Open 465 - Wot's... Uh the Deal? (Game Over! Town Win!)

[guille2015]

/confirm

[guille2015]

I like Mala's posts up to this point.

Quite a bit of pages last night. Good information.

Vote Adam

It seems like he is focusing all his attention on shrimp, especially on something that was quite minor, IMO. It will be interesting to see where he goes from here after he backed down from his Shrimp crusade.

There is something more from him that caught my eye. His questions are loaded questions. I only see scum intent in loaded questions.

My runner up scummy is Pirate Mollie. This one is more gut that anything else, and that I don't see much scummyness from the other posters.

[guille2015]

@Majiffy: I like it that you place the vote counts at the beginning of the page. However, can I request that you don't update those votecounts with votes that follow it? I find it confusing. Thanks.

Trying to keep it up-to-date. If this is what everyone wants then I'll just do whatever the vote count is as of the start of the page. Gunna need to hear from some more people about it though.

[guille2015]

I'll be responding soon. Please stand by.

[guille2015]

I'm running out of time at the office, and I have to leave soon. I'll post the most relevant things in this post and first thing tomorrow morning I'll give a full read on My scum suspects.

Guille -- One post. He has obviously misunderstood my method of scum hunting; blanket labeling questions as "scum loaded" is too easy. Has a scum read on Mollie?? I think its clear he has simply skimmed this thread. We definitely need to see more content from him than this.

First off, you seem to be labeling anyone who posts infrequently as scummy. Do consider that some of us do not have the ability to check and post 24/7. As a matter of fact I have posted every day since the game started. You are not the only one who thinks this way though. Mala has pointed this out several times.

About your question thing. Obviously, the problem is not that you are asking questions. The problem is that the questions are Loaded Questions. I will elaborate more on this tomorrow. My scum read on Mollie is gut really. However, reading on the following pages makes me think that a Adam/Mollie scum team is unlikely.

On #181 leviathan is concerned with the inactive players. calling them lurkers. I remind everyone that being inactive and being scum are not correlated. It is a fair point to start from because scum want the games to be slow paced and with little attention as possible. So, considering the inactive players and prodding for activity is a good way to access scum. However, I think that you have better reads in this list than going for the "lurker". Curious though, since I find that your list is lack luster and only contains assumptions that everyone but the people who haven't posted are town.

Mantis vote on me in # is bad. She points out misinformation in #202, and even after mentioning me as scum several times, she doesn't vote until #229, with a vote on Mollie in between.

molly, what are your thoughts on guille?

guille is moving with the herd and it depends on who you think is scummy.

look at who will be feeding this shit right now.

I don't think that actually answers Mantis Questions.

And finally for today, so that I can leave and do some other stuff. The last two posts by Leviathan are just bad. But Mala pretty much covers it.

Mala is town.

[guille2015]

1) He completely missed RVS
2) He posted in other games while this game was active
3) He finally posted here with a post that was an obvious skim and light on content

Let me get this out of the way before I comply with Adam's demands and my promise of giving full reads today.

1) Well, It happens. especially if RVS is over on the first post of the game. Post #14. As a matter of fact you acknowledge this in post #18. If you disagree you need to review what RVS means.

2) This is factually incorrect. The last confirmation happened at "Mon Nov 26, 2012 1:40 pm" by Prohawk on #13. My last post on the site for that day was "Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:06 am" prior to the start of the game. My next post on the site after the start of the game was post #140 for this game on "Tue Nov 27, 2012 9:33 am". If you want to continue with this thread of inquiry, notice that all of my posts after this are comprised of posts to this game and the game I am currently modding. It's a matter of time and availability. As a matter of fact, I just remember that I have completely neglected another game I'm in, and after posting this, I have to go post there to avoid a prod.

3) This is subjective so there is not much I can say about this. I agree on it being light in content, but it had enough content to justify my vote.

I'll get to my "content" posts later today.

[guille2015]

Adam-12

*Loaded questions are a tactic used by scum to make somebody look scummier than they already are. If done correctly, the town player will look scummy regardless of what they answer. Just like any other "scumtell", town will also use these, so it's nothing set in stone really. It depends on the frequency and whether there is followup. 26, 94, 120 (This one is rhetorical), and... My remember reading another question, similar in the vain as #26, but I can't seem to find it. Upon reading Adam's ISO more carefully, his loaded questions are not horribly bad. I would have liked a bit more follow up to it. His reaction to my accusations were a bit of the OMGUS type though.
*Post 52 struck me as odd. He has very little posts done overall for this assumption to be made. But regardless this is subjective and irrelevant.
*Post 78: "So you guys have played together before?" Does it matter?
*Post 125: "Would you be able to make the following statement: 'I'm not a total newb because I've played alot of Mafia in r/l and have been hanging out on this site.'" I think this is an irrelevant question. Additionally there is no followup, and Adam does not respond to Shrimps rebuttal.
*Post 135: After ISOing Adam, I like how he backed off shrimp. Recognizing your flawed viewpoint is a good trait to have. I don't see a scummy retraction here. He also retracted his flawed idea that I was actively lurking much later. +points.
*Reads on post 173: The reads are fine, with the exception of thinking that those that have not posted are scum. The most suspicious thing here is that he tags every female player is a male except for Mollie. Granted, Mollie is a female name, but without the gender tag at the bottom, it's hard to tell in the inter-webs. This is minor though.
*Why did you not like Mala's post here:

Spoiler:

Are you guys fucking serious?

He posted once and you are all ready to hammer him? Either he's seriously town and everyone's about to quicklynch him or he's scum with his partner seriously bussing his ass. I'm not convinced of the latter.

Hold your damn horses and wait for codeX to post reads.

I don't like this post.

*I am not going to get into detail about the Guille/Adam/Mala (guille-lurking) thing. We have already talked about it, resolved it, and closed it.

Unvote Adam-12

His followup posts later in the game have improved my perception of him. He is stubborn, rude and tunnels the hell out of people, but this in itself is no indication of being scum.

Because I have to go home now, the day was completely unproductive for my mafia. (Totally productive for my RL job though).

I will tackle Mantis and Pirate Mollie. The more I read from Mollie the harder it is to shake this scum gut sense, and I know it's not because she is constantly saying that I am being defensive. I want to remedy that by taking a very close look at her. Mantis reads as opportunists in this game. I need to read up on her to make sure that I am right about this.

[guille2015]

Are you in Australia Adam?

Regarding Guille, I expect him to honor his expressed intention to post regularly with substantial content and would ask that he give a summary of the major events of the day (Mala's RVS Levi case, Blacksmith Gate, Mollie-Mantis Meta, Myself vs. Shrimp, Hawk vs. Mollie and anything else of note that he finds).

Lets see, very quickly before I leave.
Mala's RVS Levi case: Good way to exit RVS. Got lots of information out of players and Levi came out looking town. Likely that Levi is town. Which reminds me that I have to check why Mollie is voting for Levi.

Blacksmith Gate

: Irrelevant. I got no useful information out of it. I've never heard of that term being used as a VT equivalent, and that is not the case here.

Mollie-Mantis Meta

: I missed this. I'll get back and check it out.

Adam vs. Shrimp

: You were tunneling him so hard that you likely made a hole in him. He came on top, and you were basing your arguments on flawed assumptions. Good retraction from your part. Shrimp responded well, which is no indication of alignment but I get a town feel from him.

Hawk vs. Mollie

: I missed this too. I'll get back to this when I ISO Mollie.

anything else of note that I finds

: Out of everyone in this game the people that stand out to me are Mollie and Mantis. Levi is likely town. I have a town read on Mala, and Up to this point I have never been mistaken with her. Adam-12 fairs better in the later half of the game. He needs to improve on his assumptions and make sure that they are correct. All in all, I don't think he is as scummy as I thought he was earlier. Shrimp, I have nothing much on him. Hawk, is someone I want to read through. Maybe town, but not sure. Nothing on Codex, I am looking forward to his replacement, or his return, whichever comes first.

[guille2015]

Great, fricken great. I typed out this post with a whole lot of stuff in it, and I tried to copy it, but I pressed ctrl V ! UGH!
So, long story short, I don't like Mollie and Mantis in these posts at all, and Adam-12 just got town points --->post 394

I will explain more tomorrow. I got to go to work.

ctrl+z works wonders.

[guille2015]

Ok, lets see what Pirate Mollie has been doing this game.

*I actually liked her vote on Levi starting the game. Here vote on Shrimp was bad though. Not only did she not let enough time for the effect of her Levi vote (pressure) to settle in, there was no followup on shrimp afterwards.
*Pointing out inconsistencies in PMs (66,71) is a strategy that both scum and town do. However, town don't usually make mistakes when pointing out inconsistencies. The blacksmith thing was is terminology from somewhere else and therefor irrelevant. Mollie makes tries to make it relevant.
*In post 124, reason to vote for Shrimp > OMGUS.
*The vote for Mantis in post 119 is iffy. I don't think that is a good reason to vote for someone. The worrysome part is that this goes uncontested for a while and Mollie wants other to vote for Mantis (154). The other part that I noticed was as follows:

is this a question for the sake of a question?

maybe you heard it from mantis adam in the QT!

@Shrimp: So is your vote serious or not, I can't seem to tell...

If you read his vote post he at the same time mentions his vote as RVS in a playful manner & as a serious vote for a scum tell. I hold that as disingenuous voting where he can swing responsibility both ways. So, no not a useless question at all.

It looked like shrimp maybe voted molly just as a joke at first. but then, when it was brought to his attention that malakitten was actually serious about her vote on leviathan for not confirming right away, and then saw molly's post where she somewhat furthered the idea by asking mala if it was because she thought leviathan wanted more time in pre scum chat... then his vote turned to a serious one.

i don't know if that makes sense.

guess what i'm trying to say is that i don't find shrimp all that suspicious. and i am wondering about molly myself.

and why is this exactly??? in the 2 years we have been playing together the only time you try to leave me out to rot is when you are scum.

VOTE: mantis

I noticed that the highlighted text was placed there by Mollie. I don't particularly understand the intention.
*The deal between mantis and Mollie makes me think that it would be unlikely for them to be scum buddies. I can't tell who had the upper hand here.
*I think her vote for ProHawk is a stretch. She is consistent though. There is little explanation behind this one too. I can see where it came from though.
*Post 247 has reads. Changed her opinion of Mantis. Which is normal, but for reasons I don't see. All the reads are noncommittal.
*I like her post 250.
*Post 317 is a response to me. I guess you are saying that you think I'm scummy to unsure. Your not really giving me much to work with. Let's see. I found this extremely funny:

this is your first decent question so far and it also contradicts question #2 since obviously I do not OMGUS and automatically get sus of whoever votes me!
it is a

gut

read but I did like his "are you the watcher or tracker immune ack ack ack" post. it looks town motivated to me.

...pretty sure hawk boy is town and thinking mantis is scum. it isn't based on

gut

like you tried to insinuate it was more that his "ack ack are watcher or tracker immune?" question...

there is a whole thread where surely you can come up with something better than "oh I think she is scum cos of a

gut

feeling", lol. you can pull when there has been a lynch or 2 but to pull that at the start of the game is pretty lame.

