Newbie 1484 (Day Two)

[I Love Fairies]

I haven't actually played a Mafia game before, but I did skim over a Mafia game over the forum that I used to visit fairly often. Personally, I really liked Day 1, and I thought it was the most important Day. Past Day 1, all interaction between players is influenced by what lynch was chosen, and what Night Actions were recorded. Day 1 is different, because there is no information to base anything on, it's harder for mafia to disassociate themselves with each other because they have extra information and no other information to use as a backdrop for fake activity.

In the one game that I read, Day 1, a player acted much like Bulbazak did, and a player acted much like Hopkirk is. The player that acted EXACTLY like Bulbazak turned out to be scum, and the player acting like Hopkirk turned out to be a vigilante.

As Day 1 is often a random vote, any evidence, no matter how trivial is important. That possibly trivial evidence makes the lynch pattern less random. As a result, I feel that Bulbazak is slightly more likely to be scum than any other player thus far. Keep in mind, depending on how many scum there are, this may still be in the neighborhood of just 40% likelihood of being scum over 33%.

However, I will hold off on voting because I didn't actually check to see how many votes he has. I'd rather drag out Day as long as possible so we can get as much interaction with him as possible and so we can allow others to add as much input as they wish.

While this is not a vote, count this as an intent to vote.

[I Love Fairies]

I'm an idiot. I totally skimmed over the vote count.

vote:Bulba

[I Love Fairies]

Whether or not there is a vig in the game is irrelevant to my point. My point was that the player in that game that you are emulating turned out to be scum.

I'm not entirely sure how I'd define how you're acting, but I guess the closest thing I can define it as is...trying to hard? What I mean is that the pressure you're applying to Hopkirk is over extravagant and it is obviously serving very little purpose. I see your behavior as more of a way to attempt to establish town cred for pressuring someone.

Hopkirk is mostly just acting in an OMGUS manner. As in, he's entirely defensive and isn't putting as much pressure on you as you are on him. While I don't really consider the vast majority of his pressure to be valid (I really don't think your first posts here indicate you as scum or town). An OMGUS from a new player who has probably even less knowledge of the game than I do makes me think that he's town. New town players from what I've observed get a lot more frustrated than new scum, veteran scum, or veteran town.

[I Love Fairies]

Emulate was the wrong word to use. Your behavior, however, is reminiscent of the player from the game I observed.

I'm not saying that I think you're scum because of aggression. I'm just thinking that the aggressiveness might be exaggerated and/or badly motivated (as in, scum motivated).

I was under the impression that all of us were new besides yourself. I may need to go back and read. Yes, my opinion is altered with my newfound knowledge that he is not new. :p

Once I have access to my computer again (shouldn't be too long, an hour or so) I'll reread the thread, look at your behavior and Kirk's behavior and more accurately align my analysis with the available information.

[I Love Fairies]

Good to know, thank you.

[I Love Fairies]

I've just gone through the thread again and I'm now not so certain about Bulba's alignment. As it stands now, I see 2 townies arguing with each other. However, I will not unvote as nothing either of you has said has led me to believe you are town either, putting everyone at an equal footing of 22% chance of being scum (2scum/9players).

We have a considerable amount of time left in Day (the game I observed had 48 hour Days, 24 hour Nights) so I see no reason to rush votes too much. If I see Bulba gaining any more votes than he currently has, I will probably unvote.

Hopkirk:
33 - This attitude is where I'm getting the OMGUS feel from. I understand the frustration, but I'm also aware that frustration of that manner (especially when no one will listen even if CERTAIN about something) begins to result in less logical arguments and more emotional ones. While perhaps not the correct definition of OMGUS, I don't have another term to say that arguments are closer to emotion than they are logical.
36 - I wouldn't say strawman, perhaps a complete disregard or misunderstanding of my posts, but not straw man. However, I'm mostly just going off semantics here, your point stands. I'm still trying to determine if the possible misunderstanding of my posts is intentional or not (I'm weird, I write in a weird manner, I think in a weird way, and I have serious issues communicating my thoughts, so misunderstandings happen to me on an alarmingly regular basis).
37 - I view the current situation as pressure. Perhaps not a directly logical pressure, but how I see it, Bulba is intentionally ignoring parts of your arguments and leaving out information in his posts to wear you down psychologically.

To be honest, I kind of just...skipped that portion of his post. I didn't think much of it and perceived it as a joke. However, basing an argument or trying to use my viewpoint as evidence is folly because I tend to look at things in a different way than others (for good or worse, usually both).


On a side note: I enjoy this game already.

[I Love Fairies]

Well, it is 3:00am and it does not seem as though anything more of note will happen tonight, so I'm off to bed. Unfortunately, as a college student with a bizarre schedule, I really don't know if I will have time to post tomorrow. It's possible that I'll have all of tomorrow to post. My point is that you should probably not read into any random disappearances from me.

[I Love Fairies]

Mmmm, I'm not really bogged down on the numerical side of this. My use of percents, probability, and statistics allows me to less than randomly vote on people if I'm uncertain. I feel math is a very integral part of this game and while it's not true statistics, how people act change what % trust I put them at. Beyond that, I understand the situation, but I'm not very good at writing out my thoughts, and numbers let me communicate my general idea more than me trying to blunder about with explanations.

