Mini 159 - Medieval Mafia - Game over!

[vikingfan]

Yep, let's get going.

Random vote Seol

[vikingfan]

Shadow! Stop following me!

????? I don't understand what this means.

[vikingfan]

Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Usually if there's only one mafia group, there's usually either more of them or else there's the presence of a godfather. Both are common.

As for 2 docs, there's almost always a doc(except for strange scenarios such as Mountainous Mafia), and sometimes a backup doc(though the backup usually only acts after the doc dies). If I'm wrong on any of this, someone freel free to correct me.

But in any case, it's always wise to follow the #1 rule of Mafia: never try to outguess the mod. Every mod is different and every game varies.

[vikingfan]

Aren't you forgetting the list of those not voting? Every good mod includes it! 8)

[vikingfan]

Actually, the odds are a little lower than 1-in-12. That would be true if the odds were perfect but they're not. For one thing, it would be a very dumb mafia that would target themselves. Say there are four mafia, for instance. Then the mafia would go after one of the other eight, so the odds are one-in-eight. In 90% of mafia games, the doc cannot self-protect(take a look at some of the other games in Little Italy). So those odds are probably one in eleven(though it's very possible this is one of the 10% that isn't self-protect). Or am I missing something in my math(feel free to correct me if I'm wrong)? Math problems like this are fun to theorize about, actually.

[vikingfan]

I haven't seen that used much at all, Shadow, but it doesn't mean it's not possible. As I understand it, the SK is pretty much vulnerable like anyone else, pending doc/roleblocker of course.

As far as who's mafia, I agree that it seems likely that we have 1 group of 3-4 mafia. There's a chance that a doc and a roleblocker(I'm not following the 2 docs line of thought right now) were extremely lucky night 1, but I doubt it. More likely, we have one group. The trick is that this day has even less info than usual since we have no knowledge of anything (other than our roles of course). Hm, where to go from here?

I do agree that it seems almost 100% likely that the doc saved someone. It should also go without saying that the doc should not come out unless bandwagoned(and even then, it's still probably not a good idea to say who was protected until the endgame, assuming both are still around). As for whether the doc should protect the same person, if the doc self-protected and survived as a result, and if the doc can do so again, by all means go for it. I doubt that though, and trying to predict what the mafia will do by metagaming is usually a fruitless line of thought.

[vikingfan]

Just checked V/LA to see why Seol hasn't posted yet(he's the only one who hasn't), and got this.

Seol wanted me to tell you all that due to work, he's in Leeds. He'll be back tomorrow evening, but until then, he's unable to get on to the forums. (this was posted yesterday, BTW)

So

unvote Seol

because A)it was a random vote, and B)as of that note, he's not lurking.

So where do we go from here? The math is fun and all, but we need to move on somewhere.

[vikingfan]

2. either vote for seol or IS
3. we wrench the claim out of one of them and continue from there

Why one of these 2? I don't quite understand what these 2 have done to be on the list. IS is playing how IS always does, and Seol posted that he was legitimately absent. Now obviously, he could be lying, but it's not usually a good idea to lie about issues like V/LA. What am I missing here?

[vikingfan]

I'm with vikingfan on this one. Seol has had a good reason for not posting, and IS is IS.

I see that we need to put pressure on someone, but why exactly one of these two? something personal, chaotic_diablo, or just random? Give me an explanation and I might go with your plan.

Then, 2 posts later, with not much info from IS, Astronaut says:

[Astronaut wrote]
Vote: Internet Stranger
[/quote]

Any explanation why you changed your mind so quickly? Seems awfully quick to change one's mind like that.

[vikingfan]

@ Shadow Yeah. That's right. And there's something like the first person to claim doc is scum... I think...
I believe that we can be mathematically sure that we have 1 killing group (Mafia). Wether(sp?) or not that group is 3 or 4 people we do not know. Anyone who's intrested, check my math.

3-person Mafia

Mafia's Kill

Doc - 1/9
Not Doc -

8/9

Doc's Protect

Victim -

1/11

Not Victim - 10/11
You then need to multiply the bolded fractions together and you get 8/99 or 8%.

4-person Mafia

Mafia's Kill

Doc - 1/8
Not Doc -

7/8

Doc's Protect

Victim -

1/11

Not Victim - 10/11
You then need to multiply the bolded fractions together and you get 7/88 or 8%. (A little bit smaller than 3-person, but still rounding to 8%.)
If you want the ones for 2 killing groups, then ask me.

Posting is usually(but not always) down on weekends.

After relooking at things, I agree with Seol on the math. This is Iammars' first post with his mathematical calculations. The calculations do NOT equal out to 1 in 9. They're much higher than that. And in any case 1 in 9 is not even close to mathematical certainty.

Vote Iammars

I should note that Iammars said he'd be gone until Tuesday, but right now he's sitting at 4, 3 away from a lynch, so he should be fine until then.

[vikingfan]

Ah, OK, now I see what you're getting at, Seol. And I agree with you that it's scummy.

[vikingfan]

Friday, but he said he'd be away until Tuesday.

[vikingfan]

Don't make me post a deadline.

There's nothing we can do until Iammars returns, which should be tomorrow. Or would you prefer replacement or lynching an absentee player. You did say you wouldn't put the game on hold for him and right now he's where the majority of the votes are.

[vikingfan]

You may as well roleclaim-what you said implies, at least to me, that it's a power role, and as such, a pretty big bullseye is painted on you already so the town may as well have it all. Besides, that 'you won't like the roleclaim' phrase has been used before by scum and town alike so...

Unless someone can give a concrete reason why my logic is off...

[vikingfan]

He did post this morning and said he'd post again tonight. I for one want to hear from him on the roleclaim because we've been stuck on him for several days now and I think it's probably time to either lynch him or move on to a new target. We can't do either though until we hear from him...hmm...

[vikingfan]

Why? At least we're not risking losing a cop or doc. Besides, it could just as easily be scum hoping we'll buy the townie claim.

I'm sticking with my vote.

[vikingfan]

For once, I agree with IS. We could move on, but that might risk making a cop or doc claim. We've gotten by with no night kills night one. Besides, there's always the possibility that he's actually scum-what's easier as a scum than to claim townie?

[vikingfan]

What makes Iammars so not-scummy? The fact that we don't have much info. News flash: we NEVER have much info on day one. For the most part, day one lynches ARE random lynches. And why exactly is it so good that Iammars has claimed townie? If h's scum, it's the EASIEST role to claim in the world-nothing else to say.

And I'm not seeing what's so scummy about Soylent. I just checked and she has posted 6 times in the game, which isn't high, but it's not terrible either. I need to see more info as to why she's scummy.

Ultimately, most of us want to lynch Iammars, and in general, the ones that want to lynch Iammars are the more experienced people(i.e. IS, STD, and so on). Not that that counts for much, but it's not likely that ALL of us are scum, if any of us are, which leads to the thinking that this is the correct play. I REALLY don't want to create another role claim, because that'll just help the mafia, especially if we have to make the doc or cop roleclaim. Then our chances of winning go way down and I don't want to take that chance, at least not on day one.

[vikingfan]

Thank you!

[vikingfan]

Woohoo!

Anyway, congrats to Seol, my cool mafia buddy!

I made the decision on who to kill the first two nights. Regrettably, we picked on Dodgy, but in retrospect, the plan to kill the Machine the second night worked quite well.

BTW, Dodgy, why did you go after me the second night? I don't think I was setting off any scum vibes-or was I?