*Post 318 you agree with me about Adam's Loaded questions thing. Makes me wonder. When I ISOed him, the loaded question thing was less severe than I previously thought.

I'm going to stop here. I'll continue this tomorrow with the Prohawk vs Mollie thing, Which I have to pay much closer attention than I can at this moment. In general, all those points are minor really. I've read her with a very critical and biased eye. The conjunction of everything is what gives me the gut feeling. I kinda understand it though. Will finish up tomorrow. I think I know were my vote will go tomorrow.

[guille2015]

Guille its time for some real fire beneath your wings. Wagon Ho!

I'm looking forward to it. I will wait on others before I opine on your wagon.

[guille2015]

Continuing on my Mollie read.

*In post 326, Noted overreaction to Prohawk's test. I can believe that Prohawk was in fact testing. He already had a vote on me so he didn't have the hammer. In which case, it doesn't feel like retrofitting a solution.
*Post 328: "^eta: also I can't think of a protown reason to keep levi in the game the only people who will want him around are scum." I disagree with this. If Levi is a weak link, mafia will indeed keep him in the game. But in this case, he is considered town. If he is town, then scum got no reason to leave him to the end or they will lose.
*I find nothing productive in the Mollie vs Shrimp discussion. Mollie finds that being defensive is scummy yet she is being defensive from shrimp.
*In 415 she says the most interesting thing: "I don't like how adam is treating me as town but is okay with my lynch". She defends this in post 423 but I absolutely don't see it. Her examples are places were Adam asks for Mollies reads and opinions. This is standard play, IMO. In fact, it strengthens Adam as a townish player. Asking reads and opinions from you means that he is trying to get a better strength in your allignment. If it happens that you flip town, we would have a wealth of information to help us find scum, something that you have been adamant about in favoring.

mollie, how certain are you that shrimp could be scum?

not certain at all.

can't tell if he is retarded or scum.

I'm getting tired of this. This is an Ad hominem, and it's not the first. If his arguments are stupid, please point them out and say why.

@Pirate Mollie

: The only other game that you used the word Grooming was the Newbie 1286 game. I don't want to read through it, can you give me a summary of where that got you, considering you were town in that game.

Also:

@Pirate Mollie

: Rather than saying that my posts are indicative of being scum, feel free to explain why you feel that way because I just don't see it.

Conclusion: Adam has the best case on Mollie, and I agree with him. She is inconsistent. She overreacts to certain accusations and her OMGUS is off the charts.

Vote Pirate Mollie

[guille2015]

Let me try replying page by page. Should be faster and more concise. I have read through to the end already, so I might reference things to come.

@Pirate Mollie

: The only other game that you used the word Grooming was the Newbie 1286 game. I don't want to read through it, can you give me a summary of where that got you, considering you were town in that game.

i've heard her use grooming countless times before.

Conclusion: Adam has the best case on Mollie, and I agree with him. She is inconsistent. She overreacts to certain accusations and her OMGUS is off the charts.

i like how you added in that Adam (who is most likely town) has a good case on her. maybe you are buddying up to him?

i think guille is making a huge case on mollie because, i think scum were banking on her getting lynched. and they want to keep it that way.

I think so too!!!!

(...)

guille what exactly are you asking about grooming I don't understand your question could you plz clarify.

What benefit would mafia get from lynching Mollie. If she is the closest to figuring out who is scum, then lynching her now is the last thing mafia want done.

I placed the grooming question outside of my reads. Hence it's not part of my reads directly. I do want to know about it though, because this is something that I use as a scum-hunting tool. Although I call it buddying. From what I read from Mollie she considers it as a scum tell. Which is fine. I noticed the times It has been used with me. Although your defenition of grooming is different.

The reason I asked is because I don't have time to read through that game to get to the information I need. Best to ask the source. What I want is how accurate was identifying the grooming in that game to finding scum. Is it an effective marker?

I am cautious of shrimp for this reason, but Mala I can safely say is clear for me. I recognize this play of mala as her town meta. Could she have improved to the point that I would think this way. That's a possibility, but it's not something I am concerned at this point.

The reason I want to understand Mollie with her use of grooming as a marker for scum, is because she has pointed out several instances of grooming towards me and yet she thinks I am scum. By what I understand the grooming marker is reflective of Scum grooming Town. If I am wrong correct me.

K I'm as caught up as I'm gonna get.

Levi is town for stuff, Shrimp's probably town for being just on a totally different page than everyone else, Adam's town for the sincerity of his case but I don't like that case save that I think Mollie's vote on shrimp was bad. Otherwise I think it's confirmation bias in the sense that you're giving explanations of why scum-mollie would be AtEing all over the place -- that's circular logic.

Guille is weird. The conclusions in #462 (Adam's case being good) don't follow from the rest of that post (basically that Mollie does logical fallacies and ad-hominem, neither of which are scumtells).

Mollie's only bad points so far have been her voting patterns -- and that's honestly something I only really want to delve into if we get a scum flip. I'd sooner vote Guille over Mollie, but:

VOTE: ProHawk
#257 makes me wanna dig out that picture where the dude says "joke's on them I was only faking being retarded" because that's pretty much what you're doing here. Everyone you quoted in that post's reactions were some variation on "what the hell are you doing?" Mollie's was just a little blunter than the others -- and you didn't lambaste Mala for having essentially the same exact reaction. His jump off Mollie in #449 is awful especially with the tone of the rest of that post pointing to Mollie being scum and being dodgy about exactly what about Guille is bad to him.

@Mollie -- I'm Code. Why am I answering how you felt about him?

Bork, it's too bad you don't have a clue. But you're town so not much I can do about that.

I don't think that this posts clears him as town. I don't see scum intent however. But he is wrong though. Prohawk wants me lynched, and he says that I am likely scum with Prohawk. This game is not a game that benefits mafia if they bus each other on day one. Any serious intent of lynching between players is an indication that those two players are likely not scum buddies. In which case his argument falls short. Prohawk is probably town. Bork I am uncertain of yet.

Bork, logical fallacies and ad-hominem, are in fact scumtells or at the very least bad town play as they tend to reach the wrong conclusion. About the ad-hominem, I've been in this site long enough to know that I cannot use that as an argument for scummyness. I mention it in the previous post not as a way to say that Mollie is scum, but rather that Mollie's arguments are not good.

[guille2015]

Mollie

: If I were to trust that you are town and right. Other than voting for myself, who should I vote for?

[guille2015]

Bork, logical fallacies and ad-hominem, are in fact scumtells

No.

or at the very least bad town play as they tend to reach the wrong conclusion.

Yes.

About the ad-hominem, I've been in this site long enough to know that I cannot use that as an argument for scummyness. I mention it in the previous post not as a way to say that Mollie is scum, but rather that Mollie's arguments are not good.

This is pretty waffly, considering you're voting her. If she's scum, her arguments are being put forth to further a scum agenda, yeah? I don't see how you're showing that you believe that.

Scum would rely on a bad argument to further their agenda. Scum would avoid arguments that point to scum, so I find it more likely for scum to make bad arguments than town. Besides that not the only reason I am voting for her. It's an additional point of evidence against her favor. It also is dependent on what the scum agenda is. It might be really complicated or as simple as simply augmenting false accusations and minimizing the accurate accusations.

[guille2015]

Talking about grooming, if grooming is such a scum tell, then what's mantisdreamz doing in post 488.

also adam and shrimp, if you think i am town at all.. can you please trust my read on mollie?

I'm not going to agree with your read on mollie.
In post

206

you say you have a huge scum read on mollie, and then later on you want to team up.
Totally switchy.
In post

381

you even tell adam to take his vote off of Mollie, because if he doesn't you're calling him scum.
Sounds like a threat.
And in one of your latest posts, you say " Adam, levi or guille should be lynched this day. "
I really don't agree. Adam-12 is seriously getting a town read from me, and Guille has done nothing else than make a case on those he finds suspicious.
I do not agree with almost anything you have been doing lately, so no, I will not trust your read on mollie.

Pirate mollie

, what happened to your oh so clear scum read on Leviathan93?
And in post 435 and 439 you seem pretty confident about your scum read on Adam-12, but instead of vote for him,
a couple posts later you just switch to vote Guille2015 because you agree with Mantisdreamz, that he is making a huge case on you.
So, it's an OMGUS.
And you say this

yeah I pretty much insult everybody most of the time I usually don't mean any of it if you find yourself wanting to reach through the computer and strangle me you can pretty much bank on me being town if you find yourself liking me and thinking I am making sense you should probably be worried.

For the so manyeth time you WIFOM. You are trying to prove to me that you are town because if you were scum, you would make more sense???

You are definitely number one scum read, and Mantisdreamz is climbing up that ladder too.
your excuse for team working is because you have apparently played so many games together.
I don't trust this at all, I'm going to ask you one question.
Do you two know each other personally?
It might be that one or even both are scum or town, but that you two would work together regardless of each others alignments.
If you did know each other personally, there would be no stopping from you two communicating outside the game.
Which would ruin the game completely.

Leviathan93

,
can you please place a new post with your reads?

@Guille2015 , what do you think about what I mentioned in my last post?

By definition, Mollie should consider 488 as grooming. Basically, Mantis is using meta that we cannot see to explain that Mollie is town. His arguments to ascertain that Mollie is town are irrelevant. I can't see Mollie and Mantis as a scum team because of this. I would think that scum would not be so adamantly defending their buddy.
Mollie's been really heavy in the OMGUS votes and reactions. I would be interested in finding out if mollie does this as town. I'd leave that task to Mala since she is better at meta analysis than me. And has more time.
Shrimp, don't take her insults personally. She is the type of player that has that attitude here and It is in no way indicative of her alignment. It's just annoying and not enjoyable.

Finally:

Do you two know each other personally?
It might be that one or even both are scum or town, but that you two would work together regardless of each others alignments.
If you did know each other personally, there would be no stopping from you two communicating outside the game.
Which would ruin the game completely.

Please ignore this line of thinking. This is completely Irrelevant, unprovable, and I doubt that they would even attempt something like this.

[guille2015]

Spoiler:

Let me try replying page by page. Should be faster and more concise. I have read through to the end already, so I might reference things to come.

@Pirate Mollie

: The only other game that you used the word Grooming was the Newbie 1286 game. I don't want to read through it, can you give me a summary of where that got you, considering you were town in that game.

i've heard her use grooming countless times before.

Conclusion: Adam has the best case on Mollie, and I agree with him. She is inconsistent. She overreacts to certain accusations and her OMGUS is off the charts.

i like how you added in that Adam (who is most likely town) has a good case on her. maybe you are buddying up to him?

i think guille is making a huge case on mollie because, i think scum were banking on her getting lynched. and they want to keep it that way.

I think so too!!!!

(...)

guille what exactly are you asking about grooming I don't understand your question could you plz clarify.

What benefit would mafia get from lynching Mollie. If she is the closest to figuring out who is scum, then lynching her now is the last thing mafia want done.

I placed the grooming question outside of my reads. Hence it's not part of my reads directly. I do want to know about it though, because this is something that I use as a scum-hunting tool. Although I call it buddying. From what I read from Mollie she considers it as a scum tell. Which is fine. I noticed the times It has been used with me. Although your defenition of grooming is different.

