Mini 581 - Andy's Death - Over

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Random vote: avinashv

First post.

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This setup would be absolutely shattered by a massclaim.

It's also safe to say there won't be any fake claims.

Explain? Sorry, but I'm really new at this. Couldn't/Wouldn't everyone just claim to be a townie?

FBI Agent has no reason to. While this does have the unfortunate side effect of outing the lone town power role, it has the benefit of giving us a single confirmed townie (or near-confirmed) on D1. And quite frankly, I'd prefer a confirmed townie to a cop who is looking for one single person who may die before even giving us results.

The scum are forced to either fake-claim FBI Agent, thus giving themselves away, or claim townie, giving us our confirmed. It's their choice, really.

But wouldn't the SK just kill the SK finder immediately?

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And don't you realize that if we haven't killed the SK or scum by D3, it's pretty much over for us anyways?

And isn't that why we should keep the SK Finder around instead of needlessly sacrificing their self to have a slightly better chance of lynching mafia/sk on the first day?

JDodge has seriously misrepresented the stats by not taking into account the night action.

By Jdodge's route, we have 4/7 chance of hitting town today, and the SK has a 7/7 chance tonight. Lynching normally thre's a 5/8 chance today and a 2/7 chance tonight.Do the sums, and that comes to a 16/28 chance of having 2 townies dead with JDodge's plan, and 5/28 lynching normally.

vote JDodge

Why did you post such a bogus math argument?

And why are

you

using such a bogus math argument such as "7/7" (would SK ever kill themselves?) Why are you saying "2/7" when assuming we lynch town it's actually 4/6?

Yeah I agree with you here.. looking at that, it looks like Jenter's math argument is even more bogus than yours. I think he says 7/7 meaning 100% chance that the SK will obviously kill the SK Finder. And the 2/7 thing was definitely wrong too.

All right, I guess I should vote. I can either put JDodge at L-1 or make it a tie between JD and avinas. (noting that JD and avinas are the two dissenting votes.) As a town, we seem pretty committed to either JD or avinas as scum, so I think voting for anyone else would pretty well be a waste of time.

I'm going to base my vote on one main thing:

I don't think JDodge is the SK finder.

He's the most vocal proponent of massclaim, repeatedly saying that the SK finder should have no reason not to claim. If he's truly 100% behind that statement, then if he were the SK finder, he should say so.

So, he isn't the SK finder.

So why such a push to identify the finder? It's at least possible it's because he's the SK.

vote: JDodge

I definitely don't think putting JDodge at L-1 right now is a good idea. His insistence of the mass claim is suspicious, but I don't think its enough to lynch him right away.

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Ythill: I

did

think it through; don't patronize me.

Go back and look at my post one more time. I agreed with him that

the FBI agent has no need to false-claim

.

Except that the FBI agent will just be killed N1.. is that not a reason to false-claim?

My vote that was initially random conveniently stays on avina, just for being 2nd most suspicious, and I don't want to vote for JDodge because I don't think what he's done is really lynch-worthy right now, especially when people like Dave have only posted once.

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FoS: camisade

. I'm your second most suspicious, but Jdodge isn't lynch-worthy? Then who's your most susipcious.

I'm saying that I'm not going to vote for Jdodge right now.. because 1 vote will lynch him, and I think it's too premature to lynch someone right now. he is my most suspicious.

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I stand by my claim that massclaim wins games, that is a personal game philosophy of mine as adopted from Pie_is_good.

So if you were FBI, you would claim right now??

@ JD: Thanks for taking the brunt of the opening assault. We’re finally getting some information into the thread. How much of your argument was meant to trap overzealous scum? Based on reactions, whom do you suspect?

What made you think his argument was mean to "trap overzealous scum" at all?

@ cam: You don’t like Seth putting JD @ L-1, but you don’t say anything about Seth’s alignment. Why haven’t you questioned the person who undertook and stood by an action you think is bad for the town?

I thought it was implied in my post, but looking back it wasn't really. I don't think it was really scummy though, more newb-y.

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If I were FBI, I would not claim unless I knew there would be a massclaim. Stop fishing.

FoS: camisade

I'm not fishing, I was wondering if you would practice what you preach. And I hate how your refuse to back down from your stupid argument, mass claim would really do basically nothing for us.

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@camisade -- #72 was a big deal for me. You're essentially attacking him for having (and sticking) to an opinion. In #70 I most definitely agree with JDodge that you were fishing. Furthermore, JDodge is no longer at L-1, so you could happily vote for him, but you haven't done so yet. You just made my number 1 suspect.

