Mini Game 20- Game Over Mafia wins

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The Accountant, cop, was killed by the mafia.

Well that buggers. Anyone feel like they know how many mafia there probably are?

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Woo! I managed to get voted and unvoted between posts. I think I agree with Querciton, though I'm not sure I fully understand the argument. Are you saying that claiming to be a generic townie should convince other generic townies, because only the generic townies know that some generic townies exist? (i.e. the mafia and special roles could conceivably believe that noone is role-less?).

Also, the question still remains...why Jadesmar? In any case, I'm game.

Vote: Jadesmar

, until he says something witty and/or enlightening.

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Well, I suppose I can be convinced to change my vote in order to speed things up a bit, but it seems to me like we're voting for Lain for bad reasons, whereas I'm at least voting for jadesmar for

no reason.

I guess I feel slightly suspicious of Lystrodom's

*Realizes Beaudion makes more sense then him.*

In my mind, more like *Realizes Lystrodom should jump on largest bandwagon to ensure quick kill and ensure mafia victory whether or not Beaudoin is making sense*. It doesn't seem to me like people

actually

conceding points around here is very common, unless it's done to win over a voting block.

Cam

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Just as a point of curiosity, why is no logic better than bad logic? Don't take this as a FOS or anything, it's genuine curiosity.

I personally think that some logic, bad or not, is at least on the same level as no logic at all. Otherwise it just becomes a guessing game.

Well, if we can define good logic to be logic that leads us to toward identifying a mafia person, and bad logic to be the complement of good logic, then applying bad logic will increase our chances of hitting a townsperson over a random killing. I agree that the first day is often just a guessing game, unles either a) we are convinced by the mafia to follow bad logic or b) the mafia make a slip of the toungue and we nail 'em. But, hopefully, a guessing game is good for us. And if we don't believe this, then we should perhaps reconsider voting someone off the first day. It's not always the correct play (and this is easily proven) to lynch someone the first day, despite those who insist that it is.

Basically, what I'm trying to say is that I'm usually more suspicious of people who make faulty claims than those like MedicatedLain who react in a way different than the community standard here on mafiascum.net. This is, of course, not to say anything about the innocence or guilt of Lain. I've already confessed to having no real reason for voting Jadesmar other than trying to get something out of him, but again, I'm willing to switch if any more powerful evidence comes to bear.

Cam

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Just as a point of curiosity, why is no logic better than bad logic? Don't take this as a FOS or anything, it's genuine curiosity.

I personally think that some logic, bad or not, is at least on the same level as no logic at all. Otherwise it just becomes a guessing game.

Well, if we can define good logic to be logic that leads us to toward identifying a mafia person, and bad logic to be the complement of good logic, then applying bad logic will increase our chances of hitting a townsperson over a random killing. I agree that the first day is often just a guessing game, unles either a) we are convinced by the mafia to follow bad logic or b) the mafia make a slip of the toungue and we nail 'em. But, hopefully, a guessing game is good for us. And if we don't believe this, then we should perhaps reconsider voting someone off the first day. It's not always the correct play (and this is easily proven) to lynch someone the first day, despite those who insist that it is.

Basically, what I'm trying to say is that I'm usually more suspicious of people who make faulty claims than those like MedicatedLain who react in a way different than the community standard here on mafiascum.net. This is, of course, not to say anything about the innocence or guilt of Lain. I've already confessed to having no real reason for voting Jadesmar other than trying to get something out of him, but again, I'm willing to switch if any more powerful evidence comes to bear.

Cam

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I guess my point is that I tend to disregard anyone's claims of being a townsperson, and not use that claim either for or against them. I didn't find Lain's claim particularly suspicious...he was just voted on for no reason, and he was trying to convince people (in an albeit completely non-convincing way) that he wasn't a mafia. As both mafia and townspeople would probably engage in this plan, I don't think we gain any information from that claim. To me, voting for Lain is just as random as voting for Jadesmar. I agree, of course, that his claim is potentially not true (if that's what you meant by "faulty").

I'd be much more willing to vote for him if someone just said they had a gut feeling that he was mafia. Gut feelings are pretty strong, so you can have my vote if people claim one. I feel that probing into the technicalities of how he proclaimed his innocence, however, is kind of a waste of time.