The reason I asked is because I don't have time to read through that game to get to the information I need. Best to ask the source. What I want is how accurate was identifying the grooming in that game to finding scum. Is it an effective marker?

I am cautious of shrimp for this reason, but Mala I can safely say is clear for me. I recognize this play of mala as her town meta. Could she have improved to the point that I would think this way. That's a possibility, but it's not something I am concerned at this point.

The reason I want to understand Mollie with her use of grooming as a marker for scum, is because she has pointed out several instances of grooming towards me and yet she thinks I am scum. By what I understand the grooming marker is reflective of Scum grooming Town. If I am wrong correct me.

K I'm as caught up as I'm gonna get.

Levi is town for stuff, Shrimp's probably town for being just on a totally different page than everyone else, Adam's town for the sincerity of his case but I don't like that case save that I think Mollie's vote on shrimp was bad. Otherwise I think it's confirmation bias in the sense that you're giving explanations of why scum-mollie would be AtEing all over the place -- that's circular logic.

Guille is weird. The conclusions in #462 (Adam's case being good) don't follow from the rest of that post (basically that Mollie does logical fallacies and ad-hominem, neither of which are scumtells).

Mollie's only bad points so far have been her voting patterns -- and that's honestly something I only really want to delve into if we get a scum flip. I'd sooner vote Guille over Mollie, but:

VOTE: ProHawk
#257 makes me wanna dig out that picture where the dude says "joke's on them I was only faking being retarded" because that's pretty much what you're doing here. Everyone you quoted in that post's reactions were some variation on "what the hell are you doing?" Mollie's was just a little blunter than the others -- and you didn't lambaste Mala for having essentially the same exact reaction. His jump off Mollie in #449 is awful especially with the tone of the rest of that post pointing to Mollie being scum and being dodgy about exactly what about Guille is bad to him.

@Mollie -- I'm Code. Why am I answering how you felt about him?

Bork, it's too bad you don't have a clue. But you're town so not much I can do about that.

I don't think that this posts clears him as town. I don't see scum intent however. But he is wrong though. Prohawk wants me lynched, and he says that I am likely scum with Prohawk. This game is not a game that benefits mafia if they bus each other on day one. Any serious intent of lynching between players is an indication that those two players are likely not scum buddies. In which case his argument falls short. Prohawk is probably town. Bork I am uncertain of yet.

Bork, logical fallacies and ad-hominem, are in fact scumtells or at the very least bad town play as they tend to reach the wrong conclusion. About the ad-hominem, I've been in this site long enough to know that I cannot use that as an argument for scummyness. I mention it in the previous post not as a way to say that Mollie is scum, but rather that Mollie's arguments are not good.

wth bold: how does that even make sense. scum will want anybody lynched who is not on there team especially if that person is fosing them. I am seriously not understanding your logic here.

If you flip town, FOS will fall on me. So, If I were scum the last thing I'd do was to lynch you. However, that's WIFOM regardless. We cannot figure out scum intent in who they want to lynch and why.

BTW, please answer my question:

Mollie

: If I were to trust that you are town and right. Other than voting for myself, who should I vote for?

[guille2015]

And in one of your latest posts, you say " Adam, levi or guille should be lynched this day. "
I really don't agree. Adam-12 is seriously getting a town read from me, and Guille has done nothing else than make a case on those he finds suspicious.

no, i said: Adam - levi or guille should be..... etc

note the dash, i was speaking to him. but on second thought, i shouldn't be telling people who to lynch i guess. I have adam as town as well.

hmmm. Your original statement had no dash. the original is ambiguous so I can understand any confusion.

If Mantis is correct (I think she is town), Hawk-Mollie are a strong town voting block and I remember how that felt early on. I actually liked that feeling.

At this point, Bork is whey scummier than Mollie.

Can you please remind me why you find Mantis town.

Besides this Guille thing was just another probe, amirite?

I believe Prohawk is serious.

[guille2015]

Anyone else notice how he managed to make it all the way to L-1, with my voicings of impending doom causing the not so innocent to lash out in anger and he fails to even mention anything about it?

I did not think it was necessary at the time. My post at the time concentrated on Adam and Mantis who were voting me. Everyone else, I had no suspicion at the moment, (Hawk and Levi). I had the sense that it was a town driven wagon and found I had nothing else to add that wasn't already said.

[guille2015]

I had that saved. Wanted to post it after everyone said something and then forgot.

Vote Count

Adam-12 (L-4): Malakittens
Pirate Mollie (L-3): Shrimp85, Guile
Guile (L-3): ProHawk, Pirate Mollie
Mantisdreamz(L-4): borkjerfkin
borkjerfkin (L-4): Adam-12

Not Voting: leviathan93, Mantisdreamz

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is Monday, December 17, 2012 at 12:40 PM EST

[guille2015]

my point is. the more experienced players are scum. i'm sorry I don't know how personally experienced all of you are or who actually knows what. this could just be a lame unimportant assumption. but i thought it would be good to throw out there.

and exactly as I said mala. I feel there is a possibility here. do you not like that? i did not know that you could talk during the beginning as scum before the game started in the confirmation stage. majiffy claimed and said that the scum could talk during that time and DID talk during that time. because I was unaware that this was possible i'm wondering who out of us truly knew it was possible. maybe that was all of you except me and so it was pointless to say, but even if it was 3 of us innocents that would still make it only 4 people we would have to look at. i know lying is still a factor in this but still. i thought it would help.

This line of thinking is irrelevant. Mala did a test and you passed. Roles are given out randomly so testing for experience is not the way to go.

Spoiler:

Let me try replying page by page. Should be faster and more concise. I have read through to the end already, so I might reference things to come.

@Pirate Mollie

: The only other game that you used the word Grooming was the Newbie 1286 game. I don't want to read through it, can you give me a summary of where that got you, considering you were town in that game.

i've heard her use grooming countless times before.

Conclusion: Adam has the best case on Mollie, and I agree with him. She is inconsistent. She overreacts to certain accusations and her OMGUS is off the charts.

i like how you added in that Adam (who is most likely town) has a good case on her. maybe you are buddying up to him?

i think guille is making a huge case on mollie because, i think scum were banking on her getting lynched. and they want to keep it that way.

I think so too!!!!

(...)

guille what exactly are you asking about grooming I don't understand your question could you plz clarify.

What benefit would mafia get from lynching Mollie. If she is the closest to figuring out who is scum, then lynching her now is the last thing mafia want done.

I placed the grooming question outside of my reads. Hence it's not part of my reads directly. I do want to know about it though, because this is something that I use as a scum-hunting tool. Although I call it buddying. From what I read from Mollie she considers it as a scum tell. Which is fine. I noticed the times It has been used with me. Although your defenition of grooming is different.

The reason I asked is because I don't have time to read through that game to get to the information I need. Best to ask the source. What I want is how accurate was identifying the grooming in that game to finding scum. Is it an effective marker?

I am cautious of shrimp for this reason, but Mala I can safely say is clear for me. I recognize this play of mala as her town meta. Could she have improved to the point that I would think this way. That's a possibility, but it's not something I am concerned at this point.

The reason I want to understand Mollie with her use of grooming as a marker for scum, is because she has pointed out several instances of grooming towards me and yet she thinks I am scum. By what I understand the grooming marker is reflective of Scum grooming Town. If I am wrong correct me.

K I'm as caught up as I'm gonna get.

Levi is town for stuff, Shrimp's probably town for being just on a totally different page than everyone else, Adam's town for the sincerity of his case but I don't like that case save that I think Mollie's vote on shrimp was bad. Otherwise I think it's confirmation bias in the sense that you're giving explanations of why scum-mollie would be AtEing all over the place -- that's circular logic.

Guille is weird. The conclusions in #462 (Adam's case being good) don't follow from the rest of that post (basically that Mollie does logical fallacies and ad-hominem, neither of which are scumtells).

Mollie's only bad points so far have been her voting patterns -- and that's honestly something I only really want to delve into if we get a scum flip. I'd sooner vote Guille over Mollie, but:

VOTE: ProHawk
#257 makes me wanna dig out that picture where the dude says "joke's on them I was only faking being retarded" because that's pretty much what you're doing here. Everyone you quoted in that post's reactions were some variation on "what the hell are you doing?" Mollie's was just a little blunter than the others -- and you didn't lambaste Mala for having essentially the same exact reaction. His jump off Mollie in #449 is awful especially with the tone of the rest of that post pointing to Mollie being scum and being dodgy about exactly what about Guille is bad to him.

@Mollie -- I'm Code. Why am I answering how you felt about him?

Bork, it's too bad you don't have a clue. But you're town so not much I can do about that.

I don't think that this posts clears him as town. I don't see scum intent however. But he is wrong though. Prohawk wants me lynched, and he says that I am likely scum with Prohawk. This game is not a game that benefits mafia if they bus each other on day one. Any serious intent of lynching between players is an indication that those two players are likely not scum buddies. In which case his argument falls short. Prohawk is probably town. Bork I am uncertain of yet.

Bork, logical fallacies and ad-hominem, are in fact scumtells or at the very least bad town play as they tend to reach the wrong conclusion. About the ad-hominem, I've been in this site long enough to know that I cannot use that as an argument for scummyness. I mention it in the previous post not as a way to say that Mollie is scum, but rather that Mollie's arguments are not good.

wth bold: how does that even make sense. scum will want anybody lynched who is not on there team especially if that person is fosing them. I am seriously not understanding your logic here.

If you flip town, FOS will fall on me. So, If I were scum the last thing I'd do was to lynch you. However, that's WIFOM regardless. We cannot figure out scum intent in who they want to lynch and why.

BTW, please answer my question:

Mollie

: If I were to trust that you are town and right. Other than voting for myself, who should I vote for?

in response to my question okay that clears things up.

I am not sure who you should vote for I don't even know who to vote for lol. I say hawk boy cos given the content of his posts he should know better but I still wonder about borky. shrimp guy is doing exactly what I expect scum to do he is mischaracterising and misrepresenting posts yet he is being given a pass and he is skating.

mischaracterisation and misrepresentation are tools used by scum logical fallacies and ad homs are not, you should probably listen to borky on this for future reference there is a difference.

I somewhat agree, however, Scum are likely to commit a much larger portion of logical fallacies than town would, specifically because they want the town to look guilty. Ad Homs are not scum tells. But logicall fallacies will lead you to scum easier. Mischaracterization and misrepresentation are logical fallacies in themselves.

lol just saw this in post edit:

That, but I think they were asking if scum were allowed to talk during the pre game confirmation stage.

Oh. Yes, they are/were.

based on this post. I also was thinking that the

those of us who are scum

knew that one could use the quicktopic chat thing before the game. this I would rule is their experience told them that. Shrimp guy and I are the ones I know that apparently did not know this was possible as shrimp guy did say that he didn't know. he could have been lying but all in all hawks post about him making a unintentional town tell seems to be understandable. therefore. I feel me, shrimp, adam, hawk. as town. mala could also be possible town and is leaning that way, but i'm worried about a wrong gut feeling with her. that leaves, mantis, possble scum, and guille as well with a possible borkkhfergnin or whatever his name is. but i think borkergin is town.

LOL.

