Open 543: Pick Your Poison (Game Over!)

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

YAY FALCON HIHIHI!

(did you see me tell you to replace in? Please be town!)

YES. That's what made me want to replace in. And I am town as fuck and easily readable. Hopefully, I fulfill the "competence" area as well.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I read the game but I'm going to re-read a few ISO's before I post my reads.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

TOWN

1) Tammy

– Tammy is my strongest townread and her posts upon replacing in felt spontaneous and townish. I also really like her humor, ease and self-confidence which are features of her towngame much more than her scumgame. The way she initially felt out Khan while hesitating to scumread him on the off-chance of working with him, and then built up the suspicion was also incredibly genuine. Most of all though, it was the way that she reacted to KK’s suspicion and then got really excited at the prospect of catching scum and excitedly saying she’ll post a case, that’s when she passed the point of being able to fake her performance as scum. I’ve played with Tammy in a fair number of games and I’m quite certain she can’t fake the total excitement and the sheer enthusiasm in her tone when scum especially in the way 529 was written. I am more sure that Tammy is town here than I’ve ever been in any game I’ve played with her before.

2) Borophil

– I strongly dislike that Borophil got even a single vote on him let alone several because he was literally the most obvtown player in the game before Tammy’s replace-in. His responses to KK in 251, and 252 felt so much like a townie who felt that scum are pushing on them for bad reasons. His 198 was a pretty decent catchup attempt and following along, he made quite a lot of good points or at least those I can see very likely coming from town. I can follow his thought process in 263 very well and the depth of his thinking behind simple statements like the one from Yiley were both persuasive as well as showed a genuine desire to solve the game. I very much like his analysis of the POD bandwagon in 266, and 267 and his theories and thoughts about who the scum are and the re-adjustments of his reads felt very natural. But the biggest thing is that the mildly frustrated tone with which he goes about scumhunting feels incredibly raw and real and strikes me at a gut level and I just don’t think the way he did it is fake-able as scum.

3) Yiley

– Despite the low content, Yiley’s posts just feels town. I completely understand Borophil’s take on Yiley’s 96 as strengthening Emerald’s position. However, what I really found town was the way he went against the grain when GoodMorning posted her concern in the previous post (95) which I think is less common coming from a newer player like Yiley. Regardless of Emerald, I found his “

I'm thinking about something need to do some research. If my hunch pays off I'll switch votes

” to be much more likely to come from town and I felt that he genuinely had some hunches that he wanted to verify to see where they lead. I do want this explained though as I’m not sure what the follow-up was. His vote on POD is understandable and I can follow his thought process there in 221, and 226. His questioning in 380 genuinely felt like he was reading closely through Emerald’s posts and scumhunting him and I like the attention to detail. Overall, I feel fairly confident that Yiley is town.

4) Zekrom25

– I found RationalMadman’s posts to be mildly town. The initial careless way in which he went about announcing town and scum reads and his out-of-the-box theories didn’t feel contrived at all. However, it was MisakaMikoto who really saved that slot. The way he continually tries to get inside the head of other players feels extremely townish. Examples include his persistent questioning of Emerald in 166, 168, and 172 and his insistence in getting his questions while still seeing the opposite side (“I do see your point”) and his conclusion in 188 about Emerald felt like he was truly trying to understand mindsets as opposed to just push a case, or make the opposition look scummy. Zekrom’s posts are null and new-ish but I am pretty sure he is town based on his predecessor’s posts.

5) PowerOfDeath

– I dislike the quick wagon on POD and I feel that there are a lot of things that point to him being town. His short meta-case on ika in 124 backed up by references feels like genuine scumhunting and I like that he focused on trying to read players that he is familiar with and using his past experience in order to scumhunt and develop reads. His 185 draws unnecessary attention to himself if scum but I can see it from a new-ish town player that doesn’t have any reads yet. I felt that his sequence of 303, 304 and 305 felt mildly townish and the non-confirmity and rebellious nature of “

Lol people are stupid. People need to learn how to play. I am purposely not playing like other people. If you expect me to play like others, lynch me then

” feels like genuine frustration when combined with his next two posts. The jump to giving reads upon being wagoned is a very town thought process especially for a newer player and especially when combined with a “lynch me” statement which feels like he gave up on surviving but wants his reads heard.

6) Maxous

– I found JJCoolpants’s posts to be aggressive and confident considering his experience on the site. I like his push on Rational to explain his reads and the dismissal of Rational as anti-town and not scum in his 120. The confidence in his Anorway push in 154 also feels very town and something that I find comes far less often from new scum players. His smooth flow of suspicion from Anorway to Borophil after Anorway makes a few analytical posts and pushes on a scumread also make a lot of sense and I think the dynamic change of reads in this case feels very town. As for Maxous, I find him mildly townish. I can see where he is coming from with a lot of his reads although I disagree with the Kublai Khan one. However, I can see why he would call it town v town and find LeMidget’s jump to be scummy. I also like his concern in 539 about a possible TvT fight. While I don’t think Maxous did anything he would be incapable of faking, his posts are decent and his predecessor felt very natural and townish in his posting.

