Blitz 16: Blitz Greatest Idea Mafia(GAME OVER)

[Almost50]

/confirm

checking in.

RSV:

vote: FA

Reason: She's the only one I know well enough. Also glad to see you again, RC

Let's have a GOOD game everybody. I personally always enjoy Kraeg's "inventions".

[Almost50]

I've been dealt a scummy modifier whose only modifier is to make me look suss so Ima claim it now, avoid difficulties later. I have a gravedigger flavour. If you see me visiting literally everyone who dies in the night, don't be alarmed. I'm not satan.

OK, but is it a werewolf gravedigger, for instance?

You see, this is a standard Kraeg's game, and when he's in charge I just know nothing could be taken for granted.

It's looking interesting already.

@Persivul: I only played with him ONCE, and -although he did act very strange- he turned out to be a VT (which I already knew -of course- before I shot him at night)

[Almost50]

Oops. So TWO new posts... apologies go to Persivul. Nice move FA.

[Almost50]

I kinda sense this game is going to be SUPER CRAZY. Not that I didn't expect it, but with all those modifiers tossed in it feels like any given investigative role could just be rendered worthless.

My first 3 cards (first draw) were: Jailkeeper, Werewolf Bodyguard & Werewolf, so my combinations were: Town BodyGuard, Werewolf Bodyguard (and I obviously wouldn't choose to die for someone else), Vanilla Townie (not too interesting in a game like this), Werewolf & Werewolf Jailkeeper.

Basically I had no choice but to be a WW, so why not a Jailkeeper too, so that's what I picked.

However, I cannot complain about the 2nd draw outcome. This is much more fun (the role I got this time), AND it's town-aligned too (like you're going to just take my word for it).

Now for the real deal. RC is nothing like the RC he was in our previous game. Furthermore, he's getting "null" reads on him already, which is worrying. According to HIM, people read him as scummy when he's town and vise-versa, so I'm assuming he's got something to hide.

UNVOTE: FA

VOTE: RC

Let's hear you talking, my friend

[Almost50]

Going through the new posts for gist (I'll do it again for details) I came to notice this.

Hider is a very powerful town role, but a useless scum role.

I honestly felt dazzled enough that I felt the need to go back & double-check what Hider is. This is what I got:

The Hider has the ability to target one player each night. It is a Weak role and as such will die if it targets mafia. In case the hider targets a town-alligned player, he or she will be untargetable for all other roles. However, that does not mean the hider is entirely safe: should the person he or she is hiding behind get shot, the hider will be shot as well. This only goes for a nightkill.

Now could someone tell me how it is "VERY POWERFUL" to be TOWN Hider when you DIE if you target mafia, and still get killed if the town role you're hiding behinds gets shot??

Put another way, the only thing the Hider modifier benefits you is to escape investigations by hiding behind a town-aligned player, so the way I see it is: Town Hider sucks both ways, while Mafia Hider is powerful enough bc they already know not only who is town (so as to hide behind one), but even better who their faction will get shot at night (so that they will avoid hiding behind that one).

Even taking into account multiple factions could exist, this still narrows down the possibility of scum-hider targeting the wrong player, but increases the possibility of a town-hider to do so.

I also don't see what's so great about being a bodyguard, but I'll say "to each their own" on that one.

[Almost50]

Going through the whole thread from the beginning I noticed some of you are not strictly adhering to this rule:

3. Please bold all your votes, and please

always unvote when changing your votes

.

I'm wondering how the Mod's vote count would look like compared to the actual intentions of the players in question. I mean, will the 1st vote stand?? *Shrug*

Vote count requested, please.

[Almost50]

plus the only badies here are not mafia

How do you know?

WAIT! Do you mean "there is no mafia in this game"? Or did you mean "Not only mafia"??

[Almost50]

OK, let's do this before I go looking for some specific points:

UNVOTE: RC

Reason: He's back to the RC I know; having voted 5 different people already.

Honestly; you're all hard to read, but for some reason I'm getting town vibes from lane (just about the only one whom I have an opinion of at this time).

Now, this is VERY ODD to me: I cannot get a read on FA. Usually I'd have her pegged by now (regardless of her alignment), but not this time.

[Almost50]

Well, the easiest way to prove it is to have her say it herself.

The other way is to provide links to previous games NOT on this site. I'm not even sure if this is allowed or not (I'd have to check the site rules).

@ Smithereens

It's bc you guys do not UNVOTE before you vote someone new. I mean, I do have TWO other totally different counts, depending on whether the first vote stands or the last one stands.

For example, if the first vote stands until you unvote, RC's vote is on FA still. If we disregard the rule and count the last vote; then RC is currently voting Jackal, but then I'd only have FA & Ranger on me bc your 2nd vote is on Wednesday.

[Almost50]

Why you think you can't read ma baka (Almost50 - its just easier to call him baka ) ? ...

You answered it yourself:

yes I'm kind of trying to change my playstyle ...

You are simply not being the usual you.. you know.. the aggressive-defensive style is not there, so no scumtells detected, yet it doesn't feel "normal". *Shrug*

[Almost50]

ok baka what are your reads on others? what do you think about the wagon on you?

As I said, the only green vibes I'm getting thus far are from lane. I could add both RC & Wednesday as weak town reads, but that would be based on "something" in particular, and -also- on an unverified assumption, so I'm keeping them both on the null list for now.

Flubber is OK, I guess.. but he got on like two times; putting up a series of posts on both occasions, so still need to see more of him.

The rest are null, null & NULL. I feel most uncomfortable with the claimed modifiers, but then I have no idea which of them is true and which is likely not. (yes, that includes yours. Sorry, but that's how I feel about them. I think one of you 4 is actually scum & trying to confuse the investigative PRs).

What else? Oh, yes.. the wagon. Wait! What wagon? *Smirk*
Actually, nobody made a point worth responding to.

2 more points:

@FA: You also forgot to UNVOTE before voting RC. Go figure.

@Persivul: In case you missed it; I really really really love Kraeg's games. Always a delight to read games he previously modded as well.

[Almost50]

UM.. I hate to interrupt your extremely entertaining duels, but -as it is- it looks like we're going to spend the rest of the day inspecting Wednesday/Ranger then decide we need a lynch so we will have a random draw on someone else who will probably flip town as well.

I suggest we move on to inspecting someone else, and I don't mind that being me. The thing about Ranger/Wednesday will resolve itself automatically during the night (unless we have no Tracker, no Watcher, no Role Cop, .. etc.)

The way I see it (and I can't stress enough that this is highly dependent on an UNVERIFIED ASSUMPTION) that Wednesday IS indeed town. She knows Ranger to be town (how? I don't know. But she does).

I have no read on Ranger myself, but if we assume the above to be true I have no choice but to accept Wednesday's rule on Ranger to be town-aligned for now. (@FA: Remember the Firefly themed game?? I'm not sure that this is the case, but I'm just saying)

Contrary to what some believe; I read RC as town. One word posts, voting almost everybody, drawing everybody's attention are some traits of his town play; judging by the one and only game I played with him so far.

Persivul jumped up a few notched. He looks like he's doing his homework alright. What worries me is the 50-50 chance that his duel vs Ranger could be scum vs town just as much as it could be town vs town.

That -in a nutshell- is how I see the whole picture of this incident.

Oh, and before a certain someone starts pushing for it, my modifier does NOT affect investigation results, so -unless we have a framer, which I think does NOT exist in this setup- I should be cleared by all sorts of cops/investigators. So there...

[Almost50]

pedit : there is no mason rule here baka

Not masons.. the day investigator thing

[Almost50]

If not, then I have no idea how they're so positively sure of eachother's alignment. Let me try to verify something (I doubt I'd get a satisfactory response though)

@Wednesday & RC: Is Wednesday whom I think she is? Because the thing that went between you too earlier in this game, and the overall posting style rings bells, and THAT is what I'm basing my town read of Wednesday upon.

Wednesday; if you are whom I'm referring to, then you know what I'm talking about. RC should easily understand my question anyway.

[Almost50]

Nevermind. I've decided it's best to assume she's not unless either of them confirms she is. This way I can play mafia w/o relying much on their meta.

Now, Frozen, you did ask about my reads and I responded to your request. However, I need yours too. Also, please do mention the players you've played with before and think you know how to read them vs those whom you don't use meta analysis for.

Another thing: How do you analyze/perceive the modifier claims done so far? Are you inclined to believe them all? Some over some? Or what??

[Almost50]

Lol, is the cryptic speech really necessary?

Nothing too cryptic there, my friend. I just don't want to add more confusion to your lines of thoughts.

I got the impression Wednesday is Goodmorning, if that helps. IF so, then that's her style.

As for the Firefly game; it was a themed game myself and FA played in recently, and I was a flavoured day cop (so I did get to clear someone on D1). She was a mason partner of the person I cleared. I wanted to remind her of my role in that game for a "possible" explanation of how one of them (Wednesday & Ranger) reads the other, but I'm not sure how the other one did read them back.

[Almost50]

Oh, my. You're the genius of this game, aren't you?

So, Ranger is scum bc she made a joke, and bc she's town reading Wednesday. Wednesday is scum for town reading Ranger and playing along with her joke, and -also- for not pressuring me (which I suppose is a prerequisite for town status. I mean; your PM must've read: to prove you're town you must pressure Almost). And now I'm scum based on Wednesday not pressuring me, while Ranger is scum reading me for distancing I suppose??

Anyone else you wish to add to the same faction here? Oh, well.. I never thought it would be so hard, so I'll come clean. Yes, we're all werewolves. WAIT! Ranger already discarded "Werewolf". We must be Mafia then. HOLD ON! Wednesday discarded "Mafia Jailkeeper". We're -in fact- cult. But cult doesn't start with THREE players. A "group" of Serial Killers, maybe??

Are you even following your own analysis? Do you try to double-check your logic before you post? Or are you just thinking "I want to lynch someone, so better find some reason for it"??

Well, I still won't be hasty and pass a judgement on you, but I will advise you to focus and try harder to make some sense.

Finally; if I tried to follow your logic, you should be voting yourself right now bc you're pointing your finger on me w/o supporting it with a vote. Isn't this your own logic, my friend??

Oh, and btw >> I REALLY do like playing in Kraeg's games (almost forgot to tell YOU that).

OK, I'll try to say this ONCE: I'm town, with no investigative/informative abilities. No protective ability either, and I don't posses an active killing ability. Make of that what you will. So long, your Majesty.

[Almost50]

So, Ranger isn't scum but you couldn't care less and still tried to use her joke on her. Only when that failed did you redirect your attention to Wednesday. Nice logic.

And I still don't see your vote switched from Wednesday to myself. Any particular reason?

Btw, you post #195 means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. This is me and this is how I play. I just don't/didn't want to waste my time (and everybody's) responding to fluff which would eventually turn into WIFOM.

Did you notice mine #401 was in response to Smithereens' #398?? Did you? Smithereens was seeing my conversation with FA to cryptic, so I responded to her in an attempt to explain what was going between me and FA.

You see, unlike many others .. I do try to respond to questions/exclamations pointed at me, unless they become either absurd or redundant, in which case I'd let them talk to the hand. Now try ASKING questions to get answers.

