Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[Aristeia]

third

[Aristeia]

I'm townbinning everyone with a number above 100

we are masons as far as I am concerned.

if this turns out to be tragically wrong later it's not my fault

[Aristeia]

Even 80085?

yes

[Aristeia]

I have a cool thought experiment I want to try.

Let's all write down which three numbers we would submit if we were running a scum team.

I will explain after everyone writes down their numbers how this will help us.

I will go first.

1, 3, 13

[Aristeia]

1, 4, 4

might be a scum claim answer

[Aristeia]

80085

If I turn my phone upside down it turns into something naughty

you have such a dirty mind

[Aristeia]

I am curious why Mala and Aristeia both have large powers of 2 (really it's quite impressive that 9/14 players submitted some power of 2 but almost certainly not meaningful)

I will give a free townread to anyone who can figure out why I picked my number ^_^

[Aristeia]

this chart is stolen shamelessly from Andante in the last PYP:

[Aristeia]

weird how many people won't do a simple thought experiment in good faith

[Aristeia]

I'll either do something cool with the information or I won't.

Unless you think I'm going to somehow use this information to reverse engineer your gmail password and hack your back account I'm not sure what's the issue here.

[Aristeia]

like maybe you don't understand what I would do with the information.

That's fine

the scum likely don't understand either.

just do the exercise in good faith.

maybe i'll do something cool with it and maybe I won't. You won't know if you don't try!

[Aristeia]

It looks like busy work. I hate set up spec at the best of times, it literally gives me anxiety.

But, 1, 7,8.

ty

[Aristeia]

I just realized my own guess doesnt work because I just wrote down some numbers I'd pick instead of picking which ones are actually valid in the game :>

I would pick 2 - 8 - 14

[Aristeia]

I just realized my own guess doesnt work because I just wrote down some numbers I'd pick instead of picking which ones are actually valid in the game :>

I would pick 2 - 8 - 14

What’s the difference?

2-8-14 are numbers that were picked in this game, my previous numbers were not.

[Aristeia]

I'm townbinning everyone with a number above 100

we are masons as far as I am concerned.

if this turns out to be tragically wrong later it's not my fault

I was looking at earlier drafts from the wiki page to try and win this draft (2 gets picked surprisingly rarely) and I found that people who pick high numbers are scum surprisingly often, like about 50% of the time iirc. In recent games, I think skitter and saskeismyyaoikismesis were the only ones to pick >20 numbers, and both flipped scum. The fact that so many people did it in this game (usually there's only 1 or 2) makes me suspicious

VOTE: Aristeia

Well I am using the chart that Andante posted in the previous PYP game.

It shows that out of 39 scum selections in 13 games - only one time has scum ever picked a number that is above 100 - I do not think the scum team would give up so much picking power to the townside and send more than 1 person to 100+ in number.

As we happen to have 4 players picking numbers above 100, I believe it is likely we have at most 1 scum and possibly none at all and it's a fairly fun way to narrow POE early.

[Aristeia]

I guess if you analyze the data another way, there have only been two large numbers [above 100] picked in 13 games and once it was mafia and once it was town so in a way you could say it's roughly 50/50 from that POV.

However strategically speaking I don't think it makes a lot of sense to have multiple mafia players pick large numbers. I guess it could be wifomy in a way.

[Aristeia]

I just realized my own guess doesnt work because I just wrote down some numbers I'd pick instead of picking which ones are actually valid in the game :>

I would pick 2 - 8 - 14

What’s the difference?

2-8-14 are numbers that were picked in this game, my previous numbers were not.

Why change to numbers that were picked? I don’t think anyone else submitted like that and you’re the one running the exercise. You’re the one making the rules!

I think there's more information for analysis later by picking numbers that were picked

[Aristeia]

it'll be fun to see postgame who got closest to the actual mafia numbers

[Aristeia]

and you think it's plausible that I am scum, I got my team to pick all high numbers, and then I decided in my first couple of posts to pretend we are all town for having high numbers?

[Aristeia]

aight ari, time's up. tell us what cool shit you're gonna do with the information we gave you.

not everyone has even responded or even put down 3 numbers

i see no point in explaining my thought process if people are unwilling to do a fairly simple task

[Aristeia]

i think it is fairly silly to believe scum decided to coordinate picking big numbers

[Aristeia]

like its

1. counter to their win condition by making their picks likely suboptimal in pick priority

2. counter to their win condition by making their picks stand out and look weird

3. they cant all deepwolf

the fact that people think this is a reasonable strategy for a scum team to do and rely on the town colliding for pick priority is kind of silly and nonsensical to me.

[Aristeia]

aight ari, time's up. tell us what cool shit you're gonna do with the information we gave you.

not everyone has even responded or even put down 3 numbers

i see no point in explaining my thought process if people are unwilling to do a fairly simple task

I won’t because it still doesn’t make sense to me and I’d just be throwing out numbers at random.

The presence of more information is positive because either

1) i can use the information to help solve

or

2) i cant use the information to help solve


there is really no loss here.

I doubt I will endgame here so you will eventually see my flip and understand that my thoughts are coming from a town mindset

it is likely that atp you will see the validity of my process - and if you think it is useless, you are free to ignore it

but saying "oh i dont get it therefore i wont do it" is just helping scum obfuscate.

[Aristeia]

idk if it is; i do want to hear ap's input if possible before deadline since he's a lot better at this than me

i think it has the advantage of completely fucking with associatives (seriously, what scumteam does that???) and people like ruru and maybe sando will spend an insane amount of time going through older games and comparing the draft spread to what happens here and looking for patterns in what numbers scum picked, cept this completely goes outside all patterns and will just give a bunch of false positives that won't actually lead back to us.

like people will spend a lot of time discussing this but it won't actually lead anywhere and they might actually partner-clear us on draft-nomics

And as I mentioned the number of high picks is very unusual in this game

That's not to say it's somehow certain this happened, but I definitely think it's a reasonable starting point for today

no scum picked a number higher than 100 for open 732

[Aristeia]

i am asking each person to tell me if they are running a scum team, which 3 numbers they would pick for their team and to pick from the numbers chosen.

[Aristeia]

Does it really make a difference if it's 42 or 128? The point is that they picked numbers high enough that they can reasonably expect to 1) be behind other players who weren't duplicated, and 2) be ahead of all the duplicates.

@Harley, viewtopic.php?f=52&t=76766 for the game thread, viewtopic.php?f=90&t=76763 for the scum PT which is probably more useful in this instance

I think it's fairly clear there is a difference between picking 18/20 and picking something 200+

[Aristeia]

Not really? Read the scum PT I linked, they were explicitly trying to be the highest numbers and succeeded.

ok and did they then knowing that they were the three biggest numbers decide to jump into the thread and say "hey we should be townread because we are the three biggest numbers?"

[Aristeia]

picking 18-20-42

is very different from picking

512 - 80085 - 9999999999999999999999

I'll let you figure out why.

[Aristeia]

so you're voting me for picking a high number even though you picked a higher number?

[Aristeia]

that's an interesting thought process

[Aristeia]

so you're voting me for picking a high number even though you picked a higher number?

was i unclear or did you just try to misrep me right in front of my face? i hope it's not the latter. the disrespect.

your post speaks for itself sir.

[Aristeia]

what do you mean?

[Aristeia]

I don't understand what you mean by "only four people"

would a different number of people make my theory more or less valid?

[Aristeia]

what do you mean?

The whole picking higher numbers is somehow town indicative and it’s a good idea to auto PoE in the lower numbers. That is what you’ve been saying, correct?

yes

[Aristeia]

I don't understand what you mean by "only four people"

would a different number of people make my theory more or less valid?

Sure, because 7/11 picked lower numbers, so I don’t see your theory as helpful or why you’re defending it so strongly?

