Open 778: Nightless Vanilla [Game Over!]

[Deimos27]

VOTE: Isis
For being an inferior deity. Or a terrorist organisation, which isn't any better.

@NSG

, I am

V/LA

through May 3rd

[Deimos27]

Isis who's your alt

[Deimos27]

I'm back from my V/LA, will catch up after class.
UNVOTE:

[Deimos27]

Actually I'll do some catch-up here and there whenever I have time.

Spoiler: Norwegian + HEM

The Players who got to Vote you will Factionalize against those who did not get to Vote you, from the rule against fully killing you. This will create Tensions. I will try to deliberately inflame the Tensions until a Player is likely to act angrily.

Doesn't sharing your plan kinda ruin any element of surprise you could possibly derive from it...?

It reads like you're trying to appear to be solving and putting out plans like you're having a townie mindset, but the actual plan described doesn't have much thought put behind it and thus i fail to see how it would be effective at containing scum.

It's like he mechanically explained RVS.

Ok that was fun

This is a new open alt hopefully becomes my main. I got tired of letter soup.

Lightly townreading Norwee and scumreading monkey for their reactions so far.

Not sure how to read Elements. He is always an axolotl-tier read.

Why are my reactions scum and what is your response to our critique of your plan?

I'm amazed that neither Norwegian nor HEM realised Isis's obvious trollpost was an obvious trollpost.

To help I used Dice. I did not throw them and adjusted them with my fingers until they showed the Value I wanted. Here is a picture to prove that I adjusted them with my fingers until I got the Value I wanted:

I mean come on, this part had be me wheezing.

HEM is even like "what's your response to our critique" after Isis has already showed herself an alt. Which isn't scummy, just legendarily unobservant.

Uh, I disavow the plan.

I scumread your reaction because kneejerking "this is town" then raising objectively meritous objections has this look to it like realizing a slot deserves to get townread but then pursuing a win condition where slots that deserve to get townread don't get townread. Norwee's response was more internally consistent.

What's with this assumption that the logic of an argument is intrinsically interrelated with the scumminess of the person making making it. I thought HEM was perfectly consistent by townreading Isis while disagreeing with her logic. It's not just that there's "lots of room for [it]" (48), it's the only sensical way of reading his posts. And I completely agree with HEM that if Isis's opening were coming from a genuine newbie, it would be really towny. I would just never buy it coming from a genuine newbie.

Norwegian seems a more calculating in personality than HEM, even just based on their academic tone in 34, so out of the two, the fact that Norwegian fails to recognize the obvious trollpost and makes it into some kind of "ah yes this is an intentional attempt to look like scumhunting without in fact progressing the game" looks far more disingenuous.

[Deimos27]

Spoiler: Isis

If I had to guess which direction to interpret Element's I would say it's town indicative for him, because he seems to be more passive day one when he has a green role PM.

I'd probably dislike it if he were anyone else.

Elements probably votes humaneatingmonkey there as every alignment except unlyncher, I think, but doing so silently is town for him.

He might also onboard to the plan, but I'd expect him to self-consciously feel obligated to provide some shred of his own reasoning for participating.

see this is weird because i was trying to browse his recent games and i found not one thing that can give me this kind of idea. At least 5 of his last games have been town, and his most recent scum game he kinda replaced into.

so to have this kind of conclusion of declaring that he is "paradoxically town", you guys must have a lot of history. can you give me insight on past games that might give you this idea?

[Can't figure out nested spoilers]

D1 scum!Elements
Your more recent scumgame might hold more weight, I don't know of it, but, here's to let you know where I'm coming from.

General pattern there is either objecting to bad planning or trying to get some kind of value out of joining in on stuffs

I think I have played 5 games with Elements? I have played with him bunches.

I have a few observations about this interaction.

(1) This read makes sense with the evidence provided, so I'm inclined to lean a pinch towards town!Elements.
(2) I think scum!Isis has equity

not

to tr Elements, who doesn't seem particularly valuable to pocket and would likely be wanted kept open for potential D1 lynchbait as one of the trollier players in this game. This is the case except when Elements is also scum. That's relevant because it would mean a future town!Elements flip I think offers some support for town!Isis.
(3) Isis appears to be quite experienced which means I'm less confident in reading them without associatives and VCA etc., especially since they're an alt and hence have no meta. In any case she appears both competent and proactive, someone helpful both in this day phase and later ones. So precluding a blatant scumslip I'd rule her out as the D1 lynch.

Spoiler: votato

and im still waiting for people with the red PMs to out... would be very helpful for some outside research im doing

Votato do you have a red role pm?

nope. mine is blue, or whatever the town color is.

I keep seeing this intentional scumslipping/scumclaiming nonsense. What game-theoretical purpose does it drive?

[Deimos27]

No, I think h.e.m. was townreading me either way. I just think it's somewhat scum indicative that at that juncture he's more concerned with litigating an approach to RVS that's slightly worse than any other approach rather building an emergent townbloc in a nightless game. It's not about dissonance, it's about priorities.
Like when I was in Guns and Roses and someone with zero games replaced in with an obvtown post that only one other person wanted to townlock, I spent like my next umpteen posts saying "cyanjet is town, don't ever lynch it after I'm dead".

In your post you certainly seemed to be speaking in terms of internal consistency and dissonance, no? This point you're now making about priorities I think has more value, since it shows some disposition towards IIoA.

I'm an open alt, Deimos, you can request meta games if you want to

Oh, I'm dumb I thought "open alt" meant an alt for open games. Yeah I'd appreciate it if you linked, say, your two most recent town and scum games on your main account. If you don't want to search through your own games just link the profile, I'll do it myself.

[Deimos27]

Wait... so i’m the mafia?

I'll get back to you on that when I'm done reading. Back to class for now.

And yes, I see what you did there.

[Deimos27]

Spoiler: Elements

I son't like votata's "ooh look idk what a town role pm is i must be scum oooh look oooh" (read int Morty's voice)

Why is it scummy? I see that behaviour from many players regardless of alignment just as part of a trolly meta.

I like isis although that coulld be just because they've expressed my play so far is town indicative

How does the fact that you're not sure yourself about your reasons for townreading Isis reflect on the reliability of that read? If you're aware that your reads are susceptible to pocketing, you should be trying to resolve that and identify the actual logical reasons in favour and against your read, rather than throwing your hands up and proclaiming uncertainty.

I'm thinking looker town atm and fire town

So far on page 4 these two have offered a grand total of approximately zero actual gamesolving content. Some people are proud about their ability to scumhunt through fluff. I am not. Why are these players town?

@Elements, questions within the spoiler. Feel free to ignore if already answered later in the thread.

Spoiler: Isis vs votato

votato what do you think of Elements?

i think thats a lot of reads to have on page 4. i also think thats a lot of reads to have without explaining them. but mostly i think its page 4, so im gonna wait about 40 pages before i come to any conclusions. or maybe not, we will see. i dont have any conclusions drawn yet. if element were to flip scum id wonder if you were trying to get a read on me to see if im dangerous and worth mislynching. the answer is that im not, and you coulda just said you had a red role pm and then asked me straight up.

I have all sorts of theory opinions about this topic I'd want to say postgame but I'm not sure whether they serve my wincon right now.

#91 strikes me a smidge disingenuous. Town!votato is pretty aware that an iso with little content besides scumclaim wifom isn't very threatening to a scum!Isis, irrespective of attitudes towards Elements.

Exactly. Im an unknown. I havent said anything useful so far iirc. Therefore, ask me a direct probing question so i either reveal danger level or look scummy, or both. The question serves town!isis, but also scum!isis

I'm inclined to agree with Isis that this is slightly scum-indicative from votato, not because his logic is wrong (though I do disagree with the scum motivation that he identifies if scum!Isis = True*), but because this comes off as unnecessarily throwing shade at Isis by bringing up the scum motivation when town motivation is equally likely and honestly rather obvious. I especially like this if town!Isis = True, since scum!votato shading her is completely consistent with his opinion that scum is well off targeting dangerous townies. Assuming he agrees with my assessment that Isis looks both experienced and competent, at least relative to many other players in this game.

*Votato's main point (which I think is clear enough in 95 at the latest) seems to be that scum!Isis has motivation to question him because he either makes a mistake and turns out to be an easy mislynch or reveals some degree of resistance (which votato implies is something that scum wants and would proceed to attempt to lynch). I find it very unlikely that the latter reason is present. Scum hardly needs to investigate how dangerous town!votato is at this time; they have a four player team, and plausibly already know from past experience who the dangerous scumhunters are, in case their gameplan is to push one of them. Furthermore, activating a so-far passive and unhelpful townie is way better for town than it is for scum.

Spoiler: HEM vs votato

why vote me, votato?

why vote me, votato?

it was a pretty obvious rvs vote. ive since moved to a different vote that is very serious, you should ask me about that instead

it's not because of what isis tried to do D1?

oh no. i think that its a dumb plan on its face in terms of doing it explicitly like that. i meant that organic food is a scam. so i guess in a way its because of isis, but more because of your response to what she said.

so it's not rvs.

and you said this:

The absence of something useful is a trek into the negatives. I don't know what meta you're used to, but active lurking is hardly something I'd ever consider "an unknown".

oh ill contribute later. and im not actively lurking, because im making no effort to seem like im contributing. until very recently, when you tricked me. away, demon!

and now that you say that, it's not true at all.

VOTE: votato

I am completely unable to follow HEM's thought process. An RVS vote is not necessarily completely random, many players employ joke reasons for them. In this case, votato's joke reason was in protesting to doing this "organically", which is why he says the cause is technically HEM (by making the comment about organics) and Isis in the longer term (by making her entrance which prompted the comment about organics). And as far as I can see these responses are perfectly consistent with someone who is making no pretense at contributing.
@HEM, please explain more comprehensively why votato is scummy here.

u are correct.
VOTE: humaneatingmonkey

u can have my vote for the next 72 hours. do what u wnt with 2 votes.

A sheep in growlithe's clothing. What is the cause of this apparently immense trust you have of Isis?

[Deimos27]

Do players just get more inclined to post fluff the more experienced they get? This open has like half the game-relevant-content density of a Newbie.

[Deimos27]

Spoiler: Page 6 catch-up

norwee scum and if he actually flips scum im calling isis town
also monkey is probably town

reading pg 4 now

scum!Norwegian -> town!Isis makes sense because scum!Norwegian has no reason to fabricate that early suspicion of Isis when they're scumpartners, but why is HEM town?

mostly because it feels like Norwee is forcing himself to push this.
It just doesn't look like scumhunting to me

Watch me.
VOTE: Isis
VOTE: Isis
VOTE: Isis

Why is Isis scum though??

god i could go for a burger rn

Have you considered... playing the game?

[Deimos27]

If a player is Incredibly Serious From Page 1 in their first phases of being a mafia, they might swing too much in the other direction of Never Serious Until Day 2 in phase two.

oh hey my life story

Will you make any read whatsoever if I ask really nicely?
Or shall we policy lynch you instead? ^^

[Deimos27]

why do you have pops avatar

I knew I'd seen that somewhere.

GREEN CRAYONS YOU ARE 3.14159265% OF WHY I QUEUED FOR THIS GAME U BETTER COME PLAY WITH ME

SAME!

Albert was super hyped for the game to start from what i remember in the queue.

Maybe he doesn't like playing as scum?

---

These votechart graphs are faaancy

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey

Is this a serious vote?

[Deimos27]

Sorry for the catch-up getting a bit lazier but my fatigue is at most equally as large an issue here as the posts being all fluff.

[Deimos27]

Spoiler: Green Crayons + HEM on votato

NorwegianboyEE scum
Firebringer scum
votato scum

Isis town
human town
elements town
Alisae town

everyone else null

I mean. I get the vote being RVS

But then you justify it with it being in some way bc of his reaction to Isis, which is not RVS

Do you see the disconnect?

i dont buy this.

i don't mind if votato is our first lynch today.

Again I'm surprised by how wildly differently I'm reading some posts compared to others. First it was the Isis opener, now it's votato's explanation of his RVS vote. I thought it was perfectly clear, as I outlined earlier in my catch-up, and would be happy to point to if someone is still confused. That his vote

had a cause

doesn't reflect in any way on whether it was RVS or not. And HEM is once again pushing it as if votato is the best lynch today for that non-reason alone.

I don't usually think poor reasoning is AI, but in this case I'm leaning a bit town!HEM, or at least {scum!votato -> town!HEM}, mainly because I think this kind of conf bias semi-tunneling would actually be pretty hard for scum to fake (especially against a partner, as it would be with a votato scumflip). LuckyLuciano taught me that bad play can often be a towntell and I think it might just apply here. HEM feels so accidentally

not

self-aware, unlike the fluff posters who can mask self-awareness by making uncaring play their meta.

@Green Crayons, do you have other reasons for sr'ing votato than this apparent RVS vs not-RVS disconnect? Why is Firebringer scum?

Cycle Man

>joins the game, but not really

im sorry did you expect me to have the game solved in half an hour on page 2?
how hard are you gonna try and force this?

Didn't look to me like he was forcing anything particularly hard. The frustrated tone here feels a bit inconsistent with your earlier indifference to being pressured. What happened?

P-Edit: Yo, game is progressing a bit fast for my liking. I'm still a handful of pages behind.

[Deimos27]

Because some slots seem more like "town not giving a fuck" vs "scum intentionally not doing anything".

You've very diplomatically avoided stating which slots you consider to be the former, and which the latter.

[Deimos27]

If a player is Incredibly Serious From Page 1 in their first phases of being a mafia, they might swing too much in the other direction of Never Serious Until Day 2 in phase two.

oh hey my life story

Will you make any read whatsoever if I ask really nicely?
Or shall we policy lynch you instead? ^^

shallow townleans on hem and isis

having played a fair bit with deimos offsite i'd go and say this lines up with his town meta

firebringer is
firebringer

im not fond of norwee but im not sure if i have any merit behind it that i can articulate or if im just biased against people who are against me

kinda waiting for looker to just do more

crayons is the only person i'd call firmly town atm

(1) If this is me as town, how would I be playing as scum?
(2) Your crayons read is your strongest, so surely you are capable of stating some reasons for it?

Cycle Men is an alt. I know his main, but will not be divulging it unless he does first. I will say that doing nothing early-game is exactly his meta, though it's a playstyle I can't say I'm remotely fond of.

