Open 879: Fire and More Fire [game over]

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: The Bulge

I am very mature

[Radical Rat]

Bingle is Jingle I'm pretty sure

[Radical Rat]

I recognize Meuh. Don't recognize you though.

VOTE: Merlyn

[Radical Rat]

It is oh so very tempting to put Cook at E-1

It is!

VOTE: Cook

And I'm no coward.

[Radical Rat]

Cookies taste better when seasoned with Danger

[Radical Rat]

For the record, while I do still consider this Mostly an RVS vote, I also don't take putting her at E-1 lightly, and have a small seed of reasoning behind it.

[Radical Rat]

For the record, while I do still consider this Mostly an RVS vote, I also don't take putting her at E-1 lightly, and have a small seed of reasoning behind it.

what is that reasoning?

If I were ready to share it, I would have done so with the vote. For now, just know that there Is reasoning.

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: towel

I am a big believer in omgus theory

How serious are you here?

[Radical Rat]

I'm too lazy to count now, what's towwl/Drew at now?

[Radical Rat]

Regarding Cook, I didn't really get what I wanted out of that. I was hoping to keep her at E-1 for a bit, or at least have Cook be the one to break it.

But I thought that towwl's resistance to being the E-1 vote looked performative, and the Ausuka vote was a bit chainsawy, and given the nature of the setup, I wasn't worried about scum lolhammering... but I expect scum to be nervous about Town lolhammering.

In a normal setup I probably would have just voted towwl there instead, but with E-1 being (relatively) safe, more informative, and more fun... I wanted to see how the cookie crumbled.

[Radical Rat]

I think osuka is Town here.

While not really because of the joke itself, the timing and posturing around it WAS suspicious for towwl. And since the Mafia is split between the lover pairs here, I'd expect scum to be a bit more careful when looking for targets, since the usual kind of things Town can do to look scummy that normally makes them easy mislim targets, could also just as easily be from the other scum pair.

[Radical Rat]

Bingle keeps a case on every player locked in a vault as a contingency plan for if any of them go rogue

Sounds like that could be easily exploited if the Mafia ever find a way into his vault and turned his cases against the Town

[Radical Rat]

He's already gone, there's really no need to keep piling on insults

[Radical Rat]

what is the insult on this page? i genuinely cant find it

I interpreted the destroying brain cells comment, followed by you saying you'd apologize but you weren't sorry, as being an insult directed at towwl.

If I misread that, that's my bad, sorry

[Radical Rat]

I think "signalling to other scum" is a really fundamentally extremely obviously idiotic idea and I am curious about why Bingle does not.seem to think that

I mean when scum not recognizing each other runs the risk of losing Night 1 to shooting each other... I think the play makes sense if you think you could pull it off.

I do not necessarily agree that that's actually what happened, but it's not really that outlandish.

[Radical Rat]

I think "signalling to other scum" is a really fundamentally extremely obviously idiotic idea and I am curious about why Bingle does not.seem to think that

I mean when scum not recognizing each other runs the risk of losing Night 1 to shooting each other... I think the play makes sense if you think you could pull it off.

I do not necessarily agree that that's actually what happened, but it's not really that outlandish.

Why would you think you could pull it off in any situation? Again, mafia don't have any idea who the other mafia are so they can't somehow target the soft

I guess if you think this too Bingle might have come to the same conclusion but meh

The game's essentially a pseudo-multiball arrangement, only the scumteams don't want to kill each other.

While identities aren't known, you have an advantage in scumhunting and can potentially make subtle probes about it.

There's the risk of getting caught, yes, but the risk of getting shot is worse in this setup, so depending on scum's confidence level it's something I do expect to happen.

[Radical Rat]

That's a fast crush

[Radical Rat]

Is it really that crazy to think it is obviously unwise to try and target two specific people you don't have any knowledge of in a pool of fifteen and expect it to work

I mean really

Well, like I said I don't agree with Bingle that you actually were doing that. I think it was too early for such an attempt, and if I were scum it isn't something I would have interpreted as a signal.

But I also don't think it's such an unreasonable thought that Bingle has to be scum doing it.

[Radical Rat]

Drew signaling scum.

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Doctor Drew

This is largely unrelated to the fire with fire thing, I meant to do this after the vote count and forgot.

[Radical Rat]

Drew signaling scum.

Ya I just realized I need to be more subtle about it. Was just so excited to sub into a scum slot.

Don't worry, just OMGUS me for a bit and we'll look totally unaligned, no one'll notice

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: RadicalRat

GeorgeBailey

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Firebringer ruined the economy

Just a heads up, there was a crazy wind storm in my city last night and power is out everywhere. It must have messed with my phone service provider because I can't even connect to 5G at my apartment. There are estimates my power will be out for several days so I'm not really sure what to expect here. Either way I'll catch up when I'm able to get internet at home

Jeez, hope you're okay Black!

Merlyn goes in my locktown bin because she's the only person that cares about me

VOTE: Firebringer

if you pick out all the capitalized letters in Firebringer's posts it spells out

"I am the scum"

VOTE: Firebringer

Invis votes FB as an RVS vote, then follows with seemingly jokey votes on Cook and Towwl. I feel like Invis was gauging the reactions to the votes.

Black votes FB, then Invis basically immediately follows suit but includes the bolded part.....which is the biggest signal to me.

I feel Invis strongly feels like Black's vote on FB was a signal to them(them being Invis), and Black's response to just run FB no matter what was the response that makes me feel that Black was picking up what Invis was putting down.

This is why I have been a bit vague with Black, seems more clear that Invis was signalling more than Black.....but am fine with a Black vote as well.

Pre Edit: Eww Black, you should I don't do mech talk lol

And FB, it is ok....the bad people will be killed soon.

This is.... incredibly contrived. It only makes sense if Invisibility were to already know Black is scum, but then there'd be no need for signaling. And sure, as I said before, scum has an advantage over Town in hunting the other pair, but voting the same person in early D1 is just... not enough.

Plus, the "I am the scum" thing is being attributed to Firebringer, so like. That's a few too many lines to expect someone to read between and come away with the correct conclusion.

[Radical Rat]

Am I to take this as you agreeing with him?

[Radical Rat]

A signal also has to be visible to work though, like. I guess you saw it as a signal, so if you're in the other scum pair, mission accomplished, but I think if you're trying to send a message like that, and you don't know who the other scum are, you're not going to want to frame it as an accusation of a third party.

Maybe if the accusation in question were some super weird thing, or maybe if the one being accused is the intended recipient of the signal, this could be more plausible, but like. Look at the logic in play here.

1. Invisibility has to interpret Black voting Firebringer as Black being scum. This seems like a large leap to make already, especially since Firebringer could be scum also/instead.

2. Invisibility has to believe Black will be looking for signals from the other Mafia. This is a reasonable expectation, no issues here.

3. Invisibility has to believe Black will ignore the context of the vote and accusation of Firebringer and focus only on the specific phrasing of "I am the scum." The problem here is that it looks way too much like an accusation Town would reasonably make, and if Invisibility gets unlucky and Firebringer is scum, with or without Black, this could actually PROVOKE a kill instead, which... defeats the whole purpose of signaling.

So, there is precisely one scenario where I think this kind of signal MIGHT make sense, and that's if one of the pairs is Firebringer/Invisibility. In this scenario, Invisibility has exclusive knowledge of Firebringer's alignment and vice versa, so there's no need to fear accidentally provoking a kill, and it's possible to interpret the attempted message to be "Leave Firebringer alone, he's on our side," but then that doesn't really gel with the way Invisibility seems to be properly on board with it. Which could theoretically be faked of course, but if it is believed too much by either Town or the other Mafia, it's basically suicidal to attempt this level of shenanigans.

TL;DR: Either Invisibility's on some 5D Chess shit, or you're reading way too much into this

[Radical Rat]

I feel like Drew's read on me and Black is the kind of moon logic someone would most likely only come to if they had no context of roles

This is an open setup though, we all have context of roles.