VOTE: leviathan

This is not a scumslip.

[guille2015]

Wow, wtf, I just realized that.

What did you realize?

Hey Mala, lets see some real content from you. K. Thx.

I also want this. And yes, you have supplied content, but not of late.

I was honestly joking.

I was overexcited as scum in my first scum game.

Hey Pro, lay off, I have supplied content.

Also, Guille it's hard to meta someone with one completed game. >.>

I know it's hard, that's why I am not doing it. If I had time, I'd read that entire game to see if Mollie OMGUSed like she does here.

Mala: Can you remind me why you have a vote on Adam.

[guille2015]

It is now confirmed that Pirate mollie knows Mantisdreamz personally.
Guille, you say not to use this in the game, but I can't help it. It's there,and I cannot ignore it.

I said not to use the possibility of them cheating in the game. There are plenty of people in this forum that know each other personally. I don't expect them to cheat. Unless you find actual evidence of this breach in the rules of the forum then you should forget about this line of reasoning. If there is evidence of this then you should take it up with Majiffy.

That aside, only scum knows everyone alignment. I can only interpret your conclusion as to say that both Mantis and Mollie are scum. You have nothing to show otherwise.

[guille2015]

ALL of his posts (few I might add) are like this. What is the deal with these fence sitters this game? Guille, you are taking your sweet time which just may be how you play, but its lookin bad to me. I would much rather see you take time to compile a complete post, instead of leaving us with bits and pieces and have to wait a whole day to get part B.

@Guille: Why did you say earlier that because you "have to go home" you cannot devote more time to Mafia; shouldn't it be the opposite?

I DO need an answer to this question.

Unfortunately, i have family duties when I get home. My wife get's pissed when I spend too much time in Mafia. I take time during work to get into mafia. I can mostly juggle work and mafia, but lately work has been a bit more taxing. So, going home is like not being able to play mafia much. I tend to read when I am home to keep myself up to date, but replying to post is much harder, so I don't do it.

[guille2015]

Mala's lack of content is acceptable per her reasonable excuse. I anxiously await for he read. It seems like she is trying to ISO Adam. Poor thing, might as well just read everything.

[guille2015]

Anyone else notice how he managed to make it all the way to L-1, with my voicings of impending doom causing the not so innocent to lash out in anger and he fails to even mention anything about it?

I did not think it was necessary at the time. My post at the time concentrated on Adam and Mantis who were voting me. Everyone else, I had no suspicion at the moment, (Hawk and Levi). I had the sense that it was a town driven wagon and found I had nothing else to add that wasn't already said.

I had that saved. Wanted to post it after everyone said something and then forgot.

@Guille: Could you please post how the bolded makes sense in relation to the post immediately before it (sequentially previous by post count)? I am not able to make sense out of the bolded.

I had post 649 written way back when Prohawk asked me about it. But I then decided against posting it. I posted this instead:

Guille its time for some real fire beneath your wings. Wagon Ho!

I'm looking forward to it. I will wait on others before I opine on your wagon.

I wanted to see how others reacted to Prohawk's play. But it was pretty much ignored so I forgot about it. until I read this:

Calm... a little too calm if you ask me. He was up on the lynching block twice. Oh Guille, you have earned bonus points for making more than one post today, but you still failed to comment on your wagon which you promised to do.

I need to see what you have to say before I delve into your logical inconsistencies. Thanks!

When I read it, I had to respond as soon as I could so that I wouldn't forget again. It was easy since I had already written it up.

The best information I get get out of this is that most everyone is ignoring prohawk's position towards me (after the wagon died off), and that Prohawk is most likely Town.

[guille2015]

my point is. the more experienced players are scum. i'm sorry I don't know how personally experienced all of you are or who actually knows what. this could just be a lame unimportant assumption. but i thought it would be good to throw out there.

and exactly as I said mala. I feel there is a possibility here. do you not like that? i did not know that you could talk during the beginning as scum before the game started in the confirmation stage. majiffy claimed and said that the scum could talk during that time and DID talk during that time. because I was unaware that this was possible i'm wondering who out of us truly knew it was possible. maybe that was all of you except me and so it was pointless to say, but even if it was 3 of us innocents that would still make it only 4 people we would have to look at. i know lying is still a factor in this but still. i thought it would help.

This line of thinking is irrelevant.

Mala did a test and you passed

. Roles are given out randomly so testing for experience is not the way to go.

@Guille: Can you please explain the underlined?

Her RVS break was serious and it served as a test. At least I took it like that. I expect that a scummy player would have behaved nervously if this was in fact the real reason why he confirmed late. I and presumably Mala were waiting for any hint that would be some sort of scum slip. But it didn't happen. At the very least it means that the delayed confirmation was not on purpose. Likely why Mala unvoted. In other words, we cannot discern if he is scum from his reaction to the test.

[guille2015]

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p4519847]post 813[/url], Malakittens"]Sigh. For %*%*% sakes. I'm starting to links just don't like me. Even those done on my phone don't work.[/quote]
Use the [ post][/post] the tags. They seem to work better. And I always include the Post number so in case the link does not work, then we can just look for the number.

[guille2015]

Twilight

My wife made me record the second movie. For some odd reason, I have managed to escape the viewing, I'm just letting the DVR auto erase after a while

[guille2015]

Anyways, I don't have much to add at this point. Adam, that was an extremely long post, I'm sure Mala is going to appreciate it. I haven't read it completely yet, but from the parts that I read, I am in agreement. Additionally, I doubt that scum would point out some of the things you have pointed out. That's basically a very well thought out summary of the game, but with your opinion in them, which is a plus.

Here is my town reads. Hawk > Adam > Mala.

My scum reads are basically Mollie > Mantis.

Shirmp, Bork and Levi, I can't get my mind around yet.

[guille2015]

My scum reads are basically Mollie > Mantis.

You are saying they are both scum together?

Hard to say really. The way they act has me thinking that they are not both scum together. I figure that at least one of them is scum. Rare chance of them both being scum.

[guille2015]

Thor's here. I can hear the thunder. This will be interesting!

Asking to be replaced out of a game is in no way indicative of a person's allignment. That said, Mantis should have had an opinion of this case but didn't (or I missed it).

@Mantis: What's your opinion of Mollie replacing out and how does it compares to her meta?

No one seems to understand what this means, even as they can't point at any scum bussing me.

I would think that Inexperience players are likely not in interest to bus this game. There is very little advantage for scum to buss this game. So I find it likely that if Thor is scum, none of the ones in the wagon, including Hawk are scum. Out of the people outside of the wagon we have: Levi, Shrimp, Mantis and Mala. I doubt that any of them as scum will buss a scum-Thor. The situation changes if Thor is town. And that would completely mess with my reads.

Thor, I'll give you my reasons for voting on Monday.

Prohawk, Wanting a quicklynch on a replaced player is bad. The case on Mollie is not as certain as you think it is. And I have to check if you thought it was certain or not in your prior posts.

Mala: You totally should not have ignored Thor! But I caught something in your meta that you are not going to like. More on that on Monday.

Ok, I'll unvote before somebody convinces Shrimp or Levi to vote for thor. I want to get my ideas out there and the weekend is not going to help. I'll be back.

Unvote

[guille2015]

Unfortunately my time here is limited. So I will be quick. I'll just answer that which people seem to be waiting for me, so that you can proceed.

I was going to refine my case on Mollie, but I don't have time to do that, I will refer you to the posts in which I made the case:

Spoiler: Guille's Mollie Case

Ok, lets see what Pirate Mollie has been doing this game.

*I actually liked her vote on Levi starting the game. Here vote on Shrimp was bad though. Not only did she not let enough time for the effect of her Levi vote (pressure) to settle in, there was no followup on shrimp afterwards.
*Pointing out inconsistencies in PMs (66,71) is a strategy that both scum and town do. However, town don't usually make mistakes when pointing out inconsistencies. The blacksmith thing was is terminology from somewhere else and therefor irrelevant. Mollie makes tries to make it relevant.
*In post 124, reason to vote for Shrimp > OMGUS.
*The vote for Mantis in post 119 is iffy. I don't think that is a good reason to vote for someone. The worrysome part is that this goes uncontested for a while and Mollie wants other to vote for Mantis (154). The other part that I noticed was as follows:

is this a question for the sake of a question?

maybe you heard it from mantis adam in the QT!

@Shrimp: So is your vote serious or not, I can't seem to tell...

If you read his vote post he at the same time mentions his vote as RVS in a playful manner & as a serious vote for a scum tell. I hold that as disingenuous voting where he can swing responsibility both ways. So, no not a useless question at all.

It looked like shrimp maybe voted molly just as a joke at first. but then, when it was brought to his attention that malakitten was actually serious about her vote on leviathan for not confirming right away, and then saw molly's post where she somewhat furthered the idea by asking mala if it was because she thought leviathan wanted more time in pre scum chat... then his vote turned to a serious one.

i don't know if that makes sense.

guess what i'm trying to say is that i don't find shrimp all that suspicious. and i am wondering about molly myself.

and why is this exactly??? in the 2 years we have been playing together the only time you try to leave me out to rot is when you are scum.

VOTE: mantis

I noticed that the highlighted text was placed there by Mollie. I don't particularly understand the intention.
*The deal between mantis and Mollie makes me think that it would be unlikely for them to be scum buddies. I can't tell who had the upper hand here.
*I think her vote for ProHawk is a stretch. She is consistent though. There is little explanation behind this one too. I can see where it came from though.
*Post 247 has reads. Changed her opinion of Mantis. Which is normal, but for reasons I don't see. All the reads are noncommittal.
*I like her post 250.
*Post 317 is a response to me. I guess you are saying that you think I'm scummy to unsure. Your not really giving me much to work with. Let's see. I found this extremely funny:

this is your first decent question so far and it also contradicts question #2 since obviously I do not OMGUS and automatically get sus of whoever votes me!
it is a

gut

read but I did like his "are you the watcher or tracker immune ack ack ack" post. it looks town motivated to me.

...pretty sure hawk boy is town and thinking mantis is scum. it isn't based on

gut

like you tried to insinuate it was more that his "ack ack are watcher or tracker immune?" question...

there is a whole thread where surely you can come up with something better than "oh I think she is scum cos of a

gut

feeling", lol. you can pull when there has been a lynch or 2 but to pull that at the start of the game is pretty lame.

*Post 318 you agree with me about Adam's Loaded questions thing. Makes me wonder. When I ISOed him, the loaded question thing was less severe than I previously thought.

I'm going to stop here. I'll continue this tomorrow with the Prohawk vs Mollie thing, Which I have to pay much closer attention than I can at this moment. In general, all those points are minor really. I've read her with a very critical and biased eye. The conjunction of everything is what gives me the gut feeling. I kinda understand it though. Will finish up tomorrow. I think I know were my vote will go tomorrow.

Continuing on my Mollie read.

