Newbie 991 - Newbieville! (Game Over)

[reluctant]

This is my first game so please let me know if I fumble about too much. The answer to the questions:

1. Which is the best Mafia gambit for scum: Claim Doc or Cop in a standard set up at a time when they are in the hotseat

I read through 3 games while waiting for confirmation and the time I saw it work a scum preemptively claimed cop before he was in the hotseat during LyLo, so I'm going to go with claiming doc.

2. What do you think of the consistency of oatmeal

I love oatmeal, especially with buttermilk, banana, and walnuts.

3. What are your thoughts on sharing the scum buddy Quick Topic with the entire MS community at end game?

I think it could be interesting and probably allows n00bs the chance to learn so I am all for it.

I'm going to VOTE: Anton just to be different.

[reluctant]

Are there ever any useful answers on day 1? You can never assume anything is truthful and the town doesn't have anything to go on expect for hunches related to a players statements, demeanor, defensiveness, activity, etc... It might just be my naivety but I think the 3 questions are as good a way as any to get things rolling.

While I appreciate your humor (especially post #3) and your argument I find your unwillingness to offer any alternative scum hunting mechanism as scummy

FoS: Aranneas

.

[reluctant]

You voted for Anton "just to be different" which suggests you had no real reason to vote for him.
You then actually pointed out things that Aranneas said that you called scummy, but only chose to FoS him. Why wouldn't you vote someone who has done something scummy? Do you consider Anton still more likely to be scum then Aranneas? If yes, why? If no, why are you still voting Anton?

You're correct. I didn't have a reason to vote for Anton as he hasn't appeared in Thread. I chose him randomly to differentiate myself from the obvious scapegoat vote (what a great choice for a name). Between Anton and Aranneas, I think it is pretty close. On one hand Aranneas is awfully active (I somewhere picked up the notion that scum tend to lurk more), but I don't find him productively so. On the other hand Anton hasn't done anything, is he lurking or just LA? If pressed I would've probably put Aranneas as slightly more likely to be scum (maybe 30% as opposed to the normal 25%), but with a low enough confidence that I didn't see the point of switching my vote away from my original random vote. Perhaps I would've changed my mind when Anton appeared, if he even bothered to answer the original 3 questions.

Another note, as an aside, both with Aranneas and Thor665's vote I found that my first knee jerk reaction was to OMGUS vote back. Perhaps my unwillingness to vote was in awareness of that reaction and an effort to not bow to it?

I just realized these statements could be badly misread and want to clarify before it has any potential to get out of hand. I am not in any way endorsing an immediate mass claim. The identity of any power roles the town may or may not have is information that is currently hidden from the mafia, and it should stay that way as long as possible.

Also it looks like rvs is over. UNVOTE: scapegoat

I whole heartily agree with the first part of the above quote. I think the 2nd part of this is even more scummy than earlier statements. Declaring an end to RVS? With only 5 people having posted (and only 3 of those actively so). I agree that we should lynch day 1, but I don't think that we're ready to do it without hearing from everyone. Doesn't a quick lynch usually help scum more than town? UNVOTE: Anton VOTE: Aranneas

I realize the irony of making a non-random vote for someone declaring RVS to be over. I'll just note that while I feel Aranneas to be the most scummy I am far from convinced that he is scum.

[reluctant]

Now that's just a complete misrepresentation of what I wrote. How on earth did you get to "we should lynch as quickly as possible" from "people have started to post content"?

Putting it the way you did, It certainly seems as though I made a bit of a logical leap for which I apologize. I certainly was not trying to misrepresent what you said.

I do not advocate we go for a quicklynch. At all. And I do not see anything in that post that indicates I do. As I said previously, we want random voting stage to end as quickly as possible, because it means we are all actively contributing to the discussion and therefore increasing our chances at actually finding someone.

While you never advocated a quick lynch I felt as though declaring a premature end to RVS (before everyone had even posted!?) was headed in that direction. Maybe it was an observation more than a declaration? I'm not sure, but in either case it rubbed me the wrong way and gave me a bad feeling, which I stand by.

I'd also like to note that I'm not attempting to over-vilify your actions, which I hope I made clear when I said:

I'll just note that while I feel Aranneas to be the most scummy I am far from convinced that he is scum.

Either way, you've removed any reluctance I had to vote for you. VOTE: reluctant

I really hope I find someone else to be more scummy because I seriously enjoy your humor.

