Open 627: Mexican Standoff [endgame]

[Xtoxm]

VOTE: Townie247

[Xtoxm]

VOTE: smugder

[Xtoxm]

Yes, also didn't like the reason for voting EE..I don't know why two of you have sheeped it. EE has been one of the better posters so far.

[Xtoxm]

Checking in, post tomorrow.

[Xtoxm]

Current preferred lynches would be Smudger/Anen/Mad King. There are others I could compromise on, and others i'd be less enthusiastic to. I won't go into my town reads right now.

[Xtoxm]

Welcome 50. I owe you a not-lynching on D1. You replaced a scummy slot however, so you're going to need you to do something town.

VOTE: Anen

My Anen read is based on not liking a handful of his comments combined with a healthy dose of meta. Things like voting and unvoting Pers in #261 i'm not really buying, just looks to me like he's trying to fake stream of consciousness. I don't have a scum meta on Anen but I do have a good amount of town, and his play here is very different to what I was expecting from town-Anen..So it follows that this is more likely to be his scum play. Certainly good enough for me to support for D1.

[Xtoxm]

No it's not. SI joined the site 3 days ago, and that is the only post he made anywhere other than a signup. Absence/Flaking isn't scummy.

[Xtoxm]

We're getting close to deadline, we need to get a decent strength wagon going so we have time to bumrush elsewhere if needed.

I have a good number of people I'm not interested in wagoning but I can go anywhere else. More when I get to my pc.

[Xtoxm]

I am scumreading both owners of that slot, but I did promise to go easy on 50. If it takes off, I'll help.

[Xtoxm]

Yes.

[Xtoxm]

Sunset KT Dave and Kurio work for me.

I don't have town feels for any of them, that is if you can't join me on EE.

~Titus

VOTE: Dave

Not interested in the empty slot. Not enthusiastic about KT either.

[Xtoxm]

I like Kurio's 82, and his stances on SI and KT.

[Xtoxm]

And other than calling you the best lynch his last post was fine.

[Xtoxm]

Do you two really believe you've nailed all scum on D1 or are you intentionally talking out your asses?

[Xtoxm]

Don't really care for Dave's heavy softing, a hardclaim would be more convincing. He's basically softed power in response to becoming the primary wagon whilst keeping things vague, which only really favours scum given how obvious he's made it. Forcing him into a hardclaim means if he's scum he may get countered at some point or claim something unsustainable, which is basically our goal for today, we're probably only going to lynch scum today if it's without a claim. He may be town but the way he's gone about it doesn't really look town (what 50 did is the town way), so i'd like to stay on to get a hardclaim out of him before moving back to Anen. If he's town I don't think there's any detriment to having him expand. I could also go Mad King, don't trust him and 540 reads too informed for my liking. Texcat is a low priority compromise of those 3 that i'd do if I have to.

[Xtoxm]

Lynch me for being too good. But if you're lynching me for being too good you're agreeing to follow my reads when I flip town because clearly if I'm that good my reads are that good!

Deal!

Do you have any further reads to add since #612 on top of "Kuroi could be scum I guess"?

[Xtoxm]

Quick note:

Anen scumread is growing weaker.
I've had Titus as town and I think I still do, but her recent posts are making me sad b/c I can't follow the thought: Calling Dave obvtown when he's objectively scummy, flipping to scumread on Anen based on posts that are having the opposite effect on me
Liking chilled's entrance.
People who have failed to make an impact since the Dave/50 events are becoming more attractive lynch options (kop/kuroi/kt/fs)

I'll find a better vote after sleep.

[Xtoxm]

VOTE: Kuroi

[Xtoxm]

Preview Edit-Xtoxm: Thank you, sir. I do, however, think I'd appreciate a reason. For some reason, I don't think you'd just vote me because some people gave you reasons and you've suddenly changed your mind.

No, the influence they've had on my vote is only in the capacity of showing me there is ground support for it.