[Almost50]

OK, Pervisul.. let's try this another way.. how do you read someone like Starbuck, for instance?

[Almost50]

If you go back and read my posts (to which you mostly object) I'm waiting on her and/or RC to confirm/deny her identity. If she IS Goodmorning then I have no reason to suspect her. I only played one game on this site before, and it involved GM as the IC and RC as one of the SE, and that's how they both played.

On the other hand, if she's NOT GM, then I'd have to reconsider. She's being a bit vague/unclear in her posting style, but nothing stands out as extremely scummy either.

The thng about Starbuck is the main issue I have on this site. People here tend to overlook/ignore the silent ones. Does it not strike you as a little suspicious that someone only posted twice in more than 48 hours? More so when it's a blitz game with only 96 hours day phase??

So, Wednesday is "pending" for now. Starbuck is alarming.

P-edit: Yes, and FYI it is uncommon of me to RVS too, but -having read a couple of random games on here- I noticed that this is considered scummy in itself. In fact, someone got lynched bc they didn't RSV.

I do not vote much on D1. In fact, there's a 50% chance I won't vote on D1 at all, and especially so in an advanced game where balance is not guaranteed. You mislynch on D1 and you mess it up for the rest of the game. My -admittedly limited- experience is we lynch a town vig, JOAT or anything similar. Someone who is a powerful PR, bc we simply don't know who to lynch.

Now that does NOT mean I'm an advocate of NL. I just want it to be the right one, or -at least- one that will yield most clues about our next move. If that is not the case, I would rather lynch someone who is barely active bc we're not getting much info from them anyway.

[Almost50]

@almost If I said that's private would you believe me?

What is?? I mean, I would be inclined to believe you if I knew what you meant precisely. Your "other" account? How you know Ranger is town?? What?

[Almost50]

@FA: I was asking Wednesday if hers was an alt account for GM, and she is telling me it's not.

[Almost50]

OK... too much info at once, but here is my response:

@Wednesday: PI only investigates CULT. So, maybe she's not cult and there's a very small chance she could be a WW. What about Mafia? How would you clear her from being Mafia??

Also, I looked up modifiers, and if she was given "Athiest" then she would investigate as NO CULT regardless, so .. ??

All this is assuming your modifier is DAY to begin with. Otherwise, there's nothing you could've investigated either, or am I totally lost?

[Almost50]

VOTE: Lane

This is so scum.

Damned if I know how you play this game at all!!!

RC; for the love of everything that is holy and sacred, please explain your vote for ONCE.

[Almost50]

Yes, I've argued in the past that conceptually lurkers should be policy lynched in some percentage of games, but you know damn well that doesn't happen. So, why bring it up?

Well, I don't know "damn well" what this specific group of players think, so I had to ask. But you do agree in essence that it's the right thing to do. You just don't think it will gain momentum. Right?

UNVOTE: Almost50
VOTE: Starbuck.
Vote may change (RadiantCowbells or Persivul in particular), but I'm thinking I was wrong on Almost50, and that Almost50 is town now.
Not absolutely sure, but enough where I'm not comfortable voting there anymore.

Throwing a vote on the guy with two posts?!? Whenever I want to start thinking you're town, you do something inexplicable.

Make up your mind. You're for it, but don't think it will happen, or do you think it "inexplicable" and anti town??

[Almost50]

And probability says we can be in lylo as much as we can be in 1 scum others town game...

Sorry, FA.. but this is totally NOT true. There's a minimum of 2 scum as per Kraeg's post #1

[Almost50]

if it helps him to talk lets have a wagon there.

I don't see why not. There's not a whole lot of info/substance in his posts anyway, except for the remark about Ranger's playstyle, which could be equally true or false. Furthermore, he only hop-voted between RC (for personal reasons), Ranger & Wednesday, which looks like he's going along with the current.

VOTE: Jackal

So it has the same probability to the form which has 2 scums! so what ...

Nothing. Just like to poke you in the nose every now and then for fun.

[Almost50]

It's obvious that RC thinks (correctly it would seem) that he can play you and is desperate to derail the Wednesday wagon. Why do you think that is? What kind of person tries to derail one wagon while not pushing another? Scum, that's who.

pedit: seems that scum have daytalk with the sudden concerted effort to attack me.

That's correct. RC is also with us, so that makes 4 of us, all in one faction. Who else?

It seems to me that Your Majesty is possessed with the thought that Wednesday IS scum. Everybody who appears to be "slightly not interested" becomes her partner.

You also seem paranoid when someone points out something you said they didn't like. I did specify an obvious contradiction in your logic there regarding Starbuck, and you didn't even care to explain. Instead, you shrugged it off as "pre-arranged scum talk" (I hold the right for labeling it thus. You didn't use this phrasing.)

[Almost50]

Yep...unless Wednesday's scum and scum have daytalk, or are just good at following each other's lead. This last page or two is really obvious. The sad thing is that Frozen fell for it. Radiant knows how to push her buttons.

The problem here is you cannot possibly expect any given scum faction started off with 4 or 5 players. It maybe possible, but very very improbable, given the cards were drawn at random.

Now go and vote for Jackal like a good little goon...

Actually switching Jackal for Wednesday doesn't look like a bad idea, IMHO. I'd very much rather lose to scum talent than town inactivity. Jackal could still come out and defend himself. If he doesn't then it's equally a good lynch as Starbuck's

[Almost50]

@Persivul: I think you're missing my point here. Let me retry this: There is a VERY VERY SMALL CHANCE that we are all scum, and even a smaller chance (almost no chance) we're all of the same faction.

Hypothetically speaking, if I'm scum partners with Wednesday, how do you explain RC, Ranger & Smither's actions? Even if one of them is a 3rd member of the same faction, how do you explain the other 2? Another faction?? But why would ANOTHER FACTION derail the lynch? And how do they even know her alignment already??

You see, this is why I'm calling you "possessed" .. you're haunted with on fixed idea (that may or may not be true) about one person, and judging everybody based on your "unverified" assumption, yet forgetting the results you come to are most illogical to begin with.

ANY given one of us could be scum, granted. Any pair could be of the same faction, I'll accept that. Three is unlikely, four is stretching it, and five strips you from any credibility.

Now your attitude could be interpreted as one of two things: a very misguided town player who is eager to win that they're overlooking some basics, OR a very GOOD scum player who wants to appear very actively scumhunting that even if their target flips green they'd still be on the clear.

I honestly don't know what to think of you between the two though, which is why I'm not voting you.

[Almost50]

I'd actually prefer them to wagon me rather than Jackal or Starbuck.

Although this looks very "townish" at face value, I can't help but wonder how you're so confident they're both town?

[Almost50]

Everyone what do you Like to play ?

Town
3Party
Scum

I know its not alignment indicative. Just asking to organize my thoughts about your behavioral overall ...

And please write sentense about why you like that.

thx

Well, you know me well enough. I'd ALWAYS go for town if given a choice. In fact, I'd prefer town with not much responsibilities (decision making), so passive powers are my preferred choice. (I refer you to the one and only game where I did have a choice before, when I discarded both Town Tracker & Town Vig in favour of 1-shot-PGO.)

[Almost50]

Now go back to my soft claim post (where I didn't really specify my role, but rather hinted it vaguely)

[Almost50]

I think I had better explain a little to all, but since not everybody would be interested I'm putting this in a spoiler:

In my last 2 games OFF MS I was assigned the role of the Town Cop. The first one was a flavoured Day Cop, and my first investigation target was the SK. HOWEVER, I misunderstood the "image" I received for a clue, and though they were clear. My second check was on FA's mason partner; a member of the crew (town) who got culted overnight. I received 2 clues on him, and -again- missed the 2nd clue's meaning. My 3rd target would've been the cult recruiter, except the culted player started pushing on someone I was 90% sure they were town, so I checked them instead to verify my read beyond doubt.

The other game was a beginner's game modded by FA, and I rolled COP. My first investigation outed one of the 2 mafia members. However, upon RC'ing I made a very poor analysis of the other one, and it didn't help that they responded as if they were acknowledging the accusation rather than defending themselves properly. I got NK'd so never got to investigate someone else, and the town sheeped me and eventually lost.

So, a very good nose for scum I might have, but a very poor "thinker" I might be. This is why I prefer not to be the town leader, and don't like being the one they expect to come up with conclusive results. I have yet to play doctor though, so -maybe- I will be good at it as well. At least that one doesn't involve composing cases and I won't need to hard RC to convince anybody of anything.

*Crossing fingers I did it right, bc the preview shows a big blank space*

[Almost50]

Shoot! How do you guys do real spoilers???

[Almost50]

@MOD: Extremely sorry. I did click the spoiler tab

[ / spoiler] but it resulted in hidden text (can only be read if highlighted), which wasn't my intention.

Please feel free to amend or delete post as you see fit.

[Almost50]

OH. TY.

So, was your question directed at just me or did everybody decide it was time to take a break?

[Almost50]

And now I'm wondering where Wednesday went!!
Could it be she simply assumed she was getting lynched and left w/o double checking??

[Almost50]

@lane: You quote the post where I CAPITALIZED the reason why I ASSUMED she was some sort of a day investigator, and yet you fail to see that part??

OK, how about:

I could add both RC & Wednesday as weak town reads, but that would be based on "something" in particular, and -also- on an unverified assumption, so I'm keeping them both on the null list for now.

And when she said she wasn't I responded with:

OK... too much info at once, but here is my response:

@Wednesday: PI only investigates CULT. So, maybe she's not cult and there's a very small chance she could be a WW. What about Mafia? How would you clear her from being Mafia??

Also, I looked up modifiers, and if she was given "Athiest" then she would investigate as NO CULT regardless, so .. ??

All this is assuming your modifier is DAY to begin with. Otherwise, there's nothing you could've investigated either, or am I totally lost?

So, how come you did not complete the ISO?

Besides that, Wednesday was reading ONE person, while Persivul is reading TWO. Now DAY is one modifier, while "DOUBLE-DOWN" is another, and he cannot have possibly received two modifiers simultaneously, so I'm questioning his overall evaluation of everybody, to be honest, not just the these two.

[Almost50]

My only two valid lynches of the day are Jackal and Starbuck; and as I'm assuming the latter would be soon replaced that leaves me stuck with my vote on Jackal (unless something really tragic changes this stance).

[Almost50]

My personal stance is to go for lurkers/inactives bc they're likely to hurt the town more later on while they get almost undetected. Eversince I started playing it was more likely than not: scum was hiding there. (FA will know exactly what I mean as she witnessed literally every game I ever played outside of MS).

The only exception is when someone is screaming scum all over the place, which is not the case here.

I think I'd rather wait on some of our investigators to come up with results on the "top 4 suspects" as seen by the majority of players (if I understand what the majority feels correctly). The top 4 suspects are -in no particular order- Wednesday, Persivul, Almost (that's me) and Ranger. I'm hoping at least two of them will be investigated (by Cop, Tracker, Watcher, etc) so we will either have someone to lynch for the morrow OR 2 definitely cleared and trusted to be town, which will improve our ability to judge the other two.