I don't suspect of you colluding with Jadesmar, at least not based on your argument. Consider voting for him. Hm, looking at the vote count, I'm much less suspicious of Lain seeing that he hasn't voted for Jadesmar. Wouldn't a mafia jump at the chance to lynch someone else instead of him? It wouldn't even be very suspicious. (I realize this is also true of townspeople, but I feel it's moreso for mafia). Jadesmar's simply random among the people I suspect the most.

Cam
p.s. Sorry for the double post last time...stupid AOL browser.

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Perhaps you should switch sooner rather than later, so that we can have some hope of being able to gather up enough votes to lynch

someone

today? You and lystrodom (the only other players apparently playing for the time being) switching to jadesmar will give us the 6 needed to kill, whereas me switching to Lain still only gives us 5. As for Lystrodom, I grant that I have been defending Lain vigorously, but this was more of an attack on the method used to incriminate Lain rather than a defense of him or anything he's said. But, as you say, keep a close eye on me, and let's maybe kill Lain tomorrow or something if Jadesmar turns out good.

Cam

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So it seems quite odd to me that jadesmar was killed overnight. Jadesmar was almost lynched the first day, with a couple of people expressing actual opinion that he was mafia (as opposed to my mostly random vote for him). Wouldn't a smart mafia have thought "Hey, jadesmar's the most likely to get lynched tomorrow, so let's murder someone else tonight?" Is it possible that the mafia have abilities that let them know jadesmar was on to them? Maybe even from the first night? Consequently, I'm a little suspicious of the people voting to kill jadesmar the virst day. Specifically, I'm currently most suspicious of Quercitron...he seemed to be implying he had actual knowledge concerning jadesmar (though perhaps I'm reading too much into his posts). From quercitron:

Point. Unvote: jadesmar, vote: ML, though I still have my eye on jadesmar, and not just because he's silent.

He was also out of the gate nominating awfully quickly for someone who claims to have no abilities to gain information at the night. In fact, I'm so suspicious, that until an explanation comes forth, I'll

Vote: Quercitron

Cam

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Well, the reason I was mostly suspicious was that the part of my jadesmar vote that was non-random was the fact that you might have some actual information (which you were apparently hinting at). So I thought you might have been lying about being a townsperson, and actually having a role, trying to trick the mafia into not killing you. And I'm certainly not implying townies shouldn't make better-than-random votes. You were implying that you had knowledge, and doing so in a subtle kind of way, as if you couldn't say your knowledge out loud for fear of being murdered by the mafia. Why wouldn't you just tell everyone the information in your post yesterday while we were voting? I felt pretty confident that Lain was innocent, but had no compelling (or even non-compelling) evidence against anyone else. When jadesmar was revealed as a goodie, though, I think my vote made sense: If you DID have information, then voting for jadesmar was mafia-esque, since he was a goodie, and if you DIDN'T have information, then it was suspicious that you were hinting strongly that you did. If you still don't think my vote made sense, let me know, and I'll elaborate. However, I'm somewhat convinced by your explanation in the last post, and was one of the few people who expressed support for your original claim of townsperson, so chill out with the OMGUS.

Unvote: Querc

. Incidentally, OMGUS is really stupid.

So, that being said, I think I might be convinced that the mafia have investigative abilities. It seems to me very silly to kill jadesmar last night...picking anyone else would have been smarter as a couple of us had expressed suspicion towards jadesmar. The "moving the game along" theory doesn't really do it for me...wouldn't the mafia want to eliminate the talkers, so they can ride the silent to victory? (Unless, of course, they're on the verge of getting themselves lynched). There might be another explanation for the murder of jadesmar, but I can't think of it...nor can I think of how this information (that the mafia have investigative powers) would help us.

Anyone have any ideas?

Cam

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Well, as enthralled by the rampaging discussion as I am, I guess I'll have to buckle down, stop the chattering, and just vote, if for no other reason than to offset the only other vote out there (against yours truly). Of course, this is no better than a hunch (one I actually pointed out earlier), but I'm going to

Vote: Lystrodom

. Partly the Lain vote, partly the bandwagoning without reasoning (see earlier posts), but mostly by elimination (I feel like I have a good idea about a couple of other of the players). Let's get some other votes out there!