[reluctant]

So, reluctant didn't initially vote Aranneas because of concern that the vote was partially OMGUS oriented?

Perhaps in part yes. A lot goes into weighing a decision. At this point I had

FoS

'd him just to be clear (though as Thor pointed out in post #17 I had a random vote on Anton at that point.)

Hm...how is: voting someone specifically for declaring RVS to be over considered Ironic?
Is it that their declaration happens to be what gets them a vote?

Specifically a non-random vote, yes.

Also, you think that Aranneas has been scummy, but you don't really think Aranneas is scum?
Yet you apply a vote instead of an FOS/HOS?
Why?

I'm not convinced he is scum. He is my leading candidate, but I'm still am not certain. I had already

FoS

'd him and felt as though this additional act brought the threshold up high enough to vote. Why am I not convinced? It is possible I'm reading too much into things and I realize that. At this point it is just an inclination. It's possible that anyone could be scum, I've removed no one in my mind as a potential mafioso.

[reluctant]

Thor is also interesting, because he's an IC, and so it's really difficult to get a read on him. So far, nothing particularly scummy from him, and again, I agree about Reluctant. His stats about scum chances also seem to make more sense, it's certainly not a hopeless situation for anyone, and there's no reason to no lynch. In fact, suggesting that is scummy, because the only way to win is to lynch, and scum are likely to succeed on their NK, so no lynch really benefits scum more. So far, hard to say what I think of Thor, but he's leaning more towards town.

Re-reading through some of the posts and I had similar thoughts to this. I'm certainly getting a town (or at the very least a scumhunting) vibe from him. His stats are correct from what I can tell assuming the wiki is correct too regarding game win percentages. Though his ICness makes me think he might just be good at misdirection, perhaps I'm putting too much weight on it. The 2nd part of your argument seems a lot like WIFOM assuming I'm reading it correctly, though perhaps you just misread? I read Thor's statement as saying we certainly should lynch.

Mrs Sak seems like a scared townie, though I'm not ruling out the possibility he/she is scum, because they might just be trying to scare the town.

She seems a bit defensive to me as well which I'm not sure how to take. I'm also having a hard time handling the repeated arguments to not lynch. It is possible that she is town, but also possible that there's quite a good deal of misdirection going on.

Anyway, the votings up until now have been:

willows - Thor
Aranneas - goat
(Travis - goat )-unvoted
reluctant - Anton
Thor - reluctuant
(Aranneas - goat)- unvoted
reluctant - Aranneas
Aranneas - reluctant
Sak - Thor
goat - Aranneas
Travis - reluctant

By voting pattern, there is something about the Aranneas- Travis pair that I don't like. While their reasoning might be different , sometimes the said reasoning is used for appearance only, in order to convince other people to vote against a townie. Since it's harder to trace back during the first two days, and people often badwagon, it is much ore likely that the mafia would vote for the same person.
Notice how they both unvoted scapegoat and concentrated on reluctant instead. Travis unvoted first because he didn't want things to go very far, but I believe aranneas unvoted second because the votes were already all over the place. Reluctant, who was already voted by Thor and who voted Aranneas, would be, in this situation, a perfect target. Travis' vote followed, of course.
unvote: Thor
vote: Aranneas

The argument used against Travis / Aran, would it not apply equally well to me / scapegoat or to Thor / Aran? I'm not sure if there's anything to this or not but I'm glad to see someone is looking at it (and I also appreciated the informal vote count). Maybe it would be worthwhile to add to your examination Town read or Town vibe pairs as well? The more I think about it, the less sure I am that this information is truly helpful. It seems to me that the town isn't going to lynch anyone in the next couple of real days, so why pile on so soon as scum? Wouldn't it be a bit premature / reckless? Not saying that they aren't scum, just not sure if there's much to the argument.

[reluctant]

I'll spare you my knee jerk response of you looking at some games and deciding you had a feel for the average.
The statistics can be found in the forum Mafia Discussion and were posted by the user AGar. I'm too lazy to bother going on a search in order to provide a link.

This is what I saw, and in the 2nd post it a link to the original data from AGar. I hope others will find it useful.

[reluctant]

I will be trying for more reads today but there's not a lot to go on I haven't already commented on.
...
@Mod: How long before a prod is warranted on willows_weep?

I will try to make more reads later today or tomorrow as well. I feel there is probably not much to go on too, but maybe in reading back I'll pick up on something else.

