Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[mhsmith0]

Kcdaspot is being replaced.

Ego post, pending mod confirmation of sub and actual receipt of role pm (he offered me the slot).

[mhsmith0]

@all: current thoughts on Luna? For the #1 volume poster she sure seems to be saying not very much interesting/helpful.

[mhsmith0]

@all: current thoughts on Luna? For the #1 volume poster she sure seems to be saying not very much interesting/helpful.

Kind of a null read (just below KTS and Phantom for me), her PoE playstyle is fakeable as scum but believable and consistent with her meta. I think she's better as a person of interest after a flip unless there's something I'm missing here.

so do you mean that simply the approach of using PoE is consistent, or is there a deeper consistency you're seeing?

[mhsmith0]

FYI this is Luna's scum game
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

if you want to compare/contrast. Imo she's closer to her wolfing than her town game at
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
(I hadn't read waltz)

[mhsmith0]

Why did your read of Thor v karnos go from tvt to voting karnos?

[mhsmith0]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

I'm not reading games that I wasn't a part of to gain meta on someone.

So stop posting past games.

Close investigating suggests that there are many players in this game other than you, some of whom may actually bother. And given that you'd already stated a read on Luna, you weren't really who I was talking to.

[mhsmith0]

459

Ok so I agree it was a bad post, but why reaching in a necessarily scummy way as opposed to simply making a dumb argument as possible town in conf!bias or "screw you" mode? I don't really see how that particular moment was substantially AI compared to all of the other back and forth he'd been involved in.

Also, you bumped up rosske on your list right around then, despite thinking that karnos was looking worse (while rosske voted io on the same back and forth). What was driving your rosske read shift at that time?

[mhsmith0]

Oh and i actually forgot to answer the first part, derp.
Possibly? It looked to me like he was starting to make up reasons to scumread people to keep his story straight.

So can you talk this through a bit more? Why does wolf!karnos need to make up more reasons to push on io after having already made up a few others? Is this just shoveling more crap forward and seeing if anything sticks? Something else?

I also don't really understand the "keep his story straight" bit, what do you mean by this?

[mhsmith0]

Also, what posts in particular seemed towny from rosske?

[mhsmith0]

Ok I'll re-read and look for it.

[mhsmith0]

vague framework of scum motivation to attach to it.

which is why it's an actually worthwhile lynch and i don't get why half of the town is reading karnos as town for no reason?

Well I think the reason is that reading quote walls is boring, ditto parsing mutual accusations of lying. Plus there's I think a natural tendency to read "they're fighting" as "probably t/t".

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: karnos
I could explain why in detail but it'd involve text walls and based on the way things have gone down I figure that town isn't actually interested. But some of the highlights:

1) as you just noted, his play has been highly defensive and inward-focused; very rarely does he engage with anyone who isn't suspecting him or addressing him (and ftr, this is NOT something he was "forced" to do, it's a choice about how he spends his time)

2) he's advanced a number of poor arguments (the "misspelling=scum" bit on io, twisting what Thor said in a few spots, notably the bit about the "100%" town read on you, etc)

3) 196 reads as pretty fake

Ps

that's L-1

[mhsmith0]

Pps I still don't like Luna, but her postings weren't as weak as I thought on the second read through. And there are a number of other slots that really haven't done much either. Probably a coasting wolf somewhere in the game, but I'm really not sure who it'd be.

[mhsmith0]

Why do you town read karnos? You said he was similar to your newbie game meta; but what did you think of the specific points raised against him? And if you don't want karnos lynched, what is your lynch pool you're willing to vote on? I see Luna, who else? Pc/Ross?

[mhsmith0]

Tone

Ok so you like the tone, but you've only seen karnos as town right? Why do you think tone is AI and not just indicative of karnos playing style in general?

[mhsmith0]

I don't have a problem w io's postings, other than the fact that she's been largely an inactive. Otoh her inactivity doesn't really stand out in this board at this time. Did something ping you wrt her?

[mhsmith0]

mh Your 2nd reason for voting Karnos was poor arguments, yet Io made poor arguments towards Karnos. How hard is your Karnos scumread?

Which io arguments did you think were poor, specifically, and why?

And do you think karnos has defended himself in an honest and forthright manner? I feel like his defense has been sketchy, like he doesn't want to engage with the the actual case being made. And there's been a lack of clarity towards what he was even trying to do with his original posts (attack? Not attack? Just Thor? More than that?) that suggests that he's manly interested in just making the case go away.

So I don't have a read so strong that it's lock wolf or the like, but I think he's a pretty reasonably likely wolf, yes.

Pa the karnos post was 198, typo.

Pps players who are bad town or mislynch bait type get more room to screw up in general before you can be sure they're wolves. It's annoying, but part of the game.

[mhsmith0]

People implies plural, but only one person has not answered them, Thor665.
The way you worded this looks like just a roundabout way of saying Thor should be criticized more than you because he didn't answer without actually calling him directly out.

This one, for instance, seems ok to me. It reads motive into karnos actions, but it's a reasonable interpretation. And 79 is a poor defense against it. "I meant ____" is a specific, direct answer. Karnos didn't do that. And io's 83 pushes harder on karnos poor response, which again seems fine to me.

What am I missing?

[mhsmith0]

I seem to have a talent for getting hammered on weekends while I'm away from my computer, second game in a row where this happened.

GL town. Make sure you lynch Io for me tomorrow.

Any opinions on anyone else?

[mhsmith0]

if you thought he was scum you wouldn't give a fuck about who he thought was scum. but you're scum that just lynched an easy mislynch.

You really don't know how to read people don't you? Karnos came in and gave an empty opinion on io; the fact that he'd do that is possibly town indicative (in which case it's helpful to get more info from him), but also possible wifom by a scum who's dying (innwhichncase it'd be REALLY helpful to get more info out of him).

[mhsmith0]

Like, in twilight you ALWAYS ask for more info from whoever has been lynched. That's like basic common sense.

[mhsmith0]

shut the FUCK UP

don't discredit my reads

Well, I'm suspicious of Luna, but you also read me as wolf just now for a pretty dumb reason.

[mhsmith0]

YOURE SUSPICIOUS OF LUNA YET YOU LYNCHED THE MOTHERFUCKING PERSON THAT LUNA JUST LYNCHED LIKE A WALK IN THE PARK

WHEN THE NEXT DAY PHASE STARTS YOUR ASS IS GRASS

I'm suspicious of Luna yet I'm also suspicious of karnos, and reading the thread and the back and forth makes more more suspicious of karnos than Luna. This is scum-indicative because _______?

[mhsmith0]

I have no problem w that. Assuming karnos is town (which is not certain; his "lynch io tomorrow" twilight post is easy to make as a wolf regardless of io alignment), then we will be a step behind. Fortunately there are no nk's until n3.

Ps for the record, a good townie response by karnos would basically be to spam his reads and make sure he gives us as much info as he can. If he was simply being annoyed or something, it's explainable but not optimal. So it'd be nice if karnos spammed twilight w thoughts/reads, if he was town. It's really be nice if he was a wolf, though obviously I wouldn't expect it in that case.

[mhsmith0]

Btw, @kts: how often do you lol hammer as town?

[mhsmith0]

Transcend, why not just answer 656? Those aren't unfair questions, or even (Imo) especially difficult ones.

[mhsmith0]

I recall mention of him having played a VERY good scum game not too long ago. I may skim that vs this one.

[mhsmith0]

So in this one you're seemingly going for hostile. Any particular reason why?

[mhsmith0]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... start=1525
He was town (I'd been reading this one for ploben before)

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=66713
IIRC thus was the scum game he'd gotten praise for

[mhsmith0]

Btw, @kts: how often do you lol hammer as town?

I make it my duty to hammer any L-1 regardless of my alignment or the other persons alignment.

It must be fun playing w you and boonskiies.

[mhsmith0]

I don't really know who that is, but sure.

Another lol hammerer type. Played w him once, he was scum. Was an annoying game in a lot of ways.

[mhsmith0]

Blood for the blood god!

[mhsmith0]

Skulls for the skull throne!

Ps well if you ask so nicely how can I not? (That's def. what the "please" is for)

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw I'd laugh my ass of post game if this whole back and forth was scum theater between two people who know a town flip is coming. Since I think odds are decent of karnos flipping red, not any kind of priority right now though.

[mhsmith0]

*brings up possible scum theater*
*thread dies*

Umm.........

[mhsmith0]

Eh, maybe. Still seems odd. Esp. Given the quick response to my second post.

[mhsmith0]

Thx. U know what it's from?

[mhsmith0]

great game and series

[mhsmith0]

I'm confident he's town

And thus the lol hammer? Or has post hammer stuff changed your mind?

[mhsmith0]

I seem to have a talent for getting hammered on weekends while I'm away from my computer, second game in a row where this happened.

GL town. Make sure you lynch Io for me tomorrow.

This plus a mic drop makes me feel decent about wolf odds. Possible bad town but it's been a long enough twilight to think a reappearance would be likely if town.

[mhsmith0]

I mean I'm only confident in it because I don't really have any other strong townreads? Like if this is green I might have to take a two day hiatus from the game to get on a clean slate.

I wasn't prepared to lynch tbqh but who would have been a better person to vote?

I think there's a night but without a kill? Not sure format wise though.

[mhsmith0]

But twilights are fun!

[mhsmith0]

It's bad wolf play too, but I'd say it still leans more wolf than town.

[mhsmith0]

Also there are implications behind calling someone scummy beyond just calling an alignment.

[mhsmith0]

Twilight. Day 2 is post flip.

[mhsmith0]

Last one probably just Luna or kts with the strategic hop onto the wagon (wolves usually can't resist bussing).