9/13

why is it not helpful to rule out 4 players if they are all actually town?

[Aristeia]

I don't understand what you mean by "only four people"

would a different number of people make my theory more or less valid?

Sure, because 7/11 picked lower numbers, so I don’t see your theory as helpful or why you’re defending it so strongly?

9/13

why is it not helpful to rule out 4 players if they are all actually town?

Because it’s a bad metric as Ausuka has already pointed out.

Make reads based off of posting not numbers.

if the four people are town, then it is useful - this is just objectively a fact.

I don't think I've ever expressed the opinion that I am not going to make reads off of posting or that posting is relatively immaterial compared to numerical analysis.

[Aristeia]

i think it is fairly silly to believe scum decided to coordinate picking big numbers

I think it’s a scientifically viable theory

The theory that Aus seems to be espousing is that 3/4 scum picked large numbers and I as scum decided to voluntarily propose townbinning my scum team + me on the basis of "large numbers town".

I think it's fairly wild and incredibly unlikely for me as scum to do and I have difficulty understanding why someone would believe this is an actual thing that is likely to happen.

[Aristeia]

I really do think there is a difference between picking 18 and picking 512 but I don't think it makes sense for me to argue with people about it because my sense of numbers and strategy might be inherently different from yours.

[Aristeia]

aight ari, time's up. tell us what cool shit you're gonna do with the information we gave you.

not everyone has even responded or even put down 3 numbers

i see no point in explaining my thought process if people are unwilling to do a fairly simple task

What was your reasoning behind this exercise?

Why won’t you explain this?

If I propose that everyone does ______ because I think it will help me catch scum

and then most people don't do _____ because they'd rather give a joke answer, they'd rather say they can't come up with the answer, they'd say if they were scum they wouldn't do it, they think its busywork, insert random excuse why picking 3 numbers is unreasonable for me to ask them to do.

then it would be somewhat pointless for me to explain how I get from ______ to "catching scum" because it would be explaining my thought process for scum to play around,

[Aristeia]

Like I'm not asking for people to mass claim or give me details that I could possibly use as scum to win the game.

I'm asking people for three numbers they would pick if they were running a scum team.

It's not like I can possibly use the information to do bad things.

If people won't treat me in basic good faith then I don't really feel any obligation to explain myself.

[Aristeia]

If I were to call you scum it wouldn’t be for that
But like, it’s been proven that scum have gambitted on high numbers before
So what make you think a high number is more likely town?

because scum want to pick before town does; order matters very much to them.

If a scum player picks a PR, that's a PR that a town player can't get.

I find the probability of a "collision" to be very low when you get out to the double digits.

Imo if you pick something between 20 - 40 you are very very unlikely to be collided with.

When you pick a number that is higher than 100, you're basically ceding priority in the pick order to every two digit number without really gaining much in terms of "less collision probability" so I find these picks to be more likely to come from town than scum.

I think it's more likely that a town player would pick a very large out there number rather than a scum player because there are more players in the scum PT and one of them is likely to say "well why dont you pick like 25 instead of 212?"

There's also the sense that you're working as a team to come up with picks that fit your strategy rather than a town player just picking whatever number they happen to like.

[Aristeia]

If people won't treat me in basic good faith then I don't really feel any obligation to explain myself.

The answer I gave was the best-faith answer I could give. If I gave numbers, they'd be in bad faith.

I suspect others who gave non-answers feel similarly.

ok I think that's fine if everybody doesn't want to do the exercise I can just forget about it - but I don't owe anyone a long written out explanation if they won't write down three numbers, that's just not how the world works.

[Aristeia]

I am assuming the scum made their decisions collectively as a group rather than just randomly picked whatever they each individually wanted.

I don't actually know if this is the case for most PYPs - I just kind of think it makes sense to play that way as mafia.

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: For Dats <3

[Aristeia]

If people won't treat me in basic good faith then I don't really feel any obligation to explain myself.

The answer I gave was the best-faith answer I could give. If I gave numbers, they'd be in bad faith.

I suspect others who gave non-answers feel similarly.

ok I think that's fine if everybody doesn't want to do the exercise I can just forget about it - but I don't owe anyone a long written out explanation if they won't write down three numbers, that's just not how the world works.

Does your exercise seriously require a full response from everyone?

I could use partial response but if most people treat it as a joke or refuse to participate it won't be very useful.

[Aristeia]

What even is the purpose of that, Ari? Would that help you read us? If not, shouldn't you be appealing to those who wouldn't answer or at least try and convince them?

In my experience it is a waste of effort

[Aristeia]

That's an incredibly uncharitable way of putting it.


This is a game and I don't have an interest in trying to force people into doing something they are not interested in doing.

[Aristeia]

You're being ridiculous

[Aristeia]

it's just kind of gross the way you are characterizing my behavior.

like incredibly disgusting to me

[Aristeia]

I have not done anything to you

[Aristeia]

I made a simple request because I thought it would be fun icebreaker and might possibly be useful later

I asked people for three numbers, not a big ask imo

most people refuse to do it

I am fine with that because I don't enjoy forcing people to do things and it's just a game

and your response is to just assume I was never interested in the first place and asking in bad faith.

it's just not a line of thinking that I think is appropriate or remotely decent.

I find it quite icky

I am not calling you scum for it because I don't think being obnoxious is outside of your town range.

[Aristeia]

ok I am done talking with you about this too.

[Aristeia]

sure

[Aristeia]

can you actually explain why town!me would force every person in this town to do a number exercise that they are clearly not interested in?

[Aristeia]

Hey remember when you did this to me in a previous game, and you were being very extra in trying to make me seem like im being obtuse. You ended up town there. I wonder if we just cant get along.

its weird to me that you bring up a game where u deathtunneled me incorrectly, try to suggest maybe you just cant get along with me and then follow up with "she must be manipulative scum".

these thoughts are incoherent to me.

[Aristeia]

like if you are town and you think im lockscum, why are you uncomfortable with this exchange? doesnt it just make you look incredibly unaligned with me if you flip me and im scum here?

[Aristeia]

I don't get that impression

[Aristeia]

I flirt with Datisi regardless of alignment tho >.>

[Aristeia]

i have to say this out loud but i want to ask other people what they feel about ari's position because right now all im seeing is manipulative scum

I can see Ari doing the rqs thing as either alignment I think? I wouldn't do the RQS thing in the first place but like, if I did I probably wouldn't pursue it if I felt like people weren't playing along. I don't think it's gross for you to question it though

I suck at posting

it is not RQS.

RQS refers to asking questions to everyone that are "random" in nature and appear symmetric to the answers.

I am asking about the numbers the scum team selected for this game.

The scum know what numbers they selected for this game.[tmi]

The town do not know what numbers the scum selected for this game.

The information generated is not random.

The implication he is making is that I was never interested in the information in the first place because I gave up pursuing it after being told "no" by enough people. It's gross because it presumes that town!me is an asshole who wants to force everyone to do exactly what she says and won't shut up until she gets her way.

My question is when exactly has he actually seen me do that as town early in the game to make such a characterization of me.

[Aristeia]

what am I supposed to pursue

most people said no

[Aristeia]

he is saying that town!me would force everyone to do this number thing come hell or high water like some kind of asshole hence because I didn't act like an asshole I must be a scumbag who didn't really care about the numbers in the first place.

[Aristeia]

I am asking him which game is he referring to where town!me forced everyone to do something against their will. because if he doesn't actually have an example he's just making shit up to shade me in the most uncharitable manner possible.

[Aristeia]

where did you try to get people to answer me in good faith?

[Aristeia]

I am asking him which game is he referring to where town!me forced everyone to do something against their will.

This question doesn't make sense to me, and I imagine it's because you already twisted this into something that I don't recognize. But please rephrase it.

you are saying that because I gave up on the number thing, I am scum who didn't really actually care about the number thing. y/n?

