Newbie 1572 - Chicken Parmigiana Mafia (Over)

[BRantz]

So deadline is in three days and we've like what, three pages of posting? Come on, people. I only have one vote, this needs to be a TEAM effort.

numberQ: convince me of zombiekitty scum. ZK is definitely null for me, show me some aspect of the posting that I'm missing.

QFT, but I am going to add, convince me that you aren't.

[DeasVail]

Vote Count 3.05

Debonair Danny DiPietro (3)- Diego1487, Seraphim, zombiekitty
BRantz (2)- ForWhomTheJellyRolls, Drixx
numberQ (2)- Debonair Danny DiPietro, BRantz
zombiekitty (1)- numberQ

Not voting: No one!

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

5th March, 7am AEDT. This is in (expired on 2015-03-04 16:00:00).

[Diego1487]

@ mod, no big deal but BRantz only has two votes.

[Diego1487]

@ drixx, I know earlier you said something about reading DDD as scummy. Where are you at on him right now?

[Drixx]

@ drixx, I know earlier you said something about reading DDD as scummy. Where are you at on him right now?

About where I expected they would be once a wagon got any momentum on him. He has played the game very reactive and basically been dismissive when he has decided to engage with the game. Now that he's being scum read for it, he can't really change his approach since doing so would look like flailing and just make the situation worse. That's why I didn't see any point in trying to pressure him earlier ... there's not sufficient content in the game from him to make a sound case against him, and now that there are 3 votes on him, he's reacted the only way he can. Unfortunately that reaction doesn't tell us anything about whether he's scum or not.

The only thing I can do is re-read and see if I missed something out of him, one way or the other. I went to the hospital on Thursday night with some pretty severe pain and tightness in my left shoulder, chest and neck area, and some bad heartburn that had no apparent cause from anything I ate. Everything checks out okay, but I got no sleep until late last night and I'm still feeling out of sorts from the original symptoms (diagnosed as skeletal/muscular in nature) plus the various tests weren't exactly pleasant. I know we're running out of time and I'll try and get a read done by mid-day tomorrow at the latest.

I'm not the only one who can re-read the thread though.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@mod: I've never done this before and it feels awful to do so now but I literally can't summon any motivation for mafia and thus need to request to be replaced. Apologies to everyone for the awful example but you deserve to have an IC who'll give the game some effort.

[DeasVail]

@ mod, no big deal but BRantz only has two votes.

Thanks, fixed.

@mod: I've never done this before and it feels awful to do so now but I literally can't summon any motivation for mafia and thus need to request to be replaced. Apologies to everyone for the awful example but you deserve to have an IC who'll give the game some effort.

Thanks for letting me know.

Replacing Debonair Danny DiPietro.

[BRantz]

Feel better Drixx, your actual health will always be more important than this game.

[DeasVail]

Davesaz replaces Debonair Danny DiPietro.

[davesaz]

Howdy All. It's 1AM here and it will take some time to read. My best guess is that I'll be able to get something substantial posted in 12 hours or so.

[ForWhomTheJellyRolls]

Hi davesaz, good luck.

[davesaz]

IC comments

Since I'm taking over an IC slot, I wear two hats. One for the alignment/role I have in the game, and the other to provide helpful commentary on the state of the game. This is my first time taking the IC role, so I'll be feeling my way though to the best way to handle it. Keep in mind that IC comments are not necessarily indicative of alignment.

When replacing into a game in an advanced state, there are several ways to approach it. One way is to skim through the game making notes of interesting posts, and post a running summary of what you see. Another way is to look at just the last few pages to get reads on the other players' most recent activities. Another way is to open "ISO" views on players to look at their whole history. Some people replace in very quickly, others take their time to get caught up. The delay (or lack) is usually not alignment indicative by itself.

