Open 579: Pick Your (Chocolate) Power -- Game Over
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 20, droog wrote:In post 14, Romitelli wrote:Not particularly, but why do you ask?
you were the first player to not rvs vote
wondered why
What was that vote right before yours?-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 83, Aneninen wrote:
And don't forget our kitty! He's sleeping next to the keyboard which is good, because he's sleeping not NO the keyboard. And everyone knows if I didn't post anything about him that would be scummy.
Not disparaging the kitty in any way, but this feels trust-telly to me. Don't remember if you've mentioned him in my other games you've been in.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 86, davesaz wrote:In post 83, Aneninen wrote:
And don't forget our kitty! He's sleeping next to the keyboard which is good, because he's sleeping not NO the keyboard. And everyone knows if I didn't post anything about him that would be scummy.
Not disparaging the kitty in any way, but this feels trust-telly to me. Don't remember if you've mentioned him in my other games you've been in.
I think Aneninen just likes to talk about the kitty. Research showed that the kitty is mentioned in a completed game where Anen was scum. The other games where I didn't remember if it was mentioned can't be used as evidence yet anyway. The "everyone knows" language is what made me want to look. It looks like kitty mentions are a recent thing.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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I have mixed feelings on the setup speculation. Past results don't necessarily predict the future, for several reasons. I think hunting scum by behavior is much more accurate than hunting by setup. And when people claim I think it would be a big mistake to read alignment solely from the claimed role. But general discussion of strategies can be useful at times. I can occasionally read scum from the options they leave out of strategy discussions.
Mathdino, was there anything specific which led you to respond the way you did to my comment regarding the possible trust tell?
Aneninen, is there any particular reason you mangle people's names? I have found it disconcerting.
Flubber's RVS is not out of character for him, IMO. I think there will be a lot more to read from his 2nd round of comments.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 110, Mathdino wrote:
On the 'helpful townie' thing, I basically need to be involved and responding to people to stay on top of it. Side effect of extraversion. If I DON'T respond to people constantly and get input, I'm liable to forget things.
I was asking if your response to me was intended to be "helpful". I think your later reply was a "no" to this question.
Pedit: I have seen scum play which was blatantly pro-town on other sites, and have scum read people for doing it here. I was even correct on this point in the first newbie game I replaced into, but didn't follow through on it strongly enough. So "look at all the town stuff I'm doing" can indeed be scummy.
Oh, look, I'm agreeing with someone. The horror!-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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This makes it sound like you want to assume alchemist is town and find evidence to match. I don't see any town motivation for doing that. In fact it seems rather scummy to want to find a way to town read someone.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 131, droog wrote:Anem suggested amy was scummy
For being concerned with which picks are bests for scum
Scum have day talk
I don't see why scum would ask the public
When they could discuss in private
One possible underlying reason for scum asking a question like Amy did was to determine town's thoughts on the matter ahead of the point where a claim would be necessary. Knowing town's opinions on the subject, along with possibly ferreting out the town roles via the discussion, would help scum choose which role of the pair to claim. Just because scum have daytalk doesn't mean they won't discuss a topic with town in the open.
How do you evaluate Amy's posting if daytalk is ignored? Is it scummy if viewed from that position?-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 162, wgeurts wrote:Someone speak with meh.
I'm having trouble following your case. Could you lay it out with a bit more structure, like the progression of posts you saw?-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 163, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:Help I don't know what to post.
Was this meant to be first person, as in you don't know what to post, or sarcasm about wgeurts?-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 160, wgeurts wrote:Anyway, I don't have a lot to go off and yes my scum find is slightly non-serious.
How convenient. No, I didn't repeat my meta, I was just joking.
We need to however get discussion going as it's stalled around page 6. The scum will of cause lurk in this as it benefits them. So yeah, my vote is basicaly summed up as "Anen seems oportunistic". It's day 1 and we need discussion, get it going.
I agree that things are going slowly. Not pleased at all with there being 2-3 lurky slots already.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 157, Mathdino wrote:I did a quick search, Amy's not experienced, let's take that off the table.
I understand your doubt on the wgeurts thing, so I'll just go ahead and page
Alchemist
droog
Anyone who's played with wgeurts of both alignments
I want to confirm this, because I think this is a valid tell.