I currently do not have "definite" scum reads. However, my top town read has now become FA (hey, lady .. if you're scum you certainly are playing it extremely well). The way she's playing makes me read her as 90% town. The other 10% are reserved in case she totally evolved into another being; playing style wise. I don't think she could've done that in just 2-3 weeks from our last game together.

Next up, lane is fairly town. Everybody else I'm hoping to get a better read on judging by the flip of Jackal, and/or the night action results.

[Almost50]

cause those 2 have extremely minimal content.

EXACTLY. Scum tend to contribute minimal content so as not to get caught outright lying. The more you talk the more prone to make some slips (even if you're town). However, town do not "expect" to make mistakes, so they go ahead and -sometimes- appear scummy for it. Scum -on the other hand- try to keep it quiet as much as possible to avoid being in the spotlight.

[Almost50]

Why are you on Jackal yourself?

Do an ISO of him and see for yourself. This is his total product of 78 hours (of the 96 hours day)

[Almost50]

But who else do you have for suspects? You didn't answer that part

Oh, but I did. I said I don't have definite scum reads at this time. It's all either/or. You see, for example .. the Persivul vs Wednesday + Ranger thing. If Persivul is town then Wednesday & Ranger become scum reads. If Wednesday is town that brings Ranger forward as town with Persivul demoted to scum read. Right now all 3 hold the same degree of "uncertain" in my view. I don't know which of them to take over the other, and while the reading eachother as town still doesn't bode well with me, the same applies to Persivul's "wholesale" of scum grouping, and especially so when I know my own alignment. However, you don't have to take my word for it. Still, does it seem logical to group 4-5 different players into the same faction?

[Almost50]

What reads would you get from a jackal town flip? Scum flip?

If he flips town then I maybe inclined to adopt you logic on RC/Ranger.
If he flips scum then YOU, my friend become highly suspect for defending him.

[Almost50]

if he flips town we can loose the game immediately ...

Not unless all 5-6 scum belong to the same faction. You're forgetting this is a multi-party game, so the win condition for every faction is to eliminate all other factions (as opposed to mafia vs town games when the mafia wins when they are more or equal to the number of town players remaining). Hell, even then if we have a vig, a PGO .. etc we still have a chance to come out on top through the night.

[Almost50]

The problem with a multiball scenario is, why wasn't Wednesday hammered?

This could be anybody's guess. Maybe the members of the two factions decided to go separate ways. Let me rephrase this: Maybe faction 1 members were already piled up on one lynch, with the other faction voting the other way. The town is divided and distracted, thus no majority reached on either.

OR, maybe one faction decided not to jump the wagon on either bc they didn't know if they will flip "other scum" or town, and didn't want to be on them in case they did flip town.

Yet again, maybe they're waiting for night action just like I am (oh, my. This one looks bad on me, but I'll say it anyway) in hopes they'd get some leads on who the other faction members are so as to minimize the chances of their own faction being killed.

Let's note that only mafia & WWs have factional kills. Cult -on the other hand- can die if they target scum, so they do need to preserve every town PR until they know who the scum are.

Now, if only 7 town players are in play, we maybe up against 2 mafia, 2 WW, 1 cult & 1 SK for all I know (THIS IS MERE SPECULATION, so don't take my word for it).

In sum, there is one reason or another why we don't seem to agree on one lynch target.

[Almost50]

That's a hammer, I believe. We're in twilight now.

[Almost50]

I have to say I'm not happy with the speed RC jumped on to hammer. He was resisting a Wednesday lynch almost all day, yet when we started speculating about the reason why she wasn't hammered he jumped right on for it.

davesaz is suspicious to a much lesser degree. In fact, RC's speed hammer made it look suspicious. It would've looked pretty normal to me if there was a little gap between the two, or if RC let FA place the hammer instead.

Just had to say it now in case I don't make it through the night.

[Almost50]

@RC: The more I look at it the scummier it looks. We were in the middle of something here... trying to get a look at the greater picture, and FA already stated intent to hammer, so why did you even interfere???

[Almost50]

The only thing I'm good at is generally looking town and pretty much outing myself as scum immediately.

You're doing the first part pretty well, thus far. Now, if you're scum please show me how you do the second part.

[Almost50]

Could you please double check? This is the previous vote count

. Since then:

BlackStar voted RC in #623
then switched back to Wednesday in 632
Wednesday voted Pervisul in 691
davesaz put Wednesday @ L-1 in 732
before RC hammered in 736

[Almost50]

@Wednesday: I've added you to my friends (if you don't mind). Yours is a very interesting playing style that I would like to follow (as in keep track of, not adopting it myself though).

[Almost50]

Both "shot"??? Does this mean we have TWO mafia factions + a WW faction? Or did we have a PGO who was targeted by either of them? What other possibilities do we have for the two kills being done by guns? And why no WW night kill if we DO/DID have a WW faction??

(The above is -obviously- new stuff I've just added having seen the night action results and flips. The following I had thought of over night):

Let's start with facts, then move on to deductions, conclusions, assumptions and what not.

Fact #1: Wednesday was a Survivour, with the sole winning condition of preserving her own life.
Fact #2: She had no faction, no secret communications, and no solid info (didn't get to investigate anyone)
Fact #3: Her role was potentially unharmful to town (at least this early). She was neutral at worst.

Conclusion: Wednesday's reads and communications were sincere (regardless of their accuracy). It is true she didn't KNOW FOR A FACT whether someone is town or scum, but she tried to read through the posts and -probably- meta (if applicable).

(more to come)

[Almost50]

Jackal is scum.
Persivul is scum.
They are both still scum.

I have to interrupt my series of posts analyzing everything that happened so far to comment on this:

@Ranger: I personally owe you an apology for not "fully" trusting you yesterday. Yes, I could very much see the link between Starbuck, Jackal and Persivul.

@Persivul: I told you, if Starbuck flips scum YOU are scum for defending them so hard. You also tried your best to relief the pressure off Jackal, and now he's very much a suspect bc of you.

However, I don't see how we have 3 WWs and no WW nightkill. THIS bugs me. I will thus hold back for a few more hours to do some more thinking based on the night action & flips.

[Almost50]

nah it's a redirector. I tried to vig Persival because I thought he was scum, but someone else died. I figure I shot the werewolf seeing as they probably wouldn't shoot themselves.

And you really had to claim outright??

Lady you were already being read town by both Ranger and FA, nobody was going to vote you.

Nevermind.. what's done is done. Let's hope there is someone out there who can protect you.

[Almost50]

@Almost50 I don't buy that at all. Townies should defend their convictions with as much effort as they can since they know their own reads can be trusted to be in line with the goals of the town affiliation. Persivul trying to relieve pressure off Jackal with the stated intention of destabalising a scum counter wagon is inherently protown.

Sorry, but I'm not following. If he was acting pro-town, how come you tried to vig him and came out to tell us that??

P.S. This is NOT pointing a finger at you. I'm just trying to understand your case for/against Persivul.

[Almost50]

Why? With a redirector on the loose it's all good.

How come you're so sure they're town aligned though?

[Almost50]

The only reason you're still alive is I'm town. If I were scum, WHICH I AM NOT, you would have been my NK choice.

Yes, you've seen my scum game. But my town game is no different.

That said, I'm willing to believe Ranger is town.

VOTE: smithereens
Uh, yeah.

Really?! So, you're TOWN, and -to prove it- you're voting the claimed town vig. Makes sense. "Uh, yeah." *Nod*

VOTE: Jackal

[Almost50]

BRB

Btw, it looks like I'm gonna have to do some editing to my initial thoughts (the ones done overnight) to fit the new situation. Either that or post them "as is" then state what I would like to change.

Which option would you prefer?

P.S. Question specifically directed at Ranger, Smithereens & FA. They're the only ones I can trust for now.

[Almost50]

Both IS the 2nd option. *LOL*

[Almost50]

Wait, I'm fucking alive?

Damn right, and you've got some explaining to do. Let's start by what you misinterpreted, shall we?

[Almost50]

@Smithereens: Are your missing the "Ranger & FA already read you as town" part? I mean, I won't claim I had read you as strong town lean yesterday, but by the D1 end it was Ranger, YOU, FA & ME on Jackal, so my read must've changed by the time Wednesday got lynched & flipped.

[Almost50]

OK, 2nd part of my analysis:

-Wednesday was a 3rd party with the potential to be town-friendly.
-So, anyone who voted her is NULL (bc town don't know, while scum will know she's not with them)
-Those who didn't vote her are leaning town, bc scum will know she's not one of them.
-Starbuck is an exception. Early parked vote (RVS) could mean they're town or mean they knew dave was not scum.

[Almost50]

Now, DISREGARDING the voting pattern on/off Wednesday; I would say I read FA, Lane, Persivul &
Flubber as town now. However, if I do take the votes into account this will single out FA as my strongest town read and put the other 3 slightly below her (because they all voted on one direction, and consecutively after eachother (admittedly with some time span in between).

If the three of them are scum it would really suck and I think we're very likely to lose the game, because I'm not the only one reading them as town. Gut feeling though tells me they're not, so I will stay off them.

From those NOT on the Wednesday wagon, the other 2 on Jackal are likely town.
========================================================================
Above the line is the old text. Now what I would like to change is this:

I'm downgrading Pervisul to a scum read based on his defense of Starbuck. Flubber is stil leaning town, but NOT as strong.

My top town reads are FA, Ranger & Smithereens (in no particular order, as I feel these 3 are almost confirmed town players).

[Almost50]

FA scum kills me night 1 in 100% of games.

[Almost50]

The fact that she wasn't on the scum team means she is a scum target when it comes to the lynch. Everyone who mislynches is suspect by default. Those who do it opportunistically, which is what we saw yesterday, are even more so. The scum lynched what they thought was another townie. They were looking for that mislynch and for all thoughts and intents they got it.

Agreed, but we already nailed 2 non-town players (admittedly Wednesday was not "scum" but she didn't count as "town" either, and we're told we have at least 7 town-aligned players at the start of the game).

This means we have a maximum of 4 other scum/3rd party, and there are 6 alive from the wagon on Wednesday, so at least 2 town players there.

HOWEVER, I'm reading Flubber, BlackStar & davesaz as town leans currently, so either there are only 3 scum there or my reads on one of the 3 is not spot on.

[Almost50]

3rd part of my overnight analysis:

Our best scenario option is we have 4 more anti-town players. 3 of one faction + 1 third party (SK).

A slightly worse scenario is we HAD 4 anti-town, now 5 (3 mafia/WW + 2 cult).

Worst scenario: we have 6 more anti town now (2 mafia/WW, 1 WW/mafia, 2 cult & 1 SK)

The worst part is we already lynched the PI. I do realize there are two PI cards, but what are the chances both were drawn and both were chosen? This means if we have cult in play it will be up to us to out them w/o relying on investigations.
===================================================================================
I would like to drop the SK from all the above, as we -obviously- had no SK night action... unless -of course- we have a town RB, or someone immune like a Retired Marine.. OK, let's say it's still possible but highly improbable.