7) YuniChicako

– I found Yuni’s gambit in 294 hilarious but what I felt was townish was her immediate reaction in 316 where she lamented that not many people were there to react to it. I don’t think a BS list is impossible for scum to fake (although less likely) but the entire

timing

of it and the later reaction felt super town because she did it when she had no other reads and used this gambit as a way to kick-start her reads development and it served a very town purpose. This ties into Maxous’s point about Yuni not forcing reads and I felt that she took her time to develop them in whatever way she feels appropriate. I disagree with the BoroPhil vote since he didn’t do much other than say that he liked it and engaged her on her (fake) reads, but the way she came out with her suspicion has a “I caught scum!” feel to it that felt incredibly genuine.

UNSURE

I want to go over these with Tammy (and anyone else if they are willing) to refine my reads. I think I have the game nearly solved through KK, and iamausername scumreads and am pretty confident in my town reads.

10) Emeraldemon

– Emerald reads null-town to me and I haven’t really found much indicating either way. He does make a decent observation in 159. 170, and 171 were pretty nice too. Looking through his scum game, his posts as scum are full of content and analysis and he is actually a very good scum player. He is one of the people I want to meta-dive extensively. Tammy, I get why you'd think he is town but I'd be much more comfortable if you still say he is town after going over one of his scumgames: Shadow's Newbie 1451.

8) Belisaurius

- I don't have much of a read either way. I didn't really get the theory behind the Tammy and GM dichotomy so I'll have to read that a lot more closely. Tammy, I'd like to hear more of your thoughts on Belisaurius meta and I'll probably spend some time going over it during later days.

9) GoodMorning

- I think GoodMorning's effort posts are decent but it is not something she can't fake when she is scum. I disagree with her early push on Boro and her interpretation of JJ and iamausername is 314 is pretty much the opposite of how I am seeing this game. In her 315, she reads Boro and Zekrom as scum both of whom I am reading as town. I don't know if this is a case of simple disagreement on reads. GM's meta is in her wiki so that's probably where I am going to start. Tammy, what are your thoughts so far?

SCUM

11) iamausername

- I think imausername is probably scum. His opening case against POD in 196 ignores a lot of the things that make POD really town including the ika meta-case. POD having nothing to say is null at worst, and probably town at best. Scum would be much more likely to give perfunctory reads or lurk in that situation rather than make a scene about how they have nothing to say. Saying that he is going to blend in really felt null and a quick glance at one of POD’s offsite town games show his activity being fairly low towards the beginning of the day anyways and it didn’t mean much to me affiliation-wise. Point 3 in the case is a rather uncharitable stretch. Why is it so unlikely that POD who played on a site with quick days and nights would comment on the really long days at ms.net? It seems like an innocuous comment on the length of the days and the way iamausername talks about this to mean “

hey guys i'm totally not eager to get to night so me and my scumbuddies can kill someone, honest

" is a massive, massive stretch which feels like he is trying to take advantage of POD’s incompetence. The rest of his ISO consists of trying to get people to vote POD and arguing with Kublai over why POD is a better choice than Borophil in 344 which is also meh reasoning and another stretchy interpretation of POD’s naked reads list.

12) Kublai Khan

– Kublai Khan is my strongest scumread for several reasons. Firstly, I disliked his push on Borophil’s reads list being out of order as I don’t find the order of a reads list alignment indicative at all and it was a fairly irrelevant point. I wouldn’t have minded if he had just asked for clarification but his vote and subsequent push on Borophil in 250 for “hostility” feels strongly like he is taking advantage of a frustrated town reaction. Being dismissive, mocking, and hostile is hardly any more likely to come from scum than frustrated town and I felt in this case that Borophil had a very good reason to be dismissive because he was being grilled on something so irrelevant. I also heavily disliked the semantic push based on Borophil saying “arbitrary and unlikable” and changing it to “incredibly rubbish” because I see it as a perfectly plausible townie thought process and it feels like Kublai is trying to nail down points against Borophil that seem scummy on the surface but really aren’t. Secondly, and more importantly, his reaction to Tammy made me

massively

confident that he was scum. I remembered reading an old game a while ago where Kublai was scum and tried to frustrate Tammy into having her cases discredited. These two posts give an amazing insight into Kublai’s posting as scum.