On the game state: A D1 no-lynch typically benefits scum. Vote count analysis might reveal some possible scum suspects. Since Newbie games are played with a semi-open setup involving random roles, the no-kills may be the result of town roles interfering with the night kills. It is also possible for scum to intentionally no-kill, to try to give town power roles false results that they will reveal prematurely or use to mislynch.

[davesaz]

Starting with the D1 VCA. Others may have done this already but I prefer to do it myself when I replace in, vs trying to look it up and check it for accuracy.

Vote Count 1.12

fjkldsjh (4)- Debonair Danny DiPietro, Pramitz, Diego1487, zombiekitty

[L-1]

Diego1487 (2)-

Bitmap

,

Drixx

Pramitz (1)-

fjkldsjh

Debonair Danny DiPietro (1)-

ika

Not voting:

numberQ

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Ika was town. There were 4 players with the opportunity to hammer (numberQ, fkjldsjh, Bitmap, Drixx). By itself it doesn't mean much, just one clue of many possible. And I didn't review posting around the time of deadline to see who might have been unavailable at that time.

As for on the wagon, in my experience I'd be really surprised to find both scum on a D1 wagon at deadline. One scum is certainly possible though. I can rule out myself, but any of the others could fit that clue. I do think we're looking for either one on and one off, or both off.

[davesaz]

I'm not looking for PR's to claim. Don't do it. If you have crumbed a result, I'll probably find it on my own.

When I did a read through of D3, I did get some ideas on scum but there isn't much time to get it right. I don't want to incite a mislynch by jumping to conclusions. Can't promise to nail 'em but I want to do my best.

[ForWhomTheJellyRolls]

Starting with the D1 VCA. Others may have done this already but I prefer to do it myself when I replace in, vs trying to look it up and check it for accuracy.

Vote Count 1.12

fjkldsjh (4)- Debonair Danny DiPietro, Pramitz, Diego1487, zombiekitty

[L-1]

Diego1487 (2)-

Bitmap

,

Drixx

Pramitz (1)-

fjkldsjh

Debonair Danny DiPietro (1)-

ika

Not voting:

numberQ

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Ika was town. There were 4 players with the opportunity to hammer (numberQ, fkjldsjh, Bitmap, Drixx). By itself it doesn't mean much, just one clue of many possible. And I didn't review posting around the time of deadline to see who might have been unavailable at that time.

As for on the wagon, in my experience I'd be really surprised to find both scum on a D1 wagon at deadline. One scum is certainly possible though. I can rule out myself, but any of the others could fit that clue. I do think we're looking for either one on and one off, or both off.

What are we looking at here? Ika was town. Yeah. I imagine it can't be hard to go back and find something that ika or his slot did that was townie after the fact here. I don't know what you're trying to say with that.

I'm not looking for PR's to claim. Don't do it. If you have crumbed a result, I'll probably find it on my own.

When I did a read through of D3, I did get some ideas on scum but there isn't much time to get it right. I don't want to incite a mislynch by jumping to conclusions. Can't promise to nail 'em but I want to do my best.

So what are you trying to do here? I realize there isn't much time left, but I don't know how helpful this information really has been. I suppose if we had more time to really digest everything sure, but you've given no indication as to what you actually are thinking. Obviously you're not going to advocate voting yourself since you're the biggest wagon. Is there anything about the people on the other wagons (or anyone else) that strike you as scummy? I know you don't want to incite a mislynch but your input might be helpful to see where you stand.

[davesaz]

What are we looking at here? Ika was town. Yeah. I imagine it can't be hard to go back and find something that ika or his slot did that was townie after the fact here. I don't know what you're trying to say with that.

You're right, I messed up and left something out of the explanation. Here is an expanded version. Sorry, sometimes I think but don't type. Added material in italics.

No-lynch is good for scum. So I'm analyzing the vote to see who had the opportunity to force the no-lynch (more correctly, who had the opportunity to prevent it and didn't take it). The people shown in different colors (blue or purple) are the ones who were not on the wagon.