[Aristeia]

So youre not at all still interested in finding out the result of what you want to do?

this question implies that because I gave up on trying to get everyone to give me 3 numbers it means I wasn't really interested in what I wanted to do.

[Aristeia]

you are saying that because I gave up on the number thing, I am scum who didn't really actually care about the number thing. y/n?

maybe, but i was trying to understand you so i asked. you immediately called me disgusting or something.

I understand subtext and what you're trying to imply about me.

[Aristeia]

I asked everyone for 3 numbers

most people ignored me, joke-answered, or didn't really take it seriously.

I tried to persuade people by saying it doesn't hurt them to give me 3 numbers because it's not like I can do anything bad with them even if I were scum here.

most people still ignored me

That's fine with me, I wasn't sure it was going to get anywhere or if the results would be really that useful, I've never done this type of numerical analysis in PYP before - I have thoughts about what scum would do in this situation given their TMI.

You then decided because I gave up, that implies I am mafia who "didn't really care about the numbers" in the first place.

It's a gross thing to say because the implication is that

town!me would care and triple down and be an asshole and force every person in this game to submit three numbers; hence me giving up on it implies I am mafia.

I am asking you to back up your implication by giving me an example where Town!me forced everyone to do exactly what she wanted right away when they didn't want to.

[Aristeia]

whatever i can see the angle that it's a difference in playstyle

?

you're analyzing my play to determine whether I am mafia.

you're not analyzing your own play to decide whether I am mafia.

if you want to say that me not being forceful = me being scum you should at least have examples of my townplay where I do force something like this thru or like some reason why town!me would force it through hence me not forcing it thru indicates it's scum!me?

[Aristeia]

okay ari i just think this is a game and if that's really a gameplay that can get you your win condition, then it's not being an asshole it's gameplay.

I've usually regretted tryharding to win games it never feels very good after the game is over.

[Aristeia]

it didn't feel like you were asking because you are curious it felt like you were asking just to shade me

[Aristeia]

So youre not at all still interested in finding out the result of what you want to do?

is there anyone here who actually thinks this question is trying to sort me in good faith?

[Aristeia]

that's an interesting mindset. that's why i think you're defensive.

^
scum HEM attacking Town!Prism in

viewtopic.php?t=89172&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

[Aristeia]

there's very little actual thought in his tunnel on me actually

VOTE: HEM

[Aristeia]

i'm reviewing his ISO from panic room

[Aristeia]

it's just kind of gross the way you are characterizing my behavior.

like incredibly disgusting to me

this is a remark about the way you are playing and your accusation about my play so far this game.

I am not "name calling you"

I do not personally believe you as a person is "gross" or "disgusting" - I do not know you as a person.

I find your implication that "Town!Ari would be an asshole and force everyone to do her number experiment" to be gross and disgusting because it implies you think I'm some kind of asshole who is willing to hijack a game just to do something she wants - I am not really into that for a number of reasons.

If people don't want to do the thought experiment I am fine moving on and doing something else.

[Aristeia]

it's trivial for scum!him to replicate this to pocket you

[Aristeia]

if you look at the iso it's mostly just blind tunneling and his progression on me doesn't even make any sense

[Aristeia]

he enjoys using aggression to shitpush and get townread because people tend to townread aggression

however his aggression on me lacks a thought process and is hideously bad faith in multiple areas.

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: Explanation of why HEM is scum and his progression on me makes very little sense and is full of lies and gross inaccuracies/lies

initial vote - no explanation on why the vibes are bad or how they are different from other people.



note the timestamps on this - I really doubt town!hem really thinks I can take everyone's answers and give him numerical analysis because

(a) most people didn't respond or joke responded so I don't even have a data set to analyze

(b) it's like 5 hours between these posts.

(c) I don't think it's reasonable for him to expect me to give him an actual answer here so expecting one is kind of bad faith setting me up to fail and so he can continue his push.



this post is about the large number discussion I am having with Ausuka - he thinks it's not worth discussing because it's not great for reads and he wants to move on which is a kind of signaling. I believe scum!him thinks the context of the discussion is pointless - but this shouldn't actually be how town!him thinks because if he thinks I'm scum - then it should be good that Ausuka/Harley are pushing me on this. Instead he doesn't want them to interrogate me on my thoughts for ??? reasons.



here he's digging back in - now it's good for the number discussion because he sees it as something to use to push me. He tries to consolidate based on a narrative that scum!me was doing "false setup spec" on page 1? There's no discussion of actual motivation - he just finds this a covenient thing to attack with because Ausuka has been pushing me for it - you can tell he doesn't actually believe it because he doesn't really explain how it makes sense for scum!me to pursue this.

Notice the slip here - the second sentence implies that it's "bad town strategy to choose high numbers". As in he's thought about whether it'd be good for town to pick high numbers, he's concluded it's bad and thus I am "scummy" for doing this "bad thing" - except he's picked a even larger number than me - which is why he tries to pick up the slip with the idea that 80085 is personally sentimental and he's fine doing things that are not good strategy.

This feels like something self-conscious scum would do rather than town. because if town concluded that picking bad numbers is actually bad strategy - they would just

not do it

.

Here he seems to think it is bad for town to pick large number so i'm bad for picking a large number but he also has to bend himself into a pretzel to attack me for picking the large number while excusing himself for picking an even larger number.




he voted me for vibes. him forgetting what he voted me for originally and instead hijacking ausuka's argument feels like he never really remembered what he voted for me for in the first place.

implying it was bullshit vote he decided to double down on because it happened to have momentum



this is just pure revisionist nonsense.

he did not vote me for my comment about large numbers - he voted me for vibes. he decided to change what he was pushing me for after he saw Ausuka pushing me for "large numbers" he never even mentioned the large numbers thing until AFTER Ausuka started pushing me for it. He had previously stated in 128 that he didn't think the number discussion about large numbers was even useful so he clearly did not CARE about large numbers. He's now changing his story as if he was pushing me for the large number theory to begin with.



this is the first "read" of someone other than me he's made.

it feels conveniently like scum trying to recruit an ally.

I would imagine he would've gotten reads of at least Ausuka for how she's pushing me about Large Numbers but instead he's basically said nothing about anyone's alignment other than tunneling me up to this point.

It does not feel like something organic




This is the part that really triggered me.

He is making the implication that I have not done enough to persuade people because I do not actually care about getting this information.

It's grossly bad faith because I have tried multiple times to convince people to give me three numbers - 45 57 58 76 80 115 121

I have tried to be nice about this. I do care.

For him to misrep me as "not caring" is a ridiculously bad faith interpretation of my efforts this game. It annoys me because either he hasn't read my posting or he doesn't care about my posting and he's just making up whatever fake narrative he thinks will make me look bad instead of actually examining if I actually care about this number guessing thought experiment.

I thought it would be fun to have everyone guess 3 numbers and see if we could get some info out of it because

(1) scum know what they picked(tmi) and they want to make their guesses look like town guesses
(2) town do not know what scum picked
(3) the information could be useful down the line, it might not be useful down the line, I don't really know but if there's some anomaly that pops up it could be cool to think about.

If nobody wants to do it I'm not going to hijack the thread and just rant about it for like 10 days? I can scumhunt fine without it so I was moving on but he comes back and claims its proof that I'm scum because ????




This is him trying to back away and pretending he was actually sorting in good faith/being nice.

Which is kind of ridiculous because as you can see above, roughly 90% of his posts are just shitpushing me with made up narratives and lies.

him claiming that I am "not motivated to solve the game" when I have double the number of posts of anyone else and I'm literally answering any questions sent to me and talking/engaging with multiple slots is ludicrious and a total lie.

also his line about wanting to "help me squeeze out answers" is complete bullshit - I challenge anyone to pick out a single post in his iso prior to this where he is "trying to help me"



this remark makes very little sense because he's trying to placate me and convince me not to come after him because he's refering to a game where we were T/T and we fought for a while - except

(1) he supposedly thinks im lockscum so why is he even worried about this?