I want everyone to read those two posts

even if they don’t read the whole game especially Maxous and others and you’ll understand why KK’s play here is so scummy. The way he interrogated Tammy starting in 445 and continuing on to the next several posts was incredibly scummy because it was a subtle attempt to get her frustrated. I also felt that the way he worded it “

Hey, more passive aggressive fighting/not fighting lynch stopping/not stopping

” in 497 was designed to enrage more than engage possibly to repeat his previous performance. His entire line of questioning while passable on the surface, the tone of it just set my scumdar off really hard and made me massively certain that he is scum here. Very, very happy with lynching Kublai Khan today.

VOTE: Kublai Khan

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

UNVOTE:
It wasn't a bad gambit although that would require me to re-evaluate a few reads.

@ Yiley, can you answer my question about what 161 was about.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Updated reads list:
Town (S -> W): Kublai Khan, Tammy, Borophil, Yiley, Zekrom, POD, <gap> Maxous, Yuni
Null: Emerald, GM, Beli
Scum: Iamausername

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Sounds good.

VOTE: Iamausername

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Strongest to weakest. I realized after making the list that Maxous was pushing Iam. Assuming I am right about Iam being scum, Maxous will be a stronger townread.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

It looks like you feel similarly about me as I do about you. Your posts are fairly good but that doesn't seem to be a towntell for you either.

LeMidget is someone I wanted to get back to. I remember thinking that the way he approached KK was unlikely to come from scumbuddies but I was massively sure KK was scum at that time so I ignored a few things that made me think "this player is prob-scum if KK is town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Maxous, the thing is Emerald does meta as scum too which is part of the reason I am wary that people are writing him off as town too easily. A few examples:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p5469522
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p5503065

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, I was following the game and I had already read it before I replaced in.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, I want to hear what it was that KK saw confirming Belisaurius as town. I have a stronger townread on Maxous after re-reading his first post where his reads mirror mine. Yuni is the only one of my townreads that is a little shaky but I'll wait to see what she comes up with after her return. That leaves Emerald, GM, Beli, and Iam as the leftovers. I get what you are saying about KK-Iam looking like scumbuddies and that thought crossed my mind a few times actually but turned out to be a red herring.

Are there any of my townreads you disagree with?

@ Borophil, what are your updated thoughts and reads right now?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Depends on the game and the skill of the players. If a lot of the players are very skilled as scum, it is a little harder for me to get confident towntells out of them because I'd have to keep accounting for how much they can fake it. With a game full of newish players or people that replaced newish players, there are a lot of things I can't see newbies faking so the reads come easier.

About the game solving, I was

so

sure KK was scum because of the way he was playing and I thought Iamausername was both individually scummy and also had a pretty decent shot at being KK's buddy so that would have been two out of three scum. Combined with a bunch of confident townreads, I figured if we lynched KK and Iam and analyzed associative tells with the remaining 3, we'd have the game in the bag. Realizing that KK was gambiting threw a wrench in that plan. I still have my scumpool narrowed down but I am not sure if anyone fits as scum with anyone else yet.

Regarding your reads, I see where you are coming from about defending you but I feel it isn't unlikely for scum to defend townies for the towncred. Beli is a skilled enough scum player that I wouldn't put it past him to make a remark about how a townie is playing to their town meta. I wouldn't out it past Iam to do it either. Can you summarize or link me to why you found MisakaMikoto scummy? I actually quite liked his posts.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't like emeraldemon's vote on the wagon. I quite like Maxous's and Tammy's. Zekrom's was mek but I think he is town anyways.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Who would you rather lynch, Yiley?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

You said you agreed with my post for the most part where I called Zek and Pod town. Can you elaborate on which other reads you disagree with and give your reasoning for them?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

UNVOTE:

That actually makes sense. I dislike Emerald's vote and GM's posturing against the wagon. I'm really busy today and I have a midterm this evening but I'll check in whenever I can sneak in a few minutes.

Borophil, I see your points on Misaka although the list just seems like he is putting out his to suspects. I am happy to wagon GM or Emerald. You have GM as a scumread so that seems like a good way to go. I'd like to hear where Tammy wants to go as well.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

But if I am wrong about one player, I feel it is most likely Misaka/Zekrom slot or Yuni. Whenver I interact with Yiley, he just feels town and the others are really town as well.

Spoiler: Reads

Town (S -> W): Kublai Khan, Tammy, Borophil, Yiley, POD, Iamausername, Maxous, Zekrom, Yuni
Null: Beli
Scum (S -> W): Emerald, GM

VOTE: GoodMorning

Pedit: POD is town as fuck.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

It makes sense precisely because of what you quoted right after. "

I think he is town but F-16 makes a good case and I can now see him as scum

" feels weird because you didn't really engage on any of the points.