Bulba, what do you mean by "posturing"?

[I Love Fairies]

If I truly wanted to disallow people from getting a read on me, I wouldn't post at all, or at very least, I would post sparingly.

I'm not taking out the personal aspect of the game, I'm just attempting to explain the personal aspect of the game with numbers.

What makes the distinction between you being defensive and Bulb acting "far too defensive"? As in, why do you believe your defensive behavior to be justified while his is not even though both of you have a similar defense?

[I Love Fairies]

How I see the situation at the moment is 2 town players bickering at each other. However, I'm well aware that they could be the scum team trying to set up town cred for each other for "arguing with each other".

Yes, I'm leaving myself flexible for switching over to votes because nothing is concrete yet and as new evidence becomes clear, I'll adapt my opinion to the new information. It's interesting how you're accusing me of keeping myself open for switching my vote, yet you've switched your vote in each of your posts so far. Percentage is 2/9 because I was taking an objective stance and stating that each of us had an equal chance of being scum. From my viewpoint, it would be 2/8 as I would disclude myself as I know myself to be town.

[I Love Fairies]

Well that was stupid. Voting without a reason is not beneficial for anyone other than scum.

[I Love Fairies]

If I truly wanted to disallow people from getting a read on me, I wouldn't post at all, or at very least, I would post sparingly.

Interesting that you would think this way. How would you say the Mafia would act then?

I would imagine they'd be a lot quieter and the input they would give would be more meta game and setup based than specific.

[I Love Fairies]

Actually, I'm quite okay with this lynch. Those who would be willing to go through with this lynch are very likely to be scum. The reasons for voting me are highly illegitimate and already contradictions and inconsistencies have shown themselves with your pressure on me. I'm willing to trade my life for a much clearer picture of who is scum. It's a good trade off.

I'd be willing to bet that either Hopkirk or One (perhaps both) are scum based on their reasons given for wanting to lynch me.

If this lynch does manage to go through, I'd like this post to be referenced.

[I Love Fairies]

Now I'm having doubts on I Love Fairies. Thesoctorisin's post is obvscum, and Hopkirk's is strange as well.

While I did see Fairies as scummier than the previous people when I voted for her, I didn't see her trying to create distrust.

Also, Fairies, you shouldn't just say "lynch me". You should convince people not to lynch you, since it only benefits town to lynch scum.

Anyways, Thesoctorisin's post is opportunistic. Onto the wagon I go!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Thesoctorisin

That is L-2. Do not forget to state L-1 and intent to hammer, if anyone else finds Thesoctor suspicious.

The posts that you and Thesoctor have made are kind of what I was hoping to see when I made that post.

VOTE: Unvote
Vote: Number One

Oh, and sorry about my disappearance, I've had a long few days.

[I Love Fairies]

^^ aaaaand I totally screwed up my vote, but you guys get the gist I hope.

[I Love Fairies]

My vote. I meant to unvote and vote Number One, but I guess I mistyped or something and it came out looking stupid. Same result, I just formatted incorrectly.

[I Love Fairies]

Now I'm having doubts on I Love Fairies. Thesoctorisin's post is obvscum, and Hopkirk's is strange as well.

While I did see Fairies as scummier than the previous people when I voted for her, I didn't see her trying to create distrust.

Also, Fairies, you shouldn't just say "lynch me". You should convince people not to lynch you, since it only benefits town to lynch scum.

Anyways, Thesoctorisin's post is opportunistic. Onto the wagon I go!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Thesoctorisin

That is L-2. Do not forget to state L-1 and intent to hammer, if anyone else finds Thesoctor suspicious.

The posts that you and Thesoctor have made are kind of what I was hoping to see when I made that post.

VOTE: Unvote
Vote: Number One

Oh, and sorry about my disappearance, I've had a long few days.

Can you be more specific? What were you hoping to see? Why vote numbr1?

Yeah, sorry. I was looking for people to use bad reasoning to jump on an easy lynch (such as myself). Number One and Thesoctor have fulfilled both jumping on an easy lynch and not giving adequate reasoning for their votes.

I voted Number One for a few reasons:
1. He flip flops his vote nearly every single time he posts
2. He seems like he's just looking for an easy lynch
3. His reaction to my bandwagon and my posts in general lead me to believe that he's scummy (this is partially tied into gut feel)
4. Hopkirk is the only one who is supporting my lynch that I would say has used actual reason, Thesoctor and Number One either have bad motives or are just being misled by others
5. Number One has less votes than Thesoctor and I didn't want to put us at L-1 already

The three main players who are advocating my lynch are Hopkirk, Thesoctor, and Number One. I feel as though Hopkirk has decent reasoning behind his support of my lynch (regardless of how I feel about the validity of the logic). Thesoctor I feel like he's going mostly off of gut feel and from what I've observed, he's not of the personality to defend his own gut feel to the end, making him slightly easier to mislead (this isn't necessarily a bad thing). Number One, however, seems to not care about what others think, and I'm making that out to be more town than scum, but the fact that he is of the mindset to protect his own opinion to the end, I feel as though his flippy floppy nature is based less in logic and flexibility and more in ulterior motives (such as finding an easy lynch on someone that is not his teammate).