Restating in bold to make sure it is seen:

@Mod: How long before a prod is warranted on willows_weep?

[reluctant]

As the one who appears to be the most likely person to get voted off on day 1, I'm not really sure how to go about making my death benefit the town. If anyone has any suggestions please let me know. After a re-read of many of the posts here's my current thoughts about the players.

• Right now I'm getting a bit of a scummier read on
  Thor665
  due to his continued pushing for a lynch w/o hearing from everyone. Maybe we'll never get anything meaningful out of DukeJupiter though so it is hard to blame him too much. And he is obviously convinced I'm scum and also the obvious de facto town leader.
  
  
• Aranneas
  struck me earlier as slightly scummy, since then I've gotten more of a town vibe off of him.
  
  
• Who knows about
  DukeJupiter
  ??
  
  
• Not much to go on w/
  Anton
  , but a townish read so far based on his post, and a scummy read based on post count.
  
  
• Coach Travis
  is giving me a town vibe.
  
  
• Mrs Sak
  town read, though still suspicious. Perhaps it is just a brilliant misdirection?
  
  
• Got a very scummy vibe from
  scapegoat
  's latest post.
  
  
• I don't know what to think about
  willows_weep
  , so null read right now.

Based on my latest reading of things I'm going to UNVOTE: Aranneas and VOTE: scapegoat

[reluctant]

Read: better than when vanilla gets lynched.

That is true for the cumulative stats for all newbie games, but not so for the F11 games.

Also interesting is based on pure luck a day 1 lynch should give you a goon 22.2% of the time. The stats show that goons are only Day 1 lynched 19.8% of the time. Towns are worse than random at picking scum. This makes sense as the scum are also there to influence things, just interesting to see it appear in the stats.

I didn't realize the roleblocker had such a large influence on the game. When a roleblocker is killed day 1 the town wins 72.73% of the time as opposed to just 53.1% when a plain goon is the first killed. Maybe because if there is a roleblocker there is 50% chance of there being both a cop and a doctor (practically more so because it seems mods don't use setups truly randomly and the 7 vanilla townies game is played 22.4% of the time as opposed to the 25% we'd expect).

All of my above comments were based on the F11 stats. I love numbers.

[reluctant]

@Mod previous vote count appears to be wrong. Scapegoat voted for me too

I also sent a PM, sorry if this comes across as nagging.

It was already fixed when you posted this. >_>

[reluctant]

It was already fixed when you posted this. >_>

My apologies, I should've double checked the refresh before I clicked submit.

[reluctant]

I think the vote count for scapegoat is now at L-1 with me, Aranneas, Thor and Coach Travis voting.

[reluctant]

I forgot to UNVOTE: Scapegoat to escape L-1 ness. It's been a long day already.

[reluctant]

Scapegoat is the only one I'd be willing to consider right now, but I'd still prefer holding off a bit if possible. I'd still like to hear more from Jupiter (or his replacement) and Anton.

[reluctant]

Scapegoat is the only one I'd be willing to consider right now, but I'd still prefer holding off a bit if possible. I'd still like to hear more from Jupiter (or his replacement) and Anton.

If scapegoat were magically removed from the game and we were suddenly at deadline - who would you vote for?

In this crazy hypothetical situation If we were at deadline in 15 minutes, I'd bandwagon on whoever had the most votes to try to get a lynch before day 1 ended, this would include myself. I think even a bad lynch is probably better than no lynch based on the stats mentioned above. If there wasn't a clear target to bandwagon on I'd vote either you or Anton, whichever I felt would get more support for a lynch, so probably Anton.

I'm curious as to your response to this hypothetical question as well.

[reluctant]

You shouldn't vote for town - voting for yourself is (let us presume) a vote for town - why would you vote for town?

I think even a bad lynch is better than no lynch. If we were at deadline I would vote in any way I could to avoid a no lynch. If there were 4 votes on me and I lived b/c a deadline happened people would still suspect me the next day and that would be a distraction. If I died everyone would know my role / alignment and then that gives them concrete information to go on and stops me from being a distraction.

I judge by this answer that you have no real clear feel for a second scummiest player - what are you intending to do to get a better read off of the other players? Just answering my questions doesn't seem like th emost proactive way, does it?
...
What have I and Anton done to make us worthy of a vote?

