Open 832: Nightless Exploder Pandemonium III - Game Over

[charlemagne]

i was completely unaware pavowski had posted and i suddenly have much better feelings for t3


UNVOTE: t3

VOTE: cow

serious vote, not a single post in this game has pinged me more than cow's entire iso, this post especially is +scum

[charlemagne]

a note about flashwagons while it's on my mind, no idea if this is insightful or not, feel free to disagree ofc

im kind of scared about leaving people at L-2 even in this game; i think when someone gets to L-2 there's a huge incentive for scum to just go in and hammer/build up the wagon/hope another townie joins, etc. Like let's say two wagons are developing on X and B and X, Y, Z are the scumteam. If X dies then mafia insta lose but if even in the absolute worst case if Y scumclaims and hammers B then X, Y will get blown up and Z at least still has a fighting chance. Like even if associatives get really really bad scum will do anything to make sure the wagon goes to someone else because horrible associatives > instaloss is my point. So as town our job is to not let these sort of situations get even close to happening by making sure wagons don't go to like 5 votes easily without strong reasoning/deadline scramble.

as far as an overall game strat take

i kind of just like the idea of drawing out/playing the Day 1 phase as opposed to keeping it contentless and purely memey (no offense to the memers y'all great too). I just remember as scum being really scared that town would elongate Day 1 and try to scumhunt, etc., while we were all in limbo of just not knowing if town would converge on one of us on D1, which is why we went for the meme-flashwagon strategy. Obviously at this point it doesn't look like scum is going to take that approach and that this game already looks different, etc., etc. but i think it may be helpful to keep in mind that scum are under a lot more pressure than us on D1 which is an advantage we lose the moment we end this phase - scum have a lot more to lose than us.

this is all maybe kind of obvious but for me at least worth keeping and mind and verbalizing

leantown on iv for basically this post alone, i remember them tryharding and analyzing on town in a way that i haven't seen them do as scum. obviously a light read because rvs
as for the actual analysis, hm. i agree with both where iv is coming from and the second part of the post; i'd argue that the meme flashwagon strategy in the last game was largely perpetuated by the town for funsies, because this IS something of a meme game, but i am in strong agreement that scum will have stronger tells and associatives this dayphase because of how badly a d1 elim screws them over. i am uncomfortable with precommitting to be careful putting people on l-2/l-1, because i think that the point of quick wagons for pressure is that they actually have teeth. every vote can and should be able to lead to an elimination, and i think that that pressure is the biggest way we discern town from scum in any +rand way this day phase. scum is gonna take the chances that come their way but outing a large part of the scumteam to eliminate townie x is probably a bad idea from their perspective when town is already more likely to be elimed.

also pagetop

[charlemagne]

clemency is slightly +scum because yes in fact you SHOULD have waited until d2 and not doing so was either a mistake or a calculation, and i think it's slightly +rand to be the latter
but cows is more scum and i will keep my vote there for right now

[charlemagne]

liking numberq, kind of been constant on cows (their posts have had me going back and forth a little bit), very uncomfortable with strangematter's posts in general because they seem "slippery" in a way that i think I'll be able to better elaborate when i'm less tired, but for now have a VOTE: strangematter

[charlemagne]

quick strange iso since i just woke up
this is less of a "case" and more of just me analyzing the posts so i might change my mind on voting there by the end of this (and i reserve the right to avoid confbias), consider this post being made chronologically beginning to end

Well well, I think I’ve played with quite a few players here.

VOTE: T3

Hey T3, hey Pavowski, hey CLSR.

pretty null opening, nothing too much to see here. is not placing down a vote in the very first post scum-indicative? feel like I've seen scum do it more often but i might be wrong

i can't believe its page 8 and we haven't elimmed any1 yet

I can't tell if you're being serious about this when we've got a lot of days left, and we win if we vote out scum.

Also hello I've been disconnected with this game and I'm going to try to catch up.

accusing pooky of being serious is like, high crimes and misdemeanors. pooky is never "serious".
(but yeah this post is sliiightly +town)

counterpoint: scum will usually attempt to seem townish in order to not be voted out
therefore, enchant is exhibiting scum behaviour by being townish
do the right thing people

Another thing I don't know if it is serious with all the dumb things going on at that time. It kind of reads like a joke but I'm not at all sure. I get why scum would try to seem townish especially in this type of game where eliminating only one of the scum wins the game, but I also don't get why anyone on Town would also want to be voted out and lose that day 1 condition.

is pure obliviousness scummy?
.....is it? like genuine question because if it is then strange is lockscum but if it's more indicative of being town that might be strong points in their favor

Going to put my 10 cents into this but I really don't think its a good idea to put people at L-1 (Isn't it called E-1 though?), especially since pressure should never be based off only votes, rather if you have a question to ask, you should ask it. Although, I don't think I can elaborate any more than that without snapping a rule.

pressure should be based on votes though. like votes are literally our main tool to affect the game (at least, in this phase).