(2) if he thinks i'm town where is the reconsideration/evaluation of my alignment? literally every post up to here is just shitpushing me for made up narratives in his head.



this feels like he's trying to de-escalate to prevent this 1v1 from going full nuclear -

but it doesn't actually make sense for town!him to de-escalate if he thinks I'm mafia

Like I'm right here for him to sort but instead of sorting he's trying to placate me and see if he can get me to back off



more fake narrative nonsense. like I'm literally right there for him to sort but instead of asking me about my thoughts or literally anything game relevant he decides he wants to just try different colors of shade and see what works.



literally nothing in HEM's iso makes me think he is trying to sort me in good faith. literally most of his posts are shit tunneling me and I don't even think any of his reasoning is actually believable - his progression on me is literally a lie.



blaming me for this 1v1 is kind of rich because his entire iso is a shit tunnel of me whereas I'm actually engaging with multiple people so it's just a gross misrep of how we got here.

TLDR:

HEM is a player who enjoys using aggression as scum to get townread and push mis-elims. I do not believe his push of me is in good faith, his progression is mostly made up and there are several glaring inconsistencies/outright lies. I have not felt like he is trying to sort me in good faith at any point during my conversation with him.

[Aristeia]

@HEM

if you want to tell me you do this kind of shit tunneling with outright lies as town then pls give me an example of a game where you do this as town and I will do my best to read it and compare it with your actions here.

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: For Dats<3

[Aristeia]

you keep coming back to the idea that i think you're scum because you chose a high number. i think it's a deliberate misrepresentation at this point, i have cleared this up before. i thought it was off that you would declare yourself town and the other high number people as town, and forming a block because of that when your numbers are too similar with Malakittens. and that was enough for me to vote you early game. i actually wanted you to succeed in your experiment, and i was getting impatient that it's been like around 8 pages and you haven't even explained to us what's up even though you have like half of the game's answer. that's why i also got irritated that you dropped it.

this is also super dishonest. where did she think the vibes came from?

you never explained the "vibes" comment initially so I have no idea what "vibes" you are talking about.

when ausuka began pushing me for large numbers/discussing the large numbers with me, you said you were uninterested.[which does not make sense if you were pushing me for the large number comment I made initially or if the "vibes" comment was about large numbers]

you only later revised your position to say that you were pushing me for the large number comment all along - which makes sense as you see there is traction.

This is clearly you being inconsistent and making things up in your trajectory as it happens rather than an organic thought process.

[Aristeia]

i keep reading the case and it actively pisses me off how much namecalling there is so im gonna step away from the game for now.

I will make an effort to avoid "name-calling" if you show me which parts of my case are "name-calling" or attacking you personally - I am trying to explain how I see your play from my point of view.

I do not know you as a person, I have never met you and it is unlikely to ever happen. My comments are made wholly within the context of the game and not meant as a personal affront to you.

[Aristeia]

im not even that aggressive. and im not thoughtless.

I reread your entire iso in this game three times before I made my comments and my case.

the vast majority of your content posts are directly targeting me in the most uncharitable manner possible.

I have shown multiple inconsistencies and outright falsehoods.

Instead of addressing each of them you've decided to make blanket statements and feign anger.

This is unlikely to lead to an outcome that helps me understand your POV if you are town here.

My offer stands to you for you to produce an example of a game where you begin with this type of death tunnel on another player as town rather than taking a holistic approach.

[Aristeia]

where did i say you were lockscum?

you are quibbling over technicalities at this point.

if I am not lockscum to you why are you focusing the entirety of your effort this game to making up lies about me?

[Aristeia]

you said you were uninterested

quote it

im excited to move on from this numbers discussion. i can't get a decent reads out of it

here ^

[Aristeia]

how did i deathtunnel you?

if you look at your iso, it is quite clear that almost every post you make with content is directly targetting me;

there is little sorting/interaction with others.

that is basically the definition of a death tunnel.

[Aristeia]

thats different from uninterested. i wasnt getting decent reads out of the numbers discussion. i wanted to talk about the wagon on you, which could give us better reads. my mission was successful when you engaged me and here we are.

this is not even a believable lie.

[Aristeia]

you took a big sum of the early pages and all the spotlight was going for you. of course im going to mention you. and my read was not progressing as it was just an early vibe so i wanted for us to move on.

so is it opportunism or genuine suspicion on your part for you to target me like this?

you didn't just mention me - almost every post you make is targeting me in some way.

focussing all your attention on me and then claiming its because the spotlight is on me[which is a large part due to you] is kind of a terrible excuse.

[Aristeia]

frame me however you like. you have questions, you got answers.

I actually have not received answers from you regarding whether you have a habit of death-tunneling one person to the exclusion of sorting anyone else so early in the day as town.

[Aristeia]

I do not have the answer.

I have not read every game you have played.

I assume it would be memorable to you if you did this as town to someone so I am asking for an example.

[Aristeia]

i keep reading the case and it actively pisses me off how much namecalling there is so im gonna step away from the game for now.

I will make an effort to avoid "name-calling" if you show me which parts of my case are "name-calling" or attacking you personally - I am trying to explain how I see your play from my point of view.

I do not know you as a person, I have never met you and it is unlikely to ever happen. My comments are made wholly within the context of the game and not meant as a personal affront to you.

I want to re-iterate this point.

I do not want for you to have an unpleasant time regardless of your alignment.

If you tell me what I've posted crosses into "name-calling" where I am making a personal remark against you the person rather than you as a player in a game centered around lying; I am more than happy to adjust my play.

This is a game centered around lying and deception. My remarks are intended solely within the realm of this game, I have no reason to believe you are anything but a nice and upstanding person in real life and I don't think any of my comments should be interpreted as a personal attack upon you as a person.

[Aristeia]

1. you keep claiming it's not a death tunnel but your engagement is focused almost entirely around pushing me.

(1a) you also don't seem to be sorting me or asking me any questions so I think it's reasonable for me to think you believe you know what my alignment is if you are town as you are not actively sorting(I honestly don't think you ever were)

(1b) logically then you should think I am mafia as you continue to make comments regarding me that are negative and you continue to vote me.

(1c) which is weird because you continue to insist that you don't think I'm lock-scum.

2. There is plenty going on in this game other than my experiment.

(2a) If this is a genuine complaint about my experiment taking up too much game space and me posting too much about it, then I'm not sure why you made the comment that I didn't actually want answers.

[Aristeia]

considering someone could be town is not the same thing as sorting people.

[Aristeia]

this is what happened during the number experiment:

[Aristeia]

that's all you had to do. explain your experiment. but you made a big fuss about it.

I have no explained what I wanted to do because I have no data for what I wanted to do.

I simply copied the chart of responses that I have - showing that it was mostly troll/joke/nonresponse.

The fact that you decided to jump on me for "not doing anything with the data" is gross considering I didn't have any data to use for numerical analysis in the first place.

[Aristeia]

you're not being trolled. you were prompted to explain yourself before we continued. you refused. then you dropped it. then i asked you why you dropped it because i thought it was just easier to explain it.

I explained I dropped it because I didn't have data for it [because most people didn't respond seriously]

the only difference between my explanation then and my explanation now is that I copy pasted a chart with everyone's response showing that they basically didn't give me data whereas previously I simply stated this as something that happened.


I am not "dodging" giving an explanation. I literally do not have data to do analysis with.

You should know this if you actually read the thread but you're too busy making up bad faith narratives to attack me with.

[Aristeia]

i keep reading the case and it actively pisses me off how much namecalling there is so im gonna step away from the game for now.

