Open 611 - Making Friends and Enemies (Game Over!)

[Expedience]

I see clear reasoning, you seem awfully ready to hand out town-reads.

I town hunt.

I don't like this at all. How does townhunting help the town? It's not as if we're going to somehow reverse lynch them to win the game. There's a chance that you could townread scum, there's also a chance that you could get town-looking players killed by pointing out how town they look.

You should just hunt in general to try and find scum. If you're trying to find the scum by process of elimination of who is town, that's a roundabout way to say that you're scumhunting. And, therefore, no excuse for not trying to find scum based on positive rather than negative proof.

This feels like a poor excuse which was made up after you were accused, rather than something that is consistent with your playstyle.

[Expedience]

I'm asking because I want to know people's opinions.
I'm not fencesitting, i made my thoughts clear as day. Tho if people still can't understand them then they can ask.

Another contradiction? You just practically admitted to fence sitting in your previous post.
How is asking for insight wanting to know others opinions?

This is an example of how Killthestory is looking for ways to scumread people way too hard. It feels to me like she's trying to look as if she's scumhunting while not actually doing so. Nitpicking in this way is irrelevant and will take attention off anyone who Killthestory doesn't want us to focus on.

[Expedience]

My post accomplished multiple things.
1) I laid my thoughts about the setup.
2) People dropped the RVSing because now they are focusing on some content i.e my post and all the reactions to it.
3) I have now townreads on multiple people based on their reactions to this.

I do have to say that my post accomplished the goal of getting us out of RVS and got us moving.

I agree with this and don't view Luna's post on setup speculation as alignment indicative, at all. It's actually helped the game to progress, but I can't say if this was her intention.

[Expedience]

HEY EXP, you got any real shit to add or you jsut gonna discredit eveyone

discrediting everyone =/= real shit?

Then what is real shit?

[Expedience]

Exp, you ever seen a townhunting playstyle? Serious question.

No, I don't know what you mean. I presume that it involves finding scum by clearing other players as town. Is it something specific to this setup?

And in case the answer is no, how much mafia experience do you have?

Not much.

[Expedience]

No, I don't know what you mean. I presume that it involves finding scum by clearing other players as town. Is it something specific to this setup?

Not exaclty "clearing" per se. But you're close.
I basically have an easier time on picking things that town does, rather than scum faking stuff, so usually i'll find scum by them being on the people i townread the least (or not townread at all) via the use PoE.

That sounds really stupid, and I don't see how that precludes scumhunting at all. You were saying it as if you had to choose one or the other, but don't most people play like this anyway?

[Expedience]

Luna: town, at least she's trying to reverse scumhunt or whatever. I don't have any problems with her setup speculation, as I said earlier.

Killthestory: slight town, gives me more of a tryhard town than tryhard scum vibe. Either way she's accusing people for dumb reasons.

Firebringer: town, I agree with #46 and he's contributing good points to discussion.

Gob: town for now from the few pretty good posts he's made, if he posted more I could be more sure.

Ika: null, I don't agree at all with what he's saying about Luna rolefishing and me being scum accusing everyone for solely playstyle differences but I guess he could just be town with a different perspective to me and an inability to spell coherently.

Heartless: slight scum, #124 is pretty bad. I think a town member wouldn't read literally everyone who has posted all at once so dismissively. Otherwise he hasn't said much of value.

[Expedience]

/looks in

yep, looks like everyone here is still town

i guess the scumbutts are gonna' be late to the party

Heartless, can you be more specific as to why are you reading everyone who has posted as town?

I see a similar attitude in 38, and you didn't seem willing to justify yourself with anything other than "gut" when you were called out on it earlier.

VOTE: Heartless

[Expedience]

This is the extent of everyone who has posted before you.
Remove Heartless since you're talking about his reads and you have.
Town, slight town, town, town, null.
Isn't this what Heartless is reading with the exception of you having a null in ika?

Because I actually gave some basis behind my opinions rather than just "yep, looks like everyone here is still town".

[Expedience]

He alludes that he explains everything and here:

Gob: town for now from the few pretty good posts he's made, if he posted more I could be more sure.

10/10 explanation.

Here's why:

60: Raises a valid point, this was honestly what I was thinking as I read through the thread.
64: Makes it clear that he dislikes the fact that the scum are townreading many players quickly, but not necessarily because they are gut reads. This seems town-motivated, because he's clear to accuse people for the reasons that he considers correct.
68: Restating a point, null.
74: Gob seems to be town-minded here, and is trying to gather information on questionable behavior.

And that's all that he'd written at that point.

I can do this for other players if you want, but I have better things to do with my time.

I think Alchemist is scum.

Why? Is this a gut read?

[Expedience]

64: Makes it clear that he dislikes the fact that

the scum

are townreading many players quickly, but not necessarily because they are gut reads.

I didn't proofread this and evidently worded this very poorly. I don't think that Luna is scum, that was meant to be some kind of general statement about it being a scumread but I mangled sentences together. Consider this sentence revised to:

64: Makes it clear that he dislikes the fact that Luna is townreading many players quickly, but not necessarily that they are gut reads.

[Expedience]

VOTE: Expedience

and post 105 has no real contents there. and is jsut anice potshot

This I agree with. Expedience just tried to undermine a common playstyle. It's hard to believe he wouldn't know better by now.

How hard to believe? I've never heard of "townhunting" being a common playstyle until this game, and I still don't think that it's much different to how town normally should play. Since it seems widespread enough I can now accept that it wasn't used as an excuse to hide scum motive.

[Expedience]

This is the extent of everyone who has posted before you.
Remove Heartless since you're talking about his reads and you have.
Town, slight town, town, town, null.
Isn't this what Heartless is reading with the exception of you having a null in ika?

Because I actually gave some basis behind my opinions rather than just "yep, looks like everyone here is still town".

alright... teaching moment.

expedience, plz complete the following sentence:
"scum are less likely to give reasons with a vote because _________"

They don't have good reasoning behind their vote, because being scum themselves they cannot legitimately scumhunt.

Not sure if you're implying that I'm wrong or just asking if I know or not. If you want to challenge my biases or whatever I'm cool with that.

[Expedience]

Expedience, Hon, you don't know what in the fuck I'm actually doing, so don't pretend you do. Okay, Dear, thanks ^-^.

What are you doing then? If you gave substance rather than condescension it would help me to read you.

[Expedience]

Actually, look back through Expedience's ISO. It's not just Luna he attacked, but killthestory too. Then somehow, instead of pushing those two, he has both at the top of his Townreads, and uses the same reasoning he attacked Luna for to Townread her. I know this was after he got some pushback from others for attacking playstyle, but to me that kind of reversal looks more like scum trying to stay out of the hot seat.

Firstly, they weren't at the top of my reads, which were not in order. This is shown by how I read Killthestory as "slight town", but Firebringer as "town".

I can criticize one aspect of a player's behavior while still reading them as town. You're implying that I am somehow inconsistent for not continuing to push people who I have already accused, which I don't understand. Luna gave adequate responses to allay my doubts about the "townhunting" thing, while Killthestory hadn't responded to my accusation (which was really the main problem I had with her) at that time.

[Expedience]

I can see the change with Luna, but you went from calling out kill for not actually scumhunting to Townreading her without her ever posting inbetween. So what caused that change of heart?

There wasn't a change of heart, I had a slight townread on her throughout both those posts. That was just something I picked up on that I didn't like, and it wasn't enough to change my overall read.

[Expedience]

They don't have good reasoning behind their vote, because being scum themselves they cannot legitimately scumhunt.

Not sure if you're implying that I'm wrong or just asking if I know or not. If you want to challenge my biases or whatever I'm cool with that.

in theory...

in practice, scum can give reasons so they do and some town don't give reasons for various reasons.

if you look at any completed game, it doesn't take long to see this.

an extreme example: here's 9:12: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=62595
(the whole game is only 9 pages long and they're all really short posts)

a less extreme example, if you have time to read, space dandy: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=62603
and butterfly: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=62917

these are just ones i was in on this hydra, but you can really look at ... any game.

They don't have good reasoning behind their vote, because being scum themselves they cannot legitimately scumhunt.

OK, NOW THAT I SAID ALL THAT, THERE IS A FUNDAMENTAL TRUTH TO THIS.
but i submit to you that it's a little more nuanced than "so-and-so didn't tack on an immediately obvious reason therefore there isn't one"

All right, I get what you're saying. I view things in a rather black-and-white way, so I probably misrepresented what was really just a tendency for scum to do something, even though it isn't a particularly strong trend.

