Newbie 1591 (Day 3)

[Coldwine]

Good evening everybody.

[Coldwine]

Hello, I'm Coldwine. I've played mafia before on DDO, which I've gathered is quite different from here as far as site meta goes.

Might as well build some pressure.

VOTE: Saad

[Coldwine]

Right now, I think Saad is a good lynch.

Why?

Also, I'm curious, since multiple people are voting Saad: Do you guys actually think he could be mafia? I do, but I'm gonna keep it to myself for now.

Do share.

[Coldwine]

I do like being a beaver! They're so cute. Saad is suspicious because he hasn't been very active, and is probably trying to lay low, make it through the first day and meet up with his mafia buddies in the night.

He might even be the roleblocker, seeing if he can get any idea about someone's abilities to stop them.

What makes you say that he, in particular, is the roleblocker? Where has he fished for roles, and how could what he has done not be town motivated?

To the experienced players: what is SOP on this site when it comes to claims in general, and DP1 claims in particular?

[Coldwine]

@ town.

Here is what i think would be best of town to do, First lynch beast, we have some evidence to scummy play, then see how he flips.

Town
Ok, then to my eyes we can find saad to be innocent (defending bewilder even though he is voting for him)

That by no means constitutes a town confirmation in my eyes. That behavior is easily feigned by even a novice scum player.

and maybe find the mafia on saads wagon. even if this ends as him being town we are able to get more information on the game.

Giving mafia information on how you're going to analyze the wagon before you do it defeats the entire point of wagon analysis.

Mafia
This is the ideal lynch, if he flips mafia then i belive we could suspect saad, for defending him. a double play, beast could be faking vote on saad to clear his name.

... so saad's defending him when he is scum is indicative of saad's being scum, even though town saad would have no idea as to his affiliation, and thus would equally defend or condemn behavior which he saw as town or scum regardless of beast's affiliation? This is not good reasoning.

or we could just sit here in two wagons. getting no more info.

Lynching this early is an utter waste of a DP.

[Coldwine]

To the experienced players: what is SOP on this site when it comes to claims in general, and DP1 claims in particular?

[...]

I'd rather not push for a claim right now as we finally saw some activity from Saad and I want to see where he is going with it.

Thank you, and I agree.

[Coldwine]

still give me the idea that you are trying to sell yourself as town. only scum needs to do that.

No, not necessarily. It's very important for town players to appear town to other town players, as townreading factors immensely into PoE, which is ony of the most potent scumhunting tools in town's arsenal. Attempting to appear town is, I think, only a scum tell if the attempt clashes with said player's other scummy behavior.

Have you picked up on any other scummy behaviors from heybox?

[Coldwine]

It's very important for town players to appear town to other town players

Sadly I don't agree with this. Town players shouldnt care about their appearances, because then that limits their natural actions/reactions. Town should only care about figuring out who's scum and who's town.

What is the point of trying to figure out who's scum and who's town if, in the process of doing so, you make it impossible for anyone else to figure out whether you are town or scum? If everyone played like that, it would be impossible to scum hunt at all. Town have to hold themselves to some standard of behavior, as they also have a responsibility to prevent their own needless mislynch.

Motivation and behavior can still be analysed when a person keeps the question 'will this get me mislynched?' in the back of their mind during the game. Unless you're reasonably sure that it's a 1:1 trade, if the answer to that question is 'yes' then it's not in the town's best interest to go through with it, correct?

[Coldwine]

heybox is town

Why?

I'm not convinced. 71 is largely contrived, and a bunch of his other posts seem to subtly imply that he is town in a way that gives off slight scum vibes to me. In 157 he wonders aloud if he will be killed, when doing so only gives mafia insight into town thought processes during the NP. In 173 he chides town and tells the rest of us to work together. In 171 he warns about how scum want us to think like that. I sort of get anarchist's point: it isn't just that he wants to be seen as town, and so he's hunting scum and building a good reputation to that end by being mindful of his image. It's that he's slipping unsubtle reminders into so many posts in a way that doesn't actually display town motivation. Town players should want town cred, but they shouldn't want ill-earned town cred. 161 is contrived; and he's arguing for a quick lynch, which is anti-town. He spends more posts talking about whom we should lynch if the lynch target whom he would like to rush through this DP flips inno/guilty next DP than he does actually hunting for scum.