TL;DR: Number One seems more likely to have bad motives than anyone else, including Thesoctor.

Say something if that didn't make complete sense, I'm exhausted and really bad at explaining my thoughts.

[I Love Fairies]

I've been commenting on other things as well. Haven't you been paying attention?

Fine, but u guys have been harping on this thing for so long and just saying the same things over and over.

But I guess that's better than the people who haven't been posting @ all so whatever.

Who hasn't posted at all?

This Hopkirk-Bulba thing meant something at the beginning of the game because it gave a very small amount of insight into the players when there previously was none, but it's becoming unnecessary and counter-productive to continue with their current line of argument.

[I Love Fairies]

Who hasn't posted at all?

Didn't mean zero posts total. Just that alot of people have gone like 2 days now w/o posting.

Like me? :p

Seriously though, if I'm not posting, it's for a good reason (personal reasons, not game reasons).

[I Love Fairies]

Who hasn't posted at all?

Didn't mean zero posts total. Just that alot of people have gone like 2 days now w/o posting.

Like me? :p

Seriously though, if I'm not posting, it's for a good reason (personal reasons, not game reasons).

Also, she has been posting in other games.

This is what worries me. The other parts can be disregarded because everyone's activity can be different and can often vary from time to time.

[I Love Fairies]

Just saying, I'm not going to give a read on anyone this early in the game. If I ever do so it will likely be in defence of someone or as a reads list at the start of the next day phase. Though, honestly, I wouldn't say your best Town reads right now because that's just asking for them to be at risk of a NK.

When there's enough information for a scum lynch to come out of it from it, that's when the reads are given IMO.

Are you going to do anything this early in the game? What's your plan for finding mafia?

Gaaaaah! Everyone in the game that I observed always said the same thing and then suddenly, the werewolves won.

We're not going to learn anything if we all just sit back and say that we don't know how to find anyone or that we don't have a way to get more information. We get information by doing things like this.

Honestly, I feel like it's effective to post trust lists now because it's harder for the allied scum to place their teammates in a good standing with okay information. We can look back at the lists and make associations between players. That said, I'll probably post a trust list before I go to bed tonight, but as it is right now, I might be risking too much time by posting this. 0.0

[I Love Fairies]

Gaaaaah! Everyone in the game that I observed always said the same thing and then suddenly, the werewolves won.

We're not going to learn anything if we all just sit back and say that we don't know how to find anyone or that we don't have a way to get more information. We get information by doing things like this.

Honestly, I feel like it's effective to post trust lists now because it's harder for the allied scum to place their teammates in a good standing with okay information. We can look back at the lists and make associations between players. That said, I'll probably post a trust list before I go to bed tonight, but as it is right now, I might be risking too much time by posting this. 0.0

I'm querying LTO in particular because they're basically completely devoid of any sort of proactive scumhunt and I want to see if they just have cold feet or are scum that don't know how to fake it. Not sure why you'd get worked up over this~

And well, right now, she's very worthy of lynching, though I'm fine with my vote being where it is right now

I got worked up about it because misunderstood your post. I thought what you were saying was basically "I'm not going to say anything because we don't have anything to go off of because more people need to say stuff".

Rereading your post, I realize that I either managed to misquote, or I just misread.

Seeing as everyone is so opposed to posting a trust list, I guess I won't do so until Tomorrow.

[I Love Fairies]

In the game I observed, one player tried to post a reads list on day 1 and everybody else said wait for day 2. The only newbie player in that game was the one who tried to post the reads list so I think I will wait till day 2.

Not going to say anything about your wagon?

I prefer just to give scumreads rather than scaled townreads now.

How does what I said have anything to do with my vote on I love fairies?

You can reduce my name to either Ilf or Fairies, if you'd like.

[I Love Fairies]

Honestly, I really don't understand why Hopkirk is seen as the scummier of the two between him and Bulb.

I currently thing that Bulba is scummier than Hopkirk.

[I Love Fairies]

I find Bulba to be more scummy because Bulba has the most experience out of all of us, yet he really only responds to things that are directly related to him. Hopkirk, the less experienced of the two, adds his opinion to most conversations and I find that to be more townish than it is scum. Bulba really hasn't added a lot to the game.

Bulba seems to have a perfect excuse for a variety of scummy behaviors that I've called him out on.

[I Love Fairies]

I'm not even going to bother responding to Bulba at this point. His paraphrasing and taking parts of statements that I've made to create a different, easier argument to defend against. He's not reading my posts and he's trying to make me look scummy by responding to only fragments of a single argument. His posts are based around making himself look more like town and making others look more like scum rather than actually trying to find scum.

At this point, I'm more willing to lynch Bulba over Number One or Soctor.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bulba

[I Love Fairies]

Bulba, you cut a sentence in half, changed the meaning completely, and then responded to it.

Soctor is indeed at L-1. The three votes counted in the vote count provided by the mod, and Hopkirk's vote.

