Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[Tayl0r Swift]

hmmm im not sure if im supposed to wait for the mod to announce it, but im here and catching up.

[Tayl0r Swift]

27 (reaver) pings me. let me give an excuse for not having any good reads before starting. also isnt pocketing something that only scum would have to do?
50 (judgement) strikes me as wayyy too tryhard for that stage in the game. overanalyzing that much doesnt feel natural. judgements later posts on that page also reek of teaching and trying to score easy townpoints.
74 raya is probably town
104 (italiano) is odd. pretty defensive and finger-pointy and generally sounds like scum trying to sound like theyre posting from a town mindset.
113 (reaver) uh excuse me? where is any of this coming from? booo. this long wall of posts has some good stuff but its too long and its making me suspicious.
150 (frogster) is a good one
152 (judgement) is a good response but NAI and proves that judgement is pretty self-aware in wording, so guess we will have to evaluate content rather than phrasing.
165 (raya) is interesting. raya said she townhunts, but is here pretty aggressive in scumhunting. hmm
180 (frog) is bad. frog seems to really be digging here.

i caught up to the top of page 9. more to come later.

[Tayl0r Swift]

216 (reaver) hmmm... is this another obvious fake? this post is off
235 (frog) might be a wild take but its probably a good one and townie
257 (walter) this is a bad and obvious sheep vote. VOTE: walter
263 (reaver) is a post to come back to after some flips
272 (reaver) not an impressive readlist
315 (reaver) happy to oblige. youre a scumread.

overall walter and reaver are top scumreads.
gamma is probably town.
made it to the top of 15.

[Tayl0r Swift]

i'm also not saying that you should be always anti town as town but it behooves you to do so in the first couple of days so you can actually play the game lmfao

isnt this only true if the other townies are playing scummy? if every townie is obvtown, the game gets pretty easy.

[Tayl0r Swift]

367 (cfj) i dont see this coming from town. why would town want to read someone as town? you only want to read townies as town, so wanting to read someone as town comes off as scum knowing someone is town but seeing their posts as scummy, or maybe SvS

[Tayl0r Swift]

whoops did not mean to hit submit there. sometimes im a bit premature.

407 (nos) uh calling you scum is scummy? by self voting as town arent you necessarily playing against wincon?
413 (gamma) in what world is a self-vote not scummy?
436 (banana) hmm odd timing depending on flips this could be an attempt at a counterwagon?

VOTE: cfj

[Tayl0r Swift]

whoops did not mean to hit submit there. sometimes im a bit premature.

407 (nos) uh calling you scum is scummy? by self voting as town arent you necessarily playing against wincon?
413 (gamma) in what world is a self-vote not scummy?
436 (banana) hmm odd timing depending on flips this could be an attempt at a counterwagon?

VOTE: cfj

inactivity followed by empty statements saying "this is scummy/towny" are scummy

yes because its totally me choosing to be inactive by subbing into a slot... do you feel that ive been inactive since subbing in?

Damn. I really wanted my cfj read to be right, but Taylor is playing pretty on par with how i thought scum would rep in.

how exactly would you expect scum to play? by catching up and offering thoughts?

[Tayl0r Swift]

on the other hand wouldnt scum come up with a better reason for voting me?

cfjs posts are strange. it seems like townie effort but its so random that it almost feels like scum trying to be helpful and pro-town to deflect.

but now cfjs latest post gives me confidence again. thats such bad reasoning for voting someone. voting a slot that replaced out for activity seems so backwards. what exactly about my catchup dont you like?

[Tayl0r Swift]

The only posts of mine you've mentioned are #50 and #357 (and you thought at least the first of those was minor, based on #516.
Based on your stated reads in the catchup, I would have expected you to continue with the walter vote, maybe try to reignite that wagon. Instead you chose to vote me at the end, apparently almost entirely based on #367 (or possibly on some other reasoning you haven't stated), or perhaps simply because it was a large wagon on a townie (which scum would naturally want to push to claim or lynch if they could).

As for voting a slot that replaced out for activity – why do you consider that to be a bad idea? For most people flaking out is not connected with their alignment (and for the few where it's alignment-indicative, it normally indicates scum). sordros didn't post much, and what they

did

react to was pretty much uniquely confined to the least useful posts to react to (normally if someone is town-minded and has limited time to play, they'll try to post about the things where it's most useful, not where it's least useful).

>>"For most people flaking out is not connected with their alignment"
>>votes flaky slot

[Tayl0r Swift]

im a day daycop cop. N_M isnt a daycop of any kind.

[Tayl0r Swift]

I feel a slight tr about the gerain slot after cfj's post and explanation. although such a defense of Gerain seemed very out of the blue.
I find this whole fake guilty thing to be highly suspicious and pr fishing.

I am really tired rn going to sleep.

How was it pr fishing

yeah this. if anything you not being able to get the joke and trying to point out "suspicious" things like this is scummy.

[Tayl0r Swift]

cfj is still my vote and cfj is probably the scummiest person in my view. at the same time im starting to think cfj is just scummy town. thats pure gut though. i still like walter for scum, and could buy gamma, reaver or banana as scum.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Although I think that cfj is town. call it a 70% certainty.