Now this is his second game, so I can understand some unorthodoxy. But I see his behavior as vaguely troubling at this point, and see him as null/slight scum if anything. Could you ustify a town read on him?

[Coldwine]

Coldwine, what's contrived about 71? And asking for a quick lynch is inherently scummy, do you think he expects to get away with it as scum? Maybe the first day, but he's boned after that. I agree about him planning the lynch for the next day: that its... mysterious. I have an idea on why he's doing it.

Here: 97

I don't understand your question. It's a terrible play for either scum or town, so a rational player would chalk it up to noobiness. Either he intends for it to be brushed off, and we are underestimating him as scum, or he is just being silly. One is null as far as affiliation goes, though anti-town when it comes to results, and the other has scum utility.

What is your idea?

[Coldwine]

Spoiler:

heybox is town

Why?

I'm not convinced. 71 is largely contrived, and a bunch of his other posts seem to subtly imply that he is town in a way that gives off slight scum vibes to me. In 157 he wonders aloud if he will be killed, when doing so only gives mafia insight into town thought processes during the NP. In 173 he chides town and tells the rest of us to work together. In 171 he warns about how scum want us to think like that. I sort of get anarchist's point: it isn't just that he wants to be seen as town, and so he's hunting scum and building a good reputation to that end by being mindful of his image. It's that he's slipping unsubtle reminders into so many posts in a way that doesn't actually display town motivation. Town players should want town cred, but they shouldn't want ill-earned town cred. 161 is contrived; and he's arguing for a quick lynch, which is anti-town. He spends more posts talking about whom we should lynch if the lynch target whom he would like to rush through this DP flips inno/guilty next DP than he does actually hunting for scum.

Now this is his second game, so I can understand some unorthodoxy. But I see his behavior as vaguely troubling at this point, and see him as null/slight scum if anything. Could you ustify a town read on him?

This is a pretty nice and thorough post, i'm surprised you didn't accompany it with a vote. Seems an awful lot of work in response to somebody town reading hex. Why did you not vote him?[/quote]

Because I don't have a strong enough scum read on either of them at this point to switch my vote from a player on whom I would like to maintain pressure. It's just a curiosity that stuck out to me, and I would like a response on it from Sera. There are plenty of hours left in the DP, so I can start a wagon once I have some more information and the other wagons have served their respective purposes if I need to.

[Coldwine]

Because I don't have a strong enough scum read on either of them at this point to switch my vote from a player on whom I would like to maintain pressure

from what I can tell from your posts I don't really get that impression that you are scum reading saad, so why would you want to keep the pressure on him? and why aren't you actually applying pressure on saad? Leaving your vote on him and not interacting with him isn't really accomplishing anything.

I was waiting for Sky to check back in, as the last time I spoke to her she wanted to observe Saad, and she's my strongest town read at the moment (though I don't usually develop very strong reads DP1). Her reaction to Saad's behaviour was also useful to observe.

I would have chimed in on the ridiculous bandwagon argument, but everyone else had it covered and I didn't want to clog up the DP with it. I'll leave my vote there until tomorrow or Saturday, whenever I have time to sit down and go over ISOs now that the DP is almost halfway over. I may also look into meta when it comes to the more experienced players as well.

[Coldwine]

do it, reconsider your read. i'm now in the limelight, not bewilder, so it makes sense for you to reconsider your read on me.

I love this tactic by you though, this is awesome so now whatever I do you can use it against me. If I don't reconsider my read you will twist it that i am somehow afraid and if I do change my vote you will twist it that I am hopping on an easy bandwagon.