[Expedience]

Liking Antihero more, liking Firebringer less.

The whimsical behavior seems off and evasive, I agree with what Alchemist is saying in 288. I'd say it seems more like a scum reaction than a town reaction to being suspected, like "whee everyone look at me I don't even care that I'm being accused".

Also, let's not argue about irrelevant stuff pls.

[Expedience]

KTS wagon seems okay too...

Ultimately, I think that she seems more genuinely pissed off, while Firebringer just keeps getting faker.

VOTE: Firebringer

[Expedience]

KTS came into the game with attitude.
However Exo, if you see KTS as genuine, then why is the wagon okay?
This is just sitting on the fence for me.

I don't see FB as scum yet.

Because I think Firebringer is less genuine than KTS, but KTS is not 100% genuine. I also dislike KTS for reasons such as how she evaded questioning with her antagonism. The wagon is okay for other reasons, but her reaction being faked isn't a big one.

[Expedience]

Um yeah, I don't see where KTS is coming from about Heartless in 413, like at all. I guess you could call those posts defensive since they're defending accusations, but is it a bad kind of defensive? Not really. I would actually have more problems if Heartless gave no response to what anyone said about them.

[Expedience]

Right, and we're left with what exactly? gob changed his meta on MS woop-dee-doop cool story

whatever

I'mma go sleep brain has quit

FoS Gob.

I don't like the feeling I get about him. His playing now is an easy way to play, but it doesn't catch much scum. That isn't normal Gobln. At all.

So... are you going to quantify this beyond a gut read and meta, considering how you've said that both of those things aren't good to use to read people?

This post reads like someone trying to backpedal but not doing it too much because they don't want to look inconsistent.

[Expedience]

Expediance sure flips on me oddly quick. Going to say its sheep town than anything else.

Since you're viewing my vote like this, I'd like to justify my opinion. When I read you earlier in the game, I viewed your whimsical tone as town, as if your main priority was having fun. But after you started evading questioning, it began to seem like something you were using to hide behind accusations, and turned a large reason for reading you as town on its head.

Also, it was only around page 100 or somthing that I was reading you as town, so my premature reads had 300 or so pages to change.

[Expedience]

Right, and we're left with what exactly? gob changed his meta on MS woop-dee-doop cool story

whatever

I'mma go sleep brain has quit

FoS Gob.

I don't like the feeling I get about him. His playing now is an easy way to play, but it doesn't catch much scum. That isn't normal Gobln. At all.

So... are you going to quantify this beyond a gut read and meta, considering how you've said that both of those things aren't good to use to read people?

This post reads like someone trying to backpedal but not doing it too much because they don't want to look inconsistent.

I already gut read him in the before post I talked about him, which stated (may as well adapt) since I've read up on a couple games, and surprisingly, MS gut reads seem to be pretty consistent.

Meta is unreliable for certain players. Gobln isn't one.

What does "MS gut reads seem to be pretty consistent." mean? GM apparently didn't understand either.

I've reread it and I can't tell what you're trying to say. Something about gut reads in general across the site being either unchanging or commonplace, or just your gut read on gob, or something else entirely? I'm not trying to interrogate you or anything, I just want to parse the meaning of what you said.

[Expedience]

I don't see any problem if people want to idly push counterwagons for a bit, it's not as if we're pressed for time. I still think Firebringer is the best lynch, though.

552 only makes me more sure, it looks like a last-ditch attempt to appeal to fear or whatever. I imagine he's probably just going to come back 20 hours later trying to defend himself again.

[Expedience]

Kinda starting to feel disengaged so I'll post reads, I don't see why not to do this if I have time and it will help the town a bit if I get killed at night.

name	read	explanation
ika	null	Still null like before, he's gone inactive as of recently and he's not posting that much. I don't really know how I feel about the Mason claim, I guess he's just messing around like he apparently usually does but silly fakeclaims make me uneasy.
Warped	town	Really liked his entrance, there's not anything else I can judge him based on. Idk if it should be a slight-town instead of town but this read could change after he posts more.
Vedith	slight-scum	I mean, he's saying some town stuff, but I just get a bad feeling about him. It's a gut thing which is hard to explain, but if I were to try and quantify it, I would say that he is more cheerful this game than in other games I have read. I also don't really like the "this lynch is too easy" thing in 566, because he practically invalidated his own point by trying to make it harder... It also restates what Grayfoxxxx has already said in 492. I'm going to contradict Warped here and say that scum would quite happily attempt to derail a lynch on either town or scum if it meant that it made them look more town or saved a scumpartner (depending on Firebringer's alignment). There's also WIFOM here as well, so I don't really think motives can be used to show alignment.
goodmorning	town	Pretty involved in discussion, and showing thought process which seems really legitimate to me. I don't think scum could fake being this pro-town in this many posts.
shaddowez	town	Mostly reading him as town because of Luna, shaddowez hasn't really stood out to me that much.
Killthestory	null	I don't really know what her meta is so I can't judge the aggression or the argument thing accurately. She looks like she's scumhunting, however I stand by what I said before about her reaching. I'm still unsure if this is alignment indicative. A lot of weird and in my opinion unjustified focus on gob, too.
gob	slight-town	My townread weakened slightly, he seems to blend in for me and I'm not really noticing him a lot.
Alchemist21	slight-town	He's asking a lot of good questions and his posts look like there is thought put into them.
Expedience	town	Me.
Antihero	town	I didn't really like him a lot at the start but I get what he's doing now a lot more and I like the direction that he's pushing the town.
CityElectric	scum	I agree a lot with what everyone else is saying basically. Also, I don't like to be meta like this but I agree with GM the fact that ronit replaced after seeing his role PM is likely alignment indicative.
GrayFoxxxx	slight-scum	492 is kinda off. "low hanging fruit" is a buzzphrase thing that I don't like much, this sounds like an excuse to be contrary and and maybe an excuse not to vote Killthestory / Firebringer who could be scumbuddies.
Firebringer	scum	Already said why, would rather watch him get hammered than write about him more.

[Expedience]

Aw, Antihero died. I think Vedith is probably the last scum.

Anyway, I have to go now.

[Expedience]

There are 2 more Scum.

Uh, good point.

When I thought there were 2 scum, Vedith's attempt to derail the lynch appeared to be a desperate attempt to prevent a lynch on his only scumpartner. Since they wouldn't gain enough towncred from pushing the lynch to justify such a catastrophic loss of half their team.

But hm, I partially retract that considering how I was mistaken there.

Also I noticed this:

I don't like the top 2 current wagons. They both could be low hanging fruit for scum to jump on. I'm more comfortable with a fire lynch if it really came down to those 2.

This distinguishes Grayfoxxxx's attempt to derail the lynch from Vedith's attempt, because he said he'd rather lynch Firebringer than Killthestory.

VOTE: Vedith

For now at least. City's vote on Vedith makes me a bit uneasy but I like Vedith's vote on Warped less.

[Expedience]

Also I noticed this:

I don't like the top 2 current wagons. They both could be low hanging fruit for scum to jump on. I'm more comfortable with a fire lynch if it really came down to those 2.

This distinguishes Grayfoxxxx's attempt to derail the lynch from Vedith's attempt, because he said he'd rather lynch Firebringer than Killthestory.

Actually come to think of it that's pretty classic weak bussing.

I don't really think Grayfoxxxx would do that though. Someone might not even notice it, and it's too subtle to make him look that good anyway. If he wanted to bus Firebringer I think he would've been more overt about it to get maximum towncred.

Town
Ika-Nothing has jumped at me to say anything otherwise. Ika posts are Ika posts.
Expediance-I don't think he is 'newbie' like everyone says. I also notice a tendancy for players to dismiss someone as newbie and it being blatantly false, so I am going with town for him just to be the black sheep.
Luna Fox-I don't know Luna fox well, nothing has jumped out at me, entrance was odd but playing a setup for first time and asking innocent questions seems fine to me. I did so in a completely different game as town and was scum read by everyone, so I understand.
Null
Killthestory-Puts too much thought into posts, could mean trying to find scum reads as scum, could be try hard town. Don't know, I know the playstyle of hers is familiar but reading players like this is hard.
Heartless-Townreads everyone which I have never seen heartless do, then scum reads me which I try to look at as a town tell but I think it felt forced to me. Null for now.
Alchemist-He just got in, not enough content. He seems like normal Alchemist that I like, but not ready to call him town yet. Liked his entrance though.
Scum
Gob-So little content, how can anyone town read gob? Putting gob at scum for now.
Vedith-HE MUST BE SCUM BECAUSE I SAID SO!

why did we not see this?

intresting placement on gob but never seems to vote to my recolections

I didn't remember this post, and it makes me a uncomfortable about voting Vedith to be honest. While these are obviously bad reads, I don't think he'd put a scumpartner at the very bottom. I would rather vote for City, who Firebringer left off altogether. Also City's 617 vote seems really opportunistic.