And -of course- the numbers are inaccurate, since everything was based on 12 players alive (as I didn't know who would be NK'd or what their flip will be).

[Almost50]

4th (final) part:

If we DO have a cult leader, they MUST have joined the wagon on Wednesday AFTER she claimed.

This means: Jackal is now the prime suspect (of being precisely Cult Leader)

BlackStar joined in later on, but he was actually there earlier. FA joined BEFORE Jackal but jumped off the wagon. dave joined in late, and RC hammered (which now makes him 2nd suspect in line for “precisely Cult Leader”)

[Almost50]

this suggests warewolf kill got blocked because we had no dismembered people.

this suggests we have no sk. this is so odd to have 2 kill blocks in 1 day.

this suggests we have a mafia group and another gunman which I need reread to make sure of all possibilities

1- OR we had only 1 WW and they got killed thus their kill didn't go through (someone more experienced in modding should respond to this: Would the kill have still gone through if the killer is killed themselves??)

2- Yes, I'm leaning that way.

3- I highly suspect there are two groups of the same faction, since this is NOT a tailored game. I mean, how would the mod decide which player to place in group 1 & which belong to group 2 if they all opted for "mafia"??

I think the idea was to group all players of the same alignment in the same group, unless their modifier suggested otherwise.

Besides, we already have Smithereens claim, so that's where the other shot came from. Or do you have reason to doubt her claim?

[Almost50]

Sure, since anyone with half a brain can figure it out anyway.

I'm a

Town Aligned

Rolecop.

That's great. That's just great. TWO hard claims in the first 12 hours of the new day. *Sigh*

At least this one serves to save us some precious time, if we choose to believe it. Ranger?

Now, please.. pretty please: Nobody else RC unless you have a POSITIVE result, or are at L -1.

[Almost50]

Well I'm sure about the role cop thing based on how you cleared me now ... so I might assume your town as well

Nice. So we need to lynch Persy then (my favourite pick tbh, bc I did promise him that if Starbuck flipped scum).

@FA: See? I'm not pressuring you to do some extra explanation. I take what you say and try to work it out on my own. If I believe you're town there's no need for me to force you to expose too much info if there's no need for it

@All: The above is something about her play with me in general. FA sometimes literally squeezes me for info/explanation until she forces me to roleclaim. She refuses to take any hints until it's too late. Just thought I'd explain the remark directed at here specifically.

Oh, and based on your quoted post:

UNVOTE: Jackal

[Almost50]

If everyone is aging "I think FA is town" it wouldn't be hard for anyone to say that they investigated you and you're probably town. It doesn't really prove anything. If he is consistently right about people's roles then he'll be the confirmed cop.

I very much see the point here. Why would an investigator choose to pick FA for their 1st night action anyway? She was being read as town by the majority, and EVEN IF they suspected her themselves it would've been very hard to push a lynch on her if they got a positive result w/o lynching them first. I -for one- would've refused to believe him if he said she was scum.

Let me try to think of the possibilities of each one's alignment for some time, and maybe I will be able to find something.

The thing is during D1 I had more suspects than the maximum possible number of scum.

During the night (that's after the Wednesday flip & before the night action results), I had just about narrowed it down considerably.

Upon the night action flips though, and coupled with the role claims I have less lynch targets than the "assumed" number of scum left in game.

My lynch candidates WERE: Persivul, Jackalk & RC (in that order). Persivul is still arguing well enough (not cornered), Jackal RC'd and is leaning town, and RC is very townish according to FA.

This leaves me confused and undecided, so I DO need more time to think it over.

[Almost50]

He never said he investigated me and he found I'm town. he said he knows my role and because of a clue in last night kills He believes I'm town.

and I as someone who knows my role , I know what is he talking about.

Could you give a clearer hint, or would that be more helpful to scum?? If it would be, then keep it. If it doesn't matter, I want to understand so that I can get a better read on him myself.

[Almost50]

No RC is likely town. at least for now.

Are we playing follow the cop? I need either solid info or -at least- some convincing logic. There's not much room for gut feelings in D2. If you KNOW RC to be town let me know so that I can concentrate on less people to decide my next vote. So far I'm back to "FA, Ranger & Smithereens are off the list" but still open for anyone else's lynch PROVIDED A GOOD CASE is introduced against them.

[Almost50]

tree stump and restless soul I guess

Both very much luynchable. Tree Stump could be lynched UNLESS they do claim and get confirmed before it. Restless soul is someone who does get lynched but is still able to vote after having died.

However, there are two modifiers there that could be associated with any role/alignment (except if it results in them becoming unkillable at all): Unlunchable & 1-shot unlynchable.

[Almost50]

thats make smith claim believable , But her role is not alignment indicative -think about mafia vig - ...

This kind of puts her head-to-head with Persivul. I mean, she admitted targeting him, so if she's mafia he can't be, if he is mafia she can't be. There's also the possibility of her being mafia & him being WW. This is even more confusing stuff.

[Almost50]

@Persivul: Check post #720. See if it rings a bell.

[Almost50]

I request protection tonight.

Yes. You, Smithereens, Jackal, and God knows who else. God help the doctor and the redirector.

[Almost50]

@Blackstar: I honestly got the two mixed up in my head, as well as in my text remarks on my PC. You see, I put all 3 (Persivul, Starcuck & Jackal) as possibly belonging to the same faction. That was based on Persivul's refusal to even consider either of them over Wednesday, and Persivuls post #626. If you recall I did mention I think one of the 4 modifiers claimed early on D1 was a fake to hide real scum, and if you look at my most recent read I stated 3 of them were

the

3 I would not consider for a lynch today, so this leaves us with Persivul false claiming Hirsute to hide he is really a WW, which does coincide with Starbuck flipping as WW herself.

[Almost50]

This is also why I prefer a Persivul lynch over Jackal. Persivul is the "middleman" between the two. There's no obvious direct link between Starbuck & Jackal. The only link between the two is that Persivul defended them both hard enough he preferred a push on himself over either of them.

[Almost50]

Are you a fucking idiot

Well, I sincerely do not appreciate this kind of phrasing. I know it's fine with everybody else, but I personally do not like to use it or for it to be used when addressing me. THANK YOU.

The fact that you're voting Jackal now lifts them up a notch, but doesn't affect you. I said it was YOU who linked Jackal & Starbuck and that there was no direct link between the two, The fact Starbuck flipped WW condemns YOU in a direct way, not Jackal. Now with you voting him he looks a tad better, while you're link with Starbuck stays intact.

The thing is I confess to being EXTREMELY confused by the roleclaims of the day not being alignment conclusive. I thus cannot rely on them to decide, and would still have to rely on other post content, interaction with other players and voting patterns. This is PRECISELY why I picked this role I'm in, btw. I needed to work on my analysis and case composition as opposed to getting info from investigations and roleclaiming. As I said I do NOT have investigative/informative/protective abilities at all, and no active killing abilities either. I specifically locked myself up to force me to THINK and get to conclusions w/o relying on info coming from the mod, and it's a bit confusing but I'm enjoying the ride to be honest, and if I'm still making mistakes I'm content with learning from them.

[Almost50]

@Almost50: what do you think about the man on the grassy knoll?

Huh???

[Almost50]

@Almost50: what do you think about the man on the grassy knoll?

Huh???

Thought you might be old enough to get the reference. It's from JFK assassination conspiracy theories. I'm saying that your theories are wild and unsupported. And while we're on that subject...where's that case showing my hard defense of Starbuck?

Yes, I'm 48 y.o. (hence my handle), but I'm not American. In fact, English is NOT my mother language.

[Almost50]

If it interests Persivul then I'm tempted to sheep this

VOTE: davasez

See? Only 2 posts apart, and I even misspelled his name just like FA did. How's that for acting scummy, Persivul??

P-edit: COME ON, FA. You ALWAYS mess my fun, even when you're completely unaware of my next move? What are? A mind reader? Or are you using my "super mechanical spy fly" invention against me??

Actually, I'll stay on davesaz for a while. I have a very weak read on him either way. I highly suspect he's a WW though bc Starbuck parked her RSV vote on him before she disappeared. Then again it could've been an RSV vote meant for distancing, and I'm not quite sure how experienced Starbuck is, but I read somewhere on the wiki (or maybe in my previous beginners game??) that new scum tend to vote their own partners in RSV.

Do I have a strong case on him? Not really, just that he did join the Wednesday wagon after she claimed and stayed on it.

[Almost50]

Remember in MB that scum teams hunt. Jackal as WW could rolecop FA and be telling his teammate (if there is another) that FA is likely town so said teammate (if any) can move on to other candidates for mafia.

Why not do it in their private chat forum and keep it to themselves??

[Almost50]

*ROTFL* Like you have not already?? *Sigh*

[Almost50]

So, it's me, Blackstar & Flubber who have yet to claim their role and/or modifier.

[Almost50]

Radiant Cowbells - Discard Bodyguard, no modifier claim, claim can't be lynched

But that IS the modifier, my friend.

[Almost50]

Baka when did I claimed my role?!

You didn't "hard" claim, but your so-called "soft" claim is hard enough if I understand it correct.

[Almost50]

I'm calling it a night, but want to leave something here for the rest of you to ponder on, and I urge you to read more than once and think it over very very hard before you make a decision. It directly relates to this:

Wait, I'm fucking alive?

And this:

4th (final) part:

If we DO have a cult leader, they MUST have joined the wagon on Wednesday AFTER she claimed.

This means: Jackal is now the prime suspect (of being precisely Cult Leader)

BlackStar joined in later on, but he was actually there earlier. FA joined BEFORE Jackal but jumped off the wagon. dave joined in late, and RC hammered (which now makes him 2nd suspect in line for “precisely Cult Leader”)

If RC is the unlynchable cult recruiter then he wasn't positively sure his night target was town, so he gambled and was happy he didn't hit on scum, which explains his excitement.

Now who do you think his target was?? Think.. THINK... I say he recruited FA, which is why they've become so certain of each other on D2.

This also explains a few other things he said, like this:

FA is confirmed town as of right now.

FA scum kills me night 1 in 100% of games.

proxy vote to FA

While this is him trying to out Jackal's alignment to see if he can recruit him next:

Can you just full claim? Scum already basically know what oyu are.

Now somebody think how are we going to handle this. I mean, RC was probably telling the truth about him being unlynchable, so we do need to night vig him, but -for now- we need to verify this theory/assumption through the lynch of my strongest town read of D1 (and indeed she "was" town on D1).

UNVOTE: davaez
VOTE: FA

If she's not culted then he's not cult, and

I'm happy to be the next lynch in-line for my mistake

. If she IS cult though, the vig needs to target RC at night under the protection of the redirector (let the town work as a group FOR ONCE).

P.S. Cult IS potentially much dangerous/harmful to town than mafia. If they grow big enough they'd be virtually invincible, so we need to stop their spread if they do exist.

Funny what suddenly hits you when you're sleepy and have already decided to retire for the night.

*Me signs off feeling like I've just won the lottery*

[Almost50]

Govern: Frozen Angel

!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why would you do this when there was only ONE vote on her, and nobody even seemed to be interested?
Also, you do realize you are now very much lynchable yourself, right? Well, good luck with that.