[Radical Rat]

See, what I find most interesting with this is that Drew specifically attached to your post as being a signal, which out of all the posts I think could have maybe looked like signals (I won't be pointing them out so as not to influence possible scum perceptions; ask me after we get one pair down), yours is probably among the least likely, at least to my eyes.

To me, the reading is that Drew picked something he thought he could sell as being a signal rather than something he genuinely believed was.

[Radical Rat]

See, what I find most interesting with this is that Drew specifically attached to your post as being a signal, which out of all the posts I think could have maybe looked like signals (I won't be pointing them out so as not to influence possible scum perceptions; ask me after we get one pair down), yours is probably among the least likely, at least to my eyes.

To me, the reading is that Drew picked something he thought he could sell as being a signal rather than something he genuinely believed was.

I don't get your angle here, you agree that they might be signalling....but you disagree on which post/posts have the signals, which is fair.....and that makes me scum?

Like I believe you were suspicious of Towel(correct me if I am wrong, but it seemed like you were ready to vote my slot before I did anything) so I can understand if the suspicions are still there when I rep in, but kinda feels like you are just reaching for a reason to keep scum reading me, starting to feel less genuine now to me.

I am referring to posts from people who are not Invisibility. Essentially, I believe that if you're serious about calling out signaling, there are others with stronger cases you're ignoring, possibly because you find them believable. I'm choosing not to point those out yet, but I'll be happy to once one scum pair is dead.

Invisibility's post is not super likely to be a genuine signal, as I've outlined earlier, but her using the phrasing she did gave you an angle to push it as one.

I'll admit you're right about me having a bias from towwl's posting, but you haven't really done anything to make me doubt that read yet.

[Radical Rat]

See, what I find most interesting with this is that Drew specifically attached to your post as being a signal, which out of all the posts I think could have maybe looked like signals (I won't be pointing them out so as not to influence possible scum perceptions; ask me after we get one pair down), yours is probably among the least likely, at least to my eyes.

To me, the reading is that Drew picked something he thought he could sell as being a signal rather than something he genuinely believed was.

I don't get your angle here, you agree that they might be signalling....but you disagree on which post/posts have the signals, which is fair.....and that makes me scum?

Like I believe you were suspicious of Towel(correct me if I am wrong, but it seemed like you were ready to vote my slot before I did anything) so I can understand if the suspicions are still there when I rep in, but kinda feels like you are just reaching for a reason to keep scum reading me, starting to feel less genuine now to me.

I am referring to posts from people who are not Invisibility. Essentially, I believe that if you're serious about calling out signaling, there are others with stronger cases you're ignoring, possibly because you find them believable. I'm choosing not to point those out yet, but I'll be happy to once one scum pair is dead.

Invisibility's post is not super likely to be a genuine signal, as I've outlined earlier, but her using the phrasing she did gave you an angle to push it as one.

I'll admit you're right about me having a bias from towwl's posting, but you haven't really done anything to make me doubt that read yet.

I feel signalling is the big scum tell here on D1, I also feel Invis made what I believe is the most believable(and easy to explain away) signal that I saw. Sure, maybe I missed another or I am reading too much into this.....but just what I believe.

You saying you saw some signals, and not saying what you saw......and only revealing them after one scum pair is dead.......and your timing of your vote on me, and the fitting the argument to match the conclusion......is what makes me feel you are not genuine. You just feel you can get the mis elim on me and are fine with that.

I believe that scum likely has attempted and/or will attempt to identify themselves to other scum. I also believe Town should be paying attention and looking for that too.

However, I don't really think that should be what we're focusing on when pushing people, because it's kind of helping the scum teams find each other if we point out all the instances where there might be signals. In the event that we're right about something being a signal, that doesn't really matter, but if we're wrong, or just not convincing enough, litigating these potential signals is just going to help scum sort through them.

Instead, I think the best way to handle this is to scumhunt normally first, then after a Mafia pair is dead, we go back through and see if they made any attempts to signal out, and look for who might have been attempting to respond, or vice versa.

I don't anticipate everyone to agree with me on that, but the way you've been making this push feels like it's coming in bad faith to me. Contrast with Bingle's push on Ausuka, which I also disagree with, but can at least see where Bingle's coming from.

[Radical Rat]

Let me describe to you the Bingle master scum game for all of those in attendance to be aware of.

1) Talk about a lot of mech.
2) Be extremely affable and sarcastic
3) Position your reads in ways easy to move around later

The first doesn't apply in this game because its open and bingle doesn't have a lot to talk about in mech. The second is something he would do as town too i just included that cause he does it a lot and enjoy reading it.

The third is the real one i am seeing here.

Here is my theory. Read 191 this is the scumhunting that i don't believe is real bingle scumhuntin. Bingle already gave his opinion on what a scum player could or should do and announced in 197 and 207

You see the trick in multiball scum is that scum can and will actually scumhunt. Except they are only hunting another team to look for scum. that is what i think is happening here with scum read on ausuka. I don't think Bingle believes ausuka scumread. I think he is following his own trail of thoughts in looking for someone could look scummy but isn't that scummy.

Also 212 just screams to me scum mindset.

GeorgeBailey demands his head.

This is pretty much the feeling I'm getting from Drew. Bingle doesn't really feel significantly off from how he did in Team Mafia to me, and I find his version of this play more plausible, so I've been lightly townleaning him

[Radical Rat]

I believe in townbringer

Black's votes are scummy but then scum are probably less likely than town to do something scummy like that so I am going to townread black instead

Please explain how this makes any sense at all

[Radical Rat]

I believe in townbringer

Black's votes are scummy but then scum are probably less likely than town to do something scummy like that so I am going to townread black instead

Please explain how this makes any sense at all

What is there you don't understand? Something that's blatantly 'scummy' is something scum will be mindful to avoid doing most of the time, whereas town are less likely to care

To an extent, yes, but also there's a reason the things are scummy, and that's usually because scum does them.

That doesn't mean Town never does anything scummy, but the way you're presenting this is that you're townreading Black FOR being scummy, rather than townreading Black in spite of her being scummy, and that doesn't make sense.

[Radical Rat]

To an extent, yes, but also there's a reason the things are scummy, and that's usually because scum does them.

Everything is context dependent but on the whole i disagree with this

How would you define "scummy" if not as "like scum?"

[Radical Rat]

A signal also has to be visible to work though, like. I guess you saw it as a signal, so if you're in the other scum pair, mission accomplished, but I think if you're trying to send a message like that, and you don't know who the other scum are, you're not going to want to frame it as an accusation of a third party.

Maybe if the accusation in question were some super weird thing, or maybe if the one being accused is the intended recipient of the signal, this could be more plausible, but like. Look at the logic in play here.

1. Invisibility has to interpret Black voting Firebringer as Black being scum. This seems like a large leap to make already, especially since Firebringer could be scum also/instead.

2. Invisibility has to believe Black will be looking for signals from the other Mafia. This is a reasonable expectation, no issues here.

3. Invisibility has to believe Black will ignore the context of the vote and accusation of Firebringer and focus only on the specific phrasing of "I am the scum." The problem here is that it looks way too much like an accusation Town would reasonably make, and if Invisibility gets unlucky and Firebringer is scum, with or without Black, this could actually PROVOKE a kill instead, which... defeats the whole purpose of signaling.

So, there is precisely one scenario where I think this kind of signal MIGHT make sense, and that's if one of the pairs is Firebringer/Invisibility. In this scenario, Invisibility has exclusive knowledge of Firebringer's alignment and vice versa, so there's no need to fear accidentally provoking a kill, and it's possible to interpret the attempted message to be "Leave Firebringer alone, he's on our side," but then that doesn't really gel with the way Invisibility seems to be properly on board with it. Which could theoretically be faked of course, but if it is believed too much by either Town or the other Mafia, it's basically suicidal to attempt this level of shenanigans.

TL;DR: Either Invisibility's on some 5D Chess shit, or you're reading way too much into this

setting aside the fact that it took WAY too much effort to even parse this post, either i'm misunderstanding or it just doesn't make any sense. right off the bat - if you're scum and you picked up on what you think is a signal from another team, why the fuck would you point that out in the public thread? that's moronic.

are you saying that because the "signal" came from firebringer, that then black would have to be scum if she voted that slot and THAT was the signal? deranged

Sorry, I do have a tendency to be overly verbose, but you are indeed misunderstanding.