I wish they would talk more so we could get a better idea, but for now I prefer a CityElectric vote.

UNVOTE: Vedith
VOTE: CityElectric

I like this vote better.

[Expedience]

I'm leaning scum on Grayfoxxxx / CityElectric for now. I thought the activity list thing that GM made was pretty damning. It's hard to refute the fact that even the most active of Grayfoxxxx's scum games have less activity than the least active of his town games, and that Grayfoxxxx's activity here is safely in the scum category.

The case on Vedith was kinda okay before GM tore it to shreds, but it really seems like something that was made up after the fact (I think Warped said something about this too, it's a bit uncharacteristic) to find excuses for scumreading Vedith.

I still think CityElectric is scum, but I would rather vote for Grayfoxxxx because I feel the evidence is more objective rather than subjective.

UNVOTE: CityElectric
VOTE: Grayfoxxxx

Also Gray, I don't see how 215 makes sense from the perspective of ika being Mason.

[Expedience]

Go GM! I'm cheering you on from the side!

Just saying, this reminds me of what Firebringer was like near to his lynch.

[Expedience]

I'm leaning scum on Grayfoxxxx / CityElectric for now. I thought the activity list thing that GM made was pretty damning. It's hard to refute the fact that even the most active of Grayfoxxxx's scum games have less activity than the least active of his town games, and that Grayfoxxxx's activity here is safely in the scum category.

The case on Vedith was kinda okay before GM tore it to shreds, but it really seems like something that was made up after the fact (I think Warped said something about this too, it's a bit uncharacteristic) to find excuses for scumreading Vedith.

I still think CityElectric is scum, but I would rather vote for Grayfoxxxx because I feel the evidence is more objective rather than subjective.

UNVOTE: CityElectric
VOTE: Grayfoxxxx

Also Gray, I don't see how 215 makes sense from the perspective of ika being Mason.

This has come up in one other game. The Delicious Mafia 2.

I think I replaced out of both of my scum games (real life reasons, wasn't receiving any pressure). I site flaked on one of them I know

Using that as some sort of meta is highly unreliable. If you just look on paper yes the posts were low.

Yeah, but I think it was already established that you aren't being currently inactive sitewide.

I generally agree that meta is usually bad to use because people can manipulate their meta. In this case, however, is it really feasible to suggest that you are deliberately playing inactively as town? I think meta is okay to use here because of how inactivity can be construed as a scumtell on its own for independent reasons.

Along with my already present scumread of you, I think that it is very unlikely that your inactivity here is an anomaly, making it the lowest activity level you would have had in a town game so far.

[Expedience]

Go GM! I'm cheering you on from the side!

Just saying, this reminds me of what Firebringer was like near to his lynch.

Link it!

515, 529, 578.

[Expedience]

Go GM! I'm cheering you on from the side!

Just saying, this reminds me of what Firebringer was like near to his lynch.

Link it!

515, 529, 578.

Make that 539 not 529.

[Expedience]

Alright, while I really do like objective evidence you've placed it in enough doubt to make me question its validity. Mostly the part where there are only 2 scumgames in which you flaked during the same time (if I understand correctly) makes me question the trend.

I might actually try some mathy shit later once I get off mobile but just for curiosity's sake as it won't account for being inactive in multiple games simultaneously.

Vedith wagon is okay, I guess? Not feeling it as much as a City wagon. I'll just leave this vote here to represent who I'd rather lynch.

UNVOTE: Grayfoxxxx
VOTE: CityElectric

[Expedience]

@Exp: Where is your scumread on me coming from?

Spoiler: Where my scumread on you is coming from

Right, I'm awake.

Also OMG when did City come back?????

Like, 5 days ago or so So you all get to watch my glorious (ahem) return to the game.

As for reads so far: I'm going to throw Luna/Shaddowez in the town pile for now. Luna's posts definitely seemed to come from someone who didn't quite know how the game was played here, but they felt townish. Heartless/Anti is in that pile too, though that is more of a gut read. I'm having a hard time reading Fire through all the noise that comes out of him, but I'm feeling scum on him. KTS seems waaaay to focused on how the game should be played in her opinion and too little on actually playing the game, so she goes on the scum pile as well.

Aside from these peeps no one really jumped out to me on first read, and I gotta get my lazy ass into class so I don't really have time to comb through the thread getting reads on them rn. More to come later.

VOTE: Killthestory, this seems like a good wagon.

I don't like the vote here, you seem to acknowledge that Fire looks scummy but you vote KTS instead. Being too "focused on how the game should be played in her opinion" is not really a scumtell, and it looks like you're trying to find an excuse to vote KTS over Fire. As I was reading through I noticed that I wrote basically the same thing as Antihero here, I agree with him and think he worded it more concisely.

Anti: I'm more sure on my scum read of KTS than the gut 'this feels not entirely right but I can't put my finger on what it is' read I have on Fire. In other words, my scum read on KTS is stronger. Guess that wasn't too clear from my post.

KTS: I second Vedith, what have you gained from your play style so far on the alignment of other players?

GM: yeah, same on the slowness. I think the site was down earlier too.

This is kind of ew and backtracking, you aren't willing to take a stance and you're trying to avoid being controversial if the best scumread you can find is KTS then.

Ika: Oh, I'm more than willing to vote Fire eventually, but I don't mind having a little pressure on KTS to see what they produce under pressure.

Not really consistent with what you said before, more backtracking. You said that you thought KTS was scummy but now you're apparently just pressure voting her and willing to change to vote Fire later.

@KTS: Aside from that last post, a push on Luna, a half-hearted attempt at attacking GM and some arguing with Heartless where you seem to be basing your reads on how they react in an argument on fluff in thread (which IMO has zero to do with alignment or not) there's very little actually there on what you think on the players in the game. Like, yes, you may be scumhunting, but you're barely sharing any results and thought-processes, which makes your posts come off as scum trying to act town to me.

What are your thoughts on Anti? Town, scum? Why?

This comment is not so bad but it still feels a bit like you're justifying your KTS scumread after you were called out on it.

@KTS: What jumps out as defensive to you? Any posts in particular? (I'm only asking bc I have a hard time seeing it personally).

Now onto more reads: Alch's posts seem to come from a town-place, so onto the town pile he goes; same for ika; Dray literally has 2 posts and absolutely nothing in them to go off (one expressing surprise at the pace of the game, one basically a late RVS) making him a solid null read; can't make anything of gob, slight slight slight gut town read; GM's posts seem okay, slight town read; Gray has like 2 posts of actual game content, nothing in it jumps out as off (though I disagree with the Alch read in Post 328), but there's too little to make me either way so null; I'm okay with Ved's posting but that might largely be influenced by the fact we're both taking a similar angle at the KTS push, slight town read.

You seem rather unwilling to read people as scum, the only scumreads so far are very slight on Fire & KTS. The last bit almost feels like an admission to buddying Vedith or at least an acknowledgement that you might be on the verge of doing so.

@GM: always happy to serve (tho I am kinda curious as to why you 'need to scumread' me (part of me feels like it's a joke flying waaaay over my head at 0:50))

@KTS: Still not seeing it. Also what anti said.

This is defensive, it seems like you're inwardly bothered by the fact that GM is scumreading you and you're trying to encourage her to write it off as a joke.

P-P-Edit: GM: Find a new scum read I guess? Why are you not sure on KTS or Fire for today at this point btw? Like, what made you change your mind?

Same thing here, also the wink face looks out of place since it's repeated from before.

P-edit: GM: I knooooooow it's a hassle. Also, when did that claim happen?

Defensiveness again, you don't want to tell her to back off but you try and play down your anxieties.

GM: Wow yeah not sure how I missed that.

