Newbie 1484 (Day Two)

[JarJarDrinks]

After a reread, I just cant put fairies as scum. Yeah her voting and LTO read was suspect, but like every post of hers just screams town to me.

So anyway, I think it's gotta be between bulb and thesoctor. As long as we lynch the other if the first one flips town then I'm pretty sure we win.

vote Thesoctorisin

that is L-1

[Thesoctorisin]

I was talking about doctorhh

And since I'm at L-1, and I'm most likely going to be lynched Im going to do some scum hunting

I believe that hopkirk is the town cop so that means there's a fifty% chance there's a doctor. If there is one they need to protect hopkirk tonight. They obviously didn't protect him last night since number 1 died.

Reads list
Hopkirk-town, cop
Bulba-now that I think hopkirk is cop, I really don't know what to think of him. So null
Jar jar-town. Scum hunting really well
iLF- null.
Doctorhh- scum. Already explained
Catboi-leaning scum. Not really any reason except gut feeling

When I flip town I say lynch catboi since he jumped on my wagon in about 2 seconds of JarJar voting me.

Trust list
ILF
jarJar
Hopkirk
Untrust list(?)
Bulba
Doctorhh
Catboi

[JarJarDrinks]

I believe that hopkirk is the town cop so that means there's a fifty% chance there's a doctor. If there is one they need to protect hopkirk tonight.

They obviously didn't protect him last night since number 1 died.

huh?

[Hopkirk]

Why would you even think that speculating about prs in the game is a good thing for the town? Why do you want to pr hunt but say you don't want to scumhunt? The logic is anti-town.
Not going to confirm or deny i am any role for obvious reasons.

[Thesoctorisin]

Oh sorry Jarjar I just reread it and understood why you were confused. I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote that sentence but you understand the gist of my post right?

[Thesoctorisin]

Also Hopkirk. How is that horribly anti-town. I accidentally already stated it once and it's just my opinion. If you think that I am saying it because I am scum also doesn't make sense. And I said it yesterday and scum didn't kill you so obviously they don't think your cop.

[I Love Fairies]

Doc, if you'll remember back, Number One was the first vote on <original, Number One just voted off quickly until the bandwagon picked up steam.

Would anyone keep a vote on a scumbuddy for so long? And let it end in a lynch?
This just seems bad mafia play, imo.

I dunno. The game I observed was...interesting. There were four mafia, two serial killers. In the group of four mafia, one of the members

started

a bandwagon on his teammate. The reasoning was good enough on their part that the team member came within one or two votes of being lynched, and the one who started the lynch never backed down. Even when the votes somehow rolled off of him, his team member still had their vote on them. Perhaps it was a personal thing, but I don't think so, I think that they decided the risk was worth it for the town cred. Not saying that the same thing is going on here, but I'm still reluctant to place you as a town read based on voting record alone.

Why would you even think that speculating about prs in the game is a good thing for the town? Why do you want to pr hunt but say you don't want to scumhunt? The logic is anti-town.
Not going to confirm or deny i am any role for obvious reasons.

Confirming or denying speculation regarding your role would obviously be anti-town, but I'd say that Soctor's speculation is not necessarily anti-town. I'd dare say that while the town has to worry about who they think is scum, the mafia worry about misdirecting the town, while at the same time, looking for TPRs. Soctor's reasoning is not necessarily more valid than whoever the last scum is, and I doubt that they will take his word over their own for determining who could be the TPRs.

There are two catches in my reasoning here: one, Soctor's analysis lines up perfectly with whoever the last scum is and that confirms the scum's speculation and two, Soctor could always be trying to misdirect it onto someone who he believes is not a TPR. These reasonings put together to me mean that to a scum player, his speculation would mean nothing.

Oh sorry Jarjar I just reread it and understood why you were confused. I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote that sentence but you understand the gist of my post right?

I really didn't get the gist of the post Jajar was referencing either.

[JarJarDrinks]

And I said it yesterday and scum didn't kill you so obviously they don't think your cop.

So why should the doctor protect him then?

[JarJarDrinks]

I was talking about doctorhh

And since I'm at L-1, and I'm most likely going to be lynched Im going to do some scum hunting

I believe that hopkirk is the town cop so that means there's a fifty% chance there's a doctor. If there is one they need to protect hopkirk tonight. They obviously didn't protect him last night since number 1 died.

Reads list
Hopkirk-town, cop
Bulba-now that I think hopkirk is cop, I really don't know what to think of him. So null
Jar jar-town. Scum hunting really well
iLF- null.
Doctorhh- scum. Already explained
Catboi-leaning scum. Not really any reason except gut feeling

When I flip town I say lynch catboi since he jumped on my wagon in about 2 seconds of JarJar voting me.

Trust list
ILF
jarJar
Hopkirk
Untrust list(?)
Bulba
Doctorhh
Catboi

Also I'm feeling much better about this lynch after this last post.