You're right, I don't have a strong feel for 2nd scummiest. The reasons I mentioned in post 74 are still the reasons I would use to vote you or Anton. I've been trying to ask myself what information I'd gain from scapegoats death if he turns out to be scum and what information I'd gain if he turns out to be town. I haven't come up with much yet, though maybe seeing the reaction of the players and who gets NK'd will help.

I guess you are right, I'm probably not being proactive enough. I'm still new to this and I'm not sure how to get more information besides providing content and hoping that others will do the same. I'd like to see more posts from Anton & Jupiter, and to a lesser extent willows_weep & Mrs Sak but I can't make them post. Hopefully any discussion will make other people chime in, which gives us more to base our decisions off of. I will also probably go back and re-read everything again at some point and provide updated reads when I think it useful.

In your lack of inexperience as an IC, how often do games have players who just fail to participate and is there any correlation between participation level and alignment? I've spent some time thinking about that, wondering what could make one post less? Personal reasons (too busy, broken computer, etc), disappointed with role (thinking a VT role is lame), boredom (turns out forum mafia isn't for me) or fear (of saying something scummy) is what I've come up with.

[reluctant]

@Thor I see you put Coach Travis on your lynch desire list. I'm interested to hear why. So far he seems to have been suspected by others very little. I certainly haven't ruled him out, but I got a pretty strong town vibe from him.

[reluctant]

It is going to be difficult for me to get used to the new people. I apologize in advance if I get messed up.

scapegoat (or reluctant, who can tell them apart )
Anton
Coach Travis

When you say you can't tell scapegoat and reluctant apart, does that mean that both are in your top two? I thought you said you didn't find reluctant scummy anymore.

I believe this was a joke referencing him getting our names messed up earlier. If you start at this post and note that the BW was on scapegoat at the time of the post it makes sense.

reluctant: I'm still a bit suspicious of him. I don't like his willingness to lynch scapegoat yet, and I especially don't like the fact that he named Anton as his second choice, both of which are total newbie fodder slots.

In the crazy hypothetical situation I'd choose Anton b/c it appeared I'd have more support to get him lynched. I suspect Thor about as much as him, though I'm not certain about either.

Reading through your post and realizing that you are scapegoat are the same player I'm feeling scummier and scummier about you.

-Ah, I think I see why scapegoat's got such a wagon on him now. Putting reluctant at L-1 that early was a bad move, but scapegoat's a newbie, and said himself that he didn't find anyone scummier. And the wagon switched onto him HELLA fast. If that's not a sign of scum trying to jump on the easiest lynch, then I dunno what is.

-Aaand scapegoat's at L-1. I understand it, but you guys. Putting someone at L-1, claiming when not at L-1, AtE arguments... this is the classic easy newbie mislynch.

-Scapegoat's throwing a hissy. Again, classic newbie mislynch.

Your implyng that we only

incorrectly voted

for scapegoat / you because we are newbies and making a mistake, either that or scum. This just strikes me as a really defensive, manipulative play. Combine that with how scummy I already felt on scapegoat (no, I'm not going to be manipulated by his replacement to change my scum tell on him) and VOTE: EarthIntruder

[reluctant]

I skip out for a day and a half and there is so much content. That is exciting, I'm glad to see the replacements participating so much. To answer an earlier question regarding my scum feel for Thor it is pretty weak. It was based on phrasing that I lead to see him pushing for a lynch before we had heard from everyone. I also am just somewhat distrustful as he seems to be the de facto town leader (or did, it is appearing like that less so now), everyone seemed to jump and do everything he said. Just made me nervous. Regarding Anton he had a nice post, then responded quickly to something else, then kind of disappeared. Just the way it happened made me think that it was scummy lurkiness. But there's been many people telling me since then that it isn't a scum tell but a null tell.

I can kinda understand the argument against Coach Travis, but I'm not sure I agree. Seth came in for Duke Jupiter and immediately tunnelvisioned on him w/ barely any argument as to why. Am I just a huge newb for not seeing it?

Here's the vote info as I went back and read it (I hope I'm not making a mistake): Thor voted for me, then Araneas did ~3 hrs later, then Travis did the next day. Scapegoat's came 4 days later. On the switch to scapegoat's BW it went: Me, Thor later that day, Coach Travis w/in an hour and then Aranneas the next day. It appears like Aranneas & Coach Travis seem to pile on, if the argument is against Coach Travis, why does it not equally apply to Aranneas? What's the scum team?