The other reason was GM. I didn't think GM and Iam were partnered together and her soft-defense with a "don't like Iam wagon" and leaving felt like a move at towncred. I was getting paranoid enough that Iam was town that I was constantly thinking of hopping off the wagon. His claim just sealed the deal.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Emerald, what was it about GoodMorning that you didn't like lately?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I need to rush in a bit since I have a midterm but POD has a miniscule chance of flipping scum. His reaction after Tammy turned the wagon onto KK is another example in addition to the ones I gave in my reads list. I just can't see him being scum and am nearly certain he will be a mislynch. GM has a much better chance of flipping scum. If not GM, then Emerald. I'd happily lynch Emerald in a heartbeat, he is individually the scummiest player here. But lets' not just vote POD because he is not doing shit. If this continues, hopefully we get a competent replacement somewhere down the line but this guy is so fucking town it hurts. He's not being pro-active, he is not being helpful, but let's go with a lynch that at least has SOME chance of flipping scum than POD.

As for his vote, what are you expecting really? He hasn't logged on so he hasn't voted his counterwagon. Neither has GM.

I really, really don't think POD is actually going to flip scum, and let's be honest none of you do. GM flipping scum would be awesome though. And I am partly going off of Tammy's gut as well because she is really good at sniffing out scum, and I like the fact that we agree on GM and synced our thought process there. The other is POE. There are so many townish players/claims that I think there is a really good chance of GM flipping scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I would also like to mention that my meta read on Ika is scummy right now.

Ika tend to lurk as scum. Ika is usually one of the top posters when he is town.

Here is an example of a game Ika was in:

http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthrea ... the-Amazon

Ika was the town doctor in that game. You can see he post very often. At the moment he is a banned user in that site. He was also modkilled in that game for threatening to suicide just because no one listened to his fos. His fos turned out to be town. Day 1 in that forum are usually a lot more trolly than here.

My point is: Ika tend to post a lot more often if he was town.

This is fairly solid point POD makes against Ika in that many newish scum tend to lurk. This is POD's preliminary effort at scumhunting. It shows his watchfulness and attempts to sort a player that he thinks he can sort easily. It would be far easier for him to just townread ika to buddy him or not antagonize him but the genuine attempt to compare his posting with his usual towngame because something feels off is a very town thought process for POD.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

As much as I hate defending him, he's being anti-town, not scummy

I definitely agree. I played with so many anti-towny players. They irks me, but I still believe they are town.

The desire to go above attacking players that are annoying is another thing very unlikely to come from newbie scum. This is a rather minor point but I like that he didn't jump onto RationalMadman.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, I read everything, nothing to say here. See you guys tomorrow.

Of course my #36 is genuine. Maybe I am trolling you guys, maybe I am too good of a scum. Maybe I am out wifoming all of you ^.^

WIFOM.

VOTE: LeMidget

I will simply sheep the majority, increasing more pressure to potential scums. I know one thing, if scums see that they are being voted for no reasons, they tend to get really pissed off and blame the train very random and unfair.

He provides reasons that he believes are solid and justifies his actions as pro-town. I know sheeping the majority isn't pro-town but the important thing to consider is WHY POD is sheeping. He blatantly told us in the beginning that he would sheep. Now he claims that sheeping will help the town. He is doing what he believes will help the town and justifying his reasons for doing so. Iam has missed this point preferring to argue that his pre-emptive announcement that he is sheeping is scummy. But his entire thought process is internally consistent with how a townie would approach this game.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Sorry for being afk, I had to study for midterms and stuff.

Think about this, why would I want to try to attract attention? What allignment would I be if I wanted to attract attention?
What if I decided to make 215 scummy on purpose and it attracted almost everyone's attention? I may be new to this site, but I am not that stupid if I was scum.

Here he scumhunts off of his wagon. He performs an attention-getting move and pushes people to justify why they believe it is scummy. He wants to know whether people are jumping onto his wagon are scum or have legitimate reasons that they can back up. He WANTS scum to wagon him so he can nail them. This shows genuine scumhunting effort.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

These 3 posts are incredibly townish. He is upset that people are not listening to his reads:

Lol people are stupid. People need to learn how to play. I am purposely not playing like other people. If you expect me to play like others, lynch me then. It will only hurt you guys even more.

So he wants to give them:

I will state my reads incase even more stupid people joined and I get lynched.

Let me remind you all that this is only Day 1.

I have my own reasons to act like this.

emeraldemon - scum
BoroPhil - town
Acidic_TACO - town
JJcoolPants- town
Kublai Khan - scum
goodmorning - town
iamusername scum
anorway - town
Yiley - town
LeMidget - town
Zekrom25 - idk
YuniChikako - scum

The bolded is the first hint that he is playing somewhat scummy on purpose because he wanted to trap scum. This wasn't something he pulled out of his ass later.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What are exactly 'ISO'?
I am unfamiliar with this term.

Anyway, LOT has happened since I was gone. I saw that Tammy overturned the train to KK. <3

KK got what he deserved

Scumm, especially newish scum would be WAY too self-conscious to speak to another player like that. This is genuine townie relief and happiness that Tammy pushed his scumreads and the wagon is now on his biggest scumread as opposed to him which is what he wanted all along.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Its like 2 in the morning, I am too exhausted to post, tbh the only reason why I'm posting is to avoid prod. However I'll say this.

