Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[Cobblerfone]

It’s been so long. I don’t even know the current nickname of the situation where if the town doesn’t execute someone they lose. is it exlo? xlo? (execute or lose?)

VOTE: puffalicious

two players and no posts yet? Suspicious

[Cobblerfone]

According to the wiki its ELo/LiLo (Eliminate/Lim or lose)
Had to look up some of the new terms myself too lol.

Play too much chess that elo means something else to me. LiLo is quite the creative attempt at preserving the old pronunciation. Though in my brain i want to pronounce it differently from how i pronounced the old version.

i think i personally prefer xlo or ylo (yeet or lose), but will use elo if that’s what everyone else uses

[Cobblerfone]

With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

[Cobblerfone]

With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

What is there to respond to? I just said that to get attention going, nothing that serious.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by "get attention going" and your motive for doing so? Or by "nothing that serious" are you claiming it was tongue-in-cheek?

[Cobblerfone]

Cobblerfone, could you elaborate on what you mean when you say you doubt Puff is mafia due to statistical reasons?

there's a 7/9 chance that the first big wagon of the day is town. I'm town and was the third vote. If Kyouko is town, she'd have a 2/9 chance of voting mafia on day one. If she were puff's partner, she could "randomly" vote informedly to distance, but considering their interactions so far I doubt they are mafia together unless Kyouko has a history of bussing

[Cobblerfone]

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

Is this post trying to imply you have a scumread on Kyouko? Why?

No, between Kyouko and Puff, Puff is more suspicious. I have a mostly town read on Kyouko. If Kyouko had backed off of Puff I would have been strongly suspicious of them both, but see my previous post. (sorry for the confusing order, I guess I should click the older notifications first?)

[Cobblerfone]

Hmmmmmmmm...

While I think Puff's death could give us the most information (i.e. if they flip mafia then Crabapple and Mizuki seem more like mafia trying to apply pressure elsewhere and if they flip town Crabapple and Mizuki hopping off the bandwagon makes them look townier), Puff's recent posts feel like they come from town to me, especially A's. I think the wagon has produced adequate info. Combined with the the statistical chance previously explained, I think scum's more likely to be laying low.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

All their posts have been low content so far.

[Cobblerfone]

With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

Why is kyouko scum individually?

That's part of the reason I unvoted Puff. I have a townread on Kyouko and if she's town she and I are both more likely to have randomly voted for town than for mafia. 2/9 * 2/9 = 4/81 chance of mafia

Why are you misrepresenting my reads?

[Cobblerfone]

I'll quote Gamma but this is as much as for Thomith's and Mizuki's benefit as well as my own. Perhaps I haven't been clear in my expressing my reasoning. Part of the problem is that there's a certain ancient history blog I've gotten into reading that really encourages Bayesian reasoning

There’s a 7/9 chance of anyone being town? That statistic argument would just paralyze any action if taken to a logical extreme.

These odds aren’t really sensical. The odds of a town player voting mafia should be stated as 2/8 since if trying to hit mafia, they would never vote themselves.
Also, I think this argument just assumes too much. You could apply a statistical argument to any slot to call it town.
This results in me thinking there has to be something more to your thinking which is where the kyouko SR idea came in. It didn’t help you suggested bussing out of nowhere.

True I forgot about no one voting for themself (well, it

is

RVS, so someone might vote for themself, but such a vote can hardly be called "random".)

Kyouko's vote was the first RVS vote and it was made in the second post. Made with no information from anyone. It was therefore completely arbitrary, IF Kyouko is town. An arbitrary (functionally random) vote has a 6/8 chance of being town. Admittedly 3/4 is a bit less comfy than 7/9, but for a day-one assessment when combined with somewhat town-ish responses, it's probably good enough. Especially since my vote was also somewhat arbitrary.

Where the idea of Kyouko being mafia comes from is in the idea of Puff being mafia. If Kyouko is town and Puff is mafia, that's only a 1/4 chance (admittedly it sounded more impressive at 2/9). But if Kyouko is mafia, then the odds of Kyouko voting mafia with no information is 100% because mafia know who mafia is and therefore

cannot

randomly vote mafia. Although it has occurred to me that I have forgotten to take prior odds into account So if Puff flipped mafia:

The prior odds of Kyouko being town given that Puff is mafia is 7/8. The prior odds of Kyouko being mafia given that Puff is Mafia is 1/8 (I'm not sure I've done this right).