I'm going to have to go back and re-read everything that has happened recently before I give out more thoughts on the replacements.

Also EarthIntruder's explanation of the phrase 'newbie mislynch' makes sense to me. It still seemed a bit similar to an AtE action to me and still rubs me the wrong way. I'll unvote to take him back down to L-2. I'm still pretty willing to bandwagon him, but I want to read the last few pages more closely. UNVOTE: EarthIntruder.

I'd also like to hear thoughts on the scapegoat/EI and Coach Travis BW from Aranneas and willows_weep.

[reluctant]

Reluctant, you haven't answered my questions much. Not sure if you actually saw them or not, so I'll reiterate:

-Reluctant, is your second choice for a lynch still Anton, or have you changed your mind?
-What about your vote on Aran, since he was your last vote before the scapegoat/me wagon, how do you feel about him now?
-What's your opinion on the replacements (besides me, of course, I think you've already established that one)

You sort of answered the first one when you talked about people saying lurking is a null read, but not exactly directly. I get the impression I'm still your first choice, so I'd really like to know your second one now.

I haven't changed my feeling about Anton much despite everyone telling me I should, though I'm going to try to give less credence to it out of deference to everyone else's experience. It just seemed so odd to me at the time, it made me super suspicious. I'll figure to get more information from his replacement.

Seth replaced in for the non-existent DukeJupiter. He picked Coach Travis as his target and then tunneled in on it pretty heavily. Looking through it, I don't see it as any different than an argument against Aranneas (I think I mentioned this in my previous post and am hoping for a response), though Coach Travis tended to have shorter posts, maybe his succinctness hurt him in people's mind? I have a mostly town read from both Travis and Aranneas (would like to see more activity out of him re: replacements), though I'm not convinced about anything. If Coach Travis is scum, I would

highly

suspect Thor to be his scumbuddy. Back to Seth, I think that tunneling in on someone is an interesting strategy, and I'm not sure what I think of it. Coming in late like he did gives an advantage b/c he can pick a player who some others are suspicious of and just target. He didn't have to participate in the super RVS phase. I guess what I'm saying is it is an equally good strategy for scum or town coming in halfway through D1. I don't have any experience to tell me how to view it, so my gut likes his responses to Thor (though not to Cirno), so I am tending more townish ATM.

I'm getting a pretty much straight town read on Cirno / Mrs Sak. Though like I said above I haven't really ruled out anyone.

I realize I haven't answered about who my 2nd vote would be on after you. The reason is my suspicion level drops off pretty strongly after you. I would like to see more from Anton's replacement, willows_weep & Aranneas, but with those caveats I would probably choose Thor, followed by Anton, followed by Seth, but those are pretty weak reads in my mind.

[reluctant]

Regarding the replacements... the first game I read through when I learned about this site was this one. It had 9 replacements and at times was near impossible to follow. We're up to 5 and here's hoping we don't have any more.

[reluctant]

@zipper, @cirno, @seth
In this post I review the voting patterns on the reluctant BW and the scapegoat/EI BW. Can one of you explain to me why the voting pattern indicates CT more than ever-lately-absent Aran? Or is it the seeming in game coaching (see what I did there) that Thor has given CT that makes you suspect him more?

[reluctant]

Great post Sundy.

Here's another discomforting post from Reluctant, where he says he'd lynch himself. He's suspicious of Thor and Anton, and I'm not at all clear as to why he dropped his Aran suspicions.

I'm a newb, this is my first game, so I'm very much learning as I go. Do you mirror the opinion of everyone else who chimed in that it is better for a town to allow a no lynch rather than lynch themselves? I dropped my Aran suspicions because they were pretty weak to begin with (as I mentioned a few times), and I felt like his actions afterward were town-like. I would certainly like to hear more from him now.

So she denies the interpretation of her behavior that leads to her being townie (Coach Travis & Thor), and instead goes with Aranneas, who calls her "suspiciously defeatist." An interesting choice... And my thoughts after finishing the thread are that:
1) Interesting that her replacement also chose to deny the path that cleared her
2) Mrs Sak denied Thor's interpretation wherein he so happily cleared her (wrong, imo)

I don't think I understood this, could you clarify? How could her replacement deny or confirm her previous playing style?

!!! RELUCTANT HAS NO VOTES ON HIM? Craziness.