[Deimos27]

can you blame me for being frustrated when i make my first post and half an hour later someone is getting self-righteous about my activity

A very uncharitable way to phrase a scumlean not all that different from all the previous opposition.

it makes me frustrated the same way people who think policy lynching is an actual viable pro-town concept do

I wasn't actually going to advocate for a policy lynch you. Probably. I did want you to think I

might

.

I am caught up but I skimmed that part because it was boring


Let me do a quick reread but I have people already sorted

Here's mine

Town:
Alisae
Isis
Elements

No reads yet:
Green Crayons
Firebringer
Looker
Deimos27

Scum:
Cycle Men
votato
NorwegianboyEE

NorwegianboyEE scum
Firebringer scum
votato scum

Isis town
human town
elements town
Alisae town

everyone else null

We both made 3 scum sorting. human did before me. I did because I assumed 3 scum.

Yesterday when i actually read the first couple of mod posts, i see there are 4 scum. I'm sure I saw that when i looked up what the setup was before i signed up, but i had forgotten. human picking 3 scum instead of 4 aligns with my (town) assumption about a 3-mafia setup.

And how would you evaluate the odds of HEM just happening to have 3 scumleans at that point in the game?
This post is super interesting because it's either a scum gambit or confirms Green Crayons as town.

[Deimos27]

as town, you do this right here where you pop in once you're ready and bish bash bosh through everything while assuming a confident lead position, whereas on scum, you've been a bit clumsier or more reluctant
of course im going off old old games and your scum game has probably improved overtime, but i feel confident enough going off of that rn

crayon guy has this aura over the game that i could never really see coming from scum, where he can confidently observe and comment on the game as it happens and solemnly push people in a way that wouldnt be necessary while playing as scum to maintain innocence

Tell me, how old exactly are the games you are referring to? Estimate for me when the last time you saw me play scum was. Then estimate how much you think I might have improved since then. You seem awfully confident about my alignment, considering what I suspect the answer will turn out to be.

Can you point me to particular examples of where you see this tone from Crayons?

[Deimos27]

And how would you evaluate the odds of HEM just happening to have 3 scumleans at that point in the game?

In which case, human is still town.

So either (1) human is town who, like me, is bad at remembering things, (2) human is town who simply had 3 scumleans, or (3) human is scum who created 3 scumleans, and chose 3 instead of 2 or 4 because ???.

probability of (1) + (2) is much > than (3). Plus there's the gut feeling of him doing something I did within minutes of each other, but he did it first.

Last town game I had only one scumlean in D1, because everyone else was at worst null. I wouldn't change my play as scum to start including exactly as many scumleans as there are scum in the setup — I would still have only as many scumleans as the gamestate is conducive to.

Next time HEM comes online he can confirm what the case is for him. I'll suspend judgment till then.

[Deimos27]

Cool, I get to play my favourite game: How Many Scum on the Deimos Wagon?

First I'll respond to the push

Spoiler: Firebringer + Green Crayons

There is a lot in 376 I don't understand.

276 Damn this heavy analytical players are going to drive me up a wall. The complexity of their mind is harder for me to grasp. They go a few hundred miles a minute within a few sentences. Nothing sticks out to me as saying he is just fabricating analysis, but to me the highlight was Elements. He came to a similar conclusion as me. And he doesn't have the experience or I don't think he does have the experience with Elements so this could be someone from a scum mindset who picked up on something and is highlighting it show he is thinking deeply. Like showing your sleeves while having a knife tucked in your shoe.

My experience with Elements was irrelevant to my read, since all I said was that the meta evidence provided by Isis does in fact imply town!Elements. Yes, there is a world where Isis was intentionally trying to mislead the others into townreading Elements, e.g. if she is scumbuddies with him, but it's pretty unnecessarily risky in case there are other players with much experience with him. So I'm not trying to show I'm thinking particularly deeply, I'm literally sheeping the read of someone who has more experience with the player, because the conclusion follows from the evidence provided.

288 Posts like this always make me think. What is the purpose? What do you think you are conveying and how do you think this analysis is helping you? To me, the mindset is generally to see whose thought patterns can be manipulated and I think he is picking up Votato as a potential ally.

How do I think the analysis in 288 is helping me?
1. If I determine that a post by votato is scum-indicative, that is helpful, because it means lynching him has a higher probability of success than other alternatives
2. If I determine that town!Isis = True supports that conclusion, that is helpful, because it means that if Isis flips green later votato is even likelier to be scum
It should be painfully obvious how I think the analysis is helping me. It's helping me sort.

Why do you say I'm picking up votato as an ally? I literally sl him in the same post. I defend him from one argument, because that argument is rubbish, which is important to do so that everyone can more accurately perceive which posts are AI and to what extent, so that the odds of lynching scum are maximized. That doesn't mean I suddenly tl him.

320 Good reads here I actually think. He isn't shading HEM which I think would be the actual scum modus operandi, considering this is the opportunity to double down and force a ditotemy of Votato/him town.

Seeing as I never claimed to be townreading votato, I don't see why I would try to force a votato/Deimos townblock as either alignment.

325I would think he would pick up Isis read is based on meta if he was analyzing that more. Maybe not.

I don't follow what you're saying. Isis has a read based on meta? Someone has a metaread on Isis? I have no clue what I'm supposed to be picking up on here.

The tldr is that Deimos is doing plenty of analytical posts where he just makes observations or raises questions but never really does anything substantive with these lines of discussion to formulate reads.

FB hating on analytical posts is bad form and we should shame FB for it.

What do you consider doing something substantive? If my analysis didn't determine AI behaviour it would be pretty bad analysis; each post of mine comprising analysis also includes the reads I get from that analysis. These reads aren't phrased as particularly strong, and some are associatives, but that reflects my confidence in them. D1 can be a big confbias trap and a lot of reads are more confident than they should be. I think probabilistically: x has a slightly higher chance of being scum than y, etc. If you were annoyed that I wasn't voting anyone, I was intentionally putting it off until I was caught up.

So he's effectively emulating the hard part about scumhunting as scum, and not cashing in on the part where he gets to mislynch people? You really sound like you're bad-casing him.

You mean being active and looking productive without being productive? lol that's not town.

You mean being active and trying to make cases but being unable to make a good case against town? That aligns with an analytical scum who hasn't yet found a plausible bad case to push.

It's not a slam dunk but scum have pulled it before. Especially when they are replace-ins, they do long catch ups.

Which conveniently he's been doing this entire game even though he isn't a replace in. Catching up without any delivery.

This is both misrepresentative and a bit unfair. I haven't been catching up the

entire game

, I've been doing it for one day.

One

day. Because I was V/LA for the first 3-4. I spent a lot of time yesterday on that catch-up analysis, and I don't think it's fair for you to expect me to already be pushing for lynches when I'm not even fully caught up. You have the benefit of having your ideas mulling around for days, I do not.

Next up, analysis of the wagoners:

Spoiler: Is this a counterwagon?

The situation from which we started:

Votecount 1.10

Target	Wagon
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Alisae (134), Green Crayons (178)
votato (2)	humaneatingmonkey (105), Elements (230)
Green Crayons (2)	Isis (228), Firebringer (235)
Isis (1)	Albert B. Rampage (263)
Firebringer (1)	Cycle Men (152)
Elements (1)	Looker (246)
humaneatingmonkey (1)	votato (239)
Cycle Men (1)	NorwegianboyEE (155)
Not Voting (1)	Deimos27 (269)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

1. Firebringer
Firebringer has a fluffy meta that he has equity not to break as scum (correct me if I'm wrong that a long ISO analysis is rather uncharacteristic of him) unless he

needs

his wagon to catch traction or he

needs

to be townread. The top three wagons were tied against not-Firebringer. This means there was no real threat to him, and unless the scumteam is exactly Firebringer/Norwegian/votato/Green Crayons, scum!Firebringer had an easier target to push than Deimos.
Conclusion: scum!Firebringer -> unlikely

2. ABR
Proclaimed scumreads on Isis and me, so after I catch the Firebringer vote, wanting to wagon me is consistent. He seems to tr Firebringer, since respect for him is part of the vote reasoning.
Conclusion: NAI

3. votato
Townreads me but votes me because he promised he'd sheep ABR.

im fine with norway, isis, FB, crayoneater pressure. I'll follow your lead here ABR.

Nothing here implies that votato would be fine with Deimos pressure, so I don't see why he has to follow through on that promise, it comes off as incredibly opportunistic. Yet if this is him trying to deflect pressure off his own slot (or possible scumpartners), it's the weirdest opportunism ever. Instead of making some contrived scumread on me he professes a townread and... votes me anyway. scum!votato would be digging his own grave if this lynch were to ever go through with him having that stance on it. Then he unvotes before I even respond. Which again raises the question of why he was so quick to sheep it in the first place.
Conclusion: ??? votato is weird, this can come from both bad scum and bad town and I'm not sure how to weigh which one is more likely

4. Green Crayons
His vote timing is weird because he checks with Firebringer first whether "scum raccoon" means voteworthy, and only joins after the other three votes, which comes off as potential opportunism. I also don't see how any of Firebringer's points demonstrate scum-indicative behaviour, but then again, I didn't see how HEM quoting three scumleans is town-indicative, so it could be I just operate on a very different wavelength than Crayons. And there's plenty of town motivation to pressure me into producing a readslist and vote.
Conclusion: NAI

If there is scum opportunism on this wagon it's most likely in the form of votato or Crayons, or alternatively better disguised under ABR. Votato is the most suspicious but all over the place in any case. Firebringer's vote felt the towniest of the bunch.

5. Cycle Men
Woah what why is Cycle Men on my list of wagoners?

does it have merit though? i feel like that's a really narrow, forced angle to look at things
when something forms a story way too conveniently i think its time to rethink

Because I read this as a very unnatural defense. Instead of thinking critically about the arguments offered he vaguely states that the perspective is "narrow" and "forced" and needs to be "rethought", without elaborating or expressing any other care for whether I'm lynched. It comes off as scum wanting towncred in case of Deimos mislynch but not actually wanting to prevent a Deimos mislynch. His tr of me in 309 combined with his unwillingness to respond to my 334 gives me a similar sense of lacking paranoia about my alignment.

I have two other concerns as well.
Firstly, I read his tone shift from initial indifference to sudden frustration/defensiveness in 215 as rather faux, unless he has some explanation to offer as to why he's suddenly getting frustrated when that's not his predisposition earlier on (e.g. against Norwegian's vote in 155).
Secondly, I think his confidence in calling Crayons town is inconsistent with his prior beliefs that early reads are all pretense and uncertain, especially since his read of Crayons can basically be summarized as a toneread (he has an "aura", 326). Which leads me to think that read is also probably fabricated.

Yes, there's a possible world where this is town!Cycle Men who somehow felt so pressured that they ended up inadvertently faking their reads. There is a world where this is town!Cycle Men who has zero trust in my scumplay. There is a world where this is town!Cycle Men and some issues irl meant that they were in more capricious a mood than usual and got frustrated.

But I think each of those cases are less likely than their respective denials.

I have town leans on HEM and Firebringer.
So far I feel like I've mostly been on the same page with Isis and Alisae in terms of logic, which I consider a good sign. I'll get around to skimming through their meta before I settle on tr's there, since these two seem experienced enough to be faking the thought processes.
I need more from Looker and ABR so I can get in these players' heads.
Norwegian and Elements need re-reading. My initial catch-up thoughts were slight leans towards scum!Norwegian and town!Elements but those were back on like page 4 so these folks are first on the to-ISO list.
Green Crayons I'm undecided on, I especially want to think more about the thinking-there-was-only-3-scum ordeal.
Votato has promise as an alternative lynch. I still sl him a bit for earlier, and I'm generally confused about his behaviour surrounding my wagon here.

My vote wants to be here:
VOTE: Cycle Men

[Deimos27]

And yes, I gave up on the near post-by-post because this game progressed by like a million pages overnight again and I don't have the time nor stamina for that.
I am caught up now though.

[Deimos27]

"Gamesolving content" How pretentious. You think you're actually L, don't you? Do you feel that Albert, Alisae, and Elements are all town? Do you feel that either Cycle Men or NorwegianboyEE are scum?

I made this account in 2016. I added this profile pic in 2016. No, I don't think I'm L. No, I don't think I'm some mafia god. I refer you to my above post regarding your questions about reads.

Define "serious". If you're asking if it counted toward a lynch, it did.

Serious = non-RVS
If you had a scumread on HEM, I was curious what it was based on. You're not really giving a lot to work with here.

And Looker, I want to say that you are an enigma. What is this playstyle and posting style?

[Deimos27]

Everyone else is town. Except Norwee who I am going to torture. And some people who are hard to figure out.

I don't think Clemency ever plays mafia in a readable way so it makes plenty of sense to advance to playing the 11p it kind of already will be.

Let me get this straight:
You prefer to lynch Clemency because he's unreadable rather than lynching Norwegian whom you actually scumlean and would thereby FYPOV have a higher probability of flipping red? You know that if Clem turns out to be town this'll reflect really badly on you, right?

I want to change my vote and I've decided on
VOTE: cycle men
for their atrocious entrance.

Their entrance was 1 000 000% their meta and not remotely AI.
Why are people joining the wagon without engaging my reasoning? Do you agree or disagree and why?

could someone summarize the clemency case for me? im sorta null on the slot... maybe worth a wagon? but i dont see why we are at L-1 and attempting to hammer.

My 588 was the most comprehensive attempt at a case. Look at entry 5 under the wagon analysis spoiler. Then get back to me on whether he's still null for you.

and i see literally nothing in clemency's iso to merit a wagon or really anything other than a null read, unless yall are doing some meta analysis that i missed. whats is goings on?

Deimos, Isis, and Looker have all said things about Cycle Men that, together, looked right for a vote.

I scumread him. Isis said he's unreadable. These are directly in contradiction with each other and you can't use their conjunction as evidence for your vote; you have to pick one. Are you now townreading me?

[Deimos27]

Are you now townreading me?

lol, no, you're back to null.

My reason to vote you loses much of its luster when you were V/LA and that was a legitimate reason explaining your pbp catch up presence, which led to a deficit in what looked to me like legitimate hunting.

We'll see where you go from here.

