Newbie 1572 - Chicken Parmigiana Mafia (Over)

[Drixx]

It's rather uncountable how many games I've played. I've played live realtime mafia (in a room with other real people!) for the last 20 years or so. Forum mafia began 4 or 5 years ago.

Are you scum?

VOTE: Ika because it's RVS and he made me answer personal questions.

[Drixx]

I can't believe I forgot this in my first post. "Chicken Parm you taste so good."

[Drixx]

Just gut?

Gut applied Logic. Your "Am I scum?" felt appeasy.

I'm the one who said "Are you scum?" and I was making a point. There's no useful read from responses to that question. It's complete WIFOM, so I just pointed your own question back at you

[Drixx]

Just gut?

Gut applied Logic. Your "Am I scum?" felt appeasy.

I'm the one who said "Are you scum?" and I was making a point. There's no useful read from responses to that question. It's complete WIFOM, so I just pointed your own question back at you

Tryhard.

Is this supposed to be a bad thing?

[Drixx]

Welcome to the replacements

[Drixx]

Am I scum? I guess we will find out.

This answer just felt off to me. Sort of evading the question in a way.

You are a light town-read.

I'm neutral on you with leaning slight scum.

You've already said why you sllight scumread Pramitz. You haven't explained why you have those reads on them. Care to explain why? Feels/gut?

Just gut?

Gut applied Logic. Your "Am I scum?" felt appeasy.

I'm the one who said "Are you scum?" and I was making a point. There's no useful read from responses to that question. It's complete WIFOM, so I just pointed your own question back at you

Interesting reply though. To somebody who was saying something to somebody else and not you.

What was the point of saying whatever you said to Bitmap here? He was talking to Pramitz about why he read him as slight scum. The way you're explaining how you were making a point about your "Are you scum" question wasn't necessary. Bitmap hadn't even explained why he had slight scumread you. Feels like you're scum hastily trying to defend yourself from something that could've been a slip on your part.

I was just pretty sure Bitmap replied to the wrong person but was talking to me. I don't recall anyone else turning the question back around and pointing it at her. That's why I began the post by pointing out that I was the one who said it, not Pramitz. Also ... it feels like you're trying to scrape up some reason to justify a vote. FoS @ Zombiekitty

You are a light town-read.

I'm neutral on you with leaning slight scum.

You've already said why you sllight scumread Pramitz. You haven't explained why you have those reads on them. Care to explain why? Feels/gut?

ika felt town because scum players are more closed if meta is not applied.

Drixx felt scummy because he's appeasy as well and trying to get confirmation from the town.

This looks like poor scum play. Good scum can make cases based upon the behavior of other players and using logic. Bad scum players have to talk about "feelings" and make up reasons to vote.

Unvote

VOTE: Bitmap[/b]

Serious vote. Bitmap is slinging the proverbial pasta all over the place and trying to see what will stick. Classic first day scum play. Bitmap is also trying to claim that reading people for reasons that don't have anything to do with alignment is "a playstyle", which is a laughable defense. Bitmap then goes on the attack and calls someone who just replaced into the game "lazy". Bitmap = Scummy McScumpherson.

[Drixx]

VOTE: Bitmap

I don't understand why phpbb and VB have to have their preview and submit buttons swapped in places. It's just irritating for end users.

[Drixx]

Alright, I'm going to teach you guys about mafia because I'm going through one of those hyper-activity aggressive phases.

First off, go look at your role PM. Mine says I'm some form of town. (DO NOT QUOTE YOUR ROLE PM THOUGH)

Why the fuck do I need confirmation from other players if I'm town or not? I know I'm town. I don't have to appease anyone. I'm going to shit on people if they need to know if they're town because they're trying to suck up to the town in order to not get lynched. I'm going to post reads on what I think of people because why would I hide what I think about people? I'm town. I don't need to cherry pick my words. Scum has to cherry pick their words. This is why hyper-active people are usually town.

LAMIST much? The last line is an outright lie. Activity has no correlation with alignment.

[Drixx]

From what I can tell, Bitmap is either really BAD at mafia or is pretending to be. Be wary of anything he's selling as lessons (RE: Post #50).

First he's going to teach us about mafia, and the reason is that he's going through "one of those hyper-activity aggressive phases." - I can agree with the aggressive part. Apparently he's one of those people who uses profanity enough to make a sailor blush. Why? Reasons.

Then he tells you to look at your role PM and slips in not only a "Look At Me I'm So Townie (LAMIST)" but also throws in a bit of Wine with the "some form" bit, implying possible PR status. This is a decent play if he's actually a VT, because it might be enough to get team scum to kill him. It's also a decent play as scum because he's thrown out a breadcrumb super early in case he has to claim a PR.

Then comes the random profanity. Since Bitmap is playing dumb, I'll explain why townies need to read as townies: the town only gets a small number of mislynches before they lose. If you don't learn how to play town properly, and you get lynched a lot as town because you look scummy, then you are hurting your win condition and the other players every game you play. It's important to avoid looking scummy. In fact, it's a really good skill to develop, both for town and scum play. Ideally, every time you land Vanilla Townie, you want to become a trusted probtown/conftown to most of the game so the mafia have to seriously consider killing you. Any time you can eat a night kill as a VT, you are helping town big time.

Everyone should be careful of words and phrasing. Using phrases like "I'll be honest" and such are pretty classic scum tells, for example. Using them as town is just bad play; Bitmap's assertion that only scum need to put any care into word choice is atrociously bad.

And finally ... Alignment has no causal relationship with activity. Period. -- Hyper-active townies who are abrasive and profane and abusive to other players often get into town v. town fights and give scum an easy smokescreen to hide in, so you will frequently see games where active townies cause scum to simply go with the flow. In those cases, the scum aren't posting less or being less active because they're scum ... they're doing so because the townies in question are making things easy for them.

That whole post is tripe Bitmap.

[Drixx]

Bitmap is slinging the proverbial pasta all over the place and trying to see what will stick. Classic first day scum play.

@Trip Ds, as resident IC, what's your view on this?

I can definitely see that as a scum play, but also as a town play. Throw shit against the wall and see who squeals the most is scum.

It's nonsense. I mean really nonsensical; scum are the ones who toss things around and try to get them to stick on day one? Scum have some information, namely who scum are, so they can usually target better than average while town have no such information and thus would be more likely to cast a wide net. That being said nothing Bitmap has done has felt like "slinging proverbial pasta all over the place" to me anyways.

Alright, I'm going to teach you guys about mafia because I'm going through one of those hyper-activity aggressive phases.

First off, go look at your role PM. Mine says I'm some form of town. (DO NOT QUOTE YOUR ROLE PM THOUGH)

Why the fuck do I need confirmation from other players if I'm town or not? I know I'm town. I don't have to appease anyone. I'm going to shit on people if they need to know if they're town because they're trying to suck up to the town in order to not get lynched. I'm going to post reads on what I think of people because why would I hide what I think about people? I'm town. I don't need to cherry pick my words. Scum has to cherry pick their words. This is why hyper-active people are usually town.

LAMIST much? The last line is an outright lie. Activity has no correlation with alignment.

Activity has a relatively high correlation with alignment; there are of course exceptions and outliers but it's not something to be ignored.

Bad IC is Bad. Scum are looking for PRs on day one (motive to get responses), and if scum always did the same thing then town would win every game. You can't rule anything out as scum behavior.

I updated from correlation to causation. Alignment doesn't have a causal relationship to activity.

It's amusing to see you basically saying that active players should be considered town when I just got done a game where I replaced into a scum slot that had been scum read by the most experienced players and used activity to get a flawless scum win. Like I said ... you can't make any statements about what scum will or won't do. The more you teach new players to expect some certain thing, the more they're gonna get suckered by good scum players.

[Drixx]

He's been playing forum mafia for longer than me. I'm sure he'll have a response. Hopefully it will be useful and include sound theory. Also it will hopefully be civil. I have faith in him. I've heard he has a hugely good reputation around these parts.

[Drixx]

I just want to see DDD's response because I know he'll tear you a new asshole and it's fun when he does that.

So you think the job of the IC is to "tear (people) a new asshole" who are new to the site? Interesting perspective. I thought the job of the IC was to give their best opinion on theory and try to help players new (both to the game and the site). My experience comes from elsewhere, so I freely admit I've got plenty to learn here. I came here for a reason. I learned the meta and the players that I played with elsewhere pretty well, and this place as a top notch rep for very in depth theory and high level play.

[Drixx]

@Zombiekitty - You'll have to forgive me on the "declaration of honesty" statements. I have played forum mafia with a much smaller playgroup the last few years, and in our meta that was almost always a scum tell. The idea behind that is that if someone feels the subconscious need to reinforce that what they are about to say is true, then the implication is that other things they are saying or have said are not true. Do with that what you will.

As far as activity and alignment, please note I updated that to what I intended to say. Correlation is a very loose thing. Causation is what I was trying to say. Alignment does not have a causal relationship with activity. Many factors in the game dictate how scum need to play to achieve their win condition. If the town is super active, the scum obviously can't hardcore lurk through the game. Similarly, if town has a lot of low activity, scum can ease through without saying a whole lot. Would you agree that the way the game unfolds has more to do with activity (especially for scum) than simple alignment assignment? If you disagree, why?

[Drixx]

When I am scum hunting, I rate people on activity on a scale with 5 positions. Scum are almost never on the bottom two when the game is over. (The bottom two levels are "just barely active enough to avoid replacement/modkill" and "so inactive they need replacement/modkill"). I'm currently in my 2nd and 3rd games here on this site, though, so that will adjust as I accrue experience here. Personally I have a pretty low tolerance for lurkers.

[Drixx]

I do a meta read on Drixx later.

That will be a bit of a waste of your time. I'm in my 2nd and 3rd games on site, and I was posting huge walls of text and using hyperactivity in my first game when I replaced into a scum slot. I'm intentionally avoiding doing that as a general rule, and my posts are therefore more succinct, and sometimes truncated for that reason.