I was townreading you early on and pushed the wagon away from you but your play since has been totally flat. I still have a good level of paranoia over MKA and I can lynch him, but his response to the claims/softing at least appears to be town whereas yours does not, and it feels better voting here. You seem to have lost steam as we moved into the important part of the day, your reaction to 50s claim is to call him scum and you seem to still be maintaining that, reading things so differently (and likely wrong) is scummy in itself. For the most part you didn't respond to it at all instead choosing to fluff post, and now that you have given some content about it, it's not resonating with me in the way others are, ie acryon's 725.

You feel more like scum over the others in the same situation because FS is just completely absent, Kop's posting gives me more town feels overall than yours (though he's also slipped down my reads a bit), and with Kain the bar is lower.

I would usually agree with you about FS but he was scum in a game running simul to this where he was engaged and interested so i'm not reading anything into his disinterest here.

[Xtoxm]

Fairly sure that she's not town now, yeah.

Voting her leading cw makes you sure of this?

--

Looks like Titus is the chosen lynch, I have enough doubt that I don't want to campaign against it particularly but i'm not expecting a scumflip.

[Xtoxm]

VOTE: MKA

Considering the VC situation.

[Xtoxm]

Eh.

VOTE: Kuroi

[Xtoxm]

I had hoped aninenien, kuroi, xtoxm and others could chip in and say who they would like as a candidate between BC,

texcat

.

[Xtoxm]

I will most likely join you in a moment on Kuro, but want to sort this first. Would you mind pointing me to Dave's softing prior to the BG claim? I don't know how but I read through and missed it still.

So you're really going to let MKA get away with a self-meta exclusive defense? I don't care if he didn't mean it in earnest or whatever, it's still complete and utter horseshit and strong justification for not moving our vote ever.

You guys don't wanna join?

[Xtoxm]

*Sigh*

KT has slightly improved in my eyes. His "I cannot be convinced that BURNING CRYSTAL is scum" makes me think he might be town himself. There's no way he'll be that sharp on BC to be town unless they're scum partners, and I just don't see BC to be scum myself.

Also that Rask wall post is forcing me to consider my read of that spot. Had it come from RC I would probably haven't thought much of it, simply bc I don't trust RC. However, coming from Rask -whom I've never played with before- makes me look at the content rather than speculate ○7bout the reason why they choose to phrase something one way and not the other.

Kuroi I'm not fully convinced about him being scum, but the 2 votes on him are coming from players I would be willing to trust in their reads. *Scratches Head*

I'll tell you what: UNVOTE: for now. I'm not ready to vote Kuroi yet. I could be on chilledtea but then I'd be the lonely vote there with not enough time to make a push on them. One thing is for sure though, I'm NOT voting BC today.

Well vote him then if you don't want BC or MKA, because those are the options. We can't sit on our hands this close to deadline. BC has had sticky votes for most of the day and Kuroi finally has some momentum.

Almost50 and Dave are obviously town.

Dave is not fucking obvtown.

[Xtoxm]

nevermind

[Xtoxm]

i mean

this is exactly what scum would do in his situation

but the objectively better play is to leave him

[Xtoxm]

VOTE: unvote

[Xtoxm]

I would be too.

I don't suspect acryon tbh, only to vote him would be sheeping Ranger.

VOTE: texcat

[Xtoxm]

There's only so many wagons we can run before we hit a VT or a CC. I think we've forced at least 1 scum into a bad claim. Removing a suspected VT is better than NL.

This wagon is probably the last one we have time for anyway.

[Xtoxm]

Likely but not always.

And i've seen people get run up and claim VT in a generally obvtown way and pushed the lynch elsewhere but they still end up getting suspect later on in the game.

And equally i've seen scum claim VT at L-1 on D1.

[Xtoxm]

There is no question there.

[Xtoxm]

Acyron still gives me pretty strong town vibes. Anen's posting today is bad. Didn't like Kain's on-off the tex wagon.

Let's start with VOTE: KT

{chilled, 50}
{BC, acryon, Ranger}
{davesaz}
{MKA, Kop}
{Anen, KT}

is roughly where i'm at, i'll expand later probably

[Xtoxm]

post after the debate.