Going to put my 10 cents into this but I really don't think its a good idea to put people at L-1 (Isn't it called E-1 though?),

especially since pressure should never be based off only votes, rather if you have a question to ask, you should ask it.

does this mean that you aren't actually suspecting T3 right now? who are your current suspects?

Well first that was an RVS vote and I never actually went off it. Secondly, I don't feel like I have any good suspects. I'm at the point of this game where I have no clue what's serious or not, and whether I should or shouldn't be posting about something or making questions for it. Seriously, I thought the CLSR wagon was a little odd then I looked at the posts and asked myself, is this a joke? I think I'm going a little crazy asking myself this question too much.

However, I don't like the post that said its fine to put people at L-1/L-2, which to me seems a little scum motivated.

this is where strange's posts start to look "slippery." the "first, that was an rvs vote, second, i don't have any idea what's going on and can't tell memes from the truth"
like sure it was fine at the beginning because they weren't caught up but at this point this goes beyond sheer obliviousness to straight up just actively fluffing; there is approximately 0 game advancing content in the iso up to and including here, and iirc there isn't any after. this isn't like... incredibly obviously scummy either, but i do feel like it's the kind of thing that you don't expect to see in town, whose main goal on d1 is to sort the game as clearly as possible.

Alright let me catch up

well i can tell you i chose a person to vote based on their posting

There's one point of charlemagne's #100 I particularly agree with, that we shouldn't be afraid of L-2/1.

I want to see reactions from people under pressure, and if scum do bumrush a wagon like that near the end, that seems like some prime explode bait to me. I think if it really is just a meme wagon with no substance or scrutiny, sure, avoid that. But the memery has slowed down and there's a lot of actual scumhunting going on, so I'm all for the wagoning.

Can you explain why we shouldn't be afraid of L-2/L-1?

did you
read the post?

Alright let me catch up

well i can tell you i chose a person to vote based on their posting

There's one point of charlemagne's #100 I particularly agree with, that we shouldn't be afraid of L-2/1.

I want to see reactions from people under pressure, and

if scum do bumrush a wagon like that near the end, that seems like some prime explode bait to me.

I think if it really is just a meme wagon with no substance or scrutiny, sure, avoid that. But the memery has slowed down and there's a lot of actual scumhunting going on, so I'm all for the wagoning.

Can you explain why we shouldn't be afraid of L-2/L-1?

Not to butt in on a conversation that doesn't involve me, but I think his post there kinda answers it.

Town can't lose in the first phase here, but scum can, and anybody jumping on an e-1 vote to hammer somebody -- especially at this point -- is gonna get some sideways glances in future rounds

Of course we can't lose today, but considering several times in other games we ended up being fine with making mistakes when the decision we make mattered, much like right now does. Yes we can make mistakes but I don't feel like we should still minimize them as much as possible.

these are words
they don't say anything though
we shouldn't minimize our mistakes? like... what? of course we should minimize the mistakes we make because we have a chance to win the game on day 1. yes we are FINE with making mistakes but it's still strongly preferable to not make that mistake and simply get scum d1? no?

[charlemagne]

i think strange has a significantly +rand chance of being scum here because not a single one of their posts provide game advancing content. they have justified their complete and total lack of reads by saying "idk what is going on." 237 is increasing my confidence that they aren't trying to closely read the game or even the posts that they're responding to, and they're doing kind of handwavey setup spec to seem like they actually have points of contention when they really don't have arguments at all.
the only reason they aren't like.. lockscum to me is that i don't have enough mafia experience (and may never have enough) to say conclusively that a lack of game advancing content is unidirectionally scummy; in fact, i suspect that that's untrue and it can potentially come from town. but i think that just the sheer amount of fluff in their posts—especially the longer ones like 236 and 270—points them towards +scum because it doesn't mesh with what a townie's motivations are; i'm relatively comfortable eliminating them today.

[charlemagne]

@IV:

I would rather we got over the "we hope to get Scum on D1" plan and started planning for the explosion phase. Here's what I think:

I would assign YOU (because you ARE my only confident TR) to list 3 ordered pairs, as in:

A to explode on B
C to explode on D
E to explode on F

I would also recommend that you take into account that Clemency, A50 & Pooky have volunteered to be the 3 suicide bombers, so your task would be to assign each a target and order the pairs.