*In post 326, Noted overreaction to Prohawk's test. I can believe that Prohawk was in fact testing. He already had a vote on me so he didn't have the hammer. In which case, it doesn't feel like retrofitting a solution.
*Post 328: "^eta: also I can't think of a protown reason to keep levi in the game the only people who will want him around are scum." I disagree with this. If Levi is a weak link, mafia will indeed keep him in the game. But in this case, he is considered town. If he is town, then scum got no reason to leave him to the end or they will lose.
*I find nothing productive in the Mollie vs Shrimp discussion. Mollie finds that being defensive is scummy yet she is being defensive from shrimp.
*In 415 she says the most interesting thing: "I don't like how adam is treating me as town but is okay with my lynch". She defends this in post 423 but I absolutely don't see it. Her examples are places were Adam asks for Mollies reads and opinions. This is standard play, IMO. In fact, it strengthens Adam as a townish player. Asking reads and opinions from you means that he is trying to get a better strength in your allignment. If it happens that you flip town, we would have a wealth of information to help us find scum, something that you have been adamant about in favoring.

mollie, how certain are you that shrimp could be scum?

not certain at all.

can't tell if he is retarded or scum.

I'm getting tired of this. This is an Ad hominem, and it's not the first. If his arguments are stupid, please point them out and say why.

@Pirate Mollie

: The only other game that you used the word Grooming was the Newbie 1286 game. I don't want to read through it, can you give me a summary of where that got you, considering you were town in that game.

Also:

@Pirate Mollie

: Rather than saying that my posts are indicative of being scum, feel free to explain why you feel that way because I just don't see it.

Conclusion: Adam has the best case on Mollie, and I agree with him. She is inconsistent. She overreacts to certain accusations and her OMGUS is off the charts.

Vote Pirate Mollie

Basically, inconsistencies, overreactions, and OMGUS. Plus I noticed a couple of times in which she used an argument somebody found on another person to attack that person. Additionally, Adam's case on her also helped me with my vote.

@Mala: Basically if Thor is scum. I would expect that you are his Buddy. I don't think you will bus in this game as scum. Not many players would hardcore bus in this game. That said, if you are scum then your scum buddy is someone that has not received serious votes from you. By serious I mean with the intent to hammer.

I have to reread the last 5 pages again. I read them too fast for my own good. Thor is doing a good job at replacing someone. Doesn't mean he is not scum, just that if I analyze him alone, I can't tell.

Shrimp is Likely town

. at the very least if Thor flips scum, shrimp is not his partner.

Post 1110 is a town slip

. Ok, after writting that it shrimp scum would have made the same mistake if Thor is town. I would like to here what mala has to say, sorry if my information is less than what you expected. I'll review the last pages tomorrow. Oh, And I have the feeling that Prohawk is town. So I don't endorse his lynch.

Vote Count
Thor665 (L-2): Shrimp85, Adam-12, ProHawk
Mantisdreamz (L-4): borkjerfkin
ProHawk (L-3): Thor665, Malakittens
Malakittens (L-4): Mantisdreamz

Not Voting: leviathan93, Guile

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is Monday, December 17, 2012 at 12:40 PM EST

[guille2015]

@Mod: Can we please prod Guille

@Mod: Can we please prod Guille

Patience

[guille2015]

We seemed to have gotten a bit to far with the meta thing. Out of all the things that Adam and Hawk have been pointing out for Mala in her meta is mostly stuff from her that she does as both town and Scum. On games that are quite active as this one is, then her posting is reduced, and her reads become worse if she is scum.

There worse things (Meta wise) that Mala has done in this game, That I noticed, was when she defended me from Prohawks intent to hammer (which wasn't a real intent since he was already voting for me). If I remember correctly she went ahead and voted for Prohawk while berating him (Correct me if I'm wrong about her vote). The defense was well placed and the argument was logical. I cannot say this was scummy because I would have done the same thing in her place. I have noticed that she does this as scum, but it is not a strong tell in her.

She does this meta argument basically in every game, whether she is town or scum. And her statement that she is better after a few days is null.

Mala is the only one that considers Levi and Shrimp Lynch-worthy. This is something I don't see scum-Mala doing. Then again I don't see where her arguments for this is.

I am not yet convinced enough to lynch Mala. I am going to read Prohawk's case more closely thought. It has intrigued me.

Prohawk has gotten considerably weaker since Thor came into play. I noticed his attempt to put an Adhom accusation on Thor, but they were not really Adhom attacks. Thor points it out later. Regardless, prohawk has been consistent and has acknowledged his mistakes so I give him town points for that.

Thor is rock solid in his play (It must be the beard). My only problem with him is that he has not acknowledge that any of the accusations placed on him could be a valid argument. This of course is not a bad thing, and he is write with most, but I think that some of the arguments placed on him were actually valid, even if he is town.

@

Thor

: Is there a reason that you pull your vote from Prohawk?

I am actually considering Mantis as a potential lynch today. But I need to check it better.

[guille2015]

I think meta arguments can be used to prove logical inconsistencies but for behavior tells its pretty dicey.

I agree with this.

[guille2015]

On games that are quite active as this one is, then her posting is reduced, and her reads become worse if she is scum.

Mala is the only one that considers Levi and Shrimp Lynch-worthy

.

This is something I don't see scum-Mala doing.

Then again I don't see where her arguments for this is.

If I am correct in linking these statements together logically, I don't understand the bolded because of the underlined.

I would think that Mala as scum would be going for a less controversial lynch. Not many scum do this (standing out like this), and I doubt Mala is doing this.

[guille2015]

i would honestly vote for shrimp for this line:
"We have all day, don't try to quick lynch, it would be a waste of all the precious time town could use for their benefit."

not even because of the possibly scum slip where he refers to town as separate from him.
but because he actually says: "waste of all the

precious

time"

what an exaggeration.

How would you have phrased it?

[guille2015]

Welcome to the game Angel. Sorry for the long game though, but blame Adam, this is mostly his fault.

Anyways, your entry post #1315 confirms my thoughts that you are town.

[guille2015]

Hey Guille, if Angel's entry post looks town to you, what does Thor's entry post look like to you?

Thor's entry post looks town to me too. Hence Why I haven't returned my vote. My mind is going haywire in this game.

[guille2015]

@Guille: Could you please expand on how her entry post makes you feel that way?

Based on the descriptions for each player I can infer that she is honestly reading the game. By the way she goes about it, I guess that she is reading it without any bias to start which is something that scum will not do. Of course this doesn't meant that she is conf town or that she can't be a smart scum posting this way. But with the read I had with Shrimp and this I am confident to say that Angel is Town.

Vote Count
Thor665 (L-4): Adam-12
ProHawk (L-4): Malakittens
Malakittens (L-2): Thor665, ProHawk, borkjerfkin
ArcAngel9 (L-3): Mantisdreamz, Leviathan93

Not Voting: Guile, ArcAngel9

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is Monday, December 17, 2012 at 12:40 PM EST

[guille2015]

I bave fairly reviewed few pages..so this is just my preliminary opinion on each of you..

Welcome to the game Angel. Sorry for the long game though, but blame Adam, this is mostly his fault.

Anyways, your entry post #1315 confirms my thoughts that you are town.

Did you see this?

Yes, what of it?

[guille2015]

Now I am seeing that everything you just said conflicts with how I saw Thor replace in, can you elaborate on him now?

Let's see. Thor's arguments are sound. He came in with a perfect strategy developed from several games prior. A strategy that is capable of nullifying someone's scummy nature, whether he is scum or town. The accusations on Mollie were weak but plentiful and he pointed it out. I don't think that replacing into the game like he did is scummy, more like null. He also came in with a predisposition of being as helpful as possible (with anything other than catching up), this gives him town points.

Of course, I am not saying he is town. He has done a few things that I am suspicious of. I am also waiting for him to respond something that I asked. I agree that Mollies points are weak, but they are plentiful enough to be considered lynch worthy. But the reason I am hesitant about Lynching Thor is because he is an incredible asset if he is town. So I need to gauge him completely to make sure that that is the right decision.

[guille2015]

I asked because your "confirmation of town" read stuck out to me for the reason of that first post segment I quoted; I find myself incapable of coming to that conclusion because of that segment...

Not confirmation of town, "confirms my thoughts that you are town". I had a predisposition that Shrimp is town, and by reading that I am confident in my thought that she is town. This is my personal confirmation. Whether I am right or wrong, I think she is town.

[guille2015]

@

Levi

:

Why is Mala Conf town for you?
Why is Thor Town?


So you basically have no reads on anyone, everybody else is null? Care to commit to a Vote?

@

Everyone

: Does anybody find it odd that Levi interacts/responds with Mollie in only has 3 posts out of 80? For comparison, he has 10 posts on Thor.

Vote Count
Thor665 (L-4): Adam-12
ProHawk (L-4): Malakittens
Malakittens (L-2): Thor665, ProHawk, borkjerfkin
ArcAngel9 (L-4): Mantisdreamz

Not Voting: Guile, ArcAngel9, Leviathan93

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is Monday, December 17, 2012 at 12:40 PM EST

[guille2015]

Btw Guille, is this all you have to say because we are going to be in a terrible time crunch on Monday...

Shouldn't be a problem. I'll place my vote before the deadline.

[guille2015]

Spoiler:

@

Levi

:

Why is Mala Conf town for you?
Why is Thor Town?


So you basically have no reads on anyone, everybody else is null? Care to commit to a Vote?

@

Everyone

: Does anybody find it odd that Levi interacts/responds with Mollie in only has 3 posts out of 80? For comparison, he has 10 posts on Thor.

Mala is town because I have always seen her as such pretty much. In the beginning I got an innocent vibe for her being so helpful and logically/rationally scumhunting. She hasn't seemed to do anything scummy to me even though y'all claims that she has. the way she questioned shrimp in the beginning as well as jumped on me as well as trying to get out of RVS as soon as possible because that benefits town seemed like she was really trying to help. i doubt scum would do that.

as well as the same for thor/mollie. mollie seemed to be doing somethings that were scummy a bit, but then again I feel my natural play makes me look incredibly scummy sometimes. that was just my reads for mollie. when thor came into play he seemed to be logically playing his thor self being helpful and analytical and all as well as blunt and dickish. yes, he can be scum and doing this to throw us off his path but i just don't know. as well s the fact that i stated since thor took mollie's place i doubt I could ever read thor correctly because of his experience. so with him i have always decided to take a side and stick with it. i say town right now cuz i feel he redeemed himself from mollie's play.

as well as for you guille. are you trying to make me look scummy because I have you as one of my most likely scum? what does it matter how many posts I have on a person or whatnot? are you trying to force a scumtell here? you're jump on me makes me think you as looking more scummy and would have looked better to me if you hadn't.

Not at all. I don't really care if you think I'm scum. As for the number of post relevant to Mollie, is weak really. I am asking to gauge the response of everyone and check who flips out about it. It's not false though, because I do think that scum sometimes forgets to talk about their scum-mates and end up adding them as a second thought. This can also happen to town so I have to be careful with it. Now, I'll go and see how people responded.

As for your town reads, well, I'll just call it gut on your part.

[guille2015]

I'm sorry, but there's been posts by Mantis that I truly believe are from town. Bork makes me feel otherwise tbh.

vote: bork

Which?

Vote Count
Thor665 (L-4): Adam-12
Malakittens (L-4): Thor665
Borkjerfkin (L-3): Mantisdreamz, Malakittens
Mantis (L-2): ProHawk, Borkjerfkin, Leviathan93
Mantis (L-4): ArcAngel9

Not Voting: Guile

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is Monday, December 17, 2012 at 12:40 PM EST

[guille2015]

I advocate a Lynch on Levi or Mantis.