][Removed ongoing games reference ~insanityLast edited by insanity018 on Sun Nov 23, 2014 11:19 am, edited 2 times in total.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 147, Flubbernugget wrote:I wanna talk to Hayoto.
You haven't said much. Was there anything particular about Amy you didn't like?-
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davesaz HeSurvivor
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In post 116, Mathdino wrote:Addendum: Your lines of questioning suck, no offence. Your thoughts on setup spec and Flubber are enough to stop me from scumreading you, but yeah, those questions along with the paragraph on setup spec that mostly parrots popular opinion is kinda useless.
My "oh the horror" line was in response to this.
I dont see my posting style as useless. I tend to not be aggressive as either alignment. Get over it.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 222, Aneninen wrote:
– or, you could have talked about OTHER PRs too. A I the only one who noticed that there had been a lot of talk about the Vig and the Vengeful while basicly nothing about other PRs?
Are you sure about that?-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 209, Alchemist21 wrote:
Davesaz's posts look like an attempt to look busy without actually doing anything for the town. He asks plenty of questions to people but has rarely given his own input on matters. His lengthiest posts are about things that really won't go anywhere, like discussing the Kitty comments.
I often find it more revealing to ask questions while not giving my own view. Doing it that way avoids the issues inherent in leading questions.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 225, Aneninen wrote:In post 223, davesaz wrote:In post 222, Aneninen wrote:
– or, you could have talked about OTHER PRs too. A I the only one who noticed that there had been a lot of talk about the Vig and the Vengeful while basicly nothing about other PRs?
Are you sure about that?
I didn't say that it would have been a good idea. I only said it would have been less scummy if she had done that.
Wrong end of the sentence. Are you sure there has been nothing about the other PRs?-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 194, wgeurts wrote:Ah ok thanks.
Mathdino who do you think are scum?
Also thoughts on the lurkers?
I feel like we should pressure them to get discussion.
Any special reason you didn't act on this idea of pressuring people? I find it to be very passive, and the one liners since then are even worse.
VOTE: wgeurts-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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BTW, I had rejected voting wgeurts way back at 168 but screwed up the explanation.
There is town meta of him showing concern about lynching PRs. But I later thought his slow play was uncharacteristic of him as town. Cautious yes, but not slow.
I think Mathdino's jump off the wagon could be scum not wanting to remain first on the wagon if wgeurts flips town. The early vote could even be a catchphrase bus, with the wagon building as the reason to jump off and then be surprised if wgeurts flips scum. This gives me reason to watch Mathdino more closely, though not enough to tip the scales given how much pro-town activity he has had.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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I think that Siveure DtTrikyp is trying too hard to buddy me.
Spoiler: quotes
While I don't mind people town reading me, it doesn't fit well (or even at all) with the rest of his posting. The wgeurts vote is straight up sheeping, despite the commentary in the post. Even more ironic is that the point of my vote was to pressure wgeurts into doing something, and it gets sheeped by another player who isn't really hunting. And the buddy act continues on later.
VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp
@Ankamius, you may recall that I don't like naked votes.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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@Ank, yes you did.
@Mathdino, it's starting to creep me out that you get creeped out by the wagons. I expect some of the wagons I'm on early to grow, and some to go nowhere. It would have to be reaching the L-3 or higher level to really bother me. Wagons that get that far are much more revealing than ones which evaporate at 4 votes.
I note in this case that the reasons that people voted for are not all the same.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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Should be 8 to lynch, and thought we peaked at 4. Though I'm not paying attention to keeping mental count, TBH.
It's essential to keep the wagon at a pressure level long enough for the target to respond, since that response is important input to reads. Though one thing to keep in mind is that daytalk lets scum organize a hammer easier.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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Running through the players. Doing this in chunks to try to avoid text walls.
I previously posted my reasons for thinking Siv is scum. Haven't really seen anything to change it. An analysis of the wagon stall should be worthwhile.
From what little Romitelli has posted, I get a weak scum. He questions Amy about the setup speculation. Points out a contradiction between two of Amy's posts, which can be paraphrased as "Mathdino dragging out theory discussion" and "There was nothing else to talk about yet".
At best it isn't really a contradiction, and I lean toward this being scum pushing a false/fake contradiction.