I'm saying that I don't think it makes any sense for Invisibility's post to be a signal, nothing about Firebringer or Black signaling each other.

Basically, I don't believe Drew really believes it's a signal either and is pushing in bad faith, but if he is Town, he's probably very wrong.

[Radical Rat]

Mafia are lovers.

There is never going to be a single red flip, only pairs.

[Radical Rat]

To an extent, yes, but also there's a reason the things are scummy, and that's usually because scum does them.

Everything is context dependent but on the whole i disagree with this

How would you define "scummy" if not as "like scum?"

Things that a lot people consider scummy

So what is the point you're actually making here then? Remove the word "scummy" from your vocabulary, what is it you're trying to point out about Black?

[Radical Rat]

Alright, that makes more sense, thank you.

I'd still hesitate to hand out townreads for it, but I understand the point better.

[Radical Rat]

I haven't actually made up my mind about Black yet. I think I'm leaning scum though

[Radical Rat]

I think scum want to publicly town hunt this game. Like moreso than usual because I feel like the scum teams probably want to coordinate with each other as far as knocking off townies. The problem is townies are going to do this too because it's what townies do. So it might be hard to pinpoint where the noise is coming from but I think we can at least feel good about scum helping town sort

Isn't this a bit contradictory? If both scumteams are sharing genuine townreads, they're just making the PoE worse for them aren't they?

[Radical Rat]

Composition wise, I definitely like the Bingle wagon better than the Ausuka wagon

[Radical Rat]

I think scum want to publicly town hunt this game. Like moreso than usual because I feel like the scum teams probably want to coordinate with each other as far as knocking off townies. The problem is townies are going to do this too because it's what townies do. So it might be hard to pinpoint where the noise is coming from but I think we can at least feel good about scum helping town sort

Isn't this a bit contradictory? If both scumteams are sharing genuine townreads, they're just making the PoE worse for them aren't they?

No, I like it as a take: scum are slightly more incentived to find town, especially day one where there's a lot of wiggle room after: they narrow down their Poe to one they are relatively confident with, but know that a) it's day one so it's bound to be a bit wrong b) it's day one so publicly re-assessing, especially after a 'nit their ream' scum slip is fine and c) they should also be doing it knowing that the other team are doing the same thing (which felt significant when I started this sentence)

Also, bkacks town for day one, this wagon is worse thab the bingle one

The contradiction is that Black is saying the teams would be coordinating by sharing genuine townreads to "knock off." This makes no sense for mislims, because you can't just go "I think we should eliminate my top townread now," and for nightkills this only works if you know who the other pair is.

I of course agree that scum will be looking for Town, but if townhunting is their focus, and they're doing that publicly and honestly, as Black seems to be suggesting here, it's doing them more harm than good.

So I don't really expect scum townreads to be much different than the usual attempts to pocket people, defend buddies, or look busy.

[Radical Rat]

My heart still says Drew, but I'll also take Cook or Black.

May compromise on Bingle, but I'd rather not yet.

Never voting for either of the 'sukas or Firebringer today, barring some wacky developments.

[Radical Rat]

I'm still leaning Town on Bingle, it's just that he's the townlean I'm most willing to compromise on since it isn't a very strong lean, and it looks like a Town-driven wagon at least.

[Radical Rat]

i may or may not be taking acid 2morrow

a poll: should my first bout of serious posting be on page 25+ while tripping acid? please vote:

a) yea
b) hell yea
c) nah
d) skyg what are ya doin drugs are illegal

C.
Sounds like a moderately bad idea to be attempting internet arguments while your brain is attempting to enter orbit

[Radical Rat]

My heart still says Drew, but I'll also take Cook or Black.

May compromise on Bingle, but I'd rather not yet.

Never voting for either of the 'sukas or Firebringer today, barring some wacky developments.

are we seriously talking about compromises with 5 days to go?

I didn't have anything else to say, so just gave an update on where my mind's at.

But also I've been in a few too many games lately where we've cut things way too close to deadline, so I don't mind getting ahead of things just a bit.

[Radical Rat]

Alright, tell ya what.

VOTE: Cook

Is anyone actually townreading Cook here? I recognize she hasn't done much of anything TO read, but I don't think it's a coincidence that she was present for RVS, then vanished once things got serious, in combination with the delicious pre-flip associative from towwl.

[Radical Rat]

hey cook what are your thoughts on the leading wagons

i like all three but i think we're gonna mislim somehow

could osuka be defending the mechtalkers be anything of substance

also i'm liking the bulge but i'd like to point out that discussing that as a scum tactic is in of itself doing the same thing it claims to condemn: speaking in hypotheticals

hot take the quiet players are all vts

Also here's a collection of her handful of posts that I don't like.

[Radical Rat]

Welcome aboard! I'm sorry you rolled scum

[Radical Rat]

Oh damn, my bad

[Radical Rat]

has anyone mentioned that the IC should just out btw?

I mean theres a decent chance both scum groups try to kill IC and then the kill fails.
So im not seeing a good reason of just taking a person out of elim pool now, except it hurts the IC ability to hunt people

it also increases odds of scum cross killing.

IC has the secondary effect of potentially tricking scum since they're also a Miller.

Though I suppose that's mostly only helpful if both scumteams Cop them before trying to shoot them, so.

Yeah, I'm cool with a reveal if everyone else is.

[Radical Rat]

Wait I changed my mind.

IC claiming is only optimal if we mislim. We shouldn't be mislimming.

IC should claim only if they're in danger of elimination.

[Radical Rat]

I'm on mobile so no quote surgery, but accusing me of repurposing Firebringer's case to point to Drew is just a blatant misrepresentation. If indeed you were ISOing me, you should have seen that I had already held that sentiment well before Firebringer made his post about Bingle, and my response to it was just an attempt to restate it more plainly.

[Radical Rat]

Actually going back and looking, I guess I wasn't as clear as I thought I was with the quote.

I was specifically referring to Firebringer saying he felt like Bingle was using mostly genuine thoughts to make a plausible case on Ausuka without actually believing she'd flip scum when I said I felt the same way about Drew, referring to his push against Invisibility.

I wasn't trying to take the entirety of Firebringer's case and just swap out the names, and I didn't remember I'd apparently quoted the entire post.

Sheep's still scum though.

[Radical Rat]

Semantic satiation

Semantic satiation is a psychological phenomenon in which repetition causes a word or phrase to temporarily lose meaning for the listener, who then perceives the speech as repeated meaningless sounds.


I wonder if this is the same thing when you see a word so often you question if you are even spelling it right.

GeorgeBailey

[Radical Rat]

GeorgeBailey demands everyone submit one player that they would never elim day one.

GeorgeBailey will use this information for research purposes.
Don't need an explanation.

Just need a name.

I submit the name Meuh.
You must submit a name before day ends or face a stern looking GerogeBailey

osuka

[Radical Rat]

Welcome Donempire!

Are you always this fixated on the concept of winning?

[Radical Rat]

Radical Rat do you feel like you've exited your wolfrange

I don't think I really have a "wolfrange," but I can say that if I were scum I'd be on Bingle right now. Assuming Bingle wasn't my lover anyway.

[Radical Rat]

I mean I definitely love Bingle, I'm just nervous he won't like me back, y'know?

[Radical Rat]

If we hit scum, it's going to be relatively low info anyway. We can look a bit closer for signals, but that's contingent on them being correctly received and responded to. Beyond that, the only direct associative we could draw will flip at the same time.

[Radical Rat]

Rat, give it to me straight. Am I the one not making any sense?

I think you make sense, but I also think Ausuka and Meuh are Town.

It's mostly just the vibes, like. I know it means less in this setup, but the interactions feel natural and not manufactured, even though you are correct that the way they're defending each other is weird.

[Radical Rat]

It's why I haven't really been arguing against it, I don't have an argument why you're wrong, I just feel it.