[I Love Fairies]

I don't think you understand how English works. They were not two independent clauses as proven by the inclusion of the coordinating conjunction 'yet' in my sentence. The clause following yet is a subordinate clause, in this case meaning that the information presenting in the first clause is altered by the second. Perhaps I should have structured my sentence using a more restrictive conjunction to prevent this issue. I'm of the opinion that you decided my argument would have been easier to deflect if you altered my argument.

While we're at it, could you link the post where Hopkirk unvoted? I could have sworn I saw him just recently change his vote to Soctor and leave it on Soctor.

[I Love Fairies]

If you'd prefer, I'll just rephrase my argument.

Even though you are the most experienced player, and thus, the player who should be able to provide the most information, you choose not to provide information unless it's directly related to you.

[I Love Fairies]

Vote Soctor

And that's 5/you're dead.
Bye.

This is super scummy given that discussion is still prevalent.

[I Love Fairies]

Vote Soctor

And that's 5/you're dead.
Bye.

This is super scummy given that discussion is still prevalent.

After a votecount... you don't notice it's a fake hammer how?

Explain why you think a fake hammer is scummy.

And thanks to the person who ruined it right away

I really think you're just trying to cover your ass here. If I noticed that it was fake, so did everyone else. You're trying to deceive people and in this manner, that's a bad thing.

I think a "fake hammer" is scummy because it serves no purpose and calling it a "fake hammer" means nothing to me. I know and you know and everyone else knows that you thought it was a real hammer. Now that we have taken out the fake in hammer, I'll explain why hammering in this situation is super scummy. Reason number one: information is the most valuable commodity in this game, and ending Day early ends discussion and limits the maximum amount of information the town can get. Reason number two: hammers and other decisions that make a big impact on the game (what targets a claimed cop should investigate, who should be lynched, when someone should be lynched, etc) should be decided upon as a group. You thought it was best if you did it on your own, without the group, giving the town little chance to make the decisions.

I'll reply to Bulba later tonight, but I gotta go for now.

[I Love Fairies]

While we're at it, could you link the post where Hopkirk unvoted? I could have sworn I saw him just recently change his vote to Soctor and leave it on Soctor.

Sorry, I must have misread it.

If you'd prefer, I'll just rephrase my argument.

Even though you are the most experienced player, and thus, the player who should be able to provide the most information, you choose not to provide information unless it's directly related to you.

I already answered this question in that post you are complaining about: I have not been providing information only when it's directed at me, which you would see if you looked through my ISO. Why do you want me to answer your question in one big paragraph, instead of 2 pinpointed sentences?

Honestly, I still feel like you're holding back on information and opinions. You're supposed to be the strongest player in this game, but you don't seem to be acting like it beyond your ability to deflect questions.

I want you to answer "my question" in one big paragraph rather than two "pinpointed sentences" because it is a paragraph. I organize the information I present into paragraphs. If I put my information in a paragraph, all of the sentences in that paragraph are relevant to each other and could have an altered meaning if taken out of context. Plus, you didn't reply to "two pinpointed sentences" you ripped apart a single sentence and completely changed the meaning of that sentence in order for you to disregard the original intent of the sentence.

Vote Soctor

And that's 5/you're dead.
Bye.

This is super scummy given that discussion is still prevalent.

After a votecount... you don't notice it's a fake hammer how?

Explain why you think a fake hammer is scummy.

And thanks to the person who ruined it right away

I really think you're just trying to cover your ass here. If I noticed that it was fake, so did everyone else. You're trying to deceive people and in this manner, that's a bad thing.

I think a "fake hammer" is scummy because it serves no purpose and calling it a "fake hammer" means nothing to me. I know and you know and everyone else knows that you thought it was a real hammer. Now that we have taken out the fake in hammer, I'll explain why hammering in this situation is super scummy. Reason number one: information is the most valuable commodity in this game, and ending Day early ends discussion and limits the maximum amount of information the town can get. Reason number two: hammers and other decisions that make a big impact on the game (what targets a claimed cop should investigate, who should be lynched, when someone should be lynched, etc) should be decided upon as a group. You thought it was best if you did it on your own, without the group, giving the town little chance to make the decisions.

I'll reply to Bulba later tonight, but I gotta go for now.

Trying to deceive scum... it's called a reaction test...
Fake hammers do serve a purpose and are relatively common (i've done several before+seen many if you want to look at old games), one time (off site, link if wanted) a scum on l-2 didn't notice it was fake and admitted they were scum.
"I know and you know and everyone else knows that you thought it was a real hammer" Fuck you. I take extreme offense at your implication I'm a fucking moron. That is exactly what you're saying if you thing I'm too fucking stupid to not look before placing a vote when there's a vote count saying l-2 and only my vote on the last page.

Pedit: Yeah intent to hammer. There was going to be intent and wasting time wasn't necessary.

No. I'm saying that you're not a moron. That's why I think that your action was scummy. Plus, making mistakes like that doesn't really make you a moron. Two weeks ago, I was slightly overcooking chicken (I'm AWFUL at cooking) and I looked at my best friend and exclaimed "You know, sometimes I wish I was human..." It took me a good 10 minutes to figure out why she was laughing so hard and why what I said was one of the stupidest things I've ever said. People do and say stupid things all the time, and a lot of that can be chalked up to simple mistakes, that doesn't make someone a moron.