I will make an effort to avoid "name-calling" if you show me which parts of my case are "name-calling" or attacking you personally - I am trying to explain how I see your play from my point of view.

I do not know you as a person, I have never met you and it is unlikely to ever happen. My comments are made wholly within the context of the game and not meant as a personal affront to you.

I want to re-iterate this point.

I do not want for you to have an unpleasant time regardless of your alignment.

If you tell me what I've posted crosses into "name-calling" where I am making a personal remark against you the person rather than you as a player in a game centered around lying; I am more than happy to adjust my play.

This is a game centered around lying and deception. My remarks are intended solely within the realm of this game, I have no reason to believe you are anything but a nice and upstanding person in real life and I don't think any of my comments should be interpreted as a personal attack upon you as a person.

This is my third time asking you HEM;

Which comments of mine do you believe fall outside the bounds of this game and "pissed you off".

I will make an honest effort to avoid this in the future if your complaints are reasonable - I do understand I can sometimes cross over boundaries.

[Aristeia]

no that comment says we're taking up too much threadspace and we should stop attacking each other to let everyone else post rather than make this game unreadable.

it does not mention TvT.

I'm fine with logging off and taking sunday off and letting everyone else play, I think implo's suggestion has a lot of merit.

[Aristeia]

since last night you've been calling me gross. you've been calling me disgusting. you've been calling me a liar. you've been misrepping me. it's hard not to feel emotional about that.

These are comments about your play in a game that is centered around lying and deception.

I am not making these comments about you as a person.

I also don't understand why you are emotional about these comments if you believe I am a scum who is lying.

[Aristeia]

how is our 1v1 isn't moving the game forward if i'm scum?

there are twelve other slots to sort and more pages of us 1v1ing is not good for thread health or sorting other people.

[Aristeia]

I also don't understand why you are emotional about these comments if you believe I am a scum who is lying.

have someone tell you that you're lying when you've been honest, and then come back to me.

this game is literally about lying.

it is a requirement to lie if you are mafia.

it is not a stain on your reputation or your character it is literally what we signed up to play.

[Aristeia]

Ari I'm curious about this post. I mean, I think it's always best for town to be as high up the draft as possible, to deny scum PRs and increase the likelihood of town PRs, hence why I chose 2. You seem to agree with me here, saying the reason you think it's town indicative is because scum would discuss the issue and then be less likely to do it

But you seem like a smart person who's thought about draft mechanics - if you believe that it's suboptimal to pick a high number, why do it, and why then call HEM out for the same thing (believing it to be suboptimal but choosing a high number anyway)? Am I missing something here?

I called out HEM because of the way he said it was "scummy" to pick a high number and then the excuse he gave himself - it feels like he internalized that what he did was scummy, decided to attack me for it, and then said it was actually sentimental for him.

I'm not particularly good at nightplay, I am fairly good at dayplay and solving for alignment through what is going on in the thread. I don't want a high draft number because I think it would give the scum a 2-for-1 by shooting a strong solver and a power role at the same time. My preferred role is VT because I can be as aggressive as I want without really worrying about becoming too "obvtown" and getting shot at night and costing the town a PR.

[Aristeia]

like the way I think about role distribution in a micro - I want TPRs to go towards people who are LHF or inactive or not very good because scum become obligated to shoot them at night because if they leave PRs alive it creates mech issues for them down the line.

a scum team in a normal typically looks at who is mis-limmable, who is LHF, who is an easy push etc; giving these players strong TPRs such as FN, Vig, Mason, Doctor etc takes them off the table as potential mis-elims and squeezes the POE for the scum team.

In this game it's atypical in that ascetic cop, doctor, tracker, jker etc can be scum roles rather than town roles but the nature of the draft makes it so that remaining alive unreasonably long is an actually useful indicator for sorting alignment on slots that are not very good at alignment telling or can be potential mis-elims.

[Aristeia]

for example let's say Enchant.

I'm not very good at reading Enchant - he rarely does much in a game and typically not very AI. He's kind of like a mini-NM in a way.

He has slot 1 pick, usually the strongest TPR.

If he survives very long, it feels obvious to me that he is just mafia, if he gets shot by the mafia at night because they think he is ascetic cop, that resolves the slot for me. I would rather have these picks go to someone I am bad at sorting because it resolves issues for me down the line.

[Aristeia]

I can see town looking at Ari dropping her activity having pushed it so hard and then think, 'ok what's up with that, if you can give it up so easily it was probably busywork' if that makes sense

I don't think I gave up particularly easily.

I made multiple posts trying to convince everyone to give me three numbers for example:

45 57 58 76 80 115 121


I gave up because it was fairly clear to me that people were not interested in the thought experiment and I have no desire to twist people's arms into doing something they are not interested in doing.

[Aristeia]

What even is the purpose of that, Ari? Would that help you read us? If not, shouldn't you be appealing to those who wouldn't answer or at least try and convince them?

So youre not at all still interested in finding out the result of what you want to do?

this is what he said to me.

the implication is that I didn't try to appeal to/convince the people who chose not to answer.

You can see from the posts cited:

45 57 58 76 80 115 121

that this is either a misrep or an outright lie.

I am aware that townies can make up false narratives because they are lazy and do not read what is actually happening; hence why I offered him the option of citing a completed game where he engaged in this kind of behavior as a town player so I know it is inside his townrange.

[Aristeia]

like sure maybe he made an honest mistake and he didn't read any of my posts trying to get people to give me numbers so he decided to just say i didn't try to convince anyone.

maybe that's true

but his response to me feels like playing gotcha, saying I'm misrepping him, and doubling down on me being scum rather than simply admitting he got this part wrong which feels like a scum reaction rather than a town figuring out what my alignment is reaction.

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: For Dats<3

[Aristeia]

would you like a pagetop m'luv?

[Aristeia]

don't you dare

[Aristeia]

it is for dats

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: For Dats<3

[Aristeia]

I've seen klick not do much and flake out as town

this is funny because I was just reading 1045

[Aristeia]

Titus isn't townreading Dwlee on Dwlee's play

she's townreading Dwlee on the way HEM is behaving

[Aristeia]

It means you should vote Klick

If you vote hem and they flip and I'm wrong, you get my vote tmo Gamma.

Why should I vote HEM?

He's shopping for a counter when he's the top.

you literally saw this alrdy?

[Aristeia]

like your response to her was "ari is already my counter, titus"


as in you already have a cw on me - except my votes went from 3 -> 2 and you don't seem to be getting anyone to bite on voting me so instead of trying to convince people to vote me cuz I'm mafia - you're asking other people to convince you to vote for Klick[shopping for an alternative]

The reason this is scummy is because it's not clear whether you've actually decided on an alignment for me, you're just browsing alternatives without resolving the actual issue.

Like gamma is trying to convince you to vote klick because gamma thinks klick is mafia cuz meta - you are not trying to convince Gamma that I'm mafia.

[Aristeia]

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=89094

Ari, iso me and GuiltyLion.

I skimmed this and I don't think it's similar behavior.

I have a bit of a headache today so I'll take some time to actually reread it in depth tomm.

[Aristeia]

V/LA from GMT+8 Wednesday to Friday. Surgery.

GL!

[Aristeia]

what do you make of implo saying dwlee is townreadable

that's not what implosion is saying.

implosion is voting for dwlee because implosion thinks dwlee is mafia.

implosion is saying he doesn't mind if someone[titus] makes him a case for dwlee being town.

he is also saying he believes dwlee has enough content that Titus can make a read of dwlee one way or the other.

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: For Dats<3

[Aristeia]

hey ari are you scum?

I am town

[Aristeia]

I can always be wrong

[Aristeia]

dwlee is a townlean for me currently

I think they feel comfortable with being vibey, their post about enchant i feel is a lot more likely to come from town!them than scum!them.

I think I'd feel more certain about their alignment after more time.