[Radical Rat]

We are reaching the point where we need to start making decisions.

I'd really rather not settle on Bingle, so if you could either sell me on Cook/sheep being Town or join me here, that would be greatly appreciated.

[Radical Rat]

Where's the pocket for squares who don't drink?

[Radical Rat]

I think towwl came on a bit strong with a chainsaw before replacing into Drew, who has since mostly just pushed my townreads with reasons of varying degrees of bad.

Cook herself was mostly fine during RVS, though I don't care for the self-vote, especially since she unvoted without voting anyone else, then mostly faded into the background, with the posts she did make not being very good. Since you've been here, the main thing of note's been the readslist, which... doesn't really do much for me, not least because of the misrepresentation on me. While I've already admitted my post wasn't as clear as I'd thought it was, I still think in context it shouldn't have looked like I was just co-opting Firebringer's case, and framing it that way was deliberate on your end.

Plus, no one seems to be actually townreading or defending you, yet your wagon isn't moving much. I'd expect scum to defend their buddy, but I'd ALSO expect them to be opportunistic here if you weren't their buddy.

So I think your partner (who I am guessing is Drew) is trying not to engage and reinforce the association, while the other pair thinks you're too likely to be scum to actually push, and doesn't want to defend too hard in case you go through.

[Radical Rat]

what are people's read on Black? there was a post that pinged me lemme try to find it

Mild to moderate degrees of scumminess

[Radical Rat]

Please do not sit where you are

[Radical Rat]

Rat, give it to me straight. Am I the one not making any sense?

I think you make sense, but I also think Ausuka and Meuh are Town.

It's mostly just the vibes, like. I know it means less in this setup, but the interactions feel natural and not manufactured, even though you are correct that the way they're defending each other is weird.

We are reaching the point where we need to start making decisions.

I'd really rather not settle on Bingle, so if you could either sell me on Cook/sheep being Town or join me here, that would be greatly appreciated.

I don't really like these two posts. The first one gives me informed vibes and the second feels like a fake sense of urgency to put pressure back on the lim

Informed about what, exactly? Even if I'm scum I don't know what Meuh and Ausuka are unless one of them's my buddy, in which case I'm fully capable of making up a better reason than trust me bro.

[Radical Rat]

So I think your partner (who I am guessing is Drew) is trying not to engage and reinforce the association, while the other pair thinks you're too likely to be scum to actually push, and doesn't want to defend too hard in case you go through

This feels like such a specific worldview to have this early in the game. I guess that's not uncommon but it feels like there's a level of confidence here that doesn't seem natural if RR is town

Nice to meet you, name's Radical Rat.

[Radical Rat]

what are people's read on Black? there was a post that pinged me lemme try to find it

Mild to moderate degrees of scumminess

Elaborate

Later. If you're still alive anyway.

[Radical Rat]

So I think your partner (who I am guessing is Drew) is trying not to engage and reinforce the association, while the other pair thinks you're too likely to be scum to actually push, and doesn't want to defend too hard in case you go through

This feels like such a specific worldview to have this early in the game. I guess that's not uncommon but it feels like there's a level of confidence here that doesn't seem natural if RR is town

Nice to meet you, name's Radical Rat.

Hi! I'm guessing confidence is a characteristic of yours. I think it pings me a little because I'm not a confident town player at all

Only when I think I'm right.

But yeah, it's pretty normal from me. Trying to make it more normal even. Game's more fun that way

[Radical Rat]

I will not be voting Merlyn

[Radical Rat]

Also like, to be clear I have no doubt that sky is genuinely busy and would not be hyperposting as town and this is not about that, but I think the brand of post where you're like "I promise to catch up/give content soon" is like somewhat more likely to come from mafia?

Are you saying this about Sky in particular or about people in general? Because I'm pretty sure I do that a lot more as town because I feel more guilty about not having done more.

I like this string of posts though.

Both tbh in that I think it's generally > rand scum and probably more so for sky based on what I know about them. It's not something that's super reliable and will hit mafia literally one hundred percent of the time but I think it's worth noting.

I will attest that I personally tend to make posts like that more often as scum because I feel more responsible as part of a proper team.

I wouldn't stake a read on it, but I agree with the sentiment

[Radical Rat]

No.

We need to stop starting vanity wagons and make a real decision.

If you don't like any of the real wagons, come up with a better reason for someone else than "Let's flashwagon this!"

All this is doing is splitting up votes and making it more likely we end up with a no lim.

[Radical Rat]

Hey remember when everyone got on my ass because I mentioned compromise and consolidation at three days instead of one?

This shit is why.

[Radical Rat]

I'm exaggerating when I say everyone, but I'm sure there were at least two people.

[Radical Rat]

RR come consolidate on Bingle with me

I will if it must be done, but I still think Bingle's Town.

[Radical Rat]

I'll do Black, or you could sheep me on sheep?

[Radical Rat]

Or Drew, but I don't think there's enough interest there at this point.

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Black

[Radical Rat]

Sheep COULD have a big stack of votes

[Radical Rat]

But I'm fine with Black

[Radical Rat]

Though there is an irony in starting a new-ish wagon while complaining about all the new wagons.

This one'll work though!

[Radical Rat]

Sheep might actually be successfully reverse psychologizing me off of Drew

[Radical Rat]

Alright, I'll call the bluff.

VOTE: Drew

[Radical Rat]

If sheep tries to weasel out of it, we all immediately wagon him, yeah?

[Radical Rat]

Imagine knowing the names of the enemies instead of just going "Ah the fuckin' egg dude"

[Radical Rat]

Game deadline's coming up, and now we're split between Bingle and Drew primarily. As the primary purveyor of Bingle demise, I don't expect you to switch.

But it'd be pretty cool and sexy of you if you did.

[Radical Rat]

About as much as Drew, but it's less enthusiastic

[Radical Rat]

I'm not like. Against eliminating Don, but it's a very nothing burger slot right now, and I'd rather not just pile on that last second when we have much juicier options available. Rather let it simmer and maybe tomorrow depending how things go.

[Radical Rat]

I don't want to just ping pong, but I will be around for deadline, so consider my vote as on both Drew and Black

[Radical Rat]

I agree with you on Black, it's just that I literally just voted and moved from Black, and I don't want to just go back and forth like that because I'm lazy.

[Radical Rat]

Eh, fuck it, but NOW I'm done ping ponging.

VOTE: Black

Still will switch to Drew at deadline if needed though.

[Radical Rat]

If sheep tries to weasel out of it, we all immediately wagon him, yeah?

Firebringer may be giving a degree of plausible deniability but... I see what's happening here and I do not like it.

[Radical Rat]

plausible deniability on what

Giving sheep an excuse to move off Drew, who could be his buddy, after Drew started to actually look viable.

[Radical Rat]

plausible deniability on what

Giving sheep an excuse to move off Drew, who could be his buddy, after Drew started to actually look viable.

this tunnel is legitimately one of the wolfiest tunnels ive ever witnessed it's so fuckin weird

It's not a tunnel. I have three people I suspect as being scum, and you're one of them. Against my better judgement, I'm not even voting you right now.

I am prone to tunneling. This is not that.

[Radical Rat]

I was the first to push drew before it was cool and was always down to vote their I think we look pretty unpaired

Only true for the recent wagon, and only when it appeared as though it wasn't a viable wagon.

[Radical Rat]

Okay I did actually forget you voted for a bit earlier, that's my bad.

I still think it was performative after you knew Drew's momentum had fizzled, but I'll admit it's... not as strong as I thought it was.

[Radical Rat]

I am performing. Considerations.

[Radical Rat]

I’m pretty sure no one shoots lurker sky here, so the kill was probs on Meuh. There’s no way I ever make that kill. Ausuka prolly doesn’t want to kill the slot that’s buddying defending her. Not sure about other people.

I was pushing for a meuh lim. Fire pushed for a black lim. Clear as can be imo

You're aware that neither you nor Fire would have been aware of Meuh being scum OR Black being Town, right?

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Donempire

The more I sit on it, the more I don't like this. Bellaphant unfortunately didn't give us much to go on, but Don never actually voted Meuh, though he did express a willingness, with his actual vote going to Firebringer until the hammer.