The odds of Kyouko voting mafia as town are 7/8 * 2/8 = 14/64

The odds of Kyouko voting mafia as mafia are 1/8 * 8/8 = 8/64

Hmm... It seems my original reasoning is faulty. The ratio of the odds means Kyouko is no more likelier to be mafia than town even if Puff is mafia. I stand corrected. I think. I am amateur at this. Of course, since Kyouko was giving townvibes anyway that was making me think Puff was probably town. But now I'm not sure, 1/4 isn't exactly miraculous. Ugh. I think the numbers 2/9 were making me two confident because 2 feels "small" (after all it's only one more than one) and 9 feels "big" (after all it's only one fewer than 10). I still think Puff is probably town because my vote was mostly arbitrary though admittedly not "no information" since I was one of the last to confirm and several RVS votes had been made. Not very good information, but still not a completely blank slate. So that random event combined with Kyouko's random event, because I think she's town, means Puff is probably town. Especially because their posts haven't been outright scummy.

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

VOTE: gamma

What changed your mind on her between these two posts?

[Cobblerfone]

@Cobblerfone, we have your thoughts on Kyouko and Puff, what are your thoughts on the other players in this game?

Admittedly you remind me of my scum IC in my first newbie game on the site. Way back long ago. So you give me scum vibes, but I'm actively choosing to ignore them, because I think it was probably mostly a personality thing. When I read your posts, I imagine an old man in a leather armchair hanging back and but asking questions with a point to them. Though when I check your profile you seem to be younger than me in reality, so apologies.

For Elements, their vote hopping sticks out to me RVS!Puff -> Thomith -> Cobblerfone -> Gamma. When I read their posts they have a more naive voice in my head, but whether it's naive town or naive scum, I'm not sure.

Gamma gives the impression of just hanging back until I called her out. First parcel of content is in ISO 5 in which she gives the opinion that hypoclaiming targets but not results will be better. Next non-setup post of substance is ISO 9 where she asks Adorable what she thinks of Gobs reads. And that's it until I vote for her low content posts. Then she becomes more active. IDK, maybe she's mobile posting, but overall her early posts gives the impression of someone who wants to appear to be posting but to also fade into the background without strong opinions.

Mizuki, I think of in terms of her tunnel on me. My gut gives me a slight town read because I have a history of attracting misguided town tunnels. She was also the first vote on me when there was still a plausible wagon on Puff, so unless Puff is mafia and Mizuki is their partner, I don't see her being mafia. Though if Puff is mafia, then Mizuki is scummier.

For Celebloki and Shadowez, there's not enough interaction from them. Them being V/LA is slightly annoying, but it's Thanksgiving so whatever.

Because it's lazy and that feels more like town than scum. The alternative is that you're scum scrambling desperately to push Gamma for {arbitrary reasons} and I don't think that makes sense in the gamestate unless the scumteam is exactly {Cobbler, Elements}, and even then that's a stretch because in that case there are still like 3 low-activity slots that could be pressured to divert attention from Cobbler instead.

Why couldn't it be mafia simply not feeling pressured and lazily throwing out arbitrary scumreads? You present the possibility of lazy!town and desperate!wolf but don't seem to consider the option in the middle.

-SNIP-

I won't get into the whole statistics part of this post because my opinions on statistics in mafia is that they're only useful for the theoretical side of mafia (e.g balancing setups) and have no use in actual gameplay.

I do want to know what you find in Puff's and Kyouko's posts that seems townie and what in Elements posts you find scummy, since those are basically the only reads you've given so far.

I'll assume you mean Gamma instead of Elements (unless that was a scum-slip and Elements is your partner?). For Gamma, see above.

For Puff, it's mostly Adorable. The way they've been answering questions directed at Gob seems more stream-of-consciousness rather than calculated. Adorable is also choosing to reply when they don't have to -- they could just wait for Gob.

For Kyouko, the setup speculation didn't seem calculated to influence the town to choose a bad option. It was also early at the start of the game where there's low information anyway and it got some discussion going, though it didn't really go anywhere. And while she's not asking questions, her reactions to posts feel genuine rather than calculated.

[Cobblerfone]

-SNIP-

For some reason I thought 191 was your post. Don't ask me why, I'd just woken up at that time.

When you say "the setup speculation didn't seem calculated to influence the town to choose a bad option" can you provide a more specific example? Where exactly are the points you think Kyouko could've misled town?

I'm a little confused, by the question. My point is, if mafia is going to bother with setup speculation (which to my understanding is held by conventional wisdom to be NAI or scummy for much the same reasons you expressed as my statistics speculation to be scummy), they're going to do it to either bait the town into doing something that gives an edge to the speculator or (more likely imo) convince them not doing anything unusual is the best option. Admittedly, that can last one can also come from cautious town, but Kyouko seemed to be leading discussion in a more unconventional way. Admittedly it's kind of a blur. I'll have more time tomorrow to review it all because I don't actually remember what note we ended on

-SNIP-
Could you expand a little on why you think you attract misguided town tunnels?