[Xtoxm]

@Anen,

Titus lurked out most of D1 which is a towntell for her, she has no reason to buddy me in the way she has given my history of not working with her, and my general level of mislynchability I think she would want me as a lynch option were she scum and she's effectively ruled out that option or at least made it difficult for her to change that stance. Also when asked to claim at L-1 on D1 she pretty much VT softed (by not claiming), which again is a good indication of town.

Acyron is mostly feel. He's expressed a lot of thought processes similar to my own which is an indication of shared alignment. I just get town vibes, consistently, from him. It's hard to explain.

I'm feeling like it's time for KT to exit this game, he's scum by POE and possibly scum by play - His actions at the end of yesterday pinged me, as does his continual asking me to 'explain naked votes' when all of my votes are pretty clear with limited research of my posts and the context around them. Either way he shows no intention of improving his approach, and if he's town I won't miss him.

[Xtoxm]

There's a missing kill.

[Xtoxm]

@Xtoxm - Why did you think outing you suspected I was a VT was a good idea?

It probably isn't, but i'm not really into hiding the reasons behind my reads, and I think that observation should have been obvious.

[Xtoxm]

So i've been trying to find a legitimate town reason for 1177 and the follow up posts and I can't think of anything better than derp, which isn't satisfying enough. It looks like a scumslip being covered up with bullshit waffle.

To elaborate:
-Titus claims to have been using to the wiki page to follow possible setups, and bemoans the rest of us not doing so.
-Titus has been very clear about townreading 50.

Both of these statements also apply to me, and the thought process should have been: we have 3 possible setups, with a 1/3 chance of singleball (setup 5), increased further by only a single kill occurring on N1.

The main contradiction here is that she ignored her claimed townread on 50 to do setup spec when questioned about the missing kill, which goes against her narrative. The setup spec was likely a lie, done because 1/12 chance of singleball sounds like reasonable odds to dismiss and assume multiball, where >1/3 does not.

Thus, BC should probably be lynched under LAL.

Titus, feel free to try and show me i'm wrong here.

PS, i'm out of it with flu.

[Xtoxm]

dodge

[Xtoxm]

i'm lurking like a scumfuck aren't i

i should stop doing that

but you guys should stop belligerently refusing to wagon my lazy vote park

[Xtoxm]

anen would be a good compromise. kop would too. he's spoken far too much without giving me a townread, he's probably scum.

in the mean time:

His attitude is bad. His posts are bad. His reads are bad. His shouting is bad. Him calling me scum is especially bad. I don't want him in endgame. I don't want him here tomorrow.

Vote KT, for great justice.

This is case. Sheep it.

[Xtoxm]

also

the point against BC is still there

not that my heart was/is in it

[Xtoxm]

hmm

just noticed how close deadline is

VOTE: kop

also

its odd that his reaction to being accused of not scumhunting is "im bad at scumhunting" rather than "yes i have"

[Xtoxm]

yup

are you gonna join?

[Xtoxm]

As for the other team...I want Xtoxm to claim. His alignment depends on his roleclaim.

pretty sure it doesn't

you're probably just scum though

should be setup 10 or 12

we can still win with crosskills

chilled and acryon look town, with chilled the stronger read

if no ones ccing dave for cop

that leaves anen/ranger/kt+bc, bc most likely sk? and needs to be worked with

[Xtoxm]

Before claiming.
Who else has claimed so far?

do you need some more pressure?

[Xtoxm]

VT.

[Xtoxm]

so chilled

who are we shanking

[Xtoxm]

haha you played that cute

ok wolves listen up

we'll be killing chilled tonight

you guys take care of dave one way or another

anyone wanna discuss anything or shall we get on with it?

[Xtoxm]

VOTE: Xtoxm

See y'all in the graveyard.

[Xtoxm]

I'll see you very soon chilled

[Xtoxm]

Town, remember you

have

to lynch a wolf tomorrow.

And set up a 1:1:2 for N4.

So don't get ahead of yourselves and go after my goon.