Open 348 - JK9 Game over (Who won?)

[Pine]

Good gods, the activity level of this thread is appalling. I'll read through and give my impressions immediately...usually I have to request a few days to catch up, but with 72 posts it won't be a challenge.

[Pine]

Initial impressions:

Pads

: First off the early duck wagon. Scum probably would have either pressed the matter or more likely just let it rest, with a comment to the effect of desiring pressure. Seems to be exploring leads as they come about.

smallpeoples343

: General weak Townread. Uneasy about the quick Apple wagon.

apple_singer

: Perhaps Town. The careless votecounting in #24 suggests Town, but can be feigned. Quick-wagoned without justification.

[L]

: General Townread. Could have quickhammered duck and easily pretended "Oops!" but this is not outside the realm of WIFOM. Persues good leads, asks insightful questions, shows deductive reasoning with Mattman and kondi, though I disagree with the conclusions. Not a fan of the Apple vote, as I don't see sufficient reasons, especially when she already pointed out good reasons against kondi.

Mattman

: Called kondi out on scummy wagoning, could be bussing. Not enough content, too much fluff. That's consistent with what I've seen of him elsewhere, though. Update: Unlikely to be buddies with kondi given kondi's reaction.

duckhunter4242

: Town. That early wagon built up entirely too fast and with entirely too shoddy reasons.

kondi2424

: I dislike the very early "You're Town" @ Jon. Seems contrived. Additionally, the jump onto Apple's wagon also seems calculated, rapidly putting him to L-1 sans reasoning. Retaliated against mattman for presenting a valid point. Mattman and kondi unlikely to be buddies given reaction.

JonWJ007

: Second candidate for scum at this point, primarily because of putting duckhunter to L-2 on the first page of RVS. Careless at very best and unacceptably scummy at worst. Also some subtle rolefishing in #19, suggesting that one should claim at L-1 when he'd just put duck there.

[Pine]

Dammit, I always forget to actually vote when I do catchup posts.

Vote: kondi

[Pine]

^That's L-1.

[Pine]

Additionally, in reviewing my stream-of-consciousness list of reads, it occurs to me that if we assume my Townreads are accurate, then our two goons are within this set: {kondi, Jon, Mattman} in that order from more to less likely. Obviously, as some of my Townreads are not especially strong, that list is not ironclad and may be subject to alteration given changes in behavior.

[Pine]

[L], my confusion with the seemingly contradictory suspicion of kondi and vote on Apple is that the vote on Apple was out of a clear blue sky, with nothing leading up to it (and no real explanation for it when it did happen.) On the other hand, you seem to have a strong opinion on kondi.

I'm willing to let this apparent contradiction go because almost everything else that you've done indicates Town, and it's possible you were just shelving kondi in favor of pursuing someone who had at that time received little scrutiny. At this point, however, we're gearing up to lynch kondi, in line with your expressed suspicions. Are you willing to declare intent to hammer?

[Pine]

The misrepresentation was unintentional, and I retract it with apologies. It seems I did not read 63 closely enough. I think I'd already decided you were Town by that point, and was skimming reads I disagreed with.

[Pine]

Not to nitpick, but that NLing in a 3:1 MyLo isn't a free kill, as it increases the odds Town has of hitting scum with their last lynch.

[Pine]

[L], are you willing to hammer kondi?

[Pine]

Correct.

[Pine]

Indeed. Tempted to ask the JK to claim, as their target last night is either the killer or victim. 50/50 odds are good. Might be worthwhile to wait another day, though they might be killed tonight. 1/4 chance of JK dying versus 1/2 chance of them having blocked scum.

[Pine]

Vote: skenvoy

The scumminess of Jon precedes you. Vote on a Townread doesn't help.

[Pine]

Clearly, you aren't paying attention. Jon pushed an early wagon that almost built up to a lynch (no, 3 isn't a lot in most games, but in a 9-player, it's L-2 on Page 1). Jon continued to be scummy with his votes. Further, my Town reads help me use Process of Elimination to significantly reduce the potential scum. You and Mattman's replacement (whose name escapes me right now) are top on the list. Your defensiveness and misrepresentation of my reasons (you voting on a Town read is just ancillary) simply strengthens my opinion.