However, I don't think it likely AT ALL for the cult recruiter to leave themselves out in the open to protect someone they recruited, and -tbh- I have never even considered the chances of it being the other way around, bc I was inspecting HIS case and I fully believed she was town in D1.

For now; my "story" as RC refers to it proves to be an early sleep bad dream. I'll have to do a whole lot of thinking about everyone once again.

[Almost50]

I'm not sure what to make of Dave. But the fact that he is still alive does suggest the second kill is not a vig

Why does dave making it through the night suggest it was no vig action. Please fill me in, cuz -right now- I feel like I've been dropped into a land of a tribe where I don't speak their language and they don't speak mine. I'm totally lost, in other words.

[Almost50]

Found this in the wiki:

A Governor is a role that can stop a lynch.

So, She is now unvotable (we can't vote her) and she can prevent his lynch.

[Almost50]

What a perfect way to back out of an unlynchable claim

But he IS still unlynchable, in a way. FA can prevent the lynch of the lynch target in twilight (before they flip). I'm looking at it and wondering if the cult have already won this game by this move.

I mean,

I'm not positive of anything

, but let's consider the slim chance of me being right about him and her. Now they're both out of reach, AND he will be targeting someone new at night to recruit them. Anyone they believe to be scum they will be pushing on them to get lynched, anyone who they believe is town could be the new recruit.

I still say we vig RC at night and see how he flips.

The one bit of good news here is cult will help us out other scum, so let's see what the cat drags in for now.

[Almost50]

Truth or Dare : Are you a WW ? lol

STOP IT!!!

[Almost50]

Governor role, as I understood it, allowed you to overthrow the lynch from one person to another.

FINALLY; an explanation to something that has been distracting me ever since it was mentioned.

So, you hammered Wednesday thinking you could redirect the lynch to Jackal???

At least now your hammer makes sense, and so does the "relax" comment directed at me afterwards.

[Almost50]

I'm not positive of anything, but let's consider the slim chance of me being right about him and her.

Does this sound like I'm talking about it "as if it's established fact"????

[Almost50]

I simply started one line of thinking and have yet to see anything that either confirms or nullifies it. EVERYTHING that happened could very well be interpreted both ways from where I'm standing now.

[Almost50]

WAIT. Governor is a role not a modifier. This totally rules out my theory. RC is mod-confirmed X-shot Governor. This means RC must've started as TOWN-ALIGNED GOVERNOR. Why would he try to save Wednesday if he was of any other alignment?

@FA: I think I need you to open up and explain every single read you have. Either that or a hard claim is required to explain your "block". You're being a bit weird and obscure in D2, which is very unlike you on D1. It's nothing like the FA I know to threaten people in such a manner as: If you do/don't do this I will destroy you."!!!!!

Firebringer is TOWN VIGILANTE. She cannot be a WW (she has a firearm) and can't be cult (she kills) and can't even be mafia (another kill with a firearm occurred with nobody claiming).

Ranger is a strong Town read. She's been more or less most accurate in her reads thus far and all her actions appear to be town-motivated.

I'm confused by the rest of you, to be totally honest, but leaning town on BlackStar, and totally clueless about the other 4.

@Flubber: What happened, mate? You were one of my strongest town reads on D1. Now I almost can't decide.

Checking back on the discards I can't explain "Vanilla Town". This means Jackal threw away any "basic" role (Not A VT, Not a basic WW and not a Goon). However, it also suggests he threw away the "TOWN" alignment. He maybe a Rolecop alright, but of which alignment??

Flubber discarded Treestump. Basically nobody wants to be a Treestump (@FA: except Shepperd ) but ESPECIALLY SO when they can't guarantee there's another player of the same alignment in play. He could've opted for better powers and could be of any given alignment.

Persivul's a mystery to me. Threw away FBI Agent, claims Tracker, states he Tracked dave visiting Jackal. Tracker is a role that could have Town, mafia or WW alignment.

davesaz picked cop over double voter. This is also very confusing to come from any given alignment. Personally I don't know if I would have thrown a role that is seldom in-play for one that I could be assigned in a basic beginners game. Cop is so common I would probable NOT hand pick myself if I ever got a choice, and will only play if it was virtually assigned to me without me having the choice to pick. *Shrug*

Suffice it to say I have one confirmed identity in Firebringer, and -pending FA's response(s)- maybe a few others, but I have not enough strong scum reads to actually park my vote on someone for the rest of the day.

[Almost50]

accept my read and move on

I'm leaning towards it, but it's NOT like I'm sheeping you. If you look at my most recent reads an analysis you'd see I already agree with you on most of them. If your reads and mine are that close then I think we're thinking on the same track, so...

I just want to make ABSOLUTELY SURE there's no cult in this game, bc that is the one thing that if we ignore any longer will become literally invincible.

[Almost50]

OK.. so FA, RC & Firebringer are now confirmed town on my list.

NOTE: When I say CONFIRMED I mean ANALYTICALLY. I've connected the dots and inspected possibilities and have come to the conclusion it could not be any other way. (bar the one possibility I'm a total moron who can't see the obvious and couldn't hit on scum if Marlon Brando, Al Pacino & Andy Garcia all swore to it).

[Almost50]

RC Ranger

Starbuck

!!!

Blackstar lynch pool for today

Who??? I can't help but agree to lynching Starbuck in particular, as -somehow- I believe -beyond any shadow of doubt- he's a WW lurker.

[Almost50]

@Persivul: I wish you had voted someone I had a stronger read on, so that I could vote you with comfort.

Right now I'm flirting with possibilities. What if Persivul is a WW Tracker & davesaz is a mafia Cop? My personal remarks overnight indicated Persy could very well be a WW, and nothing -thus far- today proved otherwise, even when we consider all the mass claiming and assuming all claimed night action to be true.

dave I had not much doubted, but didn't have much FOR him either, and as the list of suspects is shrinking I have to re-evaluate my reads on those who are not yet confirmed in my eyes.

Persy & dave are NOT of the same alignment, that's for sure. Not only bc Persy tracked dave, but also bc I had a "NOT WW" remark next to dave's name (which I don't remember if it was there in D1; in which case I don't even remember the reason for it, OR was added upon the flip of the nightkills, and is bc of Starbuck parking her vote on dave before she left).

P-edit:
@BlackStar: It is NOT in the town's best interest to hold any information or conclusions you may have reached at this stage. One piece of info could very well make all the difference, so please do share.

@FA: FB's CONFIRMED town in my book. Read my analysis of that spot:
1- Kills by gun = NOT WW, NOT SK
2- Kills = NOT cult
3- Another kill by gunshot occurred, so FB's not mafia either

[Almost50]

@BlackStar: Explain more, please. I have a very poor (next to null) idea about the mechanics in which night actions would resolve. You switched Persy for RC, that's easy to get. Now how does another Busdriver redirect action meant for Persy to droog and not to RC? Why would their switch on Persy work before yours??

[Almost50]

@Persy: I'd appreciate your input as well. ASSUMING BlackStar's statements all to be true, how would TWO BusDrivers targeting the same person resolve?

[Almost50]

I'm saying that someone else targeted RC and that's why Starbuck died instead of him.

Same question stands: Why would ONE switch take precedence OVER ANOTHER?

[Almost50]

OK, what's your modifier then?? Maybe that would help.

[Almost50]

At this time I do believe a massclaim should help:

I'm a Town BusDriver with DOUBLE-DOWN Modifier. My 1st switch was Persy for Starbuck (which is why I believe Smithereens claim, obviously). My second switch was myself for BlackStar.

Spoiler: Reasons

Reason for 1st switch: I wasn't sure of Persy's alignment (still am not) but thought I'd protect him IF he was town. It didn't seem logical to protect him over someone more likely to be town, and as I had no problem of losing Starbuck anyway it seemed like the best move. A nightkill targeted at Persy would serve to rid us of a totally unknown, but -more importantly- would prove he is not <insert alignment here> depending on the method of the NK. Unfortunately; Town Vig never occurred to me.

Reason for 2nd switch: I didn't want to get NK'd myself. I picked someone who was being more quiet than not, so they probably would not have been targeted by any killer anyway, so I was safe. I also thought BS was less likely to be scum than -say- Starbuck or Jackal so I picked him over them both (in case I was investigated myself. I would not want to escape a NK only to find myself lynched based on evidence I personally faked on me). It was close between him and dave, but I saw BS to be a little bit more townier than dave.

[Almost50]

Now let's see .. this has become VERY messy. I can't even decide whom to protect, whom to believe, and whom to suspect. My head is spinning faster than a Ferrari engine.

[Almost50]

@Persivul: You see now why I needed someone in the know to explain? I DID switch you for Starbuck directly, and Smither said she targeted you but StarBuck died instead. HOLY "SHIP"! How DID she know it was StarBuck and NOT lane?????? Unless -of course- FA is spot on and Smither knew who the faction kill was targeted at!!!!

[Almost50]

nah it's a redirector. I tried to vig Persival because I thought he was scum, but someone else died. I figure I shot the werewolf seeing as they probably wouldn't shoot themselves.

Or maybe she didn't. Aaaaaargh

[Almost50]

I'm asking about the unnumbered cards.

Can I ask the same of you?

[Almost50]

I am a town 1-shot gladiator

Glad to know I'm not the only nutty person who opts for most uncommon roles.

[Almost50]

Below that, you got three numbered combinations.

The number of combinations is dependent on the actual 3 cards you get. For example:
I you receive

1- Werewolf Bus Driver
2- Hider
3- Vanilla Cop

there are FIVE possible combinations:

1- Werewolf Hider (that's 1st alignment + 2nd role)
2. Werewolf Vanilla Cop (that's 1st alignment + 3rd role)
3. Town Bus Driver (that's 1st role + 2nd & 3rd alignment)
4. Town Vanilla Cop (that's 2nd alignment + 3rd role)
5. Town Hider (that's 2nd role + 3rd alignment)

However, you discarded FBI Agent, which is town aligned, and if you got only 3 possible combinations then you must've rolled 3 TOWN-ALIGNED CARDS. (which you did)

Persivul is now strong town lean.

[Almost50]

Instalynch FA tomorrow if that's the case.

I'm not following. What exactly are you saying & WHY?

[Almost50]

Unless Kraeg is willing to explain how it works; I'm trying to figure it out on my own.

If we're both telling the truth (myself & BS) there are two or 3 possibilities:

1- His switch resolved first: That put Persy in RC slot. RC is in Persy slot. Now mine switched Persy's slot (which is really RC now) in SB's slot and brought SB to Persy's slot. The protection was applied to RC's slot & the vig directed at the Persy slot. This means FA actually protected Persy, and the vig shot StarBuck.

2- MY switch resolved first: Persy is in SB slot and SB is in Persy's slot. Now BS switched the slots of Persy & RC, so RC is now in Persy's slot in Persy's slot & SB is in RC's slot. FA would then heal STARBUCK (who is dead) and the vig would kill RC (who is alive)

3- Both resolve simultaneously; which redirects all action on Persy to BOTH RC AND StarBuck. the vig shoots BOTH, but then all action on either of then is redirected to Persy as well, so RC should've been dead as well.