KTS: Mate, I hate to break it to you, but it pretty much was. At least to me it seemed that way.

P-edit: I vaguely remember you saying you thought meta was unreliable and yet you're using it here on gob.

Analysing what people might do is useless in the long run.

Meta is easily changed and crafted. It isn't something that's used to hunt scum. That'd why Analysing who might do what is useless.

So I wasn't misremembering things. What do you have to say on this in relation to your reasoning to your gob scumread?

These seem really focused on KTS and in retrospect probably were used to take attention away from Fire.

I disagree with the Alch read in Post 328

What don't you agree with?

Do you have a town read on him?

Yes.
Can you explain to me what is so anti-town about Post 222?

My reads are Alchemist Scum
You town
Vendith town

other people idk

Any explanations for these reads?

Just noticed how defensive of Alchemist you are, this correlates with 412 where you specifically go out of your way to say that you disagree with Gray's Alchemist read when you're meant to be reading others.

i'm not really concerned w/ that

characterizing firebringer as "low hanging fruit" is pretty baseless and ridiculous though

maybe you should be

usually, but he is being a bit nonsensical this game

@goodmorning, Why are/were you scumreading CityElectric?

I had an initial bias against that slot because the previous player picked up his PM but didn't play, which is more likely to mean Scum.
Besides that, her reads post looked a little easy.

I am here and bored.

Anyone got questions for me?

Want my godlike insight?

I want for you to actually play the game.

Throw up a readslist or something.

@Gray: And why can't they be bussing? Also, did you explain your Alch read yet?

This is the first time I've heard someone say picking up the role PM then replacing is more likely to be scum. I've always viewed it as null like any other replace out unless I knew the player, and there's only 1 player I can think of whose replace-outs would actually be alignment indicative to me.

Alchemist soft defends City which is a bit odd considering how City was defending Alchemist before. I didn't even realize this until I went back through the thread but now it stands out to me a bit.

VOTE: Fire

I think I've milked my KTS vote for what it's worth, and Fire is looking scummier by the second.

This implies that you're trying to use your vote to pressure KTS and then vote for Fire later, but you didn't seem as if you originally intended to do this when you said that you had a stronger scumread on KTS than Fire. Also, this was around the point when you could've decided to bus him, since it didn't look like the rest of the town were going to let Fire go.

@Warped: Post 543 came from a place of very tired annoyance, but it's essentially saying the same thing Anti is saying in Post 572 albeit poorly worded. Same goes for Post 569. I'm not scumreading Ved for moving of Fire, I'm slightly scumreading her for asking for a counterwagon but not naturally trying to push one herself after she moved off Fire. That is what felt scummy to me.

I don't even get how that's scummy, I think scum would probably have an actual mislynch target that they would accuse instead of someone if they didn't want the current target lynched (e.g. KTS ).

Yeah, I seriously don't like Ved's interactions with Fire.

VOTE: Vedith

I'd make a more convincing case if I wasn't feeling like I'm gonna be sick soon.

This feels opportunistic since I just said that Vedith was scum in my first post and you didn't really give detailed reasoning why you thought he was scum. Also, my reasoning for Vedith being scum was partially wrong because I mistook there were only 2 scum not 3 at that time.

And then I lost concentration so there's probably more stuff that I missed in there, blah blah I also agree with what GM just said, etc.

Also, ronit replacing out after he read his role PM is bad but my case doesn't really need that if it makes you feel any better.

In conclusion City is scummy mostly for fence-sitting / accusing people for weak reasons / backtracking and there's also a link between City and Alchemist. To be honest Alchemist looks pretty town to me on his own but that's just something I noticed, anyway.

[Expedience]

City is a tone read. It's not a strong read, but the tone comes off as Town to me.

Can you explain this in way more detail?

[Expedience]

Expedience, I'm looking at that City case you just posted. You say City looks scummy for backtracking and not wanting to commit to stances or make a lot of scumreads, but then you say later on that Vedith doesn't look scummy for not pushing a counterwagon that he asked for. I don't get how you can scumread City for that sort of thing and not Vedith when Vedith specifically avoided the fire wagon.

They're not really comparable scenarios. I don't really think that Vedith was being inconsistent / backtracking by not voting someone else after he unvoted because he never really showed any desire to lynch anyone else. I would, however, say that this was fence-sitting to some extent. He seemed to express less of a desire to lynch someone else, but more of a desire to not lynch Fire because he only actually said that he wanted another wagon (not specifying on who) once:

Can we not make a second wagon as it's looking way too easy this wagon.

This looks pretty rhetorical and doesn't even have a question mark.

But he questioned lynching Fire multiple times:

I don't recall many legit reasons either.

So everyone remind me, why are you voting FB? Is it because you have actual scum reads, or are you just following Anti?
I can see this as a who screams the loudest...

Also, this wagon is too easy.

I'm not saying a bad lynch as so, but I'm saying that Anti just decided he was scum then everyone seems to have joined in or voted him for his high posting.
I'm sure that at least 1 other person has put forward a reason but I can't remember, and I'd like each person to give a read rather than his posting is erratic. If it seems strong enough I'll join it.

So I think that there was more focus on not lynching Fire than lynching another person, and that he hadn't really thought so far ahead as to another lynch target when he questioned the Fire wagon. Therefore I don't think he can be labeled as not committing to a stance because there wasn't much of an indication that he was even trying to give a stance in the first place.

Vedith's attempt to derail the Fire wagon at least seemed somewhat transparent, so I feel that it is less likely to make him scum than City. It is scummy, I agree with you there, but I think that City is scummier. The fact that City voted on Vedith at the start of the day also made me less willing to lynch him, and makes me think that only one of the two are scum.

tl;dr because I don't think I expressed that well: Vedith didn't ask for the counterwagon very much, so he isn't scummy for not pushing it. He's scummy for trying to derail the Fire wagon, but not as scummy as City.

Looking at what you quoted, it's not hard to see why she would have pushed KTS over fire if she thought KTS was scummier, and I think her pushing her stronger scumread does look Townier than Vedith's "I'll wait and see" attitude towards the Fire wagon.

Yeah, I agree with the first bit. At the start she seemed to have a scumread on KTS, albeit for bad reasons. But the thing I thought was worse was how after she got called out for it, she seemed to shift her stance so that it was just a pressure vote, attempting to create the notion she was perfectly happy with voting for Fire and that was her plan all along (and she eventually did vote for Fire).

[Expedience]

Spoiler: Small addition to the City case

this wagon is too easy.

ooooooooh snap

On a more serious note, Vedith's hesistance to the FB lynch moves her right back out of the town pile. Also I definitely have a scum read on Fire, regardless of Anti's read on him. I'm a big girl, I can use my own brain (No but seriously his posts look scummy as hell because there's very little actually in them)

This isn't a good reason to scumread Fire and hence looks like bussing to me.

Also, ika, I would really appreciate it if you didn't impulse hammer Vedith because I think he's likely to be town, thanks.

[Expedience]

VOTE: CityElectric

We should've done this yesterday. This vote is for reasons that I've already outlined.

[Expedience]

Also, for the record, I think the other scum is Alchemist. And hm, this is getting a bit stagnant.

[Expedience]

I think the mafia have been trying to kill masons, because these are the kills that makes the most sense (removing confirmed town members, rather than vanilla townies). The GM kill was most likely because ika asked GM if she wanted to be a mason with him. Because of this, I think that ika was killed because scum thought he was a mason. There wasn't much other reasoning behind killing ika, he was being a bit scummy in my opinion.

Looking at this post, it appears that Grayfoxxxx thinks that ika is a mason. It's fairly clear to me that he wasn't a mason, or at least that his mason claim was irrelevant to his role. Therefore, I think that Grayfoxxxx killed ika because he incorrectly believed that he was a mason.

This, coupled with my preexisting scumread of Grayfoxxxx for inactivity (which GM showed does very likely relate to alignment) makes me think that Grayfoxxxx is scum.

As for the other scum, I'd say either Alchemist or Killthestory.

[Expedience]

The speed of that wagon yesterday is appalling. I think at least one scum, probably both, were on it.

Was it? You were online the evening of Oct 1st. BBT only locked the thread towards midnight. You never said anything then but now it is "appaling?"

For the time I was online that day I decided I wanted to go back through some ISO's. I was actually going through your ISO and when I was finished she was hammered. I was appalled by it then as well but didn't say anything then because it would have been just an emotional rant that would have left me feeling shittier than I was already feeling irl.