[Pine]

Sorry, but about the only thing you could do would be to convince me you're Town, and you're not really doing that. Instead, you're mostly just being whiny and defensive.

[Pine]

Clearly, you aren't paying attention. Jon pushed an early wagon that almost built up to a lynch (no, 3 isn't a lot in most games, but in a 9-player, it's L-2 on Page 1). Jon continued to be scummy with his votes. Further, my Town reads help me use Process of Elimination to significantly reduce the potential scum. You and Mattman's replacement (whose name escapes me right now) are top on the list.

Your defensiveness and misrepresentation of my reasons

(you voting on a Town read is just ancillary)

simply strengthens my opinion.

By the way, could you explain why exactly my voting on a town read strengthens the case on me as scum? I would've thought that scum would go mainly for easy lynches, not players others had town reads on.

Fixed that for you. The defensiveness and misrepresentation (which continues) is what strengthens my opinion.

I didn't vote right away for two reasons. First, I wanted to discuss whether power roles should act, as they could hand us a very good candidate as scum. Second, I wanted to give you a chance to change my mind. You haven't.

[Pine]

I have an idea!

I was toying with the idea of proposing a no-lynch, to give our two power roles another night to work, and making the no-kill favor us. But as I toyed with the pros and cons of that, I kept coming back to the concern that one of them might be killed. Which led me to the idea of breadcrumbing. The problem with breadcrumbing is that if it's too obvious, scum might notice and target that person. If it's too obscure, the Town may not be able to decipher it...or worse, incorrectly decipher it.

What I propose is that

everyone

, in your next post, state one other player's name in

bold

. If you are not the Jailkeeper, pick someone at random. If you are, use your actual target. With eight breadcrumbs (six when you discount their own and their buddy's) that all look alike, the scum won't be able to figure out the genuine. However, if the JK gets killed, we'll have their result plain as day.

We can then do the same with the Tracker.

[Pine]

Oh! This also forces scum to lock into a fakeclaim target, making it harder for them to support a later claim to draw out or discredit the actual PR.

[Pine]

Yeah, how about some opinions, Pom? PE: Gotcha, carry on.

And more fake/real jailkeep claims please.

I jailkept Jon.

[Pine]

Stop failing plox.

[Pine]

Mod: VC please

Should bold mod requests. They tend to skim the thread.

[Pine]

Whut? No we are most certainly not at MyLo.

6:2 now, 5:2 with a mislynch, 4:2 tomorrow if there's a night kill. You fail at math. (PE: You

both

fail at math.)

[Pine]

...

...

I'm well aware of that. But when determining whether or not you're in MyLo/LyLo, you compare the estimated/known number of Town to the number of scum. Either way,

you

did the math wrong.

8/2 today, 7/2 tonight, 6/2 tomorrow.

Tomorrow

is MyLo, and

only

if we mislynch

and

there's a dead Townie in the morning.

[Pine]

Regardless, no-lynching is not a good idea. Either way, scum have better odds tonight than our two PRs do. Let's lynch skenvoy, and if I'm right, we'll be five (or possibly six) Townies versus only one Mafia member tomorrow. If I'm wrong, we'll be in MyLo

tomorrow

and I'll support a no lynch to give the PRs an extra shot.

[Pine]

Not entirely sure where you get a desire to speedlynch out of my posts, I haven't suggested it in the slightest. I'm just certain who I want the eventual lynch to be.

[Pine]

Nah. What [L] has been doing is way too bold for scum. Bored witht he failing Skenvoy wagon though, I'll have to come back to it.

I have to keep reminding myself that everyone in this game other than Pomegranate and myself is inexperienced, which covers a multitude of sins. Speaking of Pomegranate...

Unvote
Vote: Pomegranate

Initially, I was just following up on my second-scummiest remaining read from Day One. Then I ISO'd Pom. Pom has done absolutely everything in her power to remain as non-committal as she can. Go ahead. Read her posts in isolation for yourself. I'll wait.

