like that. It will be autoloss if they are partners. That's why I am freaked out.
if you are town, this is going to be a lesson in the hazards of trying to find the exact team all at once rather than simply voting whoever's scummiest. Of course, if I'm wrong on cat.jpeg and they get voted out today, that's on me but I don't mind being jailed in that scenario.
Spoiler: Saying that if GM flips town, be on syugar or jpeg
In post 1140, catboi wrote:personally i'd say flip a coin between syugar and cat.jpeg if town but that's just me you're free not to trust me
---------------
I am not seeing a single post that would preclude catboi from voting jpeg at some point that phase, and for him to present it like it was is disingenuous.
Bella and syugar were both saying that they prefered a jpeg vote, and I was saying that a gm vote and a jpeg vote was about the same to me. --- There is not a single post here trying to tell any one of us not to vote for jpeg.
Scum!Luke never turns on you here. He never softens on syugar, and camps there to the end of the phase, and then bella and jpeg have to chose between killing me or syugar - and I am pretty sure that I just win that based on their reads.
Or alternatively, I just turn on Bella. I spotted enough that i mentioned just now when syugar asked where I could have easily done that. You have been weivering between us this phase.
And like, it feels like you are not actually asking if scun!luke would have done any of the things this game.
Would scum like kill syugar into bella?
No. I fucking saw the worst's post. I would have killed him every time. He was hinting a pr and he scum read me (and maybe gm, I'm not looking back right now) and we are in a column with a cop and a jk.
And even if I decided to pass on the worst here, I kill you over syugar OR bella here. You are the only player on this list that had any experience with me, and i think youbare a good player, and i would fear kill you for it. Plus you were scum reading gm.
Would scum luke argue for the massclaim?
No. I would be terrified that me or my partner- which ever didbthe kill- was jailed. Like, that is literally what happened to me in my first scum game on site. A newbie game, and the jk targeted me night 1 and I promptly died day 2. In my experience before this game, the jk always seems to use it aggressively, not defensively
AND I would have the easy excuse of leaning hard into the idea that the no kill made the difference.
Would scum luke kill off his partner instead of going for jpeg day 3?
No. The idea of that actually terrifies me. I have never been solo scum in any game ever. I distinctly would rather if one of us goes down, it's me - and my partner looks good for it.
Post
Post #1472 (isolation #236) » Tue May 31, 2022 5:01 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1468, catboi wrote:this feels if anything more like a designated pivot because cat.jpeg wasn't going to hammer syugar and i was hemming and hawing on him all day
In post 1387, syugar wrote:Where are you at with your other reads, though?
Scum to town
I still want to elim Bella, at this point 75% confident although she's playing well and some of her posts are very towny I just think it's the only thing that makes sense. ]I plan on reading her full ISO again before I commit. I want more posts from her
If its not her I think it's you. Idk how I feel about 'I know I will convince Catboi I am town because of how much we have played with each other.' and then when Catboi arrives they give a response that isnt even specific to you, you are playing very differently than earlier with long posts despite implying you were going to put less effort in. First game i played on this site scum did this where they were very casual early on then in elo started wallposting and controlling the thread (they won). It might a personality thing though also its not exactly the same.
Lukewarm, I stand by what i've said before although it wasn't much. I can see what they have said as coming from town.
catboi Right now i don't even want to consider catboi being scum, although maybe you should if it's elo tmr, still very unlikely. Maybe give more thoughts on Syugar?
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Post #1474 (isolation #237) » Tue May 31, 2022 5:09 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
Jesus Christ. Because I am still trying to get us to win this fucking game
You talking to me like I am at 100% sure that you are scum. I would have voted you if that was the case
...
As I type this, I am realizing that this is the exact situation I had with syugar earlier where i told him that he didnt need a vote for me to react like he was sure i was scum - except I am syugar and you are me.
I'm going to bed. Someone else can solve this freaking game
Post
Post #1476 (isolation #238) » Tue May 31, 2022 5:15 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
I spent like 4 straight hours staring at this stupid game trying my best to figure it the fuck out. And what do I get? Syugar just completely dismissing everything I have to say for the millionth time, and you here shouting at me and at least one of you is fucking town this game.
And I don't even get to feel great like I even solved anything, because I can't manage to town read literally anyone here because everyone is actually the scummiest people ever.