It seems interesting how much you seem to be attempting to run/guide the game.

[Drixx]

After closer inspection, Bitmap is probably town. Diego is scum.

Any reasons for these revelations? If you are sure Diego is scum, why didn't you vote for him along with this declaration. You used the modifier "probably" for bitmap, but you didn't qualify with Diego.

[Drixx]

I am odd. I spend my days teaching and studying a language that hasn't been spoken in nearly 2 millennia as a job, and I just recently started playing here after years playing elsewhere. Still adjusting to the different styles and rhythms here.

[Drixx]

Bad IC is Bad.

Scum are looking for PRs on day one

(motive to get responses), and if scum always did the same thing then town would win every game. You can't rule anything out as scum behavior.

I like the part in bold where you tell me what scum do and then tell me scum never always do the same thing. Contradiction thy name is Drixx. But more importantly, how about we just make the correction assumption that not everything should be taken literally; when I call someone town or scum it's not because I know they are it's because I think they are and when I say something scummy it's not that I think scum always do it but that I think scum are more likely to do it or I think it's not scummy because I think scum are less likely to do it.

I updated from correlation to causation. Alignment doesn't have a causal relationship to activity.

Well obviously, the literal only thing that has a causal relationship with being scum is receiving a scum PM. That being said there is a correlation between activity and alignment.

It's amusing to see you basically saying that active players should be considered town when I just got done a game where I replaced into a scum slot that had been scum read by the most experienced players and used activity to get a flawless scum win. Like I said ... you can't make any statements about what scum will or won't do. The more you teach new players to expect some certain thing, the more they're gonna get suckered by good scum players.

The plural of anecdote is not data. Furthermore, you're acting like I've said we should lynch people in exact order from least posts to most posts. I haven't. But when in doubt between two players or stuck for a direction, I find lynching those who are posting less than they should or posting without actually saying anything is a good fallback.

Good response. Thank you. There's not really a contradiction though. What scum do as far as posts in the game and what they are doing in their minds are two different things. I would say what goes in the thread should be considered what the scum do (action) while things they are thinking about or looking for (like PRs) should be considered what scum generally think (not action). I think you can make a number of pretty sound assumptions about what a good scum team will be "doing" as far as their thinking goes. Looking for PRs is obvious. Identifying who will be most dangerous to them. Identifying players they think they might be able to get mislynched without getting themselves caught for it.

What scum will actually do as far as the plays they make and what they will say or how active they will be? I don't think that's really something you can safely assume in any single game. It may be true that in the big picture game of all the thousands of games that have been played on this site, there is a correlation between alignment and activity. I haven't done that sort of analysis so I couldn't say for sure. But even if there is, applying large scale probabilities and correlations to a game as if they are universally true is a dangerous path to tread. I believe this is essentially what you were saying about my anecdote, but in reverse. One case doesn't invalidate a correlation or a probability, but it does illustrate why counting on those things might not be super wise.

A similar point could be made about VCA, but VCA is a bit of theory for after the first lynch, yes?

[Drixx]

What scum will actually do as far as the plays they make and what they will say or how active they will be? I don't think that's really something you can safely assume in any single game. It may be true that in the big picture game of all the thousands of games that have been played on this site, there is a correlation between alignment and activity. I haven't done that sort of analysis so I couldn't say for sure. But even if there is, applying large scale probabilities and correlations to a game as if they are universally true is a dangerous path to tread. I believe this is essentially what you were saying about my anecdote, but in reverse. One case doesn't invalidate a correlation or a probability, but it does illustrate why counting on those things might not be super wise.

A similar point could be made about VCA, but VCA is a bit of theory for after the first lynch, yes?

Aren't you just arguing against the existence of scumtells here? In a single game, sure, activity might not be a reliable indicator, maybe somebody saying "to be honest" is town (if we believe that to be reliable on a larger scale), maybe the Amished tell isn't reliable (and no I'm not telling you what that one is) but that doesn't mean you don't apply them, it means you don't blindly apply them without thought.

And I think VCA is rubbish.

~~

Reading Diego.

That's exactly the point I was getting at. Nothing exists in a vacuum. It's really easy when you are in the dark (as you are very likely to be the majority of the time in mafia) to tunnel vision in on tells you've learned or things you read from sound theorycrafting or learned from other players. I'm a big fan of trying to view things from various PoVs and continuously question what I think I know. I appreciate the responses, and the viewpoint.

I would be interested to know why you think VCA is rubbish, but that can be after the game if you don't feel it's useful to the game at hand to discuss it.

[Drixx]

I do a meta read on Drixx later.

That will be a bit of a waste of your time. I'm in my 2nd and 3rd games on site, and I was posting huge walls of text and using hyperactivity in my first game when I replaced into a scum slot. I'm intentionally avoiding doing that as a general rule, and my posts are therefore more succinct, and sometimes truncated for that reason.

It seems interesting how much you seem to be attempting to run/guide the game.

There is more to meta than finding post lengths and activity level. What I find interesting is your annoyance of Bitmap's playstlyle when you also try to run/guide the game.

I don't feel like I'm overly dominating the game or trying to push it in any particular direction. I do have a severe dislike for lurking. I suppose I probably get pretty pushy when it comes to that. If you elaborate, it would be helpful to me to be more aware of what I'm doing. It's fairly easy to do things without intending to.

[Drixx]

Any tricks in that bag of yours besides throwing out random "pasta" and seeing where it sticks, Diego?

[Drixx]

What constitutes a "wall" post? I don't believe I even have the longest post in the game, nor are my posts consistently long. From the newbie games so far (of which I've completed one and am playing in two others), this site doesn't appear to actually have 'generally accepted theory'. If you think I can't talk theory a bit and scumhunt at the same time, you're sadly mistaken.

I'm sorry you didn't like post #57.

I don't particularly believe that evaluating someone's play on a meta level is necessarily useful. You seem to think it is, and that I don't understand. I came to this site specifically to learn from folks here and to improve my own play. I'm interested in what you find useful about evaluating someone's meta-play, especially what I'm not accounting for. If it's game-sensitive, feel free to wait until after game.

[Drixx]

I'm still learning my way Pramitz. It probably doesn't help that I'm an academic in a field that most people find very boring. I'll check out your ISO and try to pick up some ways to make my posts less boring. The main points of this game are to have fun and to match wits with people. Neither are much fun for everyone else if I'm a bore.

[Drixx]

I'm a little confused by the atmosphere of this particular game. It's in the newbie queue, and I understood the point of this queue is to let folks come and learn. I've played essentially all of my forum mafia with a small playgroup on a website and forums meant for something else, where mafia was just a side thing. If I don't clear out the stuff that only applies to that playgroup or that became "accepted theory" in that much smaller group of players and set of games, and if I don't ask questions, how am I meant to learn and adapt to the theory and players here?

I do know that the SE/IC slots are supposed to be in the game to help those of us newer to the game, and yet an SE came after me personally and flung a homophobic slur at me and another player in the process, then later said they were going to enjoy the IC "ripping me a new asshole", and now the IC is enjoying a "knockout punch".

Is the point of the games in this queue to beat up on new people and mock them and attack them if they don't automatically understand everything the way it has been established here over what looks to be the course of a decade+ and thousands of games? That seems sort of quite opposite the point of the newbie games, at the very least.

And before someone makes some claim about "constructive criticism" or some such, it's only constructive when you criticize someone's play (and not when you attack them personally or publicly relish in "knockout punches" and "ripping of new assholes"),

and also

give them feedback to correct and improve said play. For people who are supposedly volunteering their experience and time to "help" me and other new people learn and get better, I see an awful lot of "it's really fun to abuse and knock around the n00bs" attitude here. What's up with that?

[Drixx]

I choose A. I appreciate the responses. I threw that post up during my lunch break mostly out of frustration (obviously). It would be nice to see the game actually motor back to life a bit more and continue on.

By the way, I did some looking for "Amished Tell" and that was thwarted by the existence of a television show about the Amish mafia, although there is a wiki page on this site about/by a player from some years ago named "Amished" who seemed to have a bit of a tough start. I know you said you wouldn't tell me what that is, and perhaps that's an inside joke or something of the sort, or perhaps it's simply pragmatic. Maybe after the game? I'm curious and looking for answers hasn't yielded much that leads to a conclusion.

As far as the game goes in general, I don't want to leave the wrong impression, especially since I don't plan to stop playing and so I'll likely see you folks again in other games. I've been around the internet since before Mosaic and I've seen a great deal more nastiness and ugly crap elsewhere. Mafia is a game that revolves around conflicts, and conflict produces emotion and sometimes things get heated. I get that. I will continue to try and conduct myself with composure and hope my post from frustration isn't a huge problem.

[Drixx]

fjkldsjh, any reason for ignoring all of the questions directed at you?

I am ready for a lynch

not really, i want subs to talk

but can we kill this guy today?

What Bitmap said earlier interested me. I don't, at the moment, understand the case against "letters". I'm going to do a re-read in the morning when I'm not tired and try and do a proper full read. I'm rubbish at being sure people are town (apart from when I'm scum, obviously), and what I find hardest about being town is being sure who the other town are so I can apply PoE. Furthermore, it makes it hard for me to realize when scum are manipulating a wagon.

As a result of that weakness, I'm super frustrated by this wagon on "letters". I just don't get it. Hopefully a re-read will help.

[Drixx]

Unvote

VOTE: DDD

Voted "letters" for asking for reads. Seems to me that the IC is an obvious choice to ask for reads. That, I think, is what was making me uncomfortable about the numbers wagon; that is, the first one on, and the how. DDD later responded to "letters" request for a couple specific reads, but did a sort of rough overview, said he didn't see why he needed to read someone (a very odd statement since identifying probable town is just as necessary as identifying scum) and then asked a very odd question at the end.