See, I don't really buy this, going off your post history.

Alchemist last posts in other games at

30 Sep 2015, 02:04

.
Day 3 starts at

30 Sep 2015, 15:54

.
Alchemist makes 5 posts in other games, starting at

01 Oct 2015, 18:35

and ending at

01 Oct 2015, 20:31

.
While Alchemist was posting in other games, Killthestory hammered CityElectric at

01 Oct 2015, 19:14

.
Day 3 ends at

02 Oct 2015, 02:28

.

Personally, I don't see it as very likely that Alchemist spent all the time from 8:30pm to 2:30am going back through ISO's without making a post in the thread. It looks more likely to me that it is a form of avoidance; not posting in the thread so that he can come back the next day and accuse those who did post. It's a lot easier for Alchemist to say that the wagon was too fast if he isn't even on it, and claims to have had no opportunity to slow it down.

[Expedience]

Actually, rereading that, I misrepresented you there. You did say that you finished going through his ISO after Killthestory hammered and before the day ended, so I'm sorry about mistaking that.

However, my point stands. I don't really feel that your claim to have been avoiding posting after the hammer because it would be "an emotional rant" is valid. You don't seem like a particularly emotional person from the rest of your posts, and I don't think that a town member would have such qualms about sharing their opinions. I think that this is an excuse for avoiding posting after the hammer, for fear of looking bad and to get better things with which to accuse people with today. I also think that you were afraid of giving a stance too similar to Grayfoxxxx, who said this:

That was fast...

I would also like to mention that I don't like Gray's reaction to the City lynch either, it seemed like he was trying to do a similar thing with 841 to what Alchemist is doing now.

[Expedience]

Luna and Shadow look Town to me. Individually, Gray looks Town, but his scum % skyrockets if KTS flips scum.

I don't really like this reasoning. In the event of an Alchemist / Gray scumteam, if you got KTS lynched, then you would have an excuse to townread Gray. I also feel that your earlier explanation for your inactivity near to the lynch was weak and fake.

Both of the current wagons really do not appeal to me, let's start a better one. Gray's reasoning for finding shadowdez scummy is pretty bad, to be honest. I can also see motive for scum to each try and push a different counterwagon.

VOTE: Alchemist

[Expedience]

Right now I'm assuming one scum on, and one scum off of the wagon. There could be two on the wagon, just because of how fast the day was.

So that leaves Alch as the scum off of the wagon.

Im assuming final scum is between warped, gobbed, and shadowz. Warped only because he started the wagon, but he is the weakest scum read of mine. It's a toss up between shaddowez and gob.

If there was 2 scum on the wagon, these two are my best bet as buddies.

I'm more comfortable with a shadows lynch atm. His lurking, and being right in the middle of the last mislynch makes me think he's scum.

You make a lot of weird assumptions to try and justify your conclusion, for example:
There isn't necessarily one scum on and one scum off the wagon.
The final scum isn't necessarily between Warped / gob / shadowdez.
Shadowdez's being in the middle of the last mislynch isn't necessarily scummy (or, at least, you give no reason why you think it is).

Honestly, it just feels like you faked PoE logic and then accused shadowdez randomly for lurking and being in the middle of the last mislynch, which are very vague accusations.

And if you'd already assumed that Alchemist was scum (although when you say "If there was 2 scum on the wagon", it makes me think you weren't), why aren't you voting for him? It's really weird, as if you'd chosen to call him out as scum but then later ignored him. Could be a bus / attempt at distancing in my eyes.

[Expedience]

So the first part of your reply says you dont like that im not 100% on my analysis.
Those are my scum reads, i never said they are "necessarily" anything. Im going off the rest of the game though.

I know, but that's not what I have a problem with. When you try to use a process of elimination to work out who is scum, it's important to start from premises which you are confident are true. If you don't give any reasoning behind your beliefs, how are we to trust that the conclusions you draw make any sense? I look at your conclusion, I disagree with it, I try to find reasoning behind it, and all I see is more unexplained assumptions.

How is assuming 2 are on the wagon wierd? I dont get this.

It's weird because you previously said that you thought there was one scum on the wagon. I think I missed the "if" part though so that threw me off, your comment does make sense on a reread.

Shadowz isnt "randomly" lurking. He is lurking. There has been plenty of time to give something meaningful.

I said that your accusation was random, not shadowdez's lurking.

I havent ignored alch at all. What are you talking about?

You said you thought there was one scum on and one scum off yesterday's wagon, and that immediately lead you to believe that Alchemist was scum because he was the only other living person off the lynch. You didn't mention him again, and didn't vote for him. This seemed odd, but I can consider that perhaps you weren't as certain about there being one scum on the lynch as you were certain about shadowdez being scum.

Why did you vote the way you did yesterday? Was it "necessary"?

I voted rather arrogantly, because I was confident that CityElectric was scum. I didn't think that further discussion was necessary, but evidently I was wrong. I should've gone more slowly, and at the very least waited for City to return.

I suggested it wasnt a good lynch, and before I could get any reads out, BOOM the day is over.

I'm pretty sure you never actually suggested it wasn't a good lynch. You did say you wanted to reevaluate things, but you could've done more to stop it rather than just watching it from the sidelines. I guess technically you did imply that the lynch was bad because you said you wanted to look over things, but that's kinda implicit.

And how can I vote for 2 people at once? Im fine with my vote where it is. Shadowz has done nothing but be scummy.

I can see why you voted for shadowdez, because you thought he was scummier than Alchemist. I originally was confused because your earlier post seemed like it should've lead you to the conclusion that Alchemist was scummier.

Sorry if it comes across as being a Jerk, but I cant stand when lurkers get defended so late in the game. There are no PRs. So there is no reason withhold reads. Unless you are scum.
Gob is now lurking...

Well, he replaced out now so it's probably not alignment indicative anyway. Your vote change reflects that you thought this, which is good.

I think to some extent I missed your point in your previous paragraph about the wagons because the reasoning was a bit disjointed. It makes more sense when I reread it. I think I read the "if there were 2 scum on the wagon" bit as meaning that you thought there were two scum on the wagon, which clashed with when you said you thought there was only one scum on the wagon. I also have a possibly irrational bias against this kind of townhunting PoE thing in the first place.

[Expedience]

Luna and Shadow look Town to me. Individually, Gray looks Town, but his scum % skyrockets if KTS flips scum.

I don't really like this reasoning. In the event of an Alchemist / Gray scumteam, if you got KTS lynched, then you would have an excuse to townread Gray. I also feel that your earlier explanation for your inactivity near to the lynch was weak and fake.

Both of the current wagons really do not appeal to me, let's start a better one. Gray's reasoning for finding shadowdez scummy is pretty bad, to be honest. I can also see motive for scum to each try and push a different counterwagon.

VOTE: Alchemist

The first reason of yours looks like fitting evidence to match the reads. You're assuming my post is a result of me neing scum with Gray. Show me why KTS and Gray can't be scum together.

You're right, that was a very confirmation bias-y comment. If you genuinely believed KTS and Gray were scum together your statement would make an equal amount of sense. However, I haven't really noticed any links between the two anyway.

If you think the explanation for my inactivity looks fake, you can see in my posting history that I was away from the site Friday and all weekend. Real life stuff was going down, whether you want to accept that fact or not.

You still made 5 posts in other games while the thread was unlocked, so you can't have been that inactive.

[Expedience]

@Alch, Don't try to solve the whole puzzle. Townbeards can fuck it up.

Why are you sure GB is town?

I'll run KTS/Grey in my VCA.


Gob's a gut read based on Heartless/Anti and VCA.

I don't really want to go into the reasoning unless someone twists my arm about it, but I'm pretty confident he's Town.

The only reason that I can think of why you wouldn't want to go into the reasoning would be if you were reading them as mason. And since that's the only real possibility, if you were town, it'd be really obvious to the scum that you're meaning this. So I'd just suggest you give your opinion, there are more upsides than downsides.

[Expedience]

I mentioned this in an earlier post, but Gray staying off both the Fire and KTS wagons makes a lot of sense if all three of them are the scumteam.

I've looked, and I simply cannot find this. Could you clarify which earlier post you meant?

[Expedience]

I mentioned this in an earlier post, but Gray staying off both the Fire and KTS wagons makes a lot of sense if all three of them are the scumteam.