I'm going to need you to explain your vote in more detail then, because you were ambivalent about my reasoning apart from the wagon analysis bit, which was fundamentally predicated on town!Deimos = True, as you seemed to admit already in 783 ("if you assume Deimos is town..."). How is it then that my wagon analysis is what convinced you most?

[Deimos27]

Because I haven't seen anything Ali do to be vote-worthy, and I still read her town.

I'm pretty sure Alisae's 1128 is scum-indicative, and that's what ABR picked up on.

[Deimos27]

Cycle Men is still the best lynch though, don't know why we're not doing that first.

[Deimos27]

First, and I said this before, I agree with Deimos' read on Clemency's offbeat comment on his wagon here. I haven't seen him make similar comments on other wagons, so it's not his usual behavior. It's indicative of TMI or scum defending a buddy.

So I scumread him, but I have reservations because he has no counterwagons and I didn't like NorwEE, GC, Elements. So I was betting that if I was right in at least 1/3 of my scumreads, he's probably town.

At L-1, he was about to give up and give no assoc reads — saying he is bad at this game. Okay.

A counterwagon opens around NorwEE. He doesn't take it.

An argument can be made that he is town because there's no reason. But there is.

Clemency is always at a high risk of a lynch, as town or scum. Scum!Celemency knows that he's not getting away from a lynch, regardless of what the town thinks about him.

With that in mind, Scum!Celemency will make town!NorwEE look better and risk a potential mislynch for his scumteam by switching to his wagon. When he is a strong lynch potential at anytime, why would he help town!NorwEE here?

Scum!Clemency will also prefer to not aid the lynch of scum!NorwEE, who has a better fighting chance than he has.

At least town!Celemency has a reason to pursue a NorwEE lynch. He has no idea here what NorwEE will flip and he'll be game to see where the wagon leads to — bonus points for scumreading the slot in the firstplace.

Instead he doesn't take it.

I don't buy that he finds Ali, Me, and Isis scummy for building a NorwEE wagon, a person he scumreads, when he knows he's town. I don't believe he finds it scummy that I'm pressuring him to vote at 24 hours left in the day. If we're scum, we could have just mislynched him and it would have been easy. He would understand that. But what he did here? That's just not an organic progression.

Cycle men you weren’t this active or solvey before. What changed?

i dont like speaking for myself in this regard but activating midway through a game is very consistently my meta

This isn't really what I found in most of his town games. He would remain consistently difficult throughout the day in his town games. But I'm open to being proven wrong.

He also apparently scumreads Firebringer when he made that vote in RVS and his Firebringer read is "Firebringer is Firebringer".

So there.

This is an excellent post and only strengthens my sr of him.
Even if Clem somehow flips green we get associatives on approximately everyone under the sun.

[Deimos27]

Spoiler:

First, and I said this before, I agree with Deimos' read on Clemency's offbeat comment on his wagon here. I haven't seen him make similar comments on other wagons, so it's not his usual behavior. It's indicative of TMI or scum defending a buddy.

So I scumread him, but I have reservations because he has no counterwagons and I didn't like NorwEE, GC, Elements. So I was betting that if I was right in at least 1/3 of my scumreads, he's probably town.

At L-1, he was about to give up and give no assoc reads — saying he is bad at this game. Okay.

A counterwagon opens around NorwEE. He doesn't take it.

An argument can be made that he is town because there's no reason. But there is.

Clemency is always at a high risk of a lynch, as town or scum. Scum!Celemency knows that he's not getting away from a lynch, regardless of what the town thinks about him.

With that in mind, Scum!Celemency will make town!NorwEE look better and risk a potential mislynch for his scumteam by switching to his wagon. When he is a strong lynch potential at anytime, why would he help town!NorwEE here?

Scum!Clemency will also prefer to not aid the lynch of scum!NorwEE, who has a better fighting chance than he has.

At least town!Celemency has a reason to pursue a NorwEE lynch. He has no idea here what NorwEE will flip and he'll be game to see where the wagon leads to — bonus points for scumreading the slot in the firstplace.

Instead he doesn't take it.

I don't buy that he finds Ali, Me, and Isis scummy for building a NorwEE wagon, a person he scumreads, when he knows he's town. I don't believe he finds it scummy that I'm pressuring him to vote at 24 hours left in the day. If we're scum, we could have just mislynched him and it would have been easy. He would understand that. But what he did here? That's just not an organic progression.

Cycle men you weren’t this active or solvey before. What changed?

i dont like speaking for myself in this regard but activating midway through a game is very consistently my meta

This isn't really what I found in most of his town games. He would remain consistently difficult throughout the day in his town games. But I'm open to being proven wrong.

He also apparently scumreads Firebringer when he made that vote in RVS and his Firebringer read is "Firebringer is Firebringer".

So there.

This is an excellent post and only strengthens my sr of him.
Even if Clem somehow flips green we get associatives on approximately everyone under the sun.

if we make posts that are way too long, can we please spoiler them? if we quote posts that are way too long, can we please spoiler them?
cycle men isnt the worst lynch. but ali, elements, norway, and crayons are all better lynches. why lynch a null read with bullshit posts that will give bullshit associations when we could lynch a scum read with legit associations.

I've been quite liberal with the spoilers so far, if you haven't noticed, but point taken. Votato, my earlier post tag for 588 linked to 558 for some reason, which is why it looked like it wasn't even my post. Now you're here, go to 588, look under the wagon analysis spoiler at point 5, and tell me if you still nullread Cycle Men.

What part of HEM's case do you disagree with?

[Deimos27]

@Norwegian, use your words and explain to me the Elements wagon. All I see in your iso is a naked vote.

[Deimos27]

If you actually want to convince me to vote someone other than Cycle Men today you're either gonna have to elaborate on that defense of him (and why HEM's interpretation of his failure to move onto Norwegian wagon isn't scum-indicative) or you're gonna have to make a hell of a case for whoever your lynch of choice is. Preferably you should do a lot of both.

[Deimos27]

Cycle Men was lynched. He was a

Mafia Goon

.

Hellz
to the Yeez
I feel validated

I'm relatively convinced Crayons is town now. Norwegian might just be town too.
AMA

[Deimos27]

Because I haven't seen anything Ali do to be vote-worthy, and I still read her town.

I'm pretty sure Alisae's 1128 is scum-indicative, and that's what ABR picked up on.

literally how

Let me walk you through it.
The town motivation you list for town!Alisae for voting a townread is that you get info on the accuracy of your reads.
You gain the exact same info from lynching a scumread. The player either flips the way you thought or they don't.
Lynching your townreads is playing against town win con.

The motivation for scum!Alisae was there regardless of Clemency's alignment.
If he's town, you want to lock in the mislynch.
If he's scum, by the time he's L-1 at this stage it's likely he's getting lynched anyway and you want to get the towncred.

[Deimos27]

VOTE: ABR L-2
I'm agreed that this slot is the first priority for pressure at this point.

@ABR, if you were so convinced that Clemency was town, why didn't you state why and try to convince someone to swing Elements? You had potential influence there considering how many players have expressed respect for you.

[Deimos27]

Okay this is just for me because maybe I can't even read VCs still.

Spoiler: elements counterwagon

Votecount 1.30

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (5)	Deimos27 (588), Green Crayons (720), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Elements (999)
humaneatingmonkey (2)	Cycle Men (897), NorwegianboyEE (916)
Firebringer (2)	votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813)
NorwegianboyEE (1)	Looker (456)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Isis (1)	Alisae (994)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

No elements votes. Then:

Votecount 1.31

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (4)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Elements (999)
Firebringer (2)	votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Green Crayons (1024)
Elements (2)	Cycle Men (1002), Alisae (1021)
humaneatingmonkey (1)	NorwegianboyEE (916)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

Note that the idea was Ali's, but Cycle was happy to lead the way:

unless we gonna flashwagon Elements
Im down for that

fuck it im down

Those lonely two stay on the Elements wagon until Norwegian joins:

Votecount 1.34

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (4)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Elements (999)
Elements (3)	Cycle Men (1002), Alisae (1021), NorwegianboyEE (1101)
Firebringer (2)	votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Green Crayons (1024)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

The reason is <file not found>:

VOTE: Elements
I’m fine here now.

Elements then jumps off the cycle wagon to vote Ali:

Votecount 1.36

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (3)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904)
Elements (3)	Cycle Men (1002), Alisae (1021), NorwegianboyEE (1101)
Firebringer (2)	votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Green Crayons (1024)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Alisae (1)	Elements (1147)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

TBH I'm not sure why Elements voted for Ali here, something about this post:

idunno who ur talking about but I like Cycle Men because as scum this is a push that doesn't really make sense if norwee is town, and if norwee is scum it doesn't make sense to support him on a bad theory, also he would probably be hesistant to considering he is also a lynch and the person being lynched by isis and monkey, so if he flips scum then norwee would probably just get lynched anyways.

who is this directed at

Anyway, Elements' change in vote puts both Cycle and Elements at 3 votes each, which Cycle criticizes:

ok good diversion

Elements goes back to Cycle, but then jumps off again:

Votecount 1.37

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (4)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Elements (1152)
Elements (3)	Cycle Men (1002), Alisae (1021), NorwegianboyEE (1101)
Firebringer (2)	votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Green Crayons (1024)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

Votecount 1.38

Target	Wagon
Elements (4)	Cycle Men (1002), Alisae (1021), NorwegianboyEE (1101), votato (1187)
Cycle Men (3)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Green Crayons (1024)
Alisae (2)	Elements (1199), Albert B. Rampage (813)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

I'm not sure why he voted cycle again (he said I was very convincing in Post 1151, the post right before his 1152 cycle vote, but at that time I wasn't voting Cycle).

At any rate, you'll note that votato joined the Elements wagon (tying Elements and Cycle wagons) a few posts before Elements jumped off Cycle (to put Elements-wagon in a 1-vote lead).

votato's reason for voting Elements:

chill out people, jeez. VOTE: elements.

my take is that people spammed the thread wayyyy too much. At least now we have people split into two camps basically. I think there might well be at least one scum on each wagon, and im not sure i like most of the reasoning behind peoples votes. but at least now if we have a lynch we will learn something. i dont really like alisae, elements, crayon, isis, or firebringer. isis is a weaker scumread. cyclemen is being strange but im not sure what to make of it yet. im fine with leaving cyclemen alive to gather more info. norway is also unclear for me, but the association with ali should help clarify once one of them flips.

like i said, i think cycle men is fine to save for later when we have more info.

i think people who ask people to tell them what they think about their vote are generally scummy. I'm also not sure i follow your progression that leads you to change your vote. It almost seems like your vote changes with the way the wind is blowing rather than as your reads shift.

Note that there's not really a reason for voting Elements. Just a reason to not vote for Cycle. And the person he's criticizing for lack of progression in 1192 is human (which in itself isn't AI, but it's another person he's attacking without giving any justification for his Elements vote).

Anyway. This VC holds for a while until we finally get the ultimate Cycle-vs-Elements wagons:

Votecount 1.39

Target	Wagon
Elements (4)	Cycle Men (1002), Alisae (1021), NorwegianboyEE (1101), votato (1187)
Cycle Men (3)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Green Crayons (1024)
Alisae (2)	Elements (1199), Albert B. Rampage (813)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

Votecount 1.40

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (6)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Firebringer (1234), Green Crayons (1240), Elements (1245)
Elements (4)	Cycle Men (1002), Alisae (1021), NorwegianboyEE (1101), votato (1187)
Alisae (1)	Albert B. Rampage (813)
NorwegianboyEE (1)	Looker (456)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

Votecount 1.41

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (6)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Firebringer (1234), Green Crayons (1240), Elements (1245)
Elements (5)	Cycle Men (1002), Alisae (1021), NorwegianboyEE (1101), votato (1187), Albert B. Rampage (1251)
NorwegianboyEE (1)	Looker (456)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

Votecount 1.Final

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (7)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Firebringer (1234), Green Crayons (1240), Elements (1245), Alisae (1289)
Elements (4)	Cycle Men (1002), NorwegianboyEE (1101), votato (1187), Albert B. Rampage (1251)
NorwegianboyEE (1)	Looker (456)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Cycle Men was lynched. He was a

Mafia Goon

.

Note that ABR changed his vote from Ali to Elements. No reason given:

VOTE: elements

But it was clearly because he didn't agree with a Cycle lynch:

Can you explain? Break my tunnel.

Your tunnel is based on nothing of value.

It's a bit odd to throw a vote onto a competing bandwagon, to try to push that competing bandwagon to a lynch instead of the one you disagree with, with you think no lynch is a viable option:

Let's see what this flip teaches us

VOTE: Cycle Men

Are people calling me scum because I wanna hammer something to make sure we have a lynch?
Lmao alright sure whatever

It doesn't matter if we no lynch its nightless.

My takeaways are:

1. Ali doesn't get town points for the hammer. She sat on Elements for a while and a final shift before Looker viewed the thread isn't AI.

But. Ali apparently didn't realize that Cycle voted for Elements before her, as she was asking Cycle to vote Elements in Post 1047 and Post 1049. This mistake was because of an inaccurate VC, as noted by mod comment in Post 1056. The fact that Ali's mistake appears tied to an incorrect VC leads me to believe that it was genuine.

So here's the Q: would Ali-scum follow Cycle-scum's vote onto Elements and call for Cycle-scum to vote Elements even though he already had--without knowing that Cycle-scum had actually made that vote when there is daytalk? I don't think so. I think scum pay close attention to what their teammates do, including keeping in mind what they post (like votes). I suppose it's possible that Ali-scum was lazy and only checked VCs (but VCs aren't necessarily up-to-date accurate); or that Ali-scum missed this if scumteam are like "okay let's try to not use daytalk as much as possible," but literally daytalk is their only advantage in this game so I'm not adopting that rationale as a basis to justify a potential scum theory.

Anyway. I'm feeling more secure about Ali-town, despite the weird Ali-Cycle-Norwegian mashup.


2. Norwegian, votato, and ABR all failed to actually give reasons for their Elements vote. votato gave reasons why he should be voting other people. ABR gave reasons why he shouldn't have voted Elements to counter the Cycle wagon. I think that makes each of them suspicious for their separate reasons.

As scum (typically) want to socially distance on votes, because Norwegian was the closest-in-time to Cycle-scum's Elements vote (skipping Ali), he's less suspicious. Also, while Norwegian didn't give a reason for his vote, he doesn't have extra baggage like votato or ABR.