I'll tell you one thing. Based on my experiences, Scumhunting as Town, and Scumhunting as Scum are two very different things.

As a town, you have to analyze all other players. You have to determine who is town and who is scum. You are truly scumhunting. You can typically tell if a player is being scummy, or just scum.

As a Scum, you already know who is scum, and you know who is town. You have to blend in and look town. You have to just point out flaws in your buddies, and take advantage of weaker town players. You best chance is to cause a mislynch on scummy town.

As a town myself, I planted a huge target on myself for a purpose. It was more for like a trap to scum players. Scum see that I "slipped" or "playing scummy", they would try to take an advantage and discredit me on a lot of things. While true town have to analyze me and give a read on me. Town typically can read me better than scum can. I can see very clearly that few scums sprung this trap. *looking at KK*

The bolded is his thought process for acting the way he did and a perfectly pro-town explanation for how he scumhunts.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Throughout all his posts, POD comes across as awkward, newish and is somewhat difficult to fit into the meta at mafiascum but through it all, his scumhunting efforts are genuine and consistent, his emotions are raw and real, his frustration upon being wagoned and providing a readslist and his later relief at his reads being taken seriously all add up to POD being insanely, incredibly town.

Kublai Khan, Maxous, work with me here. I literally can't see this slot flipping scum and it would be a shame to let this lynch go through.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, I gotta head out but I'll be back in ~2 hours give or take. Let's work together to secure an optimal lynch.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, that's true. It just made a lot of sense that GM showed up and argued meekly against the POD wagon and said nothing else. It seemed like a ploy at towncred and they didn't make sense as scum together. Regardless, I think it'll be apparent soon if Iam is scum anyways.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

There's just an hour and 45 minutes left. Anyone who's online, care to share your thoughts?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

That's right.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I'd really rather not lynch POD. Switch over to GM, Yiley. What did you think of my latest posts regarding POD?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, so we have a vig. This makes things pretty simple with regard to Iamausername's claim. If he is town, there will be no other PR's in the game besides the vig, IC, and him. If he is scum, there is likely a tracker or a Jailkeeper. I propose that if there is a tracker or a JK, to counterclaim Iam now so we know he is scum and can nail down a second scum lynch. Thoughts about this proposal? Obviously, if you are the vig, do not claim. If no tracker or JK counterclaims Iam, we can move on assuming that he is town. Also, I think Iam claiming his results would be helpful in narrowing down POE. I don't see much of a benefit in not doing it considering scum pretty much have to kill KK and Iam assuming he is town anyways.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Well, that is surprising. I don't know why he would claim a role that has already been given to a townie. I think he probably wanted a counterclaim as opposed to another day to live. Let's wait a couple of days before we lynch Iam. I am too impatient to want to wait two weeks till deadline but I want to post some quick analysis.

More importantly, I think we should as a majority, direct the vig since it is somewhat obvious they are bad. I assume they killed Borophil since Tammy was really obvtown. But Borophil was very, very town as well and the vigkill was bad considering Boro was the first vote on the wagon and it was our discussion that kick-started the wagon. I think the vig will probably make another poor decision for the other vig-shot.

I am happy with the emerald investigation though. He was one of the few people that I was really worried about but I couldn't entirely see him being scum with GM.

Spoiler: Updated Reads

Confirmed town: Kublai Khan/POD/Emerald

Others: Yiley, Zekrom, Yuni, Maxous, Beli (These are the slots I need to spend time re-evaluating)

Confirmed scum: Iam

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Well, it is actually kinda obvious who the vig is and I'd be surprised if scum didn't pick up on it and kill them tonight and leave us at an even number of players.

Who do you think is the final scum?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

KK, I am assuming Iamausername flips scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yiley - The late on GM in addition to the other reasons I townread him early in the game.
Zekrom - The GM hammer in addition to my Misaka-Mikoto townread.
Yuni - I provided reasons why town.
Maxous - His early attack on Iam and scumread on GM. Maxous, I want you to elaborate on what went on in your head the entire time when you wondered which of GM/POD will give you more information, what information you were expecting, and why you voted POD over GM who you seemed to have a bigger scumread on. I'd like to see that thought process.
Beli - POE leads here. That and the POD vote as a counterwagon to GoodMorning.

I think Beli is the last scum. KK, you pointed out the reasons why he is town but I don't understand the logic there, I'll post in a bit.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

This is why I've got a solid town-read on Belisarius. Scum chose the town power roles, so they knew of the existence of an innocent child. So if Belisarius was scum, he'd know that he was purposefully stating a bad policy. He doesn't seem the reckless scum type. Plus reaction was very town so he shouldn't be lynched any time soon.