The other thing that bothers me about DDD on the re-read is that he stated, unequivocally, that Bitmap

is

town, based upon a small sample size of posts and some prior gameplay together. Since both are experienced, this bothers me on several levels:

1.) It's a scum tell to declare that someone

is

town, without any qualifier. Scum are the informed minority and the only ones who know for sure.
2.) This declaration, if it were accurate, would mean that Bitmap, despite being a very experienced player, would be so easy to meta read that one can know within a few posts whether he's town or not. That's pretty hard to swallow.

DDD seems pretty smart. He hasn't put a lot on the record, and what is there is problematic. Vouching for another player without any qualification. Starting a wagon without any explanation. It doesn't really make much sense on re-read, not even in what little flow we've had in so few posts for the time.

[Drixx]

Gee, I'm flattered. I'm so bad I have my own level of badness. As you say though, DDD, playing is the way to get better.

Even if you take the qualifier bit out (and it

is

potentially a scum slip. Whether someone with 5k+ posts and your experience level would make it is an open question), you still threw out a town read on bitmap, at a time when you yourself say nobody was pressuring Bitmap. So we're still sitting at the question of whether Bitmap has such an identifiable meta that he can be identified as town within a few posts of the start of a game, and the question of why you felt the need to preemptively say he's town.

One interesting thing I noticed in my re-read is that you only respond to parts of posts. Anything you can answer in a dismissive way, you will. If there's something you can't answer ... you just ignore it.

[Drixx]

my normal play is really abrasive and no reasons but when im here in these games i play diffrent to accomade newbies

Abraisive play is a good way to take advantage of folks who will respond out of emotion. From emotion comes slips and tells. I'm not sure you're doing new players any favors by putting off that lesson.

[Drixx]

I'm not sure I follow that logic. Jumping off a wagon that seems nearly certain to be the lynch of the day will call a ridiculous amount of attention to anyone who does so.

Let me ask you a question Diego, presuming we lynch letters: What would you think about your reads (especially bitmap) whichever way letters flips? (I'm asking for both ways).

[Drixx]

This game seriously needs some more activity.

[Drixx]

I'm not sure my reasons for voting DDD are flimsy. He ignored some of them when responding to me, which is a bit of a red flag. Read his ISO. How is he actually pushing the game in a town way? He engaged with me on theory posts, which is part of being an IC as I understand it, but beyond that, what's he actually done, apart from what I pointed out?

Despite re-reading the thread twice now, not exactly a chore given how short it is, I still don't see why the lynch on letters got started or what the reason for it is. I view others (including DDD) as more likely to be scum than letters.

So, given that you are voting for Letters, it would be helpful to me if you explained why he's scummy. Maybe some thoughts on the rest of the field, if you have the time?

[Drixx]

Is there anyone on the "letters" wagon who can sum up the case for me? I seriously don't see it and I'm pretty sure you are all driving a townie lynch wagon, and it's frustrating as hell to repeat myself over again that I've re-read the thread more than once trying to see why people think he's scum and I don't see it. If you're so sure, it shouldn't be hard to do a summation. Convince me he's scum, by explaining the case against him, and I'll do the hammer vote.

Perhaps everyone could do with a re-read. We're like 11 days into this and there's only 252 posts, including the opening mod posts. It's not exactly like it will be all that time consuming.

[Drixx]

@Bitmap - What does "townbled" mean? I think I get it but the next sentence confused me a bit. Do you mean that he mentioned who he thought was town and who to go to, but

without

reasons? If so, I agree. What someone says after they are locked is wine (if scum) or insight from a confirmed townie, and it's really good to know the thinking behind those "I'm gonna be mislynched, here's my last chance to directly help my wincon" posts.

[Drixx]

I'll hold off on defending DDD, because I don't like doing that for other players. I will say that I disagree on his lack of game content, though. It may be sparse compared to his IC content, but it's not completely missing like you're saying.

As for Letters, I don't like how obsessed he is with everyone outting their reads all the time. It's like he so desperately wants to be town, and he knows that town is supposed to have reads. His own reads are shaky at best. Also because my gut didn't like how he reacted when reaching L-1.

I've already given my thoughts on the rest of the field, at least the part of the field I'm currently thinking about.

I'm not necessarily sure that "letters" asking for reads is a scum tell, in this particular game. You provide a possible scum motive for him doing so, but it seems just as likely (if not more so) that he's coming back to the thread, seeing that nothing has been said, and is asking people for reads because reads can spark discussion. I generally read posts and try to assume that the person is confscum and see if it makes sense, and then again assuming conftown and see if it makes sense. For me, given the way this game has kind of sputtered along, the request for reads actually reads more town than scum, to me.

You don't provide any reasons why his reads are shaky, so there's nothing really to say there. You've expressed an opinion without any reason to back it up.

Your final reason is a "gut" thing, which there's also nothing for me to respond to. I can't tell you how your gut feels.

[Drixx]

Also, letters townbled a bit by the way he reacted on his L-1 vote. He mentioned who to go after after getting lynched with reasons which irks me as town.

Also, Diego has an OMGUS reason on me.

No, my suspicion of you is two-fold: your interaction with letters early on in the game, and how you've ignored, and now try to make a town read, his reaction to reaching L-1.

It feels like you were "coaching" letters early on, telling him to "wrong move, try harder." 154

A player crying out for a lynch of another player who just put him at L-1 is in no way a town move. He hasn't been lynched yet. He's still playing the game. Once a lynch has occurred, twilight cries for a lynch is town. During the game, its just OMGUS. The fact that you're trying to cover this up, and make it look like town, further strengthens my belief that you're his teammate.

That is a really badly reasoned post. You can't make a case against someone based entirely upon the assumption that someone else is also scum. What you're doing is a great way to run headlong into a wall and lose. I'm not saying you shouldn't consider pairings; you should. You should scumhunt people individually, and then consider all possible pairings and whether there are any that make sense. This is a small part of PoE.

Now ... after we string up the first scum, you're obviously at that point always positing a pairing when you are scumhunting. So you are looking for someone who looks independently scummy and also makes sense as a partner for the dead scum, in hindsight.

Judging people based upon a posited pairing is always kind of shaky though, because you really can't know how the scum decide to play and what strategies they used to try and confuse and elude the notice of the town. You can't know until after its all over what motivated the scum or what they did. Some scum pairings just never make sense during the game and are a complete surprise when you get to the end.

All of that said ... if you can make a case against Bitmap without relying upon the assumption that someone else is scum, let's see it. Personally I'm leaning town on Bitmap atm, although the answer to my earlier question may impact that.

[Drixx]

I guess I need to be convinced because I have done re-reads and what I've seen isn't something like "letters is scummy because of this post" for reasons more substantial than "gut". His L-1 post reads like townie anger/hurt at being about to be lynched and unable to sway anyone. His flailing looks very townie to me. I dislike that he threw out reads and didn't give any reasons. I haven't pressed him about that because I wanted Bitmap to answer my question(s) first. I don't want me pressing 'letters' to give a "because; reasons" post before I see what Bitmap has to say.

As for being super literal and pressing people ... I've gotten a lot of reactions and responses for pressing people on those things, which is more than I would have to do reads with otherwise given the pacing of this game.

Glad to see you back DDD. You've absolved my main complaint about you, so:

Unvote

I think I will review Ika and Pramitz in ISO.

[Drixx]

@DDD - I think that there's such a thing as "town flailing", especially from newer players who don't know what they should do when being mislynched as town. I've seen at least 3 or 4 mislynches already since I came on site that feature a newer player who is a townie being mislynched and the reaction is a whole lot of flailing as it's happening. They haven't yet learned how to get people to re-evaluate them and they don't know how to help their wincon while they're going down and they panic and you get a bunch of scummy looking posts, and then they flip town.

That post by letters at L-1 screams town at me. It is town enough that I want to re-read the thread (again) and evaluate the people who started and are pushing his lynch even, to see if I can find false notes there.

[Drixx]

LOL. The only reason I put a vote on DDD was because he hadn't posted anything substantive of his own. He had only responded prior to that with acerbic remarks picking apart the thoughts of others. He has since given some substantial thoughts of his own.

I would say that we learn the most from lynching you or "letters". I am almost certain from my re-reading and his L-1 post that he's town, but knowing for certain will allow for us to evaluate the people who pushed the wagon so hard, including

you

.

Of course, your L-1 vote post was pretty darned scummy reading, and you're trying awfully hard to buy town cred at the moment.

I don't think we'll get an Ika or Pram lynch today. I'm not willing to vote for someone I'm nearly convinced is town, so I won't be voting for "letters" outside of some kind of extraordinary circumstance. I do think that after re-reading, of the folks who I think look scummy, this is the most likely one that can gain consensus:

VOTE: Diego

[Drixx]

@Diego - I'm about as committed to the game as is possible. The L-1 vote on "letters" didn't show up until 5:50 am my time. By that time I had given up on anyone showing up and voting and gone to sleep (I actually went to sleep around 4am after grading some translation homework from my Greek students). I would say doing work that I usually do from the home office or during office hours just to keep myself awake until 4am is dedicated enough, thanks.

[Drixx]

Brantz needs to post before anything can really be said about him ... but if "letters' convinced you all the slot was scum, how would a replacement be able to convince otherwise?

[Drixx]

cool story bro nice OGMUS

now how about you tell me something better, like if im scum whos my scum buddy?
like who would you kill n1?
like about some actual reads instead of silly acusation?

Yes, you get three for that post.

VOTE: Ika

[Drixx]

It's a terrible question and you admitted that the most townie motives anyone can think of for the question aren't your reasons. You claim to have some other reason/purpose/motive for asking the question, but at L-1 you are defiantly daring someone to lock you instead of sharing that piece of information. If it's a reasonable and town oriented reason/purpose/motive, then you need to share it and knock the wheels off this wagon.

Since you seem incapable of expressing an actual good reason why you asked the question, my vote stays. If you can pull an actual townie reason out of your backside, I'll gladly re-consider. For now, you look like scum who got too clever and is trying to use aggression to get out of a jam. I think the younger folks would say something like "U mad bro?" at this juncture.