Honestly it's been long enough I don't really remember. Even at the time I wasn't sure. Probably my idiosyncrasies? Unconventionalities? In my newbie game I got tunnel-vision. Early on in my mafiascum career I tended to be a sheep. I'd sheep the one highly confident and charismatic scumhunter that was in the game (I used to mostly play large themes, and there's always one it seems. Heck if I were the way I was back then, I'd be sheeping Kyouko 100% in this game). Of course that eventually backfired, of course -- charismatic scumhunters are sometimes scum after all. IDK. I also used to trust my intuition for detecting town too much. Though I recognize now that's probably statistical error. "Firm town reads" that are actually based on bad intuition are still more likely to be town than scum. I also tend to get kind of emotional and anxious when I have a lot of votes on me whether town or scum. I used to have a lot of pride in not being executed as town, until I did. I regard it as failure as much as, or perhaps more so, than when I am scum. I think I considered it a "duty" to be perceived as town as town. I'm always trying some new angle to try to "solve" the game I guess. Aspiring but crank scumhunter, I guess

@Elements, do you agree with the assessment that you've been vote hopping?

I always vote hop day 1
It's probably the most nai thing I can do

Fair enough, it is day 1. NAI until the day 2 wagon analysis.

Honestly, the reason why I'm a little confused is because the votes happened, but the reasoning for them had to be drawn out of Mizuki and Elements, rather than mentioned when the votes originally happened.
I could be reading too much into this though.

IMO that doesn't matter as much on its own. More important if subsequent

Anyone else think shaddowez is scum here? just based off the first post.

Elements is being scummy too. But there is the whole alt thing so idk.

What do you think @kyouko

I'm not Kyouko but while I do think being scum is more likely to get you into that mindset, I think there are too many other reasons for someone's first post to be like that (generally boiling down to excitement mixed with laziness / tiredness) for it to be alignment indicative. More important is a pattern of behavior.

Granted, considering how we had two competing wagons with 2 votes on at the same time and neither even got to a 3rd vote, I would not be surprised if one or (or even both scum) were in Shadowez / Celebloki. Puff also only ever got to 3 votes. Although, I we guess we do have plurality at deadline. That might make scum less eager in general to hop on wagons.

[Cobblerfone]

Plurality is not enabled in this game

I must have read that wrong.

Honestly, the reason why I'm a little confused is because the votes happened, but the reasoning for them had to be drawn out of Mizuki and Elements, rather than mentioned when the votes originally happened.
I could be reading too much into this though.

IMO that doesn't matter as much on its own. More important if subsequent

What do you mean by this - more important if "subsequent"

I meant "more important if there's a pattern of behavior". I think I intended to write "more important if subsequent posts are similar"? brain fart

-SNIP-

On the statistics stuff from Cobb:
Clearly the stats are wrong, and not just a little bit. But I have a weird hunch that in a {Puff, Cobb} scenario this could have been a good way to get off the Puff wagon and cause a bunch of noise and pointless content. (For example 188 feels like it could be pure chaff.)

In the end everyone agrees the stats were wrong but the time and attention taken has meanwhile helped shift focus away from Puff and also makes it look like Cobb unvoted from mistaken logic rather than the timing of the unvote coming under more question.

Whether that theory has weight, given Puff was only at E-2 not E-1, I'm not sure. Like I say, more just gut feel (reinforced a little by Cobb's recent posts being quite thought out which makes the stats error a little less plausible).

Why is puff town if I'm town? If you scumread me for trying to divert pressure from Puff because they're my alleged partner, and you scumread Puff for both my defense of them and for at least one other reason (being dismissive of townreads), doesn't it make more sense to vote Puff? Using this same reasoning, you could be scum trying to establish an illogical connection between a town player (myself) and your scum-partner Puff. This is dangerously poor logic, unless you have other reasons to vote me, I've missed. I'm a CS major; I'm bad at doing math in my head but my logic is generally sound.

The first bolded sentence makes it sound like currently relevant as a justification for townreading Mizuki for scumreading you. The second bolded quote makes it sound like distant past. Which is it?

This is my first game on this site in years. So it is both the set of "my most recent mafiascum games" AND the distant past.

On to setup speculation analysis to see if imaginality's comment on the hypoclaiming stuff makes sense or not

[Cobblerfone]

I did briefly consider if hypoclaiming (everyone picks a town role off the clock and then claims a target/result at the beginning of D2, the actual town PR's could claim their real results and then if they die) would be useful here, and I think it might be

unless the clock specifically landed on 5.

Would require everyone to be on board with it, though.

Can you expand on this? I hadn't considered hypoclaiming before you pointed that out, but now that you have I've noticed something. (waiting to post it for now)

Quoting the quote for conciseness. I had misremembered -- Mizuki brought up hypoclaiming first.

Okay, reasonable enough. I think any protectives hypoclaiming would feed more info to scum anyways.