VOTE: killthestory

[mhsmith0]

im awful at this game and probably taking a hiatus after this shitshow

VOTE: Rosske

i'd like to think i had at least one scum in my 2/3

Do you think it's especially likely karnos and rosske vote together as buddies? Anything particularly notable or suspicious about their interactions together?

[mhsmith0]

It certainly looks like sheeping seeing as you empty voted right after him. you really think Luna would have been first on the wagon for her own partner? You've already proven your reads are way off

Derp clear for rosske accepted. I don't think I'm ever voting him this game.

[mhsmith0]

Oh wait never mind I'm an idiot. Rosske meant luna being first to vote karnos, not theoretical scum buddy kts. Never mind.

[mhsmith0]

You'd think scum Rosske would be paying attention to the votes on his partner.

Yeah I guess that's fair. Not as utterly clearing as forgetting there's only one goon left though.

[mhsmith0]

Lol our simultaneous postings.

[mhsmith0]

Talk me through the conf!town? For that vote or just a continuation of earlier read?

[mhsmith0]

Walk me through the KTS town read?

[mhsmith0]

Rooske is such an obvious townie why are you guys even considering him?

Why do you have rosske as obv town? And any thoughts on Luna and/or kts?

[mhsmith0]

Edit: you did discuss Luna/kts briefly. Expand on them a bit?

[mhsmith0]

I'm actually feeling a bit better on Luna looking at back and forth between her and karnos. Digging into some stuff, ill have a wall post when ready.

[mhsmith0]

Point of reference wrt kts:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p7827466

Also, a side note, they are looking way too into how I didn't hammer Lowell. If they are going to use meta on me like that, at least do it correctly, and look at how I hammer stuff. Their problem is that they keep calling it Derp hammer. I never derp hammer. I always have a reason for always doing it, and that's for info. It is actually a very common occurrence for me not to hammer like that. And if anything, with their meta outlook, it should confirm Lowell as town, because I WOULD HAVE BUSED THE HELL OUT OF HIM if he was my partner in that situation.

Kts isn't boon, but it's a decent comparison point from the perspective of another chronic hammerer.

[mhsmith0]

What pings in particular from rosske?

[mhsmith0]

Yeah there's an interesting moment when tenshii-transcend are moving together essentially on "not karnos". Still doing re-read but that pings. I think a bit harder on transcend.

[mhsmith0]

Dude the vc was only a few posts ago. That's l-2. Nice points for the fake looking reaction though.

[mhsmith0]

Nah it's L-2, my previous vote was in bold instead of vote tags coz i forgot ._.
But see that's the thing, if you thought my initial vote counted, i can easily make scum think im voting someone during LyLo and bait them into outing themselves. This sort of tactic must be prevented by mods by allowing those votes to count, but with this mod apparently he doesn't get it...

Your relentless lamp shading of it should effectively prevent it.

[mhsmith0]

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/M ... adeHanging
Although in fairness it's more like pointing it out in this case; lamp shading wasn't quite the right term.

Also what convinced you on Luna?

[mhsmith0]

Np. What convinced u on Luna?

[mhsmith0]

Np. What convinced u on Luna?

Np. What convinced u on Luna?

tenshii pls

i'm really on the fence here

Tenshii, can you answer this please?

[mhsmith0]

@tenshii: FYI, below were some of my thoughts I'd put together on karnos. As I was putting it together, I'd figured that it was rough enough to not be super useful, plus I really did get the sense that walls were boring the town

Spoiler: on karnos

VOTE: karnos for being the first one to post after my introduction!

How rude. I haven't done a VC recently, I hope that wasn't hammer.

Hello PC.

I mean, when this was made karnos wasn't especially close to getting hammered. And reads pretty fake on its own as well; like, if karnos actually thought he might have been hammered, he'd have been bothered by it. "Hello PC" doesn't really fit that bill.

Why would scum!karnos go to all this effort to throw suspicion on to Thor? Why would I be so elusive and sneaky about it, while I come right out and call Io scum and vote her? Wouldn't I just vote Thor, if I wanted him lynched?

And WTF is your logic now about 141. You know posts are made in consecutive order, right? Post 70 was Friday afternoon, Io's responses to it occurred later Friday, and then post 141 was Saturday morning. Does your theory include a time travel device? Otherwise, you can't reverse cause and effect. If 141 caused you to view 70 as a scummy post, that still doesn't explain Io's attacks that occurred prior to it.

Anyway, just answer me this if nothing else: whats the scum motivation? Taking your assumptions, not mine: If I have seen scum ignore questionnaires in other games, and I pointed out Thor was ignoring it here to attack him, maybe, if anything, you have proven I am scum hunting. Why does that make me scum, and not town?

Setting someone else up to take the heat for mislynches is pretty classic wolfing strategy. Or maybe you were simply throwing some dirt around to see what sticks, in case it later becomes profitable to switch your vote. Plenty of plausible wolf motivation there.

The thing is, in this setup the wolves need to secure SIX mislynches to win. That's a lot of mislynches. So being roundabout and indirect at times is necessary if you're playing the long game. No wolf is going to hard push six mislynches without town at some point just deciding that it's a slot that needs to be taken care of.

No Thor. You are scummy because the absurd contrast of you being 100% certain someone is town, but claiming to have no idea about who might be scum at all.

? Where did Thor ever say he was 100%? He states a town read, not a lock 100% sure read or the like. His sarcastic rejoinder

Because that's all that doesn't need to happen for this case to fall apart. Maybe I got my magical super accurate town read and haven't yet got a scum read - and, presto, my vote makes perfect sense even within the strange world of Mystic Thor the Wonderous Seer.

Sort of suggests that... if you're reading it divorced from the context of the fact that he's mocking your interpretation. 64 is in fact pretty clear that Thor is NOT 100% on his read.

Not reading is something only a scum would do. A town motivated player would be carefully reading all of his lynch targets posts for more evidence to push the lynch or for useful information post-flip.

"Town" and "good town" aren't the same thing. It's entirely plausible io was being lazy here (or trolling if you prefer that one). I don't see it AI at all.

Ps karnos ended up hammered before conversation really moved much further.

Pps I can't tell you how annoying it is to play w people who are being bad town. In terms of how much I need to push them to lynch, it's hard to say tbh. Part of it is working specifically for finding wolf motivation, whereas w players you respect, "they're not playing like I think of them as town" can itself be a decent case. Then again this was (IIRC) part of why I was willing to lynch thor d1 in 644 (I found his Dunn case weak and reachy [it turns out he was right on it ] and it felt like he wasn't engaging the board as usefully as he did in our newbie together when he subbed there), and that was wrong, so *shrugs*

[mhsmith0]

So I think that's my answers to your earlier questions, so talk about your luna read?

[mhsmith0]

@tenshii

That is sooooo degenerate. Getting away with being bad town just because you've done it in the past is words I can't even explain. What actions would they have to do to convince you they's scum? Aka if they get "more room," where is the line drawn?

I was talking about how annoying it is to play w "Bad town" in response to this. In this context, pc would potentially be the "bad town" player that people were talking about (I confess to not having played w him before, but i HAVE played w bad town players before, sometimes multiple in a game).

Ps not a pro dodgeball player

Pps talk about your Luna read please?

[mhsmith0]

Not me

[mhsmith0]

Talk through your tenshii strong town read? I'd think pushing counter wagons on karnos (tenshii or transcend) is a reasonable profile of a scum buddy of karnos, and I'm not really sure why either has otherwise earned a strong town read.

[mhsmith0]

I think Giga is scum.

Ok, why?

[mhsmith0]

@tenshii: talk me through your swing in opinion on KTS? Convinced by the case? Or a compromise lynch?

Ps L-1 unless I miscounted.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah that's a typo.

[mhsmith0]

Lol I really really wanted to bring up a strat early D1 where we use our two free lynches to confirm mafia.

We're halfway there!

[mhsmith0]

On MU we screw around with turbo setups a lot...

6p is gonna be 4v2
I think an all vigs setup works nicely there

4 town vigs
2 scum vigs
Everyone dies = town win

Or 4 town 1 shot bp vigs
2 scum vigs + factional nk
Everyone dies = scum win

Off the cuff I think both are reasonably balanced, and work for entertaining fast games.

You can also do 7p with 2 scum vigs (or a vig, goon, and factional kill), vs 5 town vigs, see
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... -VIGS-VIGS
For an example

[mhsmith0]

Actually that game is a great read, both because it has a funny/accurate meta read of me by nacho and because we had bimps basically scum claim as town and then eventually we (nacho) figured it out lol

[mhsmith0]

So you'd have 4 vigs w 1 shot bp, 2 two mafia vigs (without bp) with a nk. So you basically have a day one and then it's won or lost on night 1.

I kinda prefer the no bp scenario (1st setup). You'll never hit day 2, but town has options to win even given a ML.

4v1v1 might also work, though multi-ball in a small group is something that really depends on the group I think.

[mhsmith0]

Pseudo VC as of this post

Luna Fox L-3 - Killthestory, Transcend, PhantomCobalt the scumlord
Killthestory L-1 - Rosske, gigabyte, mhsmith0, Luna Fox, Tenshii the legend

Not Voting - Thor, Io

So the viable hammer pool is within - Thor, Io, Transcend, PhantomScumlord

This is probably correct.

[mhsmith0]

Let's play a different game





Ps seriously, half the game is voting kts which implies strongest read, except tenshii who's seemingly just rolling w it. But yes put me in the first group. There are a few I suspect, but I think he fits pretty reasonably well as the second goon and see no notable reason to town read him.

[mhsmith0]

No vlr?

But all three are great in their own way.

[mhsmith0]

I kinda want all the reads on KTS compiled into one masterpost

Go for it. This is an exercise...

[mhsmith0]

If we mislynch today I'll probably put together some Vca stuff on d3. Not sure it's super helpful right now though, esp. Since I have to make my own given the inconsistent ordering if Vcs in the game.