[Drixx]

if i give you the damn reason it defest the entire purpous of the question to begin with. if i say my reasons scums can tailor their answer to what i want to hear.

so no i will continue to refuse to give my damn reason and will continue to condone my own lynch. i have a perfectly good reason however i bet when i state my said reason im just going to be riddculed on it and have people call it a shit reason and just wagone me all over again. so no, i will continue to agrro my own lynch and that if i need to selfvote at deadline i fucking will.

tbh at this poitn if it wasnt so anti-town/against wincon i would just sefl hammer out of spite right now just to shove it to all fo you

This is the most terrible post I've ever seen. If you actually flip town, I'll be reporting this post to the mods. One of the rules around here is that you play to your win condition. Right now you are flaunting the fact that you supposedly aren't. You admit that the BS you're spinning right now goes against a town win condition, and then act mad and hurt that we're reading you as scum?

Whatever reason you may have had for asking that question, it isn't going to have its intended purpose now. You might as well just spit it out.

[Drixx]

I left out a somewhat amusing anecdote in that last post.

In my first ever forum mafia game, I suicided myself intentionally via post edit. That wasn't even as bad as what ika is claiming he's doing though, because he's trying to antagonize someone else into a suicide-by-proxy situation, in a game where his claimed win condition gets only 2 mislynches. The fact that we went our first day and night without a kill doesn't make it okay for someone on the town win condition to waste 50% of the town's MOE in this way.

At least in my case, it was a game with nearly 30 people and a bunch of mechanics that gave the town a super amount of advantage, and so my n00bshow didn't end up hurting my team.

ika has been around for like 14 months though, so I don't think this is a newbie thing. I'm reading this whole "I'm tempted to just suicide by self vote" BS as a desperate scum post. Flailing at its finest.

[Drixx]

And still he refuses to tell us what his magical purpose was for the question that would have helped him supposedly divine the scum from the town, whilest also refusing to respond to the (now twice explained) point that the only thing that question does is throw a bunch of WINE all over the place and kick up a smokescreen for team scum. There's literally no town motive I can think of for throwing that question into the game and then going after people for not answering it. If the question itself was bait, that would be one thing ... but ika claims that the answers would supposedly be helpful to his wincon, and he's claimed town wincon. So far all of the experienced players in the game who have commented agree that there's not any conceivable town upside to that play that we can think of.

And that doesn't even speak to the awfulness of the rest of the post which contained that question. I did put up three facepalms for a reason.

At this point ika, you are a necessary kill for the town. You otherwise become an easy smokescreen for the scum. If by some miracle you actually had some town motive for that question that none of us can think of, and you share it, I suppose it's possible you drop from "must lynch first priority" to some lower place on the list, but that would have to be one heck of an explanation and someone else would have to look really scummy to supplant you at this point. You lose nothing by giving the explanation. Continued refusal to do so seems very anti-town and just reinforces the scum read.


RE - #339 - ROFL. Another for you. If you actually are town aligned you brought this on yourself, and your continued hostility and refusal to even try and dig yourself out of it means this is

all your fault

. You don't get to gloat or say anything to anyone. You dug your own grave, and seeing as you haven't explained yourself, not even a little bit, don't be talking about "told you so" or any other BS. You haven't even claimed yet, strictly speaking. What exactly did you tell us? Oh ... that's right. Nothing.

Here's another, because right now you have earned so many I can't possibly post enough of them:

[Drixx]

There's no town value to me answering that question. You claim there is some town value, but apparently the only value it has is you can harangue people who don't want to kick up a smokescreen and spill wine all over the place and OMGUS us for being intelligent enough to call you on your bullshit.

But I'll make you a deal, since I'm reasonable: You tell us what you had in mind that has town value behind asking that question, and I'll answer it. I've been playing forum mafia for something ~5 years, and live mafia going back to when I was 13 or so, and I've been scum plenty of times. I'll even give you the first part of the answer you'll get when you stop throwing shit all over the wall like a rabid monkey and actually post something useful: Scum had two general paths available to them last night in terms of narrowing down their kill choice. Tell me how it helps the town, and I'll tell you what I would have done if I had been assigned to team scum this game. Doesn't get much more reasonable than that.

[Drixx]

RE = #342 - That might be your most anti-town statement yet. No town player wants to see a hammer before everyone in the game has even posted, let alone before any significant posts have come from everyone, especially in a game with some pretty heavily inactive players. That last line is perhaps the scummiest post I've ever seen. Are you like trying to see how scummy looking you can be or something? Are we on candid camera or something?

[Drixx]

I promised I'd answer, no matter how strange your reason was. Last night the scum team would have had two main pools to choose from: active players and inactive players. The safest scum play last night would probably have been to kill an inactive with no real content in the thread so that the kill wouldn't leave any clues behind. Given the lack of a death, there are a few possibilities in play:

1.) Team Scum submitted no night kill. If they have a roleblocker and know that they are either dealing with a doctor+cop

or

a jailkeeper and 1-shot Bulletproof, this might be a decent play, although I wouldn't consider it optimal. It could greatly benefit them if there's a jailer who blocked a townie and assumes he stopped the kill or if a doctor saved a scum and assumes he saved the target. Basically this move would be a long con of sorts, and gets the added slight bonus of avoiding a MYLO situation after 2 mislynches vs. the more desirable (for scum) LYLO situation(s) at 2v3 and if it extends another day at 1v2. I'm fairly certain the downside (which I address at end of post) outweighs any benefit I can think of.

2.) They hit a 1-shot bulletproof.

3.) A jailer blocked the kill submitter.

4.) A doctor made a save.


Presuming that scum team has a roleblocker and knows it's 50/50 on having a doc, then if I were in their shoes I'd have gone after someone inactive and low profile. I don't think there was enough in the thread from day 1 to pull a frame job with the kill last night. I also didn't see anyone who posted things that screamed PR either, and usually I'm pretty good at spotting them since it is a considerable help to all win conditions to identify PRs. Scum wants to kill them and town wants to realize who they are for PoE and possibly to set up a self sacrifice situation (tossing out false breadcrumbs for the scum to find and assume you are a PR when you're not).

If the scum team doesn't have a roleblocker, then I would have likely combed the thread again looking for PRs first and if I didn't have reasonable certainty that I had found one, I'd have looked to make a kill that would provide confusion and cover. I don't agree with the IC being the most optimal first kill choice. If the IC is driving the game and looking super townie, then maybe I would consider it, but even then, I would have to assume a possible doc save is gonna be aimed at the IC more times than not, which would likely shift my thinking to other people.

So there you go ika: a very thorough explanation, complete with the basic thought process I use as scum. Feel free to check out my first game on site in which I replaced into a scum slot and those factors are precisely what I was talking with my partner about on night one. I tried to logic out who a doctor would save and narrow the lynch targets down to players who had given off possible PR tells. As it happens, we got the cop with that night 1 kill, and he had investigated someone who we took advantage of for a mislynch. If he had lived, that person may have been spared and we may have lost.

And that's the downside to a scum team going with a deliberate no kill night, which is why it seems the unlikeliest explanation for what happened last night. PRs win the game for town frequently, especially cops. It would take exceptionally odd circumstances I think for a scum team to withhold a kill in newbie matrix game and give up a night trying to eliminate the biggest threat(s).

[Drixx]

Well ika, if I were scum and my partner and I agreed we should kill a lurker, I would have re-read the thread and figured out which one would give the absolute least possible information to the town. This is the problem with your question. You're asking all of us to say who we would have put a kill out on, but there's no useful information to be gleaned from it. If all of us (including you) gave a name and reasons, then that's 9 smokescreens for the scum to use. The kill this coming night phase will be worthless on the information front if everyone answers your question with the specificity you are demanding.

I answered the underlying question behind the question you actually asked. I gave you my scum thought process and took the time to think like scum. Unfortunately that's wasted effort at this point. Trying to figure out what scum are thinking is a pointless exercise without a kill to give any bounds to possible motive. At this point, one could posit any conceivable possibility and there's nothing to support or reject such suppositions. After there's a kill is the proper time to try and get townies to think like scum and try and figure out the likely motives for the kill and then from there postulate the most likely killer(s) to fit the victim and likely motives.

And even then, it's only a somewhat useful because it assumes the scum are acting rationally and didn't just randomize their kill. Any unorthodox scum motivation defeats it and any frame job defeats it, because a frame job is by definition completely WiFoM. There's no way to know, without a genuine cop claim, whether the person is being framed or whether they are scum and did the kill to make it look like they're being framed.

So ... in the end ... your question simply helps scum and has no utility to the town. I ask you again to explain the utility value to the town.

[Drixx]

No town player should give a specific answer to that question. The only utility value derived from answers to that question belongs firmly to scum. Your thinking is so brutally awful right now it's unbelievable. Scum are the most likely people to just answer your question because they know it's not helpful to town. You are pushing people to help the scum wincon, and then

calling them scum

when they are smart enough to realize that doing as you ask has zero benefit for town. I've seen some awful mafia play, but what you're doing right now takes the cake for worst play ever. I can't decide if the play would be worse if you are scum or worse if you are town. It's really super bad either way though.

As far as I'm concerned, you're the lynch today, but not until some of these inactive people get off their backsides and contribute to the game.

[Drixx]

You are playing literally the worst mafia game I've ever seen anyone play, no matter what your actual alignment is. Yes, you're a policy lynch now.

If I had answered your question, it would have had zero utility for the town and at least some utility for the scum team. If more than one of us had been dumb enough to answer your question, it would have had a distinct negative utility for the town and a probable game winning utility for the scum. Scum teams dream of someone doing something so stupid as you did (and continue to do) with that question.

[Drixx]

Requesting Prod for: Zombiekittie, Bitmap, Pramitz

[Drixx]

@ika - By the way, you had a really simple defense open to you, which was only prevented by your pride. You could simply have admitted that you didn't have some clever reason or plan behind the question and that you threw it up on a whim with some nebulous idea that maybe scum might trip on it. Town is much more likely to post on impulse without thinking everything through and making sure everything adds up. Scum are generally more cautious and don't post on a whim. They re-read things and make sure that what they're posting fits and is consistent with the idea of a town player they are attempting to project into the game.