A random player has a 77% chance of being town

i dont think this applies to me

[Tayl0r Swift]

VOTE: walter

[Tayl0r Swift]

hmm these four posts really struck me.

Something that's bothering me generally about this game: why is nobody making a serious effort to change the gamestate? In particular, why aren't the

scum

making a serious effort to change the gamestate? In the situation we have at the moment, there are lots of impatient townies looking for something to do, and if someone made a serious and not-ridiculous case on a scumread of theirs, they would likely get a lot of votes following. That seems like a risky situation for scum if the scumread in question is correct, so I would have expected them to start a wagon of their own, or at least push mine harder. I can only see two real possibilities here; either a) scum are happy with the current gamestate (in which case we should be trying to change it!), or b) scum are not in the thread / out of their depth / have no idea what to do and are simply being inactive as a consequence (in which case we may be able to figure out who they are, directly or via PoE).

Meanwhile, I see attempts to shake things up (such as the whole daycop thing we had recently) that don't ultimately have a huge impact as being unlikely to be from scum; it mostly just helps to get information with which to read players more accurately without making long-term changes to the gamestate, and that seems to only help town.

There are still a lot of players who are alone on their wagons. If anyone's interested in persuading me (and the rest of us) to join them, I'd be interested to hear what you have to say! If not, I guess I'll try doing a full reread of everyone in order to come up with an updated reads list, because something has to happen to get this game moving again (I was hoping that the replacements would help in that respect, but that's going too slowly).

So basically what you're trying to say is scum are happy with the current game state. And the current game state includes you being the top wagon. So you must be town because scum are happy with you being the top wagon and doing nothing about it... all I can read this as is a defense of yourself hidden in lots of words.

i still feel like im mindmelding with raya. thats how i feel about cfj's post.

(PEDIT: re #638)

The reasoning should be correct regardless of my alignment. If you think there's a mistake, please point it out so that I can re-evaluate my reasoning.

I agree that it points towards me as town, but that's hardly a reason not to mention it in thread! Of course, it's harder to be objective about something when it points to you as town, so it's possible I have some confirmation bias here (i.e. "this correctly predicts me as town, so it's more likely to be correct"), in which case it's especially important that you point out any flaws in my reasoning! But "this reasoning benefits CFJ and CFJ is making it" is not a reason to ignore it or consider it invalid.

a) its a bad look that you're the one pointing this out. its also interesting that the game is still stale now despite the wagon on you dying off. mostly. more on that later because i guess we do have 2+ pages today. this post just sounds like scum trying to walk through a townie though process.

If cfj is scum I'm gonna shoot myself in the foot because I think I can make a pretty good case there. With that said I can make a good case for anyone not named sjreaver, frog, or Nosferatu.

But I agree the game is stale, I've fallen out of love with it and it's gone nowhere since I've stepped back. I kind of expected that.

VOTE: Italiano

why this vote? ive really seen nothing so far to indicate you had suspicion of italiano, and this isnt a major wagon, so why join here? seems like now that theres a little momentum on walter that you come in and start a counterwagon. interesting.

Hey Italiano, how's it going? Wagons are great and time to bring fresh energy here.

VOTE: ItalianoVD

yes but why this wagon? i have alarm bells ringing in my head.

[Tayl0r Swift]

People are complaining about something happening but refuse to vote on wagon. Callforjudgment is being scumread. Nosferatu is being scumread. At the moment callforjudgment is the leading wagon so jump on it and we can kill scum. Thrones complaining about wasting time are the ones wasting the time.

You voted me in #382, and since then you've done nothing to push your read on me or try to persuade people to vote for me. (It was unclear from your posting whether you still scumread me or had just left the vote there out of inertia.) Normally, if you're town and think someone's scum, it's worth trying to get more ammunition on them, either to help the wagon get over the line or to help re-evaluate your reads when you discover that maybe a player isn't that scummy after all.

Instead, you've basically been just sitting there, sitting on your read, not even reading the game. (I can tell you aren't reading because you're wrong about the size of wagons: I'm not the leading wagon, but the fourth-largest (third-largest if you ignore the wagon on shelly, which is a joke). The largest wagons are on Walter and on you.)

Also, why haven't you expressed a read since #490? Even if you think you've caught one scum, townies are normally curious about the others as well; and it's nearly always a good idea to allow for the possibility you might be wrong. If nothing else, identifying townies would help make the pool of viable wagons smaller, increasing the chance that your favoured wagon would go through.

VOTE: ItalianoVD

oof yeah i really wanna lynch in cfj, shelly, enigma, or walter. like really really. they cant all be scum but this is some serious opportunism, id be surprised if there arent at least 2 scum in there maybe even all three if walter is scum.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Okay so 573 is where it all started. Then Not_Mafia did his thing. Nosferatu and Frogster followed. Then 579 happened. By the responses in 586 587 & 588, I assumed it was all a joke, but I didn’t know about the roles and whatnot and still don’t (the wiki pages are kinda wack) so I was confused and no one explained it to me so now I’m frustrated.