[Aristeia]

I don't think there's a lot of AI stuff in her iso either way; it is still early and I am interested in seeing where she pushes if at all.

[Aristeia]

I basically never roll scum you don't even have to read me

[Aristeia]

I townread Ausuka I think she has a lot of conviction in her posting - I also don't think her interactions with HEM make sense on an S/S level.

[Aristeia]

@Klick you will be missed ! hope to see you again sometime.

[Aristeia]

what details do you want?

[Aristeia]

my case on HEM is here:

267

some people voted for HEM [Roden, Dwlee, STD]

I think STD/Roden moved off at some point

Titus began pushing HEM here: 408

She doubled down here: 493

STD/Roden came back to the wagon and Implosion joined after this point to put wagon at e-2.

[Aristeia]

Oh and about Enchant, I think scum are very likely to pick 1 based on previous games, so I don't see why that doesn't also hold here to some extent.

This is true but if Enchant is town; scum can't let Enchant live for very long because there's a good chance Enchant is the strongest TPR so they have to shoot him.

so if it's like day 3/4 and Enchant is still alive, the odds he is scum go up a lot and we can lim him with much more certainty than if we lim him now.

[Aristeia]

also if you look at this chart:




in 13 games, there has always been at least one town player to pick [1]

there are only 6 games where a mafia player picked [1]

what has never happened so far is a mafia player picking [1] uncontested.

[Aristeia]

@the PR things,

Yea I know we don't have to resolve him rn I just think he is also playing kinda scummy

yea I do agree he is kind of scummy

but he's also kind of lazy and he knows he can get away with it so ~shrug~ what can you do about it?

[Aristeia]

Oh and about Enchant, I think scum are very likely to pick 1 based on previous games, so I don't see why that doesn't also hold here to some extent.

This is true but if Enchant is town; scum can't let Enchant live for very long because there's a good chance Enchant is the strongest TPR so they have to shoot him.

so if it's like day 3/4 and Enchant is still alive, the odds he is scum go up a lot and we can lim him with much more certainty than if we lim him now.

+1

I wouldn’t lim anyone solely based off of a number pick.

I would lim people off a number pick that survives for too long tho. Like if an Ascetic cop is still alive near Elo that's autoyeet territory.

[Aristeia]

Ari why the focus on mechanics here?

You seemed annoyed when I bring up probability one prior games.

it's not the same thing.

[Aristeia]

also if you look at this chart:




in 13 games, there has always been at least one town player to pick [1]

there are only 6 games where a mafia player picked [1]

what has never happened so far is a mafia player picking [1] uncontested.

When did you make this chart?

I did not make this chart, Andante made the chart in a completed PYP game, I am using her link.

[Aristeia]

how is the wagon stalled?

[Aristeia]

this game is 3 days old and HEM just got put at E-2 a few hours ago

[Aristeia]

original andante chart:

viewtopic.php?p=13188597#p13188597

[Aristeia]

vote count 1.04

with 14 votes in play, it takes 8 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-06-14 01:30:00).

yeet

humaneatingmonkey [4]:

Aristeia, Roden, Dwlee99, Save The Dragons

Aristeia [3]:

humaneatingmonkey, Bellaphant, Ausuka

Enchant [1]:

implosion

Klick [1]:

Gamma Emerald

not voting [5]:

Harley Quinn, Malakittens, Enchant, Klick, Titus

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

flavour

24 hours is not a very long time and Sunday/Monday is usually busy for most people.

Beginning of Sunday to now nearly 24 hours later there’s limited to no movement
Just seems to be on counter/vanity wagons yet no one has picked up steam

[Aristeia]

messed that up:

24 hours is not a very long time and Sunday/Monday is usually busy for most people.

[Aristeia]

This means we’re either looking at HEM scum or a similar dilemma I had in an HEM scum game in that no one wants to smash on the tail end all at once or a scum capture so I am asking questions to figure out which.

why don't you read my case on him and titus's case on him and his behavior and make a decision based on that then?

[Aristeia]

Getting bad vibes from mathblade

Slight heartburn from ari

Good vibes from dwlee and HQ

Interesting. Why on the others?

For the me I am going to assume that’s SOP considering how many times I have smoked you as scum before.

SOP?

Standard Operating Procedure

is mathblade TMIing STD!town in this post?

[Aristeia]

you accused std of scumreading you because you smoked him too many times as scum

the subtext is that he's town.

[Aristeia]

@Math, how and where is STD faking reads? Can you link/quote where you think he’s doing that? I still don’t see how anything Gamma posted pur me at the slightest risk of being outed.

The prior post is an answer to the faking reads

It was the general vibe. Gamma’s pinged me as more of bridging that line I’d rather not cross because it requires you to reference your main.

Gamma knows her main

[Aristeia]

Gamma is asking her questions because she is playing differently from how she normally plays on her other accounts.

He is not asking for her main, he's asking if she's playing differently for a reason

[Aristeia]

like its weird af u r saying std is sr u cuz u smoked him too many times as scum and you are also scumreading him for sring you? like lol what even is that ?

[Aristeia]

Gamma is asking her questions because she is playing differently from how she normally plays on her other accounts.

He is not asking for her main, he's asking if she's playing differently for a reason

I that’s not quite it
I don’t know how or why Roden says there’s a difference here, once HQ started providing content it felt like business as usual
I was just trying to clarify Roden’s meaning. But I don’t have full confidence that there isn’t some minute aspect that differs that I’ve never noticed.

I think she is a lot less active than her townself but the game has barely started so it will be fairly obvious later down the line.

[Aristeia]

1) The more time passes, the more I don't really buy that Enchant should be 100% no-holds-barred off the table today. There's no universe in which scum are gonna NK them over e.g. HQ and Gamma, who are 2nd and 3rd in the draft and widely townread. They are Simply Not Playing The Game. They're going to continue not playing the game on future days. And yes, they're a guaranteed PR... which includes as scum. Enchant could be a scum 1-shot vig or 2-shot PGO, among other dangerous roles. Shouldn't whether or not they're a good elimination depend at least a little bit on whether or not they're scummy? And right now they're playing exactly the same game (read: non-game) they played in chromavalon.

the way I think about Enchant is as follows[do not respond to this in any way that outs your role pls]

Even if Enchant is scum, they should be Ascetic Cop because denying town the most powerful TPR is much stronger than gaining an extra kill via say 1 shot vig imo.

Let's say in both worlds Enchant is an Ascetic Cop because it is the strongest TPR [this is an assumption]

Scum are obligated to kill Enchant rather than let Enchant get a bunch of results. If scum leave him alive for 2 nights and we paranoia lim him on day 3, he will out 2 results which is basically like giving us 2 masons or better if he finds scum.

as for PGO being a threat - um I don't really think it makes any sense for any town role to target enchant ever - if they r scum, they will be outted by the virtue of not dying. If they are town, um whats the point of targetting them?

I do agree he is quite scummy by not playing but I've seen him not play as town b4 so it's kind of like ~shrug~. If he's scum he will get outted anyway by virtue of living too long.

[Aristeia]

-snip-

I think Enchant is the kind of player who could easily yolo pick a killing role or a blocking role or something. I'm not going to push it hard right now, mostly because yes, it is true that if we paranoia-lim Enchant d3 and they are an ascetic cop we get 2 results. But I am going to be *really mad* if they don't get limmed d3-4 if they keep playing this way.I guess frankly I'm just very annoyed at what they're doing, because I had to play a game where they were doing this and I had to hold my tongue because it was chromavalon and I was their merlin, and this time I don't have to hold my tongue.

I think picking ascetic cop is much stronger than picking a jailkeeper/roleblocker type role because ascetic cop can't be blocked in the first place and by picking it you are essentially permanently blocking the cop.

