Mini 581 - Andy's Death - Over

[Thestatusquo]

What up homies. Will reread tonight and get back at you.

[Thestatusquo]

Sorry for that, guys. I got busier than I thought I would. Also, I apologize in advance, this will be a very long post.

As I went through the thread, I tried to think of who would be the most likely SKs, since obviously once the SK is killed, the town can only lose the game by it's own incompetence. Therefore, the SK should be the first priority. The clear number one choice I came up with Jdodge, which made me highly surprised to see that he was the one cleared of being a SK. Some of my case against him is applicable to him being mafia, but some of it isn't, especially the most damning piece of evidence, which was the day one mass claim. I'm going to post all of it, though, just to show my thought process of my reread.

In order to evaluate actions in mafia, you have to look deeper than the action itself, and look at the possible motives of the action. A lot of good can be garnered from asking oneself "why would X player do this?" When I ask myself who is helped by the day 1 massclaim, the only real player is the SK. Since this is not obvious, and is something that takes a bit of math wrangling to figure out, I don't think it would be "too obvious" a play for the real SK to do it. So we come to jdodge, there, who supported the plan even after it became completely disproven, which is really a nul tell for him anyway. The point was the proposition and cooked numbers.

From there, everyone else in the town left was basically against the plan, with varying degrees of vehemence.

So all that for naught...Sigh...

Then we have the whole argument with Ythill starting on post 185, where he is clearly in the wrong. He claimed that Ythill was a SK, and then gave evidence which was only consistant (in his view) with being a mafia member, while continuing to assert that Ythill is a SK.

His post 237 was another big point for me, both because he's hypocritical (jdodges nomal play style involves tunnel vision to the max, as evidenced in this game.) and I find that if you look at what a player states is scummy, you will often find that displayed in their own posts. In short, people define what is scummy from watching themselves play scum. And also because its a completely non valid attack. If a player thinks that two players are scum, there is nothing, in their own view, more productive than continually saying so. What jdodge asks here is basically "Pretend you don't find me suspicious, vote and pressure someone who you find less suspicious than me." which is completely ridiculous and scummy as hell...

So Jdodge has a higher chance of being mafia than most, in my eyes.

The next person I would look for, based on my own perceptions of how a SK would act, is YThill. This is because to a SK, any lynch is a good one. Therefore, I would expect a SK to keep their options open. To be willing to place subtle attacks and insinuations everywhere, so they could be blown into full-scale assault at any time. In addition, I would expect a SK player to hammer, when possible, because ending the day is good; it doesn;t matter who is lynched so long as that player is not the SK themselves.

Now, the player whos play this game matches that description near PERFECTLY? YThill. Ythill has sat on the fence the whole game, and attacked pretty much everyone at one point or another. If you look at his posts in isolation, you will notice that he has probably called each player "slightly town" or "slightly scummy" once or twice. He only seems to commit to "hard reads" on players when the momentum, and writing, is already on the wall.

Also, the "I waited for players to check in before I hammered so they are just as responsible as I am." is completely bullshit. First of all, you were the agent of action, not them. They did not hammer, you did. You are solely responsible for not giving A a chance to respond to accusations. I would expect an experienced player to do the exact same thing you did: Warn of a hammer immenent, and then hammer after a ridiculously short period of time after people had made a couple of cursory posts. That is exactly what you did, and the fact that you did it makes you more scummy, not less, in my eyes.

I'm just surprised that the rest of you did not pick up on it. Ythill is almost certainly not mafia, but is probably, given the FBI agent reveal, the SK.

Vote: Ythill

[Thestatusquo]

bump.

[Thestatusquo]

So. . .

JD and TSQ voting Ythill
Ythill and Seth voting goborage
gob voting TSQ
cam being replaced.

I suppose I'd like to wait for cam's replacement to see what he/she thinks.

No, how about you discuss the input I gave on the game.

What do you think of my conclusion that Jdodge is likely mafia?

What do you think of my case that Ythill is the SK?

Mafia is not a spectator sport. Give some effing opinions.

[Thestatusquo]

Thank you. Posts like "Hmm...I wish something would happen" when there's plenty to comment on tend to annoy me.