Had you simply said something like "You know what, I didn't really think that question through. The only real thought I had was maybe scum might trip on it." or something like that, swallowed your pride and admitted it was a bad question with no town value ... the pressure probably drops (at least from me, and I suspect from others). Instead, you doubled down with this insistence that you had some clearly reasoned purpose to the question which would be ruined if you shared it. Since your "reason" was an incomprehensible mess of a post, I think we all know that wasn't true. So you doubled down on a bad play and got snotty about it to boot.

The ball is in your court. You've soft claimed town win condition. You haven't made an outright claim of anything. If you actually are town, please consider that three of the four people who could hammer you are significantly inactive this day phase. It would be of fairly high value to the town for you to swallow your pride and for us to avoid mislynch (presuming you are what you claim to be). Obviously it's too late for you to use the out that you had open to you before you dug in and made the situation worse, but I have faith that an experienced player who is legitimately town can figure out a way off the ledge.

I'll be around whilest I work in the office today, refreshing occasionally.


@Bitmap, @Pramitz, @Zombiekitty - We've had a no kill night already. It would be super nice if we didn't squander that opportunity. It would be really nice if you guys made some significant contribution sooner than later. Thanks in advance.

[Drixx]

Wow Drixx, you're really laying into him. While I mostly agree with a lot of what you say, it's just a game man. You've made your point.

That last post was meant to inspire him to re-evaluate what he's doing. If he really is town and he continues to respond the way he is, do you think he makes it out of today alive? If; however, he's town and changes his approach from "I dare you!" to something convincingly townie, then he can help his win condition and avoid using up a mislynch.

[Drixx]

@Drixx what really is your read on ika right now? Because on your post 360, I'm getting this sense that you really do believe he's town and just wants him to admit to his mistake(?). It's not actually you reading him as scum.

Im kind of reading the posts backwards, so will be back later until I finish reading up the rest of the posts and find out why people are suddenly voting for ika.

Im also kind of turned off about the fact it's like day 1 all over again and no flips or kills for information.

Nothing has changed my read on ika. 360 is directed at ika completely on what seems like a very remote off chance that he's actually town. Every response he's given has been scummy. If he actually is town (he soft claimed town win condition), then he needs to take a different approach than the one he's currently taking, which seems like an awful lot of nonsense and third grade spiteful tantrum. Only scum or someone being spiteful would take the stance ika has. No matter what ika's alignment is, his response doesn't help him. If he's scum then he should have done something similar to what I pointed out in 360. If he's town, he should also have done something similar to that. His play makes no sense for any alignment in a newbie game setup. The only role I can think of which would make his posts/actions this day phase make any sense would be Village Idiot, and that's not on the table.

He has basically said, and I'm paraphrasing here, "I'm town and you are all stupid for not understanding my play and I am not going to explain or defend myself in any rational way. Instead, I'm going to instigate my own lynch so I can harm you for daring to vote for me when I look totally scummy because that hurts my feelings and I want to say 'I told you so' after the game." So long as he continues to behave the way he has, he's a policy lynch.

[Drixx]

If he actually is town (he soft claimed town win condition)

Why is this a thing that needs to be mentioned? Do you think there's anyone who wouldn't do that under pressure?

For clarity in terms of what I'm saying. I'm not trying to defend ika in any way. I do want to see him play to his win condition, whatever that is. Right now his play is terribad no matter which alignment he actually is.

also if drixx was paying attento to me he would already know my role

This is your play? You're going to imply that you bread-crumbed your role in the thread and all of us missed it?

[Drixx]

He says he hard claimed. His read lists suggest he hard claimed Vanilla Townie, but if he did it was in that mess of an incomprehensible post explaining his master plan for that awful question.

[Drixx]

wow this game s fuckign slow now.....

i also now have xombie as solid town and know his role

Invoking Lynch All Liars on top of the case against ika. There's no breadcrumbs pointing to a role in #397, and this constant BS about knowing roles is exactly that: BS.

[Drixx]

397?

i claimed bro, keep trying. if you still don't find it i can show you post-game

In 398 you responded to zombie's post by saying it caused you to both read him as town and

know

his role. There's nothing in his post (#397) that even hints at a role. You've now posited PRs for more people than there can possibly be PRs for, and claimed to know the "role" of what ... 4 people?

[Drixx]

This is interesting.

Lets go here instead.

VOTE: Diego1487

Why? With ika at L-1 and sitting there until he stopped playing BS games (first with the threats, now with the pretending to know things that he will of course never elaborate upon), the longer he sat there, the more suspicious it became for him to remain alive. There's more than ample reason at this point to pull the trigger, so only an over the top cautious scum team would just leave him sitting there at L-1 for days if he were actually town. I've never seen more blatant flailing in my life than ika this day phase, and so I gotta ask: why the vote swap to diego without reasoning? Was there some reason you felt the need to take that obvious "why is he still alive if he's town?" pressure away?

It would be one thing if you had presented some thoughts on why you didn't think ika is scum or why you think diego is ... but you just made some comments that mean nothing and swapped your vote. So when you said "This is interesting.", I take it you meant the post you were making at the time?

[Drixx]

@ika - In #345 you very slightly breadcrumb jailer or doctor. In #390 you "read" yourself as town, and pointed out 4 people whose roles you claim to have divined, including someone you say is scum and has a role.

The only blatant claim you have made is regarding your alignment. In #345 you are saying that the IC is the default target on the first night unless some other person slips and obviously has a PR or in some other way causes the scum team to feel the need to kill them. You then imply the obvious thing to do, if you have a role that can do it, is to save the IC. That's not anything approaching obvious or blatant.

Oh, and I found it amusing whilest reading your ISO when I got to the part where you called me out for not naming who I would have killed if I were scum. I think I'm the only person who even entertained your question at all. By your logic, you're in a game with 8 scum and just you as town, since nobody else even bothered trying to talk to you and get responses from you in order to read you based upon more than just that one post. #SMH

[Drixx]

Why do people read tone into text? Text, by definition, has no tone. There's no caps or anything to indicate yelling in post #404. You read it as not calm and "freak out" because it was aimed at you and intended to put pressure on you. Even the abbreviation I used (BS) was about ika and not aimed at all at you BRantz.

In fact ... all I see in that post is a few pointed questions aimed at you. That's all it takes to make you think someone has lost their cool? They merely ask you some hard questions, and you resort to ad hominem? Your entire post is fallacious and just bad. You had to go out of your way to pretend my post was "just yelling" and "freak out" and such to give yourself an excuse not to share your reasoning for "deciding ika shouldn't be on the block anymore".

It looks like I hit a nerve big time with my questions, because you're the one who freaked out, lashed out at me for no apparent reason, and piled on with ad hominem attacks to avoid answering my questions.


@DDD - thanks for the post reference. So if he's a VT, how is it he can claim to know the "role" (which is different from just alignment, yes?) of 4 or 5 people? That seems like a last ditch desperation thing. Thoughts?

[Drixx]

Of course there's no role in a newbie game that would let him know roles, and of course I don't believe he actually has figured out whatever PR(s) are in the game and whomever has them. I'll buy the premise of essentially coded in the clear communication though, as I usually set up code phrases with scum partners myself, especially if I feel I might be a lynch wagon. Generally I set up a phrase or something that's slightly out of character for me and if I give it, then they should feel free to use my lynch to get as many town points as possible.

This just seems really blatantly out in the open on his part, and I was kind of thinking maybe I was missing something or coming to an obvious conclusion instead of a probable one.


What do you think of BRantz in #408? I wasn't in the least bit emotional or irritated or anything else when I made the post. I've re-read it a couple times to try and see how he arrived at "freaking out" and "yelling", and I don't see it. For the moment, I read it as either staged or an emotional response to pointed questions.

[Drixx]

Welcome FWtJR

[Drixx]

your fence sitting on me jelly is starting to irk me. if your going to fence sit about me at least dont point it out. it will quickly draw my ire

And the AoE Chainsawing makes a comeback!

[Drixx]

Why would outed scum voting me motivate me? As far as I'm concerned, we have a basically self verifying scum to lynch today. We can hunt down your partner after we're done ridding ourselves of you.

[Drixx]

I generally try not to get attached to the idea of specific pairings. ika has done absolutely nothing townie since the wagon on him hit L-1. Much of what he did was antithetical to any win condition at all. None of what he did could be viewed as townie. So there's only two possibilities:

1.) He's scum, and all of what he's done is one huge WIFOM fest in hopes of somehow saving himself for another day.
2.) He's just really bad and childish and spiteful and he threw a child's tantrum because we put him at L-1, and rather than play proper to his win condition, he intentionally made it impossible for us to leave him alive.


I cannot say for absolute certain which case is true, although I'm something like 90/10 certain that it's case #1. ika has been around too long and played in way too many games for him to actually have carried on all this time with what he's doing because of the initial emotional response. That means his play has some kind of logic (even if faulty) driving it. Since I cannot think of any town motive to play the way he has, and to keep it up considerably well after any sane townie would have stopped and started making townie posts, it seems a near certainty that he is scum.

There was a lot of apathy in the game yesterday and today isn't a whole lot better. BRantz looks very suspicious for stalling momentum and going on that bizarre attack when I questioned about it. It should also be noted that BRantz still hasn't actually made a case or any kind for why the vote came off from ika (no reasons or anything for thinking ika isn't scum), nor any case for where the vote is now. So if someone put a gun to my head and said "ika is scum ... who is his partner?", then BRantz is the only person who appears to be trying to help ika, and is doing so in a way that can be explained away with a little skill. The obvious choice isn't always correct though. After ika flips scum would be the appropriate time to re-read and look for a partner.

[Drixx]

That is an interesting story but I don't understand the cost/benefit of what you are suggesting. I can't see how it really helps them to communicate subtly on a target while risking looking like they are communicating. I don't really see it, but I will give it a look over again.