4- Redirection fails. Nobody gets switched, so PERCY should've been dead.

CONCLUSION: IF we're both telling the truth then his action precedes mine. Why? I have NO IDEA.

Now considering I'm lying and he's telling the truth: RC should've been shot and FA actually healed Persy. But Rc is still alive and StarBuck got shot! Now who would shoot an inactive on N1??? (But don't let this last remark blind you from the fact RC should've been dead, but he's not).

Finally; considering I'm telling the truth and he's lying: Persy switch for SB went fine, vig shot at Persy was redirected to her. End of.

This analysis does NOT take into account any WW action. It just explains why the possibilities of the vig action in light of the Bus Driver claims.

FINAL CONCLUSION: I'm telling the truth for sure. HOWEVER, there IS a chance BS is too, IF HIS ACTION TAKES PRECEDENCE OVER MINE FOR ANY GIVEN REASON.

[Almost50]

So, Persy was targetted by both WWs AND the vig! You're most popular it seems, Persy.

[Almost50]

@baka no he wasn't ww targeted RC with me that made him both kill target and healed

Oh, yes. Your protection was applied to Persy in fact though as he's the one who ended up in RC's slot.

But do you get confirmation of your successful protection in this game?? How do we know there was a WW attack on that slot?? The lack of a NK by WWs could mean one of a few things; INCLUDING an attack was made on the RC slot. It could've been directed on a "Retired Werewolf Hunter" (yes, I do realize nobody claimed that. I'm just listing all possibilities), or it could very well mean we had only one WW in Starbuck/droog who did not submit a night action, or it could've been directed at the Persivul slot and -for some reason- WW kills on WWs don't resolve/occur in this game. This last possibility applies to both action executed by another WW, or submitted by the lone WW slot (if droog did submit a night action).

Well, those are the ones I could think of, but there might be one or two more I've missed.

[Almost50]

can literally every investigative in the game be on FA tonight.

and I know that i'm probably dead tonight so the fuck!

You're both forgetting I'm a Bus Driver with DOUBLE ACTION, not to mention the possibility of another Bus Driver in-play. Do you think I will leave FA as a sitting duck for anyone to shoot when I've concluded that she is CONFIRMED TOWN??

[Almost50]

still doesn't change the fact that my role is town doc

I don't doubt it now. I'm, trying to find explanations and draw out conclusions though. If you DID get confirmation it would've ruled out the possibility of RC being a WW completely (bc his slot was attacked by WWs). The fact that you didn't'don't get a confirmation note brings back RC on the table.

You see, you earlier hints lead me to believe you were a SEER. I had excluded the possibility of RC being a WW altogether. However, your "information" was not really "information" per se, but rather a conclusion based on reasonable facts, yet not 100% conclusive (and obviously it turned out to be the little %age of you being wrong is back in play). It is MUCH as the mistake I made when I was PGO in the Greater Idea Mafia we played together before (funny enough it was modded by none other than Kraeg)

[Almost50]

FA is very far from confirmed town.

Let's inspect this statement analytically, shall we?

1-

FA is MAFIA/WW/3rd party killing role

: According to YOU she would've NK'd YOU. The fact that YOU (that's assuming BS is lying) AND Persivul (that's assuming BS is telling the truth) are both still alive tells us she didn't target your slot with a NK.

2-

FA is cult

: You & I are not culted, she definitely isn't cult.

3-

FA is a 3rd party non-killing role

: Not applicable. She discarded Survivour.

So, you see.. unless YOU are culted, I don't see how she is scum. Then again if you were culted you would not invite all investigative roles to inspect her and out her.

CONCLUSION: Based on YOUR OWN STATEMENTS; FA

CANNOT

be anything anti-town.

So, IF YOU'RE TOWN then PLEASE STOP messing with our minds, as the game is already super-confusing as it is and we don't need more confusion/distraction tossed in.

[Almost50]

Also consider the possibility of a gambit. Say FA is a WW doc. They forego a kill N1 to cement her as a town doc. If Jackal's in on it, the supposed rolecop investigation is a nice touch.

That wouldn't be anything like the FA I know. If she's scum rest assured she will get her NK action every night.

[Almost50]

And besides, you don't skip a night action on N1. It is scum's BEST chance to get rid of someone not from their own faction w/o getting caught, and even more so when she was the top town read collectively (no one had her even remotely near the bottom by the end of D1)

[Almost50]

Just as FA stated in the quote. BlackStar switched Persy & RC. I switched Persy & Starbuck, and -also- switched myself & BlackStar

[Almost50]

Yes I did. I have a double-down modifier

[Almost50]

If someone killed me where would it go?

We've been through this, mate. Any action targeted at you during N1 landed on Persy. A kill, a roleblock, a protection or an investigation. If somebody placed a voodoo spell on your head, Persy received it.

[Almost50]

VOTE: Jackal

This is though!

OMG!! NOT AGAIN!!!!!!

You KNOW what I'm referring to. Oh, you KNOW very well.

[Almost50]

I'm ok with this plan

I'm NOT!
Why would we want to waste the action of 3 different players to check on one? Tracker better be tracking a suspect. Doctor better be protecting the Tracker or the Coroner. 3 Bussing actions should be enough to confuse the hell out of the mafia.

It's a bit too complicated still, but I'm working on a plan in which ONLY FA will announce her target. That will be the only slot which will not be considered for a bus action (bc it's already protected). The rest of the actions will go unannounced as normal, and we will compare the results in the morning, starting by the least trusted. (This is to know if they are telling the truth, so it will be conclusive for/against them).

[Almost50]

@Prsivul: In THIS setup Gladiator picks at night, not day. "Target a player during the night. If they are alive at daybreak, players may only vote for you or them." (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... Idea_Mafia)

[Almost50]

I'm reluctant to vote now bc I have yet to finish the working plan of the night. I have yet to decide on whom I'm bussing FA with, or the two other people of the 2nd bus action. I feel like I don't need to protect myself, bc bussing is resolved first, so if I die the action will still go through and info will be available for the town anyway. I think FA also needs to decide on her target so that we won't consider them for the bussing tonight. (If they do get bussed, then one of the bus drivers is definitely scum)

[Almost50]

@Jackal: I would very much appreciate it if you claimed both your modifier & your 3 cards for the second draw. You have not responded to either of these two subjects.

@All: I'm doing a quick review/re-read from the start & reviewing ISO when/if needed. We HAVE TO decide on a plan for the night action(s) for some of us that will give our most informative roles the best chances of survival.

Please do NOT lynch anyone for the next 2-3 hours at least. We still have time and we had better know exactly what we're doing NEXT.

[Almost50]

Bus driving a protective is a scum claim

I'm not sure I understand. How does me stating I will make FA untargetable for a night kill sound scummy to you? Or am did I misunderstand your statement?

[Almost50]

Like really. Jackal is cop cleared by a tracker cleared cop, and you still need moonlogic to clear Jackal. That really sinks your credibility.

Shouting down a gut read did what exactly?

You guys keep mentioning the word "clearing" a lot. Well, nobody COMPLETELY cleared anyone through investigation per se.

The Cop only investigates Mafia/No Mafia in this game. The Role Cop reads the passive/active abilities. If you're relying solely on investigation results then you're walking down the wrong alley, and especially so when there are modifiers that can hinder results worthless.

[Almost50]

Upon my re-read of the first 27 pages only one thing stuck out to me:

My first draw was:

Mafia Bus Driver
Mafia Private Investigator
Rolecop

Of which I picked Mafia Rolecop.

Then this:

Everyone what do you Like to play ?

Town
3Party
Scum

I know its not alignment indicative. Just asking to organize my thoughts about your behavioral overall ...

And please write sentense about why you like that.

thx

Town. Preferably VT. Because it fits my style better.

Contraction observed:

He could've easily easily picked TOWN Bus Driver or TOWN Investigator from the first draw

, if he so prefers to be town aligned.

I -kind of- suspect he posted his SECOND draw cards & pick. Also his voting patterns are strange.

[Almost50]

Well, Ranger cannot be a WW for starters (Her push on Starbuck). This leaves her as mafia, town or 3rd party.
Mafia-Ranger already knows who killed lane, and her claim as a coroner would be most ridiculous. So, the way I see it is you track her and verify she indeed visits lane, and that is enough proof of her alignment; I think. I don't see any good reason why mafia/SK would want to be talking to the dead.

[Almost50]

NOOOO!! Bus Driving means switching two slots for each other, so if someone targets one of them with a night action it redirects to the other, but it does not affect action from THEM.

Let me explain: A & B are Bussed. C tries to kill A, and D investigates B. Result: C will actually kill B while D will get the results of A projected on B (which will -of course- make no sense since B is dead). However, if A is a PR and targets E their action will go through unaffected.

I hope I'm not confusing you more. I know I could be .. sometimes.

[Almost50]

Think of it this way: My Bussing does not affect action coming FROM the players, but redirects action performed ON them

[Almost50]

I am going to be settling a lot of debate on FA, by shooting her tongiht

Good for you... if you can find her though

[Almost50]

Probabilities .. probabilities.. most people keep moving up & down on my scale, but the one whom I really find intriguing is RC. This guy can very well say/do something that would put him atop of all then the very next thing he does brings him down to the very bottom. I've had him tied on the most confirmed twice thus far, yet had him as

the

summiest once and in the bottom 3 twice as well.

Persy is now high on the town read list (well done working your way up with some steady play. It seems I'm coming to like you after all).

[Almost50]

I have another issue causing me a big dilemma that most of you don't, which is to anticipate the night kills. If I was mafia I'd want to get rid of Ranger (assuming she's not) bc her results could bring me down. I'd also be interested in killing the Cop (if he's a town cop) if I was mafia, but not if I was a WW. So, Ranger & dave are possible mafia targets.

Now FA is the target of both WWs & mafia, and the same goes to myself & Persivul. I'm putting myself as a preferred target over Blackstar bc I have TWO actions, so I'm most confusing to them. (Me & my big mouth. Now I see I didn't have to mention my second switch when it resulted in nothing regarding the proceedings of the game).

[Almost50]

@FA: Please confirm protecting

Ranger

tonight. I cannot Bus her when Persy is supposed to be tracking her. I should -instead- protect you & him. Fair enough? Any objections??

[Almost50]

Nevermind me. My action resolves before everyone elses, so even if I die I the mission will be successful and we will get the info we need. It's all good.

[Almost50]

My problem with Flubber is I'm not sure of his alignment. If I had a scum lean on him I would've hammered myself. If I had a strong town lean I would've proposed a no lynch, as it would give me one more place to confuse the scum. *Sigh* Proposing a no lynch as it is makes no sense bc if he IS scum then we might be giving them an additional kill. *Think Think Think*

[Almost50]

Jackal IS my top scum read

[Almost50]

Yes, but if he is the WW himself he might've checked on you bc he wants to out both town PRs AND mafia members. He's a Rolecop I don't doubt it. His alignment is questionable though. I only cleared him -upon your recommendation- bc I thought you were a seer.