I just did a meta dive on you, and am reasonably certain that you are town at this point, but could you please provide me with a link to a your most recent scum game in which you weren't inactive due to IRL issues so that I may seal the deal?

[Coldwine]

@Sky: Have you ever played a scum game on this site?

[Coldwine]

excluding my more recent games

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=42967
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=36651

Thanks. Yeah, I'm not voting for Jake anytime soon, and I would like those who are scum reading him to peruse these ISOs and make a substantive case as to how his meta here is at all similar to his scum meta. Otherwise, I will have a lot more scum reads tomorrow.

[Coldwine]

oh ok, so i need to get 4 more people to vote you then.

Do you think that Jake's behavior here is more in line with his behavior in previous town games, or previous scum games?

[Coldwine]

oh ok, so i need to get 4 more people to vote you then.

Do you think that Jake's behavior here is more in line with his behavior in previous town games, or previous scum games?

don't see the relevance, a good scum player will play differently each game.

This isn't necessarily true, and that's why multiple games are analysed in any case. It's also why I asked for more active scum games. After browsing through three scum ISOs and two town ISOs, I've noticed that his game here fits much better to the town ISOs than the scum ones. If there are trends which hold for three scum games, they'd likely hold for this one if he were scum.

[Coldwine]

oh ok, so i need to get 4 more people to vote you then.

Do you think that Jake's behavior here is more in line with his behavior in previous town games, or previous scum games?

don't see the relevance, a good scum player will play differently each game.

This isn't necessarily true, and that's why multiple games are analysed in any case. It's also why I asked for more active scum games. After browsing through three scum ISOs and two town ISOs, I've noticed that his game here fits much better to the town ISOs than the scum ones. If there are trends which hold for three scum games, they'd likely hold for this one if he were scum.

past games are irrelevant, concentrate on what he's doing in this game.

I think that my vote is staying right where it is.

[Coldwine]

another reason why heyboxgaming could be scum, he's not having as much fun this game, he has participated less. mafia is a tough life, there's no fun on the dark side...

That's not true, I have a lot of fun playing as mafia or TP.

You really should claim at this point.

[Coldwine]

Spoiler:

ok before i die, wanted to get this off my chest.

JOSF is

unequivocally

town, all this was just a massive test to catch the scum and the town. i predicted i'd be first to die when the game started, that was my aim at the start of the game and because of my play, i've found one scum for sure.

why jake is town: obstinacy, unvoting at l-1, reconsidering, his persistence to get me lynched is very towny, because when i flip as town, he will be in the limelight, which mafia don't want.

now you need to look at the people who are subtly pushing on me. scums in there most likely.

ok as i said, i think i found 1 (one) mafia, and that mafia is heyboxgamimg. let me explain.

at the start of the game, he is being incredibly helpful to the newer players:

This is my second game of mafia and I had plenty of fun with my first =) I would love to know how much experience everybody has had with there games of Mafia? Whether it be on another site or this one.

also
@bewilderbeast You do not have to answer truthfully, otherwise games would end rather quickly.....

Here is my RVS (Random Voting Stage)

idk maybe i'm looking too much into this, but it seems fishy to me. being helpful could make people lean town on him, it seems like a scum tactic to voluntarily tell us what the terms mean and whatnot in order to seem like a helpful towny, since surely that's the job of the IC or the game mod? the 'rvs (random voting stage)' kinda reinforces this point as well.

You can vote by,VOTE: insert name here VOTE: with a backslash before the second vote (in the bracket).

Also, RVS is great to get to know the people you are playing with, and gives you some ideas about what to ask other players and as it is mentioned above, good for adding pressure.

@All
I would also love for anybody who has any questions to ask them whenever convenient, I will do my best to answer them as quickly as possible.