...Done? No? Go back and read Pom's posts in ISO. Seriously. Go to the bottom of the page, click the "Display posts by user" menu, and select Pomegranate. Then click Go.

Done? I'm going to assume you have. Pomegranate replaced Mattman, who was quite scummy in his own right for reasons already explained. Pomegranate's ISO revolves around three things: First, she spends a few posts answering the questions that kicked off the game, which are thoroughly irrelevant and fluffy. The next few posts are spent defending against Mattman's attackers, even without and concerted push against her. That tells me she's trying to get out of the shadow of Mattman, which was decidedly unfavorable. Third, her last couple of posts have latched onto a rising wagon without independent reasoning, which is always scummy.

In summary, Pom is flying below the radar, posting just enough fluff not to get called out for lurking, replaced a scummy player, and is shamelessly sheeping onto a wagon I feel is against Town.

[Pine]

Right then...wagon on Pom, go.

[Pine]

You haven't spent "considerable time" doing

anything

. You had ten posts as of my case, and the first several were all spent distancing yourself from your predecessor. I'm not sure I can be clearer than that without quoting it myself with notes in the margin.

[Pine]

Desperate? Desperate would be pushing the wagon I was already on, not starting a new one. I want you lumps to

participate

, not lurk your hearts out. And you

just said

my arguments

do

speak for themselves, so what's your deal, Apple?

[Pine]

I don't think any of those really deserve serious answers. I've already stated my case, and deadline approaches. This thread needs to get off its ass and do something.

[Pine]

Please count them. People who aggressively lurk and won't engage should be replaced and/or threatened with replacement.

[Pine]

Hello,

I've been glancing at this thread from time to time. I get the point on Pom, but I don't think it's that effective.

Here, have a waffle jacket:



Or would you like to hedge your bets a little more?



(Yes, the above is intended as a subtle indictment of your masculinity, or lack thereof. Less subtle now, I suppose. I am also aware that it is technically a topiary.)

[Pine]

@PINE: PLEASE RESPOND TO MY QUESTION. KTHX.

You haven't spent "considerable time" doing

anything

. You had ten posts as of my case, and the first several were all spent distancing yourself from your predecessor. I'm not sure I can be clearer than that without quoting it myself with notes in the margin.

You're implying that it's scummy for me not to want to be associated with Mattman-- why? I replaced him, but I'm not him, and I can't account for anything Mattman did. So why is it so scummy?

That was a serious question? Distancing from a scummy predecessor is tacitly recognizing your predecessor's scumminess and intentionally trying to get past it. I'm not sure how to respond further...I'd use "Why is the sky blue" for a similar question, but I can explain in detail the optical processes involved with that, so it's a bad example.

[Pine]

Not really. The best thing to do would have just to move on with the thread and start fresh, only responding to direct accusations regarding the predecessor. Pom focused on predecessor first, then lurked to avoid notice. That's scummy.

[Pine]

Thoughts on Pom?

[Pine]

I'm liking Meji Fan's case on smallpeople. I could settle for smallpeople as a compromise lynch.

[Pine]

Citing information from an ongoing game as [REDACTED] is a common thing on this site. It skirts the rules, but just barely.

[Pine]

You get scumpoints for the rolefishing, though.

[Pine]

I am quickly growing suspicious of IceGuy's insistence on a Jailkeeper claim. Most of us have already agreed to my just-in-case mass JK claim, so why would he bother going for an outright JK claim as Town?

On that note, I'm going to run through the thread and compile who has and hasn't responded to that.

[Pine]

I am quickly growing suspicious of IceGuy's insistence on a Jailkeeper claim. Most of us have already agreed to my just-in-case mass JK claim, so why would he bother going for an outright JK claim as Town?

Because your mass JK claim benefits scum much more than town (I believe this has been pointed out already).

Scum knew whom they sent to kill and whom they killed, so they can narrow down the field of possible JKs. Town can't tell them apart, so the watcher can't watch the JK, and the claim is only useful when the JK is dead.

Bullshit. If everyone claims something, then scum won't know who to shoot. It will end up as a null benefit for scum. Then, if the JK has more results tomorrow, he or she can full claim and we'll have two results out of him or her. Your method is ACTIVELY ANTI-TOWN, as it guarantees our weak investigator/protector/roleblocker gets killed tonight. The Tracker can't help prevent that, he or she is not a Watcher.