Then we have 600 (wait for it) Taylor’s post in 602 sounds like scum distancing and fake reading. Then 32 posts later in 634 she votes for Walter which looks like sheeping Not_Mafia.

If the whole claiming nonsense was just jokes and if we’re still joking, then what’s the point of anything?

i mean, you dont think the timing of: a) wagon starts forming on walter b) suddenly the game becomes active and theres a flashwagon thats forming counter to walter on you suspicious? i cant prove that my above posts were made as i read prior to seeing this, but doesnt that suggest that im not merely distancing from cfj but rather trying to evaluate cfj honestly and fairly? isnt reconsidering pro-town?

i voted walter because walter is pretty scummy and its a viable wagon. i left the naked vote to see what reactions would be. the counterwagon and sudden flurry of activity suggest that my walter vote was a good one.

[Tayl0r Swift]

also worth noting that italiano is taking this opportunity of pressure on him and plausible counterwagon and NOT being opportunistic.

[Tayl0r Swift]

i still feel like cfj will be easy to evaluate after some flips, but is a bit messy today. i am suspicious, but dont want to lynch there today. that said, VOTE: shelly

i dont think its in town's best interest to discuss my vote movement at this time, but im happy to discuss the merits of a vote on shelly or the merits of a vote on walter. im guessing raya will understand what i mean based on past mind-melding at the very least.

[Tayl0r Swift]

also worth noting that italiano is taking this opportunity of pressure on him and plausible counterwagon and NOT being opportunistic.

This statement really got me thinking. If you haven't already, I recommend reading Italiano and Walter in double ISO, following how they interact with each other.

The first wagon on Walter starts at #238 by Nosferatu. Italiano's next post, #266, is denouncing it. (At the time, I assumed that this was Italiano reading the situation the same way I was, and townread Italiano for it. I think I was wrong, though.)

Italiano had previously implied a townread or at least "no reason to think scum" read on Nosferatu (#234).
Walter attacked Nosferatu around the time Nosferatu voted Walter (#249, #257, #278).
Soon after, Italiano was attacking Nosferatu too (#281, vote in #294).

The Nosferatu wagon sits at four votes for a while. Then I derail it, based primarily on a gut read (#367).
Italiano places a (what is to me) surprising scumread on me in #381 and vote in #382. (This is the third vote, after RCEnigma and Nosferatu.)
Walter does not join this wagon (although he does ask lots of questions about it, that's natural when it's the largest wagon).
Eventually Walter calls me "70% certainty" of town (#614); this is technically a mild scumread (assuming a 10:3 setup, a hypothetically town Walter would think a perfectly null read was 75% likely to be town.)

The CFJ wagon sits at four votes for a while.
Then it starts shrinking, as Tayl0r moves to Walter (#634); that wagon's now the same size as mine (N_M voted Walter in #600).
Italiano reacts surprisingly strongly to this (#655), in effect complaining that the wagons should be on me and/or Nosferatu.
Italiano then defends Walter by attacking the wagon (#674, #675).

Walter earlier agreed with me that #655 is scummy (#659), but doesn't vote for Italiano.
As Tayl0r pointed out, there is notable pressure on Italiano but he has no interest at all in the counterwagon on Walter (instead, he's primarily been attacking me).

---

What I get out of all this is that Italiano is focused quite heavily on defending Walter. Whenever there's a wagon on Walter, Italiano votes the counterwagon (except that with this most recent wagon, the counterwagon to Walter is Italiano himself, and his response is to complain that people aren't on the wagons that previously collapsed!). Basically every time anyone scumreads Walter, Italiano attacks the

read

(but Italiano has only twice actually called Walter town, placing him top of a townread list in #381, without explanation; and giving a gut townread in #687). The attacks tend to be with weak or no reasoning, too (e.g. #674 attacks a read as "sheeping Not_Mafia", and you can't really sheep someone who never explains).

I think the most plausible explanations for all this are:
a) Italiano and Walter are scum together.
b) Italiano is scum (with Walter town), and wants everyone to think that Walter is scum alongside him, in the hope that we end up voting out Walter and Italiano can end up being vindicated by the townflip.

In either case, though, Italiano ends up as being scum. Unless someone can find meta evidence otherwise, I don't think it makes sense for a hypothetically town Italiano to defend Walter

this

hard based only on a gut read.

this is a good post. i think there is a third possible explanation though, which is why i moved my vote away from walter. i dont think im going to vote for walter or italiano today, but will expect more from them on subsequent days.

[Tayl0r Swift]

oof yeah i really wanna lynch in cfj, shelly, enigma, or walter. like really really. they cant all be scum but this is some serious opportunism, id be surprised if there arent at least 2 scum in there maybe even all three if walter is scum.

don't like posts like this. caling out a third of the game and saying there is likely to be a scum in there...well duh. it feels like a post they can circle back later to to say "look, I always thought they were scum"

i think having a PoE of 3-4 people at this stage is pretty good actually. and im not saying i think theres one scum in this group. im saying i think this is where we find most if not all of the scum and flipping here will solve the game.

[Tayl0r Swift]

what is a bugspray situation?

[Tayl0r Swift]

this is a good post

why

it makes a lot of good connections. it isnt merely a high effort post that scum can fake, but its a post that has good analysis that scum would have a hard time and little motivation to make.