[mhsmith0]

Eh, it's his first mid and I think he's like 14. Learning experience.

[mhsmith0]

@tenshii: vlr= virtues last reward, game #2 in the zero escape trilogy (my avatar is the main antagonist on game #3 which just came out)

[mhsmith0]

Io: walk me through the town read on kts? Because you think it's PC or because kts actually seems town to you?

[mhsmith0]

He's town because PC is scum and there's only 1 scum. Linda strait forward.

My point is, if you're wrong on PC do you still think kts town? And if so why?

[mhsmith0]

it's because i'm clearly town af

VOTE: PC

Why clearly?

[mhsmith0]

He's town because PC is scum and there's only 1 scum. Linda strait forward.

My point is, if you're wrong on PC do you still think kts town? And if so why?

If I'm wrong then I still put KTS lower than Luna and Ross as possible scum.
Ross because of the just 0 interaction at all with Karnos. Then Luna because I can see Karnos's interactions as possible acting on his part. KTS just seams more genuine.

Fwiw my suspicion of Luna is declining. Looking at interactions, she'd asked some decent questions of karnos, and unless her wolf game is unusually in tune w that (most wolves don't bother), I'd consider that reasonably clearing, and I don't really see other stuff as pinging. The late vote was a plausible surrender from a buddy just by timing, but I'm not really seeing how her process of getting there looked particularly off.

What in particular from kts seems genuine?

[mhsmith0]

Are you half lemming by any chance?

Eh? What are you trying to say by this?

She's saying that you're basically just bandwagoning. Compromising onto KTS instead of pushing your ostensible scum read (pc) and then moving back to pc when there's momentum there again.

[mhsmith0]

because i know i'm not scum so i have to survive to prevent a mislynch?

how stupid can you be.

Except we have multiple mislynches we can afford before we lose. So while surviving is nice as town, it's not remotely necessary to win. As a wolf, on the other hand, survival is absolutely paramount. So if you're showing survivalistic tendencies, then yes that's suspicious. In this situation, it absolutely has to be.

[mhsmith0]

I think it's pretty safe to say KTS isn't going to be night killed.

[mhsmith0]

because i know i'm not scum so i have to survive to prevent a mislynch?

how stupid can you be.

Except we have multiple mislynches we can afford before we lose. So while surviving is nice as town, it's not remotely necessary to win. As a wolf, on the other hand, survival is absolutely paramount. So if you're showing survivalistic tendencies, then yes that's suspicious. In this situation, it absolutely has to be.

I don't want to be mislynched.

If you don't care about mislynches, then I'll mislynch you and we'll call it a day.

@Giga, Townslips can be faked. I've done it plenty of times.

The issue is, you seem to be MORE concerned w your own survival than actually finding the last wolf. No one wants to be mislynches, and being somewhat survivalistic can be acceptable, but especially in this context (no prs) survival is less concerning than finding the correct lynch. A townie focus is more outward; yours seems to be more inward. Am I wrong about this observation of your behavior? Or do you disagree that the townie focus should be outward and aggressive instead of inward and defensive?

Also, please explain how you got "you don't care about mislynches" from my original statement?

[mhsmith0]

Instead of prodging I'll just point out that thor is my strongest town read by a solid margin. That is NOT what bussing looks like imo, and Thor talks at times about how his wolf meta is not to bus (not just in this game; he chatted about it quite a but in open 635 for instance), and there was TREMENDOUS potential for a karnos partner to take karnos side in the karnos-io debate, or just call it town-town, or find something else to talk about and change the conversation.

[mhsmith0]

im glad you townread thor

i don't

Talk through how you see Thor-karnos interactions as reasonably plausible wolf-wolf.

[mhsmith0]

I've got 8 better suspects than Thor

[mhsmith0]

I dislike the idea of forming a strong town bloc this early, but I'm not against people making town reads (even strong ones) and talking about their reasons.

[mhsmith0]

then why don't you just say it directly?

? Clarify your point please. Which point wasn't I saying directly?

[mhsmith0]

Who were you referring to then when you said that?

Thor. My point was that Thor COULD have done any number of things to shield his buddy but instead took a VERY townie-looking approach if digging into that back and forth and coming up w the right answer on karnos.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: KillTheStory

I'm still serious about the question I asked that no one fielded.
Why is Tenshii a townread for peeps?
I got nothing there.
Slot feels super empty.
Whassup?

Idk. I don't particularly see tenshii as solid town.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler: karnos on luna

You are pushing this inane theory that you are really good at town-reading people but really bad at scum reading them, which doesn't pass muster. There is no inherent difference between a scum read and a town read, they both measure the same thing, but town is on the positive scale and scum is on the negative.

I disagree!
I town hunt because im better at finding town than scum!

*banging head against wall*

If you can find town, then by process of elimination you found scum too. The process is identical.

Regardless, that's really tangential.
Karnos argues that you cant be bad at scumreading people but good at townreading people because it's the same thing.
Which isn't true, imo.

I'm sorry you are in denial here, but you are wrong. The process of scum hunting means looking at every player, and picking out the one who seems least likely to flip town. There is no difference at all between reading scum and reading town.

These process are entirely different, the conclusion is the same, the only difference is that the reason for the "scumreads" is "PoE" on my case.

How do you know the process is different? I thought you said you only got town reads.

Anyway, hypothetical question: Is there any player you do not town-read right now? Can you point at any post they made and say that was part of the reason why you don't town read them? If so, you successfully read a player as scummy! Congratulations.

Now let's see here what you usually define as "scummy" can be done by both Town and Scum, there's no way you wont make mislynches if you just guide yourself with "scummyness" to vote players.

Are you making the claim that your method never results in a miss-lynch?

PoE in of itself is scummy broseph. the fact you trying it D1 is PAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

If you say so.

I can see why he might say that. It's a very easy way to play as scum, since you know who is all town. You just act like you "figured out" that X player is town, announce your read, and ta-da!

I didn't bring it up because It's so incredibly obviously bad that I don't think someone who actually rolled scum would be careless enough to announce such a strategy.

I mean Thor and Karnos derp

Eh, I agree.

But what about Io?

What is she doing to contribute, other than popping in to misspell my name and remind everyone that I am scum.

Wild theory here- Io instigated the whole Thor vs Karnos argument, and then backed off satisfied when I got a few votes on my wagon. Doesn't that scream standard operation for scum? you want to push a miss lynch, but you don't want to be the one who is pushing it hard all day, so that after the flip you can turn things around and get someone on the miss-lynch wagon lynched.

If Io was a townie scum hunting, she should be looking for my partners, or at least putting some effort into my push, encouraging others to vote & hammer me. Instead she sits back and does little to nothing, exactly what I would expect from scum watch a TvT argument unfold.

My only problem with the wild theory: it requires that Thor is town.

This really doesn't read as wolf-wolf. As a comparison point,

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

Was where karnos was Wolf w ranger. Note the lack of substantive engagement from him to her. He dumps on a distancing vote, and pushes a "scum read" on her, but ultimately isn't interested in what she has to say. Here, he IS interested in what Luna has to say, and not in a "I'm just pushing you as scum" sort of way. So unless there's more/better meta in karnos and how he treats his buddies, I'd consider this reasonably clearing on Luna.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler: karnos on gig

Unless you think Thor & I are the sort of players who would bus each other day 1.

Io, is this and post #70 what lead you to believe that Karnos is adamant about Thor's lynch? If not, could you tell me what I missed?

Karnos, how are you reading Thor at the moment?

Thos *is* acting scummy, though not as much as Io, and I only have one vote.

The problem I have with Thor is his logic is inconsistent. He thinks his read is so good he can trust you as town after only a couple posts. Okay, maybe his read is so good, but if you accept that he is so good at reading people, then shouldn't he pick his own scum to vote, based on his amazing reads? Instead he chooses to sheep you. It's like he is saying he is so good at reading people that he is 100% convinced you are town, but at the same time he isn't confident enough in his reads to independently vote on his biggest scum read. It's a weird inconsistency to me.

There is one perfectly logical conclusion, is that he read you as town and I was his biggest scum read, and that would make perfect sense... but when he was questioned about his vote, he didn't say that was the case... he just said he was sheeping you. It's like he doesn't want to take personal responsibility for the vote, doesn't want to be associated with it. He wants to support the wagon on me but give himself a nice out after I flip town.

If players know the questionnaire will be used to call them scum

Karnos

, is this what you believe the purpose of the RQS was?

What you or I think about the purpose is irrelevant, since you have already shown that you will use it as an excuse to push a lynch.

Given that knowledge, and knowing that ignoring the RQS has no ill potential, it just sounds like fake scum hunting, busywork essentially. It's like when someone enters thread, asks a few pointed questions, and then never follows up with them.

The fact you're concerned about how you think I'm using the RQS to push your lynch and how you've been trying to draw negative attention onto Thor (as in post 70) tells me your main concern is in how other people are reading you. That's pretty basic scum motivation. You say you're scumreading Thor and Io, but your interactions with them don't seem like scumhutning to me, it's just redrawing attention onto them.

Again with post 70. You refuse to read it as written, instead adding in assumptions about it's motivation. Saying Thor was the only one who hadn't answered questions is a lie. You had not answered your own questionnaire. Several players who were not active had not answered it. Perhaps players in a prior game didn't answer it. As I said in a prior post, in the only other game I played with a questionnaire, one of the players who refused to answer it flipped scum. You can keep trying to twist 70 into an attack on Thor, but that doesn't make it true.

I don't feel the need to share a detailed read of you right now. You aren't a top scum choice, I have no intention of voting you today, based on the current game state, but if I tell you exactly what behavior of yours is townie and what is scummy I am just inviting you to adjust your play and fool me further if you actually are scum.

also i don't see why you couldn't answer my question with a simple "town" or "scum" or even "null", it's not like i'll know why you read me that way and I'll change whatever it is you suspect me for.