I've looked, and I simply cannot find this. Could you clarify which earlier post you meant?

Neither Gob nor KTS said much about City before voting her and on first look both votes look pretty bad. However...

VOTE: Vedith

Vedith is scum no question.

City is definitly the scum here. Followed by Gray probably.

VOTE: CityElectric

I find it hard to believe any scum votes like this on 2 Town lynches in a row. The entire manner in which Gob's played this game is also contributing to my read, but I'm not sure I can or should go into detail about that part right now.

Additionally, if KTS is scum, her posts regarding Gob make me think they're unlikely to be partners.

Ultimately, I think Gob is Town and KTS is scum.

@Gob, this is the main basis of my scumread on her. Added to that is how her early play developed where she started out really confrontational but then eased up on it. The attitude shif itself could come from both alignments, but since then she did fall off the radar.

Additionally, the main reason why I think Gray could be scum with her is how he handled the top 2 wagons on D1. If he was scum with Fire, it would make sense if he bussed or pushed a CW, but he didn't. It would really explain why he didn't though if KTS is scum and he didnn't want to bus either of them.

Ah, thanks. I don't really think it's that strong of a link, because it relies on both of them being scum. I think this example makes a lot more sense if Gray is town, actually.

[Expedience]

Hello

Hi!

I don't like how Alchemist has had his vote parked on a player that was super inactive today..

Why does this bother you? I personally think a town member should vote for someone who they suspect, regardless of that player's activity.

No intent just a statement.

Intent to hammer Alchemist, I assume? Good, I'd prefer nobody hammered until closer to the deadline given what happened on d3.

[Expedience]

Titus / Scorpious / Not_Mafia, thoughts on Grayfox?

[Expedience]

Spoiler: large readwall

Kinda starting to feel disengaged so I'll post reads, I don't see why not to do this if I have time and it will help the town a bit if I get killed at night.

name	read	explanation
ika	null	Still null like before, he's gone inactive as of recently and he's not posting that much. I don't really know how I feel about the Mason claim, I guess he's just messing around like he apparently usually does but silly fakeclaims make me uneasy.
Warped	town	Really liked his entrance, there's not anything else I can judge him based on. Idk if it should be a slight-town instead of town but this read could change after he posts more.
Vedith	slight-scum	I mean, he's saying some town stuff, but I just get a bad feeling about him. It's a gut thing which is hard to explain, but if I were to try and quantify it, I would say that he is more cheerful this game than in other games I have read. I also don't really like the "this lynch is too easy" thing in 566, because he practically invalidated his own point by trying to make it harder... It also restates what Grayfoxxxx has already said in 492. I'm going to contradict Warped here and say that scum would quite happily attempt to derail a lynch on either town or scum if it meant that it made them look more town or saved a scumpartner (depending on Firebringer's alignment). There's also WIFOM here as well, so I don't really think motives can be used to show alignment.
goodmorning	town	Pretty involved in discussion, and showing thought process which seems really legitimate to me. I don't think scum could fake being this pro-town in this many posts.
shaddowez	town	Mostly reading him as town because of Luna, shaddowez hasn't really stood out to me that much.
Killthestory	null	I don't really know what her meta is so I can't judge the aggression or the argument thing accurately. She looks like she's scumhunting, however I stand by what I said before about her reaching. I'm still unsure if this is alignment indicative. A lot of weird and in my opinion unjustified focus on gob, too.
gob	slight-town	My townread weakened slightly, he seems to blend in for me and I'm not really noticing him a lot.
Alchemist21	slight-town	He's asking a lot of good questions and his posts look like there is thought put into them.
Expedience	town	Me.
Antihero	town	I didn't really like him a lot at the start but I get what he's doing now a lot more and I like the direction that he's pushing the town.
CityElectric	scum	I agree a lot with what everyone else is saying basically. Also, I don't like to be meta like this but I agree with GM the fact that ronit replaced after seeing his role PM is likely alignment indicative.
GrayFoxxxx	slight-scum	492 is kinda off. "low hanging fruit" is a buzzphrase thing that I don't like much, this sounds like an excuse to be contrary and and maybe an excuse not to vote Killthestory / Firebringer who could be scumbuddies.
Firebringer	scum	Already said why, would rather watch him get hammered than write about him more.

Has thus readwall ever been disproven?

Well, ika, Vedith and City flipped town despite me reading them as scum. Keep in mind that my stance changed in some cases, this was just what I thought on d1.

[Expedience]

UNVOTE:

For now, whatever. We don't have much time, so I'll place this vote where it should be soon enough. Titus, I think you're town even from how I view Luna alone, but I honestly don't think you should trust the judgement of Antihero simply because he was right in a previous game.

I'm still not entirely convinced that KTS' aggression was alignment indicative, do you think it was? She seems more focused on being "bitchy" than playing the game, but this is also something that town could do. This is really the main reason that I null-read KTS earlier, I can't decide whether or not it's a scum attempt to look like they're scumhunting.

Something that I did notice on a reread of her ISO which supports KTS being scum is 388, specifically "I'm not actually angry nor mean. It's an effective way to scumhunt.", which seems apologetic and as if she's trying to protect herself from being scumread, as if she'd just dismissively said "oh i was just scumhunting nvm".

Titus has a hardone for me every game.. True story ,and is like always wrong..also true

This isn't very convincing, because you are being scumread less for your actions but for those of whom you replaced. I also don't like your Titus vote, it seems too retaliative to be because you're genuinely scumreading that slot.

[Expedience]

@Experience, it's not one game. Heartless and their individual heads are scary good as town. In Signs and Void it was near impossible to fool them. Look through the bulk of their games. Very rarely are they fooled as town early.

If you take his comment as fully endorsing those reads, he was already proven wrong by Vedith and City flipping, so that's not really a valid argument. I guess this was what you were asking earlier. And it's not for sure that he was agreeing with every read, maybe just some of them.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you about Scorpious, I just don't think that Antihero's comment in relation to my reads strongly supports Scorpious being scum.

[Expedience]

This isn't very convincing, because you are being scumread less for your actions but for those of whom you replaced. I also don't like your Titus vote, it seems too retaliative to be because you're genuinely scumreading that slot.

yeah,this sucks too. You're basically saying my vote is OMGUS even though I stated my discomfort with this slot before it voted me..

weak..

You did state your discomfort, but you didn't say why at the time which I don't really like because I disagree with you. If anything, reading Firebringer's ISO would lead me to townread that slot, not scumread it. You also only decided to vote for Titus after she voted you, so her vote must've been the deciding factor in your decision to vote. Your vote is OMGUS, I guess, but I try to avoid using acronyms like that to describe things whenever possible.

[Expedience]

Think for yourself,dont be moved by a really good player.

I don't see how the fact that I disagree with you means I'm not thinking for myself.

you are doing exactly what she wants you to do..

Yes, but is that necessarily bad if Titus is town (which I believe)?

I'm actually ok with it,cause I'm town.. My lynch would make her day 5 very interesting.

Now you claim to be okay with being lynched? That's not the impression that you're giving with your posts, by trying to invoke fear in me and throw suspicion onto Titus / I. This feels like scum!Scorpious taking advice to "play it cool", and act as if being lynched doesn't really bother you, except you've gone about it quite obviously.

I feel like you are the best lynch for today.

VOTE: Scorpious

[Expedience]

Where would I be getting advice?

has daytalk been confirmed in this game?or did you just slip?

Uh, in night chat??? Not necessarily even that, it could be general advice given to players. I've never been scum on this site, but I've picked up things about scum being more afraid of lynches / more defensive just from people talking in the game threads.

No part of my statement implies that I believe that the Mafia have daytalk, I checked the OP and it says that there isn't, as well:

Factional communication: During the night phase you may talk with your partners here.

[Expedience]

I would say that Scorpious attempted to fake a townslip by making that comment, he wants us to think that he doesn't know that scum don't have daytalk because he's town. The fact that he decided to bring this up out of nowhere, conjuring up a non-existent slip as an excuse to feign ignorance of the lack of scum daytalk, should lead everyone to the conclusion that it isn't a real townslip.

[Expedience]

You are the worst scum ever Ex lol..

please explain how I would have gotten advice in night chat.. I didn't exist in this game until today..

want to try again,I'm keeping my vote on Titus because she is far more dangerous than you. You are terrible lol

I said you were "taking advice", not being given advice specifically in night chat. You also could've read what your predecessor and scumpartners said in night chat, and taken advice given to / from them.