I do think there is merit to hypoclaiming the roles adjacent to Mafia Rolecop - that is located on 3 and 9 so hypoclaiming as though you are one of 2, 4, 8, or 10 could work. It would not give mafia any more information about the roles in the setup than they already have, though they could fish out VTs that provide a result they know to be false. For example if scum!Mizuki performs the NK and I claim Followed Mizuki, she went nowhere - then scum!Mizuki would know I'm not a real Follower. Possibly I could still be a protective hypoclaiming as investigative but scum would know I can't guilty them in that scenario.

However, this post shows what I was remembering earlier about why I had a townread on Kyouko. Expressing unprompted concern about the protectives hypoclaiming feeding more info to scum in a naive hypo-claim scenario where all roles truthfully claim their hypoclaims (protectives hypoclaims their targets, gives scum more info about who to not target, because protective are more likely to re-target their targets, at least more than investigatives). But she doesn't just poo-poo the idea, she comes up with a better alternative.

That is a point against it but also Maf already have a 50/50 shot of guessing the exact setup since they can infer it from their PR.

on the subject of "bad" statistics, you are in good company

-SNIP-

Eh I think hypo might be viable if claiming target but not role/result

not bad when combined with Kyouko's

I think the ideal play for D2 is to do a pre-hypoclaim "categorical" claim where everyone claims whether or not they have a hard guilty. A hard guilty here would be a Rolecop that discovers a Rolecop/Roleblocker, or a Follower that sees their target kill. Assuming everyone claims they do NOT have a guilty, then we can proceed to hypoclaiming as though we are all one of the 4 roles that surrounds Mafia Rolecop. This will allow anyone who is actually on 2/4/8/10 to claim their results for post-flip analysis without giving too much away to scum in the moment. On the plus side, in the case of a hard guilty, there is a 50% chance that the other TPR is a protective that can save the player that claimed the hard guilty for more results D3 onward.

So the idea is claim hard guilty or no, if no hard guilty, then hypoclaim investigatives?

Okay, reasonable enough. I think any protectives hypoclaiming would feed more info to scum anyways.

I do think there is merit to hypoclaiming the roles adjacent to Mafia Rolecop - that is located on 3 and 9 so hypoclaiming as though you are one of 2, 4, 8, or 10 could work. It would not give mafia any more information about the roles in the setup than they already have, though they could fish out VTs that provide a result they know to be false. For example if scum!Mizuki performs the NK and I claim Followed Mizuki, she went nowhere - then scum!Mizuki would know I'm not a real Follower. Possibly I could still be a protective hypoclaiming as investigative but scum would know I can't guilty them in that scenario.

This strat isn’t great because based on the one player that is on 1/5/7/11 mafia can solve the setup

Those players are meant to fakeclaim the way a VT would during the hypoclaim and pretend they are a 2/4/8/10. Post-flip of the 1/5/7/11 they might know the exact setup if they can POE the actual result of an unflipped 2/4/8/10 from amongst the hypoclaims but I think as long as everyone sticks to 2/4/8/10 it should be +EV for town

All this hypoclaim business is most likely only ideal if we see VT Elim > VT NK btw. If something else happens it will need to be rethought based on the info available.

I'm not sure I follow the Gamma/Kyouko exchange here. But if we get a mafia flip, surely hypoclaiming is stronger? but yeah if we get a PR elim and/or NK everything changes.

[Cobblerfone]

Woke up early today and my mind got locked on the game. I guess sleep really does help process stuff. I didn't vote him yesterday because I wanted to make sure it wasn't just emotion fueling my vote, but I realized something: who are Imaginality's top scum reads? The two players who got to E-2 and the V/LA Enchant slot everyone else is also suspicious of by default. Why vote me when the only reason he gives for me being scum is that I was allegedly trying to defend scum!Puff? I think Imaginality is scum who decided in advance who he was going to vote: the non-RVS wagon of the day, so they go looking for reasons to vote me. But there's a problem, the only potentially scummy thing I've done is divert pressure off of Puff's wagon -- but it's only scummy if Puff is mafia. But he doesn't vote Puff despite having more reasons to vote them, instead he votes for me. Why? There are two possibilities: either Puff is mafia and he's voting me trying to manufacture evidence that Puff is town (he said that if I'm town, then Puff is town) OR Puff is town (more likely given Puff's pushback) and he's voting me because

I

was one of Puff's three votes AND Puff's wagon was mostly RVS.

VOTE: imaginality

[Cobblerfone]

Kyouko continues to be town

[Cobblerfone]

Not sure what to make of the Enchant/Gamma interaction.

At this point I just want Cobb to claim.

Normally I wouldn't without intent to hammer but with the fear of being quickhammered

I am the follower

I crumbed this a little earlier in 308 hoping someone on the wagon would pick it up and ease pressure but guess not *shrug*