Typically, if you are scum, my read on you might help you decide whether or not to nightkill me. Now in this particular setup this is less of a concern, but I don't feel like changing up my strategy at this point because I don't see the benefit.

As written, the post was written in such a way where it could have only been referring to Thor.

Pretend for a moment that Thor did fill out the questionnaire, and I still made that same post. Are you saying it would be grammatically flawed?

No, there is still a valid interpretation for the post: I was asking a general question.

I answered it as a general question, so of course it's a valid interpretation, but I can't help but think after reading 141 that you were trying to cast some sort of suspicion onto Thor (and myself, as it seems you keep bringing up the fact I was withholding my answers for a little bit). I didn't really read it the way Io was and I was trying to understand where she was coming from in post #105 with pretty much all of her suspicion on you, but after seeing more posts from you, I ended up coming to the same conclusion as her after rereading your ISO and the thread.

I agree, my iso probably looks like crap, but every time I look at this thread there are 2-3 new semantic arguments picking apart my choice of words. Instead of arguing that you know what I meant better than I know what I meant, why not explain why I am scum?

Why would scum!karnos go to all this effort to throw suspicion on to Thor? Why would I be so elusive and sneaky about it, while I come right out and call Io scum and vote her? Wouldn't I just vote Thor, if I wanted him lynched?

And WTF is your logic now about 141. You know posts are made in consecutive order, right? Post 70 was Friday afternoon, Io's responses to it occurred later Friday, and then post 141 was Saturday morning. Does your theory include a time travel device? Otherwise, you can't reverse cause and effect. If 141 caused you to view 70 as a scummy post, that still doesn't explain Io's attacks that occurred prior to it.

Anyway, just answer me this if nothing else: whats the scum motivation? Taking your assumptions, not mine: If I have seen scum ignore questionnaires in other games, and I pointed out Thor was ignoring it here to attack him, maybe, if anything, you have proven I am scum hunting. Why does that make me scum, and not town?


Meh. This is a big waste of time and not getting us closer to finding scum. My iso looks bad because I am making posts like this to respond to nonsense attacks and I don't really have much time to look at anything else going on in the game.

Similar story. Neither is as clear as Thor, but both are pretty clear.

Town
Thor
Luna / gig / io (in some order)

[mhsmith0]

VC Day 1 - 3

karnos L-3 - Io, Thor665, gigabyte
Thor665 L-3 - Killthestory, Transcend, Rosske
Io L-5 - karnos

(expired on 2016-07-29 16:30:00)

Fun question: why was scum!karnos not on the Thor counter wagon here? The lazy answer is Thor is his buddy. The more plausible answer is one of:

1) karnos buddy already on Thor wagon, dont want to push together
2) karnos didn't want to active push the Thor mislynch wagon, wanted to park his vote elsewhere while continuing his back and forth

[mhsmith0]

I SAID NO MORE WALLS

VOTE: Thor

@thor: you think karnos wolf bro shamelessly tosses on a "screw you" vote right after you start to push karnos? I have limited meta w kts (we were both in mass effect Mafia but I wasn't reading the game all that closely tbh); you know him well enough to comment on if this is his relatively normal wolf meta?

[mhsmith0]

with that based on what ive seen its karnos and KTL for the scumteam secondary scummy reads on luna and GT (gut mainly)

ANNNNNNND

VOTE: KTS

We real now

pedit: now that you mention that and transcend is not far off of making the list either.

If you think I'm scum, why not just hammer me, why you going for a new wagon instead? Or at least, why not show intent to hammer?

On the other hand... Discrediting someone voting kts. Notable.

[mhsmith0]

weird that everyones suddenly concerned about niceness in mafia....last time I checked pot-stirring was a surefire way to agitate scum into revealing themselves. Making people emotional makes them less calculated. Making them less calculated makes them more likely to slip and reveal their alignment. It's a good thing. And if we all say nothing personal and hug after the game's over, no harm done, right? Look at how KTS is reacting right now, there's a lot there.

VOTE: killthestory

Rosske pushing a new possible counter wagon to karnos here.

[mhsmith0]

Here
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8126494
Karnos has a lot to say, none of it relating to the KTS case / wagon (even though for survivalism sake it'd make sense to push or at least test it normally). A moment that is suggestive of a kts or rosske buddy.

[mhsmith0]

Actually i have a feeling this guy is manipulating all of us.

VOTE: mhsmith0

Let's see what the quote machine has to say about this gem

So, now that the AAR is here:

Saying something "just feels" some way indicates that you want your audience to believe something, but you are unwilling / unable to back it up with a sound assessment.

People who are invested in learning more about other players spend a lot of time looking at things from different angles. Sure, they can have blind spots, but "just feels" is not acceptable to soneone making an effort to learn.

Since mafia already know the truth, they aren't able to make genuine discovery, only simulate it. "Just feels" is sometimes as far as they can get, because they are trying to spin doctor.

...

Smith, you imo fell flat on your face after the mission 1 dipole. You had plenty of time to get your head in the townie space, but instead took the bait of decrying me as a spy. I'm sure it looked pretty forced.

Fare well and good luck.

Still, it'll be interesting to see if there's anything backing up the "feeling". Impress us transcend!

[mhsmith0]

But I don't really see how his point is valid as he just said I was lying which I don't even see what I was lying about since he didn't really point it out clearly. The closest thing I can see where he gets the "I'm a liar" part from is where I was saying what I thought his intentions with his posts were which wouldn't even be a lie as it's just interpretation as I don't see him having very high town motivations with them. Even if I was stretching that a little bit

It kind of sounds like you are lying again.

" he didn't really point it out clearly"

Specifically, you said "claiming to have never pushed for his lynched"

Please, show me where I claimed to never push for Thor's lynch. Please do. You can't, because it's a lie. I never made such a claim.

Does anyone else think I was really being unclear? Is Io being dumb, or scum?

This is hard-core pissed off?

[mhsmith0]

Well, yes, he was stubborn. The question is whether this stubbornness was some kind of emotional thing or a strategic thing. Barring evidence of it being emotional I'm inclined to see it as strategic and meaningful. Why (other than that he was being stubborn) do you see it as emotional?

[mhsmith0]

Agreed. I'm trying to figure out how meaningful that moment from karnos was, when he (as a wolf) elected NOT to push on KTS, even though KTS was the counter-wagon gaining momentum. It's possible it was as simple as not wanting to be called out for bandwagoning, but even there if KTS was town I'd have expected to at least see some kind of soft push or something trying to deflect the momentum that way, barring some other good reason not to do so. And I'm not sure "karnos was super pissed off" is necessarily either true or an adequate explanation. Thoughts?

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: killthestory
L-2

[mhsmith0]

Do you have a solid case on a wolf? There's a case on you, it seems pretty plausible, I don't think you really have a realistic chance to live tbh.

Ps why no town read on io or Thor?

[mhsmith0]

Ios on pc.

[mhsmith0]

Talk about your scum read on Thor. Why do you think that's bussing between him and karnos.

[mhsmith0]

@Thor My KTS vote was just a compromise. As far as I remember, I've wanted a Phantom lynch practically this whole game

So what, if anything, did karnos' flip do to your read on PC?

[mhsmith0]

Yeah 7 days without posting is WAY past the "should be replaced" mark.

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw, my current PoE is {kts, tenshii, transcend}. On the town side, I don't think I ever voting Thor this game, and I have others that I'm town reading too.

@transcend: if you're town, you should recognize that being wrong on karnos means that people are going to be less inclined to trust your reads, especially the first day after the scum flip. This is doubtless a frustrating experience (regardless of your alignment). But if you want to build up influence, why don't you take a strong stand on WHY you think kts is town? Not just "I have a better read" but, in a world in which Luna flips town, kts is town because _____? And for the record, "he lol hammered a wolf" is completely NAI. A lol hammerer type would easily hammer a wolf bro there. Karnos was never ever surviving the game; why stick your neck and out look odd by defending him in that spot as the final wolf?

[mhsmith0]

Rosske fake hammered (possibly unintentionally), since tenshii went off wagon onto PC.

[mhsmith0]

Days Luna Fox has survived rope: 2

I will keep a count of this each time LF is not lynched. I will continue my count in the Dead PT if I get lynched and you still don't lynch her.

If kts flips goon this will be the quote of the game

[mhsmith0]

Yeah no shit. What wolf bothers to dump final reads post hammer when his death ends the game? Also talk about your tenshii town read? What's driving that?

[mhsmith0]

Or because I realized that you were likely town given your final reads list and didn't want to screw up your reaction test by pointing it out.

[mhsmith0]

Tenshii is just obvtown as fuck t b h.

Again, if you don't see that, more reason to why Mhs is scum.

Tbh I don't see it. Maybe explain it?

[mhsmith0]

I still don't really get the tenshii as obv town bit. Maybe I'll re read *shrugs*

[mhsmith0]

I'd also think an experienced player as second wolf would be more inclined to bus once the lynch looked inevitable, and a newer player would be more inclined to look around for a counter wagon. Tenshii is (I think) a newer player.

[mhsmith0]

It's more that players worry about not being able to justify being off wagon. But tenshii is (unless an alt) very new to MS and possibly Mafia as a whole. In a game without day chat, I can easily see "let's find a counter wagon, whereever it is" as very plausible buddy behavior.

[mhsmith0]

Besides, scum are capable of trolling twilight. Whether they're the final scum or not.

I'm not too sure how MHSmith instantly assumed the slot he was lynching all day wasn't trolling twilight.

I didn't KNOW he wasn't trolling twilight, but it seemed unlikely given the manner of his post hammer posting.