Cam

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Well, I'm certainly not claiming an overwhelming body of proof against you, Lystrodom, if that's what you mean. I found your jumping to the Lain bandwagon somewhat suspicious at the time, and when deciding who to cast a vote for yesterday, I read through the past posts and this suspicion was re-kindled. In short, I don't have anybody better to vote for, and few people seem to be playing this game. I wonder if that's a symptom of the mafia being quiet? The townspeople have nothing to say, because they have no information, so the mafia just shut up and wait for some loudmouth to get themself killed. Given this, maybe it's a good idea for the cop to come out...knowing two innocents (assuming the cop didn't bad luck on to two already-dead people) would be pretty darn helpful. And knowing one mafia would be sweet.

I know, I know, "Get him, he told the cop to come out," but COME ON! We have to do so SOMETHING here, other than get picked off one by one. Knowing a couple of citizens could turn this game around, even if we do lose the cop (though there's probably (?) a doctor, so we might even be safe there).

Incidentally, where does "Lystrodom" (the name) come from? POST, people, POST!

Cam

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Oh yeah, I meant to respond to:

Too loud, get killed by mafia. Too quite, get lynched. Ya gotta be juuust in between.

I (somewhat) agree with this, which is why I find it especially odd that jadesmar, of all people, was killed overnight. What does this mean to anyone else? I've put forth one theory: maybe the mafia have night abilities that let them know that jadesmar was on to them, or at least had a role that could hurt them. Possibly, as querc points out, maybe they just wanted to move the game along. If this latter is the case, go mafia go! I don't find either of these particularly believable, though...anyone else?

Cam

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These are all good points. Personally, I guess I'm now leaning towards the combination "less-experienced mafia" and "mafia with investigative roles." Though I've somewhat lost that gut feeling on Lystrodom, he's keeping my vote.

Cam

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TOO HELPFUL? TOO HELPFUL?

I do apologize to the town for this blatant, clearly not-well-thought-out attempt at helpfulness. I'll try to be less helpful from now on. On a less sarcastic note, I've become suspicious of quercitron again. First of all, it's not as big of a risk as he says it is for a mafia coming out and claiming townie first day. Even in the case where there are no generic townies, it can be several days before that information is divulged. In a mini-game, a mafia managing to survive several days is a huge advantage. Second, though I haven't played a lot of mafia games here at mafiascum, it seems to me like the occurence of the no-townies game is rare enough that this risk is minimal anyways. Third, and probably most important, if we can agree that it is possible for the mafia to have investigated night 1, then a mafia quercitron could have KNOWN there were townies before making his claim! I'm not sure I'm going to revote him, but at least I can feel better at the end if he unmasks as mafia and laughs at us for believing him. Is there anything you can say to defend your claim, quercitron?

To answer Nyarlathotep, the scenario I'm envisioning involves the mafia investigating on the night before the first day, investing jadesmar, finding out his ability, pushing to get him lynched the first day and, that faiiling, lynching him the next night. Thus, I'm VERY suspicious of those voting for jadesmar the first day. And incidentally, my new attack on quercitron is not simple pandering to Nyar's "one of mathcam/quercitron is sum' idea, though, of course, you have no reason to believe this.

Cuban Smoker, for what it's worth, I tend to think MatthewV is innocent. Especially for newbies, playing mafia is a new and exciting task (which he wasn't in his game he died in) so probably would have devoted more attention to the game. Not that he's a particularly useful townie, what with his lack of posting, but even a non-participating townie is worth having alive. Though his OMGUS vote is really stupid, as are all OMGUS votes, so I'm a little suspicious of him for that.

Sugar, I did bring up the possibility of no-lynch the first day, but this is because I wanted to remember that it was, in fact, an option. I was still of the kill kill kill mindset.