In light of that, it is apparent to me that "I wanted Meuh, Firebringer wanted Black" is a bad faith argument, and even if this setup weren't designed so scum have limited information, Black was never a counterwagon to either Meuh or Firebringer, she was a counterwagon to Bingle, so the argument really only works on the most superficial level possible.

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Donempire

The more I sit on it, the more I don't like this. Bellaphant unfortunately didn't give us much to go on, but Don never actually voted Meuh, though he did express a willingness, with his actual vote going to Firebringer until the hammer.

In light of that, it is apparent to me that "I wanted Meuh, Firebringer wanted Black" is a bad faith argument, and even if this setup weren't designed so scum have limited information, Black was never a counterwagon to either Meuh or Firebringer, she was a counterwagon to Bingle, so the argument really only works on the most superficial level possible.

You might be correct in assessing FB couldn't have known meuh was scum, and in fact might have been hoping for a town!meuh flip, as it would make me look suspicious for pushing her, but you can't possibly reason that i would kill meuh after scumreading her to this extent. I also wouldn't have killed skygazer, because it makes no sense to kill a lurker in a game with one pr and where scum have the ability to find said pr.

I mean, why couldn't you just be lying about scumreading Meuh? Which is kinda my point with you trying to take credit for pushing her, but only ever voting Firebringer instead?

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Donempire

The more I sit on it, the more I don't like this. Bellaphant unfortunately didn't give us much to go on, but Don never actually voted Meuh, though he did express a willingness, with his actual vote going to Firebringer until the hammer.

In light of that, it is apparent to me that "I wanted Meuh, Firebringer wanted Black" is a bad faith argument, and even if this setup weren't designed so scum have limited information, Black was never a counterwagon to either Meuh or Firebringer, she was a counterwagon to Bingle, so the argument really only works on the most superficial level possible.

i think donempire is just stupid.
scum don't make these asine arguments of "ohh well obviously fire is scum because he townread a scum and pushed a townie". Scum would be smarter than that to know that they don't know the other team so me not reading meuh correctly obviously means nothing because even if im scum i have no way of knowing meuh was scum and if i did that means i killed her.

Which i think there is an argument that i would kill my heaviest townread in the game so i think that is a fair point to raise and argue but not the argument he is making here.

It's just as asinine an argument for Town to make though, but in this case it's like he's trying to take credit for something he didn't actually do.

[Radical Rat]

Looking back, it seems like the main people Meuh didn't want to lim even toward the end would have been Invisibility, Firebringer, and Bulge.

Obviously the Bulge read was genuine, since that's where she shot, but it seems plausible that Meuh thought at least one of Invisibility/Firebringer was scum. She was explicitly okay with, and campaigning for, Drew and Bingle, so those were probably her townreads.

That comes with the caveat of Meuh not actually KNOWING of course, but I think we can treat this similarly to a Townie's legacy reads.

Unfortunately, I don't really think I agree much with those reads, except still leaning Town on Bingle, so I don't really have a point to make here like I thought I would when I started.

[Radical Rat]

Ausuka I don't think ever kills Meuh here, so I'm gonna double down on that townread.

[Radical Rat]

I'm thinking my pool today would be Drew/Sheep/Don/Umlaut.

Of those, I feel the best about Don or Sheep.

[Radical Rat]

You're aware that neither you nor Fire would have been aware of Meuh being scum OR Black being Town, right?

Assuming you're including my bit here in the question: I think it's fairly obvious that I AT LEAST genuinely thought Meuh might be scum and ALSO I had no reason to shoot a slot that I could simply keep pushing due to her lack of push on me. There's just no reason for me to make that kill over kills that are much safer and less likely to flip a buddy, like say... Invis or FB, both of whom actually voted me for large parts of yesterday.

Similarly, Ausuka doesn't stand to benefit from killing townMeuh, because Meuh was defending Ausuka hard. Scum doesn't generally fancy shooting their own major supporters. Scumsuka wouldn't want to kill scumMeuh or townMeuh, so Scumsuka likely doesn't exist.

SkyG being the kill makes less sense because no one was townreading her and she wasn't pushing anyone. That would be a fucking awful shot.

No, I just meant Don's bit. I agree that it's unlikely you or Ausuka would have shot Meuh in these circumstances, and while theoretically anybody could have shot Skygazer, I think scum would have rather kept them around, so I agree Meuh was likely the target.

[Radical Rat]

Lol, never would have guessed Meuh was scum from all the wagon hopping at the end of the day

Don't remember your vote reflecting that bit of wisdom my dear doctor

Well I was dealing with a bit of self preservation, admittedly.....but I don't think there was a big wave of support to lim Meuh yesterday, even after I posted the quotes of them vote hopping.

Hindsight and all, but after their flip it did seem pretty obvious in retrospect.

Could it be you're feeling killer's remorse?

[Radical Rat]

If I were to guess, I'd say both scum pairs probably would have gone one on/one off, but I don't want to be building cases off of that assumption

[Radical Rat]

osuka/Bingle is TvT though. You're both just talking past each other and it's not getting us anywhere.

[Radical Rat]

I believe I talked before about their early recklessness not likely to come from scum in this setup, and then they dumbtelled forgetting the setup by questioning why I would wait for two scum to flip, which... osuka strikes me as being too egotistical to fake a mistake like that, and obviously would be more conscious of it as scum.

[Radical Rat]

In good faith? No. Coming from scum? Also no. I think he's in a really silly tunnel and is twisting things to fit his bias.

[Radical Rat]

He's like a YouTube commenter

[Radical Rat]

He's like a YouTube commenter

ouch

this hurts more than my head hurts right now and i have like a cataclysmic hangover

It's meant with love

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

[Radical Rat]

Does it matter why? What's done is done, and what's Don is Town. There's no real reason to interrogate this right now

[Radical Rat]

I take offense to that

[Radical Rat]

With Don out, my PoE is three people (Drew/Sheep/Umlaut), which means we can just... go down the list, really. Though my PoE is not the same as everyone else's, it does seem like Umlaut is a common factor, and he's been making me increasingly nervous, so.

VOTE: Umlaut

[Radical Rat]

Because I think he's more likely to break character as Town, and I believe him about thinking Don was IC early.

[Radical Rat]

Scum already shot themselves, it's only fair if we do too

[Radical Rat]

Realized I never really talked about WHY Umlaut's been making me nervous this game, but basically it is a known weakness of mine that I am reluctant to scumread people townreading me, and make a pretty good pocket if you can get to me early, and there are several posts where it feels like Umlaut's laying it on a bit thick.

But then there's another post that lightly shades me for a peculiar reason that's just been festering paranoia since I read it, but had my focus on other targets...

[Radical Rat]

It's weird that RR and I are at odds like this, most of our games I'm nodding my head along with everything they post but I really don't see the Bingle case and think Ausuka is a fine yeet.

I could compromise on Cook, she has made essentially no impression at all on me this game which is a good enough reason for a day 1 choice.

My problems here are twofold. I have no idea what we were "at odds" about for one, but also I'm pretty sure the most recent game we were in together was Chrono Trigger where I literally got Umlaut mislimmed as Town because I pulled a poorly thought out fake Cop gambit out of my ass, so to hear that it's weird he isn't nodding along with me is... well, a bit weird.

[Radical Rat]

Damn it, I think I believe you.
I'll probably have to put in actual work and do ISOs later huh?

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Doctor Drew

I am landing here again. Or sheep.

Umlaut I will settle on, but the last few posts have the Town scent on them, so I don't prefer him.

[Radical Rat]

Is Drew even a real doctor?

[Radical Rat]

towwl was really bad, looked like an early chainsaw for Cook, the argument for Invisibility trying to signal scum was one I find unlikely to have been sincere, and then today he seemed real bummed about Meuh, feels almost like he's apologizing for shooting her.