I don't really know which of votato's (giving reasons to vote other players) or ABR's (giving reasons to not join the Elements counterwagon) additional baggage is more suspicious. I'm disinclined to believe that 3 scum were on the Elements-wagon, though, so they're both on my shortlist for today.


3. Looker has limited access relative to everyone else, and so his lack of involvement in all of these goings on is not AI.

Isis, can I get a metaread on Elements and check if he's still playing to his town meta?

He's playing townier than his town meta and I'm confused. I mean maybe that's a bad thing because I felt like to some extent his scumwin featured him adhering to orthodox play people want to see. He's convincing me it's organic here, though.

I definitely can't say "he's playing to his town meta here", Ank explained me this really tricky way to townread him in fusion that I had to read like 4 times to understand, then it made sense to me and I was happy sheeping it all the way to postgame discussion, but my understanding of it was fleeting enough I don't remember it quite. But it definitely wasn't, like, "look at this relatively orthodox postflip solve"

Whatever you do, don't ask Elements to meta himself please, he might get modkilled, continue directing questions to me

I have 20 pages to catch up on again oh lord

[Deimos27]

Those quotes were not intentional

[Deimos27]

my scumreaad of deimos is returning. I think he is in that scum territory of having a hard time to catch up to the game. A player like him would be rejuvenated by scum flip to solve and he is dropping off hard.

Good sir.
I have exams in a week. I play evenings, and evenings only, and preferably just for an hour or two. When the timespan between one evening and the next involves 20 new pages of content, I think it is understandable to be a pinch overwhelmed. Analysis is high-effort.

Alas, I am still here, and I have finished catching up. And woe be unto my sleep schedule because I will be providing on that analysis next.

[Deimos27]

No need yet, I'm still posting daily. Will probs have to by next weekend.

[Deimos27]

Spoiler: Alisae 1409

Because I haven't seen anything Ali do to be vote-worthy, and I still read her town.

I'm pretty sure Alisae's 1128 is scum-indicative, and that's what ABR picked up on.

literally how

Let me walk you through it.
The town motivation you list for town!Alisae for voting a townread is that you get info on the accuracy of your reads.
You gain the exact same info from lynching a scumread. The player either flips the way you thought or they don't.
Lynching your townreads is playing against town win con.

The motivation for scum!Alisae was there regardless of Clemency's alignment.
If he's town, you want to lock in the mislynch.
If he's scum, by the time he's L-1 at this stage it's likely he's getting lynched anyway and you want to get the towncred.

its deadline and its better to make sure we have a lynch thats secured then no lynch

It's not obvious that no lynch there is worse than lynching your townread, but I'll grant it because I don't think it matters.
You were scumreading Elements. Elements was L-2 and a totally plausible lynch there still as well but you were happy to lynch your townread instead. How is that better?

like I actually townread ABR because I thought his reads were townie
hammered him anyways

There was still plenty to be analysed D2, from figuring out the strong associatives to VCA etc. Like even if deciding to hammer a wagon within about 24 hours of the day beginning can be attributed to hypermemeing town!Alisae, when do you

ever

do that to a townread? You explained that we have room for mislynches, but what is the purpose of wasting that room on lynching townreads when you can be lynching scumreads? It's just objectively worse.

Spoiler: Alisae 1691

VOTE: NorwEE

Let's go.

you guys are lame
VOTE: Norwee

This is where it all starts.

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey
im keeping this here for the day

Cycle Men votes Monkey and in return, Monkey OMGUS' Cycle Men.

VOTE: Cycle Men

Okay bro

VOTE: Cycle Men

Like when you post and come with theories maybe turn on your brain a little bit, yeah?

pedit: My arguement against it is that it is stupid, not realistic, and excessive, and I am questioning if you are either scum or just bad.
and honestly
this makes me lean towards bad the more I think about it because this whole fucking take on me is just stupid unless you genuinely believe it.

Then I have a huge interaction with Clemency at the end of it, I come to a townread on Cycle Men.
I'm not quoting the whole interaction because it doesn't matter. What is relevant is that after an interaction, I am townreading Cycle Men and during this time, I am still trying to push Norwee

Alisae, why is Mr. Inorganic and Mr. Sheeps-a-lot town?

I'm still trying to push Norwee and monkey is not at all interested in it. He wants to bus Cycle Men as seen in his next post.

I want to be clear. I'm not finding Looker, GC, Elements, and NorwEE as hard to sort. I am sorting them as likely scum. But I can be very wrong, and I think a flipped Cycle Men will help me be more right.

The only reason I didn't have Cycle Men as my primary lynch option earlier was the lack of counterwagon during that period. However, I can see merit in Deimos' push against him. But now I see that the paranoia around it is outweighed by the uncertainty Cycle Men will bring me later in the game.

So Cycle Men it is.

Yes, Alisae, I can be on the NorwEE wagon. But I also want this Cycle Men wagon to happen.

Now, I feel like Monkey made the decision to bus Cycle Men over Norwee because its just easier to bus the weaker player on your team.

However after this post, I tell him to vote Norwee here

Yes, Alisae, I can be on the NorwEE wagon. But I also want this Cycle Men wagon to happen.

vote
norwee

and at these next posts, he flat out just doesn't care about my Norwee scumread or acknowledge this post.

Okay I can buy that thank you for that

Although isn't sheeping exactly like voting based on trusting that the person you're following is town?

you know what
i hate you norwee (not actually just ur making this frustrating lmao)
i am going to admit
that i probably do not know how you play this game at all
i don't think i agree with it but this is giving me flashbacks to the normal where I had issues reading you and you reacted similarly
and now there is this seed of doubt that was planted

I think its Isis if ur town
VOTE: Isis

if you do that it's just going to be an inevitable cycle men lynch. Everyone wants a lynch and cycle men has the most so the people on it are most likely just gonna leave their votes there adn wait for everyone to panic move onto him.
I'm happy for a cycle or human lynch but i'd prefer the latter
VOTE: human

scrap that, human is pretty locktown for me now
VOTE: cycle

?????? how does this happen in a human brain
VOTE: elements

This is where Cycle Men decides he wants to push Elements and because I was scumreading Elements for his vote movements, I join him here

unless we gonna flashwagon Elements
Im down for that

I'm evaluating whether or not Elements is town for the solve that no one has really took me up on the wagon I made around him, or scumread him because by his own admission he's been lynchable and yet no one other than me has really pushed him.

okay i like Elements now

Everything above this point is NAI since the version of events where this is town!HEM isn't accounted for.

Now look what's happening.
I am pushing a cw on town!Elements while scum!Cycle is still being wagoned.

I think there's still some chance Elements is scum but let's grant that assumption.

The best play that monkey could make here is to continue to push Cycle.
This is the best play for monkey because its at this point that the Cycle Men flip makes me look bad since we're both trying to mislynch town!Elements together. If he continues to push Cycle Men here, he can use the cred he got from the Cycle Men lynch as well as the fact that the Cycle Men flip makes me look terrible to try to lynch me after he lynches Cycle Men.
Lynching town!Elements here doesn't yield the same result. It doesn't boost his chances of winning aside from the fact that they need 1 less mislynch.

Lynching Cycle Men over town!Elements here boosts his chance to win the game because now he can use that flip to try to discredit me and lynch me.

This isn't remotely as obvious as it's painted as. Needing less mislynches to win the game is advancing scum win con. Getting a 1 for 1 trade of Clemency for Alisae doesn't reduce the number of required mislynches, and in fact hurts scum because they have one less life remaining to win those mislynches. So the only remaining benefit for scum!HEM in this world compared to the one where he lynches Elements is that he gets some arbitrary amount of towncred. Whether that's worth it for scum is

definitely

debatable.

In any case, Alisae is arguing from the premise that scum!HEM = True and showing that it coheres, rather than comparing it to how well town!HEM = True coheres. That's not how you genuinely scumhunt. That's pushing a narrative.

there is no town motivations in your actions.
town does not play this way.

this isn't really true

So now you have him defending Elements and getting me to lynch Cycle Men in these next posts.

Ali, why is Cycle Men town? You missed my question.

Cycle Men > NorwEE

Let's just get the flips, man.

This post was made after monkey interact with Cycle Men where he still maintains a scumread on Cycle Men.
When scum make the decision to bus, they will not get off track and they will not hop off. They want the bus to go through and they will do everything in their power to make it go through.
The rest of these posts are just him trying to push Cycle Men through

Why wouldn't town!HEM also try to push through Cycle Men wagon, when he has a strong scumread of it? You don't engage with the worlds where town!HEM = True at all, which is why it's so hard to take your case seriously.

no i recognize what you've done and i truly thank you for that. unfortunately i'm reading you as scum

nah. i don't buy that. i think town!you would recognize that it's very easy to scum to hammer you there and get away with it.

i think the more reasonable explanation is you're not worried about scum, because you're scum.

what do you think about my vote on cycle men? why do you like the elements wagon better than cycle men?

Don't you guys find it weird that like days ago, the L-1 wagon who no one hammered, is now very hard to push in deadline? Clemency is scum. Flip this slot.

Okay so whats the takeaway.

The takeaway is
- Elements is likely town based on Cycle Men pushing them and if Monkey flips scum, Monkey defending them. Its just the best position to take here.
- Monkey made the conscious decision to bus Cycle Men and is just doing the best they can to push the bus through. from 902 till lynch, he never gives another lynch the consideration or the light of day.

Correction: There is a world where scum!HEM makes the conscious decision to bus Cycle Men. This is an unhelpful observation, seeing as there is no reason to suspect that version of events over the one where scum!HEM opts to lynch Elements instead, nor all the town!HEM worlds where he tunnels onto his hard scumread.

- Also, he made the decision to bus Cycle Men because he did not want to vote Norwee for whatever reason. Like, after 902, he doesn't even consider the lynch.

---

Now the rest of this post is going to be dedicated to Norwee scum and mostly talking about my interactions with him today.

anyone out there think alisae will flip town?

Norwee why are you voting me

Because scum was bussing Cycle Men and you look suspicious.

Why do I look suspicious

—

okay but Cycle Men is town so just lynch Norwee with me, yeah?

I mean, this is the kind of shit all over your ISO. And then you switch over to Cycle Men when he's close to getting lynch and hammer for the towncred.

I did not lynch and hammer for towncred.
I lynched and hammered because in mafia games, there is a deadline, and using a no lynch on day 1 is not optimal.

If you are associating me with Cycle Men, why are you only reading my ISO by itself.
Why are you not taking into consideration Cycle Men’s posts?

In this post, I want Norwee to elaborate on his read on me because he's not really explaining himself and just saying general statements to just hide behind.
I also notice that he is only making comments about my ISO, and he is using associations to scumread me here.
The issue with that is, he is only considering half of the story. When you look at associations, you also have to consider the person who flipped scum as well.
And Norwee isn't doing that.

Also consider that Cycle Men was mostly afk and doing fuckall at the beginning. So it was a obvious teammate to buss since he really didn't up his game until he was put into L-1.

So why did I not want to bus him earlier in the game?

Norwee is talking about how he was doing fuckall nothing but before I came around to townreading him, I hardly even talk about him. And I'm certainly not pushing Cycle Men and saying "CYCLE MEN IS DOING FUCK ALL NOTHING HE NEEDS TO DIE" and this is what Norwee is trying to describe me doing.
So I ask him to talk about why I didn't bus him earlier in the game to see what he would come up with.
If he's town here, he would look at my ISO and realize that what he's saying doesn't make sense.
Instead he writes 1601 and I respond to it.

So why did I not want to bus him earlier in the game?

I think the late joiners on the wagon are more likely to be scum bussing. That includes you. You were defending him at first, before switching to voting him with a slightly awkward hammer when he was L-1. That's not a good enough reason to suspect you? You seem to be shading the people voting you more than you are actually trying to solve atm.

It’s not a good enough reason Norwee, and let me tell you why.
When I started to townread him was when he started playing the game.
You are taking this moment and this particular moment only and trying to suggest that I was defending my scumbuddy and decided to take an awkward hammer when he was at L-1.

Thats not a good enough reason because you are only evaluating that particular moment and nothing else.
You are not evaluating my read on him before he wanted to play the game, only after.
Also you are not taking into consideration that if scum decides “Hey, I wasn’t doing much earlier, but now I am invested into the game and actually want to play it,” that since they’re starting to play the game and take it seriously, that they CAN trick town into townreading them.

In the post I'm responding to, he basically doubles down on his theory and says that "WELL, THE LATE JOINERS ARE LIKELY TO BE BUSSING AND THAT MEANS YOU" and just doubling down on the fact I defended him and even tries to make the hammer just sound bad, completely leaving out the circumstances around the hammer (It was end of day and its better to lynch Day 1 then not lynch).

In this point, I am basically trying to describe how unnatural this take actually is.
He is also not taking into consideration that it is possible for me to just be wrong on Cycle Men.

I thought Norwegian's comments were fair. In a vacuum, being a late joiner is likelier gonna be bussing than being early and sticking on, because of the difference in information. You don't want a scumbuddy to die if it isn't necessary, so being part of building the wagon up and exerting pressure, at least without trying to hop off and defuse that pressure, is less common than hopping on late when the lynch is basically locked in for the towncred. At least this is how it has been in my experience and this is how I reason about it. The fact that this was late in the day doesn't work all that much in your favour for that reason. You being wrong on Cycle Men is plausible but wasn't part of his argument, since what he was complaining about was that you voting your townread, the player you've defended, is what is awkward.

You townread him when he was at the scummiest, and scumread him when he was at the towniest. That's not a natural progression Alisae.

When did I scumread him?

Quote the posts Norwee

in 1606 he says at some point I scumread Cycle Men after I townread him.
I tell him to quote the posts in which I actually scumread him because the truth is
I don't even scumread him
and he can't
instead he just doubles down on the read

You townread him when he was at the scummiest, and scumread him when he was at the towniest. That's not a natural progression Alisae.

When did I scumread him?

Quote the posts Norwee

Alright, call it fence-sitting. Call it whatever, you went from TR on Clemency, to changing your stance a lot, to deciding to TR him again and saying "he will probably flip town" after the hammer. Which is a typical scum way of appearing ignorant of the flips.

At this point, I have asked him so many questions that are aiming to try to show Norwee that his take on the events that happened in the game are just flat out wrong and I keep on asking him questions that challenge his views, but instead of re-evaluating and realizing that maybe he's fucking wrong, he comes to this conclusion.

