Mini 1400(!): Bubble Tape Mafia - It's Over!
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qwints Mafia Scum
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qwints Mafia Scum
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In post 444, Kthxbye wrote:I was starting to believe Dave up to his p438. Asking for other cop claims. This looks like more of a ploy to get a true cop claim to make scum buddies n1 real nice and easy. No intelligent cop would counter claim d1 since even after your claim, you're hardly believed.
In post 448, Kthxbye wrote:It's the throwing things out there (flailing) that makes me believe you're scum. Die die die!
Are you saying I shouldn't have voted Dave?-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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mastin, why vote Jake over the person AP's actually voting (kthxbye?)
Killing a replacement pre-post would normally make me think about either a history between that player and one of the scum or the player's general reputation, but neither makes sense here. If I had to guess, the most likely goal is to try to frame someone but too much WIFOM there to conclude anything at this point.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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Why are we dropping this daytalk scum slip?
In post 499, zipperflesh wrote:i can picture their qt convo...
ap: lets be a thorn in Thors side
jake : dave looks an easy target lets tag team
devour: guys i just cant keep up... prb have to be replaced
ap: Dave wagon is a go go
jake: ill keep off the lynch since he claimed cop , but I'll spread some doubt about. his claim
qwints: hey guys... what should. i do
ap and jake: hammer the claimed cop! town will never buy that as a scum. move-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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qwints Mafia Scum
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qwints Mafia Scum
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qwints Mafia Scum
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qwints Mafia Scum
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qwints Mafia Scum
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qwints Mafia Scum
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qwints Mafia Scum
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AP - so you think SK-Jake entered into a 1 v 1 on day 2? That only makes sense if he's confident you're scum. In that world, Jake is BP and saw that only his kill went through, then read your attack on him as scum SK-hunting. Jake thinks he can flip you, "confirming" his claim. That is actually a pretty plausible scenario.
Jake, why are you so confident a kill didn't go through? Is it just because AP said he was "surprised you weren't killed."
In post 728, Jake from State Farm wrote:
A VT would not be surprised a town read was alive and automatically assume they were scum.
This is wrong.-
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In post 776, AngryPidgeon wrote:Jesus qwints, are you reading my posts?
I'm having trouble keeping up. Glad to know I've got the key point behind Jake=SK but let's not lynch him figured out.-
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Going back over AP's reaction to the claim, considering AP's various motivations. [Aside: the fact that AP initiated the 1 v 1 idea removes an argument against Jake as an SK]. I'm approaching this from the perspective that if AP is scum or SK he shot and missed at Jake last night. That doesn't have to be the case, but it seems to be Jake's chief belief. A big problem here is that the possibility of a protective role targeting Jake seems reasonable given that he was prominently not on the PR lynch, and thus it would be quite risky to assume Jake was BP.
Spoiler: motivation analysis
Conclusion: AP-town makes the most sense to me. AP-scum is plausible and AP-SK would have to be insane.-
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In post 803, mastin2 wrote:AP and qwints: I'm voting with you since I think that kthx is the right lynch for today, but if another one of the current lynches were viable, would you switch?
Yes.-
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In post 809, AngryPidgeon wrote:It not like Ive been saying that he is a BP SK and that his kill is the only one that processed last night HENCE HE KNOWS HE WAS TARGETED.
You didn't say that in the first post. Posts 675-677 make a lot of sense as a genuine town thought process, which I think is most likely. It's less likely that you are feigning surprise at the idea in a post 4 minutes after you list the reason that basically has to imply this. That's why you're most likely town. It's conceivable, but less likely, that you feigned that sequence as scum.
p-edit:
I don't know. I tend to believe that mastin legitimately reads you as town since there is a noticeable difference in your play between here and thirsty souls mafia. Of course, that could easily come from town or scum.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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qwints Mafia Scum
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@AP, because I've been in a lot of games with your recently so I'm up to the fucking minute on your meta which has been made easier by the fact that you've got a (slightly out of date) wiki. The only game he could be referring to when he's talking about your meta is Thirsty Souls.