[mhsmith0]

Okay based on the reactions, Giga is solid town now. I don't think I'll change my read on this.

As for the bloc with {me, Luna, Thor, Io, Giga} I'm a bit reluctant to join because it has the person I've avidly scumread all game. I'm not too sure if I can do that. I'd be moderately okay with this bloc if Tenshii replaced Luna.

However: I wanna shift focus to mhsmith0-

All day screams

"KTS SCUM! KTS SCUM!!!!!!"

KTS claims scum as rxn test (supposedly)

"No shit he was town guys, come on"

Not sure what made him 180 so fast.

I don't recall screaming kts scum all day. Could you point me to where I was doing this?

[mhsmith0]

A consensus town block is likely to attracts bullets within it until/unless the last wolf is lynched. Whether you think that's a bug or a feature is up to you I guess. I'm not terribly inclined to form any kind of strong town block; I'm happy to discuss my reads and see where things go, but I think it's important for everyone to continue to read everyone else, especially given the chance a wolf can slip into the block.

[mhsmith0]

I'd advise you to be cautious about what you publicly read wrt mod activity, some mods don't care some care a lot. And to be VERY careful about anything which directly touches on private mod communications.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: Transcend


I know my alignment. Transcend is active lurking, discrediting and manipulating information.

Any chance we'll get you to expound on this?

Wrt PC, I'm in agreement w Thor that he should have been force-replaced a while ago. Overall I feel like it's basically a policy lynch on a willful inactive that has a chance at hitting scum. Anyone want to sell the idea that the case is much more than that?

[mhsmith0]

Well wanna vote Rosske then?

It wouldn't surprise me if he just gave up. His play has been so bad i get the feeling he's not even trying.

Rosske is on my short list.

Sure dude. It totally does. Like if I spend all of this time attacking somebody, and I don't have a vote on him, it totally changes what I say. What's your point in bringing it up anyways? Are you saying I'm scummy for doing it? If so, how and why?

I've said you're scummy for a few things - pushing someone without voting for them while calling them your top scum read is a prima facie scummy action.

Vote: Phantom Cobalt

So is this PC-rosske-tenshii for you then?

[mhsmith0]

Anyone want to extend discussion or have a meaningful town read on PC they want to push? It's fairly obvious PC is going to be one of the five lynches we can afford, and Im not particularly opposed to spending it now instead of later.

[mhsmith0]

K. My PoE is basically PC/rosske/tenshii and then go from there. I'm also cool w giving PC time to make a final case for himself and final reads if he has any. Don't want to run the whole 11 days but am fine w running a few more.

[mhsmith0]

Yep that's a lynch.

[mhsmith0]

So we either just won or we get our first known scum decision of the game n3.

[mhsmith0]

It only really counts if you lol while you hammer tho

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw I've lost enough games playing well that I don't complain about the easy/silly wins. Would 100% take a quickie win here.

[mhsmith0]

Newbie 1691 and mini normal 1775 were particularly frustrating for me.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7970654
Was like my ultimate realization of my meta. I played really well, accurately pegged the final scum, and then town blew it after I ate the bullet after MYLO no lynch, and I saw it all coming (Also maestro with the horrific pr misuse prevented the game from going easy mode on d3).

[mhsmith0]

Also this one for a turbo loss I'm still salty over
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... urbo/page7
Though watching visor yell at fable post game was pretty amusing. And alette and I teamed up to win in f3 against wolf!nego earlier this week and that helped a bit

[mhsmith0]

Basically. I don't really think it's fair to anyone to let obvious mod error stop a maj lynch so...
VOTE: pc

[mhsmith0]

im so happy that game is no longer ongoing i've wanted to talk about it so much.

Which one?

[mhsmith0]

I'm a bit busy right now will check in tonight.

[mhsmith0]

VCA coloring fixed

Decent non-info kill option from scum.

VC Day 1 - 3

karnos

L-3 -

Io

, Thor665, gigabyte
Thor665 L-3 -

Killthestory

, Transcend, Rosske

Io

L-5 -

karnos

VC Day 1 - 4

karnos

L-2 -

Io

, Thor665,

PhantomCobalt

, gigabyte
Thor665 L-3 -

Killthestory

, Transcend, Rosske

Killthestory

L-5 - kcdaspot

VC Day 1 - 5

karnos

L-3 -

Io

, Thor665, gigabyte

PhantomCobalt

L-4 - Luna Fox, Tenshii

Io

L-4 -

karnos

,

Killthestory

VC Day 1 - 5

karnos

L-3 -

Io

, Thor665, gigabyte

PhantomCobalt

L-4 - Luna Fox, Tenshii

Io

L-4 -

karnos

,

Killthestory

Luna Fox L-5 - Transcend
Thor665 L-5 - Rosske

Killthestory

L-5 - Kcdaspot
Transcend L-5 -

PhantomCobalt

VC Day 1 - 9

karnos

Lynched - Luna Fox,

Io

, Thor665, gigabyte, mhsmith0,

Killthestory

PhantomCobalt

L-5 - Tenshii

Io

L-4 -

karnos

, Rosske
Transcend L-5 -

PhantomCobalt

Luna Fox L-5 - Transcend

VC Day 2 - 3

PhantomCobalt

L-5 -

Io

Luna Fox L-5 -

PhantomCobalt

Killthestory

L-1 - gigabyte, Luna Fox, Thor665, mhsmith0, Tenshii
Transcend L-4 -

Killthestory

, Rosske
gigabyteTroubadour L-5 - Transcend

PhantomCobalt

L-5 -

Io

VC Day 3 - 2

PhantomCobalt

Lynched -

Io

, Tenshii, Luna Fox, gigabyteTroubadour, Thor665
Rosske L-4 - Transcend
Transcend L-4 - Rosske

It's still really weird I think that karnos never bothered making a meaningful survival move onto a different wagon, like Thor or PC, when there was reasonable chance to justify it. I guess he was trying to imitate townie stubbornness but it really didn't work.

It's also pretty annoying that we don't get VC's in order of voting, so it's kinda hard to unpack that way. I may try and pull one together that orders votes, but probably not ASAP.

[mhsmith0]

I suppose that's possible, but it's also possible that someone just PM'd the mod before EOD (and maybe before hammer) with the NK order. I suppose that's not likely, but it's not impossible. If the mod outed someone in that way, then the game is kinda broken tbh.

[mhsmith0]

That's the kind of replace out that if a strategic wolf replace out is pretty much disgusting. Never voting for that slot this game.

[mhsmith0]

I'm not supporting a rosske lynch today without a very solid case. Io was killed out of turn, and she was defending him, so I'd say nk motive alone gives him a decent clear unless you think he's ballsy enough as last wolf to kill allies at a time when he was likely to be under fire.

[mhsmith0]

I'm suspicious. Would have liked kts to spell out why he's obv!town. I plan to re-read things over the next few days. Sorry for being a bit of a slowing things downer.

[mhsmith0]

We 100% can't powerlynch down the line. Too easy to lose the game if there's a wolf in the bloc. Every day should be a re-think based on flip and night actions. And io getting shot instead of Thor happened for a reason. The reason might be that it's Thor, but I struggle to see that as the answer. Which makes me think it was either done to continue us down the path to a lazy lynch of rosske, or something else was going on. And I'm not sure what that "something else" could be.

[mhsmith0]

Case it and sell it then. I'm currently opposed.

[mhsmith0]

fuck that shit

you can just let obvious scum escape another lynch like you did yesterday

If you don't care enough to case and sell the lynch, why should I care about you shouting to lynch this guy?

[mhsmith0]

I said case/sell the rosske lynch. And no I don't trust you. If you want to build trust, case and sell the lynch you want. Or just continue to do this and probably be ignored.

[mhsmith0]

Well the work on the others. I'm not currently sold. Sorry.

[mhsmith0]

Night kill analysis is wifomy to some degree, sure. But io, while always likely to be an NK, was not especially likely to be the FIRST NK. Thor was. His interactions w karnos made him very unlikely to be a partner and got him a widespread town read, and Thor was an active, engaged player who has a lot of experience and as far as I can tell a strong reputation for competence. So for Thor NOT to be the first one dead is weird; just generic spk means he's dead there a solid majority of the time.

This means that the last goon actively chose "not Thor" for a reason. It could be because the goon was a newbie and/or didn't think through night orders, it could be in order to achieve something specific (like an easier lynch of rosske as a plausible example), it could be because Thor is the last goon (though it still seems unlikely), etc. and because it's a decision that we know the last goon made, it's something that we should at least be thinking about.

[mhsmith0]

Night kill analysis is wifomy to some degree, sure. But io, while always likely to be an NK, was not especially likely to be the FIRST NK. Thor was.

I don't see what made Thor the supposed first NK target.

Everything makes him the obvious first NK target.

1) He's the best player on the board
2) He's a strong across the board town read
3) He's been active and engaged

Thor not getting killed means something. It has to. Among the ideas:

1) Thor is the goon.
2) The goon doesn't understand how to make optimal shots.
3) The goon is trying to achieve something very specific by letting Thor hang around and Io (who has been much less active) get offed first.

Again, this is a decision that we KNOW was made by the last goon. It means something. We should be thinking about what that something is (though I probably won't actually do anything useful on that front until the weekend).

[mhsmith0]

Well #2 doesn't apply to a decent # of people here (I'd happily point you to my record of good night kills, for instance binking cops twice in two nights in games where I was a wolf against a town with a cop).

And #3 is basically something where you can look at each person and try to think through "if they were a wolf, who is an optimal kill for them". Generically, Thor is a really optimal kill for most people who aren't Thor. So presuming that it wasn't Thor making the shots (and if he is the last wolf I think he's got some very difficult decisions to make going forward anyway), then it's either a screwup (in which case it's useful to think through who could have screwed it up) or it was done for a reason. So you look at kill motive and think through who would not have wanted to shoot Thor there.