@ Drixx: Okay now where do you want to go?

Because I'm the only one who thought Ika was ridiculously over the top scummy yesterday? Did

anyone

seriously want to just leave him sitting there until endgame?

One place I'd like go go ... carefully ... is to the implications of nobody dying at night yet. Some of the potential reasons in the possibility space could, I think, be super helpful for finding scum. A discussion that isn't rolefishing oriented might help the PR(s) decide if they should speak up or not. I haven't really thought all the way through the implications enough to be certain; however, it seems like the scum certainly have to be ahead of the town in figuring out the setup, and what we can deduce from what the PR(s) know could range from useless to potentially game winning.


Also, I'm not sure I should dismiss Diego's case completely out of hand. It doesn't seem like the sort of contrived case scum would make. If I can say it this way: it almost seems too scummy to be a scum play. What he pointed out is certainly not out of the realm of simple coincidence, but I've also seen stranger things from scum teams. And I have to admit that it's fairly subtle and I wouldn't probably have even noticed it, if it turns out to actually be scum communicating in plain sight.

[Drixx]

Anyways, besides being hilarious, Diego's post was actually really useful. I mean Diego is way town for that nonsense. There is no way scum exhibit that sort of paranoia, why would scum think they're being suspected, they know they're not being targeted and scum would actually come up with a decent reason for suspecting someone instead of that. That is pure Grade A town crazy.

This. I mean, I tried to leave the door open a little bit to not calling someone "Grade A crazy", but that was so incredibly far from a scum post, I about sneezed out my tea last night when I saw people scum reading him for it. I have to inject more snark into my play.

[Drixx]

The problem I'm having reading people is trying to account for the lack of night kills. It's the huge elephant in the room, and I can't be the only one kicking it around upstairs and wondering how much it is impacting the conversation.

[Drixx]

I'm just trying to figure out how scum would play this situation. We have some folks being fairly active, and some posting the bare minimum, and I think even some who haven't posted yet this day phase?

[Drixx]

It is a mistake to completely discount the scum read on a slot just because a replacement comes in and appears different. Nothing a replacement says or does can in any way impact what the prior player(s) said and did, and just crossing out the earlier stuff seems like a really good way to go about losing newbie games.

[Drixx]

It is a mistake to completely discount the scum read on a slot just because a replacement comes in and appears different. Nothing a replacement says or does can in any way impact what the prior player(s) said and did, and just crossing out the earlier stuff seems like a really good way to go about losing newbie games.

Who is scum?

If I knew that for sure, I'd have said so already.

[Drixx]

My gut has been saying DDD for awhile, but I haven't really been able to find anything in his posts to point at and say "that's scummy", save perhaps that the totality of them seems sort of lackadaisical. If you poke him or say something he can respond to sarcastically, then he responds, but otherwise there doesn't seem to be anything "proactive" about his play.

For different reasons, my gut doesn't like BRantz this game. Again there's nothing concretely scummy that I can quote and go "this is super scummy".

[Drixx]

So I took at look at BRantz' ISO. I can't put my finger on what exactly it is (I'll do an in context read soon™), but it just pings the scumdar really hard.

VOTE: BRantz

[Drixx]

It's really amusing to see BRantz complain about votes on him without accompanying cases when that's an incredibly apt description of his own play thus far.

[Drixx]

BRantz ... you seem to think that I should have somehow divined that ika was town. Hindsight bias much? From the moment he decided to be spiteful and play against his wincon, there was absolutely zero upside to leaving him alive. Scum would have just let him live because he would be a useful source of WIFOM in any endgame situation. Having him in game as an unknown after the way he reacted to a wagon getting started on him would have been incredibly unhelpful to town, if not outright harmful.

You, on the other hand, haven't gone all frothy at the mouth because someone voted you. So why would you think I would come to the same conclusion about you as I did ika? I wasn't exactly secretive about my reasoning that he had to go no matter his alignment.

[Drixx]

I'll grant you that. This game has had a strange rhythm to it so far. It feels disjointed at the moment. I wasn't the only person who didn't meet your standard yesterday, and I should point out that my early poking of people for the usual sorts of early game, nothing serious has happened yet reasons was met with quite a lot of push back. I suppose I could go back to poking people to get responses but it doesn't seem to have really generated much in the way of conversation the first time around and I don't expect that doing the same thing and hoping for a different result will actually work ;p

[Drixx]

FWTJR - I got what you were trying to do yesterday, but I don't think we were going to get many people to engage in further discussion yesterday, based upon how the game has unfolded thus far. I suppose I take my own share of the blame for that, but it's not like I haven't tried to move the gamestate forward.

[Drixx]

Zombiekitty, why are you so interested in re-hashing yesterday when today is quickly running out?

[Drixx]

@ drixx, I know earlier you said something about reading DDD as scummy. Where are you at on him right now?

About where I expected they would be once a wagon got any momentum on him. He has played the game very reactive and basically been dismissive when he has decided to engage with the game. Now that he's being scum read for it, he can't really change his approach since doing so would look like flailing and just make the situation worse. That's why I didn't see any point in trying to pressure him earlier ... there's not sufficient content in the game from him to make a sound case against him, and now that there are 3 votes on him, he's reacted the only way he can. Unfortunately that reaction doesn't tell us anything about whether he's scum or not.

The only thing I can do is re-read and see if I missed something out of him, one way or the other. I went to the hospital on Thursday night with some pretty severe pain and tightness in my left shoulder, chest and neck area, and some bad heartburn that had no apparent cause from anything I ate. Everything checks out okay, but I got no sleep until late last night and I'm still feeling out of sorts from the original symptoms (diagnosed as skeletal/muscular in nature) plus the various tests weren't exactly pleasant. I know we're running out of time and I'll try and get a read done by mid-day tomorrow at the latest.

I'm not the only one who can re-read the thread though.

[Drixx]

I know you are only obligated to truthfully talk about theory,

as you understand it

, but do you REALLY buy VCA?

VCA might be supported by an analysis of all the games housed on this site, as a large scale probabilistic measure; however, I am unaware of any project to actually document it. It may be true on a large meta scale, whether or not anyone has proven it. The problem with statistics and probability on a large scale is that it doesn't (and cannot) be applied to individual instances.

I seriously shake my head every time someone tries to make VCA the primary method to find scum. It

might[/b] be a useful small tool to help sort thoughts or to spend time on evaluating things which are more probable, but any argument that rests solely on VCA theory is doomed to be manipulated by any scum who knows what it is and pays enough attention to know how to manipulate you via it.

Do you have some actual effort to show us, or should I just put you at L-1 now?

[Drixx]

Tag fail:

[Drixx]

That's a fairly cogent argument numberQ. I can think of at least one reason that frequently influences new players to behave the way Zombiekitty has that isn't at all scummy. So ... how do I tell whether the kitty is legit scummy or just a newer player falling into bad play for a reason that many newbies also do the same thing?

[Drixx]

Isn't it kind of obvious what reason a town player might choose to play the way zombiekitty has? I don't think I'm breaking any new ground with my thinking here.

And thanks ... I think. I have been intentionally working on varying my play and getting out of ruts I fell into while playing for years and years with the same smallish group of people.

[Drixx]

Consider what role a new town aligned player might have that would cause them to play timidly. It's basically the same reason a lot of newbie scum get caught, and it's not always a fully conscious action on their part.

[Drixx]

Well if nothing else, there shall be some interesting things to review whenever this resolves and the next day phase comes. I'm happy with where my vote is.

[Drixx]

Erm ... good luck? This has been a rather strange game. One particular flip would help a lot in firming up some reads... we'll see.

[Drixx]

I hate when it's down to the wire and I realize someone has gone eerily quiet in the face of a decent argument in place to kill him.

[Drixx]

Seraphim has made a pretty consistent and cogent push on Davesaz. When did Davesaz last post in this game? When did Davesaz last post?

I think you'll see what I mean quickly. I still read Brantz as all kinds of scummy in this game, but Seraphim has a point about Davesaz I think. It's getting WAY late in the day phase to be waffling, and it's irritating a bit. That's all.

[Drixx]

When did Davesaz last post in this game? When did Davesaz last post?

My strongest scum read is who I'm voting, haven't seen anything that would change that.

Any response to Seraphim's argument against you? We have intent to hammer on Brantz, and I will view you as HELLA scummy if you don't address his case before the day ends.

[Drixx]

In fact, I'm going to

Unvote

until Dave responds to Seraphim.

Unvote

just in case it has to be at the start of the line.

[Drixx]

By my count we have 33 hours, 13 minutes and some change from this post ... plenty of time to do this right and not rush it.

As a note for anyone who missed it, Brantz claimed

Vanilla Townie

in 664.

[Drixx]

Of course scum would claim VT. That's not why I pointed it out.

Thank you for responding Dave. I'd like to see a little more urgency from you though. Seraphim is pushing a case against you because you replaced an inactive IC player who normally is super active. The thing is, the whole case depends on the premise that DDD was lying about why he was inactive, but as far as I can tell, he normally plays aggressively and actively no matter his alignment. This is at least weak evidence that a case based upon inactivity is suspect.

So why aren't you fighting back against Seraphim's case?

[Drixx]

@snscompt1 - Why did you put Brantz right back at L-1 when I unvoted so we don't rush things? That looks super scummy man. We have enough time left that there's no need to rush.

You said you wanted to vote ForWhomTheJellyRolls ... but I see no reasons or case from you. Care to share?

[Drixx]

Fair enough snscompt1. I actually didn't have a very strong scum read on letters, which I'm sure you saw when you read the thread. BRantz actually is where my scum read came from on the slot.

@BRantz - I don't think you're gonna make it out of today. If you are really what you claim, now is a very good time to re-hash all your thoughts in one place, as simply as possible.

Intent to hammer

.

[Drixx]

His first post in the game arguably has a taunting tell. He makes a thorough reads list and then proceeds to hedge throughout. Then he hops all over the place with votes. A large lack of consistency in apparent level of effort throughout his ISO.