In post 1445, Lukewarm wrote:Basically, every iso I open, I feel like I have found scum.
In post 1478, Lukewarm wrote:I fucking hope you are town here, because if it turns out that you are scum and this was your response to suspicion...
I don't even know what to say
other than cursing (which I think we both know I'll do as either alignment, I try to restrain myself in newbies but I'm out of patience) what did i actually do that's out of bounds
serious question
I'm going to go ahead and apologize. I think that I over reacted.
Reading back over it now that I am no longer heated, I think that I added a lot with the tone in which I read your posts.
i was already kinda primed with being frustrated this game, because I have been feeling like everything that I have said this day phase has been met with some incarnation of I must be stupid to think that. My thoughts on how the mass claim wrt to the scum chat, and then several other things when I started casing syugar. And then I saw jpeg and bella both kinda agree that I was not making good points.
Then I sat down and put so much time into trying to figure things out, and was hit with syugar once again dsmissing what I saw, and then your "you're scum or can die for being ridiculous" and it tipped me over to being properly upset.
And then I read every post from you starting with the "fuck off" post as shouting at me condescendingly.
Post
Post #1487 (isolation #243) » Tue May 31, 2022 6:45 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1482, syugar wrote:I don't really understand how you find everyone scummy either, that feels disconnected from the experience of everyone else in the game three of them being town at a minimum
I am struggling to find the answer, and after looking through catboi's iso I felt like I didn't have a single bedrock town read I could start solving from anymore. I started with a town read on catboi, but when I went looking for if he could be scum I found it.
When I was really really sure that you were scum, bella looked like a shining beacon of towniness in comparison. But then, when I went looking for if she could be scum, I found it.
And while I pulled myself out of my hard tunnel on you, I am still not convinced that you are distinctly more likely to be town then the rest, and when I look at your iso I see the same issues that I had before.
Post
Post #1490 (isolation #244) » Tue May 31, 2022 6:53 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1483, syugar wrote:"I am not seeing a single post that would preclude catboi from voting jpeg at some point that phase"
I'm also not sure how you think this, at the top of my head 1113 was pretty emphatic - "stop overanalyzing teams and vote for the easy slam dunk"
You're asking me to believe that catboi was elliptically willing jpeg to be eliminated and I simply don't see it, so the case feels externally motivated or like pushing a square peg through a circular hole
That is not where my scum worries on catboi started tbh.
I was originally thinking that it was weird how much he has been commenting on his inability to come up with a solution. It felt way more then I have seen in any game. And, then I wondered if it actually came from trying to lean into that Bigger Presence / Smaller Prescence conversation that we had.
Then I was thinking about the case that he made against me, and that it was weird that he spent so much time talking about doing isos and rereading, but then his final solution was me, and part of the ammo that he used against me was that I "latched onto" your solve of jpeg+GM, when that simply wasn't true since I had that as a solve before you did. And I questioned if he was really looking at me that closely if he did not catch that.
And then I saw where he said that killing Bella, and bella being town, would be hell for him, and where you questioned him on it, and it also seemed really odd.
And then I saw where he seemed to think that if he went to elo, he was going to be voted -- but no one was suspecting him, so it seemed like a guilty conciounce.
And then, I started reading through his iso in the lens of "what is he doing if scum partnered with GM" and it felt like all those pieces were slotting into place.
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Post #1491 (isolation #245) » Tue May 31, 2022 6:55 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1490, Lukewarm wrote:And then, I started reading through his iso in the lens of "what is he doing if scum partnered with GM" and it felt like all those pieces were slotting into place.
And this is the that part about him not wanting GM to go through.
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Post #1492 (isolation #246) » Tue May 31, 2022 6:57 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1488, syugar wrote:Okay, well what I think that is if you're town here you should just vote Bella because neither of us have the best odds to beat her in ELO. There isn't really a chance we elim catboi and you'd be throwing the game by giving Bella the f3 hammer if you eliminated me. Catboi's never not voting you here. After all of the arguments that've been dispensed that's the best olive branch I can offer you.
Do you see that from my pov, this could be scum you setting yourself up for the win?
I vote Bella, elo is you+me+catboi, and thats that.