Unvote
Vote: IceGuy

Claimed Results:

Pomegranate - Claimed Pads

Smallpeople - Claimed Apple

Pine - Claimed Jon/Pom

Apple - Claimed duckhunter

Skenvoy - Claimed duckhunter

Pads, [L]/jerobbo, Duckhunter/Meji/IceGuy - No claim

[Pine]

Flashwagon on Ice, go. I've been letting that slot go for far too long based on being an early D1 wagon. It happens to scum sometimes too, and duckhunter's play was fairly scummy right along.

[Pine]

Bullshit. If everyone claims something, then scum won't know who to shoot. It will end up as a null benefit for scum.

NO. They know the kill last night was stopped by the JK. Therefore, the JK can only be a player who claims either shooting scum or victim as target. Scum knows who those two people are, we don't.

Then, if the JK has more results tomorrow, he or she can full claim and we'll have two results out of him or her.

Except scum has a good chance to nail the JK tonight, see above.

The Tracker can't help prevent that, he or she is not a Watcher.

My mistake - for some reason, I thought it was Watcher/JK, not Tracker/JK.

Shit, that's a good point. Paranoia's making me want to press harder on why your mind would have been thinking in that vein, but if you were scum you wouldn't have announced it with no pressure. Ice is Town, and jerobbo's vote above looks opportunistic.

Unvote

Need to do some rereading. At this point, I don't really have any Townreads of decent strength except my new one on Ice, and I'm second-guessing the piss out of myself. I'll post in the morning, it's almost half past 4 in the morning.

[Pine]

I'm a Vanilla Townie, since I've just replaced in I'm obviously not close to this game yet so if you feel lynching me will give you good info based on peoples relationships with [L] then I can understand, I'd even self-hammer if that's what people want - but I don't see what info a mis-lynch here gives you based on my reading of the thread.

I don't want to lynch you because it gives me information. I want to lynch you because you're scum.

Then you're going to feel silly when I flip Town and you have a mis-lynch and no info.

Okay, so I lied. I'm an insomniac, and I decided to start my reread right away. This jumped out at me within 30 seconds of ISOing the first person in my mind, jerobbo.

Read that last line. No, go ahead and read it. Now picture a situation where Town says that to someone he claims is

in his top three

his second-strongest scumread. Can't? Neither can I. This is clearly the informed mocking the uninformed. Think about it. From jerobbo's claimed point of view, Ice is scum. So why would Ice, from jerobbo's claimed PoV, be looking for information? He wouldn't. Icescum would

have

the information. This is a subtle scumslip, displaying Ice as Town and jerobbo as scum.

Vote: jerobbo

This is today's lynch. I will accept no other options, and I will rain blood and fire on this thread until it happens.

[Pine]

That's L-1.

I don't mind a self-hammer, because the JK should not be claiming.

[Pine]

lol, the post I quoted was near the bottom of page 10, and was only this past afternoon. You didn't post at all between that and your scummy vote on him, wherein you place him in your top three scumreads. Lie moar.

[Pine]

I wouldn't terribly mind being protected by the Jailkeeper. I'm the Tracker and the most obvious target now.

Of course, now that scum

know that

, they probably won't shoot me.

So protect someone else.

Of course, now that scum

know that

, they probably

will

shoot me.

So protect me.

Of course, now that scum

know that

, they probably won't shoot me.

So protect someone else.

Et cetera. Suck my WIFOM, scum.

I tracked smallpeoples last night, didn't go anywhere. With two scum, that doesn't mean jack.

[Pine]

Okay, so this is embarrass. I forgot to send in a tracking target.

Or maybe I was fakeclaiming to draw the kill and failed?

Either way, I don't have a result to give today.

Vote: Skenvoy

I support this product and/or service.

[Pine]

(And I highly recommend one of our power roles target Skenvoy tonight)

This is why we should be lynching Skenvoy. All other extremely valid reasons besides, this is a solid breadcrumb that Pads jailkept Skenvoy on N1. 50% the Town wins right now if we lynch Skenvoy.