[Tayl0r Swift]

but ya don't question his narrative at all lets go big post = town yes

VOTE: italianovd

so this is a sarcastic vote?

[Tayl0r Swift]

my current solve is enigma shelly and nos.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Also I do think that Nosferatu's recent posts are much more pro town, so at this point while I'm still skeptical of Nosferatu I'm happiest with where my vote is currently at because of my earlier read on Banana.

my current solve is enigma shelly and nos.

Who is enigma?

RCEnigma?

[Tayl0r Swift]

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

no and no.

[Tayl0r Swift]

i no longer scumread cfj, at least not sufficiently to place a vote there. i will not be voting for cfj today.

[Tayl0r Swift]

yep thats what i did and do. just write a longish paragraph and ill assume it could only come from town. thats what i said at the time and im sticking by my original statement. you really sound like scum who is frustrated that townies are being successful in townhunting.

[Tayl0r Swift]

to be clear nos, my last post was sarcastic. also, is your vote on italiano sarcastic or serious?

[Tayl0r Swift]

my current solve is enigma shelly and nos.

Why do you think they all pile on the same wagon with minimal reasoning? Towards the beginning, no less?

yeah kinda interesting but they were my solve before all hopping on the same counterwagon. or maybe concurrently, but for other reasons.

[Tayl0r Swift]

ok nos is in my lynchpool

[Tayl0r Swift]

you realize we arent saying long post = town 100% right?

[Tayl0r Swift]

i could compromise on NM policy lynch but its pretty low-info. even if we hit scum there what info does it give us for day 2? like always lynch scum, but... NM is at pure random chance. those arent good odds. looker is being very lurky, i could go there. isnt that reavers slot? that would be an ok lynch right? i dont even remember anymore

[Tayl0r Swift]

lol thats some funny shade. im not stating my preferences, just something im willing to do if other people dont agree with my preferred options that ive been pushing all gameday. looker continues to be a scummy af slot

[Tayl0r Swift]

Hot take: Shelly & Taylor are partners.

yes, my preferred lynch candidate for today is my scumbuddy. no one else is interested in lynching here, im just really dedicated to distancing.

[Tayl0r Swift]

I will hammer whichever wagon hits E-1 first as soon as it hits E-1 no questions asked. Claims out if ya got em.

this post never comes from town

[Tayl0r Swift]

UNVOTE:

this is also really unhelpful. why unvote? does the slot being inactive make you think its town?

[Tayl0r Swift]

I will hammer whichever wagon hits E-1 first as soon as it hits E-1 no questions asked. Claims out if ya got em.

this post never comes from town

i guess i sorta retract this because we are so close to deadline, but i feel like its not a good look coming from a slot i already scumread.

[Tayl0r Swift]

UNVOTE:

this is also really unhelpful. why unvote? does the slot being inactive make you think its town?

I thought I should unvote if they were under threat of being replaced.

does the slot suddenly become town if it gets replaced? FoS gerain

[Tayl0r Swift]

so now that you think that isnt the case youll put your vote back?

[Tayl0r Swift]

yeah i mean the replacement will need time to read

[Tayl0r Swift]

ok italiano. its time for you and walter to explain why you were so confident in each other yesterday. i dont like your entrance to today, and while i covered for you yesterday i think you owe an explanation to everyone for what you crumbed yesterday.

[Tayl0r Swift]

ok italiano. its time for you and walter to explain why you were so confident in each other yesterday. i dont like your entrance to today, and while i covered for you yesterday i think you owe an explanation to everyone for what you crumbed yesterday.

And I appreciate that a lot. It's going to come up eventually, but I am the Friendly town neighbor and I share a neighborhood with Walter.

and did the mod confirm to you that walter is town?

[Tayl0r Swift]

ok but do you know each other's roles? because a scum-town neighborhood is definitely a thing

[Tayl0r Swift]

Panic from both the tayl0r and CFJ slots.

what sort of panic do you think im in? what exactly do you think is causing me to panic?

[Tayl0r Swift]

at this point it may be helpful for everyone to claim whether or not they are in a neighborhood. no need to claim neighbors, but it would be very helpful for me to understand my role. i can claim/explain everything or at least something based on what people say.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Do you have the ability to confirm yourself to people overnight?

Yes

If so, who did you confirm yourself to last night?

If that person wants to reveal that they can do that.

...and while i covered for you yesterday i think you owe an explanation to everyone for what you crumbed yesterday.

I missed this initially. Why does it sound like you are so concerned that I crumbed?

ok but do you know each other's roles? because a scum-town neighborhood is definitely a thing

From what I’ve read scum is more likely to be in 3+ person neighborhoods. That’s not to say it can’t happen in a 2 person neighborhood, but I don’t think it’s likely in this case.