Everyone jumped ship when Thor did. Does that strike you as Thor being scummy, or those who jumped with him as scummy? The only one who had mentioned a Thor & Reluctant scum team is Thor. Do you see that as likely? More likely than a reluctant & scapegoat/EI team or Thor & CT?

What are your thoughts on the CT bandwagon? How about how it would compare with a potential Aranneas bandwagon?

[reluctant]

I would not rather set myself on fire than vote Thor or Coach Travis. I tend to think Thor is more scummy than CT, but maybe our two tunnelers would actually contribute something useful if we lynched CT? I would prefer Thor, but weakly so. I haven't cleared anyone, but I think my overall preferences have switched a bit and I'm now thinking:

EI/Scapegoat <--- still think they are scum.
Cirno/Mrs Sak <--- I need to do another ISO read when I have more time, but something about Cirno just screams oddness to me. Maybe it is just switching between talking in first and third person?
Thor <--- I'm not sure what I learn if he ends up being scum? Who do we go after? CT, Aranneas?
Seth/DJ <--- tunneling pretty hardcore, not a fan of it, especially coming in late.
ZipperFlesh/WW <--- same story as above. ZipperFlesh seems to have more content in his posts though.
CT , Aranneas <--- both of these I still have mostly town reads on. Aranneas, can you post something, anything, please?
Anton/Sundy <--- I like Sundy's posts, I'm going w/ mostly town.

Would anyone rather set themselves on fire than vote Cirno, since a possible lynch on scapegoat/EarthIntruder seems to have lost steam?

[reluctant]

Why do you have a town read on CT & Aran?

I think CT's posts were really good, especially early on, and I've only gotten a town vibe from him. Almost all of his posts, though short, have good content. I understand the suspicion w/ the vote following, but Aranneas was doing it as well, and in my mind just as blatantly. If anything CT is slightly more suspect b/c of plausibility of the in game coaching going on between him and Thor. If CT is scum, I think it is likely that Thor is too b/c of that coaching, but I don't think it is necessarily likely that CT is. I also think that if it turns out that Thor is scummy it doesn't necessarily say anything about CT, does that make sense?

Aranneas, besides really early on, has seemed pretty townie to me. I would

really

like to see more from him right now.

What are you thoughts on Cirno? What are your thoughts about the super tunneling that you and Seth are engaged in? What makes that maneuver more town than scum, especially coming in late.

[reluctant]

I would not rather set myself on fire than vote Thor or Coach Travis

. I tend to think Thor is more scummy than CT, but maybe our two tunnelers would actually contribute something useful

if we lynched CT?

CT , Aranneas <--- both of these I still have mostly town reads on.

Aranneas, can you post something, anything, please?

Yay for contradictions

No contradictions. I mean, setting myself on fire? I'd rather do many other things than set myself on fire. I have a mostly town read on CT, therefore I would prefer to vote Thor out of the two. If we did lynch CT instead, maybe it would lead certain others to be more useful, which makes me more willing to lynch him than Aranneas, though I have about the same read on the two.

[reluctant]

So you are willing to lynch someone who you think is town on the offchance that two lurkers who ( FYPOV; assuming 'not a fan of' = scum) are likely scum will contribute more?
Is that more or less it?

If by willing you mean more willing than to set myself on fire, that is what I said. I would prefer Thor b/c I think it is more likely that he is scum. I was, however, asked about Thor & CT. I don't know if you and zipper are scum or not, I can't tell either way by you (especially your) & zipper's posts, b/c they have almost no content. I hope that if CT is lynched you two would contribute more, yes. Deadline is coming up, as I've said multiple times we need a lynch of some sort. My preferences are clear (I hope). Any questions?

[reluctant]

Just because you're trying to get me lynched does not make you scum. I'm suspicious of you, but I'm not sold on you being scum. I think you're tunneling a bit over me, and that makes you look scummier than you really are. I'm not about to waste the town's IC over a silly case of tunnel-vision.

Why make these comments here, without commenting on the obvious tunnel-visioners, those who have voted only for 1 person? They are seth and yourself. What are your thoughts on Seth then? He is obviously tunneling, do you also find him to be active-lurking?

[reluctant]

Informal vote count:
Thor (3) : Sundy, EarthIntruder, Cirno
Zipperflesh (1) : Thor
Coach Travis (2) : Zipperflesh, Seth
Seth (1) : Coach Travis
EarthIntruder (1) : Aranneas

Not Voting: reluctant.