P-edit: Why should a town cop act so scummy?? To avoid getting night killed on the first night.

You see, not everybody plays the game the same way you do. Not everybody has the same mindset. I'm not him, so I don't know what's going on inside his mind, but you go on and do an ISO of him (it's a fairly short one) to see how his posts are contradicting, lack depth and are practically screaming scum.

[Almost50]

Yes of course.. but only if I grow 2 more arms to afford 2 more bus actions per night, and we would need to join the neighbouring game to have extra hiding spot.

FA, be realistic. For one thing, we're only 10 players here, so where should we be hiding you, me, RC, Persy, Ranger, dave, FB, and BlackStar?? And if all are town, then what the heck are we waiting for? Let's lynch the other two & get it over with.

I'm protecting those with more importance to town. RC is basically a VT now.

[Almost50]

FA, my dear.

I

am most important at the start of the game, but less so as it goes on. As the numbers decrease there's no need for a double-down bus driver. I mean, what am I supposed to do when the game shrinks down to 3 or 4 players?? The coroner will be relegated to a VT as well as soon as she uses her 1X action tonight. The more important roles (if town aligned) will be the doctor, the vig, the rolecop & the cop.

[Almost50]

RC is always of great importance to town.

Yeah, no offense. I didn't mean it like that at all. I meant the importance of the role, but you already knew that you nagger.

[Almost50]

OK OK.. I will switch FA for FB then and put Persy in my own slot. Now Blackstar should switch himself with dave and we're all set.

[Almost50]

Huh?? OH. I said nAgger. You're nagging. Duh.

[Almost50]

The Heck.

VOTE: Jackal

This feels much better IMHO. Also I get the sense FA, Flubber & Persy are mildly willing to agree. Need two more.

[Almost50]

@BlackStar do an ISO of Jackal
@Flubber: OK then.. any last words?

[Almost50]

@Almost50 : If you announce who you are busdriving, scum can just switch their targets. Unless your plan includes that.

I was being most sarcastic in response to multiple bus requests, my friend. We know if I'm protecting A & B I cannot possibly be switching them in eachother's place.

[Almost50]

I'll wait until we see who BlackStar targeted to decide on the two shots. For now, I'm assuming she shot FA & dismembered FB (this one is almost a given, unless we do have a 3rd WW & just one mafioso). Then the mafia killed her. As it stands right now, none of my 4 switched players was targeted, so my action had no bearing on the night kills outcome (at least not directly).

Spoiler:

First Switch: davesaz for RC
Second Switch: Almost for BlackStar

Reasons: I stated I was going to bus FA & Pesry. Scum would -likely- expect me to do it this way, so I figured the safest spots for them to be would've been their own respective spots (no bussing needed).

Ranger shoudl've been protected by FA, so dave was the one priority left, and I took a gamble switching him for RC (who would want to shoot a hapless VT; which is basically what RC is by now).

The second switch was -somewhat- tricky. It was made clear to me in my Role PM that I

must

submit two actions each night. Jackal is my top scum read, and if FB is town they probably would shoot him. That's an unswitchable spot for me. Firebringer himself was brought back to the table by FA's remark on the possibility of a mafia/ww vig. I would've hidden dave there if I knew FB was scum, but alas that spot became very controversial as if it was a town vig spot it could be targeted by scum. So, 4 spots used, 3 that can't be used, and 2 remained that I had to switch for a second bussing action.

[Almost50]

*HE. I keep forgetting FB is a he who replaced a she.

[Almost50]

I think MY action resolved first though. I had submitted it just as soon as Kraeg put up the lynch flip. This means you were in Jackal's spot & he was in mine.

[Almost50]

So, FB died in his own spot. Definitely Mafia shot him (since he could not have targeted his own spot). He targeted FA (just as he said he would; jokingly). Ranger should tell us who killed lane, and if we're lucky one of the mafia team will be caught & lynched.

[Almost50]

I switched myself for you, THEN you switched my spot (YOU) for Jackal. That is FB targeted my spot with the WW faction kill (I had stated that I won't be protecting myself, so he might've fell for that one). I don't understand who he expected to be switched with FA though. Why did he shoot that particular spot? And of course the mafia knew he wasn't protected, so they shot him.

[Almost50]

Boy am I glad I didn't switch him for FA though. That would've confused the hell out of me not knowing whether it was him or the mafia that shot that spot (since both would've still died of fire shots anyway). The thought DID occur to me, but then I thought it was safer for her to stay in her own slot bc I did act very determined to move her out of it. (I had to play out this gambit to protect as many as I could.) To be honest; if I was one with a nightkill ability I would've not used it tonight for fear I'd end up shooting myself or my partner. Still trying to imagine WHO FB thought I'd be switching FA with? One thought is pinging me now though: He thought I would switch her with Jackal (my suspected WW), so he hit both spots to get rid of the both of them, albeit him thinking he was WWing FA & shooting Jackal.

The mafia -of course- wanted to get rid of a double-killing WW. They may not have known the WW part though, but they knew he could shoot at night and had to go.

Preliminary analysis (pending Ranger & dave investigation results):
Pesry cannot be mafia except if BlackStar also is. (Persy's spot Shot on N1).
BlackStar is very likely town. (He tried to protect me, having thought I would leave myself wide open).
If Rager's investigation result yields the lynching of mafia; she is a confirmed townie.
I can't decide -yet- on dave. Pending his own investigation result of the night.
RC is a total mystery. I can only positively clear him if both Persy & BlackStar are mafia (The shot a N1 on Persy's slot was meant for him).

[Almost50]

My result did NOT include a name. It just said the result was not mafia.

Who did you target?

[Almost50]

How hard is it to say "I requested X to be investigated "????

[Almost50]

@dave: You checked ME. I was the one in BS slot.

@RC: Sounded like it. I don't think he understands the cop inevstigation vs the modifier thing though.

@dave (again): Yes, I'd very much recommend waiting on Ranger's result.

@RC: If you're a lone scum of one given faction & you have a special role, then yes .. you can submit your own AND your faction's actions.

[Almost50]

The "timestamp" won't help you much, bc My timing is adjusted to UTC +2. (Sent: Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:52 pm). However, I already said it was send as soon as Kraeg posted the lynch flip result, so mine resolved first.

[Almost50]

You're all very funny and all, but could we please wait on Ranger's result before we vote?? Is it that hard, RC/BS??

@dave: Just wanted to say I'm not impressed by your investigation target of the night. I would've investigated Ranger, if for nothing else then bc she's the one who should (and evidently didn't) get bussed, so you would've known you really targeted her beforehand. Reason she would've not been bussed (I did explain this before): Persy was tracking her. That's why we got FA to protect her.

[Almost50]

A little RC-BS distancing maybe?

I wanted to consider it, but then if it was the case then their best move would've been to bus Ranger (but w/o claiming it). Now picture this: You track that spot and see she doesn't visit lane, so you push on her. She gets lynched and flips town. YOU are the automatic next day lynch. Meanwhile someone gets shot at night. This would've probably won them the game already, and while BS is obviously new (which I must stress does NOT indicate he is any less smart) I know RC is not. He most probably would've gone down that road (if I can think of it, then he must have).

[Almost50]

@Persy: Yes. If RC & BS are mafia together, they would've bussed Ranger so you would see the spot as not visiting lane and push on Ranger, and when she flips town (bc obviously we can't have more than 2 scum still alive) we would be down to 5, so if they pick the right night kill they've won. If they don't then you will be lynched next day and -again- night action will decide the winner.

[Almost50]

Even considering no night kill in N3, your lynch on D4 is enough for them to win.

[Almost50]

Ah, ok. Sorry. My bad.

[Almost50]

We know we do have at least one mafia member on the loose. So let's consider the possibilities.

Persy is the lone scum left (mafia): Why would he confirm Ranger? And why would she say see saw BS as visiting lane?

RC is the lone scum left (mafia): Why is BS showing as visiting lane?

Dave is the lone scum left (mafia): Same.

Almost is the lone scum left (mafia): Ah! He's lying about his targets. But how does that explain the WW vig claiming they targeted Persy, yet Persy didn't get shot?

BS is the lone scum left (mafia): Makes some sense, but why didn't he switch Ranger for someone else & shoot that spot?

Ranger is the lone scum left (mafia): She's lying, but she knows she'll be lynched in the morrow for it.

This means that there's a slight chance we have only 1 scum left, but if that's the case then BS is.

DO we have two mafia members left then? This would mean we are in MyLo already, so we better be careful who we lynch.

There's also the possibility of us having one more WW + 1 or 2 mafia members left, which would be complicated to analyse at best, but I will try.

For now I'll conclude that IF AND ONLY IF there's only one scum (we know it would be a mafioso if that's the case) then that will be BS.

Please hold your votes though while I try to work the other possibilities out.

[Almost50]

1 WW + 1 or 2 Mafia left:

When Smithereens claimed it was an intentional attempt to out the Bus Driver who had messed up with her kill, thus leading her to shoot one of her partners. Possibilities:

Pesry is the remaining WW: But she did shoot at that spot.

RC is the remaining WW: But that is presumably where the WW factional kill was diercted at. Unless the WWs made a gambit trying to conceal their existence and were content with their vig kill.

Dave is the remaining WW: Can anybody come up with a reason why this is not the case? I don't fully understand the night kill choices though.

Almost is the remaining WW: Switching Persy for Starbuck makes no sense when Smithereens was going to shoot that spot.

BS is the remaining WW: Doesn't explain the lane NK was done by gun. Plus why would TWO WWs visit the same target?

Ranger is the remaining WW: Why would she kill the ROLECOP when instead of FA. We know FB couldn't have targeted his own spot with a shot, so the shot on my spot was his, which I understand, but the factional kill went to Jackal's spot. Did they expect me to hide FA/Persy there?? Because neither the Cop nor the Rolecop represent much threat on WWs. She might've needed Persy alive though to verify her role.

Conclusion: If a WW still exists it's between Dave & Ranger. The remaining mafia members (1 or 2) are yet unknown and will need further analysis to try and out them.

[Almost50]

@RC: Please produce an argument with analysis to support your statement(s). I'm trying to cover all possibilities in light of the info we have. WIFOM is extremely dangerous at this stage.

[Almost50]

Mate, that's your story. Try coming up with something undebatable. For one thing, you'd notice I included myself as a suspect. Don't I know I'm town myself? I do, but I do not expect other to just take my word for it. I have to consider the possibility and show you ANALYTICALLY that I cannot be scum for the given reason(s).

For another thing, I have yet to come up with a possibility in which you would be a suspect, so why the hurry?

@Everybody: Please DO read in details AND DOUBLE CHECK for yourselves. Do NOT take any of my conclusions for granted. I'm very well open to discussion as I know I'm not perfect and could indeed make a mistake here or there. Once you've read, comprehended and become convinced of my reasoning for a certain case move on to the next. If there's something missing that you think would implicate someone I cleared or clear (beyond doubt) someone I put as a suspect in any given scenario, PLEASE SHARE.

I know time is tight, but there's no room for mistakes either. Thank you all.