To those who question RVS, what methods do you propose to get the conversation rolling??

that was well, ditto with my previous point. look how helpful he is being, explaining pretty simple stuff (hell it didn't take me long to figure out how to vote and what not) so to say that you need to put in tags and put in the backslash seems over excessive to me. the 'in the bracket' as well, no one asked him for this info, he is voluntarily doing the IC's job and this is scum trying to look towny.

ok so a bw on bewilderbeast starts to form. heyboxgaming latches on.

I would like to make a case on a day one lynch on bewilderbeast, call it a hunch.
1- Vote is jumpy, confusing as shown in #42
2- After a post about lurking, makes a case on lurking, also it’s too early in the game to have lurking as a case as shown in #32
3- Also, after a post about lurking he posts quite…. A lot. Maybe it’s just his play style, maybe he is trying to seem as if he is contributing even though nothing of value is really shown apart from RVS reasoning?

4- Directly states that he feels Saab is mafia (not scummy mind you) in post #50 and again all of this is on RVS logic?!?! (facepalm)
5- Jumps on bandwagon in post #29



I myself am not 100% certain of him being mafia, but mafia or not. Current posts are leading me to believe he is anti-town.

Current standings on reads are as follows

Town- Nobody

Scum- bewilderbeast

Unsure- Everybody else

ok looks decent on the surface. he tells us that he has a scumread and gives reasons. OK, nice job m8, but it's time to pick this apart.

1. his backtracking and safeguarding.

call it a hunch.

yet he gives reasons. seems like more than a hunch to me.

Also, after a post about lurking he posts quite…. A lot. Maybe it’s just his play style, maybe he is trying to seem as if he is contributing even though nothing of value is really shown apart from RVS reasoning?

he's posting a lot, which could indicate he is scum, but that may be the way he plays, so when he flips town, oh well it must have been his playstyle, my bad, I mentioned that in my case, now townread me.

Directly states that he feels Saab is mafia (not scummy mind you)

so if its not scummy, why use this as a reason?

2. the random list at the end, it doesn't even need to be there. he townreads no one, he scumreads only bewilder, it is unnecessary to include this list. this again seems like scum trying to be town.

OK now we move to this. originally i thought it was a town post but now I'm changing my stance slightly.

Here is what i think would be best of town to do, First lynch beast, we have some evidence to scummy play, then see how he flips.

Town
Ok, then to my eyes we can find saad to be innocent (defending bewilder even though he is voting for him) and maybe find the mafia on saads wagon. even if this ends as him being town we are able to get more information on the game.

Mafia
This is the ideal lynch, if he flips mafia then i belive we could suspect saad, for defending him. a double play, beast could be faking vote on saad to clear his name.

or we could just sit here in two wagons. getting no more info.

he's giving us a reason to get bewilder now, this is nervous scum trying to push the bw. 'if we get bewilder and hes town, then saad must be town, if hes mafia, saad is mafia' = lynch bewilder, lets go to n2, discuss a kill, push on saad d2, get him lynched, discuss kill, win LYLO.

Saad is being oddly defensive and protective of beast...

I might need to rethink my reads... this is certainly interesting.

Will post more tomorrow as it is very late here.

now this is when i was being suspected because of my defending of bewilder. heyboxgaming decides to reconsider his read because he finds my defending of him odd. this seems like to me that he sees me as a potential lynch over bewilder, so its in his best interests to get me swinging from the gallows.

Also, town read on paladin after the fantastic post that was #151 and I support your case that we may have found our two scum buddies already.

random tr. sky's posts are long, so he must be towny. scum trying to reinforce town status? i think so.

Personally I believe that either paladin or myself will be the night kill as everybody else seems a little bit over the place, although coldwine is a possibility

why would they kill you and why did you need to mention this? this is a weird thing to add... also why would they kill coldwine lol he's done nothing significant in this game.

So we should plan ahead. We shouldent put all of our eggs in the beast & saad basket.

but you have all this time...

next post responding to heybox, i get this:

This is exactly what a scum buddy would say. Your being really defensive and its letting in on your act.

In fact this whole post reeks of scum.