He doesn't want to re-consider his point here because he as scum, sees me as lynchable and wants to keep on pushing it. He just changing his stance to suit his narative. The read itself is unnatural and Norwee is likely just scum trying to push someone he views as lynchable.

Again, I don't see how the read is all that unnatural. Much less confbiasy than your own stance on HEM, for example. Also I totally understand misremembering whether you scumread Clemency because you voted him early on and said he might be likelier to be scum if your townreads are correct and then in that back-and-forth you strongly implied that you thought what he was doing was scummy until you came to the opposite conclusion.

Responses within quote. Upshot is that Alisae is confbias hypertunneling on HEM and Norwegian, which isn't in itself AI (can in fact be sometimes town-indicative) but in this case lines up with eir self-professed scumgame of aggressive narrative pushing. Can someone with more experience with this player confirm if they tend to be this confbiasy as town too?

Ali makes this narrative that I haven't explained but it's really all over my ISO. check it.

Yeah, so I just reread D3 up to this post and you haven't explained it.

Like:

so we have a pattern. i'm not saying what, but there's a pattern.

let's get this obvscum out of the way VOTE: alisae

You obviously think Ali is scum because she hammered by Cycle and ABR. But you haven't spelled out why that makes her confscum like you claim.

Most of your posts against her aren't compelling.

Also, I know nobody is really paying attention to my homework, but I'm not convinced of a Cycle-Ali team based on this:

Spoiler: GC homework

1. Ali doesn't get town points for the hammer. She sat on Elements for a while and a final shift before Looker viewed the thread isn't AI.

But. Ali apparently didn't realize that Cycle voted for Elements before her, as she was asking Cycle to vote Elements in Post 1047 and Post 1049. This mistake was because of an inaccurate VC, as noted by mod comment in Post 1056. The fact that Ali's mistake appears tied to an incorrect VC leads me to believe that it was genuine.

So here's the Q: would Ali-scum follow Cycle-scum's vote onto Elements and call for Cycle-scum to vote Elements even though he already had--without knowing that Cycle-scum had actually made that vote when there is daytalk? I don't think so. I think scum pay close attention to what their teammates do, including keeping in mind what they post (like votes). I suppose it's possible that Ali-scum was lazy and only checked VCs (but VCs aren't necessarily up-to-date accurate); or that Ali-scum missed this if scumteam are like "okay let's try to not use daytalk as much as possible," but literally daytalk is their only advantage in this game so I'm not adopting that rationale as a basis to justify a potential scum theory.

Anyway. I'm feeling more secure about Ali-town, despite the weird Ali-Cycle-Norwegian mashup.

1. They hammered scum out of two competing wagons. Surface level analysis is that scum would stay on Elements wagon or choose to no lynch rather than hammer a buddy there, which is against their wincon. Hence hammering gives towncred. How deep in the WIFOM chain do you want to go when analysing scum motivation?

2. Why should the fact that Ali's comment appears next to a vote count make you believe it to be genuine, under your framework? It only affects town!Ali, not scum!Ali, since scum!Ali knows whether the vote happened regardless of whether the VC is correct, if they are hyperaware of scumbuddy behaviour, as you suggest. This can still be scum!Ali faking it, especially if they are actively daytalking and setting strats up. If they aren't actively daytalking, then, as you suggest, they might have genuinely missed their scumbuddy's behaviour. Like this is only very weakly AI at best.

[Deimos27]

Isis, Deimos, what is your stance on all this?

All what?

[Deimos27]

FB, GC, can you explain why Alisae is town because I'm really not seeing it. OK, the behaviour surrounding the Cycle Men wagon wasn't completely atrocious (though I'm still adamant it's scum-indicative), but surely the ABR hammer

was

.

[Deimos27]

I'm relatively convinced Crayons is town now. Norwegian might just be town too.
AMA

Disappointed nobody took me up on this, but I'll explain now that I thought Norwegian is town for his positioning around the Cycle Men wagon.

Spoiler: Norwegian

VOTE: Cycle Man
Weird posts.

Look at Cycle men’s ISO. LOOK AT IT.
If that slot is town then i can safely say gg. We lost.

Look at Cycle men’s ISO. LOOK AT IT.
If that slot is town then i can safely say gg. We lost.

Look at ABR's ISO. LOOK AT IT.
If that slot is town then i can safely say gg. We lost.

I disagree. ABR could be excused by inactivity due to being busy IRL. Meanwhile Cycle men has consistently posted garbage. Showing that they had the potential to make good posts, but did not.

Cycle Man

>joins the game, but not really

im sorry did you expect me to have the game solved in half an hour on page 2?
how hard are you gonna try and force this?

Bruh, your defense would look a lot better if you had posted anything at all that would advance the game prior to this.

keyword: pretending

So who are the ones pretending according to you?

You don't have reads, got it.

There are multiple slots in this game i’d be happy to see get policy lynched tbh.

I'm thinking we should find out who this Clemency guy is and lynch him. He looks pretty scummy.

Cycle man joins the battle, your mom, could go for a burger right now.

Yes, it’s a great entrance!

All this time Norwegian is pushing relatively hard (about as hard as can be expected from the memey low-effort playstyle he promised) and promoting a Cycle Men lynch. At this point it's still possible this is a planned bus to win towncred, but I think he commits rather heavily and for surprisingly long (all the way to L-1) before he, eventually, changes his mind, voting HEM and:

Cycle Men. Is it weird if i consider it town that you’re just as confused as i am?

Cycle men you weren’t this active or solvey before. What changed?

Cycle Men's behaviour did change: he became more active and started to effort somewhat, so I think this is a reasonable change in stance, especially seeing as Norwegian's main qualm with him appears to be his contentless jokeposting play. His mechanisms for the read are different than mine, which is why it feels consistent and natural to move off it.

If the plan was to bus the slot, it's still completely possible. Scum look too much at being consistent at how their reads look rather than being consistent with the reasoning behind their reads. There's reason to think scum!Norwegian here would continue to bus rather than move off, something town!Norwegian does probably almost every time with these lines of enquiry.

Element flip will give much more valuable information than Clemency in my opinion. This excessive concern against the initial wagon from Humaneatingmonkey is pretty weird.

At the end of the day he insists that Elements, whom he scumreads, is better than Cycle Men, whom he's less sure about now and has less clear associative tells according to him (at least regarding Alisae). Surface level analysis says this looks scummy for trying to avoid the Cycle Men lynch, which is why scum might be afraid to do so. In any case it's an awfully weak effort if he really wants to derail the wagon, which reflects his remaining uncertainty about the alignment of Cycle Men and how though he thinks Elements lynch is better, he doesn't think it's

that

much better. If the scum gameplan is to sacrifice Cycle Men, he'd be jumping on. If it's to mislynch, he'd fight at least a bit harder.

Upshot is he's quite consistent about the slot and with how he changes his mind, in ways I don't really expect from scum.

[Deimos27]

@Demios are you not convinced on scum!ali enough to vote?

I'm tl'ing FB and tr'ing GC so I wanted to see where their heads are at. I'll be leaving my vote on Ali before I go to bed if I'm not persuaded.

[Deimos27]

1. They hammered scum out of two competing wagons. Surface level analysis is that scum would stay on Elements wagon or choose to no lynch rather than hammer a buddy there, which is against their wincon. Hence hammering gives towncred. How deep in the WIFOM chain do you want to go when analysing scum motivation?

I don't understand what your point here is? I'm saying Ali doesn't get towncred for a hammer on a wagon she wasn't invested in, that she did just for a flip.

You appear to be arguing against that for some reason, saying that I should be giving her towncred?

I assumed you were saying the fact e doesn't get towncred is a reason why e wouldn't bus. I'm saying surface level analysis

does

imply towncred and that's reason to bus.

2. Why should the fact that Ali's comment appears next to a vote count make you believe it to be genuine, under your framework? It only affects town!Ali, not scum!Ali, since scum!Ali knows whether the vote happened regardless of whether the VC is correct, if they are hyperaware of scumbuddy behaviour, as you suggest. This can still be scum!Ali faking it, especially if they are actively daytalking and setting strats up. If they aren't actively daytalking, then, as you suggest, they might have genuinely missed their scumbuddy's behaviour. Like this is only very weakly AI at best.

I don't know if it's next to a VC, I just know that there were errors in the VC and so that's a reasonable reason to assume the source of confusion. And, as you point out, it's unlikely that Ali-scum would not be cognizant of where Cycle-scum had voted. Also, I don't see what the motivation is for Ali-scum to fake not knowing where Cycle-scum is voting, since it's such a small thing.

Your comment about how the error in the VC makes it look genuine I thought functioned as a way of dismissing the possibility of it being intentionally faked, since that's the only case in which it

isn't

genuine. I was saying it doesn't affect that probability at all.
How well known is this tell of awareness about scumbuddy behaviour? If it's known, this can totally be set up (at least in a fair proportion of the worlds where these players are active in daytalk). Even if it isn't known, this can be a genuine error from scum (at least in a fair proportion of the worlds where these players

aren't

active in daytalk). That's why I say it's a weak indicator of alignment.

[Deimos27]

FB, GC, can you explain why Alisae is town because I'm really not seeing it. OK, the behaviour surrounding the Cycle Men wagon wasn't completely atrocious (though I'm still adamant it's scum-indicative), but surely the ABR hammer was.

Ali says that her ABR hammer was to make herself look even more suspicious on purpose. I find that a hard pill to swallow, but I don't know what her scum motivation would be for the ABR hammer

because

it looks bad. Comically, if she *is* scum, some stupid gambit like a HME-Norwegian-Ali-Cycle team is not impossible.

But I generally like her suspicions (HME notwithstanding) and I see where she is coming from in D2 & 3.

Lock in the mislynch, play it off as lolhammer. People were broadly in favour of the lynch, so I can easily imagine em thinking e could get away with it.
At the very least there's gotta be more scum motivation than there is town motivation, right?

[Deimos27]

I hate the idea of reading lolhammers like that as even NAI because it means scum can get away with them in future. Super anti-town plays have to be read as scummy. We have to expect better play than that from townies.

[Deimos27]

Here's where my head is at readslist wise. Read top to bottom in terms of towniness.

Town:
HEM
GC
Norwegian
FB

Null:
Elements
Isis, Looker

Scum:
votato
Alisae

I'll make a point of trying to sort Isis/Looker tomorrow morning as well as weighing in on whatever developments occur overnight. I'll reserve the evening for schoolwork.

[Deimos27]

There is no scum motivation in defending me
And there is all of the scum motivation in the game to attack me

Your posting style has gotten really polemical. These are overgeneralizations, even if you are town.
Scum that thinks your lynch will go through without everyone needing to be on the wagon will happily commit a player to defense for the towncred.
Conversely, if you are a very difficult lynch, there is every possibility that scum would opt to leave you for later or even for endgame.

But I'd be surprised if I end up having to think about that very hard. You feel like you're flipping red.

[Deimos27]

I can potentially be placed at L-1 today but not anything higher assuming Deimos is the only one to vote me and thats no on else.

VOTE: Alisae L-1
Hammers without intent hang D4.
I'm off to bed now.

[Deimos27]

Do you care about anything I have to say or even want to consider having an open mind to me being town?

If this is addressed to me, I'll say that I thought I addressed your opinions relatively fairly and thoroughly. Please do continue to defend yourself if you think I haven't; I try my hardest to be open-minded and logical.

[Deimos27]

You think my case is me confbiasing and you’re unsure that that is part of my scumgame.
Yet ur still making the decision to vote me

You claimed that you aggressively push narratives as scum. If making a massive case that starts from the premise scum!HEM = True to prove scum!HEM = True isn't pushing a narrative, I don't know what is. But that was a miniscule element of my scumread on you, and I specifically asked for confirmation whether you tend towards the same behaviourism as town.

Lmao monkey I don’t twilight troll
I’m town

Honestly if you were town, you were so bad.

I just understand the game more then you and you can’t accept that.
Thats all there is to it really.

You have such good understanding of the game that you misread Cycle Men, then proceeded to hammer him even though you townread him, then proceeded to hammer ABR 24 hours into D2 when you townread him, then proceeded to hardtunnel HEM/Norwee with an incredibly confbias case that you didn't defend even after I went and riddled it with holes. We can talk about this post-game, but you were

not

thinking clearly and there is no world where this play is pro-town, no matter how much you insist on justifying it solely with your transcendent "understanding".

I just saw scum hardbus to transition to wanting to promote the counterwagon to them when they started to play the game

Ie they wanted to bus when the slot was doing nothing, and save it when the slot was doing things

Yet HEM attacked it vigorously after Norwee comes off, and you scumread

him

. Yet Norwee's posts before hammer showed a great deal of apathy about a Cycle Men lynch, with hardly a sign of wanting to save it.

[Deimos27]

ABR and Alisae flipping town mean I probably need to reassess some of my townreads.
GC, sell me on Norwegian.

I'm not convinced we can just vote inside the wagon and end the game. I thought the wagon had objective merit and could easily have been town-driven. Probably not a whole 2 scum outside it, though.

[Deimos27]

Why are you arguing with a dead person?

I'm annoyed both at Alisae's play and attitude there and would very much like to discuss it post-game.
These comments have relevance to the players still in the game too, though, in that it elaborates on my prior stance on Alisae and Norwegian.

I don't think just deadsheeping em is a good play. Putting weight on the reads of players that have flipped town is well and good, but you have to look at the reasoning and here it's clearly full of emotional confbias.

[Deimos27]

pls dont tell me we are actually lynching ali

id rather be lynched than effort.

FB, this reads as incredibly TMI, can you

please

elaborate on why you were townreading Alisae so I can go back to thinking you're town thanks.

[Deimos27]

Don’t gaslight me.

I’ve been pushing Norwegian, with varying strength, all game. In oft because I’ve been agreeing with Ali’s Norwegian-scum read all game.

Read the ISOs and vote Norwegian, or don’t.

I'm gaslighting you? That was not my intent at any point in time. I'll scour your iso here in a sec if you won't quote the posts yourself; I trust you have reasoning independent of Ali's to be on the wagon.

[Deimos27]

@Looker, what was your reasoning for voting Ali?
This ISO is confusing me, the Alisae vote felt like it came out of the blue.

Spoiler:

like looking at VCs a bit more, it does seem like ABR just didn’t want to bus Cycle Men.