And to answer your previous question, no Walter’s role has not been confirmed to me, but I wasn’t gonna feel comfortable him getting eliminated because I’ve had a strong feeling that Walter was/is town.

im concerned because i picked up on the crumb and made an assumption about your role and then hard defended you and walter (especially walter). following that, the pressure on walter disappeared. if theres a possibility that walter could be scum (if most/all of you are in neighborhoods it becomes increasingly likely that at least some of you are in neighborhoods with scum). if the pressure on walter disappeared for bad reasons, then we should look back at day 1 and reconsider whether walter is a good push today.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Panic from both the tayl0r and CFJ slots.

what sort of panic do you think im in? what exactly do you think is causing me to panic?

i have thoughts to share once frogster responds. if i forget to share thoughts, please remind me.

[Tayl0r Swift]

im concerned because i picked up on the crumb and made an assumption about your role and then hard defended you and walter (especially walter).

I’m confused. What were you expecting? It sounds like you feel you were duped or something.

following that, the pressure on walter disappeared. if theres a possibility that walter could be scum (if most/all of you are in neighborhoods it becomes increasingly likely that at least some of you are in neighborhoods with scum). if the pressure on walter disappeared for bad reasons, then we should look back at day 1 and reconsider whether walter is a good push today.

There are only two people in the neighborhood. The neighborizer can grow the neighborhood but that’s not a role that we can see.

well i was expecting you to be masons. or otherwise be sure of each other's role/alignment, since you said you thought walter is town. unless other people claim to be neighbors as well, its probably safe to assume that walter is town (a T-S neighborhood as the only neighborhood would provide a tremendous amount of disutility to town and would probably not be balanced in a normal game without some really strange other roles), but the point of the neighbor role rather than the mason role is that you can potentially be neighbors with scum. so based on the information you had at the time i dont know why you assumed walter was town. but i guess i dont have access to your pt so maybe theres something there.
as for your second point i realize that its only the two of you in that neighborhood, but there could be other neighborhoods, right?

[Tayl0r Swift]

uh to be clear (i did already say this) im not in a hood.

[Tayl0r Swift]

I don't believe that the wagon was scum driven. I believe it wasn't intended by scum.

The TFN neighborhood thing makes sense given the theory I floated yesterday about the setup being a 9-4, with more prs to come for town. I'm actually imagining this setup now as a series of two-person town neighborhoods vs four scum. Maybe one neighborhood is one town one scum.

In my current view of the game CFJ is angry because he believes shelly lost the game for scum, and given it's a traditional 10-3 setup, I believe there were no scum on the shelly wagon, and one on each of the others:

Gamma on the geraintm wagon, CFJ on Walter wagon and shelly on her own Italiano wagon.

Given a 9-4 I think there was a single scum on the shelly wagon, and my first guess is tayl0r. She doesn't seem very happy that a mafia got lynched D1 + a VT died, and she seems a little anxious for town cred.

frogster, why would you think that the setup is a series of two-person neighborhoods vs four scum if you arent in a neighborhood? this post also made me assume you are in a neighborhood.

[Tayl0r Swift]

I missed geraintm's claim:

Player List:

ItalianoVD claims hood
WaltertheDunce10 claims hood

RCEnigma (implicit no hood claim?)
Nosferatu

Looker claims no hood
taylor claims no hood
gamma claims no hood
geraintm claims no hood
Raya36 claims no hood
Frogsterking claims no hood
callforjudgement claims no hood

[Tayl0r Swift]

RCEnigma are you ascetic or do you have any other modifiers?

[Tayl0r Swift]

I don't understand this. you say the reason scum get lynched day one is due to error or luck, but you toss in a 3rd reason which is scum drove it?

I just find it very hard to believe that 7 townies eliminated Banana/shellyc when multiple people including myself townread or slightly townread the slot. But it makes sense now that I look back on my interactions with Banana. I also know that according to vca we will be able to tell if the wagon was scum driven later on in the game if we have a couple a mislynches in a row. I guess for now, I could place it on the backburner and look offwagon.

if you think scum was on the wagon, who is the scum?

[Tayl0r Swift]

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

to me the only possible scum on the wagon would be frogster and nosferatu. frogster may have put a distancing vote and then gotten trapped as the wagon gained momentum and nosferatu may have been a reluctant bus vote towards the end. off-wagon i'd look at looker, and then maybe raya and gamma. i was so convinced raya was town yesterday, but raya's posts today have made me seriously doubt that.

also italiano if you townread shelly why did you vote there?

[Tayl0r Swift]

also since i think everyone has posted and no one has claimed to receive the message, italiano if you targeted me last night i didnt get the message but im not counterclaiming, i think there may be another explanation.

[Tayl0r Swift]

RCEnigma cant really be scum - hes claiming a guilty on someone (at this point given people's PT claims). for RCE to be scum it would require him to be sacrificing himself in at best a 1-for-1 trade. thats a pretty bad play as scum, especially at this stage in the game where scum is already down a goon and town is only down a VT.

as for gerain, i was skeptical yesterday but i feel that gerains posts today have basically towntold. i think it would be worthwhile for everyone to re-read day 1 or at least shelly's posts to see what can be gleaned.

i guess im ready to VOTE: looker
this slot was my second scumread yesterday after shelly and has done nothing to change that.

im happy to claim at some point but i dont think theres any reason for me to full claim right now. ill say that my role is interesting given enigma's role.

[Tayl0r Swift]

i guess i can also add that my night action last night failed.