With a preference on Levi. I can understand that we are very close to the deadline.

I let many things fly past me from Levi. But it adds up by now.

His read on Mollie/Thor I find suspect. He mentions little of Mollie, and then says that Mollie was acting scummy but he thought that because somebody looks scummy doesn't mean they are. However, if he noticed that he should have taken that into account. I get a general feel that he always thought Mollie was town, but he doesn't clearly explain why. I can speculate that if Levi is scum and Mollie is town, he might have considered Mollie a sure lynch and would want to distance himself from the mislynch.

I checked your scum reads. It's me and Bork(CodeX). This starts from the time were you were saying that not being active is Lurking. You are consistent with this play except for post 628 in which you say:

"Guille seems innocent and helpful to be now, but I get this weird feeling that people don't really believe that and i'm curious of that matter. All i see is innocence and helpful pro town actions. could be a play, but i don't know. borkfkergin or whatever seems innocent as well and more helpful then code x was. he seems innocent."

That changes back to your original reads in Post 658.

I think I have to explain why I haven't given Levi thought throughout the game. Curiously, I don't really know myself. He has gone under my radar for scrutiny until he posted his reads in post 1365, and I realized that I have no idea why he thought this way. I didn't even know that he thought I was scum. This lead me to ask him about it and to check him out more thoroughly. I found the two points mentioned above.

Add to that the following:

VOTE: mantis I don't know, but I really think I can agree with a mantis lynch since she seems so null to me and could lean either way and we won't know for certain until she flips.

I am aware that you were on the fence with Mantis up to this point, but I do not like this vote. You cannot be both scum because of the way you worded this. I don't see why levi is voting this way. It seems like a very cautious vote. Additional to the fact that He could have voted for his two biggest reads, but he didn't.

Here is my commitment to this stance.

Vote Levi

However, I will be available to Hammer Mantis if the deadline is too close. I am assuming that the deadline is around 7 or 8 pm EST. Or if we want to go for the original deadline, it's in 2 hours.

[guille2015]

i'm town tracker

[guille2015]

@Guille: I'm probably going to vote Mala if this claim is legit. #55 was a huge ass towntell and I've pretty much been ignoring Levi because of it.

Sorryt, but I don't see that from 55. However, i have been ignoring him all throughout the game due to his response to Mala's RVS Break. And that was bad on my part.

[guille2015]

Claim: not tracker.
^
everyone needs to do this or CC in their next post.

I would advise not too. If he is indeed scum claiming, that is to draw out the real tracker and that can be counterclaimed tomorrow with very little loss.

[guille2015]

and the lynch seemed to be definitely heading in my direction

Not anymore. I'd rather lynch somebody else. Levi is my choice.

[guille2015]

What is really blowing my mind is that my 3 scum suspects are all voting each other...

Then you are doing it wrong?

[guille2015]

Any scum would jump off the opportunity of not wasting a night kill to off a power role? He was the first one off, not the second or third or last.

Sorry, but I have to say that that is a null tell. Somebody was going to jump of the wagon, and that somebody would have been first. Yes, I agree that Scum prefer not to lynch the PR since then it allows them for a clean kill unless we kill the relevant scum during the day.

[guille2015]

Upon imminent Lynch it is a tactical advantage for scum to Claim. That said, it is a tactical advantage for town not to counter claim on Day 1. The counterclaim can be resolved day 2.

[guille2015]

Vote Bork

Out of the two, this is the one I am most willing to Lynch.

[guille2015]

Thor665 (L-4): Adam-12
Malakittens (L-2): Thor665, Bork, Hawk
Bork (L-1): Mantisdreamz, Mala, Adam, Guille
Mantis (L-3): Leviathan93, Angel
Levi: (L-5):

Not Voting:

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Thank GOODNESS this isn't a vote count because if it was, I am certain the Mod would [do terrible unmentionable and censored things] to me!

[guille2015]

In a game of 9, I disagree. A counter-claim to lynch scum is infinitely more beneficial. If you wait till D2, you suffer a mis-lynch and a night-kill. Whereas a counter claim will get you a verified scum-lynch while suffering the counter-claimed loss. Not to mention, the power roles are even less useful as they have to guess correctly to get any useful information.

Debatable. I am looking at it from the point of view of gathering more information by PR. But I can understand why this is your position.

[guille2015]

i was going to say that i'll take a look again when i get home from work, but i just saw that Levi hammered.

Try to do as much as you can though. It is helpful regardless.

Bork is lynched as of Levi. If Bork is scum, he should come clean and say so, if he is town he should come and tell us his final words.

I think somebody else should add a sixth vote in case Adam and I botched up the unofficial vote count.

[guille2015]

3 to 4 hours give or take.

[guille2015]

Ok lets take a look at last night. I know Hawk went through it, but I gave it some thought when night came upon so I want to go through that, with influence of what I have read so far today.

Malakittens (L-2): Thor665, Borkjerfkin, ProHawk
Borkjerfkin (L-0): Mantisdreamz, Malakittens, Adam-12, Guile, Leviathan93
Mantis (L-4): ArcAngel9

Mantis is confirmed town because no one counterclaimed, as much as Angel wants to convince us other wise. Mantis you know what your purpose is now right?

I find this a game in which not many people will bus. But it also Depends on the timing. Additionally, Bork was the only scum that could have killed Mantis unimpeded. Lynching Mala was the smart thing to do.

Prohawk: He pushed for Mala over bork. That is suspect. It is outweighed by my town read on him and his acceptance to be included into the suspicious side is town motivated. I think that out of the most suspicious bunch, he is the more likely candidate to being town. On top of that, He pressured the hammer with the implied consequences that Brok was the hammer.

Adam: Is town, I've said it day 1 and I'll say it again. Even If I where mistaken he could have placed his vote on Mala if he was scum. If he was scum he was in the Ideal position to vote for Mala without being suspicious, likely angel would have eventually hammered Mala and taken the blame on day 2. Absolutely Town.

I'm not going to talk about myself, I'll let you guys do that without my influence. It should be fun to watch.

Levi: Tough tough call. He did hammer Scum, but him going after Mala would have been convenient if he was scum. He was pressured by hawk to Hammer, which removes his mental motivation for voting Bork. He's been saying that Mala is innocent for the entire time, so he would have been suspect #1 if he had voted Mala instead of hammering Brok. I am not inclined to lynch him today.

Angel: Shrimp was committing town-slips, and so is she. For some reason she missed the hammer, and went ahead and voted for Mala. At the time Mala was L-2 and Bork L-1 from here perspective. Her vote was intended to Equate the two wagons, very close to deadline. This is enough for me to Lynch her. If it weren't for the Freaking Town-slips! She insists that there are two scum left when this game clearly has only 2 scum. She is also going after mantis, which as scum she would have benefited with accepting her conf. Town status. Looking suspicious like she is now is not a particularly wise thing to do if scum. Scum would know that mantis is town and that there are only 2 scum. Since she replaced in, she might not have read the OP clearly, which would make this understandable for a town player than for a scum player. There is a possibility that she could be faking the scum slip, I don't think there are many people that can pull this off correctly though.

Thor: Hard to read fellow. His slot was the main suspicion on Day 1 and was almost a lynch. He played well his entry into the game and that afforded him this leave. However, he pushed for Mala's lynch and was absent during the critical points in the game. I think that if he were scum, he would have been in the game during the last ours and could have easily manipulated the Lynch to go to Mala. This just means that his VLA was indeed real and thus null. He is somewhat consistent with Bork being town, but never really explains why that is. His only real interaction with bork is 1093. Then goes off and says that

"Though, with Bork, i'll admit he falls into the Levi/Bork/Mantis gorup - of wich I suspect one is scum since I do believe they're the only players who indicated they expected me to flip as town when I was close to lynch. As such, one is probably scum looking for some towncred after the fact."

in post 1426. This is something I can imaging scum saying. Place your scum buddy along with other town so that in the event of him getting lynch, the others would have a link. It also protects them if he(thor) gets lynched. He makes a townslip with his Mantis needs to say who she followed posts. However, this could have also been contrived, like Angel's town slip, except that this one is easier to pull off.

@

Everyone

: If Levi where scum, was it the right decision for him to Lynch Bork rather than voting for Mala?

TL;DR: Mantis and Adam are town. Prohawk is likely town. Levi could be scum but I don't think he is someone to hammer like he did if he were scum, can wait for later. Angel has town-slips all over. I don't understand her scum motivation so I am inclined to think that she is town, wrong but town. Thor is clearly by far the most experienced player in the game. The argument I placed above links him to bork. His "slip" happened in the span of three minutes, which makes me wonder. I've seen good players slip like this, so it is not clear cut.

That said my highest suspicions run in Thor, Angel and Levi. Highest on Thor and interchangeable on the last two.

Vote Thor

[guille2015]

Malakittens (L-2):

Thor665, Borkjerfkin

, ProHawk

Tell me again how Bork was my buddy and how we lived in trembling fear of Mala's scumhunting prowess?

She wasn't an easy lynch. She had several players calling her town. I count 4. If mafia wanted to get her lynched they'd have to team up to do it. However, that is irrelevant. You are perfectly aware that this is a common occurrence and WIFOM. I think scum try to avoid this type of situation, but sometimes it can't be avoided, and sometimes it doesn't matter. Bork suspected Mala before you came in. In the meantime your slot had Mala as town. When you came in you considered mala #2 so your vote for her is acceptable. Bork's vote was pretty much forced when Mantis claimed. Before that he voted Mala to comply with Prohawks L-1 Experiment, and before that, he had made his intentions cleared that he could be convinced to vote for Mala.

Also, why do you think that I would assume that you both (as scum) will vote for Mala for her scum hunting abilities?

[guille2015]

I am impressed, Thor! Your reputation precedes you and with good merit.

I did not vote for Thor Day 1 because he came into the game extremely good. If scum, he has the ability to completely look town and scum hunt, hence why everyone (site-wide) considers him a hell of a good player. I can see why now. The reason that I am voting for Thor today is not because he is scummy. I think there are hints of that here and there and plenty for his previous slot, but the real reason is intent.

Consider Thor's actions as Thor-Town and Thor-Scum.

He has basically been placed into a position of "lynch these" along with 2 others (Who are interchangeable depending on who makes the list) but regardless, Thor is the common denominator. In other words he is the likely lynch. Everybody seems to have a list of these are the 3 players I think are scum. When a game gets into a position where everyone thinks that half or more of the surviving players are town, that is basically a death sentence for scum if they are in the minority. So what is the ideal position for scum. Risk all and make himself part of the Town side. How would scum do this? By switching places with someone in the Town side part and gathering support from the scum side. This is the strategy that I think Thor is doing.

See, he is using me and Adam and convincing you guys to see it his way. I am not going to talk about me, since that can be WIFOM, but Adam? What? He is ConfTown at this point.