Ika

(in blue)

was town

(so we can ignore him)

. There were 4

(unknown alignment in purple)

players with the opportunity to hammer (numberQ, fkjldsjh, Bitmap, Drixx). By itself it doesn't mean much, just one clue of many possible. And I didn't review posting around the time of deadline to see who might have been unavailable at that time.

I would look at these 4 as possible scum.

As for on the wagon, in my experience I'd be really surprised to find both scum on a D1 wagon at deadline. One scum is certainly possible though. I can rule out myself, but any of the others could fit that clue. I do think we're looking for either one on and one off, or both off.

Consequently the probability of scum being in the 4 mentioned above is higher than being in the people on the wagon, based on the D1 VCA alone. This is not enough to lynch on.

[davesaz]

I'm working on it, posting notes as I go.

[Drixx]

I know you are only obligated to truthfully talk about theory,

as you understand it

, but do you REALLY buy VCA?

VCA might be supported by an analysis of all the games housed on this site, as a large scale probabilistic measure; however, I am unaware of any project to actually document it. It may be true on a large meta scale, whether or not anyone has proven it. The problem with statistics and probability on a large scale is that it doesn't (and cannot) be applied to individual instances.

I seriously shake my head every time someone tries to make VCA the primary method to find scum. It

might[/b] be a useful small tool to help sort thoughts or to spend time on evaluating things which are more probable, but any argument that rests solely on VCA theory is doomed to be manipulated by any scum who knows what it is and pays enough attention to know how to manipulate you via it.

Do you have some actual effort to show us, or should I just put you at L-1 now?

[Drixx]

Tag fail:

[davesaz]

There is more. Have spent about the last 4 hours driving my wife around town. I clearly said it is a starting point. Patience please.

[davesaz]

3 hours... Now eating...

[numberQ]

numberQ: convince me of zombiekitty scum. ZK is definitely null for me, show me some aspect of the posting that I'm missing.

Post 510 from me contains a lot of my reasons, mainly that she continually comes up with excuses not to scumhunt, then when she can't use those excuses anymore,

still

doesn't contribute anything worthwhile. All she seems to do is either vote with little/no reason or purpose (Pramitz in 197, Seraphim in 502) or else jump on bandwagons, also with little/no reason (BRantz's slot in 284, ika in 446, DDD in 559).

Post 568 and 482 are very similar. Both illustrate her habit of doing nothing until some goal is achieved (getting a flip in 482, rereading the thread in 568), but then continuing to do very little even after that goal. What will those questions in 568 accomplish? All she's doing is asking people for reads, which isn't a bad thing to do, but this late in the game there should be something else. Some reads of her own, at least. People keep saying DDD is coasting the game but zombiekitty is way worse, and that's why I'm voting her.

If that hasn't convinced you, summarize your case on DDD for me. So far I'm not seeing it but obviously others are. I'd hate to see a repeat of the no lynch day 1, but I'd also hate to jump on a bandwagon for only that reason.

[Drixx]

That's a fairly cogent argument numberQ. I can think of at least one reason that frequently influences new players to behave the way Zombiekitty has that isn't at all scummy. So ... how do I tell whether the kitty is legit scummy or just a newer player falling into bad play for a reason that many newbies also do the same thing?

[Seraphim]

That's a fairly cogent argument numberQ. I can think of at least one reason that frequently influences new players to behave the way Zombiekitty has that isn't at all scummy. So ... how do I tell whether the kitty is legit scummy or just a newer player falling into bad play for a reason that many newbies also do the same thing?

Can you clue us in on that reason?

If you help me lynch DDD (or his so-far unimpressive replacement) today, I will definitely help you lynch zombiekitty tomorrow. Color me convinced by your arguments but not convinced enough to move my vote.

[Seraphim]

Also your post really helped me lock onto a townread for you which narrows the pool to davesaz/BRantz/ZK for scum/null so thanks for that.