There's a lot of things. Just read through the ISO and I think they're kind of obvious. Recent experience has taught me to be cautious of reading too much into what might be newbie slips, but his ISO makes a lot of sense if you assume he's scum, and very little if you assume he's town. BRantz comes across as intelligent and thoughtful, which makes me believe his play should be more intentional than not.

[Drixx]

I'm going to hold off on the hammer until afternoon tomorrow my time. If anyone has anything that needs saying today, be sure to say it.

[Drixx]

We're in MYLO. MYLO happens when the town has one more alive player than LYLO. The terms mean as follows:

1.) MYLO = Mislynch and lose. If the town lynches incorrectly, then the game is over (barring any blocking of the night kill)
2.) LYLO = Lynch or Lose. The town MUST lynch and do so correctly, or they lose (again, barring any blocking of night kill)

Since we lost a jailkeeper, it's very likely that Diego jailkept the scum who submitted kill either one or both nights. After the 2nd non kill night, he

really

should have claimed. We now have nothing from him when he potentially could have won the game with a claim. That hurts. A lot.

@NumberQ - Why did you hammer when I had given intent and a timeframe? Were you afraid that someone might say something vital? I left that time open,

specifically

so town PRs could think about whether to claim before the night. I didn't ask them to, but it's correct play to let them have the chance. You came in and unilaterally shut down that opportunity. That's really quite scummy.

[Drixx]

A No Lynch is not what the scum team wants today. Even so, it's almost certainly something a smart scum would consider very townie to do. That bumps snscompt1 way up the scum meter. His partner will be in the not voting group.

Seraphim was supposed to have all sorts of insight, but has gone oddly quiet. I'm going to state intent to vote Seraphim. {Intent to vote Serpahim}

[Drixx]

It's only a net positive to town to no lynch if we cannot agree that someone is scum today. It is of

higher

value to correctly lynch scum today and have a 3v1 MYLO situation tomorrow.

You're absolutely correct that the situation concerning the choice to no lynch has a lot of WiFoM in it. What I said about you was a reaction test and you surprised me by giving not a full out townie response but not a full out scummy response either. If I had to stake my life on it, I'd say that you read genuinely townie in how you responded to me. In my experience, good scum will either respond as too townie to be believable (I recently lost a game by believing a scum who played perfectly townie at end game), or over the top scummy such that nobody believes that scum would be that scummy. You did what most town does. I now feel

slightly

better about this end game.

[Drixx]

I would like for the 5 of you to do something. I'm not going to provide any guidance on what I expect, but I

will

tell you that I'll be evaluating your effort, looking for specific things that will help me firm up my reads. Refusal to do this is obviously a bad thing.

I would like each of you to give as thorough a read as possible on all living players, as soon as possible. Don't refer me to prior posts. I want a single post from each of you that addresses everyone. No hedging. There's obviously quite a lot at stake here, and I'm sure the town players will be happy to do this for the win.

I will go last (I wouldn't ask you all to do something I won't myself). If you think about it, you should realize there's zero utility value in going last and some potential downsides. (In case someone wants to argue about this request on idiot ball grounds).

[Drixx]

Thank you snscompt1. I will keep my cards close to my vest until everyone answers. Then I'll give my own list. Then I'll explain what I was looking for and suggest how I believe we should proceed.

[Drixx]

I appreciate the effort, although I have to say nobody really went into the depth that I was hoping for. Regardless, once Seraphim does his I'll do mine and give my thoughts.

[Drixx]

For whatever it's worth, I was asking people not to refer me to their own prior posts with reads. Some people respond to a request for reads by saying "look at my prior posts..." (and they don't always link to them either).

[Drixx]

Gonna give Seraphim another 48 hours from this post to respond.

[Drixx]

He's got another 2 hours and 19 minutes to respond. I've got some prepared thoughts already though. There's no reason to rush into a loss when we can be careful and win.

[Drixx]

Apologies for neglecting this particular game for the last day or so. I replaced into a game with a ridonkulous number of posts and fried my brain trying to do a proper read. Full thoughts and intent to vote coming in a bit. If it's late for you, don't stay up as it may be morning East Cost when my post goes up.

[Drixx]

Okay guys,

I apologize ahead of time, because this is going to be a

long

post. Before I evaluate your reads lists and give my thoughts and finally what I think we should do, let me preface all of that by explaining why I asked for what I did and what I was looking for. Sadly, I shot myself in the foot by not being 100% clear what I didn't want was for you to tell me to go look at something else you had said. I would have preferred that you used quotes and contextual evidence in your reads; however, nobody did that and it seems reasonable to read what I said the way you did. I did clarify before all the read lists came in; however, so there's a slight negative mark against Seraphim for copying what the others did even after I clarified (and given that he took a lot of extra time to produce not a lot of content).

Without further adieu, I will evaluate the reads lists, then give my own reads and post number citations so you can all follow my thinking and give feedback, and finally I'll suggest what we ought to do.

Spoiler: snscompt1

How about a brief read. If I can't link quotes and posts then this is what you get:

Town(in order)
Drixx-Kinda running the show here and has been thorough in scum hunting and questioning others. Very protown.
Numbers-Gave a town slip a few posts ago and I believe it. Previous to that I thought him to be null.

Jelly-Thought he was scum with BRantz. BRantz flipped town and that theory went out the window. Has not actually done a lot of anything.

Seraphim-Diego thought this slot was scum for a reason. Seraphim wants to go forth with a lynch and have us play the odds. Keeps referring to himself as an obviously town player.
Davesaz-DDD is my reason for voting him as stated above. DDD did nothing. His content lacked, he made sarcastic jokes, one of which even saying he was scum. There is typically a grain of truth in every lie, and that grain is actually a field of wheat.

First one to respond to my request for reads. Made a note about "if I can't link quotes and posts...". Slightly scummy because could have asked for clarification. Seems to be giving an excuse for a less optimal reads list. Negated almost fully by me being unclear.

Like everyone else, snscompt lists me as town. Since everyone did this, trying to glean anything from it is just a lot of wine.

I notice that I am confused by the Jelly read here.

The biggest things I was looking for were:

1.) Originality (no sheeping)
2.) Buddying me (Everyone put me at strong town, so this doesn't help)
3.) Reads that were non-commital or too strong.

snscompt1 didn't trip over anything I was looking for. Slight town since he answered first, didn't sheep, and appears to have actually evaluated people.

Strongest scum read is against Davesaz

Spoiler: ForWhomTheJellyRolls

I actually think we should lynch today if we agree on someone and are all relatively sure we've hit scum. If we're not sure then I think a no lynch is better.

As per your request Drixx.

Drixx: Town read. I have been a bit iffy on a few things that you've done but I don't think you are scum. I think you are clearly trying to find the scums. I'm going to leave it there.

Snscompt1: I think is town. I had a town read on Zombiekitty because of some of her reactions to me read townie to me. Snscompt1 has been doing some active scumhunting that looks particularly townie to me.
I do want to know what the townslip you say about Numbers was. I'm not sure if you actually mentioned that prior to your reads list here.

Davesaz; I think is scum. He comes in and does a VCA which I'm not sure was that helpful. Then he doesn't do much until he make a case on BRantz that looks a bit contrived. BRantz and davesas were the top wagons at the time. He gives a reads list that shows BRantz as his top scum pick and selects ZombieKitty and NumberQ as weak scum without really explaining it. Then he spends most of the rest of the day trying to defend himself or tunnel on BRantz. I'm not sure what to think of his case on NumberQ but it might come up in my read on NumberQ. All in all I think Davesaz is one of the scums.

See I'm not sure between Seraphim and NumberQ who the other one is, which is one reason why I'm curious what NumberQ's townslip is according to snscompt1.

I'm really not sure who the other scum is. I really think davesaz is though. I've got a bit going on so this is the best I can do atm.

1.) Not sheeping
2.) Hedged on reading me. Seems like he doesn't want to say he's sure of anything. Newer scum are hesitant to appear

too

sure since they know, and sometimes overcompensate.
3.) Didn't read everyone. Non-commital on reads for the most part, except for the tunneling on Davesaz. Didn't give reasons or thoughts on NumberQ or Seraphim

This response is suspect. Coupled with a lack of scum hunting in the ISO, this could be a scum trying to get by on low activity hoping not to be noticed.

Strongest scum read is against Davesaz

Spoiler: numberQ

In order of the opening mod post.

snscompt1: I've found this slot scummy for a while, but the reason for that was mainly a lack of meaningful activity. I think that's turned around a lot recently, so I'm getting a more town feel from him.

ForWhomTheJellyRolls: I had a town read on him once upon a time but now it's null at best because he just hasn't contributed a whole lot. (That's ignoring the fact that he town-slipped in an earlier post; if you include that, I do think he's town.)

Drixx: Very town imo. It's been said before, but basically Drixx is an active, thorough scumhunter, despite some early game weirdness (mainly, it seems, because of site meta confusion or something like that).

Seraphim: A few people are saying he's scum but I still have a mostly town read on him, mainly due to his scumhunting and good participation in discussions. There's been a post or two recently I didn't like, but for the most part I see him as town. Can someone point out why they think he's scum? I'm not seeing it, and I only included him on my list of potential scum earlier because of PoE.

davesaz: I'm definitely starting to see things from the pov that he's scum. Though I'm hesitant to be more assertive here, because whenever someone scummy votes me, I can never tell if I think they're scummy because of OMGUS or because I actually think they're scummy.

Man, I'm realizing I have at least semi-town reads on most of the players. I still think the scum team is somewhere in dave, snscompt, and Seraphim.

1.) Explains each read, and even points out potential failure modes in his reads.
2.) Lists me as town.
3.) Assertive with reads, while allowing for change but not overtly hedging.

Strongest scum read is davesaz

Spoiler: davesaz

numberQ: Had him as weak scum yesterday. I really think the little back and forth with Diego that I pointed out means that he recognized Diego as JK and that scum would know that where town wouldn't. Scum can easily manufacture the so-called townslip. I have a scum read on him, but it's only a medium.