I still think a cop coming out is not a bad idea, as long as the information they have isn't just about dead people. There HAS to be a doctor...there are multiple mafia, probably each with investigative roles...the townies must have some kind of defense. And knowing some townies for sure would make life so much easier. It's up to the cop, anyway....I'm just trying to help him/her out with advice. Other people should propose an argument of why the cop shouldn't come out if they don't feel that's the right plan, instead of simply lynching the guy who said otherwise. (In your defense, Sugar, I guess you do say that it's not suspicious by itself...hmm...I agree I look somewhat suspicious, but the jadesmar voters should be more so, I feel).

Sorry for the long post and the lack of it for the past few days. And as a serious reply to the helpfulness charge, I could see attacking me if, for example, a plan I suggested turned out to be horribly crippling to the townspeople. Then I would expect to be lynched, whether or not I was a townie. But often and loudly coming up with plans to slightly improve the odds of the townspeople does not seem like a clever thing for a mafia to be doing, when they could just sit there and make OMGUS votes or stay silent.

Cam

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The part about a cop coming out is stupid, because if they had something useful to share they would do it.

Well, now that doesn't make any sense at all, does it? You're saying that I shouldn't give advice to a cop becuase he/she already knows it? What if the cop isn't sure of whether or not to come out? It's up to the rest of the population to come up with helpful suggestions. It's not like they can come out and say "What should I do?", because if it turns out it's not right to come out, then they just screwed up. Thus, we have to assume they're asking for help, and provide it.

Cuban Smoker...I didn't realize Jeep's last minigame didn't have any regular townies. This is a good point. Even still, the only way he gets caught is if both a) there's no townies and b) we can all figure out there's no townies. I'm just saying that regular townies shouldn't necessarily believe him, simply because I don't think the risk is that high.

It's not that I'm particularly suspicious of him, hence not re-switching my vote to him...just that I don't think we should discount the possibility if it's to come up later.

Cam

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Oh, and I'm becoming more and more suspicious of nyarlatothep...I thought I was voting for him for a while. I get the two names mixed up.

Unvote: Lystrodom Vote: Nyarlatothep

.

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So I guess wer're really waiting for the Beaudouin/Werebear/Lystrodom faction to weigh in on the voting. Let's hope we don't have two of three of them evil. I think that's probably not the case, but who knows? Thursday 10am IS approaching rather quickly. I could also be convinced to switch to sugar. I feel there has to be some serious evil in the Nyar, sugar, MatthewV group. Nyar and Sugar were the only two to both vote for Jadesmar and me, and for some reason, though I don't think he always makes sense, I don't have too strong a suspicious toward MatthewV. People who haven't voted....come on, you're killing us here.

Cam

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Hm, I wonder if anything can be read into the fact that Nyar claimed to not know what a laundry attendant does? It seems like if he investigated jadesmar and got a role that was unclear, then the mod would have explained it to him. Of course, it's just as easy to feign ignorance whether or not you are ignorant, so there's not too much stock to put on that idea. Nevertheless, it's enough of a tie-breaker between Sugar and Nyar for me, so

Unvote: Nyar

Vote: Sugar

Also, there's probably a greater chance that Cuban will post again before 10Am than querc, just by number of posts alone. (just explaining my reasoning...not that this has any relevance).

Cam

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The noose is getting a little tight here, people.

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Hey, that was cool...you posted in between me clicking post reply and me typing a one-sentence post and posting it, Sugar. If we lynch Nyar because of your vote and he's mafia, then you're all but cleared in my mind. I note that you didn't actually switch your vote though. I encourage you to do so.

Cam

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Well, that was ridiculous. It happened again.

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Okay, it seems like it's certainly in my best interest, whether or not I'm mafia, to now

Unvote: Sugar

and

Vote: Nyarlatothep

A mutually benficial exchange of votes, Sugar. Go us. Sorry for the like quintuple post everyone.

Cam

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If someone comes in to vote at the last minute, I will be very suspiscious of them.

That role has now been amusingly filled by Beaudouin.

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I didn't waver in my vote??? I just about voted for every last one of you in one half-hour segment last night? Okay, that's not true, but I certainly wavered. In addition, to respons to Cuban Smoker's "quick to jump" accusation some time ago, I think my vote for Nyar was perfectly reasonable. Whether or not I was mafia, I would have switched my vote to vote to ensure that someone would besides myself would die. I think there is no information to be gained my last-minute vote shift.