Venrob has substantial meta for a chronic internet problem. I didn't like the other parts of his AtE. Overall I can't get a solid read, very null.
I did not like the way that farside was approaching the vig / vengeful discussion. The "if I were a vengeful I would kill X" thing seemed like role fishing. I didn't understand how droog's "no confidence in Amy wagon" post was scummy, as town could also have low confidence. But 406 showed good analysis, and the overall feeling is townish.
Ankamius feels town. The analysis in 447 feels legit.
Wgeurts feels town. My vote on him was only for pressure, and he handled it well. His efforts to get / keep discussion going seem legit.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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Droog feels weak town. The observation that Mathdino gets cold feet on every wagon is a good one. Meta analysis of flubber is accurate from what I've seen.
But the vote on Aneninen and stating in 467 that he'd like a compromise lynch will turn scummy if Siv is lynched and flips scum.
Flubber is null leaning town, via meta.
Adrien pretty thin, not enough to read. null
Alchemist is pretty interesting.
177 points out double standard on sheeping. 233 more about the sheeping. But did this double standard actually go anywhere? I don't think so, would have to look.
272 rules out Mathdino and wgeurts being scum buddies based on draft order. I'm not sure I buy this completely. Scum could pick the same number on purpose to make people think they can't be buddies. A scum team with one high and two low would make fairly good sense. This makes me want to check interactions between alchemist, wgeurts, and Mathdino.
Alchemist makes a point that scum might bus Siv, if siv is scum and got null. Good point... But in my experience, scum often point out potential reasons to bus when they are bussing, so that the suspect pool is larger after the scum flip. So pointing out the opportunity to bus is actually null or slightly scummy, not the obvious town you'd think on the surface.
All things considered, I get a weak scum on Alchemist. It needs associations to make it a real case, which we don't have yet.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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Amy's 239 and 287 engage in point by point with Aneninen. 338 is trying to extend the case on Aneninen. 434 and 439 respond to criticism of her case on Anen by asking her critics to point out exactly where she's a hypocrite. This seems to be a reasonable approach. Weak town read.
Aneninen's posting style is a mixture of matching what I have seen before (but cannot be quoted) and different from what I've seen before. Previous experience has tended toward longer posts. I have seen some tunneling. The analysis in 389 looks town motivated, though scum could also do that if it would either clear a buddy or frame a townie. It may be strange to say this on someone with so many posts, but my read is null. I don't know how to read the change in posting style, and some of the posts which seem town have plausible (and perhaps even expected) scum possibilities.
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I saved Mathdino for last because there is so much information.
Lots of setup speculation. I'm not really comfortable with town trying to direct vig / vengeful because of the high probability that outspoken scum could control it by urging town to make bad suggestions. 50 looks busy but boils down to null reads. Votes Amy in 68 for "doing x would be useful as scum", which is a pretty null thing to say. More vig/vengeful discussion.
Post 137 "I'd like farside and Hayate to be town" jumped out at me, this always strikes me as odd. Post 145 could be role fishing. 152 switches to wgeurts, but would get back on Amy if necessary. 260 unvotes wgeurts, worried about wagons forming easily. (I disagree, the time to be worried is when they dissolve easily). Says in 269 that the amy wagon was different.
314 creeped out about people joining wagons he starts. This bothered me a bit, as town I want people to join my wagons. I can see that it's about the speed of the wagons, but even that is questionable to me as others could easily be reacting to what they see happening in the thread, not to who started the wagon.
375 is the post where he splits the player list into groups which "can't be scum together". This post is one which looks townie but is probably more useful to scum. 378 is again on the setup speculation. 426 unvotes (from Siv) 449 votes Alchemist, doesn't have a "top 3" -- has 2 lists based on flips. Looking back at that...
post 375 wrote:
If Siv's scum: Siveure, Romitelli, Amy, wgeurts, Adrien, Ankamius
If Siv's town: Alchemist, Aneninen, Amy, wgeurts, Flubbernugget, Ankamius
Which boils down to siv+romitelli+amy/wgeurts vs. Alchemist+Anen+amy/wgeurts. I find it interesting that the 3rd scum position, in both of these lists, is Amy or wgeurts, who he unvoted as being creeped out about how fast the wagons went. If he really thought they were scummy, why jump off the wagons so fast?