Drixx: Very town, strong drive to figure things out.

snscompt1: I thought that zombiekitty looked scummy for the previous hammer, but the ensuing discussion downgraded it to derpy. I thought snscompt1's entry was OK, and today's approach to analyzing whether the better move is to lynch or no-lynch is fairly townie. Weak town.

ForWhomTheJellyRolls: I'm not seeing the kind of push that is needed from town in this position. It makes me think that he's waiting to see which way the wind blows so he can go along. That's a scum tactic, so I have a weak scum on him.

Seraphim: I wasn't a big fan of his reading DDD on activity meta. But I think his reads on other slots are relatively town motivated. Very weak town. Definitely a position that scum could fake fairly convincingly, but I have enough scum reads.

1.) Reads are not sheeped at all. Appears to be evaluating the main points that stick out about each player. Is evaluating people on whether they are analyzing the game and trying to find scum.
2.) Same as everyone else
3.) Firm in his reads. A little ping from the final sentence.

numberQ is the strongest scumread here, primarily for interaction with Diego who is conftownPR

Spoiler: Seraphim

Alright, reads:

Drixx - town. Earnest, cares about the game, cares about scumhunting. I can point to plenty of posts where I've seen Drixx leading the town in a manner that looks town to me. If he's scum, he is doing an incredibly impressive job.

NumberQ - weakish town. Same as Drixx, but not quite as strong. I also think there are a number of so-called "towntells" that could be attributed to him (as has already been pointed out) but my gut read is nowhere close to Drixx's for his town credentials. His responses to the early D3 wagon on him looks very town to me in particular; it demonstrated excellent and honest calm as well as a drive to scumhunt.

snscompt1 - nullish scum, I did not like his predecessor but this current iteration is doing a lot better at what looks like real scumhunting and engagement. He is perfectly middle of the road for me at the moment.

FWTJR - nullish scum, since sns has replaced in, my read here has slipped. His recent absence (relative, I know I've been holding things up) looks more like scum play rather than hands-off town. I would have a hard time choosing between him and sns for the last scum.

davesaz - SCUM. Do people really need me to reiterate? DDD and his now-replacement have been weak town players with only a passing interest in scumhunting. Scum scum scum scum on a cracker, lynch it lynch it. It's the sort of passivity you expect to see from scum perfectly personified.

1.) Accounting for him going last, this doesn't look sheeped.
2.) Same.
3.) Very firm reads.

Strongest scum read is davesaz

My own reads and then thoughts:

Snscompt1 - Has been assertive and contributive since replacing in for zombiekitty. The slot early hammered someone who was going to be lynched anyway. This doesn't seem like a risk that even new scum would take. Snscompt's play combined with the context of the slot make this a probable town slot.

FWTJR - The only bad thing I can say about the slot is that Jelly said he was going to ISO Diego and try to figure out what Diego might have known, but then never did so. Null leaning town.

numberQ - Actively and consistently engaged for the entire game since replacing in. Rails against inactivity and slow pace. Either is town or doing a fantastic job pretending to be. Dave had a point about the response to Diego's "After last night" thing; however, that seems like hindsight bias at best, since none of the rest of us seem to have caught it until after the fact. Null leaning slight scum because there's something that feels like a performance about numberQ's play. Given the odd pacing of this game, I feel like what I'm seeing from numberQ's ISO it calculated to stand out as town looking, but I feel like a real active and aggressive townie would have stood out even more in this particular game. It's an odd argument and more gut than rational, which is why I don't have numberQ as outright scum.

Davesaz - Replaced someone who never did any actual scumhunting but just played a reactive game. Slot looked bad to begin with and Dave hasn't made it look much better. Everyone has him as the top scum candidate (except for himself). Worst case this is 2 town and 2 scum reading him scummy and from his ISO I tend to agree with reading him scummy, so it's more like 4 town and 1 scum reading him as scummy. The question is which person is busing here.

Seraphim - My personal choice for 2nd scum. Stalled a lot on giving reads that should only have taken a few minutes to type up. Replaced into a slot that Diego made a huge conspiracy theory up to suggest was scummy. Bad associatives on the slot. First player on the slot did almost no actual scumhunting. Made promises to do things but never did so, finally being replaced by Seraphim. Seraphim buddied me from the second he got into the thread. Was vouched for as town by the top scum slot early in the game. That's a lot of WiFoM, but should be noted assuming we get it right today.


----------------------------

I had hoped to catch scum making a more obvious mistake. Generally scum can't help but reveal themselves when pressed to give actual thoughts on everyone.

That said, Davesaz almost certainly is scum. PoE points to him, he's trying very hard (while I've been putting this post together especially) to pick up town points (in response to being everyone's top scum read I presume).

Since everyone has listed me as trusted and strong town, if we go with the "No lynch" option today, then I am almost certainly going to get killed. This makes the "no lynch" option seem like a pretty dumb choice, since everyone is reading me as town and having that confirmed won't really help the remaining 3 townies in tomorrow's day phase. I think, therefore, that we should make the best decision we can today. There are three people that I would be willing to vote for, but try as I might I cannot logically discount the fact that everyone has davesaz as their top scum read (except davesaz, of course).

It seems like the best course of action is to hope that the 4 of us who are town aren't all wrong and lynch Davesaz. Evaluation of his associatives, voting patterns and reads should hopefully help win the game tomorrow. Obviously assuming we get it right with davesaz, then tomorrow should also be MYLO and I would suggest to town players to consider a "no lynch" then, as presumably I will be dead and the night kill to set up a 2v1 LYLO would actually be useful in narrowing down the suspect pool at that point.

Intent to vote Davesaz

I believe it would be good to let Davesaz defend himself and also for others to evaluate my own thoughts before we pull the trigger, but I don't see a lot of reason to drag this day out much longer, unless Davesaz comes up with something incredibly convincing. I would also like to apologize for how long it took to get this posted.

[Drixx]

Perhaps it's time to get out the multi-quote and

make us understand

then?

[Drixx]

dave, who do you think my partner is if I'm scum?

This is a horrible question. Townies should never try the "Oh yeah?! If you're so sure I'm scum, then who is my partner?" as a defense.

[Drixx]

I'm the one everyone seems to trust (and the two scum know) is town. I take responsibility of the conclusion that arose out of me directing things ends up costing us the game. I don't think it will, but I cannot be 100% sure.

Therefore I am willing to hammer and be the main responsible party. If you agree with my analysis, then get on with voting and hopefully we get to have another MYLO tomorrow and sufficient data to bring home the win.

[Drixx]

dave, who do you think my partner is if I'm scum?

This is a horrible question. Townies should never try the "Oh yeah?! If you're so sure I'm scum, then who is my partner?" as a defense.

It wasn't meant to be a defense. His latest posts have nothing I can even really respond to that wouldn't just be running in circles. Why is it horrible to want to know who else, if anyone, he thinks is scum?

Also, what's stopping you from voting now, Drixx? Why do you have to be the hammer?

There's a very high utility value in the voting order in MYLO/LYLO situations. Since everyone listed me as a town read, it makes sense for me to hold my vote and evaluate what happens. The information necessary to win could come from the way the votes play out.

[Drixx]

Also ... super sorry numberQ ... for some reason I thought it was dave posting that question to you, not the other way round. That's why one shouldn't make important endgame posts when vastly tired at 1am.

[Drixx]

That was ... unexpected.

[Drixx]

I'm going to bite my tongue and let Seraphim share his thoughts.

[Drixx]

Voted for Dave: Snscmpt1, Seraphim, numberQ

FWTJR had a chance to vote and put Dave at L-1, with me having stated intent to vote and saying that I would hammer, and passed it up.

So logically, we have at least weak evidence that either Dave is scum or the two scum are among the 3 who voted for him, or else the game should be over right now.

The two BP claims probably make today a 1v1 decision. So the slot to read carefully is Snscompt1. He did indeed breadcrumb "PROOF", but that could have been a really savvy scum play upon replacing in, set up for just such a situation as this.

The question is whether scum could have known that Diego was a Jailkeeper before his flip. The timing seems to favor Snscompt1 in that regard. He replaced in during the BRantz wagon and breadcrumbed

before

Diego flipped.

[Drixx]

I'm going to bite my tongue and let Seraphim share his thoughts.

Turns out his thoughts weren't so great.

[Drixx]

Wow the WiFoM got really thick in this game really fast.

I think I'm still feeling like Davesaz is very likely scum with {Seraphim, FWTJR, numberQ} as the likeliest partners, in descending order. Diego's crazy "theory" post that never made sense as an actual theory, unless he knew something and went looking for thread evidence to back it up, admittedly plays a strong role in the ordering of that.


Davesaz admitting to the fakeclaim almost confirms Snscompt1. There's an edge case where the scum team could include Snscompt1, and Snscompt1 could have realized Diego was the jailkeeper, and known that nobody could counterclaim BP truthfully (as scum if his team has no roleblocker, then seeing a JK would confirm that the town had no other PRs). It borders on the insanely high level of ability to believe that he could have seen that and breadcrumbed a fake out for himself. If he did so, he kinda deserves to win.

[Drixx]

It does seem like a really ballsy scum play ... but it is super effective. Even I am in extreme doubt right now.

As a general rule, the only town role which should ever lie in a newbie matrix game is the doctor, and the doctor should lie in the form of "I am either a tracker or a bulletproof" so that no other town PRs get drawn out by the lie and so that scum also cannot know. That's really the only scenario in the open setup newbie matrix games where lying is the right play.

I'm going to be really irritated if Davesaz is town. That said, I know there are three other townies in this game alive with me, and not one of you made any kind of case to go after someone else. I said I'd take responsibility, so if this is the losing move, it's on me.

VOTE: Davesaz

@Dave (or team scum if you just won) - Please don't leave us hanging in suspense here. That's just insult to injury if we've lost.

[Drixx]

Gah!

[Drixx]

I'm really irritated with myself.