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Post #1496 (isolation #248) » Tue May 31, 2022 7:02 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1493, syugar wrote:The empathetic answer to this concern is that this is literally one of the hardest town games I've played in the last two years. It was out of my comprehension that this gamestate would even exist, and if you really distrust that a towny wouldn't know what to do here I'm not sure how that can be shaken. Freezing close to elo also isn't even uncommon for him, certainly not out of townrange by a long shot. He has confidence and choking issues.
It was not limited to this day phase. This that I noticed on day 3 was part of that thought
In post 1025, Lukewarm wrote:I feel like we should wait for catboi to finish what he is doing before we kill gm here
not sure what I'm doing has a ton of value but we can at least give gm a chance for a defense
You seem to be really down on your solving abilities this game - and I am not quite sure how to interact with it.
I for one have a high opinion of your reads, and am interested in seeing them - I mean our first ever game together you managed to single handedly turn the game direction around to killing the last scum, despite the entire rest of the thread thinking they were confirmed town.
T02 also seemed interested in getting your reads this day phase.
In post 1493, syugar wrote:The empathetic answer to this concern is that this is literally one of the hardest town games I've played in the last two years. It was out of my comprehension that this gamestate would even exist, and if you really distrust that a towny wouldn't know what to do here I'm not sure how that can be shaken. Freezing close to elo also isn't even uncommon for him, certainly not out of townrange by a long shot. He has confidence and choking issues.
It was not limited to this day phase. This that I noticed on day 3 was part of that thought
In post 1025, Lukewarm wrote:I feel like we should wait for catboi to finish what he is doing before we kill gm here
not sure what I'm doing has a ton of value but we can at least give gm a chance for a defense
You seem to be really down on your solving abilities this game - and I am not quite sure how to interact with it.
I for one have a high opinion of your reads, and am interested in seeing them - I mean our first ever game together you managed to single handedly turn the game direction around to killing the last scum, despite the entire rest of the thread thinking they were confirmed town.
T02 also seemed interested in getting your reads this day phase.
Don't really know if that's proper, there are a lot of things he could've meant by that, but I still don't find it unusual
It once again feels like I am completely unable to communicate with you.
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Post #1504 (isolation #251) » Tue May 31, 2022 7:17 pm
Postby Lukewarm »
Like, your response feels like you think that the thing that I cared about was the line "not sure what I'm doing has a ton of value but we can at least give gm a chance for a defense"
When that was not it.
It was the way that through out day 3, he was not putting himself out there to be a Big Prescence. Both in the way that he repeatedly said that he was rereading and doing isos, but wasnt done, and since he wasn't done he could not take a solid stance. And also the self deprication of his reads. Then combined with the way he started making comments this day phase.
Like, that is a Cohesive Thought that I had about his General Approach to the game starting following our conversation on how I should town read him.
----
And your response was that that single sentence was not unusual.
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Post #1554 (isolation #256) » Wed Jun 01, 2022 2:34 am
Postby Lukewarm »
Voting Bella feels like betting the entire game on the fact that exactly Bella is scum, because if we are wrong, I am always voted out in the catboi/syugar/luke elo... and I am not remotely confident that Bella is scum.
--------
I think that I am back here: VOTE: syugar
I cannot bring myself to trust him. I find myself feeling like he does not believe the things that he is saying.
In post 1286, syugar wrote:doesn't seem like bella is interested in solving the game, isn't really engaging with posts today and is just writing simplistic justifications
sadly i think because of catbois lingering fos on lukewarm today if i go over elo is pretty strongly weighted in her favor
luke looks less partnered with gm the more i reread and talked with him today, largely for reasons i already believed in yesterday and just threw aside, i didn't really have any logical edge against him when we were arguing and his points related to yesterday's vote make sense
the case building gm was doing with catbois slot strongly makes me believe they arent partners so bella being gms partner may just adhere more strongly to occams razor despite the fact she was one of the jks
Like, I he said this, but I feel like he simply has not played like he ever actually believed this. From casing me soon after, to repeatedly saying that every thing I was doing was "outing" and "digging my own hole deeper." To landing back on me being 85% scum.
This feels more like a justification for moving him vote from me -> Bella then a genuine read/take that he had.