Overall, I get a weak scum on Mathdino.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 488, Ankamius wrote:davesaz for the earlier posts in his ISO I mentioned before.
I don't really get this. I pointed out something of the form "anyone knows if I don't do x it's scummy" (in a game state where we were basically still in RVS), and then posted that I had researched it and that it wasn't unusual. How is that in any way scummy? From someone with meta saying that I'm getting old and I tend to post immediately when I see something, vs. trying to remember that I need to research it? (That meta may not yet be in a usable state, TBH)-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 494, davesaz wrote:In post 488, Ankamius wrote:davesaz for the earlier posts in his ISO I mentioned before.
I don't really get this. I pointed out something of the form "anyone knows if I don't do x it's scummy" (in a game state where we were basically still in RVS), and then posted that I had researched it and that it wasn't unusual. How is that in any way scummy? From someone with meta saying that I'm getting old and I tend to post immediately when I see something, vs. trying to remember that I need to research it? (That meta may not yet be in a usable state, TBH)
In post 496, Ankamius wrote:The kitty case makes absolutely no sense and there's no way you can link that to alignment either directly or indirectly, making it a bogus point. The argument that it helps end RVS can't really be used either since your ISO#4 has very little content for the amount of words in it. The entire sequence doesn't really make sense from a town mindset.
Let's make this very clear. If anyone does X, and then says "if I don't do X then I'm scummy", I'm going to research that as a possible trust tell. Period. It's the definition of trust tell, as I understand it. I did research it, and there was no evidence that it actually was one, and there was evidence that it was new and a joke, so I posted that Anen was cleared on that point. That was the entire point of ISO 4, and I used that many words because I didn't want it to be an otherwise empty post.
This is as town as it gets. The mindset it doesn't make sense for is the scum mindset.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 497, Mathdino wrote:
Please explain how 375 is more useful to scum. The idea of "looks townie but is probably more useful to scum" is something that really needs to be backed up with something, because otherwise it's a "too townish to be town" argument.
I put this post in the same category as ruling out the possibility that scum wouldn't pick two numbers the same.Eliminatingpossibilities is good for scum, because it prevents town from reading the other player in the set as scum once the first one flips. The correct town mindset is that it'sunlikelythat scum picked two numbers the same, or it'sunlikelythat there are two scum in this set of players. Thinking that it's impossible for a player to be scum is the foundation for scum winning.
Is this just a terminology thing? Maybe. But I'm not in a big rush to dismiss the difference.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 497, Mathdino wrote:
As scum you don't want people to join your wagons? Last I checked, goal of scum was to survive and mislynch. You're comparing our playstyles where it's not applicable; I'm fairly cautious especially when weirded out. The speed of those wagons, the majority of the votes of which were without reason and pretty much sheeping, was just bad. Read my posts before you set up a straw man.
Hope you don't mind my going a point at a time and not necessarily in order...
I did read your posts. There are 4 possible orientations to this topic, presented in the totally arbitrary order of scum first, then town:
1. Scum, doesn't want an actual wagon to take off. Examples of this orientation are establishing an early bus to distance, but not wanting the buddy to actually get lynched. Also establishing a pattern of vote hopping to disguise later vote hops when the hop is needed to get a mislynch.
2. Scum, does want a wagon. Two possible reasons, wants a mislynch, or wants to get to L-1 to prompt a claim and out the PR.
3. Town, doesn't want a wagon. RVS votes are the obvious example, also town may kick off a wagon as a reaction test and want to dismantle it as soon as a good reaction is seen.
4. Town, does want a wagon. Two cases for this one, the target is a real scum read, or it's getting close to deadline and town prefers a mislynch to a no-lynch.
Cases 1 and 3 are the relevant ones to examining why someone leaves a wagon. Town, in case 3, will usually acknowledge that the target responded well to the test. Scum, in case 1 when the original motivation was to bus and distance, can use the "good response" reason to leave the wagon when their partner does actually respond well. If the partner hasn't responded well, scum have to manufacture a bogus reason to leave the wagon, or have a decent wagon to jump to. If scum are trying to establish a vote hopping pattern, it's actually beneficial to just hop without giving a reason for leaving the old wagon.