And FWIW, you pop up as a very reasonable candidate for someone who both might have simply screwed up (since you're new) and might have had actual motive to not shoot Thor (since it might make you look bad for the person pushing you EOD to suddenly die). You're not the only person where motive is conceivable, but yes, you stand out as someone who could reasonably have wanted to shoot someone other than Thor.

[mhsmith0]

@Trans: it's relevant information. Your lack of desire to think about it is not my problem.

Deal.
With.
It.

[mhsmith0]

@Thor

Hypothetically, I get lynched and I flip town. Does that make you scum for pushing a town slot so hard?

I'm 99% sure you'll say "No because...." so whatever reason you have, just apply that to me defending Karnos.

I'll butt in and say that it makes Thor look worse, but is not damning by itself. Just like your defense of Karnos and attempt to find counter-wagons makes you look worse, but is not damning by itself. You reasonably fit the profile of what the last wolf might look like. OTOH you're far from a lock for the position. That's what reading, re-reading, and considering all angles is for. One of Thor's complaints about you is that you're not really putting your energy into finding the last wolf, but rather into just defending yourself.

To the extent this is fair, as either alignment you're better off putting more energy externally (scum-hunting or fake scum-hunting, depending) instead of internally (defending). It's more challenging and more rewarding that way as well.
/rant

[mhsmith0]

It's not.

And I will not even think for one second that the night kill is telling.

I can link you a game where someone made an insensible NK and it bit me in the butt to prove my point.

NK motive is not conclusive in and of itself. It is a piece of evidence. Everything is evidence. VCA is evidence. Meta is evidence. The quality and reasoning behind peoples' votes is evidence. etc etc

That NK motive analysis worked badly for you in one game does not discredit its meaning or usefulness generally. Moreover, that you do not want to talk about it does not mean that you are in charge of the conversation. If you don't want to talk about it, don't talk about it. But others can and will consider it as they deem appropriate. If that offends you, too bad.

[mhsmith0]

I can give you an example of where my wolf team LOST a game in part because of kill motive (not meta). Fruit Salad
mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/1337-Fruit-Salad-Mafia
Crunkus is last wolf, town is:
Trafficone
LordJVK
Revival
UDC
sjg

coming off a wolf lynch

UDC and sjg are largely pocketed at that point. Lord and Revival are screaming about how crunkus needs to die, Traffic looks a bit sketchy bit is overall reasonable about how crunkus needs to die. Crunkus shoots revival. Lord laughs his ass off about how shitty the shot was, traffic makes a clear analysis about how no one other than crunkus could reasonably have made the shot, complete with a thoughtful and interesting "here's where each of us shoots if we're the last wolf" bit, and crunkus BARELY squeezes through the day (and shouldn't have) and then F3 is an easy lynch of crunkus.

NK motive wasn't ALL that doomed him, but it absolutely hurt.

[mhsmith0]

Do you think scum are gonna be predictable?

Scum are gonna make whatever kill they deem appropriate to win them the game. This can be by matters of either mapping their game out in the correct or for WIFOM aka making a kill that is unlikely for them to make in most POVs.

Right. Wolves will do what they think is best. But generally speaking, a wolf who isn't Thor would really want to get rid of Thor ASAP. That's a fundamental motivation behind what most players here would do if they were the last wolf. But Thor isn't dead. And yes, it's meaningful. What it means is open to interpretation and debate. But it's alignment-relevant information that can and should be part of the discussion, even if you don't like it.

[mhsmith0]

I would put at near 100% that scum is within Giga, Wing, mhsmith, and Tenshii.

I can accept that maybe scum didn't bus Karnos, but the idea that scum didn't vote KTS seems highly unlikely.

Talk about why? I'd think that wolves would, all things considered, prefer being off wagon, both to avoid heat and to potentially set up the next mislynch.

[mhsmith0]

Oh yeah, you should never just let yourself be hardcore WIFOM'd by a single NK, especially going into LYLO. Most of the time, you let your townbeard hang around, but it's not impossible to choose something else and gambit. In general though you let the townbeard stick around - the game RC just finished, open 645 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=66955 had Zack the IC stick around all game because he'd been pocketed, which ultimately (in part) led to the town loss.

But yeah, it could always be a gambit, especially in LYLO. At this particular stage of the game, though, a gambit is, while not impossible, relatively less likely. Bluntly speaking, Thor is the best town player here (if town). Letting him live incurs a potentially serious cost. For a wolf not to shoot Thor, it's either because Thor is the wolf, or it's a mistake, or the wolf thought that there was a particular gain that was worth incurring this cost. It's not a big neon sign saying "only this person would do it", but it gives some insight into what the wolf is up to, possibly into the wolf's mindset, etc. So yeah, it's worth considering. But no, it's not automatically clearing or damning to anyone.

[mhsmith0]

IMO, NK motive points to a likelier wolf inside {Thor, Tenshii, Rosske}. Not any kind of lock result or close to it, but it's a piece of evidence. I don't think Gig ever wants to shot not Thor there, ditto Luna. Any consensus town read who, if the last wolf, is in great shape to potentially coast to the finish, would (presuming they are thinking critically about their decisions) shoot Thor last night and never look back.

I also think it's highly likely (though not certain) that as last wolf you'd shoot Thor there so as to lock in his read of you as derpy town but not wolf. I'd represent myself as also unlikely to let Thor live, but since that's self-meta, you should take it with a grain of salt (even though I'd happily SPK my way through the player list and try to pull my ass out of the fire when it was "my turn" at 5p or 3p).

So in terms of NK motive, it's suggestive. Not conclusive, but it's evidence, and worth considering. Or I'm just WIFOM'ing and confusing you because I'm the last wolf, in which case what I'm talking about carries a much different meaning.

[mhsmith0]

SPK = Strong Player Kill. i.e. if you're a wolf, just kill the best player in the field as a generically optimal shot. Not sure what you're referencing wrt smokescreen though.

[mhsmith0]

@Tenshii: I think you'd need to ask rosske. It's not obvious to me exactly what he was trying to achieve with those posts.

[mhsmith0]

Or I'm just WIFOM'ing and confusing you because I'm the last wolf, in which case what I'm talking about carries a much different meaning.

why would you say that e_e

Why wouldn't I? If I'm town, I'm either challenging you to see how you react or I just don't really care about making vaguely suspicious-looking posts, and if I'm a wolf, I'm trying to manipulate you in some way. What do you think it means?.

[mhsmith0]

@mh Hypothetically Transcend is scum and Thor is town....

Transcend wants to shoot Thor because?
Transcend wants to shoot Io because?

Hypothetically Trans is last wolf. Trans's optimal shot is Thor. Trans could be running a scam, or could be lazy in his NK thinking. But in general he's probably going to want to SPK and push through to the end. If he's doing something else, it's probably with the goal of mislynching Thor in the final three, and with that in mind, it makes sense to evaluate Trans in the context of that kind of plan. Is he actively prepping the way forward for an eventual ML of Thor, for instance?

[mhsmith0]

SPK = Strong Player Kill. See http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p8250637

[mhsmith0]

I think you're correct in that if I were scum I had several more reasons to kill Thor > Io.

But this is just one kill.

What if it's a gambit on my behalf (just like PJM).

I can guarantee that it's not.

But how come you trust it's not?

Do I fully trust it? No. Is it a piece of evidence that makes me less likely to want you dead? Yes. It goes against the framework of what I'd expect if you were the last wolf, which means that either my framework is wrong (and I certainly need to keep an eye out for this), or you're just not the last wolf.

[mhsmith0]

lol meant to post this a while ago. oops. Anyway...

So among the players who were around to take the shot (excluding Io since she's dead and flipped green):

Would very likely just kill Thor

mhsmith0 (you can believe me or not, but if I'm the last goon I'm shooting Thor basically 100% of the time and lock in that town read he had of me while getting rid of someone who'd be especially likely to catch a screwup of mine)
Luna Fox (just generically obvious kill, she has zero reason to "rock the boat", and in a world where she's gonna pull the strategic sub out stunt, she's gonna leave her replacement with a town bereft of its strongest player)
Transcend (gets rid of someone who's shown on and off suspicion of Transcend [without the kill really seeming to point to Transcend] ), as well as a voice who Transcend wasn't able to influence)
gigabyteTroubadour (caveat here that they may not have fully thought it through, but their optimal move is always a thor shot last night)

Constrained options, no really good shots to spread around suspicion:

Thor665

Others

Tenshii - expressed in 1721 that he didn't see why Thor would be an obvious first shot. Also could have been an intentional avoidance of a shot against someone who went after him pre PC flip
Rosske - could have been an attempt to silence Io, could have been a shot by someone who just hasn't been particularly dialed into the game.

[mhsmith0]

Why would Rosske want to "silence" Io?
Io was pushing a Rosske as town concept prior to his death.
That would be like Rosske wanting to silence me.

Yeah... Late night posting, got mixed up. The framework for rosske motive there would really just be to shoot a town read, or basically a result of not being dialed into the game. It's not impossible (likelier than some others), but seems like a weak case. Plan to skim a bit tonight but prob. won't have much to say until weekend.

[mhsmith0]

PC is the main lynch I want right now. Worst case scenario, non-contributing VI is lynched. Best case scenario, scum is lynched. Anything else, I'd have to reevaulate. I've kinda been debating on hopping on the Karnos bandwagon for the past few days, mainly cuz I do think that they plan on fighting to the death and they won't stop attacking each other until it happens, even to Day 2, 3, etc. So the sooner we can stop it the better.

@ Luna, can you explain your reads? All of them? Also how do you keep track of your reads? Do you just keep track of them in your head? Do you write them down on a notepad? Or what?