I think picking ascetic cop is much stronger than picking 1 shot vig because shooting an ascetic cop is literally the best thing you can do as a 1 shot vig and counterpicking it is essentially the same thing except you're guranteed to stop it from existing.

I don't think a scum first pick can materially affect game state in the first 2 nights if we policy lim at 3 if they don't town it up or blurt out some results or w/e.

I think scum are very much pressured to shoot into the high picks and clear our POE for us so voting out town!enchant or pressuring him to claim is essentially doing the scum's job for them if enchant is town here.

[Aristeia]

I think picking ascetic cop is much stronger than picking a jailkeeper/roleblocker type role because ascetic cop can't be blocked in the first place and by picking it you are essentially permanently blocking the cop.

Absolutely.

Mafia players don't always play optimally.

Again, this isn't really

important

, I'm just annoyed that we're basically Contractually Obligated to let Enchant not-play-the-game for 2-3 days.

personally I like that he picked a number that allows the nightkills to auto-sort him for us because he doesn't do much that's AI.

I do think he would be willing to yolo pick one just to counterdraft a cop role as mafia because his scum game is not great and he kind of just afks but the certainty level goes way up if we get to like day 3.

[Aristeia]

good luck with your surgery and don't worry about the game! it will still be here when you come back

[Aristeia]

Let’s assume that Enchant as scum picks ascetic cop. It’s more likely that Enchant would just be flat out bulletproof in that case. It would remove the cop from play if I understand the setup. He would then openly claim ascetic cop. Another alternative is because scum picked informed that they know a role pair not in play (assuming there is a pair not in play as I have reason to believe this is the case) so this suggestion from Ari seems more useless noise than helpful.

I do not care if he picks bulletproof or ascetic cop

I will policy him if he is alive on day 3

[Aristeia]

like there's literally no reason for mafia to let an town ascetic cop live to day 3 and give 2 results - that's like gifting the town a mason pair at minimum.

so if he's alive at d3, I'd be much more sure of him flipping scum than limming him here.

it also means that if he is town and we are mislimming - we are getting like a mason pair out of it thru 2 innos instead of say elimming him today for nothing.

[Aristeia]

I have no idea what you're talking about I think my logic is incredibly clear.

[Aristeia]

if anyone other than mathblade thinks I am unclear with why I think enchant should be treated in the manner I have stated I will explain again.

[Aristeia]

my logic applies only for the person who is pick number one

[Aristeia]

mathblade have we ever played a game where you were right about mech and I was wrong?

it feels like the only time I ever have mech disagreements with you are when you're scum and trying to make up random nonsense.

Is there a single time we've been t/t and disagreed on mech and you've actually been right?

[Aristeia]

the reason my argument applies to Enchant is because Pick #1 should be an Ascetic Cop

[Aristeia]

if Enchant is town and Enchant picks Ascetic Cop, then Mafia have to shoot him before he gets results and creates masons for us.

If Enchant is town and Enchant does not pick Ascetic Cop, then Mafia don't know this so they still shoot him trying to kill the Ascetic Cop.

The only time Enchant survives is if he's like scum.

People want to kill Enchant today - but this doesn't make sense because if Enchant is town, the mafia should solve his slot for us via NK.

So it is always preferable in my opinion to elim Enchant on Day 3 if he is still alive and scummy rather than pop him on Day 1.

[Aristeia]

mathblade have we ever played a game where you were right about mech and I was wrong?

it feels like the only time I ever have mech disagreements with you are when you're scum and trying to make up random nonsense.

Is there a single time we've been t/t and disagreed on mech and you've actually been right?

Yes

Last game

I said scum were bussing at 80% odds and you kept saying no and Andres was bussing

this is not mech

[Aristeia]

mathblade have we ever played a game where you were right about mech and I was wrong?

it feels like the only time I ever have mech disagreements with you are when you're scum and trying to make up random nonsense.

Is there a single time we've been t/t and disagreed on mech and you've actually been right?

Yes

Last game

I said scum were bussing at 80% odds and you kept saying no and Andres was bussing

this is not mech

It is to me.

Starting from concrete facts/probabilities and working down is mech

mech involves roles and roleclaims.

deciding whether a player bussed or did not bus is VCA, wagonomics and dayplay analysis

this is a basic definition.

[Aristeia]

convince one person your mech interpretation is right and my mech interpretation is wrong and I will continue this conversation with you. Otherwise I am just going to assume you are wrong and wasting my time.

[Aristeia]

what are you even arguing with me for

do you want to kill enchant today?

[Aristeia]

and no Implosion didn't say my mech logic is wrong.

If he thinks I'm wrong and you're right he can say it himself in this thread and explain why.

[Aristeia]

Who do you scumread besides HEM?

you

[Aristeia]

Enchant << no day reads, if scum it’s with Ari. This postulating doesn’t feel right

like this feels like you want to chain enchant!scum flip to somehow misflipping me because I have the right mech approach to solving his slot which is kind of ???

[Aristeia]

like i dunno why else you would spend this much time arguing with me over mech because you don't sound like you particularly want to flip enchant today

[Aristeia]

literally the only times you spend lots of thread time fighting with me over mech in a way that makes no sense to me is when you're scum and making shit up.

for example:

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=89351

and

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=87284

[Aristeia]

1) If you’re right and scum agrees and Enchant is the town cop bad for us

if enchant is town cop he is getting shot today period

[Aristeia]

you think scum me is trying to get my scum team to shoot enchant!town cop by

talking about it in the thread

and therefore I'm bad?

like what even is your reasoning here?

[Aristeia]

1) If you’re right and scum agrees and Enchant is the town cop bad for us

if enchant is town cop he is getting shot today period

And I disagree

You said this is fruitless unless I convinced someone else

Why are you poking this repeatedly?

you said I'm full of shit and I'm easily triggered by people who know less than me talking shit to me online

[Aristeia]

Funneling the scum kill to Enchant when he could be a top tier PR is bad

If I am scum

You think I'm funneling the scum to kill Enchant

by talking about it in the thread

that's your thought process????

[Aristeia]

I think this is all wholly irrelevant because frankly treating Enchant like a player who is going to play with a focus on optimizing the probability that they will win... is inane. They autoquickhammer anyone at E-1. That's not the kind of player who's going to auto-pick ascetic cop as scum to deny it. It's also not the kind of player who's going to always pick ascetic cop as town because they think it's the Correct Play. I agree in broad strokes with what Aristeia is saying but they do have an assumption (which to her credit, she is explicit about):

yes but if Enchant is

town

then scum can't KNOW if he's an ascetic cop or not, he's probly ascetic cop more often than not and therefore they would shoot there as a first resort to stop him from getting results.

If an ascetic cop flips somewhere else, then obviously these rules no longer apply to him.

[Aristeia]

you think scum me is trying to get my scum team to shoot enchant!town cop by

talking about it in the thread

and therefore I'm bad?

like what even is your reasoning here?

I am saying in the case you’re scum Enchant is town then it’s spam to avoid reads as you’ve made up your mind you’re shooting there.
In the case you’re scum and Enchant is scum you’re setting up a gambit.
In the case you’re town and Enchant is scum then you accomplish nothing with this mechanics shenanigans as Enchant doesn’t have a single vote on them
In the case you’re town and Enchant is town then this is just begging scum to shoot Enchant

Nothing good comes from this

if i'm scum and enchant is town i've decided to defend enchant from people who want to lim him by spamming the thread

ok cool theory mathblade

[Aristeia]

like what even is your goal here?

do you think I'm scum?

do you think I'm bad!town?

are you trying to win an argument that has no purpose ?

[Aristeia]

Mathblade what even is the point of this discussion for you?

I do not want to eliminate Enchant today

I have stated my reasoning for not wanting to eliminate Enchant today.

You also do not want to eliminate Enchant today.

So what are you even arguing with me for?

What are you trying to convince me of???