[Tayl0r Swift]

RCEnigma cant really be scum - hes claiming a guilty on someone (at this point given people's PT claims). for RCE to be scum it would require him to be sacrificing himself in at best a 1-for-1 trade. thats a pretty bad play as scum, especially at this stage in the game where scum is already down a goon and town is only down a VT.

as for gerain, i was skeptical yesterday but i feel that gerains posts today have basically towntold. i think it would be worthwhile for everyone to re-read day 1 or at least shelly's posts to see what can be gleaned.

i guess im ready to VOTE: looker
this slot was my second scumread yesterday after shelly and has done nothing to change that.

im happy to claim at some point but i dont think theres any reason for me to full claim right now. ill say that my role is interesting given enigma's role.

just popping in quickly befor ebed

i dont get this. you understand that RCenigma has a guilty on someone and we are all waiting for them to come back and tell us who so we can lynch them...and you go and vote looker? I cannot see us doing anything else today besides killing whomever enigma tells us to

the eventual lynch will be whomever enigma tells us almost certainly. but that doesnt mean we just stop scumhunting and wait for day 3... im gonna keep looking for scum and pressuring and voting, especially before enigma has claimed. scumpoints to you for not wanting to do any work.

[Tayl0r Swift]

ok and im back to having enigma as scum. you outed me as PR and there were better ways of getting everyone to claim whether they were in a PT. you also didnt answer the question about whether you are ascetic. VOTE: enigma

[Tayl0r Swift]

{italiano, frogster}
{ts, walter, rce}
{looker, gamma, geraint}
{cfg}
{raya}

where im at right now

VOTE: looker

youre voting for someone in the middle of your readlist?

[Tayl0r Swift]

my solve is definitely enigma and looker, but raya is the third in the PoE.

[Tayl0r Swift]

UNVOTE:
reading

Weird opening imo. This is pure gut but more than a bit scummy to me

does this look like a distancing play from inexperienced scum to anyone?

[Tayl0r Swift]

VOTE: RCEnigma

I wanna dance too!

interesting choice for rvs vote. nothing really by itself, but does anyone know if scum are more or less likely to RVS vote their buddy? its just interesting that this vote is on one of my top scumreads.

I'm with it VOTE: SJReaper

Could you point out what you view as scummy exactly from SJ?

this struck me. its either lazy scum struggling to find reasons to scumread anyone, or its an attempt to defend a buddy. i actually lean towards the former, which vindicates looker somewhat.

VOTE: Nosferatu

I'm not buying the sobriety excuse because I'm town and posting anyway right now. Nosferatu's post seems a little lurky and overconcerned. Like he thinks he can get away with it for an ML or two.

COJ seems overly concerned with Not_Mafia. I feel like he would be able to think more critically if he stopped mentioning Not_Mafia.

COJ and Not_Mafia nominated themselves for town leader and town "anti-town" and seem well suited for their roles respectively.

WaltertheDunce10 seems like he likes Twitter or LinkedIn or both.

Nosferatu seems like he's trying to lurk and be overreactive and get town read for it by being hipster. Like Nosferatu is saying to himself "I have two or three other scum buddies, it's D1, nothing really to do, let me just throw this out there."

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

Tbh this vote feels like a pretty bad excuse for a vote. And the reaction feels forced.

VOTE: Frogsterking

chainsaw defense of nos

[Tayl0r Swift]

Can anyone interpret Nosferatu's readslist and explain to me why he's voting me over Raya? (Or voting me at all)

{town}
{nulltown}
{null}
{nullscum}
{scum}

so youre saying youre voting a null slot over a scum slot?
explain

[Tayl0r Swift]

yep i wanna wagon RCE hard now.

HOP ABOARD! CHOO CHOO! (this wagon has a steam engine)

[Tayl0r Swift]

Alright. RCE it is

VOTE: RCE

why did you have to wait for my permission to hop on the wagon after stating that you thought it was a good wagon?

[Tayl0r Swift]

Can anyone interpret Nosferatu's readslist and explain to me why he's voting me over Raya? (Or voting me at all)

{town}
{nulltown}
{null}
{nullscum}
{scum}

so youre saying youre voting a null slot over a scum slot?
explain

{italiano, frogster}
{ts, walter, rce}
{looker, gamma, geraint}
{cfj}
{raya}

where im at right now

VOTE: looker

youre voting for someone in the middle of your readlist?

gotta sort them somehow i dont think any more pressure on cfj is doing anything

and raya? why arent you voting raya? explain your entire readlist please, with a brief summary of why everyone is where they are.

[Tayl0r Swift]

i also assumed frogster was a neighbor because frogster said he thought the setup involved many neighbor pairs.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Also noting that I don't like Looker putting doubt on the claims (especially Taylor)

What do you gain from this overdefense of Tayl0r? What do you lose from me being appropriately suspicious of roles that aren't confirmed?



VOTE: Looker

How is that an over defense of Taylor? I think the claim is genuine and I don't like the shade you're putting on it. Yes we should confirm the claims by the end of the day. But putting shade on them right now does no good.

it just feels like most of your posts today have been an attempt to pocket me

[Tayl0r Swift]

at this point im kinda more confident in raya being scum than enigma. raya is rolefishing and trying to pocket me. VOTE: raya. its interesting that theyre voting each other though. that could be an "uh oh we're caught better do something to make it look like we cant both be scum" play.