[Almost50]

2 mafia remain:

Persy + RC: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

Persy + Dave: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

Persy + Almost: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

Percy + BS: Why does Persy confirm Ranger's target when he simply could've claimed anything to implicate her and get her lynched today, and win by virtue of the night kill tonight or even the next night.

Percy + Ranger: Pesry confirming dave + the Mason's debate on D1 make this look very very unlikely, not to mention Ranger trying to derail the Wednesday wagon by getting Percy lynched instead. VERY unlikely.

RC + Dave: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

RC + Almost: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

RC + BS: Why did BS protect me tonight? They should've shot me instead. Why didn't they shoot Persy either to create a big WIFOM?

RC + Ranger: This would be a classic. I need someone to refute this one analytically.

Dave + Almost: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

Dave + BS: Dave would know whom to clear alight, so doesn't necessarily need to be a Cop to begin with, but then he DID visit Jackal as per Percy's confirmation. Still a valid possibility (makes sense to kill the Rolecop is Dave is NOT a cop. It makes sense he would try to clear BS at first (post # 1570) then try to bus him next when it failed (post # 1577). Then 1573 bugs me the most. I don't see dave to be the noob not to know he would not have got a result on a target that had been NK'd. It could be a slip, but it's something to ponder on.

Dave + Ranger: Another one I cannot prove to be an impossible or a very remote possibility.

Almost + BS: Why would we BOTH try to protect Persy on N1? And why did we BOTH claim our roles?

Almost + Ranger: Our best move would've certainly been moving Ranger off her spot to set Persy up. Yet again, we might've been afraid of FB and saw Persy could still verify Ranger's role. The other switch makes sense (myself for BS then getting my spot shot), and I have proof of my 1st switch (dave for RC) since no attempt was made on either.

BS + Ranger: Is she bussing her partner for no reason? They basically win if we mislynch today.

The remaining mafia duo are one of the following 4 either: RC + Ranger, Dave + BS, Dave + Ranger, Almost + Ranger.

Now combining all possibilities yields 8 remaining possibilities:

1- BS is lone mafia remaining.
2- RC + Ranger are Mafia
3- Dave + BS are Mafia
4- Dave + Ranger are Mafia
5- Almost + Ranger are Mafia
6- Dave is a WW; RC + Ranger are Mafia
7- Dave is a WW, Almost + Ranger are Mafia
8- Ranger is a WW, Dave + BS are Mafia

Persy is analytically 100% clear. It follows that Ranger's role is confirmed as a coroner.

Once again, please verify my reasoning for excluding the cases I did first (to make sure they are indeed impossible). Next up, check the ones I left as possible and try to find a reason to refute that possibility, so as to minimize our options. For example, Dave can't be mafia rules out 2 possibilities, while him not being a WW rules out 2 other possibilities, so Dave is NOT scum = only 4 possibilities remaining, while Ranger is NOT scum leaves us with only 2 options. I would very much be happy to have someone clearing her beyond any reasonable doubt bc that would mean an automatic lynch for BS, and if the game doesn't end then the next one is dave.

Thank you for your consideration. I hereby rest my case.

[Almost50]

Do you agree or disagree with my premise: that there is confirmed scum in Blackstar and Ranger?

Disagree. The correct phrasing where I'm standing now is "high possibility" not "confirmed. And, even if I agree -just for the sake of argument- we make the wrong choice we could still lose.

[Almost50]

It can't be 1 WW + 2 mafia left. Out of 6 remaining there are at least 4 town per the initial requirements. At most 2 scum remain.

Th○7t's absolutely correct. Then I must work the possibilities for 1 WW + 1 Mafioso & disregard the bottom 3 options in my previous post.

[Almost50]

This means our new 7 options are:

1- BS is lone mafia remaining.
2- Dave is a WW, BS is mafia
3- Ranger is a WW, BS is mafia
4- RC + Ranger are Mafia
5- Dave + BS are Mafia
6- Dave + Ranger are Mafia
7- Almost + Ranger are Mafia

Correct?

[Almost50]

BTW, my tracking ability tells me that Ranger targeted lane, not that she visited lane. It's possible she's lying about her role and results. I doubt that she's lying - it would have been very easy to name a single person and I think most of us would have been happy with the clarity and lynched them.

Yes, but who targets the dead? To my knowledge only the coroner does. In fact I didn't know such a role existed either.

Also, what are you trying to tell me with your quotes of BS & my N1 action posts? I'm sorry, but my mind is taking a short break after doing this in-depth yet quick analysis, so the obvious might still escape me at this time. (That's why I'm asking you to help refute some of my arguments either way).

[Almost50]

it would have been very easy to name a single person and I think most of us would have been happy with the clarity and lynched them.

Actually; that would've been a slip. We know for a fact Smither/Fireball had the gravedigger modifier on them. She could've fell back on "that goes without saying" though.

[Almost50]

Wait: Something hit me, and I need your input. It's weak, but it could help YOU see things better: I did state my exact N2 switches BEFORE dave made his investigation results know. If I'm not lying about my switch targets then I'm NOT mafia. Now how do I prove I wasn't lying??

[Almost50]

Blackstar doesn't even claim to have targeted lane with his bus drive. So, it doesn't matter if he was driven himself.

Yes. I'm considering options 4, 6 & 7 though. If either is true then Ranger is covering up for herself or her partner, putting some other person's name instead so that we would lynch them, and the mafia wins with their night kill.

[Almost50]

- we lynch Blackstar today
- I track RC and davesaz cops RC tonight. He can't kill both of us.

But the possibilty of both BS & RC being scum (either 2 mafia or 1 Ma + 1 WW) is null.

[Almost50]

@Ranger? So? Both cases DO assume you're a mafia Coroner with either of them.

However, I've come to the conclusion BS cannot be a "lone" mafioso. If he was, why would he protect me? The switch of my spot & Jackal's is proven by the fact Jackal did get attacked by WWs there. Protecting me to further mess up his targets makes no sense.

Actually the same applies ti him being scum partners with dave? WHY would they want to protect the double-action bus driver when they already have their own driver? My mere existence should confuse the hell of them, and while I can see them targeting the WW vig I don't see why they didn't just leave me in my spot & hope I would be one of the WW's kills.

BS is NOT scum.

[Almost50]

This leaves us with the following 3 options:

4- RC + Ranger are Mafia
6- Dave + Ranger are Mafia
7- Almost + Ranger are Mafia

VOTE: Ranger

[Almost50]

WAIT. How DO we know BS IS a bus driver to begin with? And if he is, how do we know his stated switches to be true?

UNVOTE: Ranger

[Almost50]

I need a break. My mind is burning up. I will come back in 30 minutes or so. I just need to stop thinking and stop staring on the screen.

[Almost50]

First & foremost: The ladies at the house wish to THANK YOU very much. In order for me to switch my brain off/on again I went to help them with the dishes, which is something I do not do very often.

Second: I've done another quick ISO of both Ranger & Dave which lead me to nothing new. I we could only clear one of them beyond reasonable doubt it would help us narrow down our options. If Ranger is town BS is the obvious lynch for today. If dave is town; Ranger is on 3 of the 4 remaining scenarios, with the 4th being BS is the LONELY scum left, hence lynching Ranger would be best.

The problem appears to be the their voting patterns:

Ranger: Started by voting Almost; then switched to Starbuck and ended the day on Jackal, who was also her vote target at the start of D2. Then she switched to Persy, then flubber. Not one of them is mafia.

On the other hand: Ranger relentlessly defended Wendnesday; which is something I don't see scum doing.

dave's voting pattern is no better: He only RSV's RC, then voted lane, then Almost then put Wednesday at L-1. On D2 he voted flubber, unvoted, then voted him again.

If I still can't decide on my vote target later on I might just sheep Persivul. He's the only one I know to be town beyond any shadow of doubt.

That's all for now.

[Almost50]

The only way I can be scum if Persivul isn't is if I'm a mafia coroner, as I was confirmed by Persivul to target lane.

So there's your analysis right there.

Same goes for the dave+me one.

So, Ranger; Please tell me this: Why can't you be a WW Coroner? And why did you consider being a Mafia Coroner an unlikely possibility, thus vindicating yourself?

[Almost50]

@Everybody: What are the chances you would receive the same role in both draws? Cuz this 164looks a bit iffy. I know you did track her to lane, so she IS a coroner on this game, but do you think that was also her first draw??

Not only this, but she states she was extremely disappointed she had to settle for something weak this time around. Do you think Coroner is weak?

I don't know, but for some reason I'm not comfortable voting for BS. I could be wrong though, but this is how I feel. I had a remark from the N2 phase analysis (before the action/flips were posted) next to Ranger that reads: "Ranger is mafia = will set someone up today. Associate unknown.". I had really hoped she would try to frame you or me though, bc then I would've known 100% she was lying. Now I don't "know" that but I'm skeptical regarding her result on BS.

Feedback much appreciated.

[Almost50]

And finally: upon Ranger's flip we learn this:

1- She's a WW --> lynch BS. He's the remaining mafia.
2- She's mafia --> BS is clear. Possible partners are dave, RC or me (I know I"m not, but for you guys there may still be some doubt)
3- She's town --> There's still a chance BS is the lone mafia remaining, OR it's him and dave (in which case we lose).

[Almost50]

Mafia Cop is a useless role in a game with mafia + ww

Agreed, but how do we know you ARE a Cop? Mafia Seer/Tracker/Watcher are all possible roles for you to show up visiting Jackal on N1.

[Almost50]

@dave: If you had only one hour left for deadline, who would you be voting?

[Almost50]

@BS: You do realize what I said about her flipping options, right? If she flips town OR WW you're the next lynch by default. ONLY if she's mafia will you be a confirmed townie.

[Almost50]

Can we just not vote for now?

I'm game. Let's wait for more feedback from all parties.

[Almost50]

I'm down for that also.

[Almost50]

Well, if this is the case then I would rather you would use your second Governor shot NOW.

VOTE: Ranger

[Almost50]

Ranger; Persy has been ANALYTICALLY proven town. There is no acceptable scenario in which he could be either mafia or WW.

[Almost50]

I can't at all fathom that Blackstar would choose Mafia over Werewolf.

You realize this to be an argument FOR BlackStar, not against him? For one thing, in none of the remaining 7 scenarios is he a WW. For another, lane was killed by a mafia shot. Now you're telling us he's not likely to be mafia??

[Almost50]

RC; are you intentionally acting like this or is this your nature?? It was shown Almost + Blackstar CANNOT be scum together. At least one of us switched Persy for Starbuck to protect him. Starbuck got shot by his own partner. Even if that was a lie and Smither actually shot lane it would still not make any sense for a mafia team of Almost & BS to shoot an inactive. Period.

And btw, it is NOT a lie either bc Smither admitted shooting at Persy's slot even before either of the 2 Bus Drivers claimed, and we're supposed to be mafia while she was a WW.

Now STOP BEING A NAG. Everything YOU say is a distraction. Scum or town, I don't really care what you are for the time being. Just stop it, please.

[Almost50]

I'm holding my breath. I think it'd be 2-3 more hours though for Kraeg to come online, so if anybody suddenly realizes something they're welcome to talk.