@Jarjar: Honestly, I don't really consider them lurkers. Sure, they're less active than the rest of us, but they're still posting and their posting fairly consistently, I have a feeling they just don't tend to post a lot, for whatever reason.


Also, I apologize for disappearing for a good 3 days when I said I'd reply to something soon; stuff went cray around here.

[I Love Fairies]

^^^ Plus, if you think that I'm implying that you're a moron, wouldn't that mean that person who is the victim of the "fake hammer" would have to be a moron to not notice the votes?

You say that I'm implying you're stupid for not realizing the number of votes. Yet you seem to think that everyone else would be deceived. Do you really think that the rest of us are morons?

[I Love Fairies]

@Jarjar: When someone starts going for a policy lynch d1 alarms go off.

In mafia you calculate before any gambit. It’s a very common gambit.
The idea is that they would be expecting a real hammer (I went to all the bother of the “I’m not voting them yet as I don’t want them on l-1 yet so it would sound like I hadn’t voted them before). It could have working on him as 1.) He’s new so may not know it’s a gambit thus think it’s real (since he wouldn’t know to expect a fake hammer). If you’re not being careful then you may fall for it (the gambit I’ve seen work probably less than 5% of the time but there’s no downside really). If you spend a while preparing a gambit then you'll make sure it works. Other people not expecting it who think it's genuine will (very occasionally if done well) fall for it.

Right

Say you go to a bar. You go up order your drink, a nice regular glass of wine or something. You drink it and it tastes like crap. Want to know what’s wrong with it and the barman tells you they always put vinegar in the wine unless you ask them not to. Now if you’re a regular you’ll know how to avoid it. But if you haven’t been there before you won’t. If you’ve never been there before, never even been to a bar wine before and nobody tells you about it beforehand then you would probably drink the q. Unless you’re very careful you have a chance of falling for it.
Soc is new and probably hasn’t heard of a fake gambit before.
So there was a chance he’d fall for it.
Quite a good chance he’d drink the wine.
The wine in front of him.

I am sorry for the pun.

I honestly don't see it, but I guess you're right, I don't really see a downside to a fake hammer. Still, what matters is whether or not it is a fake hammer or not.

Plus, I'm new, and I managed to see that they put vinegar in the wine, so I doubt it ever really works.

So, questions. Ideally, I would like everyone to answer them (yes, that includes myself :V), but I have my doubts about that working tbh.

1) What do you think of the current lynch?

2) Depending on how doctor flips, who do you think would be a good suspect next phase?

3) Is there anyone you suspect of distancing? Explain.

4) Ditto above, but with buddying?

5) When do you think the best time for a full reads list would be?

6) Give your two scummiest reads right now, and say why.

7) If there is a cop, who do you think would be best to be investigated tonight?

8) Also, do you think it would be a good idea to have everyone announce

one

read sans reasoning at the start of next phase? Explain your reasoning.

1. Not really against it, but I would prefer a lynch on someone else.
2. I'm not really sure to be honest, I'll have to look over the interactions he's had with people recently.
3. Not as of yet, but I haven't had the ability to look too closely at this game.
4. Same as 3.
5. People have been saying Day 2, I still don't buy into the reasoning that Day 1 is a horrible time for a trust list, but unless someone gives me good reasoning to think otherwise, I'll say Day 2 is a good time.
6. Bulba and Number One. I've given my reasonings as to why in the past. Part of my reasoning regarding those two is partially rested in gut as well.
7. I'd investigate Bulba, but either Bulba or Hopkirk would work. Both of them in my opinion, have legitimately tried to get the other lynched. If one is scum, the other one may not be. However, that doesn't work the other way, if one turns out to be town, that doesn't mean the other is scum. It could just be two town fighting each other. Honestly though, I still feel like Bulba is scummy.
8. I'm confused as to what you mean here. Your question is probably clear, but I'm sick and very tired, could you rephrase that?

And JarJar just reminded me of another.

9) What is your opinion on lynching lurkers?

Lynching lurkers is a fantastic idea, but not if we have people who others feel they have valid reasoning against. Lynching lurkers also requires that we have lurkers. While we do have a few people who are low on post count, I don't really think anyone is lurking, my opinion of that might change Day 2 though. In our current situation, I don't think that lynching lurkers is a good idea.

I'm not entirely sure if I'll be able to post at all on Friday, so I'll make my final decision on who I'll be voting on tomorrow.

[I Love Fairies]

I really need to start wording my sentences differently, either your choosing to interpreting my posts incorrectly, or you're legitimately unintentionally misinterpreting my posts.

Even if my case relies on a burden of proficiency, that doesn't mean that it's incorrect: "Some players dispute that this is a fallacy. If the player in question does tend to find more scum as town than they do as scum, then by Bayes's Theorem the fact that they haven't found scum raises their likelihood of being scum themselves." You say that you haven't been just replying to things that concern you directly, but I feel like you're not genuine unless it's about you. It's hard to explain what I mean, because I'm not even sure myself what exactly I mean, but I suppose I can chalk most of it to "gut feel."