In your opinion, how AI is a hammer?

What I am trying to get across is that Looker knows how I play as scum and should be able to identify the difference between that game and this game.

I know how you play with a single, shitty scum partner (hurling thinly-veiled insults at me in thread ), and with no daytalk.

no you're not
I want you to actually explain why that is scummy

Game aside, some players are

extremely

frustrating

Looker is a very easy read
when I was scum with him he didn't even make any real attempts to solve or play the game and when we were town together he correctly identified scum!noms in a way that was confident and he believed in himself and was actively trying to poke other slots and try to find the motivations of others.
I see the exact samething I did in that game in here.

I'm very susceptible to ego strokes.

---

• It's nearly impossible to keep up with all this

---

• @Green Crayons: I like the way you think. My signature's that way for a reason. You're validating my suspicions of Amrun, skitter30, nomnomnom, and so many other players that V/LA or get "angry" conveniently. You're definitely not alone on that one.
  
• @Firebringer: Are you taking into account individual players' post counts as either alignment?

like looking at VCs a bit more, it does seem like ABR just didn’t want to bus Cycle Men.

In your opinion, how AI is a hammer?

What I am trying to get across is that Looker knows how I play as scum and should be able to identify the difference between that game and this game.

I know how you play with a single, shitty scum partner (hurling thinly-veiled insults at me in thread ), and with no daytalk.

no you're not
I want you to actually explain why that is scummy

Game aside, some players are

extremely

frustrating

Looker is a very easy read
when I was scum with him he didn't even make any real attempts to solve or play the game and when we were town together he correctly identified scum!noms in a way that was confident and he believed in himself and was actively trying to poke other slots and try to find the motivations of others.
I see the exact samething I did in that game in here.

I'm very susceptible to ego strokes.

---

• It's nearly impossible to keep up with all this

---

• @Green Crayons: I like the way you think. My signature's that way for a reason. You're validating my suspicions of Amrun, skitter30, nomnomnom, and so many other players that V/LA or get "angry" conveniently. You're definitely not alone on that one.
  
• @Firebringer: Are you taking into account individual players' post counts as either alignment?

EBWOP: VOTE: Alisae

Looker
talk to me
why am I scum

I don't trust you hinging your alignment on me. That was a totally different game with different mechanics. And these shifting voting blocks are suspicious.

[Deimos27]

Isis, Deimos, votato--am I being stupid with this? It looks like scumteam daytalk coordination to me.

Spoiler: Cycle & Norwegian

NorwEE, GC, Elements, Looker

But I want you out of the game after the last page. You prove that you're impossible to sort, and I think you're better flipped than alive.

so you're saying half my scumteam was already on my wagon before your troupe turned back on me

Feels like Alisae just instructed their team to vote me based on the last page alone.

This is super weird. I thought Norweg came up with the idea that the Ail + HME + Isis were a scum group doing a group shift away from cycle to Norwegian. But it was actually Cycle in post 913--literally one minute before Norweg's 914--referring to "your troupe."

Like, the thing that I keep coming back to is that

Cycle first said that Ali/Human/Isis were a scum team switching from Cycle to Norwegian

ONE MINUTE LATER Norwegian in the very next post says that Ali/Human/Isis were a scum team, but doesn’t reference Cycle’s theory

Cycle later seemed to make it look like Norwegian’s idea

Cycle makes the idea look like Norwegian's in Post 935.
Norwegian doesn't refute that he thought the idea was Cycle in Post 1402.

I'll respond to this because I think it's the most interesting part of the Norwegian case. What I don't get is why 935 is Cycle making the idea look like Norwegian's. Cycle never accused Ali of making eir team vote Norwee - that was Norwee himself. It would be weirder if Cycle were to claim that accusation as his own and say something like "because I called you out on it", when he never did. And why would you expect either of them to be commenting on who came up with Ali+HEM+Isis being a scumteam? They are permitted to hold their own opinions on that independently.

If I had to summarize where your mistake is, I'd say it's in equivocating "Ali+Hem+Isis are scum" and "Ali commanded Hem + Isis to vote Norwegian" as ideas. They are distinct.

What's most important here is that Norwegian looks way too much like he's buddying Cycle. That's not scum behaviour here. If he didn't want Cycle to be lynched, he'd be defending him. He never does that. He merely imitates some of the thought processes and looks to be taking his side. Like I disagree that this is scum!Norwee who'd suddenly decided he didn't want a Cycle Men lynch. The way you avoid a lynch isn't by building some vague rapport and closeness, it's by appealing with logic and actually trying to persuade. What Norwee does is the opposite of orthodox scum distancing.

[Deimos27]

GC there are minor points made against Norwee littered throughout your ISO, and I don't even know what parts you still agree with or actually consider important.
I think the associative with Cycle Men is quite good reason to think he's town here. Can you at least do me the favour of quoting those posts you consider to make the crucial arguments in favour of scum!Norwee so I know where to focus my consideration?

[Deimos27]

They are permitted to hold their own opinions on that independently

Opinions that they vocalized within a literal minute of each other.

So maybe Norwee's idea was born out of Cycle's. Maybe they were both born out of the common cause of the actual blockvoting that occurred. I'm perfectly willing to grant the former, because I don't see why it matters.

That spontaneously formed simultaneously, with no supposed connection to the other when first articulated. But later on, each suggested a connection to the other player’s formulation of there being a scum team.

I just don't understand what you mean by connections here. What need did Norwee have to reference the fact that "ah yes, I agree with Cycle that there is a potential scumteam in this voting block"? And in what sense did each suggest a connection to the other player's formulation later on?

To use your own tactic, what town AI thing has Norwegian done, Deimos?

I thought I'd been pretty clear that I think (1) his voting patterns around the Cycle Men wagon and (2) his mirroring/buddying of Cycle in the quotes you've been talking about, are both town AI.

I admit that not everyone has the same playstyle but like what playstyle would Norwee be running there. Like I don't know his meta, maybe he's super AtE-focused as scum, but even then it's weird. Prevent Cycle Men lynch via pure belligerence? How does that work, you don't AtE by being obnoxious. How does buddying to Cycle make him less likely to be lynched, when the only contribution is two players being obnoxious rather than one? I don't see why scum!Norwee would do any of it.

[Deimos27]

I can do votato for now
VOTE: votato
There was most likely at least one scum on Elements wagon D1 unless Elements himself is scum.
I've been scumleaning this slot from the start and I'm not a fan of the positioning around any of the lynches so far.

[Deimos27]

I can swing for any of Elements/Isis/Looker too if given better reason than I think exists for votato lynch.

[Deimos27]

Seriously though does anyone have a read on Isis?
I even went through her meta and the upshot is: bus-heavy drunkposter
Regardless of alignment.
I haven't seen anything strongly AI either way so far.

[Deimos27]

Well not bus-heavy as town, obviously. But the point is that being on Cycle Men wagon isn't worth any towncred for her.
Isis can you also explain why you thought Alisae was such a bad lynch?
I'm paranoid about either this slot or FB being a TMI defender of what I thought was an objectively high percentage play with the Alisae lynch.

[Deimos27]

Demios, if you vote norwee and hem doesn't do would that make you consider them as a scum team?

Why would refusing to vote his townread be scum-indicative of HEM.
This isn't Alisae we're talking about.

[Deimos27]

Spoiler: GC 2179

I can do votato for now
VOTE: votato
There was most likely at least one scum on Elements wagon D1 unless Elements himself is scum.
I've been scumleaning this slot from the start and I'm not a fan of the positioning around any of the lynches so far.

There was most likely at least one scum on Elements wagon D1

at least one scum

:chinrub:

Votecount 1.Final

Elements

(4)

Cycle Men (1002)

, NorwegianboyEE (1101), votato (1187), Albert B. Rampage (1251)

I think it was quite clear that I meant

in addition to

Cycle Men.

Deimos have you articulated any of your votato suspicions in this game before 2055?

Multiple times in D1, when I also suggested that he was the best alternative lynch to Cycle Men.
You'll need to excuse me for not posting analysis of him in D2-D4 because each of these day phases has lasted an average of about one irl day and I've been focusing what analysis I articulate on the slots the game was centred around at the time. Furthermore, most people seemed to already agree with my votato scumread, so I didn't consider it as helpful.

Now I

was

fully expecting to case votato after coming back online, but instead we've managed to once again lynch a slot in not much time spent of day phase and while I'm offline to boot. It was a good lynch, it just didn't need to happen that fast. If votato is town as he says we need to slow down D5 cause scum has serious momentum with this repeated insta-mislynch business.

Spoiler: wagon thoughts

Sloppy wagon thoughts.

Votecount 1.Final

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (7)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Firebringer (1234), Green Crayons (1240), Elements (1245), Alisae (1289)
Elements (4)	Cycle Men (1002), NorwegianboyEE (1101), votato (1187), Albert B. Rampage (1251)
NorwegianboyEE (1)	Looker (456)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Cycle Men was lynched. He was a

Mafia Goon

.

Definitely one, maybe two:

I don't think we can rule out 3 scum on Cycle Men wagon, especially now we have two greenflips outside it. The scenario I'm thinking of where this is likeliest is when scum!Elements = True, rendering his wagon not a counterwagon at all.

Deimos
HME
Isis
FB
GC
Elements
Ali

If there's one, I suspect it to be in the long-term voters (Deimos, HME, Isis).
If there's two, I suspect it to be in the late voters (FB, GC, Elements, Ali).
I suspect only one because Norwegian jumped off.

I'm gonna need you to walk me through the mechanisms for these conclusions. Why does one busser imply long-term? Why do two bussers imply short-term? Is your suspicion of 1 only on the associative assumption that scum!Norwee = True?

- - - -

Votecount 2.Final

Target	Wagon
Albert B. Rampage (6)	humaneatingmonkey (1359), Elements (1366), Deimos27 (1373), Firebringer (1395), Green Crayons (1397), Alisae (1467)
Looker (1)	Albert B. Rampage (1345)
Alisae (1)	NorwegianboyEE (1387)
Firebringer (1)	Looker (1392)
Not Voting (2)	votato, Isis

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Albert B. Rampage was lynched. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Maybe one, unlikely two:

Elements
Deimos
FB
GC
Ali

ABR actual lynch didn't have good optics. I don't think scum would want to be on this wagon for a lynch. I don't think anyone was really on the wagon necessarily for a lynch (Ali excepting), but weren't sad about an ABR lynch actually happening (at least, that's me).

If it doesn't look like anyone was on the wagon for a lynch except Ali, that means the wagon had quite good optics and there's no reason to assume there's max one scum on it.

- - - -

Votecount 3.Final

Target	Wagon
Alisae (6)	humaneatingmonkey (1559), votato (1560), NorwegianboyEE (1583), Looker (1732), Deimos27 (1919), Elements (1958)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Alisae (1720), Firebringer (1721)
Not Voting (2)	Green Crayons, Isis

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Alisae was lynched. E was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Definitely one, maybe two:
HME
votato
Norwegian
Looker
Deimos
Elements

Ali was an optically good wagon to be on for scum.

It's not just about "optically good" and "optically bad", it's also about how much resistance there's expected to be to the wagon. Alisae wagon picked up steam quite quickly because she looked scummy, so there's plenty chance there'll be scum sitting outside and weakly defending it TMI for the towncred. All three scum being off it is rather unlikely, though.

Alisae had more objectively scummy material in thread, so scum doesn't have to commit as hard. ABR was a quick pressure wagon that turned into a lynch for little reason - which means it's harder for it to be town-driven and just as easy for scum to have plausible deniability.

Note that if not all three scum were on Ali, then FB, GC, or Isis is scum.

Fire, I want to locktown you and sheep your reads, but you don't really telegraph them and your "% chance in top 5 of activity" is really sketchy as hell.

What part of my reads have I not telegraphed? Besides like maybe GC? And Looker is taken from ali god read.

My scumreads are half POE and half I don't see anything strong to townread any of them on. So I can argue with u on any of them because the people I townread I am very confident on right now.

Well there's the Alisae read you never elaborated on, despite me specifically prompting you to:

Spoiler:

pls dont tell me we are actually lynching ali

id rather be lynched than effort.

FB, this reads as incredibly TMI, can you

please

elaborate on why you were townreading Alisae so I can go back to thinking you're town thanks.

Deimos townread has a different tack to it
and is even weaker
I like the way he plays so I really don't want to greenlynch him if he's green

Deimos looks like he is trying to lock in HEM to his pocket by agreeing with him so much on Ali.

I think it's quite clear from the reasoning I expressed why I agree with HEM on Ali. There are miles of confbias involved in calling that agreement buddying. You talk as though HEM didn't just

have good reasoning.

I don't think he is trying to pocket me but i still iffy on the deflection of my original scumread on him, when I start scumreading him again he still thinks i am town, or anything.

When did this deflection happen and who was I deflecting you onto?

He agreed basically with everything HEM said also but doesn't think I was possibly TMI with ali townread (as HEM would say) and then try to lynch him? I don't take him for a paranoid person but i would suspect he might consider that and he didn't. Less overt buddying? Idk, don't think he is actually attempting to buddy me. Don't think he thinks he needs me but thinks HEM might be the leader he can piggy off from since HEM is actually getting things done and I am shouting in the wind.

Me not considering TMI defenders of Ali is objectively incorrect, as I explicitly stated that consideration in multiple posts. It was HEM that responded to that with "I'm in the same camp". I stopped tl'ing you when you complained about Ali lynch without resisting it.

If you're town, it's time to consider town!Deimos POV instead of confbiasing on possible scum!Deimos motivation.
If you're town, it's time to start explaining your reads instead of looking like major TMI on every wagon.
You're infuriating me by not stating your reasoning on anything. Ali's town, Ali's town, Norwee's scum, Norwee's scum, sheep me please everyone. I'd explained why I thought both of those wasn't the case, but you wouldn't engage with me on it.

cause honestly #1542 gives me the heebeejeebees.

The concept itself I think is fine, stats are cool. But I'm incredulous he doesn't make the most basic realisation that applying his stats from 10:3 games to 8:4 artificially inflates apparent town density in any group of players he picks by a

lot

.

[Deimos27]

I don't think my reads have been too poor, but I do think I've been misreading the game as a whole at this point, and I have a suspicion of why that is.
I'll do VCA later to check that hypothesis.