I think it's high time we started looking at Cuban Smoker for some sweet, sweet evil. I don't know why, but all of a sudden, I'm very suspicious. Lystrodom was going to be my next vote, but something about the immediate "I'm not dead, the mafia probably tried to kill me" strikes me as funny. More likely, in my opinion, was that CS was shocked that whoever he tried to kill didn't end up dying so felt obligated to post the first explanatory message.

In another note, do we believe there's only one more mafia? Two? It still seems to me that the cop should come forward with his/her information. The cop definitely has information about someone alive, since there was no kill last night. Probably there is at least one more piece of information available as well. Knowing 2 citizens right off the bat now would be very excellent. Having a cop is pointless if we don't use him/her. If they get murdered over night before having talked (which is getting more and more likely with fewer and fewer people) then we might as welll not have had a cop in the first place.

One last thing to think about, and one that I don't have the answers to: Who would a doctor tried to have protected? And who would each of us have tried to kill if we were mafia. If we can find someone we're pretty sure the doctor would have protected, and find someone who likely would have tried to kill

that

person, then I think that's a pretty strong case.

Cam

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Oh wow, I didn't see we already had 3 mafia dead. So almost certainly just one more, right? If this is true, then I'm now positive a cop should come out, and will argue this point with anyone who cares to do so.

Cam

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Ah yes, Idiot be me am. Oops. But perhaps it's my subtle ploy to get you to believe I do ride the special bus, as it were, and then KABAM! You're all dead at night.

Well, this "new" information certainly changes my feel for the game, and I take back everything bad I ever said about anyone and/or their mothers.

Say, the cop comes out and says quercitron and cuban smoker are innocent. I go whoop de doo. And then one of us dies the next night. Odds of cop dying soon are small.

I agree that there's a greater chance that you would die that night, but then again, we (almost) clearly have a doctor, at least helping us get a 50/50 shot. Plus, even if you did die, knowing two citizens for one turn and one citizen on the next is a big help in eliminating suspicion and honing in on the real baddies.

I tend to think, now that I have temporarily regained my sanity, that there probably are three mafia total (2 left...not 0) with a doctor left and probably no more investigative roles.

I guess I'll go back to my original thinking yesterday, and

vote: mikegoo

p.s. MatthewV, not voting for mikegoo because he's new doesn't seem like the best plan. We still have all of Lystrodom's old posts to go off of, so really, until mikegoo posts, he's still Lystrodom.

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Personally, I've lost almost all suspicion of Sugar. There was a crucial switch to Nyar instead of me which is somewhat convincing to me even though it may not be as much to everyone else.

I still don't understand your stance, MatthewV, on mikegoo. If we had solid information on Lystrodom, and then he left, we wouldn't just ignore that information. If Lystrodom messed up, and gave away that he was mafia, we should still lnych him, even if it's a little less fun for mikegoo. Now I'm not saying that we have such evidence against Lystrodom, but it serves to illustrate the point that we shouldn't forget

anything

that Lystrodom did, just because he's now gone. mikegoo is playing the same role as Lystrodom. My wanting to kill mikegoo has nothing to do with mikegoo...just a feeling for Lystrodom I had before the switch.

CS, I think your argument for Werebear before was one surrounding his replacement status.

As for my own innocence, which I suppose shold be addressed, I

was

one of the first on the Nyar lynching squad, not only participating in it, but actively recruiting for it. I'm not sure where MatthewV is getting my overemphasizing of my random vote for jadesmar. If there was any emphasis at all, it was because I was suggesting that we should look in the jadesmar lynch mob for evil, and I was in there. For me not to be suggesting to go after me, I had to at least mention that I was in there randomly and not because of knowledge. Last, I'm not sure where if anywhere my actions have been implying that I had an investigative role. I think it's actually fairly clear that I don't. If I were a townsperson with an investigative role, I would have come out already (probably). If I were a mafia with an investigative role, it would have been stupid of me to put so much emphasis on bringing that point out into the public.