-----
And then, when I was working on my catboi case, he chimed in with
I think it's hard because you're holding onto a scumread on me that's becoming more and more untenable as the day progresses
In post 1432, syugar wrote:But it's interesting because as I become closer and closer to trying to towncore with catboi and solve the game by PoE it makes scum REALLY have to get me elimmed today
Which feels more less like he actually cares to see what I have to say, and more like he just wants to discredit any points I might have to bring up against him.
------
And in general, the way that he has bounced between trying to get me elimed to trying to get Bella elimed just feels bad. Like, he is going for which ever one would work. Going after me (1182) when catboi was there (1163). Then going to Bella (1285) after catboi unvotes (1219) and Bella and jpeg both say that they won't vote me.
It feels like his only focus is getting himself and catboi to elo. And I think that him and catboi making it to elo is likely best case scenario for scum!syugar, especially since he had already compiled meta that he thinks would convince catboi that he had to be town here.
In post 1323, syugar wrote:we've hit the point in the game where I'm polarized as town and this just isn't my scumgame, and I have stuff ready to send to catboi to show him that and kick him in the pants.
And even looking at what makes him absolutely convinced that catboi has to be town here.
In post 1184, syugar wrote:full disclosure, if we eliminate luke today and he's town, i'm probably gonna vote bella within 5 seconds tomorrow, don't see catboi/gm as filler and i thought a few things in the thread were too corny to come from that pair, ggwp if you tricked me although it'd mean i played fairly horribly
team's pretty much impossible though fmpov
Like, this is enough for him to be this sure in a game that he describes as "literally one of the hardest town games I've played in the last two years."
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Post #1556 (isolation #258) » Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:01 am
Postby Lukewarm »
In post 1516, Cat.Jpeg wrote:Someone who knows Catboi (syugar but also anyone else), tell me, ignoring everything else from this game, would catboi be open to doing a crazy bus at the start of this game if he and GM were partnered?
To answer this, I have seen catboi bus the ever living shit out of his team before when he thought it was what was needed to win.
Day 1 was a double elimination, and we managed to kill 2 scum. Then Day 2 we killed third scum. And he was vocally on all three. So, by the end of Day 2 he had bussed three of his partners
This was a big part of the reason why he was my strongest town read that game, as him and I felt so in synch the entire time as we killed scum after scum. It bought him all the way to Elo, where he only lost because both other players had mechanincal innos on them -- but, both players were worried that the mechanical inno on the other person was faulty because they had such a hard time seeing catboi as partnered with the 3 scum that had been flipped.
That being said, he clearly did not want to bus off all three of his partners, and it was done for strategic reasons based on the way that they were playing and how they were being read.
Scum!Luke never turns on you here. He never softens on syugar, and camps there to the end of the phase, and then bella and jpeg have to chose between killing me or syugar - and I am pretty sure that I just win that based on their reads.
Or alternatively, I just turn on Bella. I spotted enough that i mentioned just now when syugar asked where I could have easily done that. You have been weivering between us this phase.
And like, it feels like you are not actually asking if scun!luke would have done any of the things this game.
Would scum like kill syugar into bella?
No. I fucking saw the worst's post. I would have killed him every time. He was hinting a pr and he scum read me (and maybe gm, I'm not looking back right now) and we are in a column with a cop and a jk.
And even if I decided to pass on the worst here, I kill you over syugar OR bella here. You are the only player on this list that had any experience with me, and i think youbare a good player, and i would fear kill you for it. Plus you were scum reading gm.
Would scum luke argue for the massclaim?
No. I would be terrified that me or my partner- which ever didbthe kill- was jailed. Like, that is literally what happened to me in my first scum game on site. A newbie game, and the jk targeted me night 1 and I promptly died day 2. In my experience before this game, the jk always seems to use it aggressively, not defensively
AND I would have the easy excuse of leaning hard into the idea that the no kill made the difference.
Would scum luke kill off his partner instead of going for jpeg day 3?
No. The idea of that actually terrifies me. I have never been solo scum in any game ever. I distinctly would rather if one of us goes down, it's me - and my partner looks good for it.
The funny thing is how true each of these statements are. I wanted to kill catboi both nights, but decided to listen to gm instead.
I was against the mass claim until enough people checked in that I no longer thought that the jk was on me.
And I very much wanted to set GM up to win instead of me riding it out solo