[Deimos27]

I'd prefer to play this day slower to kill scum momentum and give myself sufficient time to think and re-read, what with how much schoolwork I have on my plate right now. The pace of this game D2 and after has resembled that of a speedrun.

FMPOV the number of people either on the wagon or de facto on the wagon means that if this is scum it's getting bussed by both scumpartners. Since not much of a case has been made against Norwee (and scum know that I'm town who defended him yesterday, and town needs all 5 members to be voting today if scum opts not to bus), I'm not convinced that would be necessary for them.

Deimos what u want me to engage u on exactly right now?

do u think norwee flips town right now?

I wanted you to engage me on Alisae D3 and Norwee D4. You can still redeem yourself by articulating your scumread on the latter so I can understand where you're even coming from with your reads.

i want deimos to scumread me so i can townread him lol

Why would scumreading you be town-indicative of me? On the contrary, I'm starting to lean town now with some of your recent posts. Can you explain your Firebringer tr? You said he has really good reads, but I know for a fact that he's wrong about me, for instance, and it's pretty hard to trust the reads of someone who is so reticent about their justification.

[Deimos27]

I miss Deimos and Elements.

Absence makes the heart grow fonder.
I'm at school right now so can't post much but I will try to do so in the evening despite numerous impending assignments.

Will probs go V/LA Friday through Monday so I can study for exams, but will nonetheless try to post daily.

[Deimos27]

Deimos if any of your schoolwork is math I will try to help you

I don't like you personally it just seems like it might slightly benefit my wincon

therefore I think you would not be allowed to PM and would have to post your math issues in the thread (or in the scum PT if we are scum together???)

I like math a lot

I have not been drinking right now.

Unfortunately maths is one of my strongest subjects. And I'm gonna assume you don't know enough Finnish to help with Finnish poetry. How much do you know about Nigerian postcolonial literature and Human Resources (the business function)?

Spoiler: 2711

i want deimos to scumread me so i can townread him lol

Why would scumreading you be town-indicative of me? On the contrary, I'm starting to lean town now with some of your recent posts. Can you explain your Firebringer tr? You said he has really good reads, but I know for a fact that he's wrong about me, for instance, and it's pretty hard to trust the reads of someone who is so reticent about their justification.

It's pretty impossible for me to interpret firebringer independent of meta. I prefer to read individual nuances of how Firebringer has played that kind of don't have much to do with wincon rather than try to sort him like a normal player and figure out whether he wants scum to win or wants town to win. That's because, uh, going to try really hard to keep cans of worms shut because i am constantly reconciling trying to like Firebringer with disliking people who don't play to wincon but he kind of doesn't (up to an including a case of scum selfkill).

So with that in mind, it's kind of irrelevant whether his reads are correct. It matters that he's making them and how he's making them. I think I could see him either townreading me or scumreading me if I rolled town against his scum (hasn't happened yet). But I don't see him wavering on a townread on me because it's not fun or memey.

In Alisae v Pine he played extremely antitown and everyone wanted to scumread him, and I mostly had him at 70% townlean all game based on him posting a joke about having scum PT access that I felt would give him pleasure if he did not have scum PT access and would fail to do so if he genuinely did. You can see his signature for an example of a "joke" that would give him pleasure if he had scum PT access. I felt like whether he was benefitting the town wincon was kind of irrelevant.

Here the tr is based on how the way he's constructed his townblock doesn't seem fun for him, and how I kind of don't think he'd find this game that fun as town, and how wavering on a TR of me definitely doesn't seem fun for scum!him (hard flipping on it does, but soft flipping on it seems so off). It's very specific and deliberate that I think the best explanation of him being scum is an utterly, complete, and entire town townblock he has presented to the thread as truth and would actually lose him the game if obeyed.

I think it's too late in the evening for me to figure out exactly how to probabilistically evaluate this information, especially relative to my uncertainty about

your

alignment, so I'll come back to it later. Seems to make sense but I don't know anything about FB's personality so it's like idk what he enjoys or how well he masks emotion.

Why are you all refusing to read GC? Am I being fucked with?

I have a townread on some of his D1 behaviour regarding the Cycle Men wagon, which I can go into if you wish. I generally don't resonate with his POV nor agree with his logic, but though that's psychologically disconcerting, I don't think it's scum-AI.

I wanted you to engage me on Alisae D3 and Norwee D4. You can still redeem yourself by articulating your scumread on the latter so I can understand where you're even coming from with your reads.

i think i already explained alisae townread? Alisae has a more of "in control" kind of play as scum. E never seemed to have control this whole game. E is also better at getting me to do what E wants when E is scum. None of that was present here. The flailing around while getting lynched, the unconvincing arguments. That is more town E than scum E. Scum E can convince me of things. Town E doesn't really.

I didn't ask for Alisae tr, I asked for Norwee sr. My use of the past tense there implied that you should have already engaged me on the days listed, rather than letting us mislynch your tr's with relative apathy.

also since when did i need to redeem myself?

In addition to my annoyance about your behaviour days 3 and 4, I'm also annoyed you initially dodged/missed my follow-up question about your Alisae read, and just now dodged/missed my question about your Norwee read.

I'd prefer to play this day slower to kill scum momentum

Why is it scum momentum?

Did you miss the part of the game where we instalynched three townies in about 5 rl days or less?
I think scum objectively has momentum.

I also have the more selfish reason of wanting long days so I can make smaller daily commitments with exams upcoming. Alternatively we could speedrun this game so its over by, say, the end of Saturday — before my exams even start. That outcome, however, seems risky and inconducive to my wincon.

[Deimos27]

I didn't ask for Alisae tr, I asked for Norwee sr. My use of the past tense there implied that you should have already engaged me on the days listed, rather than letting us mislynch your tr's with relative apathy.

okay well i also explained Norwee scumread. Do you wish for me to repeat myself?

In addition to my annoyance about your behaviour days 3 and 4, I'm also annoyed you initially dodged/missed my follow-up question about your Alisae read, and just now dodged/missed my question about your Norwee read.

Ive been engaging u as much as u go to engage with me. So his "ur dodging/missed" is like ???? U missed my explanation of Norwee scum.

Are u actually annoyed by this stuff or by me scumreading u?

I mean I just ISO'd you again and I still have no idea where you explained Norwee scum. Perhaps we have different definitions of what constitutes an explanation.
My recollection is that my annoyance was with your playstyle, not your play/scumread. So it wasn't a conscious element, anyway.

I can see maybe ur annoyed cause it seems like i have scumread u all game (and only in my inner thoughts did i ever put u at Null i never voiced it that u left my scumreads) but nothing ive seen from u tells me ur really town.

I never completely bought ur initial townread of me because I don't think u really thought about my scumcase (mostly cause u said u didn't even understand most of the post).
So now i almost want to go back to that response of just waving a townread of me for my scumcase on u originally.

Feel free to go back and look at it. I gave you a townlean not for anything to do with your reasoning, but for the fact that you chose to push me at all, which I thought would be suboptimal scumplay. Poor reasoning itself is NAI in a vacuum.

Like. Elements is trying to get at why Deimos is aching to slow things down.

I think that’s a good Q

Especially. Especially. When we all know that Norwegian is scum.

I mean. Did you see his last post. It’s a scum give up post. Tbf Deimos wanted to slow down before that post, but the Q is still warranted.

I explained quite clearly why I wanted to slow things down, but I'll elaborate even more. My real life situation is inconducive to playing the game of mafia right now, and though it's totally my fault for signing up for this game, I just wasn't really expecting this hyperposting pace. I didn't think it was fair for me to ask you guys to stall the game just to improve my own playing experience, so I offered some objective reasoning, which was that scum had momentum. This was partly an attempted rationalization of my own preferences, but I wouldn't have said it if I didn't think it would've benefited town. And I did feel that scum had little reason to hardbus scum!Norwee there, which they clearly disagreed with me on.

That said, I wasn't expecting people to give up on his lynch anymore, so I didn't bother fighting it very much. I mainly wanted time to get my own thoughts in order.

[Deimos27]

Spoiler: some VCA

Votecount 1.23

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (6)	NorwegianboyEE (155), Deimos27 (588), Isis (614), Elements (659), Green Crayons (720), Firebringer (721)
Firebringer (3)	Cycle Men (152), votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Alisae (647)
Elements (1)	humaneatingmonkey (663)
Not Voting (0)

Initial Cycle Men wagon that didn't get hammered. Not sure what to make of this except that if town!Firebringer then that shows Cycle Men had a tendency to counterwagon rather than flailbus scumpartners to hide associations, and would hence probably also imply town!Elements.

Votecount 1.Final

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (7)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Firebringer (1234), Green Crayons (1240), Elements (1245), Alisae (1289)
Elements (4)	Cycle Men (1002), NorwegianboyEE (1101), votato (1187), Albert B. Rampage (1251)
NorwegianboyEE (1)	Looker (456)
Not Voting (0)

Second scum on Elements probably improves the odds of this being a counterwagon and Elements being town. Which in turn somewhat increases the odds of Firebringer being town.
If Firebringer and Elements are both town, then scumteam has to be in Isis/GC/Looker/HEM. Which isn't great, seeing as I've had varying strengths of townread on 3 out of the 4.
Note Looker sitting on Norwee the whole time, which is probably somewhat town-indicative as well since I expect scum to be either (a) joining teammates on Elements wagon or (b) joining Cycle Men wagon for that towncred.

Votecount 2.Final

Target	Wagon
Albert B. Rampage (6)	humaneatingmonkey (1359), Elements (1366), Deimos27 (1373), Firebringer (1395), Green Crayons (1397), Alisae (1467)
Looker (1)	Albert B. Rampage (1345)
Alisae (1)	NorwegianboyEE (1387)
Firebringer (1)	Looker (1392)
Not Voting (2)	votato , Isis

Not much to say here. I still think ABR lynch was relatively optically good for scum, so it's probs slightly town-AI Isis and Looker aren't on it. (Ok, I see Isis here saying she would've been on it if she could've).

Votecount 3.Final

Target	Wagon
Alisae (6)	humaneatingmonkey (1559), votato (1560), NorwegianboyEE (1583), Looker (1732), Deimos27 (1919), Elements (1958)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Alisae (1720), Firebringer (1721)
Not Voting (2)	Green Crayons, Isis

I think HEM had better positioning on this lynch than Looker or Elements. I doubt how convincingly scum!HEM pulls of that tunnel. He was also a strong advocate of Cycle Men lynch and I've resonated with him a lot.

Votecount 4.Final

Target	Wagon
votato (5)	Deimos27 (2055), humaneatingmonkey (2154), Looker (2163), NorwegianboyEE (2186), Green Crayons (2249)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	votato (2082), Firebringer (2100)
Not Voting (5)	Elements (2059), Isis (2177)

Negative towncred to GC for swapping off Norwee to votato when there was no need to end that day prematurely.
I'd give FB towncred for sticking to the Norwee wagon if I didn't feel he wasn't nearly transparent enough about his votato tr nor his Norwee sr. Such unwillingness to argue his viewpoint seems too much like subtle TMI that would quite like the mislynch to go through first.

Votecount 5.Final

Target	Wagon
NorwegianboyEE (5)	Elements (2537), Firebringer (2538), Green Crayons (2540), Isis (2854), humaneatingmonkey (2863)
Green Crayons (1)	NorwegianboyEE (2577)
Not Voting (2)	Deimos27, Looker

It's probably full WIFOM to go about trying to determine whether Norwee would go on scum!GC here.

The evidence is incredibly equivocal this game.

I'm gonna say HEM has been towny enough throughout for me to commit to that read. Isis looks good in VCA and I like how she insists on not taking the towncred for some of these wagons (saying she would've been on ABR and votato). I have another tell on her as well that I identified earlier.

I see a world where this is something like GC/Looker, but I also see a world where this is something like FB/Elements (where scum did a 2v2 split bus on each other D1).

[Deimos27]

Looker, do you have no other suspicions of HEM than just "running the show"?

[Deimos27]

what was the tell on me earlier, I don't remember

I alluded to it earlier but did not state it.

I liked you primarily for this answer to my question:

Why was Alisae such a bad lynch?

I did have the benefit of seeing Ali was twilight townposting. But lynching people not named Norwee or votato before I got my 2 cents in is pretty bad.

I am not sure I would have let Ali survive LyLo with the weight of the VCA of the first two days without further ability to townread what e was doing the rest of the game but I think way too much significance was getting given to the order of votes.

A big thing is I feel willing to bet this mafia game on Fire!town, and he was townreading Ali, and Firebringer has really good reads in the game of mafia, so that made it a pretty bad lynch

I think scum right after being accused of potential TMI would, if they opt to respond, do so with firm reasoning, wanting to prove that the information for their read existed in-thread. Instead you admit to having some bias due to the twilight posting and that you weren't strictly townreading Ali, just thought that the lynch was inferior to other alternatives. It wasn't what I expected, and I thought it was a far more understandable, townier perspective than if you had gone for the former strategy.

Then you gave a very strong tr of Firebringer without justification, which I don't see as natural coming from a scum POV, since it would've been super obviously at risk of just coming off as TMI again.

[Deimos27]

I kinda wanna kill verdant Crayola

if Green Crayons is mafia I can upgrade my Firebringer townread to townlock.

I'd be willing to go for him rn solely for the reason that nothing really jumps out at me in this game atm except GC's votato hammer.

[Deimos27]

I see a world where this is something like GC/Looker, but I also see a world where this is something like FB/Elements (where scum did a 2v2 split bus on each other D1).

how does a team of me/elements work if i am bussing both norwee and elements and explicitly taking myself out of the final 4 players?

Eh, I forgot that you were voting Elements, that does make that theory weird.
FB/GC is more feasible but would require Cycle Men to transition from bussing to counterwagoning for whatever reason (activating and deciding he actually wanted to survive?)

Maybe this is just Looker/GC after all.

P-Edit: Townreading HEM is a pretty weird way to try to make people think he's scum. I still harbour doubts about you though so ofc I'm expressing them.

[Deimos27]

Looker, do you have no other suspicions of HEM than just "running the show"?

is this just questioning read or was i reading into it?

I asked that question to help read Looker, not because I expect it will change my read on HEM.

[Deimos27]

Deimos how long do you have until your finals? Hyperdeliver so we have something to look at after your death plox

They're not my finals, though they're basically just as important since they will determine my predicted grades with which I apply to uni.
They start Monday, which is why I'm trying to deliver right now so I can dedicate the weekend to studying.