Oh yeah, and I agree with CS that I'm an idiot and not a mafia (no offense taken, CS). What strategic advantage would I have gained, were I mafia, by posting that three mafia were dead? Would I be hoping that noone ever checked the list of dead people again?

So in conclusion, I'm most suspicious of the mikegoo/MatthewV pairing right now, but as always, this is subject to rapid and unpredictable change.

Cam

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Well, if my voting seems spurious to the untrained eye, it's probably because my voting was, well, somewhat spurious. I endeavor to use logic when facts to base it on are available, but other than that, I go with hunches. This is why I generally think the cop coming out and revealing a couple of innocent people is good strategy. If nothing else, there's more logic in the game and less of me putting forth my often incorrect hunches.

I think mikegoo's last post pretty much eliminated all suspicions I had of the lystrodom/mikegoo character (at least all that over the baseline suspicion of everyone), but then again, he did unvote me, and that's difficult to psychologically differentiate. Being unvoted always makes me happy.

That Beaudouin is here and not posting kind of freaks me out...there seems to be little reason to intentionally be silent in this game. The obvious though (clearly) possibly incorrect conclusion is that he's hoping that his silence will increase our chances of whacking an obnoxiously loud good guy like myself. So before further ado,

Unvote: mikegoo, Vote: beaudouin

I guess I'm still a little suspicious of MatthewV, but I think that's fairly reasonable given his last couple of posts. I guess I should address his points (

again

):

As for the "Consequently, I'm a little suspicious of the people voting to kill jadesmar the first day. " quote, I even brought this quote up in my last post, so it's not like you're unveiling a new piece of evidence. I even brought up this quote to explain why I emphasized my random vote on jadesmar, which you have brought up yet again.

For what it's worth, I agree that you should not plan who you kill the next day. That was more an offhand remark to try to get people to switch to jadesmar because, at the time, I thought that quercitron was a cop trying to hint to us that jadesmar was evil. This was clearly wrong in hindsight. I will often say things like "Kill him today, kill me tomorrow" if there's a bandwagon on me...I don't actually want you to kill me tomorrow, I want you to get the information from killing someone else before making your decision.

That's all for now,

Cam

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Tru' 'Dat. Fire at will, Werebear.

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Well, first and foremost, a hearty congratulations to us...though three of our comrades have been felled in the dark of night, our lynchings have been dead-on accurate. Now to the matters at hand:

First, shouldn't the doctor also have some information? There was a night without a kill...either the doctor knows an innocent (the person they protected), or the mafia chose not to kill for a night. That would seem odd to me. So there's probably a doctor, and he/she probably knows an innocent. Whether or not they should come forth with one innocent name, I'm not sure.

As for suspicions, boy do I have many. I'm somewhat suspicious of Werebear simply because there's been little suspicion cast on him all game. Though I can appreciate CS's metagame analysis argument for why werebear might not be mafia, I'm certainly not confident enough in that argument to proclaim werebear a surefire townie.

I was less suspicious of MatthewV when he was attacking me full force than I am now...it seemed like a non-mafia type thing to do to really focus in one person and go all out. But now there's been a retraction and I"m not sure how to take that.

CubanSmoker seems most innocent to me, with Sugar falling close behind.

Old voting notes:
- Beaudouin cast the deciding vote to kill Nyar, both mafia
- MatthewV was the only one to not vote for Nyar
- MatthewV

did

, however, vote for Beaudouin, though it was a landslide by that point anyway.
- MatthewV did bring up the "lurking man theory" of Beaudouin, which certainly helped get him lynched.
- Though I believe there's a defense in there somewhere, Werebear

was

very relucatant to vote Beaudouin for a while, and one was of the (very) few who never did.

In conclusion, for me it's a tossup currently between MatthewV and Werebear, but I'll go

Vote: Werebear

.

CS, if you want to reiterate your argument for Werebear, I'm all ears. Maybe I didn't understand it in full the first time, but it seems like you're putting an awful lot of weight on it.

Cam

Actually,

Unvote: Werebear, Vote: MatthewV

. Indecisivity rules again!