The only part of my case against Jdodge which was dependant on him being a SK was the massclaim.

Set, I gave a specific post number to reference with that point against JDodge. I think if you go read it, you will be more likely to get what I'm getting at. But the main point is that another player was only focusing on one player and was saying it often. Jdodge then told that player that he was being unhelpful for continually saying that. My analysis up top follows from that premise.

I gave reasoning for why Ythills actions are more consistant with that of mafia than town. This is mainly because mafia has a preference who is lynched, whereas the SK does not. Therefore you'd expect a mafia player to display strong opinions on some players, and not others. Ythills behavior pattern does not match this. Instead, a SK would not have any strong attacks until the writing became clear, because to a SK it does not matter at all who is lynched. YThills behavior fits that pattern perfectly.

I think your first point is silly: That he knows SK can choose to not kill. First of all, I would have assumed SK can not kill...That is the sitewide norm. Second, this is an open game. I read all the PMs, as I'm sure several other players did too... That seems much more flimsy to me than a perfect match on an expected behavior pattern.

Is there something else you said against him?

[Thestatusquo]

Should read "Gave reasons why Ythills actions are more consistant with SK than mafia"

[Thestatusquo]

On your behavior: Thats just the point though, you only made such decisions, such as the push on A, when it was completely not dangerous to do so. You did not make a definitive "He's scum" stance in a way which was memorable so that the lynch could clearly be attributed to you. Then you hammered, and at the same time (and this is important) tried to distance yourself from the hammer, by attempting to place some of the blame (read, poisoning the well) of some people who were already on the wagon. The hammer ended up being "Ok, but if I'm scum they are too LOL." which is a pretty bad defense considering they were infinitely less culpable for the hammer than you were.

On "The writing on the wall about me being mafia" I think you're not understanding my point. The point isn't that the SK will never ever say "X is town" or "X is scum" the point is that the SK, as a general principal, will keep his options open. You have also called my role town several times, and you have thought jdodge was scum at several points of the game as well. You have a large net to fall back and vote pretty much any target if you wanted to, whereas the other players in the game do not.

On the hammer: No, thats not how it works. Considering a large % of the town had called for a claim, if you were a townie, it is still in your best interest to let the player claim even if you did not personally need it, because it is good for the town. Keeping the pressure of a player on l-1 is not the same thing as hammering prematurely when pretty much all of the town have expressed a desire to wait. The way you're going about it now makes it seem like you hammered when you did BECAUSE it could be blamed on two other people as well.

6 games makes you a veteran in my eyes. You understand how the game of mafia works. This is not your first game. You have undoubtedly read other games. I think this response was not genuine on your part.

[Thestatusquo]

I think you need to reread what my argument was in "the X is town Y is scum" argument. You responded to exactly what I said I wasn't saying lol.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm sorry that I haven't been keeping up with this game. I hhave been pretty busy as of late with work.

I'll try to contribute a lot in the recent future.

[Thestatusquo]

I am not taking that position at all...

I cant speak for dave, but my guess is that he was fully supportive of that lynch AFTER the claim. That is the major distinction. AFTER the claim. Ythill is directly responsible for cutting off the info before that point was reached. Several people had asked ythill NOT to hammer, and he did so in spite of this, seemingly just to use the argument that they could have unvoted (since it was in the towns best interest to wait for the claim, he should have waited)

Furthermore, You are miss characterizing the argument against ythill. It is not "You are responsible for lynching a townie." Obviously everyone on the lynch is equally responsible in that regard. The argument was instead that he deprived the town of information, and went against the best interests and wishes of the town. Thats a much serious claim, and much stronger than the straw one you just attacked.

[Thestatusquo]

Unvote, Vote: Ythill

In my eyes, better you than me.

Thats a perfectly rational reaction, I think.

but:

One would think you'd have other thoughts on the wagon.

WHat do you think of the case on ythill?

Do you believe he is scum? If so, why did you not vote for him earlier? If not, don't you think it would be more rational to vote for a player who you DO think is scum, and attempt to steer the town that way?

If you had to name 1 player sk and 2 mafia, who would you choose?

[Thestatusquo]

um............ bah?

Man I am good at this game we call mafia.