1 you say not to trust the person who is having a scum read on you yet you have said nothing to counter the claims
2 You say beast will not die and that's a fact, a major suspect to be scum.
3 and you don't want us to plan our next kill in advance while we have as many active players as possible.

so, saad. have I misinterpreted something? Am I wrong? Because if so its in your best interest to prove me wrong

you've gone from "lynch beast and if hes town then saad town" to "wow, he's defending bewilder, he must be mafia defending his partner". this is an odd progression to me, you've gone from stating logicalish reasons for getting rid of bewilder to wanting me gone as soon as the focus shifts. gone from, saad may be scum but i'm not sure, to, saad is definitely scum, in the space of 2 posts.

he then votes me, joining the bw. the rest of his stuff is just filler tbh, trying to contribute in between large gaps of lurking:

If arrogance is a sign of being scum, lynch me now XD for i must be the scummiest of them all!

(could be seen as scum arrogance)

Do not fear, I am still here

Just don't have all that much to contribute atm :/

(a lot had gone on, he could have reread).

sorry for the long post, but i have a wife and 10 kids to feed

UNVOTE:

Well that's an interesting development.

It seems that our strongest reads are in agreement then. I will be rereading some ISOs later this evening.

[Coldwine]

I'm going to keep my thoughts on Saad under wraps for now, and revisit them later once I have more to analyse. I'll wait for Seraphim and pablito at this point.

I found Highspace to be extremely scummy.

VOTE: pablito

[Coldwine]

Your case on me has proven that you are genuinely interested in hunting scum and not just sniping easy targets. It betrays a very public and town thinking persona. It is well thought-out even though for obvious reasons I completely disagree with its content. It is, in other words, very difficult perhaps impossible to fake. Hence, you are town. Which is good. I will work on responding to your points in due time.

You're usually much more abrasive as town. You say fuck a lot more often as well.

[Coldwine]

Have you considered that the reason for this might be that I'm an IC and feel like I should be less abrasive? Also, if you're going to bring in past game meta I would be very interested in what games you are looking at.

I scanned through the ISOs of all of the games on the first page and a bit on the second of your topics. I think there was only one scum game that I looked at, and you only posted a few times and were very non-confrontational, whereas you were much more aggressive in all of the town ones. Something about forest fires. The IC thing makes some sense; have you been IC before?

[Coldwine]

What is your opinion on Seraphim?

At this point, I'm leaning towards believing that Saad's 'combeback post' was coached, and that this is why it seems so much more mature than the rest of his posts. I think that Seraphim is a good candidate for being his mentor, and it's possible that he's much more active in the scum thread than he is in the game thread. I think that the rest of Saad's posts are so sloppy and disorganized that it's hard to believe that he's been working on some complex reaction test for this entire DP.

[Coldwine]

Scum ordinarily can't talk during the day phase - at least, none of the newbie games I was in, and whoever brought it up first was usually considered confirmed town for not knowing about it. So take a free +1 chance of being town token on the house.

What!? Well, that's going to completely alter how I approach scumhunting. ON DDO, the scum team is in a PM and can talk at any point from the game's opening to its close, and often strategize during the DP. Not being able to do that is going to impact scum behavior pretty extensively.

[Coldwine]

@Saad. Intent to hammer. If you don't claim by the time that I go to bed, you will be lynched.

[Coldwine]

Lady chance Saad. I'm giving you until this afternoon.

[Coldwine]

Lady chance Saad. I'm giving you until this afternoon.

Lady chance? Lol

Haha, last. Saad was on, but hasn't claimed. I'm hammering in twenty minutes.

[Coldwine]

Lady chance Saad. I'm giving you until this afternoon.

Lady chance? Lol

Haha, last. Saad was on, but hasn't claimed. I'm hammering in twenty minutes.

i claim villager townie; today an innocent man dies.

LOL

VOTE: Saad

[Coldwine]

Nice job guys. Pablito saved a scummy player spot. I was pretty sure that Sky was scum DP2, so at least one read was right!