- As I just pointed out, the cop thing doesn't really make sense.
- His reads on DocH and Catbo are scum and leaning scum respectively. Yet he says we should lynch cat after he flips?
- ILF and Bulb are both null for him yet ILF is in his trust list and Bulb is on his untrust list


I think he's just scrambling, hoping he somehow can avoid being lynched. Wouldn't mind a hammer @ this point.

[I Love Fairies]

I was talking about doctorhh

And since I'm at L-1, and I'm most likely going to be lynched Im going to do some scum hunting

I believe that hopkirk is the town cop so that means there's a fifty% chance there's a doctor. If there is one they need to protect hopkirk tonight. They obviously didn't protect him last night since number 1 died.

Reads list
Hopkirk-town, cop
Bulba-now that I think hopkirk is cop, I really don't know what to think of him. So null
Jar jar-town. Scum hunting really well
iLF- null.
Doctorhh- scum. Already explained
Catboi-leaning scum. Not really any reason except gut feeling

When I flip town I say lynch catboi since he jumped on my wagon in about 2 seconds of JarJar voting me.

Trust list
ILF
jarJar
Hopkirk
Untrust list(?)
Bulba
Doctorhh
Catboi

Also I'm feeling much better about this lynch after this last post.

- As I just pointed out, the cop thing doesn't really make sense.
- His reads on DocH and Catbo are scum and leaning scum respectively. Yet he says we should lynch cat after he flips?
- ILF and Bulb are both null for him yet ILF is in his trust list and Bulb is on his untrust list


I think he's just scrambling, hoping he somehow can avoid being lynched. Wouldn't mind a hammer @ this point.

^ I did notice this. I was wondering about that. I'm still unsure about whether or not that is indicative of scum though. I guess at very least, I'll know after this game.

I don't see the point in ending the Day this quickly though.

[I Love Fairies]

In other news, that is probably the creepiest emoticon I've ever seen in my life.

[Hopkirk]

There is no reason that voicing opinions on who could be prs/what prs they could be helps the town, it merely gives the killers ideas while not helping the town.
The way that soctor says he believes there to be a cop- and believes also he found a cop day one- suggest to me knows there is a cop and, as he clearly is not a pr himself, that knowledge is the knowledge that scum would only posses.

[Thesoctorisin]

@jarjar do you have a better person for the doctor to protect?

@hopkirk How would scum know there is a cop?

Didn't I give my reasoning for lynching catboi instead of doctorhh? if not here it is again, doctorhh is just a gut feeling. catboi jumped on wagon right after jarjar voted.

as for the trust vs. reads list, my reads list is based on facts (besides doctorhh although I

did

give reasons) and my trust list is based on feelings

[JarJarDrinks]

Didn't I give my reasoning for lynching catboi instead of doctorhh? if not here it is again, doctorhh is just a gut feeling. catboi jumped on wagon right after jarjar voted.

No that's not what you said. You said pretty much the opposite:

Doctorhh- scum. Already explained
Catboi-leaning scum. Not really any reason except gut feeling

[I Love Fairies]

Dat inconsistency though. I feel like things are mostly inconsistent that quickly if the thoughts were made up and splotted down, rather than held.

I'd honestly be okay with a Soctor lynch.

For the record though, I'm willing to believe his distinction between reads and trust list.

Also, Soctor, I believe that scum have a better ability to know what the setup is because of the MafiaMatrixSetup on the first page. For example, if the remaining scum is a roleblocker, they will know that they're up against both a doctor and a cop.

[I Love Fairies]

^^^ Oh, nevermind, not quite. The mod chooses either a column or a row, so the information that the mafia can get from the setup is more limited than I thought.

[Bulbazak]

Oh! That might explain it a little bit. I haven't actually read the books, but I do know that Artemis is a little brat. ;p Well, at least, that's how I was told he was like.

To be honest, I haven't read the books either (I probably should.). In a previous game, Maestro said that I always looked as calm as Artemis Fowl to him, and I changed my avatar as a joke. I liked it, so I kept it.

Also, you've mentioned "posturing" at least three times now, I'm guessing that you've missed the two questions asking what that is, so while it's quiet, could you explain what posturing is?

It's a weak preparation to push somebody or an agenda. I emphasize the weak part, because normally they'll have been wishy washy on the subject or have posted no opinion on it. It's normally pretty scummy, because it tends to be a strategic move, rather than one spurred by scumhunting. That's my interpretation of the term, anyway.

I did have the original vote on LTO

So?

Meh, you think a cop is really gonna straight u ask who people think should be investigated?

Those questions showed that Original was not really a great mafia player to begin with, so I wasn't discounting the possibility.

What about the questions made you think she wasn't a great mafia player ?