No further excuses. This is happening.

Skenvoy, if you're Town, I apologize for the inconvenience, but you're a VT and it's a VT's job to die for Town when necessary. Besides, we can more or less Random Lynch our way to victory at this point, the odds of the one remaining scum making it to LyLo and then surviving it are small.

[Pine]

No. The killer would be roleblocked.

Hmm. You bring up a good point. He may have been breadcrumbing his intended night target.

Unvote

Need to consider this.

DeasVail is Town for this, despite Pom and Mattman's scumminess. Interesting.

That means by PoE, we're down to smallpeople (who I didn't get a result on N1,) applesinger, and Skenvoy.

Vote: Apple

This seems the obvious route. Two softclears, PoE makes it Apple.

[Pine]

I don't follow the logic of 294.

Smallpeople is not softcleared, but is reduced in priority due to my lack of Tracker result N1. With two scum, there's a 50% chance that he just got lucky with [L] performing the kill.

DeasVail is softcleared due to recognizing AND pointing out Pads's breadcrumb.

Skenvoy is strongly softcleared, because Pads breadcrumbed that he was going to Jailkeep her. If Skenvoy were scum, there would have been no kill last night.

IceGuy is cleared because of D2.

I am the Town's Tracker.

Apple is the only one left.

BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD.

[Pine]

Skenvoy is strongly softcleared, because Pads breadcrumbed that he was going to Jailkeep her.

Could you explain why "a power role should target her tomorrow" is a breadcrumb he was going to JK her?

It's an open setup. Pads knew that only his Jailkeeper role and my Tracker remained. Either of us targeting Skenvoy would give us a straight up-or-down guilty or innocent verdict on Skenvoy.

I feel it is a breadcrumb.

Not liking Skenvoy's false dichotomy right there though.

[Pine]

I'm still not seeing where iceguy is cleared, but I'm fine with an apple lynch. So long as, if he flips town, we lynch Iceguy tomorrow (unless Pine can explain properly how he's cleared).

False dichotomy

I'm okay with a hammer. Go for it.

Even if I'm completely wrong, and Skenvoy flips Town, we can afford a few mislynches. The last scum has to survive three more lynch phases with increasing odds each time that we find them. Go go go.

[Pine]

WTF. Town accidentally quickhammers all the time. Well, not all the time. But only Town CAN accidentally quickhammer.

[Pine]

The totals are 5 Town vs 1 scum. Mislynch, night kill = 3 vs 1.

Whoops, you're right.

Unvote

My vote will be going right back on Apple.

[Pine]

Bullshit. If everyone claims something, then scum won't know who to shoot. It will end up as a null benefit for scum.

NO. They know the kill last night was stopped by the JK. Therefore, the JK can only be a player who claims either shooting scum or victim as target. Scum knows who those two people are, we don't.

Then, if the JK has more results tomorrow, he or she can full claim and we'll have two results out of him or her.

Except scum has a good chance to nail the JK tonight, see above.

The Tracker can't help prevent that, he or she is not a Watcher.

My mistake - for some reason, I thought it was Watcher/JK, not Tracker/JK.

Shit, that's a good point. Paranoia's making me want to press harder on why your mind would have been thinking in that vein, but if you were scum you wouldn't have announced it with no pressure. Ice is Town, and jerobbo's vote above looks opportunistic.

Unvote

Need to do some rereading. At this point, I don't really have any Townreads of decent strength except my new one on Ice, and I'm second-guessing the piss out of myself. I'll post in the morning, it's almost half past 4 in the morning.

[Pine]

Lay off of Ice. He's Town, and so are you.

You should concentrate your attacks to Apple, Smallpeople, and Skenvoy, in decreasing intensity.

[Pine]

Anyone not support Apple's lynch? Good. I'm ready now, and TBH getting impatient.

[Pine]

^

Vote: Apple

Hammer.

Good win, Town.

[Pine]

Seriously? You blow up a fake hammer gambit? Stop failing.

[Pine]

Let's go people. Hammer or a good reason not to. I expect this out of everyone's next post.