Unvote, vote: camisade

.

I'm attacking him for sticking to a scummy opinion that's bad for the town. I'm not voting for him because it would put him at L-1. I don't want think he's lynch worthy. I'm fine with my vote on you because of your defense of JDodge.

I've played with JDodge before, and his play-style is...interesting . I never have a good read on him, because it seems that he's always a little scummy.

I don't think JDodge is a strong lynch candidate based on the reasons presented here---I don't particularly have a read one way or another on him, and these stats are just that...stats. It doesn't make him lynch-worthy at all.

You've never really posted any reasons why you think JDodge is so innocent.

Plus this argument against me seems sort of contradictory:

your post number 3:

FoS: camisade

. I'm your second most suspicious, but

Jdodge isn't lynch-worthy

? Then who's your most susipcious.

when you said the exact same thing later..

I don't think JDodge is a strong lynch candidate based on the reasons presented here---I don't particularly have a read one way or another on him, and these stats are just that...stats.

It doesn't make him lynch-worthy at all.

But I think that might just be you misunderstanding what I said earlier, which I explained but you never replied to.

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By the way, I'm going to be gone Friday and back late Sunday. I'm going to my Aunt's wedding and probably won't have internet access.

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Now when we consider this, you must ask yourself "Well then how do you scumhunt?". The answer to this is simple - you must know your opponent before you do battle with them. You must know what the other players will do in whatever situation. Said is the barrier between OK players and good players - good players know what their opponents will do in any given situation, and OK players will know what the majority will do in any given situation.

But players can change their play style depending on what game they are playing in. If I acted a certain way as scum in game x, it doesn't mean that they'll act the same way in game y as scum.

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just got back from my trip. I'll post later tonight

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@camisade: I know it's just one day late, and I've been guilty of lateness myself in other games, but where's that post?

Yeah I'm sorry; I've been busy with school and have been sick. I promise I'll post a big one later.

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I rearead the thread, here are my thoughts. I'm not going over the massclaim thing much. That's been beaten to death.


JDodge* Your posts about the universal scumtell thing and metagaming lately seem just condescending. You said that Jenter's lack of time to metagame is laziness.

Really?

I can't spend every second I'm on the computer looking at 7 other player's post history. Not because I'm lazy, but because I'm busy and I've been sick lately.


Dave* You just seem to repeat what the majority says and lurk. Do something else, because if you're scum or not: you're useless.



Ythill* He quickly accepts JDodge's defense (which was"massclaim wins games; deal with it.") Then asks

How much of your argument was meant to trap overzealous scum?

Uhh, what? You're assuming that JDodge's massclaim debate was a trap. I questioned you on this before and you never responded, but when JDodge voted you that got your attention.You said:

However, my question suggested that there may have been (town friendly) ulterior motives for bringing up your opinion.

But it looks like your question more stated than suggested.

Sethaniel* putting J-Dodge at L-1 was stupid, but as I said before I saw it as a newbie move, not a scummy one. Post more.

avinashv* The explanation you gave about your post agreeing with Jdodge's massclaim just seemed like backpedaling, and you were rather hostile in your answer.

Ythill: I

did

think it through; don't patronize me.

I've already posted everything else about you.

Jenter Brolincani* I can't really get a read on you, nothing overtly scummy in my eyes. I do agree with your argument on metagaming. I agree with avina on this:

@Jenter -- firstly, it's a major peeve of mine when people feel the need to do a PBPA, include themselves and call town.

I don't know if I think that is scummy or not, but it definitely made my eyes roll far into the back of my head.

goborage* I'm getting fairly protown vibes; you haven't posted about much except JD & Avin and the claim thing. What is your opinion on the other players?

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I'd like to see a PBPA by Jenter. All he's posted lately is things about meta/scumtells/etc.

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oops; I meant to say JDodge not Jenter*

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Why do you think it's just playstyle? JDodge is far more experienced than I am (or indeed pretty much anyone else here), he should easily know better than to argue in favour of anti-town actions.

When did massclaim become anti-town again?

Statistically speaking yes. Informationally speaking no.

There really isn't even such thing as massclaim in this game, considering there is only one claim to be made really.

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Can't we all just get along?

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Meh, I dont really have a good read on JDodge at the minute. I thought his Day 1 argument was silly, I grant you that, but i have seen no evidence that he is lynch worthy today.

Who would you say is?