Anyway, my top suspect is jdodge, as mentioned previously. I think the looking for scum partners is premature. We should be looking for one scum today, and then lynching them. Then tomorrow we can concern ourselves with who is most likely their partner. Remember, we only have one guaranteed lynch at this point, so to start lining up our shots for tomorrow seems strange.

That being said, Jdodges "link me to someone lol" post is ingenuous at best, and presupposes that just because he isn't BEST linked to someone, then he is not scum with them. This ignores the nature of mafia, which Jdodge is well aware of, and also ignores the fact that jdodge is a particularly good player.

I am happy to vote here when the time comes.

[Thestatusquo]

Grimmy is confirmed by lack of counter-claim. This leaves a suspect pool (to me) of Shea, gob and Seth.

gob is best connected to Seth, although his silence on Dave/Shea is odd.

Dave/Shea is unlinkable to me.

Seth is best connected to gob, although his silence on Dave/Shea is odd.

I am most inclined to believe gob/Seth is the scumpair. I would like to ask everyone else for their input.

This is the post, Jdodge. You note everyones connections, and specifically how they are not best connected to you.

[Thestatusquo]

Oh, I see. I missread your post completely. I could probably buy gob as well, but I think that looking for partners today is kind of fruitless. You're my number one choice, and gob would probably be a second.

[Thestatusquo]

Wtf? I basically nailed the SK yesterday... How exactly am I refusing to post more than the bare minimum...

[Thestatusquo]

If you'll notice, I went through a period of inactivity at exactly the same time in every single game I was in. I even accidentally got replaced in one.

I highly doubt that I orchestrated that just so I could avoid posting in this game, especially when there was little to know pressure on me.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm pretty sure we're just going round in circles, and I'm pretty sure I'm ready to vote for JD soon. It would be great if we could get some consensus here and actually have some people posting besides us three.

[Thestatusquo]

Wtf? I basically nailed the SK yesterday... How exactly am I refusing to post more than the bare minimum...

It's also worth noting that I nailed the SK on

day fucking one

and nobody listened. If you're town, stop taking the credit for my actions. If you're scum, stop being disingenuous and taking the credit for my actions.

It's also worth noting that a) my reasons were completely different from yours and therefore can not be attributed to you, but also more importantly b) my comment was very clearly directly in response to him claiming I didn't do enough for the game. So if you're town stop being so defensive of you "accomplishments" and if you're scum stop poisoning my well and get lynched already.

[Thestatusquo]

Gorborage, I'm not answering you deliberately because I feel like it's the only bargaining chip I have to get you to explain why exactly you are voting me and not JD? Your whole today has been attacking JD as being scum with very sparse allusions to me, and considering JD is the one I am going after, and a bus makes zero sense in this situation (pretty much ruling out a me and JD team), I am wondering why you are voting for me and not him.

In a sense, why, in your mind, am I the one who is more likely to be scum than jdodge, and why dear god why do you think a me and jdodge scum team makes any sort of sense?

[Thestatusquo]

Its more likely than entering the game and attacking his partner all out and then saying he's who he wants to swing at lylo.

Also, you didn't answer me why you feel you "can't be wrong" about me. I can't defend against something you've "convinced yourself" of, if you don't tell me what convinced you.

[Thestatusquo]

Thats fair enough, but I don't think seth is scum, I think you and JD are scum, which leaves me the option of just sitting here and taking the vote as a man.

I would point out that linking is a poor substitute for actual scummy behavior, and as I've already said, JD is a good enough player that he would not be obviously linked to someone as scum, but thats just a catchall argument. Your vote on seth, from a town standpoint, is not better than your vote on me, in my eyes, as both he and I are town.

[Thestatusquo]

Vote: Jdodge

Town comeback is feeling really good right now.

[Thestatusquo]

I said that particular point against you amounted to a null tell, actually.

Meh... I'm done with toying with you guys.

unvote, vote goborage.

Good Game, guys.

[Thestatusquo]

It was a well modded game, Andy. Thanks for doing it.

[Thestatusquo]

Pretty sure mvp can't come from the losing side...

[Thestatusquo]

Thanks Ythill.

I think this was one of my better performances.

[Thestatusquo]

It could be your avarar.

you should change it to this one.