Time is running out. I think any lynch is better than no lynch, but I'm not thrilled with either the CT or the Thor lynch. VOTE: EarthIntruder because I still think he's the scummiest player, but I'm looking for other viable options. Especially Cirno, though there doesn't seem to be a bunch of interest there. I'd be willing to consider Seth or Zipperflesh over CT, not sure about over Thor.

[reluctant]

@Mod - Anton?

Anton was replaced by Sundy. It just wasn't specified in the first post. I'll ask though:

@Mod - Aranneas??

@CT I'm also not thrilled about the Thor lynch and prefer EI or Cirno. I agree with you and will also hammer if necessary to avoid a no lynch.

[reluctant]

VOTE: Seth I've been fairly townish on CT all along. I can't believe that Seth can't offer better reasoning now that Thor's flipped town. He and zipper are now topping my scum list. Would still like to hear more from Aranneas.

@mod: Aranneas??

ps. Thanks KittyMo for filling in for a bit... sorry if you felt unappreciated by me coming back in. What an odd situation...

[reluctant]

Reluctant, why do you find seth scummier than Zipper?

Because I feel like zipper while tunneling on CT, has at least been willing to discuss other options. Seth, for the most part, has not.

[reluctant]

What is lylo, please enlighten me.

Here you go

@Seth, what are your thoughts related to CT now that Thor has flipped Town? Care you elaborate on your reasons, have the flips given you any new information at all?

@Everyone, what are your thoughts on the Cirno NK?

@CT if we follow through the logic that mafia go after people other's don't suspect who else would they have targeted if not Cirno? Why not go after Aranneas, Sundy, or EI? What, if anything, made Cirno special? Also Cirno was #2 on my scum list prior to NK (though it might not have been known I was coming back in, so that might not matter)... what does that say about scum's thoughts on me?

[reluctant]

Not a post in over a day So, we've got two votes on Seth and two on CT.

@Sundy what are your thoughts on the BWs?

@mistergreen You willing to lynch Seth (once we hear from his replacement of course)?

[reluctant]

Vote count should be this, see post 502.

Coach Travis (2): zipperflesh, Robbnva,
seth (2): reluctant, Coach Travis

Not voting (3): Sundy, mistergreen, EarthIntruder

[reluctant]

doh, sorry, I just copy/pasted, then changed, didn't mean to use mod colors... whoops

[reluctant]

@mistergreen. Even the mod had made vote count mistakes, I don't see that as necessarily scummy and a bit of reach to think it so.

@EI Seth and Zipper and my top two right now, seth more so. I'm honestly still not thrilled with you and would still be willing to lynch you as well as Seth or Zipper. (Preferably Seth). I'm still getting strong town reads on CT. Fealing a teeny bit more scum-ish on the mistergreen/Aranneas spot right now than when it was just Aran.

ok I am seeing some inconsitancies.

1. reluctant first says he is new but his play and his posts do not look that of a newbie

This is my first game, but it took a while to be confirmed, during that time I read through 3 complete games, which gave me some insight to verbage, the wiki, etc.

2. reluctant said somewhere that if we were close to a deadline he would vote for whoever had the most votes, however his last post before the deadline is avoiding the thor bandwagon, despite having the most votes. he even mentions that time is running out.

I also said I wasn't thrilled about the Thor lynch. I would've logged in and lynched him as necessary as I had good access that day, but yeah, I was hoping to lynch EI or Cirno instead.

3. And all he does through out the first day is basically say I sort of think thor is scummy but only a little bit but when the time is near he doesn't think thor is a good lynch anymore.

Yeah, I had some concerns about the Thor spot, he was my #3 target after EI and Cirno. Let me know if any of that doesn't make sense.

[reluctant]

but what CT was doing is making sure he got in on the 2 bandwagons but he avoids the one on thor, that makes me seem more like he didn't want any blood on his hands.

CT, and the other two bandwagons can't all be scum. I don't understand this scenario... by your logic shouldn't he have at least avoided one of the other two BWs as well?

[reluctant]

wow, that was unexpected... not to say I'm upset, Seth/Robb was my top choice, just didn't expect to see it so soon.

[reluctant]

I think the key is to not vote early. If you are town, and you happen to vote one of the other 2 town, the scum can vote pile and end the game. I'd like to hear from everyone... especially zipper and sundy.

[reluctant]

This is tough b/c I've basically had town reads on everyone left but Zipper. And all of my scum reads ended up being town.