At very least, you've addressed why you haven't disclosed all of your observations/opinions. That is somewhat townish to address that, but I still think your wrong in holding back.

My point with the lurkers thing is this: lynching lurkers is only good if we have literally nothing else to go on. I was being a sarcastic smartass. Sometimes I forget that tone doesn't convey over text. =/

[I Love Fairies]

How do I edit? I made an awful grammar mistake and it's hurting me physically, mentally, and emotionally.

[I Love Fairies]

You don't edit your posts. It's to prevent people from cheating. If you need to make a correction, you do so in another post, generally using EBWOP (Edit by way of post).

I understand why that's a good idea, but I hate it. D:

It kills me when I see a major mistake in my writing and I can't correct it.



Hm, yeah, I guess I can admit fault then, Hopkirk, perhaps your "fake hammer" really wasn't all that scummy, and your posts regarding it lead me to believe that I was wrong about it being a mistake on your part. However, I still think it's a bad idea because it has such a low success rate and there is always the chance of accidentally outing a TPR.

[I Love Fairies]

I don't really agree with this lynch. I think there are worse choices, but I would still prefer Bulba or Number One. I'll be keeping my vote on Bulba. There are plenty of people who can still switch their votes, and we still have some time.

[I Love Fairies]

I admit to trying to get people to move their votes around. I still think that Bulba is scum. I guess I was wrong with both Number One and with <original, but I still think Bulba is scum.

I'm still confused as to why the remaining mafia member killed Number One. Was someone trying to frame me? Was it random? Was it because of something Number One said? Misdirection somehow? Any way, we should still look into what Number One said, especially in his last moments.

Let's see, throughout the Day, he voted <original, then moved to me, then soctor, then to catboi, and finally, <original for a second time. I honestly don't know what that means other than the fact that he was right with his original read (pun not really intended, but I'll go with it).

[I Love Fairies]

You keep posting like that, Bulba and I might change my mind about you.

Are trust lists feasible at this point in the game?

[I Love Fairies]

Not what I meant. :p

I meant like, a full trust list. I honestly am not sure about when it's a good idea to do a trust list.

[I Love Fairies]

Ohhhhh, I missed a comma. I meant to say that I would change my mind about Bulba if he continued to post in the way that he does. :p

Unless I'm missing your point again. Which I very well could be, I'm bad at these things.

I'll post a trust list sometime tonight (several hours) I don't have the energy or the time to do it right now.

[I Love Fairies]

Thesoctorisin - Everyone seems to think he's scum. I'm mostly unsure on him, but I'd be willing to swing towards thinking he's scum.
Docthorr - He doesn't seem to talk a lot. Either that or I seem to miss him. I don't like it when I can't remember people and I think it's scummy. Leaning scum.
JarJarDrinks - Townread. I have nothing that makes me think otherwise. However, me being as paranoid as I am, it worries me that literally nothing seems to be suspicious about him.
I Love Fairies - WELL I DUNNO ABOUT THIS ONE.
Hopkirk - Town. I don't entirely agree with all of his ideas and his reads, but he actually puts reasons behind his arguments, and that's townie to me.
catboi - Meh, I don't have much of an opinion on him either. Currently leaning town.
Bulbazak - I really can't figure out what exactly it is that makes me reluctant to read you as town. Just something seems...off to me. Still, it's unfair to place someone as scum on my trust list for literally no reason. Neutralish.

Yeah, you made that post after 2 other people indicated intent to hammer. You get no credit for the lynch.

I think trying to get credit for a lynch is stupid, and perhaps even scummy. The only reason I stated intent when I did and then hammered, was because Hopkirk and Soctor seemed to be dragging their feet, Original was not that strong of a PR read to derail a lynch, and I didn't want the day to end in a no lynch.

And with this, I'm willing to put Bulba at slight townread.

It's honestly frustrating me why I can't place why I think you're scum. I know there has to be something, there always is. The last time I felt like this, I was trying to figure out what I was forgetting; after doing tons of homework preemptively, cleaning the entire house, checking my phone, and checking with my best friend, my roommate came into my room and told me my water had been boiling for "forever." So I might be missing something, or I might just be super paranoid. It's possible I'm just being overly suspicious of you because of your ava. It's off putting to me for some reason.

[I Love Fairies]

An off note, what is your ava, Bulba?

[I Love Fairies]

Oh! That might explain it a little bit. I haven't actually read the books, but I do know that Artemis is a little brat. ;p Well, at least, that's how I was told he was like.

[I Love Fairies]

Also, you've mentioned "posturing" at least three times now, I'm guessing that you've missed the two questions asking what that is, so while it's quiet, could you explain what posturing is?

[I Love Fairies]

Oh! That might explain it a little bit. I haven't actually read the books, but I do know that Artemis is a little brat. ;p Well, at least, that's how I was told he was like.

THAT'S MY HERO YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT AND HE IS AN AWESOME GENIUS BUT STILL KIND OF A BRAT SOMETIMES.

70 POINTS FROM GRYFFINDOR

In all likelihood, I would be Hufflepuff.

Doc, if you'll remember back, Number One was the first vote on <original, Number One just voted off quickly until the bandwagon picked up steam.