@ Io, who's Karnos's partner?

@ Thor, who's Karnos's partner?

I will say that if this a bus it's kinda weird. "Yeah I suppose I might possibly find may way onto that thing" is like not even slightly something that looks like doing it for the town credit. The flip side is it could be an empty post designed to make it look like tenshii was cool w a karnos lynch... but what's the point? Soft-pushing that a buddy lynch is acceptable... to reduce the association w karnos after a flip? If karnos flipped green this could be an opportunistic back off of a read in order to let the lynch happen, but he didn't.

And the hard defense on karnos at http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8157836 is weird if a buddy too. That was l-1, karnos was always gonna die at that point (even if temporarily saved he'd always be a scum-spect), that's either the wifom machine, a wolf who doesn't care how bad that makes him look at first glance, or a townie who just honestly had a really bad read there.

Idk. I was thinking a re-read would make a tenshii case seem clearer but it doesn't really.

[mhsmith0]

What's your read on trans thor? Sounds like you think he's super derpy town; do I have that correct or do you carry any suspicion on him?

[mhsmith0]

Gimme 24 hours, I'm doing a full re-read tomorrow. Need to sort my feelings on tenshii/rosske, see if anything pings on thor or not. You're basically lock town for luna's ISO and departure. Thor ought to be a strong town read too, but it's still really weird that he's still alive; I kinda figured he'd be dead N3 if it got that far, and I wouldn't really have to think deeply about him beyond "he's consistently clear about saying he doesn't bus, he'd have been bussing here, and it didn't seem like a bus, therefore he should be town".

Trans is the high volume poster by a LOT, which should indicate town for most people, but he also swamped the thread in http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=66713 as a goon and won so idk. Probably should read that a bit more carefully (I'd skimmed it a while ago) to see if/how it compares to this one.

[mhsmith0]

I'd skimmed it quite a while ago. IIRC it was due to open 644 where I was trying to sort Dunnstral. Who died N1 in Trans' win, so it was somewhat limited in utility.

I think I gave it a very quick look like a week or two ago as well, but trans wasn't really my priority sort so it didn't really get much attention on my end. Other than that he was said to have done a very good job (specifically, someone mentioned, either in that game or in a different one in reference to it, that he did a great job of faking emotions like paranoia and some other stuff, I don't recall the details).

[mhsmith0]

If I thought that I had a good sense of Thor's meta as a wolf, i'd be meta'ing him, but I don't really quite get how to separate town him from wolf him. I might re-skim some of his wolf games to see if anything sticks out, but at least right now I don't get anything from that. I haven't played with anyone else who's still alive (I'd played w karnos before, both town, but here the case pushed against him decently enough without my needing to really think on meta), and I don't think I've really read anyone else here either (I'd skimmed Luna some time ago, a town/wolf game, haven't really meta'd anyone else I don't think).

[mhsmith0]

Unless you think Thor & I are the sort of players who would bus each other day 1.

Io, is this and post #70 what lead you to believe that Karnos is adamant about Thor's lynch? If not, could you tell me what I missed?

Karnos, how are you reading Thor at the moment?

Thos *is* acting scummy, though not as much as Io, and I only have one vote.

The problem I have with Thor is his logic is inconsistent. He thinks his read is so good he can trust you as town after only a couple posts. Okay, maybe his read is so good, but if you accept that he is so good at reading people, then shouldn't he pick his own scum to vote, based on his amazing reads? Instead he chooses to sheep you. It's like he is saying he is so good at reading people that he is 100% convinced you are town, but at the same time he isn't confident enough in his reads to independently vote on his biggest scum read. It's a weird inconsistency to me.

There is one perfectly logical conclusion, is that he read you as town and I was his biggest scum read, and that would make perfect sense... but when he was questioned about his vote, he didn't say that was the case... he just said he was sheeping you. It's like he doesn't want to take personal responsibility for the vote, doesn't want to be associated with it. He wants to support the wagon on me but give himself a nice out after I flip town.

This (and the rest of their back and forth) is one of those things that just makes it really hard to see Thor as karnis's buddy. What wolf boldly misreps his buddy in this way at that point? The push without a vote dampens it a bit, but it seems a lot more like "pushing a villager wagon without being on it" than it does "fake distancing/theater push on a buddy". The sheer depth of their back and forth on d1 just makes it incredibly hard to see Thor as the goon here.

[mhsmith0]

The sequence around here
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=525

is pretty impressive from Rosske if he's karnos's partner. Luna votes karnos, transcend snap-votes luna, and rosske pushes transcend about it. there's nothing really there at that spot to suggest he's hard-pushing a counter-wagon to karnos, or that he's busy bussing karnos for the town credit, etc. Not hard-clearing, but it seems fairly hard to fake that there.

[mhsmith0]

There's an interaction tell that I like to use from time to time, see:

Spoiler: interactions as a tell

the basic theory

Scum have no genuine questions of their brethren, so it is difficult to appear to engage in earnest, and often they don’t even think to try, beyond light banter and distancing votes.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8210384
as a recent example (BBT/random flipped wolf, the third was kuroi, who they had ZERO interactions with despite all three of them talking quite a lot)


Moreover, this seems to work for karnos as a wolf (notably, in a game he won)

Double ISO of him + ranger (the team)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

# posts where he's talking TO ranger (his partner): 1
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p7922083
and that wasn't an interesting post, more of a shade-throwy post

# posts where ranger is talking to him: ZERO (unless I missed something)

Note that here I'm counting interactions as talking TO someone (clear response to a post, asking/answering a question, etc) as opposed to talking ABOUT someone.

So here's my loose count of interactions to/from karnos:

Spoiler: interactions

Still Alive
Trans 388
Thor 149 183 192 195 202 207 210 272 285 290 379 380 390 391 392 etc
smith 231 286
giga 46 49 51 70 72 150 181 186 203 204 208 209 212 213 214 etc
Tenshii 85 384 386
Rosske 399 404 432
Luna 108 142 143 184 187 188 193 194 197 199 200 230 481

Dead
Io a whole bunch
KTS 387 506
PC 198

So at this point that's pretty clearing for thor, giga and luna
(here's a newbie with a thor-dewy team, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go, they talk in 51, 58, 91, 130, 146, 336, and much of it was empty interactions - which compares to Thor's large amount of interactions with LQ, and more substantive interactions w a bunch of other slots too, most notably frog and Zyf)

[mhsmith0]

What about tenshii v Thor feels t/t? Is that a reinforcement of your reads there, or is it the spat in particular that feels that way? If the latter, why?

[mhsmith0]

@Rosske:
So the only time you spoke to karnos in-thread was to ask him

Karnos, why aren't you voting for Thor?

karnos responded with

Karnos, why aren't you voting for Thor?

Because that would require unvoting Io.

your later comments on the subject were

it looked to me Karnos was pushing Thor harder then Io, but voting Io, and that didn't make sense to me. So I asked.

Transcend, when did I contradict myself?

okay so actually after all that
VOTE: Io

So what in karnos's responses to you, or everyone else's discussion, convinced you that Io was a better vote than karnos or Thor?

[mhsmith0]

because it looks like you're bum rushing a wall.

clarify what you mean here? Just that he's not been responsive or something more?

[mhsmith0]

VC 1-3 and 1-4 is strongly suggestive of it being inside {Thor, Transcend, Rosske}
The interactions between karnos and everyone else is strongly suggestive of it being inside {Tenshii, Transcend, Rosske}

The combination of the two points to {Transcend, Rosske} more than any others.

Transcend: Nothing strongly indicative in either direction. I'd agree with Wing's point above that his kill motive is plausible if he wants to set up Thor for a late game mislynch and set up Rosske to get mislynched today. That said, it's kind of weird for him on D1 to be screwing around with vanity one vote wagons (rosske and luna) while his buddy is getting lynched; normally I'd expect bussing or a more active/aggressive effort to save his buddy there. OTOH his luna effort may have been that, just not something that caught on. I need to go back and re-read late D1 to see how strong transcend's counter-wagon efforts were.

Rosske: It's not impossible for him to have kill motive here, but it basically involves him either not paying attention (plausible given his involvement this game I guess), or doing a hail mary WIFOM effort to confuse the town by killing his defender to hope that he somehow shoots up the town read charts as a consequence. That's not impossible, but I'm not sure why I should think that's likely either.

[mhsmith0]

luna is being townread by all when i think she's a reasonably decent candidate for scum. but my vote is vain at this point andi like the points you make about rosske, they more or less parallel mine. with that said i'm comfortable changing my vote.

VOTE: Rosske

sheepy vote here, and it came at a point where rosske was under some stated suspicion. plausible attempt to save karnos here.

[mhsmith0]

Who's your biggest scumread, and who's your biggest townread. Which wagons would you agree to vote on, and which wagons wouldn't you agree with?

Fun times.

KTS, you are my main townread.

I'm voting my scumread, Io. I dunno, can't say I read her as 100% scum. I thought she was just trolling me by spelling my name wrong, yet she has been in complete denial about that... so I have to default back to thinking scum.

Rosske, I get this odd feeling about him like he is trying to be my friend by voting my scumread, but without giving independent reasons for his voting. Maybe if he shared his reasoning and it made sense I could consider him more likely to be town, but his current play gives him a scum lean.

Thor, I'm unsure about. Had some heated back & forth but in retrospect I'm thinking we just both are stubborn and wanted to be right, doesn't mean he is scum. Wouldn't want to push him while he is on V/LA anyway.

The Thor read doesn't seem w/w, rather it seems much more like an attempt to somehow make the pressure go away.

Rosske read isn't completely outside the range of doing a fake read on a buddy, but this seems closer to the range of soft-pushing a possible counter-wagon to himself.