[Radical Rat]

Well, it was cult and not Mafia, but in Grand Idea he lied about having an impossible role, and successfully bullshitted his way out of it when I called him out, in part because "scum would be more careful than that"

So I don't really put anything past him

[Radical Rat]

Lol, never would have guessed Meuh was scum from all the wagon hopping at the end of the day

Don't remember your vote reflecting that bit of wisdom my dear doctor

Well I was dealing with a bit of self preservation, admittedly.....but I don't think there was a big wave of support to lim Meuh yesterday, even after I posted the quotes of them vote hopping.

Hindsight and all, but after their flip it did seem pretty obvious in retrospect.

Could it be you're feeling killer's remorse?

I am feeling remorse I didn't push them more at the end of the day, but again..... hindsight.

Pre Edit: Oh no, the Whiskey Pocket is imploding

I'll admit I didn't remember it being prompted by Merlyn, but the thing about it being obvious in hindsight kinda struck me as odd, especially after posturing like you knew it all along.

[Radical Rat]

Also I MIGHT have accidentally missed the sarcasm in 1192...

[Radical Rat]

I'll hammer if the will is there, but I'll be grumpy about it

[Radical Rat]

I hope our next GeorgeBailey meme is the classic "bear with me" post

[Radical Rat]

Sorry was busy in the whiskey pocket shooting off my finger, try to be more active shortly

I hope you finger is okay, despite being scum

[Radical Rat]

merlyn/invis<umlaut<osuka/drew current poe???????????

Why are you voting for Invisibility then? Should you not be joining me on Drew?

[Radical Rat]

If it's flipped, then I'm confused about the Merlyn defense

[Radical Rat]

Clock's ticking, but I really don't want to lim osuka.

[Radical Rat]

If we eliminate Drew instead, I pinky promise to vote osuka tomorrow if he flips Town.

[Radical Rat]

If we eliminate Drew instead, I pinky promise to vote osuka tomorrow if he flips Town.

[Radical Rat]

Ugh. There's no other way out of this is there?

I'll hammer by deadline, but until then if anyone wants to pile on Drew, by all means, feel free

[Radical Rat]

Fine. It's obvious nothing's gonna change at this point. Hopefully I just come out of this looking like an idiot for defending him.

VOTE: osuka

o7

[Radical Rat]

So, I’m pretty sure Rat and osuka aren’t S/S. I don’t think they mutually townread each other if they are.

Did I not just hammer?

[Radical Rat]

In my defense, I am stupid.

[Radical Rat]

That would be very funny of me. Take advantage of my historical inability to get people to listen when I'm right

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: Doctor Drew

I'm not compromising this time. May move if the case is right, but today is officially a Follow My Heart day, and right now the heart says Drew

[Radical Rat]

So I don't have access to my computer right now, and I am... not really excited for multiple tabs of cross referencing ISOs and VCs on mobile.

So I'll do my homework, but it won't be ready until sometime around Thursday/Friday probably

[Radical Rat]

I'm here, sorry. Don't really have much to say until I can get to my computer, which was supposed to be today, but is apparently not anymore.

If it takes too much longer, I'll try to do it from my phone anyway, but it might be sloppily formatted

[Radical Rat]

For context, my air conditioner is broken, and I live in Texas. So it's been upwards of 90 degrees inside my home, including the room that holds my computer, and that's just... not happening, for both my safety and my computer's. We bought a portable air conditioner to cool off a room and make it survivable, but that room is not my room.

[Radical Rat]

Alright, air conditioner should be getting fixed tomorrow, which should restore computer access and I'll be able to do the homework.

Though also this is the third time they've "fixed" it, so. If it doesn't work this time I'll just do it from mobile anyway, but won't be able to properly pick out quotes and such.

Either way though, it's getting done tomorrow night, and I'm willing to be held to that

[Radical Rat]

Air conditioner does seem to have been successfully fixed, so by tonight my room should have cooled enough for me to use my computer and do the homework!

[Radical Rat]

Alright, my house is only 82 degrees instead of 95 now, I can actually stand to be in this room, so let's get to business

[Radical Rat]

I've got COVID (no, not AtE, I would have COVID whether I was scum or town) and I don't know know how to solve the game anyway. VOTE: Dr. Drew and maybe I'll come back later.

I've had it twice, and it sucks. I hope you feel better soon.

[Radical Rat]

I'm working on the big post with all the homework. Estimated about a third of the way through, miiiiight have to finish in the morning, but I should at least be able to finish sheep's pairs.

[Radical Rat]

Spoiler: Sheep Shearing (and Cook)

Spoiler: Sheep(and Cook)/Firebringer

61 is the first thing to jump out at me. An innocent joke, or hyperawareness of partnership?

80's an interesting vote. It looks slightly chainsawish, but I don't think it actually is, since towwl didn't ACTUALLY vote. Probably Firebringer picking up on the same vibes I did instead.

Nothing much of note for the rest of Cook's existence.

701 is a pseudo readslist with no Firebringer present. I'd have expected some comment about the GeorgeBailey era, but I think complete omission means sheep just wasn't thinking much about him, which points toward being unaligned.

752 I probably would think is partnery, if it weren't for the Lovers aspect. Reads kinda like the hedging you do when you don't want to push a partner, but also want credit if they go over anyway, but obviously you don't need credit if you're gonna die together anyway, so it's another point against the team for me.

778/779 if we're assuming that Firebringer is scum here, this seems almost like signaling a kill to avoid the double target, which would be too risky to do on a partner I think in case the other pair interprets it as they should be shooting sheep. And of course if we assume Firebringer is Town, it doesn't mean anything at all.

992 is the first instance of sheep actively opposing a Firebringer elimination.

1328-1331 reads like sheep trying to leech off Firebringer's towncred. Not very partnery.

1482 is probably the most likely to indicate partners here... very sus moment.

I don't think 1534 looks like theater.

And I think that's about everything relevant.

Final conclusions: Yeah, this isn't super likely, cross it off the list. I think D1 almost looks like sheep thought Firebringer was on the other scum pair sometimes, but I really don't see them as paired together. This is also a lot more work than I thought it was going to be though, so I don't think I'm gonna do this post-by-post breakdown thing again unless there's something really spicy in there.

Spoiler: Sheep(and Cook)/Ausuka

RVS interaction was sketchy as hell, and Ausuka moved her vote immediately after I put Cook at E-1. Not a great start.

Only other interaction with Cook until the replacement was a very weak push on Cook "feeling like it'll be a mislim" that was immediately dropped, and sheep quotes the exchange to laugh at it during catch up. Sheep quoting seems perhaps a bit too blatant, but idk. Weird vibes regardless.

For the rest, there's not much direct interaction, but quite a few townreads dropped, some minor hedging by Ausuka, and a handful of vote alignments.

Final conclusions: Very plausible. The only thing stopping me from giving it a "Likely" rating is that I don't think a team with Ausuka on it kills Meuh, but it is possible that either Skygazer was the real shot or Ausuka thought Meuh was Town and knew killing her would give towncred. I'd vote sheep first if this ends up being the proposed solve though.

Spoiler: Sheep(and Cook)/Drew(and towwl)

This is it. The big one. My white whale. But does it hold up to actual effort? Tune in to find out!

Cross vote in RVS, an easy start for perfomative distancing, but not really substantial.

63/64 is the chainsaw that started it all. A hollow expression of a desire to vote, followed instead by voting the most recent person on that very wagon. Easily the scummiest interaction we've looked at so far, and worthy of me putting in post tag effort again.

A lot of overexplaining the Ausuka vote, and then towwl's gone. Drew has literally zero interaction with Cook, and only mentions her once in the context of someone else's vote.

Sheep does mention wanting to kill Drew upon arrival, and does vote after catching up. This would be the origin of sheep's later claim that he "wanted to kill Drew before it was cool," but crucially there isn't really an actual threat to Drew yet. For Drew's part, he expresses a townread on sheep, and claims to not know who he replaced. It's easily fakeable, but I will be putting this on the "unaligned" pile.

Sheep is actually consistently on Drew more than I remembered, only taking a brief hop off for Skygazer before coming back on and staying. He has a rather strong OMGUS on me, but never tries to direct me onto Drew, which I think would be a natural defense since I'm proclaiming to scumread them together, or move onto me which I'd kinda expect from an OMGUS like that? Drew seems completely unbothered by the vote and continues to defend sheep as Town. I think this comes out looking more aligned than not D1, as was my original assessment.