[I Love Fairies]

Doc, if you'll remember back, Number One was the first vote on <original, Number One just voted off quickly until the bandwagon picked up steam.

Would anyone keep a vote on a scumbuddy for so long? And let it end in a lynch?
This just seems bad mafia play, imo.

I dunno. The game I observed was...interesting. There were four mafia, two serial killers. In the group of four mafia, one of the members

started

a bandwagon on his teammate. The reasoning was good enough on their part that the team member came within one or two votes of being lynched, and the one who started the lynch never backed down. Even when the votes somehow rolled off of him, his team member still had their vote on them. Perhaps it was a personal thing, but I don't think so, I think that they decided the risk was worth it for the town cred. Not saying that the same thing is going on here, but I'm still reluctant to place you as a town read based on voting record alone.

Why would you even think that speculating about prs in the game is a good thing for the town? Why do you want to pr hunt but say you don't want to scumhunt? The logic is anti-town.
Not going to confirm or deny i am any role for obvious reasons.

Confirming or denying speculation regarding your role would obviously be anti-town, but I'd say that Soctor's speculation is not necessarily anti-town. I'd dare say that while the town has to worry about who they think is scum, the mafia worry about misdirecting the town, while at the same time, looking for TPRs. Soctor's reasoning is not necessarily more valid than whoever the last scum is, and I doubt that they will take his word over their own for determining who could be the TPRs.

There are two catches in my reasoning here: one, Soctor's analysis lines up perfectly with whoever the last scum is and that confirms the scum's speculation and two, Soctor could always be trying to misdirect it onto someone who he believes is not a TPR. These reasonings put together to me mean that to a scum player, his speculation would mean nothing.

Oh sorry Jarjar I just reread it and understood why you were confused. I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote that sentence but you understand the gist of my post right?

I really didn't get the gist of the post Jajar was referencing either.

[I Love Fairies]

I was talking about doctorhh

And since I'm at L-1, and I'm most likely going to be lynched Im going to do some scum hunting

I believe that hopkirk is the town cop so that means there's a fifty% chance there's a doctor. If there is one they need to protect hopkirk tonight. They obviously didn't protect him last night since number 1 died.

Reads list
Hopkirk-town, cop
Bulba-now that I think hopkirk is cop, I really don't know what to think of him. So null
Jar jar-town. Scum hunting really well
iLF- null.
Doctorhh- scum. Already explained
Catboi-leaning scum. Not really any reason except gut feeling

When I flip town I say lynch catboi since he jumped on my wagon in about 2 seconds of JarJar voting me.

Trust list
ILF
jarJar
Hopkirk
Untrust list(?)
Bulba
Doctorhh
Catboi

Also I'm feeling much better about this lynch after this last post.

- As I just pointed out, the cop thing doesn't really make sense.
- His reads on DocH and Catbo are scum and leaning scum respectively. Yet he says we should lynch cat after he flips?
- ILF and Bulb are both null for him yet ILF is in his trust list and Bulb is on his untrust list


I think he's just scrambling, hoping he somehow can avoid being lynched. Wouldn't mind a hammer @ this point.

^ I did notice this. I was wondering about that. I'm still unsure about whether or not that is indicative of scum though. I guess at very least, I'll know after this game.

I don't see the point in ending the Day this quickly though.

[I Love Fairies]

In other news, that is probably the creepiest emoticon I've ever seen in my life.

[I Love Fairies]

Dat inconsistency though. I feel like things are mostly inconsistent that quickly if the thoughts were made up and splotted down, rather than held.

I'd honestly be okay with a Soctor lynch.

For the record though, I'm willing to believe his distinction between reads and trust list.

Also, Soctor, I believe that scum have a better ability to know what the setup is because of the MafiaMatrixSetup on the first page. For example, if the remaining scum is a roleblocker, they will know that they're up against both a doctor and a cop.

[I Love Fairies]

^^^ Oh, nevermind, not quite. The mod chooses either a column or a row, so the information that the mafia can get from the setup is more limited than I thought.

[I Love Fairies]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I wasn't trying to say that they can't narrow it down very well, I was just saying that they can't narrow it down quite as well as I first thought.

As to your reasoning against Soctor. Yes, you're right, there is no advantage to speculating who are TPRs, but I honestly don't think that it's stupid enough that it would be used as a technique to get others to unvote. Beyond that, in what other ways would it benefit him as scum to speculate? As I stated before, I don't think that scum would give any adherence to the speculation because if he's a townie, either he's trying to misdirect, or he doesn't actually know so his speculation is not by any means anymore right than the scum's.



I'm not very good at figuring out who is scum without numbers, so based on numbers alone, assuming no investigations (or at least, investigator doesn't claim before death), no missed kills, these are the two outcomes that we have:

As a group, we had a 2/9 chance of lynching scum. Day One, we lynch a mafia member (-1). Mafia made a kill (-1). 9-2=7.
7 people: 6 townies, 1 scum. 1/7 chance.
We fail. 7-2=5.
5 people: 4 townies, 1 scum. 1/5 chance.
We fail. 5-2=3.
3 people, 2 townies, 1 scum. 1/3 chance.
We got 'em! 3-1=2.
2 people: 2 townies. Town win.