[mathcam]

I'd put money on there being one more mafia...but I guess four is quite possible. But I'm somewhat baffled as to who...Werebear is somewhat convincing. It seems like an awfully intricate role just to have pulled out of thin air. Do we think he's the only doctor?

Maybe back to mikegoo? I'm confused.

Cam

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I guess I too kind of suspect the MatthewV/mikegoo mafia pair, but that really feels like a lot of mafia. We've lynched mafia 2 out of 3 times, at pretty decent odds, so if there were 2 mafia left, I'd be ready to pronounce this game ridiculously stacked for the mafia (though I guess our investigative role did die pretty early, which kind of screwed us).

I've put some thought into this, and I think it's right for me to come out with some information at this time: I am the doctor. To mirror Werebear:

Night 1 - I protected Cuban Smoker
Night 2 - I protected Quercitron (unknowingly redundant)
Night 3 - I protected Sugar (night of no kill)
Night 4 - I protected Cuban Smoker

If you want to debate the merits of me coming out with this information, then we can do so later. First, we should analyze the information I'm presenting. Since the night of the nokill, I've been assuming Sugar was a 100% townie, since no one died on the night I protected him. I (apparently foolishly) neglected the possibility of their being another doctor or doctor-like role. In hindsight, if were are to believe Werebear, I tend to think that it was actually me targeted by the Mafia rather than Sugar. Sugar had been looking suspicious the day before, so why lynch Sugar? Also, if the mafia DO have investigative roles, and found out I was a doctor, I would make for a prime target. So I now remove Sugar from my list of top innocents. This isn't, to say, that there's a vote or even an FOS coming his way from me. Sugar unvoted me to cast the deciding vote against that mafia scum Nyarlatothep on page 5, which is somewhat convincing.

I've just reread through every post, and I'm pretty sure my vote is going to MatthewV or mikegoo, I just can't figure which. Cuban, can you like compile a list of all the reasons why we're not voting for you? All I have this vague thought that you're innocent because of your list...you probably wouldn't make a list just to finger your mafia allies, but there were probably non-mafia up in the list also, and you could have just been hoping. Is there anything more concrete?

Last, if there are any more townie roles, I would encourage them to come forward with any information now. Putting all this information together may give us enough to make a clean sweep. And what with two doctors acting tonight, there's a good chance you wouldn't be targeted.

Super ast, we need a proposal for how Werebear and I will act tonight. I would propose the following: Werebear, with his one shot left, will protect me and only me, if anyone. I will protect someone at semi-random from the group of not-me. I think Werebear should roll, for example, a 10-sided dice and protect me on 1 through 6 and save his one protection on a 7 through 10. This makes it slightly less advantageous for the mafia to go after me, and gives Werebear a chance of keeping his power for another night. Suggestions?

Cam

[mathcam]

Yeah, I wondered this myself when Werebear came out. I convinced myself that his role was intricate enough that he probably wouldn't have just made it up. Unfortunately, this argument doesn't help defend my claim of doctor. The one thought I had to reconcile this was that the mafia did have investigative (or other?) roles, thus giving more of a balance. I don't know anything for sure, though.

Cam

[mathcam]

Well said, Werebear. The only way I could be mafia is if somehow I knew both that you protected me on that night (even though I didn't even know there was another doctor) and that you were going to come out later and say that you protected me, and then choose not to kill on that day so that I would appear innocent later. To respond to mikegoo, I can see in hindsight how that would appear a little suspicious, but in order for me not to give away that I'm a good role, I have to ask the questions as if I were a townie. My goal as doctor is to give off the impression that I'm a regular townie so that I'm not targeted overnight. If I was the one targeted on the Sugar/me night, I think I was probably targeted because many people (possibly mafia included) thought that I was a cop. I came out the next day and tried to dispel that opinion. In your quoted claim, I was just doing the same thing for doctorness.