Should one of the suicide bombers refuse to fulfil their duty the "target" should then nuke them (ex: A refuses to explode on B, B should explode on A). You should also probably assign a vice-leader in case Scum went out of their way and tried to nuke you before the 3 explosions were done with. That vice-leader does NOT have the right to edit your original pairs, but can decide what's next. (Of course if the Scum who exploded on you is on your original 6 that means assigning the "now free suicidal bomber" a new target)

Think about it and let me know what you think

iv isn't a universal strong townread. they might be the closest thing to it but i don't think that iv has massively -rand chances of being scum, and the consequences of them potentially being scum are literally just straight up game over for town (unless multiple of pooky/a50/clemency are scum, which i don't believe is likely)
i'd actually prefer the baseline strategy of "chaotic suicide bombers" to this (i don't think iv's reads are good enough to offset the chance of them potentially being scum)
that being said, i do like an element of a50's strategy which is the 3 ordered pairs aspect. i think everyone in the town should list their three biggest scumreads on d1, from which we create a map of the most scumread players at the end of d1 and have "whoever gets to the trigger first" out of the three suicide bombers go first.

[charlemagne]

@charlemagne, 2 questions

1) Not sure I'm grokking what the -rand and +rand syntax means that you keep using, can you clarify?

2) Your case on Strange feels very similar to my case on Pav. ISO full of either null, fluff, or scumlean posts. Do you get the same impression from my analysis on 13067125?

---

As for this D2 strategy talk, I don't know. A50's proposal that we should pick 3 ordered pairs isn't a terrible one, unless the person picking them is scum. I mean hell, if we accidentally give scum that power, I could see them totally bussing one of their teammates since it'll no longer be insta-lose and that would give them massive town cred. This isn't me saying I necessarily think IV is scum, to be clear.

charlemagne's idea of building a map of the most scumread players does mitigate that risk, though D1 scumreads are... iffy at best I'd say, without any flips to build associations. It could make sense to rebuild that map on D2, though then the strategy is tainted somewhat. What I like about the original proposal is that it sort of "locks" us in without it immediately killing us if we're wrong. Commitment hurts scum imo. Bleeding the map over into D2 reads makes that less pure.

1) +rand = more likely than random, -rand = more likely than random. i try to always keep that in mind because having a 50/50 that someone is scum is a Really Strong Scumread on d1, for example.
2) Yeah, I think that i can draw similarities. I think pav has a signal-to-noise ratio that's somewhat higher than strange's, although i agree with your overall reasoning there.

[charlemagne]

i don't think iv's reads are good enough to offset the chance of them potentially being scum

how do u figure about the quality of their reads

oh, it wasn't really a diss about the quality of their reads, i think their reads are probably better than average. i'd say the same for any player that doesn't have either RC reads or Creature levels of conftown.
for 3 reads from iv to be better than the "chaos strategy," iv's reads would have to be better enough than the aggregate reads of {pooky, a50, clem} to offset the chance of them being scum, which i think is unlikely. for 3 reads from iv to be better than democratization, iv's reads would have to be better enough than the aggregate reads of the entire town to offset the chance of iv being scum, which i think has probability ~0.

[charlemagne]

VC 1.07

Pavowski (1)-

numberQ

schadd_ (0)-

T3 (1)-

StrangeMatter

innocentvillager (0)-

charlemagne (0)-

cowsloveSushirolls (5)-

charlemagne, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pavowski, T3, Clemency

(E-2)

PookyTheMagicalBear (0)-

Enchant (0)-

numberQ (3)-

innocentvillager, schadd_, Almost50

StrangeMatter (1)-

cowsloveSushirolls

Almost50 (0)-

Clemency (0)-

Not Voting (1)-

Enchant

With

12

alive, it takes

7

to instantly eliminate.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-10-30 21:00:00)

- Oct 30th 21:00 GMT

@mod

i voted for strange in 247

[charlemagne]

i am very conflicted on strange recently i must say
i'm going to go back to VOTE: cows because they're still a relatively strong scumread without a lot of improvement recently. as for future days, i'm reevaluating here; i feel pretty strongly that we cannot make everyone commit to a strategy that's significantly better than chaos and i can't say i want to deny pooky the pleasure anyways.