[mhsmith0]

Luna I'm reading you townier then I am KTS so that's why I'm more curious about why KTS is reading someone i think is weird as town. Right now understanding KTS's reasoning and motivation is more pressing to me than understanding yours. And KTS didn't give me much honestly unless I'm willing to blindly trust someone else's meta.

reasonable response to luna's question

[mhsmith0]

Looking at karnos's two D1 defenders...

Spoiler: late D1 posts

Tone

Ok so you like the tone, but you've only seen karnos as town right? Why do you think tone is AI and not just indicative of karnos playing style in general?

Okay look I was at work on a tight schedule to give you an answer.

I'm not gonna suck this guy off, but he's town because of several reasons

1. My past game match with him parallels him right now, he's acting like noobtown.

2. The tone given in his posts appears genuine and consistent. No mood swings like other players.

3. His vote on Io seen as "reaching" is another reason I solidly townread him. While I don't think that he is voting mafia at the moment, I think that his vote was justified and the way he voted was towny. I just think it's wrong.

I can probably think of more, but those are the three main reasons.

@mh So I will preface this with saying that I think Karno's 70 is NAI. This can be town asking an earnest question (as he justfied in 140). This can be mafia, as you guys are interpreting it. Therefore, it is NAI. Does this logic make sense?

75 - Io attacks Karnos on an NAI post
83 - Making implications on yet another NAI. Then trying to support her argument by putting words into Karno's mouth. Karnos being adamant about a Thor lynch =/= Indirect attack
89 - Io retracts the fact she made an implication. Then runs back 83.

Even if I was stretching that a little bit his reaction to the accusation by voting me is plenty enough to make a full case on its own because really just accusing your accuser for stretching an interpretation a little isn't even a defense it's just dodging the accusation entirely to get me to stop attacking him. A defense from him wouldn't have even been that hard to make as all he would have needed to do was to explain how I was interrupting his intentions wrong.

Accusing for stretching an interpretation is a valid defense. And he did point out how it was wrong.

And do you think karnos has defended himself in an honest and forthright manner? I feel like his defense has been sketchy, like he doesn't want to engage with the the actual case being made. And there's been a lack of clarity towards what he was even trying to do with his original posts (attack? Not attack? Just Thor? More than that?) that suggests that he's manly interested in just making the case go away.

Yep. Not exactly the way I would've wanted it but good enough. What posts made you feel this way?

Pps players who are bad town or mislynch bait type get more room to screw up in general before you can be sure they're wolves. It's annoying, but part of the game.

That is sooooo degenerate. Getting away with being bad town just because you've done it in the past is words I can't even explain. What actions would they have to do to convince you they's scum? Aka if they get "more room," where is the line drawn?

I could explain why in detail but it'd involve text walls and based on the way things have gone down I figure that town isn't actually interested. But some of the highlights:

I'm interested

"I meant ____" is a specific, direct answer. Karnos didn't do that

Semantics

Tenshii is working fairly hard at developing that read and thinking it rhough, to the point where the town read on karnos seems earned, and the push against his voters seems consistent with the stated perspective.

Transcend's read here isn't completely lazy, but it does lean that way, and shows a notable lack of concern with considering karnos's scum game (vs his town game) as opposed to just karnos as a player. It's a poor level of scrutiny given the situation, and suggests a lack of ownership of that read, to the point where "he's legitimately town reading karnos and that's why he tried to save him" wasn't a perspective that strongly holds together. Plausible, yes, but also entirely plausible that he was just looking for counter-wagons to his buddy and avoided putting together a strong defense becuase he knew there wasn't a good defense to be made.

[mhsmith0]

wait never mind

VOTE: Giga

nice slip, dude.

you said you townread kts most of the game, but you were willing to put him into what you thought was L-1 and told me to vote him so he could self hammer.

gott'em.

KTS, Rosske, and Luna are the only people I want to lynch and in that order.

It kind of does, if you're sure you're partner's going to get lynched and not self-hammered, it throws off the town's traing of thought.

wait never mind

VOTE: Giga

nice slip, dude.

you said you townread kts most of the game, but you were willing to put him into what you thought was L-1 and told me to vote him so he could self hammer.

gott'em.

well at least i redeemed myself from that garbage of a d1 i had.

good game though. slip-ups happen sometimes
pedit: o.

wait no.

no no no.

my vote was on rosske and i gave a solid reason to vote him, and you just votehopped to KTS.

nope. not happening. it's curtains for you buddy.

the thought in here is interesting though; does scum!transcend hop on and then hop off giga on a dime like that? This is the closest thing to a sequence that gives me decent feelings on Transcend. Need to think that through a bit more I guess.

[mhsmith0]

I'm bad at this. I thought this was town!kts since his play nearly replicated last time i played with him. Then again, i thought the same thing about karnos and look where that got me. Sig changes when i get home.

This is the first game I've won without voting a single scum all game.

Somewhat town-indicative reactions to KTS fake claim. OTOH, giga's looks substantially more genuine.

That leaves PC and Rosske, I think. Rosske could be town from the township, so lynch PC tommorow. Rosske's hammer on me was iffy as fuck though.

KTS last will. Adds wolf equity to rosske.

[mhsmith0]

me too!

VOTE: PhantomCobalt

How long will this twilight take?

This was a pretty awkward hop onto a wagon post hammer.

[mhsmith0]

Decent non-info kill option from scum.

Why did you think this was a decent non-info kill option? Io had a low post count, but had actively staked out positions (including a town read on rosske). I'm not going to say it was a terrible kill (she'd been productive in her postings), but it was a surprising kill. As a counter-example, I think that a shooter going for a "decent non-info kill option" would probably have shot giga, since that avoids eliminating someone with a meaningful counter-consensus opinion, or just you for obvious reasons. Do you disagree?

[mhsmith0]

Mhsmith has towntold a bit, but his d1 was also weird and the way he voted karnos was weird, I can see a possible bus there. Plus he responded to KTS' flip in a weird way. Like he was an advocate for his lynch all day, KTS claims scum, mhsmith said that he was trolling. One final thing that concerns me about him, and this is recently, but he said that Rosske is in his wolf pool, but has made no conscious effort to lynch him and laughed off every attempt I've made to lynch him.

I think his case is basically this, which is IMO a really lazy case. Some notes:

1) I'd note that my reaction to kts flip wasn't weird; IMO it was obvious the moment kts started spamming reads. Instead of actively playing along in an obviously fake way (since it was obvious to me it was a gambit) I let it play out. I guess I could have jumped in before he claimed gambiting, but I fail to see what the point of doing so would have been.

2) I don't see how the way I voted karnos was weird and bus-like.

3) wrt rosske, I'm making an active effort to decide who between him and transcend is the better lynch, or if somehow someone else becomes the better lynch. I also don't think I've "laughed off" transcends attempts; do you think I have, or that's a legitimate thing to read into my iso?

[mhsmith0]

It was the best of games, it was the worst of games...

[mhsmith0]

Oh and also i fos luna fox for early defense on me before i had even allotment told.

Karnos' response to the questionnaire doesn't read fabricated to me.

VOTE: Luna Fox

[

Honestly tho Transcend's logic is so far out there.
That i hardly believe they'd try to mislynch me with it.
So maybe they're prob town.

It's notable that transcend didn't comment on the actual case developing against karnos, just the relative non issue of whether the rqs response was forced (even though his #7 did look awkward). "Distract the town from the karnos case" is a plausible scum reason to have pushed Luna there without actually being interested in her lynch.

[mhsmith0]

I look at every slot in the game other than transcend and I can think of a reasonably convincing reason to town read them. Wrt transcend the closest thing is the reaction to the kts fake wolf claim... And

I'm bad at this. I thought this was town!kts since his play nearly replicated last time i played with him. Then again, i thought the same thing about karnos and look where that got me. Sig changes when i get home.

This is the first game I've won without voting a single scum all game.

Aren't super hard posts to fake. Best guess at this point
VOTE: transcend

[mhsmith0]

Incidentally, wrt the kts fake scum claim thing, another one of those moments where I'm like "no shit thats what's going on" was http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8194138, where it was super obvious dgb was softing a doctor claim, but apparently no one in the game (including the wolves!!!) picked up on it. So idk.

[mhsmith0]

Given the fact that you're a pretty reasonbaly likely Mafia, and reasonably likely to get lynched today, what are your top two lynches and why? I see rosske, who's #2? unless you can convince us the case against you is unreasonable, the lynches are going to be you and (if you're town) two others. The most town-positive thing you can do is to fight your lynch and/or clearly and convincingly point us to who it should be instead. Currently the town isn't buying rosske; since he's your stated top suspect, why is the town case on him wrong?

[mhsmith0]

lynch #1:

fuck

lynch #2:

you

Going out with a bang I see.

[mhsmith0]

Specific arguments have been advanced about rosske being town. Why are those specific arguments wrong? "I've made my case I don't feel like repeating myself" isn't helpful. Engage with what people are saying if you're town. Or just start yelling and leave us to guess whether you've given up as a wolf or just don't care as town.

[mhsmith0]

The sheer contempt in transcend there is kinda interesting. Compare that to his iso in his scum game, notably

i'm so fucking pissed off that alpaca flipped town. i pushed his lynch super hard because i thought he was mafia and town would be in basically autowin.

also i reread the entire fucking game overnight, but ignored scout since i thought he was gonna die.

i concluded bacde/lowell mafia.

not voting yet.

Where he talks about being pissed off while pretty clearly not actually being pissed off. I think that's a hard engagement to fake as a wolf.
UNVOTE: transcend
Still suspicious of him, but his reaction there is highly consistent with a townie who thinks he's surrounded by a bunch of total idiots. I don't think he fakes the contempt dripping through his posts if he's a wolf there. It's really hard to do.

[mhsmith0]

Deadline is Saturday sometime I think.