D2, Drew tries to suggest sheep and I could be aligned, but isn't willing to commit to a scumread and reiterates that sheep especially is Town.

1441 isn't the kind of thing I'd expect one to point out about a partner, but he doesn't follow through with it. He does vote Drew again when prodded to though.

Sheep votes Drew with me at the start of D3, but doesn't stick around.

Also worth noting that there were multiple point throughout the game where sheep explicitly said "I don't think we look paired" and similar such phrases. Seemed very self-conscious about it.

Final conclusions: Plausible. But there's moments of doubt. I think I still favor it is as my solve though.

Spoiler: Sheep(and Cook)/Merlyn

Basically nothing before Cook's replacement, aside from a throwaway comment not understanding the wagon.

After the dawn of the age of sheep, still very little direct interaction, but both occasionally drop comments townreading each other and opposing eliminations...

Until 1460 when suddenly he's okay with killing Merlyn, but then doesn't vote and turns around with 1532, which looks almost like begging a doomed buddy to save themselves? And in the following poe list, she's at the bottom, but actually the top, but actually actually shouldn't be at the top anyway. It's weird. And Merlyn is not voted during this exchange.

And then there's a naked vote on Merlyn today, and that's all.

Final conclusions: Likely. If I set aside my personal biases and hopes for my D1 solve to be correct, this is like. Exactly the kind of thing I'd expect to see from a scum pair. I'd been mostly townreading Merlyn on vibes, but this is definitely making me question that.

Final final conclusions: 3/4 of the teams with sheep look viable to me, which... isn't great. Obviously they can't all be true though. In a vacuum, I'd say sheep/Merlyn looks the worst, but sheep/Drew fits my existing reads the best (a shocking revelation, I know). Among the viable wagons, sheep/Drew is the least likely on paper though, and I am forced to admit this. I won't be getting the Drew lim I initially wanted as a result.

Spoiler: Umlaut? More like SCUMlaut

Coming Soon!

[Radical Rat]

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

Just in case I don't get around to doing Umlaut's in time, this is where I'm predicting to end up at present.

[Radical Rat]

I overslept on account of being in a bed again. Will get to work after food

[Radical Rat]

Spoiler: Umlaut? More like SCUMlaut, but for real this time

Spoiler: Umlaut/Invisibility

137 is a soft defense early on, and seems to be taking an RVS-adjacent vote too seriously.

And then there's absolutely nothing until over a thousand posts later when Invisibility drops a vote in 1293. I think this is a good unaligned vote though, because while there's no actual threat to Umlaut, there's also no real incentive to suddenly start distancing after ignoring each other so long. It feels just like a natural observation and push.

Invisibility questioning Umlaut's confidence that we win while being wagoned is interesting. Normally I'd say it's not an argument I expect from a buddy, BUT in this case it's in refutation to Umlaut being kinda-sorta okay with dying, which obviously one of them would have to push back on, but also also Invisibility doesn't actually unvote until Don explains why Umlaut is right, so... I don't think that's what was happening, and I'm choosing to take this at face value.

And that's everything.
Final conclusion: Probably not. There's not really a lot to go off of, but if they are partnered, they're not very coordinated about it. Seems like genuine apathy on Umlaut's part, and Invisibility doesn't seem to have any insight on Umlaut's thinking.

Spoiler: Umlaut/Drew(and towwl)

Umlaut joins the early towwl wagon, despite this particular push being on a very shaky foundation. +5 unaligned points.

Nothing else happens with towwl, and then once Drew shows up they go into talking about alcohol. Umlaut does not unvote yet.

Umalut doesn't like Drew's Invisibility push, agrees with my post dissecting why it's bad, and then... unvotes. Curious.

Scotch/Whiskey Pocket is formalized soon after.

669, aside from being nice, is kinda weird. Why attach it to Umlaut's post? Vague shading, despite professing a strong townread already? I don't know if it's aligned, but it's weird.

End of the day though, Umlaut joins on Drew, and it has serious potential at this moment to actually go through, so that's a pretty strong indicator against alignment...
But then doesn't actually stay long enough for it to matter. Hm.

Drew gathering doubts D2 feels like preparing for a real push, but that push never actually materializes beyond a sharp drop in reads list position.

Umlaut starts lightly defending Drew a bit, and eventually they both converge onto osuka, who we know flipped Town, and that's all we've got.

Final conclusions: Possible, but not feeling it. There's definitely some weirdness happening here, but it could just as easily be Drew trying to pocket as it could be actual alignment. At some points I actually started suspecting a Drew/Bingle team, and I wasn't even looking for that. Interested in what comes up there if Merlyn and/or Umlaut turn in their work on time.

Spoiler: Umlaut/Ausuka

Ausuka seems to ignore Umlaut's question in 230. Wouldn't expect that from a buddy.

Umlaut votes on a Not Town Enough basis, Bingle and Drew are the main wagons at the time. Ausuka DOES respond to this, and Umlaut reaffirms the vote.

Umlaut encourages Drew after joining on Ausuka. Seems to be genuine will for the wagon going.

Umlaut stays on Ausuka until I make a move to start another Cook wagon.

Ausuka backs Merlyn's reads list which has her high and Umlaut low, then offers a PoE including Umlaut in it. Seems self-serving, trying to attach to Merlyn.

Umlaut pushes back pretty hard against Ausuka going for Skygazer. I don't think it looks theatrical.

Ausuka joins the Umlaut wagon D2, then later abandons it for Merlyn when the momentum starts to fizzle.

Umlaut joins on Merlyn, leading wagon at the time, prompted by the realization Firebringer probably would have shot Don. I think this is the only time so far their votes have lined up?

They don't talk about or interact with each other much, but the votes do again converge on osuka, which Ausuka immediately calls out as opportunistic, but doesn't go any further than that.

The only team Ausuka has to rule on with Umlaut in it is given "possible, but not much compelling evidence" which is kinda hedgy, but eh.

And we're done.

Final conclusions: Nah. The clashes all feel real, there's never any attempt to defuse pressure, and often they add momentum to each other's wagons, so if they are paired, they're playing it very dangerously.

Spoiler: Umlaut/Bingle

230 is somewhat awkward, and Umlaut will basically go on to defend Bingle for the rest of the day if I'm remembering the last three times correctly.

I think the interactions surrounding Bulge look natural.

648 has Umlaut in the fairly safe null tier.

In 826 Bingle offers a noncommittal townread, tempered by a request to keep Umlaut out of Elo if Bingle's eliminated. This could definitely be a partner thing, because it creates distance in a safe manner, while also asserting Umlaut is playing towny. Obviously, if Bingle/Umlaut are aligned, and Bingle gets eliminated, any suggestions about what to do with Umlaut are meaningless because they're both dead. It's also a strange take given Umlaut's consistent defense of him, though I know during Team Mafia Jingle said he had a tendency to scumread people townreading him, so... maybe it is genuine?

Umlaut continues expressing townreads on Bingle, indicates a willingness to compromise if necessary, but a distaste for it.

And then start of D2 Umlaut suddenly starts advocating for Bingle's death based on trying to force traditional wagon analysis into a game where it doesn't apply. My instinct is that it seems serious, and isn't what you'd want to do to a partner at day start, BUT... if Umlaut KNOWS the wagon analysis take is bad, and is starting the wagon with a deliberately bad reason... Huge big brain play? And also the fact that this pivot happens after one scum pair flips and pulling off effective distancing is just as good as a clear... I know it's tinfoily, but damn would it be cool if it's real.

Bingle votes osuka, but does complain about Umlaut.

But then if Umlaut is just pushing Bingle as a 9000 IQ red herring and doesn't actually want it to go through, I don't see why he'd back me up on my assertion of osuka being Town...

Umlaut finally moves off of Bingle to sheep Don, which is an incredibly weak reason.