Speaking of which,

@NSG

, I'll be

V/LA

Saturday through Monday.

I won't extend it any longer than that but I don't promise super high effort posting in the middle of next week.

[Deimos27]

Deimos, if we lynch in this order:

Deimos > GC > Looker

Do you think we will win?

If I were to just ballpark where my head is at in terms of confidence, I'd say that lynch order gives about 55-60% chance of winning immediately and 80% chance of winning overall (since we'd still have another two lynches left if only one of GC/Looker is scum). No maths was involved in arriving at these numbers.

[Deimos27]

i guess we can consider this game on hold until next week????

i am fine with leaving this game alone for a week.

I am also fine with leaving this game alone for a week. more time to deliver this ultra long post i'm doing

I'd feel really bad for single-handedly postponing your gameplay, but this would be a significant relief.

[Deimos27]

No amount of high school maths prepares you for assigning probabilities to players being scum in a game of mafia.

[Deimos27]

Looker has ok-ish VCA but that's about the only thing going for him. Then I see some of the players here who actually have experience with him townreading him and it's like ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'd be ok with Looker lynch myself.

[Deimos27]

You never did send me that friend request, HEM

It's 2am now so I'm gonna go to sleep. Will try to check in once or twice over the weekend.

[Deimos27]

Last test this week = over. One more lesson, and then I'm free the rest of today to focus on this game.
Sorry for my extended absence.

[Deimos27]

HEM your Isis case is hell to follow due to the lack of [post] links. I scrolled through just the first few points and I already disagree with your characterisation.
Can you save me time and summarize what you think the strongest reasons are to believe Isis is scum (top 3, for instance)?

[Deimos27]

Still think Elements' ISO is horrendous but in addition to D1 final VC, isn't this original instance of Norwee redirecting momentum onto Elements really weird if he's scum? There was three-way tie FB/Norwee/Elements for the competing wagon to Cycle Men, and Norwee broke the tie by going onto Elements. I doubt this tie breaks onto scum rather than town too many times in 10.

Spoiler:

Votecount 1.33

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (4)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Elements (999)
Firebringer (2)	votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Green Crayons (1024)
Elements (2)	Cycle Men (1002), Alisae (1021)
humaneatingmonkey (1)	NorwegianboyEE (916)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

Votecount 1.34

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (4)	Deimos27 (588), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904), Elements (999)
Elements (3)	Cycle Men (1002), Alisae (1021), NorwegianboyEE (1101)
Firebringer (2)	votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Green Crayons (1024)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

[Deimos27]

Really weird, but not impossible.

What do you think was the flaw in your VCA defense for Norwee?

I usually maintain that to soft-defend the redflip is a towntell because if scum is willing to accept the bad association that results from making that read, they generally want to at least get the returns of preventing the lynch in the short-term, but soft defense is very weak manipulation of gamestate. The short answer is that I didn't expect him to make such a poor play.

The less asshole, more intellectually rigorous answer is that I didn't successfully factor in some elements of his personality. Probably his hyper low-effort posting style should've tipped me off that the tell doesn't apply here, because those brief comments about Cycle Men suddenly being town-solvey or Elements being the better lynch could've genuinely been his best attempt at manipulating momentum.

This also means that scum, or at least Norwee, did in fact change their minds about bussing Cycle Men halfway through D1. Depending on how much we expect scum to be coordinating via daychat, that could also implicate late joiners on the wagon moreso than you or me who contributed to its rejuvenation.

[Deimos27]

My PoE is GC/FB/Looker but none of these slots seem obviously scummy to me. Elements looks optically bad but I don't think he makes sense with associations and VCA. Still stand by my HEM and Isis reads.

I'm sleep-deprived from studying and exams. Will take another crack at this in the morning.

[Deimos27]

Re-reading D1 I think my initial Deimos wagon analysis has renewed relevance because of ABR and votato townflips.

1. Firebringer
Firebringer has a fluffy meta that he has equity not to break as scum (correct me if I'm wrong that a long ISO analysis is rather uncharacteristic of him) unless he

needs

his wagon to catch traction or he

needs

to be townread. The top three wagons were tied against not-Firebringer. This means there was no real threat to him, and unless the scumteam is exactly Firebringer/Norwegian/votato/Green Crayons, scum!Firebringer had an easier target to push than Deimos.
Conclusion: scum!Firebringer -> unlikely

...

4. Green Crayons
His vote timing is weird because he checks with Firebringer first whether "scum raccoon" means voteworthy, and only joins after the other three votes, which comes off as potential opportunism. I also don't see how any of Firebringer's points demonstrate scum-indicative behaviour, but then again, I didn't see how HEM quoting three scumleans is town-indicative, so it could be I just operate on a very different wavelength than Crayons. And there's plenty of town motivation to pressure me into producing a readslist and vote.
Conclusion: NAI

The wagon didn't last that long, but the fact that it didn't get further than L-3 still increases the likelihood that there's at least one scum on it. Out of GC/FB, GC's push felt far more opportunistic — checking first for others to initiate the wagon (358) before joining in with what amounts to a naked vote (404). The possible town motivation I give in this quote (pressuring me into providing an explicit readslist and vote) doesn't seem correct because it's not how GC explained himself. The probabilities to weigh are therefore {GC is opportunistic scum} vs {GC is town that scumread Deimos} but his whole case about me being IIoA and not pushing my reads, when all my catch-up was chock-full of analysis and questioning people (the purpose of which is precisely to develop my reads, if not to "push" them), is still bizarre to me.

That in itself probably isn't strongly AI, but the point is that my wagon stalling at L-3 increases the probability of there being scum on it and with ABR + votato cleared that extra probability is funneled into FB/GC, which should tip the scales towards this play being somewhat scum-indicative.

Later when GC places his initial L-2 vote on Cycle Men we had that little back-and-forth about his reasoning for it and it still doesn't sit well with me that it's based on the associative assumption that I am town, because if you are genuinely uncertain about my alignment (which should be 67% from his POV) and the part of my case you're relying on is only scum-indicative when town!Deimos = True then that

seriously

waters down the scum-indicativeness of Cycle Men's comment — so it looks like GC proclaiming a nullread on me is inconsistent with the level of confidence in my alignment that his play indicates. Which could imply scum cogdis between factual knowledge of my alignment and feigned uncertainty about my alignment.

I settled on a townread on that interaction in an earlier re-read because I thought it wouldn't make sense for scum!GC to force this convoluted justification to bus his own buddy, when he could just be pushing town (my assumption being that scum wouldn't bus unless there was such strong reasoning presented it couldn't be ignored), but now seeing as Norwee was on that wagon and this was before Cycle Men's "activation", it coheres perfectly with a scum-driven bus strategy.

[Deimos27]

I'm still re-reading but those are some of my thoughts so far.
Now is a pretty good time to use a no lynch tbh since we have less than a day left and still waiting on FB and HEM too.

[Deimos27]

Actually I might have to rethink that. Not sure if scum!Norwee brazenly calls out their scumbuddy for bussing a third teammate here. Does he really need to be distancing? Makes maybe more sense as setting up a frame on town!GC after Cycle redflip.

What convinced me most for the cycle vote is Deimos's wagon analysis. If you assume Deimos is town, I think the wagon analysis is the most convincing reason to vote someone.

I don't know, man. I'd need to ISO Elements before voting and I'm sort of being lazy and not doing that at the moment. Plus there's nobody else on that vote with you.

What do you think about a Norweig lynch?

If Cycle Man is scum then Green Crayons is bussing. This is pretty bad.

[Deimos27]

Not gonna actually place a vote on No Lynch because I have my last few exams Monday-Wednesday of next week and I'd rather let the deadline run out so the new one is later.

[Deimos27]

Deimos, aren't you a bit suspicious that Isis or I have pocketed you?

It's a weird question to answer, because my townreads aren't usually based on behaviour that could be explained by pocketing, so it's sort of a relevance fallacy to bring up suspicion of such when that would only apply in the worlds where you're scum, and I've already narrowed those down quite a bit. The only tool I can immediately think of that returns false positives from pocketers is resonance, but even that has often enough involved you making the initial case (e.g. against Alisae) for me to trust its accuracy.

If scum!HEM = True, then the strategy you're running is almost certainly to pocket me, sure, but I'm not gonna worry about that too much, because I've already determined scum!HEM = True is unlikely. I definitely wouldn't turn on you just for this half-baked "HEM is leading ergo HEM is scum" nonsense Looker is trying to push, I would want substantive evidence of scum-AI behaviour from you.

If scum!Isis, I doubt she's made any serious effort to pocket me. We've been pushing opposing viewpoints relatively often (Alisae, Norwee) and she's never committed to any kind of townread of me. The closest it gets is this weird "if Deimos is scum I want to lose this game" and "Deimos come scumread me" business. I'm glad she likes my playstyle (I like her playstyle too), but it's hard to see these comments being AI and they don't affect my townread of her so whatever.

[Deimos27]

I'm finding how the Cycle Men wagon broke down and rebuilt between VC 1.23 and VC 1.27 a fascinating re-read.

Spoiler:

Votecount 1.23

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (6)	NorwegianboyEE (155), Deimos27 (588), Isis (614), Elements (659), Green Crayons (720), Firebringer (721)
Firebringer (3)	Cycle Men (152), votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Alisae (647)
Elements (1)	humaneatingmonkey (663)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

Somewhere between this vc, and Norwee's next post where he moves his vote onto HEM, scum decided to abandon the Cycle lynch.

since no one is gonna hammer cycle men.

u all have to live with that:

VOTE: Votato

FB initiates the downfall of the Cycle wagon, after having kept his vote there for 4.5 hours. This felt a little premature at the time, and it still does, since some players hadn't posted yet and there was still plenty chance for a Cycle lynch to be locked in (as Alisae confirmed thereafter). But 4.5h isn't that short an amount of time either, and FB was promoting a hammer in between, which suggests this wasn't a pre-planned scum!FB fakehammer into unvote (I'd expect that to be more hasty, to avoid an unplanned hammer). The takeaway is that if scum!FB = True, this was probably the moment when their team decided to stop bussing Cycle. It would explain the sudden timing.

VOTE: fire
for now mostly to try to make EoD more interesting

Alisae contributes to Fire wagon, putting it at 4 votes with 3 town and 1 scum (all these players' alignments are known!)

VOTE: fire
now we got twoooo wagons

Elements joins in, swapping out Cycle as leading wagon for Fire. This supports the idea that Fire and Elements can't be scumbuddies because even if this is scum!Elements moving momentum away from the Cycle wagon it's pretty counterproductive to just be swapping it out for scum!FB. If town!FB and scum!Elements, this would be the moment where scum decided against a Cycle lynch, trying to swap it out for a Firebringer lynch instead, capitalizing on the outwards momentum created by FB and Alisae.

Monkey vote Norwee or Cycle Men
GC vote Norwee, you know you want to
Isis vote Norwee

VOTE: Norwee
This wagon is super possible people just need to use their fucking votes

VOTE: NorwEE

Let's go.

Slightly town-AI for HEM. If scum decided against bussing Cycle, it's counterproductive to swap into bussing Norwee.

but he's cute!!!

this doesn't even sort monkey because monkey is town no matter what norwee is

you guys are lame
VOTE: Norwee

Isis's positioning is anti- Norwee lynch so she can easily stay off that wagon without catching any flack. Switching onto Norwee contrary to the scumteam's apparent strategy and contrary to her positioning in the game makes limited sense for a bussing meta and not much sense at all for this gamestate. Probably slightly town-AI.

Votecount 1.25

Target	Wagon
Firebringer (4)	Cycle Men (152), votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813), Elements (854)
NorwegianboyEE (4)	Looker (456), Alisae (876), humaneatingmonkey (879), Isis (883)
Cycle Men (3)	NorwegianboyEE (155), Deimos27 (588), Green Crayons (720)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey
im keeping this here for the day

For some reason Cycle opts to sap momentum from the FB wagon, even though it's the only one competing with him and Norwee, to vote HEM instead. This is a very weird play if FB is town. I was initially quite skeptical of the possibility of all top three wagons being scum (as would be the case with scum!FB), but seeing as the FB wagon was town-driven with votato and ABR (and probably Elements too in the worlds where this is scum!FB), that becomes plausible.

VOTE: Cycle Men

Okay bro

VOTE: Cycle Men

Monkey, voting because hard to sort is just bad reasoning. If you have scumreads, push them.
I mean, i thought you scumread me. But you just find me hard to sort? Ok?

At this point Norwee subtly tries to dissuade HEM from voting himself or Cycle. We know that at this point at the latest scum decided against Cycle lynch:

VOTE: Humaneatingmonkey

Norwee joins Cycle on HEM. Again, why won't these players touch FB although it's the only wagon competing with Cycle/Norwee?
This is +scum FB and +town HEM.

Votecount 1.27

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (4)	Deimos27 (588), Green Crayons (720), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904)
Firebringer (3)	votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813), Elements (854)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Alisae (876)
humaneatingmonkey (2)	Cycle Men (897), NorwegianboyEE (916)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

Basically, this progression seems to implicate scum!FB or scum!Elements most strongly, out of which I think FB makes more sense because of Cycle and Norwee piling onto a vanity HEM wagon and thereby seemingly unnecessarily diverting momentum from FB.

I think I might have hit upon something here. Will put aside time tomorrow to continue my reading.

[Deimos27]

i am gonna layout my thoughts of recent in greater detail so people can understand where my mind is going.

Elements i think could be town, he could have posted that post about his meta and was worried about being modkilled because he was mod killed for claiming he did a trust tell before, which makes me a bit nervous. He still seems scum to me but now i can envision this game FMPOV that he is town. Problem with him to me is i think he still seems scummy to me but then Isis says town but is not confident in it (at least i don't think she is)

What I'm getting from the direction of your mind here is that you have a lot of reasons why Elements might be town, but he "seems scummy" and "Isis says town" with insufficient confidence. Needless to say, I'm not exactly inspired to be voting with you here.

[Deimos27]

Oh, this ended!
GGs everyone. It was a fun game, at the end of the day.
You did well, Looker.

[Deimos27]

Glad to hear such glowing reviews of our scum pt. I have something to feel proud of.

[Deimos27]

I'm amazed that NSG remembered me