What I struggle with is fitting your stated reason for leaving the wagons into case 3. If you originally thought the target was scummy, it would be a case 4 and you'd want to try to lynch. So you didn't think the target was lynch worthy in the first place, or you did find the target scummy at that time and your stated reason "the wagon went too fast" is the truth. But with 3 scum and wagons reaching 4 or 5 votes, there is no real danger of a quick lynch. Why not let it cook for a while and see if the wagon grows any more? Thinking the wagon grew too fast, and in particular thinking that the majority of the votes are sheeping, ignores the possibility that town merely agreed that the target is scummy.
This makes me think that case 1 is a possibility. But you do correctly point out that this could just be a difference in style.
P-edit. 375 could also be a difference in style. I'm a "never say never" player. That does not mean that I think that the combinations are likely. I agree that there are some unlikely combinations, but that does not prevent me from investigating them anyway.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 514, wgeurts wrote:@MathDino
You're doing a good job of making people suspicious, I think it's however incorrect. The amount of effort you're putting in would be odd as scum.
I've seen scum put in even more effort, many times. And that does factor into my scum hunting, on a case by case basis.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 515, Mathdino wrote:
davesaz, what I find hard to reconcile about your manner of scumhunting is as a "never say never" player you're awfully black and white. You:
1. Assume that these 4 cases are all that's possible.
2. Attempt to shoehorn my behaviour into one of these 4 cases.
3. Assume what I WOULD do which is a blatant oversimplification.
4. Straw man again on why I left those wagons.
I thought Amy was scummy. The speed at which everyone jumped on her wagon made me uneasy however, and made me think it might be scum motivated. I'm unsure of this, but the circumstances were very odd.
I thought wgeurts was a little bit scummy based on a tell I thought I saw, so I voted him basically to see where it'd take me. It took me to L-2 again, with a ton of unwarranted votes that don't at all match wgeurts's scumminess. I jumped off to regroup and do some wagon analysis.
Everyone suddenly agreeing with me on those wagons is strange and unrealistic from my POV. Perhaps I AM ignoring the possibility that town agreed he was scummy, but even then, you're attacking my logic, not my alignment.
Also, I have to reiterate that the only way that my ruling out of possibilities is scummy is if you believe that 2 scum picked the same draft. Otherwise, if I were scum and we all picked 3 different numbers, that PoE doesn't help scum at all. So do you think wgeurts and I are scum? Furthermore, since you're speculating that this fits into 'case 1', why would I NEED to distance from my partner when there's already incredibly solid evidence we're not scum together? Unnecessary risk.
1. On these being the only 4 cases, if you can name another I'm all ears.
(pre-empting the "changing one's mind" scenario, in logic terms that becomes the position you're changing to)
2. It's only shoehorning if there are other valid cases.
3. I think I'm comparing what you did do to what players of either alignment might do. I would not presume to say I know for a fact what your intent was.
4. I don't think you're using the term "strawman" in the same way I would
I agree there is a difference between being town with different logic (note I'm not even going to call it faulty), vs scum.
If you carefully read my conclusion you will find that I'm not sure which interpretation fits this evidence.
Given I'm not voting you, and my read was weak to begin with, there is plenty of time to update it one way or the other depending on how the game progresses.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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In post 30, Mathdino wrote:I wouldn't put it past clever scum to double up and have the 3rd scum pick a separate number. It might be something I'd do out of audacity. Agree on everything else though.
I will point out that this scenario is exactly what I used to say that 375 (?) shouldn't be used to rule people out as possible scum.
pedit: droog, it doesn't work as well when you go post by post like that. Especially with the really early stuff. This would give you a nice post count but not necessarily town points.-
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davesaz HeSurvivorHe
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I'm seriously conflicted now. The Siv wagon got resistance, which often means it's hit scum. But it could be that the relatively quiet people believe the VT claim and just haven't been active in finding an alternative. I see the reason for the case on Mathdino. Haven't had time to go deep on Alchemist to see if there is a case. On the numbers game, I look at the suggested low, middle, high spread and get lots of plausible scum combinations, but it dissolved quickly into WIFOM. I still can't put an alignment on Anen from a meta point of vew, the difference I noticed is still there but the comparison games aren't complete.
I know this doesn't come to any conclusions. Guess it's really just an elaborate prod dodge along with an acknowledgment that there is work to do.-
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