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Ythill seems town because the bulk of his posts are non-opinionized inquisitive posts designed to give the impression of scumhunting while not committing to any actual stance.

This is a strategy that would befit mafia, who need to rely on the mislynch but would work against the SK, who must only avoid the lynch himself. So you are, in essence, accusing me of being mafia.

I think his post was meant to be sarcastic.

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@ cam: Taking the above as an accusation, do you think it portrays me as mafia or the SK? If the SK, please explain how. Others are invited to answer these questions as well.

I think it could portray you either way. I think you're wrong in saying that strategy doesn't benefit SK, because it benefits both.

I dont think that he should be lynched yet because this is my first game...

The n00b card comes out. Yet… (1) Your opinion on mass claims demonstrates at least a basic understanding of the game. (2) You cite your playstyle several times in defense. Can you explain how someone making the fourth post of his first game would know what his playstyle was? (3) You’ve got the Futurama avatar, which demonstrates knowledge of site trends. Yes, I see your post count; the account is probably an alt.

(2) It's not like you can't have an idea of how you will play before you play.

(3) Oh please, if you click any thread you'll get bashed over the head with the Futurama avatars (which IMO are stupid. ) I recently returned to this site about the same time that Dave signed up and it's not like I've never seen one of those before. Plus I'm pretty sure it even has a wiki entry.

Unvote; vote Dave.

BTW, you’re not off the hook avinas. Question for you: why did you ask Dave his reasons for voting you when it was plain he had not?

I think you jumped at the opportunity to attack & vote Dave to take your vote off avina, rather than Dave actually becoming your most suspicious player.

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And forewarning of the hammer is

extremely

pro-town.

Thanks for this, can you tell me what other actions that you've made are pro-town?

Gob says I applied a time constraint but I’ve done no such thing. Any one of those three could have unvoted but they did not. I could have simply hammered in #244 but I did not. What I applied was

a time extension

before hanging the player who has been my explicit #1 suspect for most of the day.

I honestly would have unvoted, not that it means much now, and I never got a chance. -Would it really hurt to wait a little longer for avina? A "time extension" doesn't really do much when that person has no chance to check the thread and see it. You basically said "you have a few hours to post or you're dead" which IS blackmail. That really looks to me just as a way to justify your hammer.

major FOS: Ythill

I would vote now but I'm confused about whether it's lylo. I thought SKs weren't allowed to not night kill?

@camisade and seth: What do you think of these three?

Ythill: Already stated above.

Dave: Agree with you that lack of posting is suspicious and bothersome. SO SO incredibly ironic that he votes for avina because of the lack of posting by him. The whole saying he voted for avina when he never voted for avina thing confused me and I still don't understand it.

JDodge: Very aggressive and contentious, but I don't understand how Jenter can say:

Playing like an antisocial a-hole to everyone in the game consistently does not make it a town tell for you, sorry.

If JDodge acts like this when he's town why is it not a town tell for him? Just because you don't like it doesn't mean he isn't town. But I need to look back at other games by JDodge to see if this is true and get a better read on him.

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In every single game I've played in, any time a townie is lynched

someone

says "I would have unvoted, but you didn't give me enough time.

Thats why I said not that it means much now.

Fix'd :p

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No atm. If discussion starts to stagnate or we can't make a consensus vote then yes.

I agree with you here. As long as we hit either SK or Mafia today then we're still in good shape right? But SK would be better.

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But SK would be better.

Which is why the FBI should claim IMO, but I'll follow consensus. So far we are 3:2 in favor of a claim. In a matter this important, a tie should go to not claiming, so I guess it's all up to Seth.

I don't think that a consensus vote should make the FBI want to claim anyway. The only person that really has a say in this decision is the FBI agent. 3 of the people still in this game are not acting with the best intentions of the town in mind, and whichever way those people vote can greatly affect the outcome of the consensus. So I wouldn't really say it's all up to Seth.

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I didn't want to do this because I didn't see the point unless me or the person I investigated last night came under suspicion for being the SK because that way my identity wouldn't be revealed and we would have still have the same chance of catching the SK. I'm the FBI agent. Last night I had to investigate JDodge, of course. I got an innocent read, doesn't mean he isn't mafia though. I hope I'm making the right decision by claiming.

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Sorrrryyy, I'm here. I'm going to bed soon but I'll review what's happened and I'll post who I think is most likely to be SK.

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Sorry, meant I'd do that tomorrow (Sunday) because I'll have free time.**