[Expedience]

I wanted to make a larger post but I have an exam and not that much time right now. I'll just leave an accusation fragment below (the stuff that's at the top of my mind) and get to it after the exam tomorrow when I will have more time.

Spoiler: partial accusation

I think Alchemist is scum, and Gray is town. I can't decide between Warped and Titus being the last scum but I'll try to do so.

Alchemist has been scumreading me pretty much all game, yet has only kept a vote on me for a short period during d1 (from 161 to 238). He claims to suspect me previously in 159 161, 214, 811, 818, 854, so he's clearly been suspecting me from the very start. Yet, he does not retain a vote on me at any other time than the short period on d1 (during which I presume he decided that I would be better to save for later).

This supports the idea of him keeping me as an "investment mislynch", which he can cash in at LyLo for an easy victory. He doesn't care about finding and lynching those he finds scummy as soon as possible, but would rather wait for the opportune time to make a proper push.

In 921, he claims to be mason reading Gob. This is scummy, because scum are more likely to look for and notice masons than town. What makes this worse is that we know from the kill choices that the scum have been trying to kill masons and therefore have been looking for them (from the ika kill where he claimed mason, and the other 3 kills hit masons). The fact that he chose to reveal that he thought Gob was mason doesn't mean anything because of WIFOM.

I am more confident about Alchemist being scum, so that's where my vote would be if it wasn't currently LyLo.

[Expedience]

I think Alchemist is scum, and Gray is town. I think Titus is unlikely to be scum if Alchemist is, therefore I think the scumteam is Alchemist / Warped. Otherwise it's probably Titus / Warped, but I'm going all in on Alchemist / Warped.

Spoiler: stuff I already wrote about Alchemist

Alchemist has been scumreading me pretty much all game, yet has only kept a vote on me for a short period during d1 (from 161 to 238). He claims to suspect me previously in 159, 161, 214, 811, 818, 854, so he's clearly been suspecting me from the very start. Yet, he does not retain a vote on me at any other time than the short period on d1 (during which I presume he decided that I would be better to save for later).

This supports the idea of him keeping me as an "investment mislynch", which he can cash in at LyLo for an easy victory. He doesn't care about finding and lynching those he finds scummy as soon as possible, but would rather wait for the opportune time to make a proper push.

In 921, he claims to be mason reading Gob. This is scummy, because scum are more likely to look for and notice masons than town. What makes this worse is that we know from the kill choices that the scum have been trying to kill masons and therefore have been looking for them (from the ika kill where he claimed mason, and the other 3 kills hit masons). The fact that he chose to reveal that he thought Gob was mason doesn't mean anything because of WIFOM.

I've been finding it difficult to decide on this and I feel that my stance has wavered a lot over previous days, but I think Grayfox is town.

In 492, he said "I'm more comfortable with a fire lynch if it really came down to those 2." This really doesn't feel like bussing to me, it just seems way too subtle and wouldn't pay off at all if nobody noticed it. He did push for a Vedith lynch instead of a Fire one, but I accept his reasoning for doing so. The Fire lynch likely was too easy, and makes me think that there was at least some bussing or scum resistance. Vedith said a similar thing, too.

The N_M kill doesn't make sense after Gray said that he was scumreading that slot. If he was scum and was scumreading N_M because he thought he was mislynchable then he could've tried to push that tomorrow, and if he was mason reading N_M then he likely wouldn't have claimed to scumread him in the first place (because why would scum want to accuse potential conftown?).

I also can't see links to place Gray as a hypothetical scumpartner of anyone either, it just doesn't add up.

The only way that some of what Gray has said can be consistent with him being scum is if he's making subtle WIFOM tricks, and I don't feel that this is an assertion we can afford to make at this point.



In regards to Warped: I think he's been playing pretty solid so far but he's scum by PoE.

It's actually really annoying that he was inactive around the time that Scorpious was lynched, I keep having this wrong perception of him hiding in the shadows while the town implode and I have to remind myself that he wasn't able to post for a few days.

Day 4, Alchemist comes across as the most genuine like he's really trying to figure out the game. His thoughts on Gob's motivations and possibility for Gob being scum with KTS show that. Same with Titus. I'm pretty confident it is Exp and Gray.

Just going to wait for everyone to chime in.

This seems like an oversimplification of the situation and I disagree with it. His description of Alchemist as "genuine like he's really trying to figure out the game" is vague and highly subjective. The way that he lumps Titus into that category as well without justification is not a town mindset, scum consider things in terms of who they will attempt to mislynch (black and white, "defend titus and push exp / gray"), while the town wouldn't be so sure going into LyLo, especially in this situation where I actually was pretty daunted coming into today and trying to work out the scum.




Titus pretty much bailed out Alchemist yesterday with a lot of confidence, which was abrupt and made me doubt myself a lot. Might not have been the intention though.

Titus cannot be scum if Alchemist is scum due to her large amount of suspicion of N_M in posts 907, 913 and 923. Alchemist's mason read on Gob was based on interactions during d1. Therefore, he surely would've voiced it during n1 chat with shadowdez. Titus would've read it when she replaced in, and been careful not to push Gob too hard because he could become conftown.

She even votes N_M in 943 after Alchemist said he was mason reading Gob which shows that she doesn't agree with this, and if they were both scum then she might have taken it as a warning to be careful with N_M (by restating it, he would be sending the message that he was very sure about Gob being mason).

Therefore, that rules out the argument of Titus defending Alchemist because he was her scumpartner.

Luna and Fire interactions looked pretty townlike to me, honestly. That's why I was really confused when Scorpious started saying the opposite (in 934 and 961):

@ Alc, from the time Luna left(which Fire asked "wth?",when it happened).he all of a sudden went to that slot being scummy,coupled with what seems to me as just an absolutely terrible read in #176 on Luna as well..

I don't agree with this still. If anything, 176 makes me townread Titus' slot because Fire gave (I can only assume deliberately) weird / bad reads on pretty much everyone in that list. I think it's null though.

For example: 66 probably isn't bussing / distancing because it's not overblown or melodramatic like how I expect bussing / distancing to be. It's not a particularly reserved / withdrawn remark either, it seems to sound how Fire usually talks. I think it was more used by Fire to look town by making discussion on playstyles / etc. than anything else.



I am most confident about Warped being scum now actually, so that's where my vote would be. Not necessarily because he's more scummy than Alchemist, but because he's the common denominator of the two possible scum pairings that I consider most likely. I think it's always best to vote the common denominator even if the secondary pairing looks unlikely because tunneling happens a lot.

[Expedience]

@Exp, good luck on your exam.

Thanks, it went pretty well.

My daughter decided to me born a month early tonight. :')
Gotta vla for 4 days.

That's great news, have a nice break.

[Expedience]

I've read D1 and I'm more confident that Expedience is scum. His readslist here is probably the biggest indication of this.

To add to my townread on Expedience, the reads list he posted towards the end of D1 was pretty similar to how I was reading the game so that strengthens the townread as well.

._. ?

[Expedience]

@ GM, why do you have an obvtown read on ika?

This probably explains why the scum killed ika after they killed GM. I think Warped mason fished here. But only after the Anti and GM flips did he realize its significance and decide to kill ika.

The way he town reads ika on the basis of him being a mason in 601 is also weird in itself because it means he's overly conscious of looking out for who the masons are. I've been playing the game and focusing way more on who the scum are, I don't think I've looked at any posts and tried to see if it's from a mason perspective.

That's the spirit, City and Exo!

My bet is that at least 1 scum jumped on the wagon when it was basically set in stone.

CityElectric, Warped, ika Last 3 to vote on him. I would go with at least 1 scum here.

Warped wasn't finding me scummy for questioning the wagon. It's standard that as scum I would play like that, as I didn't really take a stance on him being scum or town. 582 Asking what my motivation is... The simple answer in theory is that I want to draw focus away from a scum member. Unless Warped is an alt that has played with me before, why would he not give the option of it being a save? If he is scum, 601 I can't see him throwing the other scum member under the bus, so I would expect GM or City to both be cleared.
Continuing with 601 He says if he is wrong with FB, then Gob, Ika, KTS and Gray would basically be back up for review (easy distraction away from focusing them later?)
His comment on Gob would suggest to me more of a null rather than a town lean, I'm not sure how not scum hunting and dodging questions is a town lean?
If Warped flipped scum I would like Gob as the last scum.