[Tayl0r Swift]

what are the odds that cfj vs frog is TvT here? pretty low i reckon. in any case scum is suddenly doing a good job of muddying the waters, and some townies are helping them.

[Tayl0r Swift]

what are the odds that cfj vs frog is TvT here? pretty low i reckon. in any case scum is suddenly doing a good job of muddying the waters, and some townies are helping them.

Actually I believe that there’s a pretty good chance it is TvT.

Can you elaborate on your second sentence?

the gamestate was in a really good spot 24 hours ago. we had good leads and the game felt under control. now it feels like chaos, which is partially scum driven im sure (either a wagon was going somewhere they didnt like or they were just being slowly cornered. but its also partially town driven. there are townies stirring shit up which is bad. now suddenly the game feels much less certain and sure - im not confident in where to apply pressure anymore. that suggests that wherever pressure was going 24 hours ago was the right direction

[Tayl0r Swift]

This is not a defense, but all those suspicious of Looker, were you suspicious of SJReaver?

i certainly was

[Tayl0r Swift]

Anyone else notice Looker is self-voting for no reason?

VOTE: Looker
I checked the context of that vote and that’s a whole crateful of yikes.

I’m not a fan of how cfj is interacting with frogster, feels like discrediting. It seems like cfj wants to smear frog’s reputation just on principle

Great misdirection.

yeah thats a really bad sequence from gamma who has been pretty lurky all game.

[Tayl0r Swift]

so gamma raya and frog are all shading/trying to get a wagon on cfj. it could be that the remaining scumteam is in that set. raya also has some positive associatives with enigma. frogster and gamma have the weakest associatives, but that could be scum trying to not be obvious potentially. individually, i still think enigma has the most scum equity. that said, there are a few subtle things that make me question whether enigma is scum. the fact that the enigma wagon was derailed with pressure on cfj makes me think raya and enigma could be the pair. or maybe frogster and enigma. raya has associatives with all three other people. so that kinda makes me want to hit raya because raya is the likeliest to be scum. after reading a couple raya towngames this also feels a bit different.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Quick check in before bed. Off to see SIL tomorrow so not sure how much I can post.

But Taylor, why are you complaining about the enigma wagoj stalling when you jumped off it?? I don't understand

it isnt so much the votes as what people were talking about in-thread.

[Tayl0r Swift]

who do you think is scum now raya? and why

[Tayl0r Swift]

my role is not powerful so im assuming theres other town power out there of sorts.

[Tayl0r Swift]

VOTE: CFJ again

why is this scummy rather than anti-town?

[Tayl0r Swift]

anti-town things are things done by either alignment that work counter to town's interests. scummy things are things done by scum, or at least thats the implication. so my question is, why do you think thats coming from scum rather than just town doing a no-no

[Tayl0r Swift]

hmm ill compromise there at deadline if we havent solved by then

[Tayl0r Swift]

yeah cfj i think you have a point that italiano's post was IIoA and he doesnt get towncred for it. but i also think italiano wasnt trying to win townpoints, and was just trying to help town. i had the same reaction of "hmm wheres the analysis, but i decided to wait and see what comes of italiano finishing isos of people off-wagon, and then if that wasnt satisfying i was planning some questions to ask to get analysis

[Tayl0r Swift]

if theres only one neighborhood i find it to be exceptionally unlikely that its town-scum. if you're saying theres scum in you and walter, then it almost has to be you cfj.

[Tayl0r Swift]

italiano because of what cfj said in 1185. please claim your target

[Tayl0r Swift]

It isn't a big deal and if his target doesn't out he can just out it before deadline or preferably in twilight.

And what if they still don't

I’ve already made a promise.

The person I targeted knows who they are and I would rather them confirm. Before the day is out the town will know who I targeted whether confirmed by me or them.

dont wait until twilight. what if twilight is short today and you arent around and then you die and your target was scum. just claim it. theres nothing gained by waiting. this is info and clearly people are hung up on it.

[Tayl0r Swift]

im ready to lunch raya and move on to day 3.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

This post looks like horse crap. Shoot Gamma up to FoS #2.

Raya it's your insistence on voting Walter that make me read you as scum or stubborn townie.

scum or stubborn townie isnt much of a read. like what are the odds that someone is either scum or town? pretty sure its 95% or so in this setup. why should we think scum rather than town? my PoE is now raya, cfj, and froggy

[Tayl0r Swift]

Okay so I want to give my thoughts on all the ISO’s I’ve done in connection with the banana/shelly slot. First:

UNVOTE: callforjudgment

Of course I will be referring to 1145 & 1170. I placed them in thread as reference for not only myself, but for the town as well. Not sure if anyone else has read them both and has come up with their own theories/opinions, but that was the purpose. I have a lot to get into, so this is the first post of many.