I think I have a plan, and I'll present it below:

[mathcam]

Here it is, Plan'-O-Cam: (warning, it's somewhat long and tedious, but very true and almost guaranteed optimal)

We don't lynch anyone today. The greatness of this plan assumes there is only one mafia left. I think several of us agree that if this weren't true, then we would have been pretty screwed from the start. If there were no protective roles, then it would almost be trivially true that not killing is the right play. Proof: If there's two townies and a mafia left, it's clear that you have to lynch to have any chance of winning. If there's three townies and a mafia left, it's almost as clear (though less intuitive) that lynching is VERY WRONG. From a tonwsperson's perspective, there's a mere 1-in-3 chance of lynching the mafia. If you lynch the wrong person, the mafia kills a townie that night, and it's down to 1 on 1 the next day. Mafia wins. If you don't lynch, however, then the mafia will kill over night and you're down to 2 on 1 the next day, where from a townie's perspective, you have a (mugh greater) 1-in-2 chance of lynching the mafia and winning. The argument extends easily to show that if there's one mafia and an even number of townies, then "lynch" is right, whereas if there's one mafia and an odd number of townies, "no lynch" is right. Thus, 5-1, which we have now, is no lynch.

Now, the above was all under the assumption that there are no protective roles. I feel, perhaps incorrectly, that the addition of protective roles increases our chances. Werebear will, with maybe a 75% chance (or something pretty high), protect me tonight, thus making it inadvisable for the mafia to target me. I will protect someone at random from the not-me set, werebear included. Then, if someone dies overnight, then we at least have better odds of lynching the mafia the next day, as above. If no one dies overnight, then either the mafia didn't kill or the person I protected becomes a known citizen. It seems very unlikely to me that not killing is the right play for the mafia, with the hope that I choose to protect them so they can claim innocence. That gives them like a 1-in-5 chance of winning, whereas attempting to kill someone other than me gives them like a 1-2.5 shot or thereabouts.

So the plan in short: We don't lnych, I protect at random, Werebear protects me with 75%-ish probability. If someone dies, our odds of lynching the mafia are improved. If no one dies, then we have another confirmed citizen. I'm open to suggestions for improvements, but I really feel that something along these lines is right.

It occurs to me that one flaw in the plan is that if Werebear is mafia, he could just kill me. But then, we'd be casting strong suspicion on Werebear. Maybe Werebear should automatically protect me. 100%. Hmmm...

I apologize for the boringness of the post. I think it's actually pretty cool stuff. This game rules.

Cam

[mathcam]

p.s. It's great being a known innocent. Usually when I propose these plans, I get lynched because someone doesn't believe it or doesn't feel like reading it. But now you

have

to read it! Ha!

[mathcam]

Yeah, I guess the limited charge doctor does kind of mess things up a bit. Our home variations usually involve something like if there are three decisions to no kill in a row (i.e. two by the town and 1 by the mafia or 2 by the mafia and one by the town) then the game is a draw (or sometimes we play that the town is declared the victors...staying alive and eliminating crime is prety celebratory I would think), just to avoid this type of situation.

I agree that the scenario you present is somewhat unfortunate, though I think it's still probably in the best interest of the mafia to kill. The point is that now that I'm out, this was going to happen anyway. We just have to make the best of it. I came out of hiding as a doctor to share information that should help narrow our decision as to who to lynch, and we only lose the 1-in-5 shot that I protect the right person (or they might have chosen to kill me anyway, to which there is no defense). In this worst-case scenario, everyone is alive but me after two days, so we've still improved our odds of lynching a mafia. My role is no longer sacred. The hex doctor can only help. So werebear will have a decision to make.

The reason I think the mafia will make a kill is because...well, frankly, why not? There's almost certainly another one of us dead, and all that's lost is a slightly higher chance that they get lynched, whether or not they murder actually gets through.

Vote: No lynch

Cam

[mathcam]

--deleted by jeep, there was no content in this message, but it's the principle

[mathcam]

Gah! And I protected Sugar 3 times too. I feel so betrayed. Sorry townies for picking so poorly on who to protect. Well played, scum. Especially unvoting me for nyar at the last second.

I thought that maybe triple protecting someone killed me somehow. Ironic, seeing as how that was jeep's other choice for the Hex Doc's role description.

Cam

[mathcam]

[quoteJeep: thanks for a great game. [/quote]

Tru dat.

Cam

[mathcam]

I don't understand...how can you NOT approve of the last no lynch? It's so much better to choose from 2 people than from 3 people.

Cam