Why is it a bad policy? All he said was don't claim at L-2 which read null to me. His reaction was paranoia which while commonly considered to be town, is perfectly in line with what Beli would be able to fake. Scum players also question townreads on them and I really don't see it as conclusive for even a moderately skilled scum player. Maybe if a newbie questioned a townread on them, I'd say they are town probably.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

The only way the last Mafia can win is that he make it all the way to 3 way lylo with one clear and cause a third mislynch in a row. This isn't auto win for town, but it put us in a very good position.

Yeah, this is what I was thinking. It would be nice to vig the last scum tonight though.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Belisarius, how did you come to know of this game? Did you look at the replacement queue or did anyone invite you to replace in?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, never mind. I am looking over GM's possible interactions with other slots. If you are town, help me through them. Offering your vig yourself doesn't help and it would be much better if we wrap the game up tonight. You've played with GM before. You've been scum with before. What insights can you give about her play?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

So, who is your best guess for scum, Beli, and why?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I skimmed over GM's meta overnight to see how she treats her scumbuddies and she usually doesn't bus, sometimes preferring to push counterwagons.

GM Scum Meta overview

1) In Open 493: Jungle Republic, her buddy Klick was getting lynched D2 and she had her vote on the counterwagon during that time. She didn't comment on Klick much at all and didn't support or oppose his lynch. In her initial readslist in Post 740, she had one of her buddies (Does Bo Know) as town and the other (Klick) as "leaning town." She critisizes DBK a little but her interactions seem mostly dictated by how the game plays out as opposed to being twisted to benefit the scum wincon. In her updated reads list in Post 868, she still has DBK as town and Klick as lean town.

2) In Nonsensical Narnia, she was lynched and her buddy Bork made it to endgame and won. She had lots of interaction with Bork but the majority of it was initiated by him. She didn't scumread Bork or push a lynch against him at any point. They also plan in their scum QT to not bus although Bork was the one who initiated that idea.

3) GM was scum with Malakittens in Open 490: Donner Party. When suspected by Mala, she carefully tries to diffuse the suspicion as shown in Post 298. Most of the initiation of attacks was done by Malakittens. Some of GM's reactions to Mala match her reactions to Bork in that she isn't very keen on attacking her scumbuddies. She also had Malakittens as town in her reads list in Post 756 and her earlier interaction with Malakittens involved mainly responding to the suspicion without attacking back.

4) In another scum game Micro 137, in Post 138, GM makes a reads list and lists both her buddies Mac, and Sora very high in her townpile. ISO'ing her from that post and reading the next few posts, she makes a town-case for one of her buddies Mac, and continues to explain why her other buddy Sora, is a townlean despite making a case on Mac.

5) In Open 474, she was scum with JacobSavage and Venrob who was later replaced by Borkjerfkin. She starts a wagon on Venrob in Post 60. Her vote is a little awkward since it based on Venrob not posting at all as is her explanation towards the end of this post. She does have Jacob in her townleans in Post 241, but Venrob is at the bottom of the list. In her Post 271 where she explains her reads list, she reads Jacob as town even for small reasons while she bumps up the Venrob slot over another player (Josh). She switches over and puts him at L-1. This game was anomalous in that GM bussed a lot.

5) In Newbie 1305, GM was scum with Beli. I actually want to read this in full. Posting here to remind myself later.

6) She was scum with Beli again in Open 524: Donner Party. This is another one that I want to read in full.

Some of the conclusions I am drawing from them:

GM-Zekrom

: I think this pairing is unlikely. GM pushed RationalMadman almost in RVS in post 45 and said in 115 that her post had then changed to a policy vote. I find it unlikely GM would push a policy-lynch on her buddy. GM's first suspicion of MisakaMikoto was in response to Mikoto's catchup in Post 180. What did feel odd though was that she immediately voted Yuni instead of Mikoto herself. However, she does say she has a scumlean on Zekrom in Post 315 and she doesn't usually put her scumbuddies in her scum list. She continues in Post 566 that she doesn't like my analysis on Zekrom and in Post 602 where she says that she "

still doesn't like the Zekrom slot

," I feel much better about Zekrom because it seemed like GM is angling for a mislynch there as opposed to a bus. I also feel that based on meta, GM is more likely to hop off at the first chance of not having to bus as opposed to continue to keep the scumread for a long time. As for Rational's and Zekrom's play, they are very null. Rational's play was mildly townish on a gut level and Zekrom wagoned Iamausername and hammered GM.

I gotta head to bed. I'll continue with the rest later.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

She only interacted with Yiley once and mentioned him one other time. I'll re-evaluate this in more detail later.

And you are crazy if you are still thinking I am scum after I was a major reason for getting GM lynched over POD.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I really miss Tammy's analysis so I'll do the next best thing and verify all her stances on Zekrom:

Spoiler: Tammyposts

oh the mikoto slot is probstown

Maybe town are: zekrom

I don't know why you're bringing up zekrom? There's not a wagon on him, and as Beli said, his predecessor was pretty town - and yes, both of them were.