[charlemagne]

do we wanna just end cows here like is everyone good with this

[charlemagne]

for the record i unironically agree with pooky: the fact that cows is not dead yet is moderate-strength evidence that they're scum

i'm not feeling so hot on the cows wagon anymore ngl
something about the attitude around it irks me
we managed to "survive" the meme phase of the game and we're in real mafia now and i feel it's in scum's best interest to try and end d1 fast and spin more chaos

hmm idk how to feel about this post. idk if the "real mafia" this is just a facade and this entire game is just a meme

[charlemagne]

i mean I specifically tried to stop any flashwagon shenanigans this game after seeing how poorly it went last two games so that could be why we didn’t just meme kill cows

The word “random” is very misleading as well because it implies that every person had a uniformly random chance of getting flashwagoned and run up, the truth is that scum were very early on the flashwagon to encourage it in both games - in my game specifically the whole scumteam was in the first 4 votes on Enchant like half a page in

words don't have power in any game as much as votes do
and i feel pretty strongly that the votes in this game point towards the scumteam *not* being on the cows wagon. whether that's intentional or cows is just scum, i can't say i'm sure.

[charlemagne]

what the fuck is going on
my gut wants to assign a high probability to the chance that one of {pooky, clem} is scum and out of those two i think it's more likely to be pooky but i'm not sure i can trust that gut read

[charlemagne]

deepest apologies school has been a pain lately and in complete honesty i forgot about ms

what the fuck is going on
my gut wants to assign a high probability to the chance that one of {pooky, clem} is scum and out of those two i think it's more likely to be pooky but i'm not sure i can trust that gut read

why are you still voting cows if thats true

because i didn't think i could trust the read
but honestly? now i can. VOTE: pooky.

i cant believe y'all are seeing scum literally go "no no i wanna do this thing that's extremely detrimental to town for memes" and you're all just cool with that

townposting

i cant believe y'all are seeing scum literally go "no no i wanna do this thing that's extremely detrimental to town for memes" and you're all just cool with that

yeah
hell he's going to do in d2 as mafia
or are you saying that because he's deliberately giving himself a free d1 pass thatll be accepted from the majority of the players here
which if so is def plausible but walk me through why that possibility outweighs the other ones

when i began trying to lay out the things i wanted to have happen day two it was when i was still trying to figure out how to play around the setup and i assumed day would end soon since it happened to in the last two games of this
now that things are more unsure and unclear scum wants two things
-to end day one with a town kill
-to make day two as unorganised as possible
the best move for me would have been to not say anything about day two actions at all, but i didn't realize that until i'd already gone into that
from there, the best possible move is to have as concise a plan as possible, which was that

I

would be the bomb and

I

would commit because

I

was the dumbass that spoke up first and too early
which exactly why scum would want to obfuscate a clear course of action as much as possible
A50 is saying he wants to explode too because A50 is just a not_mafia who talks more but beyond that "memes lol" is the perfect cover for scum to do whatever the hell they want this game

i think that clem is town this game and that means i think pooky is scum because i am more confident in my gutread of SvT
playing frustrated town is i think significantly harder than most people think and i feel that this would be more obvious

im unsure about the assertations of being a stronger player lategame when you vowed to explode early and are now self-voting now
but can i glean any AI information about that? probably not. you town bro?

Let me go from last to start:

YES, I am TOWN here.

Now ask anyone who has played 5+ games with me and they will tell you that I am indeed a better player towards the end of the game. Info + mechanics help me solve much much more than gut and feel.

This game is NOT A CONVENTIONAL GAME. There are NO MECHANICS TO BE REVEALED. There will be no "interactions", no VCA.. etc. It's a meme. literally a guessing game. I don't believe I will have better reads if I last longer, because the one who will explode is most likely a TOWN PLAYER, so theor choice doesn't give me any additional info (except for theirs and their target's flip). Like, let's say I could explode now and I choose to target X (feel free to replace X with the player of your choice). I flip green and X flips (again, consider both cases). Now what does that tell you about Y & Z?

fairly confident in a50 town

[charlemagne]

more confident about the pooky scumread

i'm not sure. it's largely a gut-based read which is why i didn't vote on it originally, but i don't think there's much i can say about why pooky is scum that hasn't already been said. i think that pooky's meming is more pervasive and less content-producing than i would expect to see from them in even this kind of game, and i'm surprised that has not changed even after clem started going at them for it.

[charlemagne]

holy shit what the actual fuck

[charlemagne]

how is cows not dead yet

[charlemagne]

alright i read through this game

[charlemagne]

hm i have a 50% chance of hitting correctly if i assplode

mafia's not going to explode so if town explodes on me it's game over

[charlemagne]

sometimes scum might just be scum

explode: cows

[charlemagne]

hey t3, were you town

[charlemagne]

Did you legit think cows was scum there?

i was more confident in cows being scum than t3 being scum, and than i was in the town out of them scumreading me more than the other, so i thought it was better to just assplode cows

sorry, guys