They were just too blatant. No experienced player would ask questions like that due to how easily they give scum information to help guide night actions. As I noted originally, the questions essentially screamed newb scum.

Would anyone keep a vote on a scumbuddy for so long? And let it end in a lynch?
This just seems bad mafia play, imo.

Bussing. It's a thing.

And since I'm at L-1, and I'm most likely going to be lynched Im going to do some scum hunting

I believe that hopkirk is the town cop so that means there's a fifty% chance there's a doctor. If there is one they need to protect hopkirk tonight. They obviously didn't protect him last night since number 1 died.

This is scum posting. There is no way dying town says "Btw, I think these people are the PRs.", as that would be playing against their wincon by telling scum where to shoot. However, the last scum about to die might do so, mostly to troll, but also in the hopes that people would unvote them thinking scum would not state something that stupid. There's literally no town motivation to post this or the rest of the post at all.

^^^ Oh, nevermind, not quite. The mod chooses either a column or a row, so the information that the mafia can get from the setup is more limited than I thought.

Scum can still narrow down the setups fairly well, and they're also more informed than the town.

[I Love Fairies]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I wasn't trying to say that they can't narrow it down very well, I was just saying that they can't narrow it down quite as well as I first thought.

As to your reasoning against Soctor. Yes, you're right, there is no advantage to speculating who are TPRs, but I honestly don't think that it's stupid enough that it would be used as a technique to get others to unvote. Beyond that, in what other ways would it benefit him as scum to speculate? As I stated before, I don't think that scum would give any adherence to the speculation because if he's a townie, either he's trying to misdirect, or he doesn't actually know so his speculation is not by any means anymore right than the scum's.



I'm not very good at figuring out who is scum without numbers, so based on numbers alone, assuming no investigations (or at least, investigator doesn't claim before death), no missed kills, these are the two outcomes that we have:

As a group, we had a 2/9 chance of lynching scum. Day One, we lynch a mafia member (-1). Mafia made a kill (-1). 9-2=7.
7 people: 6 townies, 1 scum. 1/7 chance.
We fail. 7-2=5.
5 people: 4 townies, 1 scum. 1/5 chance.
We fail. 5-2=3.
3 people, 2 townies, 1 scum. 1/3 chance.
We got 'em! 3-1=2.
2 people: 2 townies. Town win.

As a group, we had a 2/9 chance of lynching scum. Day One, we lynched a mafia member (-1). Mafia made a kill (-1). 9-2=7.
7 people: 6 townies, 1 scum. 1/7 chance.
We fail. 7-2=5.
5 people: 4 townies, 1 scum. 1/5 chance.
We fail. 5-2=3.
3 people, 2 townies, 1 scum. 1/3 chance.
We fail. 3-2=1.
1 person: 1 scum. Scum win.

Obviously these aren't the only scenarios, because if we lynch Soctor and he's scum we win, or if he's not, but we get scum tomorrow, we win. These scenarios are just prolonged possibilities.

Don't be off put if the fractions are wrong, I'm weird when it comes to probability and fractions, while it's interpreted as correct in my mind, it's often not technically correct.

Simply put, we can afford two mislynches if all kills go through. Two mislynches might not be accurate if we have a roleblocker/doc/bulletproof. Numbers alone tell us we have around a 1/3 chance of winning if we base everything on luck alone.

[Bulbazak]

I actually think Soctor is just trolling.

[I Love Fairies]

What would be the point of that?

[Bulbazak]

If he's caught, mainly just to mess with us. He knows the game is pretty much over anyway.

[Docthorr]

All this chatting about a doctor confuses me, but that is my fault for choosing this username

After the last few posts I really started to like Fairies, welcome in my town circle.

Soctor seems to be digging his own grave.

p-edit: wait whut?

[Hopkirk]

Scum rolebloocker would have reason to suspect a cop.
I have read the Artemis Fowl series.
Faries is in my town circle too. Docthorr doesn't stand out much but seems more town.

[Thesoctorisin]

Woooooowwwwwwwwwww! I am such an idiot!!!! I'm really sorry to whoever thought I was town (if there was anyone left who thought that ) because I basically just yelled "HEY, LYNCH ME!!!!!!!!!!!" And now we are about to lynch a townie:(

Let me explain (though I doubt y'all will believe me seeing as I wouldn't believe me). I did already explain doctorhh right? (Please remind me because I think I'm losing my mind) the reason I said to lynch catboi when I flip was because he jumped on my wagon so fast. I thought I had that written down on my reads list but apparently not. I said I would only vote doctorhh if (and only if) he a. Gave me more substantial reasons to, or b, I had no other scum reads.

So restate. I'm an idiot and I'm not trolling (well not on purpose anyway)

[I Love Fairies]

Well, there is no point in you not voting for someone right now. You're either going to get lynched now, or you're going to be able to deflect this lynch, not having a vote on someone will inevitably end with you lynched.