I don't agree that Zekrom is a VI, in fact he is also a town read

Not even the slightest hint of suspicion. So, this makes me feel a lot better about my own read. I think we can safely eliminate Zekrom from suspicion.

Moving on.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

boro doesn't seem too helpful

hello pot, have you met kettle?

This was the only interaction with Iam. Nothing there either way.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I want to pause. I don't feel like posting anything until we get those posts back.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I think Yuni will probably be replaced as well. I'll wait to hear what Kalimar and her replacement wants to say. Recap of my analysis in the missing posts: I feel sure that Kalimar's slot and Maxous are town. I'll save analysis on Yuni for when she is replaced. GM's interactions with Beli overall feel like town-scum although I am not as confident about it as with Maxous and Kalimar.

Beli-GM interactions

:
Both Beli and Yiley diverted attention off of the GM wagon. However, Beli initiating suspicion on GM while GM responds back with a "maybe I was wrong about LeMidget being town" in 534 came across as trying to create an out to FOS Beli which

isn't

how GM usually reacts when a scumbuddy FOSses her. I also feel that Beli-GM history with GM being one of the people Beli enjoys playing with makes sense for him to not deadline wagon GM but POD would be more *expendable* even from a town-Beli viewpoint.

Yiley-GM interactions

:

I am fairly confident Yiley is the last scum.

While GM hasn't interacted with Yiley much, the interactions from Yiley's side are bad. Post 621 from Yiley on defense of GM while admitting that she is playing badly feels like newbie scum-scum interactions. Post 96 in response to GM's post 95 feels as though he wants to take a contrary position to GM. Considering Yiley played a scumgame with Emerald where Emerald survived as scum and won, the lack of paranoia and easy townread doesn't make a lot of sense. Post 603 is another slam dunk tell when viewed in context. "

Contrary to GM up there, I am surprised that Khan is town

" makes ABSOLUTELY no sense. Why is he surprised? He was happy to vote POD along with Khan - he was voting the person that Khan had made a case on so it implies that he didn't find Khan extremely scummy at the least. ISO Yiley and Ctrl+F "Khan," KK," or "Kublai" and there is no mention at all about him. I believe this post was made just in order to take a *contrary* position to GoodMorning's post 602. Then comes Post 621 which argues against the GM wagon even more as it picks up pace.

I considered the mitigating factors that make Yiley town, posted in 560 and his deadline switch to GM. Upon examining Yiley's meta, I think his questioning in Post 380 is null since he's faked it as scum before here. Post 96 actually works against him when viewed from the knowledge that GM is scum as the distancing I explained above. I like that he said he would do research which I doubt would occur to scum-Yiley but it is not impossible. There is also the fact that there was no real follow up to it.

As for the deadline switch, no one knew that Zekrom was online and would hammer. It is possible that it occured to Yiley to switch for towncred and once we realize there is no one to hammer, we would all switch back to POD. Another more likely case is that I was pushing him to switch to GM and he thought he couldn't get out of bussing and did it in the heat of the moment. He didn't have to say that he was online but then it is also possible that he didn't think it would matter. The fact that his stances in disagreement of GM make no sense outweigh these.

So, just waiting for Kalimar to post and Yuni to be replaced, but most likely, I want Yiley vigged tonight.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Maxous, thoughts about this? Oh, and I don't think GM would throw a vote on Yuni for absolutely no reason if they were scumpartners in Post 180 and her explanation about the dithering and fence-sitting in Post 195. Take a quick look at GM's meta and I don't think it would occur to her to do it. She is not the distancing type. I think she would townread and protect her buddies from lynches.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Who/what are we waiting for at this point.

For Yuni to be replaced and the replacement to post. I am cool with hammering then. I'm feeling impatient too but I'd rather not end it right now just in case Yuni happens to be the vig.

@ Mod, it has been 48 hours since the game restarted so I am assuming prods/replacements would happen soon?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yiley has been posting elsewhere. Hopefully he'll show up here and that's one less person that needs to be replaced.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nearly all of us are pretty convinced you are scum. If you happen to be town, now is your chance to convince us otherwise.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't mind massclaiming mostly because I just want to see who the vig is and POE. I am a VT. I don't think order really matters. The scum won't claim vig or they lose.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I feel like unleashing the mischievous part of me and ruining Aegor's massclaim.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Penguin, what are your thoughts so far?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

No need to be snippy. The massclaim was not a waste of time.

I am the Vig. Yuni vigged BoroPhil for some elusive reason, and I did not see the need to Vig last night given the chances of being NKed.

So the remaining scum is one of {Falcon, Maxous, Beli, Kalimar}.