As a group, we had a 2/9 chance of lynching scum. Day One, we lynched a mafia member (-1). Mafia made a kill (-1). 9-2=7.
7 people: 6 townies, 1 scum. 1/7 chance.
We fail. 7-2=5.
5 people: 4 townies, 1 scum. 1/5 chance.
We fail. 5-2=3.
3 people, 2 townies, 1 scum. 1/3 chance.
We fail. 3-2=1.
1 person: 1 scum. Scum win.

Obviously these aren't the only scenarios, because if we lynch Soctor and he's scum we win, or if he's not, but we get scum tomorrow, we win. These scenarios are just prolonged possibilities.

Don't be off put if the fractions are wrong, I'm weird when it comes to probability and fractions, while it's interpreted as correct in my mind, it's often not technically correct.

Simply put, we can afford two mislynches if all kills go through. Two mislynches might not be accurate if we have a roleblocker/doc/bulletproof. Numbers alone tell us we have around a 1/3 chance of winning if we base everything on luck alone.

[I Love Fairies]

What would be the point of that?

[I Love Fairies]

Well, there is no point in you not voting for someone right now. You're either going to get lynched now, or you're going to be able to deflect this lynch, not having a vote on someone will inevitably end with you lynched.

[I Love Fairies]

I would at very least like to hear from Catboi before we lynch anyone.

[I Love Fairies]

That puts us at L-1 for those not aware.

Perhaps the SEs being your top townreads is because they're SEs? :p They're more experienced and if one of them is scum, they'd be adapt at not revealing anything and making others think they are town, regardless of affiliation.

[I Love Fairies]

^^ Also, yes, you are correct, if we mislynch, we still have one mislynch before the scum win. If we get to that point, I'll do another analysis and figure out where we should go from there.

[I Love Fairies]

That puts us at L-1 for those not aware.

Perhaps the SEs being your top townreads is because they're SEs? :p They're more experienced and if one of them is scum, they'd be adapt at not revealing anything and making others think they are town, regardless of affiliation.

The Ic is generally more experienced than a Se so by that logic (he reads experienced as town) he should read bulb as top town not 2ns scum thus your logic is faulty.

Perhaps. Though I still feel experience would help town and scum alike seem more townish. It's not unlikely that there are players whose very nature and posting habits make them appear less town than those of similar experience. I was rationalizing more of a tendency, rather than a rule.

[I Love Fairies]

I can't hammer like this. Not a single post after my intent.
We still have a week in our day (That is a weird thing to type..), so I will postpone my hammer for at least another day. (It's still weekend. That can mess with peoples pc time.)

Yeah, I noticed that. >.>

Honestly, I'm mostly waiting for Catboi to show up. Please don't hammer until he shows up.

Also, I capitalize Day when referring to the Mafia Day. Otherwise, day is lowercase. Same goes for Mafia. If I'm referring to the overall game, I capitalize the M, if I'm referring to the scum, I leave it lowercase. I feel that clears up any confusion or oddities.

[I Love Fairies]

I can't hammer like this. Not a single post after my intent.
We still have a week in our day (That is a weird thing to type..), so I will postpone my hammer for at least another day. (It's still weekend. That can mess with peoples pc time.)

Yeah, I noticed that. >.>

Honestly, I'm mostly waiting for Catboi to show up. Please don't hammer until he shows up.

Also, I capitalize Day when referring to the Mafia Day. Otherwise, day is lowercase. Same goes for Mafia. If I'm referring to the overall game, I capitalize the M, if I'm referring to the scum, I leave it lowercase. I feel that clears up any confusion or oddities.

What do you mean with "Mafia Day"?
and capitalising isn't a great way to do it. You got me confused right away xD

I do like to hear/read from Catboi as well and of course from soctor...

Mafia Day meaning the week long time in a single Day. We are currently on Mafia Day 2 right now.

[I Love Fairies]

@ILF okay, a game day. I get that.

Why I didn't just say that is beyond me.

[I Love Fairies]

I don't entirely agree with your assessment of my play (it was bad, but not for the reasons you guys are saying imo), but eh. Good luck, all.

Doc, if you're in

, you know who to protect ^^.

Why isn't Soctor dead yet?

I'm waiting for Catboi. I don't think he's commented on the thread since early in the Day.

[I Love Fairies]

Mmmmmm, not really stupid reasoning for voting for me when you did. Day 1 there really wasn't strong reasoning for any of the lynches, it was actually pretty miraculous that we got enough evidence to lynch <original.

@Bulba: In a post prior to your last, you explained why you thought <ori was a bad mafia player, now, you that <ori was strong enough to work with a tactic that seems advanced and is probably super hard to pull off (requiring a strong mafia player). Seems contradictory to me, doesn't it? I feel it's one way or the other.

[I Love Fairies]

Sorry I was sort of an ass to you, Hopkirk and Bulba. I just wanted to make sure you guys know that it was entirely in the scope of the game and I felt guilty and awful the entire time I was ever even remotely rude. >.>

In other news, I have no idea how to spot scum apparently. xD

Thanks for the game, everyone. ^-^