Adam's position on Mala was not a strong one, he could have easily accepted the evidence for it, and non would be the wiser. Why sacrifice your Scum partner when you can get through the game unscathed with the tracker dead and the Scum watch-immune making the kills. There is no motivation for him to risk his buddy at that point. Seriously, Prohawk, You are the one that pointed this out the hardest. On top of that, his style has been consistent throughout the game. His posts are 1/4 of the entire game. He is always reluctant to end the game early. So his reluctance to hammer is part of his habit. I see no scum intent on his performance whatsoever.

So now scum has placed Adam in an unsure position were to the likes of some of the players here, he is no longer Town. seriously?

Enough of the rant.
Consider this. Leaving myself out of it. Here is why everyone is town.
Mantis is the tracker.
Adam I explained above.
Prohawk has played a protown performance. His acceptance of belonging as part of the scum side is admirable. He has been proactive and sensible in his reads.
Angel: Several town slips.
Levi: Hammered scum. He also raised suspicion on Code_x when Code was missing in action early.
Thor: Is proactive. looks town.

If we only look at the town qualities for the players, Thor is at a lower level than Prohawk. Basically everyone has something in their favor for not being scum except Thor and maybe Prohawk. I don't see anything in Thor that a scum-Thor cannot pull off.

Here is my Lynch pool. I will only lynch those in these pool for the rest of the game (Thor, Levi, Angel) Unless the watcher sees the actual killer of course.

[guille2015]

I'm here. Patience.

Man, I totally thought Thor was scum. And with Angel dead that completely scratches my plans. Here is the problem. I originally had a Lynch on Thor, Levi and Angel. By reason I should lynch Levi. But there is a reason I voted for Thor over Levi, and its primarily because of his hammer on Bork.

I need to review lots of things for this game though. This game has gotten a ton more complicated.

My first problem is "Why did Angel die?" Did she bread crumbed her power somewhere? Or was her kill just a way to avoid the unknown watcher.

@Mantis

did you track Angel at some point and realized she was the tracker?

So, I'm going to have to get into WIFOM territory now, My head is going to explode so it's a good thing I asked for vacation next week. Let me post this so that what I just said sinks in, while I redact the next post.

[guille2015]

Ok, I'm town. (Whether you believe it or not) but I have to make that clear so that the following makes sense. When I get in this mode of typing I tend to ramble a lot and start typing anything that comes to my mind. Don't be surprised if my ideas change as I type, it's just my ideas evolving. This is my written thought process. I might need medical attention afterwards.

This sentence I write after I have written the following. It's just a heads up that the following led me to loops. My best conclusion is on the last two paragraphs, so, if you don't want to read this rambling post, at the very least read the last two paragraphs. And the following paragraphs two, they are golden. Also, I just read Prohawk's post, which dismantles what I was writing here.

We've got Mantis, Adam, Prohawk and Levi. One of them is scum. Mantis is town. Since the watcher is dead. Mantis is the best kill for tonight. So, the surviving party will consist of whoever we don't lynch of Adam, Prohawk, Guille and Levi.

I'm going to have to check yesterday's work but I need to find out who thought Angel was town. I personally thought that Scum was one of Thor, Levi and Angel. Prohawk thought it was one of Thor, Angel and himself. Correct me if I'm wrong but Adam had Hawk, Thor and Angel in his Lynch list. Levi was gunning at Guille, thor and potentially Hawk, although he was very clear that I was his go to guy, and thor was his option if I am town. This is consistent to his play today. Mantis has a Thor, Prohawk and angel. Since Thor was lynched and Angel died, i am going to ignore their scum reads for the time being, as this analysis is to see what scum thought to make his kill.

(Oh man, Adams ISO is divided in 3 pages, I've never seen that)

The big question is Angel dying. There are two possibilities given that She was in most everyone's hit list. 1) She hinted at her being the watcher, or she bread-crumbed it in some way. If she did, then she was the only option to lynch, and hope for the best. 2) She was a strategic kill. Strategic in that the watcher was not likely to watch her and other which I will go into detail next. #) It's possible that she was killed because her scum reads were quite limited. Basically just saying that Mantis was scum and then going for Thor at the end. This I take into consideration as a strategic kill. In the end there was nothing random of he kill. So I will use that as evidence. I need to ISO her for (1) but I doubt that she did. I will assume (2) and go from there.

Killing angel was a safe kill. Giving that the killer went after Mala Night 1, Mala being a safe kill. Then the motivation for killing Angel would be to stay away from the watcher. Things are improved if the killer is Adam or Hawk. Another option was killing Levi (If he is town). Angel was more in the sight of everyone than Levi. So this is confusing.

If Levi is scum. His best chance of survival was to Lynch one of Mantis, Guille, Hawk or Adam. There was a 1/4 probability of getting caught by the watcher. with a higher chance on Mantis. There was a very small chance that the watcher was targeting Angel. So killing her was a safe bet. Angel was likely a better target to lynch day 3 than himself, so risking the watcher seems like a better move. This assumes that Levi had no knowledge of Angel being the watcher. The Kill is not entirely compatible with Levi being scum. Plausible though.

If Adam is scum. Had he targeted Mantis, Guille or Hawk. His chances of being caught by the watcher were about the same as Levi's. However, Killing Levi or angel was a more strategic kill for him since they are likely not being watched. But why Angel and not Levi? He considered Levi town. He is going after Prohawk now, so I am assuming that if he is scum he expected a final clash between Levi, Him and Mantis/Hawk/me (whoever didn't claim watcher). He'd be stuck in a town-read Lylo. If I did not claim watcher and survived the day, Levi would vote for me for his Win. Had he gone for Levi, then it be Mantis/Angel/Prohawk/me and him. This seems like a better decision because, had Levi not been the watcher (from his POV not knowing), then the watcher would likely claim if it was Hawk or Angel, maybe Guille. The watcher claiming today, was a high probability. Since mantis thought that Adam was town and I was a potential scum, Mantis would have been more likely to vote for Angel/Hawk/guille than she was to vote for Adam. I notice that both situations count for him to give the vote to either Levi or Mantis. In the first scenario, if Hawk was the watcher, then the lynch would auto go to Levi, which will leave Mantis, Adam, and Me to LyLo. hrmmm. I got stuck in a loop. Ok, relax. Think like Adam:

Two options Kill Levi, or Angel. Whose the best option. everyone is opting to Lynch Angel. I am opting to Lynch Angel. If I kill Levi and Angel is the watcher, then I have to go to Prohawk because I can't vote for Guille. Samething otherwise if I kill Angel and Levi claims watcher. Regardless of who I kill, if I kill one of them and the watcher is hawk or Guille, they would likely not claim and I'd have to lynch the other option. I'm in a good position if the watcher is one of Levi and angel, and I end up killing the other.

This is compatible with last nights kill.

If Prohawk is scum. Remarkably, the thought process is pretty much the same as Adam's. It is also an indication that since they are both gunning for each other that they are attempting to keep Levi Alive. Had only one gone after the other, it would have been an indication that he was scum. But that didn't happen. Adam went first, but Hawk came with a definitive case on Adam, meaning that he had it planned ahead of time. Both had me and Levi as scum. And given that Levi will likely vote for me on LyLo, and they assumed that I would vote for Levi on LyLo. their best and only play is to Lynch Adam/Hawk depending on who is scum. It's also natural for the other to do the same as town. In the end it's a risky maneuver, because either one could get lynched. The odd one here is Levi. He knew that He was only at risk from me in this game. He could have killed me and risk getting caught by the Watcher. However, if Levi thought that I might reconsider if adam and Hawk go at eachother's throats, then maybe he could get Me Lynched. However, If he failed getting Guille Lynched, and one of hawk and Adam is lynched, then It's game over for him as he is likely the top lynch that day. So, his best bet was to Kill Guille at night rather than Angel and risk getting caught since success would mean an easier victory. No, He had no knowledge of Angel being the watcher, so Killing me would only be beneficial if angel was not the watcher and I was the watcher. If either Adam or Hawk is the watcher, then Killing Guille would be bad. 50% chance. It's also bad if Angel is the watcher and Levi kills Guille. So in the end, the best choice for Levi to Kill is Angel and hope for the best. Killing Adam and Hawk is out of the question since Guille will try convince the other to vote for Levi or angel (Because he is awesome).

Let me go around another route. Psychologically speaking. If scum did not know that Angel was the Watcher, then the kill was done to be safe from the watcher. Given that Mala was the target on night 1, then this is reaffirming that case, since Mala was the safest place to avoid a watcher. If the person is this careful, and this worried about the watcher, then busing Bork was not an intended outcome. The most compatible with this is Hawk. However, he pushed Levi to hammer Bork, which is counter intuitive. Had Prohawk and bork been both scum buddies. Then, I don't think Hawk would willingly pressure levi to Hammer. Else, he'd hammer himself and appear much better in the outset. Yeah, I think I can assume Prohawk is town.

Ok, I think I'm going to stop the ramblings. At the very least I just have to find one player out of Hawk, Adam and Levi to be town. The above was my entire thought process to get to the conclusion that I am going to pick Hawk as my top Town. Which means that I vow never to vote for him for the duration of this game. Adam is second due to him bringing up Bork's wagon for contention. I will need to confirm how that wagon appeared, but it seems that it was brought up by Mala and Mantis sheeped her. Levi is the only last option left really, and although he did hammer Bork. He was pressured to do so.

[guille2015]

No Guille, she bread-loafed. She basically soft-claimed to Mantis.

Man, I totally wrote all that for nothing. Can you point out the soft claiming, I must have missed it. And can you tell me when did you figure it out?

My ramblings only get's me to one conclusion that prohawk is probably town. Not as certain as I was when I finished the post, because of 1919 and because Prohawk figured it out.

[guille2015]

Ok, so while I was doing some research into where Adam disappeared to during his hiatus, I was disappointed to see that he didn't have any other games that I could cross-reference with activity, what I did find, however was intriguing.

The title is: How to Win as Mafia: Calculated Inaction.

Spoiler:

So you've started a game. You say your role is mafia? Well congratulations, you probably just won. But here's a guide to help you win more easily. Always keep in mind, that playing as mafia is a game of waiting. Wait long enough, and the town will kill itself.

1. Do not call the strongest members of the town scum, rather pick on weaker but more neutral figures. If you pick on people that are too easy, you will eventually run out of valid scumreads, and if you only pick on the strongest members of the town, it will likely turn on you. Attack the people that can't defend themselves. Newbies are a good choice.
   
   
   
   Adam's Scum Claims:
   
   Shrimp (#107)
   Code, Guille, Mantis (#173) ((Post #230 removes Mantis from Scum))
   Mollie (#309)
   Bork (#512)
   Mala (#1249)
   
   Adam's main scum pushes D1 were Shrimp, Guille, and Mollie. Bork was a quick push with little scum-hunting, and Mala wasn't really a push. I will let you all decide who were the strongest and weakest contenders, but Shrimp was new, Guille wasn't a heavy poster (neutral) and Mollie was flailing.
   
   
   
   
2. Early on, post a lot, and frequently. Most people will subconsciously treat active players as town. Almost nobody will suspect you for this on its own.
   