It's all ifs and buts, however, I'm not liking Warped on D1.

VOTE: Warped

If I were scum that bussed Firebringer, why would I argue down Antihero and say that you wouldn't go out of your way to defend Firebringer? The point of bussing is to get towncred and potentially mislynch townies who look like they could be partnered with the bussed scum.

And you are so sure about me that you automatically clear City and GM? And you've ignored that City not only hopped onto the Fire wagon in its late stages, she went so far as to tie you and Fire together and it is concerning that you've ignored that simply because you don't think City is partnered with me.

What exactly do you think my scum-motive is for suggesting that I will focus on 4 other people if I'm wrong on Fire just in case?

This is scummy because he's repeatedly trying to use motive to show his innocence, and there's WIFOM there. He could very easily argue down Antihero and suggest he focus on 4 other people if he's wrong on Fire, and then use this argument in his defense. And that's what I think he did.

I also agree with ika that he seemed a bit defensive here, but it's not a particularly strong point against him.

VOTE: unvote
VOTE: Firebringer

Lets just get rid of this kid so we can actually focus on the game here, 70+ posts and only about 6 are noteworthy.

This post makes me think Gob is town. Scum would be more inclined to call their partner scum for some semblance of towncred rather than hop onto the bus as essentially a policy lynch. His vote for forgettable which isn't normally what scum aim for with bus votes.

His reasons for townreading KTS match mine. I disagree with his read on Alchemist but attacking him for "tone" seems like it came from an honest place.

His withholding of early reads also looked town. So, I'm adding Gob into my townpile as well.

The first and third statements aren't good reasons for townreading Gob, because there's a lot of WIFOM in any player's motives (see also: Warped doing the same thing in his own defense in 641). This supports the idea of Warped townreading and killing Gob because he thought he was a mason, because the Gob townread looks fake.

[Expedience]

I think this needs to be pointed out:

Expedience has continuously been the only one pushing arguments than players are scum because of their mason reads. I can buy that Town expedience isn't one for Townhunting, but early in the game he supposedly learned that Townhunting is a legitimate playstyle, so common sense should tell him that Town can be looking for masons as well to develop strong Townreads. I think he's purposefully ignoring (or being scum has blinded him to) that common sense and that's why he's trying to pose these kinds of arguments.

Town hunting is not equivalent to mason hunting. While one might be able to townread people better by looking for masons, scum have more motive to look for masons than town do. Scum don't care about devoting effort towards developing their own townread on people, all they have to do is look at the reads of the town members. If they wasted time making reads and thought the town was misreading someone as scum when they should've been townread, scum wouldn't kill them. But to find masons they actually have to analyze interactions between town members. A mason can suddenly reveal and become confirmed town, while a townread VT will be more trusted steadily.

Since scum have more reason to look for masons than town, it is a scumtell. Also, reducing my argument to "because of their mason reads" is an oversimplification.

For the record, I'm pretty much ready to vote Expedience now, but I'm agreeing with Titus's request to wait until Gray's V/LA is over before voting as a courtesy to Gray.

Your confidence is unjustified here, there's not a strong enough case against me to warrant this kind of statement.

[Expedience]

A) It's obviously not a scumtell when you've pointed it out about 3 different players that are still alive amd there are only 2 scum left.

I used it to show you and Warped as scum, and to disprove an Alchemist / Titus scumteam. It's not as if I've accused 3 people of being scum based on this (unless I actually have in which case feel free to correct me?).

B) I'm not oversimplifying any argument, but your cases have involved this severely flawed argument, and I see it as you trying to distort facts to fit your fancy.

Maybe if you say it enough times with strong enough words it'll become true.

C) I think my confidence is completely justified. Every post you make digs your hole deeper.

What hole?

[Expedience]

Also if you'd like I can use that argument on myself too.

Also Gray, I don't see how 215 makes sense from the perspective of ika being Mason.

With 215 being:

i'm kinda' getting happy w/ tth's firebringer vote, ika

even though hes softing to be a mason right now?

Therefore why would I kill ika if I didn't think he was a mason? It's clear that scum have been trying to kill masons. Unless I'm part of the Illuminati WIFOM conspiracy with Gray who also brainwashed you and made you say that you thought gob was a mason and made Warped say he thought ika was a mason.

[Expedience]

I'm here. I was waiting on GrayFoxx.

If you're town, you should post as much content as possible during LyLo to find the scumteam. Which you're not doing. If you're scum, I'm sure Alchemist can find an extra chainsaw for you.

[Expedience]

(unless I actually have in which case feel free to correct me?).

Okay nvm I accused Gray of being scum in 857. This point stands, and I used other reasoning in 1032 (some of it the mason thing in the other direction) to outweigh this and show Gray as town. The mason reading point is not inherently flawed though, the only reason Gray doesn't fit it is because there are inconsistencies in his behavior. Like, he read ika in a way that I expected scum would. But then he read N_M in a town way. Meanwhile Warped reads both ika and N_M in a scum way.

Alchemist didn't claim to be mason reading ika at any point but he said other suspicious things which made me think that he was, like:

You expanded on your Ika-mason read, but that night GM died, not Ika. I'm thinking if you were scum thinking Ika was mason then Ika would have died first. There's also a chance scum silently agreed with you and killed Ika later.

I agree with Alchemist here, and believe that scum silently agreed with town!Gray and killed ika later.

Wait, scratch part of that bit about Warped. I had it written he was also mason-reading Ika and Ika wasn't killed. Let me see if I can find that post.

It was probably more nuanced than that though. I think the scum still read ika as mason, but had a better mason read on GM so killed her instead. Then after GM flipped town they decided to kill ika because he said that he would recruit GM as a mason.

Saying that he mason read Gob after I pressured him into saying so was kind of a slip on his part by saying that he didn't want to expand on his townread in the first place. He should've not let slip that he mason read Gob, like he managed to do with ika.

[Expedience]

I have every intention of refuting your points once GrayFoxxxx returns and Titus tells us where she's at. I've said my piece, Alch said his and you said yours. I want to hear from other two.

The only reason for me to engage you

before

they return is if I have a sudden revelation that you're town and want you to reconsider which I haven't.

Okay, that sounds fine.

[Expedience]

You've gotta do better than that, Titus. Alchemist has been exceedingly town in the last page and Expedience's arguments have me more convinced that he's scum. I'm wavering between you and GrayFoxxxx so if you can help me get a better read on you, that'll be helpful. So far, you haven't committed at all and kept all your options open.

What changed between 1012 and this post? You seem a lot more confident there than you do here. This also comes conveniently after I called out Alchemist for seeming too confident, so it looks to me like you're acting unsure to appear like you're still working out the game.

[Expedience]

Also, I want to see Gray or Titus throw down a vote first. That'll help me get a much more solid read on both of them.

Or it'll help you win by quickhammering... Please nobody vote yet, just say who you suspect or something.

[Expedience]

Why are you reading Gray as town?

I explained this in 1032.

Why aren't you worried about Titus's lack of committing?

It bothers me a bit, but not as much as Alchemist being so confident. Titus doesn't seem to reveal her reasoning behind her opinions a lot of the time but I'm sure it's still there. Her lack of commitment seems more like genuine indecision to me, because she committed enough to say that she thought it was either Alchemist / Warped or Expedience / Gray. I think that an apparent lack of commitment isn't particularly scummy in LyLo anyway because it's very important that we choose the right lynch today and helpful skepticism can easily be misinterpreted as unwillingness to commit.

[Expedience]

There's not really any benefit to rushing things if Gray isn't here yet. If you look in his post history he posted a prod dodge in another game earlier today, so he'll be active soon enough I hope.

[Expedience]

VOTE: Warped

[Expedience]

Scum would have hammered by now and I'm not scum.

Note the converse, Gray. If you're town, Warped has to be scum or else scum would've already hammered you.

[Expedience]

GrayFoxxx has two votes. If Expedience isn't hammering, that confirms that he and GrayFoxxxx are the team. Glad I was right.

I don't see Titus hammering either. And what would stop 2 scum from hammering earlier if town!Warped was hypothetically voting town!Gray?

[Expedience]

Well, I guess I was wrong. ;-;

[Expedience]

Well yeah. I was pretty convinced that it was going to be Alchemist / Warped, nice work scum on getting themselves on both sides of the divide.