There are eight players remaining. Each Day/Night cycle eliminates 2 players, which means by tomorrow morning we have 6, the next morning we have 4, and then another lynch. If I Vig, tomorrow we have 5, the next day we have 3, and then another lynch.

So basically I will Vig tonight and only if the scum is the one person we do not kill, we will win this game.

You forgot to include N in the list of remaining possible scum. With eight players remaining, you being the vig, KK being the IC, and Penguin being the 1X Cop, we have a pool of five {F-16, N, Maxous, Beli, Kalimar} as potential scum. So yeah, you should obviously vig someone tonight and we should win unless we lynch/vig all four townies in our pool of five and leave the scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Aegor, I am townreading Zekrom/Kalimar for the reasons I wrote in Post 710. What are your thoughts about it?

N, I think the most likely scum is you/Yiley but I'll give you a chance to convince me otherwise. I like playing with you and I am hoping I was wrong. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the game. Have you caught up yet?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

You think Yiley is most likely scum? I thought he was obviously town. His play was almost exactly the same as in my Newbie game that you were in. He couldn't explain himself properly and when being suspected, flaked from the game.

Here's a scumgame of his (Shadow's Newbie 1451) and his play there wasn't that much different. I don't think the flaking is alignment indicative either.

Who do you think is scum then?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, I fake analysis as scum. I have to because I post analysis as town. That still makes it null unless you can comment on the quality of the analysis which you haven't.

I am surprised you are not seeing why my play doesn't make sense as scum at all. D1, I pushed Iam as scum even when some people were townreading him. But okay, you can't rule out bussing. Then he claimed. Then I hopped off the wagon and pushed GM's lynch instead. That's something I'd never do as scum because it is so suboptimal and harms the scum. I'd probably continue pushing Iam for the towncred since he was doomed anyways, or settle for a POD lynch. What I wouldn't do is bus my other buddy (the one that had a chance of making it through). I probably wouldn't be that adamant about getting GM lynched either.

Pedit: I am much more sure it is N based on the way he entered the game. You'll probably vig me if I am wrong but I don't think it will come to that. I am banking on the game ending. I don't think that Kalimar is scum. All his predecessors felt town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, that sounds good to me. I can bank the game on Maxous.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't find N town at all. He's played three games with me and modded two with me in it. In the game which he modded and I was town, I was a hider and was slightly more subdued than normal. In my scumgame that he modded, I put up a huge pile of meta analysis to "prove" that my scumbuddy was town. I find it a bit ridiculous that N thinks I am bussing the hell out of all my team-mates when I put up such an effort to defend in that game. He's also been scumpartners with me. He knows this isn't my scumgame.

I'm hammering him. As for who to shoot if we're wrong, Beli just seems even more town with his request to vig. I dunno, use your best judgment. Beli isn't going to make it through LYLO with Maxous, but if you harbor suspicions of me, I too would rather you just shoot me to assuage your paranoia as opposed to leave me alive and potentially mis-hammer me in LYLO. Paranoia is the worst thing in LYLO and I know even Nacho lost a couple of them due to it.

VOTE: N

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Sorry Penguin. I slept over it and realized there was no way N was town and got impatient to see the flip and hammered. My mistake. I should have waited for you to catch up.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Thanks for modding JerryArr. I had fun playing. You did very well with the timely votecounts, replacements, and getting through the unfortunate site issues with the missing posts.

I think town played awesome. The best thing you can do when scum get wagoned and claim a PR is not to lynch that PR but a different scum player and that's exactly what we did this game. It rarely happens as usually people don't buy the claim and lynch that scum or they compromise on a different townie. The town were all incredibly accurate and amazingly easy to work with. Definitely one of my better games and I am glad I helped influence the D1 lynch. GM, you played well but got unfortunately still got scumread. Not sure why you think it is a bad lynch. Sure, it was a deadline lynch but everyone had a chance to read through your play before making a decision. I will admit that you not being online near deadline hurt and you may have been able to talk yourself out of it had you been online and POD still lurked. But then POD wasn't online either so it goes both ways and the overall effect was fair since we were deciding between an inactive townie and inactive scum.

But yeah, town was amazing and I hope to see several players here again. The only miskill from the town was Borophil and he was so obvtown he was never going to get lynched anyways so from a collective standpoint, town was perfect. I especially thought Tammy's and Maxous's replace in reads were laser sharp, Beli came forth with his Yiley scumread at a critical point and convinced everyone to go for him, and Borophil basically kickstarted the GM lynch which pretty much sealed the game for town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Emerald, you did good. You kickstarted scum wagons, made great points about POD, and helped lynch scum. My mistake misreading you. I guess we were both mutually swimming with paranoia about each other and mutual paranoia usually fuels more paranoia. Good thing you got investigated so we didn't have to worry anymore.

GM, I wasn't scumreading you for inactivity either. I read all your posts and I thought you were scum.