@Sundy regarding scum teams what do you think of a possible mistergreen/CT scum team? Remember during all the voting stuff early on they seemed to be the bandwagon hoppers (well, Aranneas back then) and they have both seemed to refrain from commenting on each other. I've gotten a pretty strong town read off of them, but with my track record I'm not going to let that stand in the way of suspicion.

[reluctant]

It was a holiday weekend. And what was your question, what can you say to defend yourself? I think you would try to do something like try to convince people of the scumminess of other players, etc. Instead of setting us up in a potentiality bad situation. In the (admittingly unlikely) scenario that both you and CT are town, two scum can come along and win the game rather easily. I hope to find time soon to go through and do more thread reading to try to make a better educated guess. Right now I'm not going to focus my suspicion on you... for whatever reason I'm inclined to think that you are bad town instead of bold scum.

[reluctant]

Yeah, It seems that it is

incredibly

likely that either CT, or Zipper is scum (possibly both, though doubtful?).

@Everyone else without voting, which of the two do you find more likely to be scum?

[reluctant]

Reluctant, what do you think of my post about possible scum-teams?

I think the me/CT one is impossible. I find the zipper/CT one to be unlikely. Those are the only two you mentioned, or did I miss something? For whatever reason, perhaps gut (I really need to do more thorough backreading) I'm leaning towards a CT/mistergreen team.

[reluctant]

Sorry I haven't had a meaningful post in a little bit. I'm in the middle of a complete thread re-read and I hope to post my conclusion before too long.

[reluctant]

2 players (Zipperflesh & reluctant) have supported the idea of a Coach Travis/mistergreen scum-team. If either one of you want to explain your views a little bit more, that'd be appreciated.

Right now it is basically gut, and the fact that I've been wrong pretty much constantly so far. As stated above i'm (slowly) doing a thread re-read, taking notes, etc, and may have new opinions then.

Reluctant: in post #601 you said you had town reads on everyone but Zipperflesh. In post #606 you say you think he's bad town. Could you clarify your thoughts more explicitly?

I think basically for a while now I had scummy reads on EI, Cirno, and to a lesser extent Thor, Seth/Robb & Zipper. I think if he is town, he's playing poorly, hence bad town. I think that if he's scum, he's playing in a very bold manner, hence bold scum. For whatever reason, I have no backup (maybe yet?) I leaning towards the belief that he's been play town poorly.

Travis, why did you say it was "understandable" for Zipperflesh to vote for you based on tunnel, but also "risky" because scum might end the game? Surely from his perspective, it's not "risky"??-- especially considering your read of the game.

It is still risky from his point of view, b/c zipper could be wrong. If zippers wrong, scum double vote and game is over.

Maybe that's just me, but I"d rather no-lynch than kill someone who I thought was good.

I so disagree with this so much, no lynching is such a bad idea. There are 9 people, after 3 NKs we have 6 people. If we kill 2 of them (and 1 no lynch) we have 4 people. If no scum are killed scum win. Basically you have 3 chances to kill scum, why only try twice. If there's enough support later on to kill the person who didn't get killed (lynch thor on day 2 in this example) then an opportunity for another vote was literally wasted. That and you can never be 100% sure about anyone (but yourself) until that person flips.

[reluctant]

I see what you mean, but

thinks

is different than

knows

. Still risky.

[reluctant]

mg, sundy, I see you suspect zipper. zipper and ct suspect each other (obviously). I still am leaning towards CT / MG. though it is really only based on gut. I re-read through this entire thread, and I've got nothing new based on my entire re-read.

I think one of zipper & ct is scum (possibly both). If both are scum voting for either is ok. If only one of them is scum I think it is CT. The reasoning is b/c I know that I'm not scum, therefore one of mg & sundy is and is pushing for the vote on zipper, the other innocently, the other not so, but can't make the first move otherwise they will look suspect. I know right now that what I'm doing looks crazy, but I think this is the best for town. VOTE: Coach Travis I really hope I'm right.

[reluctant]

Very interesting... wow, here's hoping I was wrong about my read on the situation.

[reluctant]

well, my final analysis was correct, just picked CT's partner wrong. Bummers. Fun game though, quite enjoyed my first time.

[reluctant]

haha, yeah, super questionable hammer by zipper. MG is there anything different I could have said in post 634 to convince you? CT, Sundy, want to chime in on any points that made you specifically nervous? Any disagreements about NKs, etc?