   
   

   D1

   - 21 Days
   Posts D1 - 0-461 - 461 Posts
   

   Posts/Day1 - 21 posts/day

   
   

   D2

   - 6 Days
   Posts D2 - 461-485 - 25 Posts
   

   Posts/Day2 - 4 posts/day

   
   
   Because we didn't have nearly the same amount of time D2 as D1, I wanted to make a post/day comparison. I have never seen anyone post as much as Adam. He definately doesn't have the same vigor he did D1.
   
   
   
   
3. Call out lurkers. They are easy to lynch, but don't try to lynch them until later in the game. Their wagon will provide good escape later if you need it. Be sure to make this a long-term campaign. If you notice the flow go against your allies or your scum-calls begin to push the lurkers.
   
   
   
   
   First major post of calling out lurkers is #173, with small jabs at them later on.
   
   
   
   
   
4. Outline rough suspicion of your dumbest partner. Do not push their wagon, just list them as neutral-leaning-scum or something to that effect. Meanwhile, defend your other partner from significant attacks. This will separate your team in the minds of the town.
   
   
   
   Outlined Rough Suspicion and proceeded to pressure others. His vote for Bork Starts in Post #511, and is maintained until his next vote for Mollie in #798. His pressuring of Bork stops in Post #552, he didn't push the wagon, just let the vote sit.
   
   He didn't have another partner, so it doesn't apply.
   
   
   
   
5. Defend the strongest players of the town. Pick one in particular to defend excessively. If you die, this will tie you to them and allow your team to lynch them quickly. As a note, generally, if you build a meta for defending people you will do well in all your games.
   
   
   
   Adam made more than one post defending me, I would even say excessively. I am sure you remember, but if you don't I would be happy to quote them for you.
   
   
   
   
6. For lynch on the first day, push the second or third most popular lynch. Do not try to make your wagon fail, but hope that it does. After that, continue to push reads that are less likely to be lynched. If one of your reads becomes a major lynch though, lynch them. Do not back down.
   
   
   
   Adam's vote on Bork strikes me as a strong indicator of this play. Bork was the second most popular lynch.
   
   
   
   
7. If you notice someone acting scummy, and no one else has yet picked up on it, take the opportunity. If you lynch an unexpected person the next day reverts to earlier lynch prospects much of the time. Essentially the town loses a day.
   
   
   
   Adam's push on Angel, despite saying that he believed Shrimps town-slip fits nicely into this category.
   
   
   
   
8. Taper off your posting as you go. Do not suddenly disappear, just gradually reduce your rate of posting. Try to keep large but infrequent posts at first, but later shorter posts will do. You want to appear like you are losing interest in the game. You also want to have an excuse for dodging the nightkills. Living too long being too town will be problematic.
   
   
   
   Notice the posting frequency at the start of the game to now.
   
   
   
   
9. Attack players that do not know how to defend themselves properly. Start with a case that is factual, but weak. When the player overreacts and digs themselves deeper and deeper, you will have a good wagon to sit on. If it sees lynch, you have lynched someone that everyone agrees deserved it, and if it doesn't you have a plausible distraction from the main lynches.
   
   
   
   Mollie wasn't on Adam's push-agenda until he saw how much she was able to dig herself deeper and deeper.
   
   
   
   
10. Don't underestimate the power of subtle praise. "That's a great point" and "I didn't notice that" or even "I'm sheeping X, who is obv-town" helps building false confidence in townies. This will make the townie think you are town, and if they turn out to be wrong they get the blame and their confidence is shaken. It is generally good to leave the responsibility for the town's lynches on the town.
    
    
    
    Adam was full of praise for me D1. My Favorite - Lifetime Subscription
    
    
    
    
11. The town tends to believe that it ought to win. They are wrong, but you can take advantage of this. If someone has been on many of the major wagons, you have just found a free lynch target. Similarly, if there is someone that seems to be causing the town not to succeed, they are a good target. Generally, the mafia should be encouraging the idea that the town is being conned by their leaders.
    
    
    Post #1356 - "I think we are being played"
    

Notes are in green, I edited out the topics that weren't relevant to Adam's play. Feel free to read the whole post if you wish.

As I said before, I have it on good authority that he as used this post as research. The evidence in this game is more than coincidence that he is putting the advice to use. So did he use this research as scum or to find scum? The fact that he has incorporated 11 of the suggestions into his play here leads me to believe that he used it as scum in order to play an amazing scum-game.

This is interesting, but I am worried. I'll let Adam respond first, before I comment on this.

[guille2015]

There is no way Mantis survives, as she is confirmed town

I actually expected her to survive. She was the prime target for the watcher. I wouldn't expect Angel to have watched her both nights.

[guille2015]

Survives in the future tense Guille, not past tense. I don't really think Angel had much clue as to how important her role actually was.

Yeah, true that. I figured the same!

[guille2015]

I will be VLA until January 10th. I will try to be up to date throughout my vacation as I will be able to check the internet. It really depends on whether my wife is annoyed by it or not.

[guille2015]

Let's not vote yet. I want to go through Adams ISO. I think he is at L-1 and I have limited access so it will take a bit.

In the mean time. Hawk, did you just now realize that scum was in the busser category?

[guille2015]

My problem here is that I see too many pro-town things in both Adam and hawk. Not enough in Levi.

I need Adam and Hawk to post why Levi is town that does not include "Adam/Hawk is scum".

@Mantis: the reason I want to wait is because I am in my vacation. Typing on the phone is uncomfortable. And I don't think I can give this game the required 100%.

Vote Count

ProHawk (L-2): Adam-12

Adam-12 (L-1): ProHawk, Leviathan93

Not Voting: - Mantisdreamz, Guile

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Day Three has begun. Deadline is Thursday, Jan 17th (I think?) at 3:00 PM EST

[guille2015]

My problem here is that I see too many pro-town things in both Adam and hawk. Not enough in Levi.

I need Adam and Hawk to post why Levi is town that does not include "Adam/Hawk is scum".

@Mantis: the reason I want to wait is because I am in my vacation. Typing on the phone is uncomfortable. And I don't think I can give this game the required 100%.

would you be mad if i voted Adam?

Not mad. Annoyed. I'd rather find scum with a contingency plan agreed with 4 town players then to go to LYlo in the current position we are. Were actually, I think I am more comfortable with how things are going.

Adam. I want your case on Levi. I get that you are saying that scum did not bus, I am in agreement with that, but not as sure as you are though. The problem is that Levi did not really bus. Technically he was forced to vote by hawk. I wonder why hawk didn't vote himself though. Did he think that mala was L-1 and espected Levi to vote for mala. I think that's not the case.

I'm having a hard time voting for either Adam or hawk because of that.

[guille2015]

It seems that I had used the wrong calendar to set my VLA, I am VLA till the 7th not the 10th. Still VLA so, just a quicky note. I am taking a stance on hawk being town. I consider Adam more town than Levi, so I would prefer a lynch Levi.

[guille2015]

Guille do not vote under any circumstances.

I'm not that desperate.

I am back from VLA. Man, this is not a scenario I was looking forward too. I'm going to have to do some research on this game.

[guille2015]

Don't worry I am not scum.

Just checking who is more likely scum between the two of you. I think I have an idea. But Keep talking, It helps.

[guille2015]

Really, Maj? You actually read day 1? That's a pain in the ass that day was.

[guille2015]

Because after 14 minutes you realized it looked bad; the point is you placed the vote. You were clearly concerned about Guille voting for me rather than yourself where town would be concerned over Guille possibly quick hammering; this is a scum slip because it presumes that Guille is town. All game long you have been quick hammering or telling others to which fits the profile of someone who is desperate to obtain a quick lynch and end the day and in this case it was end the game.

Actually, this is an argument in favor of Prohawk being town. I find it that scum like to keep their votes for last unless they can avoid it. If I were scum, I would have ninja'd that 14 minute window.

When he decided I was town, He did not know which way I was going to vote. (Even though I did say I was placing him in my no vote pile yesterday.) If he were town, He'd be risking me voting for him instead if I were to find something to favor that.

Hmmmm.

I'm going to place my vote tomorrow. Primarily to annoy Maj.

Not really, Maj, Just that I need to sleep on it.

[guille2015]

Well, we did manage to get a record breaking Day 1.

[guille2015]

Ok, I thought it over. Here is my rational.

Each one has something in their favor with a counter.
- Adam voted Bork over Mala and likely moved the direction of the wagon towards a Bork Lynch. Counter: He kept saying that Mala was town and thus placing a vote on her would have caused him to get voted day 2 as scum.
- Hawk pressured Levi to hammer Bork. Had he waited, there would have been a chance that the lynch not go through and nobody would have blamed him for it. Counter: Levi had already voiced his intent to vote for Bork.

From the above, my best conclusion is that Hawk is likely not the last scum as opposed to Adam.

So, Without further ado:

Vote ADAM

No regrets.

[guille2015]

Oh, and I was the Last SCUM!!

Trololol

[guille2015]

[guille2015]

Am not! But I guess I made the right choice!

[guille2015]

Ha, I new Mala was town. Totally. But I didn't even think she was a Wacther, why would mafia think that though. Also, did mafia have day talk?

[guille2015]

Record wrap up, Records
This game placed 1st place as the longest day by post on a Mini, with 1,674 posts. Beating the previous 1st placer by 377 posts.

It also ranked 4th in Longest Mini Game by posts with 2,267 posts shy of 3rd place by 11 posts.

[guille2015]

Next time also just lynch who Thor says to lynch.

Actually, that helped when Levi's lynch flipped town.

[guille2015]

Thor played an Awesome game. He managed to convince me not to Lynch him day 1. That led me to POE on Bork. I was in favor of lynching him day 2 because everyone else had a good reason not to be lynch. I did consider his arguments after he flip town, since then I could actually trust him. I am think that Thor would have played the exact same game had he been Scum.

Mollie. I'm sorry you found this game frustrating. I am one that isn't bothered by insults or the like, but I dislike players who use insults to argue in this game. You were closing in on that meta, but now I understand why. I also didn't like Shrimp going on about you two cheating, so hence I chastised him in the game. Had I not think he was town, I'd be voting for him.

Adam played a very good game. I want to hear from him. I basically never seen anyone post as much as he has and much less be scum.

Maj, Great game buddy. Your comments and antics where top notch. I would have loved to play your Music game, but its a theme I am not interested in. If you are short of a player hit me up though. I might spectate though.

Good Game from Hawk. Basically had you as town from day 1. Noticed I even said you were town when you sided on the Mala wagon. Had you not forced Levi to hammer, it would have been a different story. That was the deciding point for me.

[guille2015]

Damn you Maj, Now you got the Banana phone song in my head.

[guille2015]

I've got a new sig!

[guille2015]

Guille, why did you think Adam was scum? Was it just from POE?

I am better at finding town then finding Scum. And this was the case. I made my decision on Day 3. But still had my doubt's. The kicker for me was when you forced Levi to hammer. You had a genuine sense of urgency while Adam did not. You also were consistent in your reads and persistent when going after them. And when the evidence pointed one way, you genuinely followed it. So, it was mostly POE. I added a bit of Thor. And considered 2208.

[guille2015]

The day was so long, that I forgot half of the things that happened early.

Since I don't really post on the evenings and weekends, that's were most of your posts happened. It was really hard for me to catch up, so sorry for my sub-par game early on.

[guille2015]

I updated the Records page.