[Aristeia]

In short you’re the only player making sense and the only one besides me considering HEM town

Towns tend to tunnel on D1 and you waffling and such gives me pause.

It’s like you aren’t really deciding on much.

wtf does enchant have to do with HEM?

if you want to convince me HEM is town, you should read the case I made and Titus made for HEM!scum and explain why we are wrong

or make your own towncase for town HEM.

Saying you think he's town for reasons you can't explain and gut is literally not useful in any way.

[Aristeia]

like what even is your goal here?

do you think I'm scum?

do you think I'm bad!town?

are you trying to win an argument that has no purpose ?

I think it’s A or B and I was trying to ascertain which.

I realized that was fruitless so I tried to protect possible TPRs

I don’t ever “win” discussions with you ever

They always end without you even trying to understand when I do one sentence this premise is wrong posts.

So I just tried to stop the argument and you decide to poke it again

You think you can protect Enchant!TPR from the Mafia Nightkill by arguing with me in the thread

r u serious?

[Aristeia]

Scum are manipulatable just as much as town can be.

I may not know who they are but if you are I can find a way to manipulate you

And if you aren’t then I can use this conversation to manipulate scum.

ok so your official explanation for arguing mech with me is to manipulate the scum team into not shooting enchant ok cool

good luck with that.

[Aristeia]

I will still policy Enchant at day three if he's still alive and doesn't town it up

good luck trying to convince me that you've somehow jedi mindtricked the scum team into not shooting him or whatever.

[Aristeia]

right now my scum team guess is just enchant - hem - you

Ausuka, Gamma, Titus, STD are my strongest TRs

Dwlee, Bella are townleans.

Roden, Mala, Implo, Harley are null

[Aristeia]

And Ari isn’t that bad as town. You’re just not

you've never seen me have wrong reads as town?

[Aristeia]

except every time you wasted my time with a mech argument that's senseless you've been scum so why would I townread you for it this time?

[Aristeia]

I feel stronger about HEM flipping scum and if HEM flips town your scum equity goes down by a lot so it makes literally no sense for me to try to flip you today.

[Aristeia]

like your complaint with me seems to be that if Enchant is Ascetic Cop, that I am coaching the Scum Team to Shoot Enchant.

Except if I'm scum as you allege, I could simply shoot him by writing

shoot Enchant

in the scum PT.

So your argument with me literally makes no sense to me.

Maybe you really just enjoy arguing and that's something you like to do regardless of alignment.

It annoys me on a general level that instead of reading the cases me/titus built on HEM and either explaining why they are wrong or writing up your own towncase on HEM that we can read and think about.

You decided you can replace in here and go "HEM is town because Gut" and "reasons I can't explain" and fight me on random nonsense that I'm not even sure is related to the game atp.

[Aristeia]

I feel stronger about HEM flipping scum and if HEM flips town your scum equity goes down by a lot so it makes literally no sense for me to try to flip you today.

Cool.

I’d be very very surprised if HEM flips wolf here

Dude is extremely good at destroying his wagons

Eerily good.

Like I

really

doubt he’s scum.

This argument does nothing for me. He already tried ATEing his way out of it.

I have metric tons of meta on him if he tries any of his usual bullshit i will annihilate him.

[Aristeia]

have you even read my case on him?

[Aristeia]

I'm not saying I can't be wrong.

I think I'm right.

I have all these reasons why I think I'm right.

If you have a better lead somewhere else then make the case.

if you think my case is wrong because of _____ reason then state the reason.

but like you coming and going HEM is town because "gut" literally is meaningless to me.

[Aristeia]

have you even read my case on him?

Skimmed it

Was going to go in-depth on lunch break.

To be quite frank that long a case on D1 is suspicious.

if you think there are things in my case that are wrong you are welcome to refute them.

[Aristeia]

I have refuted the things you have said about me, about the mech, and about HEM's play.

I have read your posts and told you what I think.

You have not actually refuted a single part of my case against HEM.

You claiming that I'm not listening to you is just hypocrisy.

[Aristeia]

UNVOTE:

I'm going to take a break for a few days I don't want to flood the thread with too much stuff and math blade is making me excessively aggravated

[Aristeia]

I'm trying to be nicer in general and this is not helping >_>

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: Ari

mathblade have we ever played a game where you were right about mech and I was wrong?

it feels like the only time I ever have mech disagreements with you are when you're scum and trying to make up random nonsense.

Is there a single time we've been t/t and disagreed on mech and you've actually been right?

literally the only times you spend lots of thread time fighting with me over mech in a way that makes no sense to me is when you're scum and making shit up.

for example:

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=89351

and

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=87284

Spoiler: Math

right now my scum team guess is just enchant - hem - you

Ausuka, Gamma, Titus, STD are my strongest TRs

Dwlee, Bella are townleans.

Roden, Mala, Implo, Harley are null

Cool

Then you’re scum because imho 2/3rds of that are bad almost certainly

So I think I might be right for the wrong reason.

And Ari isn’t that bad as town. You’re just not

VOTE: Ari

I don’t think this ever picks up today and it’s more posterity but I feel confident enough here to vote.

except every time you wasted my time with a mech argument that's senseless you've been scum so why would I townread you for it this time?

Because we aren’t arguing over mech

We are arguing over scum theory and what players would and wouldn’t do

And it’s not been a waste of time

I forgot how much I hate playing with scum you because when I am not scum I have the charisma of nothing because I don’t know the lay of the land

But how about you prove it and vote me?

I flip town then you go brag about how “right” you are

Then you flip tomorrow.

Chicken?

Math's scum read on Ari feels really fake. She uses meta to scum read him first, and he retaliates by doing the same back. And he suddenly acts like he "knows" she's scum.

They're both using Burden of Proficiency for their meta reads, which typically I hate but I hate Math's more. Claiming "every time we disagree/you're wrong on mech it's because you're scum" and then providing examples at the very least has a basis in reality. But Math simply saying "you're never bad town so you have to be scum" is just, awful.

I am not using BoP. If I am sure enough that I'm willing to BoP my life on it, I will say so.

Me and mathblade have played a total of four games together. (2 TvT and 2 TvS)

in two of them he was scum who was making up mech nonsense - mini 2226 and micro 1053

in one of them he rep'd into a mason slot and claimed mason

in the other one of them he rep'd into an mech confirmed investigated innocent slot that was force replaced because previous player decided to try to use unfair means to townspew himself.

At no point have I ever had to actually read for Town!Mathblade, so his thing about me getting his alignment correct is just nonsensical.

[Aristeia]

This is the only account I consider to be mine; everything else done on other accounts are not really me.

Your whole "she must always read me 100% correctly every time" is just nonsensical. If you act like the way you acted while scum playing with me, I'm going to misread you. That's just how my mind works. I'm not a psychic.

[Aristeia]

To be clear I don't agree with the premise of "HEM-scum means there must be an active scum". I have no idea why that is necessarily true, or even why it'd be particularly likely. It sounds like you're just basing it on one anecdote?

I am basing it on knowing scum HEM.

Put scum HEM in the same instances (inactive scum)

You should get the same conclusion (wagons disappears)

This didn’t happen.

You have a recent scum game where I replaced in with HEM and what I did and can observe

Yes it’s one game but it’s like trying to fit a round peg in a square hole

It just doesn’t fit

so you're saying Scum!HEM can never be wagoned and elimmed day one because he's such a good scum player that it would just never happen hence if a wagon forms on him he must be town?

[Aristeia]

I think a lot about whether I am wrong actually.

[Aristeia]

I should stop talking to you for a bit before I get worked up again.

have fun Mathblade

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: for Dats<3

[Aristeia]

implo you're going to hate this but the impression I get from your conversation with mathblade is that he's town and you're mafia and you know hem is mafia and you can't believe how absurdly wrong mathblade is. hehe