Interestingly, throughout all of this, Bingle never actually votes for Umlaut in return, despite (or perhaps because of?) the wagon growing to a very reasonable size.

And then they both end up on osuka anyway.

1747 is VERY interesting to me, because Bingle points out that Umlaut saying I look Town but being paranoid is a "textbook buddy read," going on about the benefits of doing so... when that's literally exactly what Bingle said about Umlaut D1 with 826 as I covered earlier.

I do have hesitancy with regard to Bingle landing on an Umlaut vote though. It could be performative, knowing that votes now don't mean too much as we're likely to just kinda dictate a wagon later when more analyses come in, and the gamestate does necessitate that scum take some risks here, but it does give me some pause. It could be an interesting way to cast doubt on me, but why not just... do that then?

I think that covers it, this one's been rather meaty.

Final conclusions: Plausible. It's a tinfoil theory, but I believe it's a scheme they could reasonably come up with. I'd probably be interested in pursuing this if sheep ends up green.

Final final conclusions: Umlaut/Bingle's the only one that really has a spark for me, and it's a real juicy pairing, but it has enough holes that it doesn't supplant my existing reads. I'd vote Umlaut as a backup, but it doesn't seem like an ideal choice today. Maybe tomorrow if tomorrow happens.

[Radical Rat]

Glad I was able to get that out in time, and will now be taking questions, as well as offering one of my own.


@Bingle

1747 is VERY interesting to me, because Bingle points out that Umlaut saying I look Town but being paranoid is a "textbook buddy read," going on about the benefits of doing so... when that's literally exactly what Bingle said about Umlaut D1 with 826 as I covered earlier.

Do you perceive there as being a difference between your version of this and the one you accuse Umlaut of? If so, what is that difference?

[Radical Rat]

I dunno

umlaut changing his mind from pushing me hard => calling me villa also felt more likely town cuz I feel liek a make-or-break lim this game

im like, limmable but towny player

wolves win the game by pushing me hard enough to get my lim over the line in the end. especially umlaut who might not make it to endgame needs to keep me in his poe

So we should eliminate you NOW, before it's actually make or break, yeah?

[Radical Rat]

I'm tempted to guess bingle's partner for the glory but there's no point since they're lovers so fuck it

If you guess his partner's Drew, I'll go for it

[Radical Rat]

Somehow I had it in my head we were on evens. Didn't realize we actually have three more chances instead of two.

I would still much rather eliminate IN my PoE though.

[Radical Rat]

RR i control + f'd drew in your iso and I didn't find why you are scumreading him past the first half of day 1. Did i miss something

I'm certain I've talked about him more than that, though it does often revolve around early stuff. I probably didn't have his name in the actual posts if I was responding to people, and may or may not have been diligent about quoting.

[Radical Rat]

Spoiler: A compilation of times I pointed out reasons to scumread Drew on Day 2

Lol, never would have guessed Meuh was scum from all the wagon hopping at the end of the day

Don't remember your vote reflecting that bit of wisdom my dear doctor

Well I was dealing with a bit of self preservation, admittedly.....but I don't think there was a big wave of support to lim Meuh yesterday, even after I posted the quotes of them vote hopping.

Hindsight and all, but after their flip it did seem pretty obvious in retrospect.

Could it be you're feeling killer's remorse?

I am feeling remorse I didn't push them more at the end of the day, but again..... hindsight.

Pre Edit: Oh no, the Whiskey Pocket is imploding

I'll admit I didn't remember it being prompted by Merlyn, but the thing about it being obvious in hindsight kinda struck me as odd, especially after posturing like you knew it all along.

Well, it was cult and not Mafia, but in Grand Idea he lied about having an impossible role, and successfully bullshitted his way out of it when I called him out, in part because "scum would be more careful than that"

So I don't really put anything past him

towwl was really bad, looked like an early chainsaw for Cook, the argument for Invisibility trying to signal scum was one I find unlikely to have been sincere, and then today he seemed real bummed about Meuh, feels almost like he's apologizing for shooting her.

Lol, never would have guessed Meuh was scum from all the wagon hopping at the end of the day

Don't remember your vote reflecting that bit of wisdom my dear doctor

Well I was dealing with a bit of self preservation, admittedly.....but I don't think there was a big wave of support to lim Meuh yesterday, even after I posted the quotes of them vote hopping.

Hindsight and all, but after their flip it did seem pretty obvious in retrospect.

Could it be you're feeling killer's remorse?

Yeah, I'd say you missed a few

[Radical Rat]

That's also just from D2, there's more of me somewhat sloppily pushing associatives with sheep toward the end of D1

[Radical Rat]

assuming random eliminations through the rest of the game - the scum win rate is 33% [7/9][5/7][3/5] -> [1/3]

The scum strategy is to gradually shape thread control - build apathy - and not make enough ripples to win

Everything Bingle is doing is towards these ends - he is not a townie who is looking for one scum in 8 players to try to win - he is trying to cross the t's and dot the i's and writing up a long PHD thesis on how to play theoretic 8-d Chess Mafia which is basically just busywork and meant to look impressive without actually accomplishing a damn thing.

This is Professor Doom Mad Scientist Scumlord Bingle.

Actually this whole homework scheme was your (Umlaut's) idea.

[Radical Rat]

Counterproposal:

Let's lim sheep, and/or Drew, and we can do the Batman vs. Bear 1v1 tomorrow if tomorrow if tomorrow happens.

[Radical Rat]

Okay, but I'm feeling PRETTY sure on sheep right now, but I'm afraid I'll be able to be talked out of it if the game's actually on the line, so I'd like to push it through BEFORE that happens.

[Radical Rat]

Okay, but I'm feeling PRETTY sure on sheep right now, but I'm afraid I'll be able to be talked out of it if the game's actually on the line, so I'd like to push it through BEFORE that happens.

ur read is shit

Perhaps. There's an easy way to find out though.

[Radical Rat]

I think there's a solid possibility of this being TvT with Pooky just latching onto a hero solve and confbiasing his way into this hole, and an outside chance he's actually right and we're all being played for fools, but like.

If Datisi descended from the heavens and said one of them MUST be scum, gun to head I'd go for Pooky.

He's hyperfocusing on a specific aspect that I don't think actually aligns with the reality of the situation, and Bingle's defense pretty much matches my perception of events.

So here's my thing. A hypothetical sheep townflip forces me to reevaluate the game as I presently understand it, and in the event that I'm wrong, I want that opportunity to reevaluate. I don't want to be stuck with sheep in ELo, and ESPECIALLY not both sheep and Drew.

If this Bingle/Pooky 1v1 absolutely MUST be resolved today, I will vote for Pooky. But I won't follow through onto Bingle until after I have an answer on sheep.

I will alternatively move to Drew, who is tied into my sheep read and would also be a place I looked for a partner if I knew that I were wrong about Bingle, so it would serve to either win, or provide context that actually helps me solve after.

Unfortunately, either Pooky or Bingle flipping green... leaves me in the exact same spot I'm at now. It just wastes a day eliminating a townread, just like we did yesterday with osuka, and I don't want to do that again.

So.

VOTE: Doctor Drew
Anyone for hammer?

[Radical Rat]

Tbf most of ur post applies from pooky’s POV in the form “a bingle townflip forces me to reevaluate the game whereas anything else leaves him in the exact same place he is now

Yeah, but also Pooky's not the only one capable of hammering. The appeal was not to him specifically, it was an explanation of why I don't want to engage in the 1v1, and why I would prefer voting Drew (or you, but not enough time at this point), for anyone who would listen and be willing to follow.

[Radical Rat]

B(

[Radical Rat]

Ugh, fine. Better this than no lim VOTE: Bingle

it would be legendary if Pooky is right

Why did you switch when we already had a hammer lined up for Drew?

[Radical Rat]

sheep, I owe you an apology.

Drew, everyone else owes me an apology.

But nah, this was a super fun setup, and we got there in the end. The idea of splitting the scumteam creates a super interesting dynamic here, and as much as I was correct about Drew, I don't know that I would have gotten to Meuh or Skygazer the same way.

[Radical Rat]

Thanks to Datisi for modding!