There were a lot of mentions to the banana/shelly slot; everyone in the playerlist mentioned the slot at least once. However when it came to actual interactions (speaking directly to the slot) I grouped them like so:

~ interactions for the sake of having interactions; no follow up
~ interactions to get a read; sort the slot, answer questions, push, etc.
~ no interactions at all

Now those who fit the first category are (Taylor, Looker, RCEnigma). Those who fit the second category are (Walter, myself, Raya, Nosferatu, geraintm, gamma, callforjudgment) Those in the last category is (Frogsterking)

I also did an iso on the banana/shelly slot and noticed something: In 82 Banana sort of gives callforjudgment a pass for his long post and doesn’t scumread him. In 691 shellyc said she saw a town mindset from call.

Why was this slot the only one that saw callforjudgment as possible town, while pretty much everyone else saw him as scummy or scumread him? Now I don’t know about Banana, but Shelly has precedence for bussing her partner and I don’t see her buddying up at all. Although the slot didn’t actually vote for call I think if call was scum I believe both Banana and shelly would have either distanced or bussed or at the very least placed him down as a scumread, should he flip (given he was getting heat for some time). This makes me think that callforjudgment is actually town.

I've also been getting that feeling from cfj in general too. Maybe a bit biased but why defend me and start a counter wagon when I'd be an easy miselim and not many questions would be asked. He even kinda set it up by saying he was worried about me trying to buddy him. Doesn't make much sense as scum.

i have an explanation! youre scum with cfj. explains all of everything

[Tayl0r Swift]

lets do an exercise: everyone post your gun to head scumteam of two people with one extra person who might be scum for me please. this could potentially provide very interesting data.

[Tayl0r Swift]

i think cfj will be an extremely high-info lunch. but i think raya is by far the most likely to be scum, so id still prefer to lunch there. we can dine on cfj tomorrow.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Ehh, not likely in my opinion.

what about at a later or earlier stage in the game? would i flip red on day 3?

[Tayl0r Swift]

@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?

I feel like from my perspective I usually come across quite townie when I actually try as town. I wish I could give this game that effort right now. As scum I tend to be pretty obvious, I come across as unnatural and it's easy to see through my plans. Of course scum always feel like their scummy so maybe I'm not as bad at scum as I think?

Without knowing how you actually play as both alignments it’s hard to know what you mean by “obvious” and “unnatural”. What differences are there or can be seen when you are “trying as town” as opposed to not trying?

Honestly I'm not too sure but when I was more active over the summer I noticed that I was getting correctly townread quite a bit and they were usually voiced to be strong townreads. I think a part of it is as town I'll be very transparent, ask players lots of questions, genuinely try to be engaged and post lots. I'm much less open as scum and I'm always worried about what I'm saying being scummy whereas as town I don't really care as much if I sound scummy. And also as scum I struggle to come up with my own pushes and sometimes and I think it shows.

I don't remember saying I was okay with sacrificing Shelly but there was a lot of suspicion on that slot so even if I read it as town I'd have been fine with the elimination. I did consistently read her as scummy-appearing town. It's still interesting how easy that elimination went through when there wasn't much of a push.

It may go against the grain, but I like this response. I was asking Raya this question as if she was scum sacrificing her scumbuddy and she answered it oblivious to the reasoning behind the question. If you are faking this response Raya, then kudos to you.

Oh I thought you meant sacrifice as in eliminate since I had a townread on her.

i read over a couple of your towngames, and i have to say that this feels different than those other games. youve been pretty absent here and havent committed to any pushes.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Also I feel like it's getting close to time for Raya to claim.

you arent even on the wagon and it isnt at L-1....

[Tayl0r Swift]

What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

maybe youll stop blatantly rolefishing or youll be the one at L-2?

[Tayl0r Swift]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

actually i was the first on the wagon and pushed for other people to join

[Tayl0r Swift]

i do not like frogsters recent posts.

[Tayl0r Swift]

could i ask people to give me the benefit of the doubt on raya here? im not an investigative with a guilty on raya or anything, but i do have a very strong gutread. this doesnt feel like town!raya after reading over a few games. this doesnt feel like town!raya based on raya's own description. a few people are trying to get counterwagons going. none of the people i scumread are voting raya.

[Tayl0r Swift]

VOTE: CFJ

why are you on another vanity wagon now?

[Tayl0r Swift]

frogster you say you have intent to hammer but you moved your vote to another vanity wagon and didnt actually state intent.

[Tayl0r Swift]

powerlunch enigma tomorrow.

[Tayl0r Swift]

honestly even if this flips scum we powerlunch enigma tomorrow

[Tayl0r Swift]

that kinda reads like scum self-hammering to end discussion prior to more bad associatives being given out for free.

[Tayl0r Swift]

LMFAO U DIDNT EVEN TRY TO MAKE AN EXCUSE

I don't need an excuse to elim my scumreads.

now the story is that no excuse is needed, this was a scumread, not "oops it was an accident". i dont buy the double-answer here.

[Tayl0r Swift]

VOTE: Raya

Don't @ me.

this post reads like a hammer. you dont say "dont @ me, L-2!!!"

[Tayl0r Swift]

gg, it was fun except for the whole being murdered in my sleep thing. thanks, GeorgeBailey

[Tayl0r Swift]

hmmm gg