I'm still really confused by how both AP and Jake are both so convinced there's a SK in a game with one kill when both are asserting that they've got no knowledge a kill was actually blocked.
I'm also convinced that we'll most likely find scum in the people who've been ignoring this discussion. See especially Maverick given people seeing him checking the thread. People should also not how kthxbye cheered for an AP lynch but hasn't tried to defend himself against the push. He seems quite content to let the Jake-AP flurry take the pressure off of him.
P-edit, First, I did confront kthxbye with his posts on the Dave wagon. Second, I've had you as prob-town most of the game though the 1 v 1 thing was really stupid. Third, I came to a conclusion - you're prob town and definitely not a SK. Fourth, I did miss that post, which came in one of this game's flurry of posts, but I did go check the meta and pulled the vote once I did. Remember that you, yourself, were wrong about what zipper had actually posted.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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In post 440, kushm4sta wrote:
I unbelieve. I'm willing to revote but I don't know the count ATM and I don't want to hammer yet.
In post 467, kushm4sta wrote:also i agree with Jakes policy i don't want to lynch him today.
In post 541, kushm4sta wrote: I definitely agreed with Jake's policy and I did not want him to be hammered.
I remember thinking when I unvoted "damn i can't find the unvote tag (because i was doing quick reply) ah it doesn't matter"
fuck this website.
In post 890, kushm4sta wrote:
Careful AP is at L-1, and I don't really want him to be hammered yet. I may change my mind after reread.
Kush, is everyday going to involve you voting someone you don't want lynched?-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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Funniest part of MM's Iso:
In post 26, MaverickMaestro wrote:That's not my style, I'd rather be active and involved in a game as opposed to being in the background.
Spoiler: MM Posting Review
His posts make me think scum trying to stay out of the way. His vote's consistently been on Kush, a player who's received some suspicion from several other players. All of his attacks seem to be quiet seconds of other player's attacks, finding another thing to support their ideas without making a splash. His attacking Dave without voting him or even saying why he wouldn't vote him seems a bit of a red flag.
tl;dr Scum staying out of the way of town fights
Spoiler: MM's relative activity level
Basically worthless sample size, but his activity here seems closer to his scum game than his town games.
Spoiler: Meta Summary
To the extent it means anything, it points towards town.
Conclusion, I like this as a lynch- especially given that people have seen him repeatedly reading the forum without posting.
UNVOTE: kthxbye
VOTE: MaverickMaestro-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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@mastin, Jake's thought process wasn't as dynamic so I didn't think a PBPA was necessary.
Either Jake is BP [SK,scum or commuter] who saw AP's comment (Jake not dying is weird, more later) as a scum slip/set up for a fake vig claim and decided to go all in on the read. I find it very hard to believe that Jake actually believes AP is town.
or
Jake is lying, either as a bizarre good-faith gambit from town, as a troll, or as scum who's trying to stir up enough shit to guarantee his buddies can stay hidden for the rest of the game and watch town fight town to death.-
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In post 919, AngryPidgeon wrote:MM lurks. I don't think its alignment indicative.
I don't see how you can draw that conclusion from his completed games. At most, you could say that, based on the Tintin Game, he fell behind in the only long game he's really played.
I agree with Mastin and AP that the kush vote seems designed to try and force an AP lynch as the prospects as momentum beginning to fall behind. It's worth noting that it's the same L-2 vote he put on Dave. Combine that with how both his posts on Dave and his posts on AP seem to be pushing for a lynch while expressing reluctance and I agree with the scum read. I also haven't changed my read on Kthxbye.
I'll gladly support Kthxbye, kush's or MM's lynch.
@p-edit:
Mastin, read the whole post. That's a stupid misrep.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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In that post I looked at three factors in order of importance. The major one, his posting in this game, pointed towards scum. The two minor ones, activity level and meta, pointed in different directions, but both were based on way too small a sample size to be useful. You're not reading the post if you're saying it's me saying how town he was.
In post 917, qwints wrote:
MM Posting Review: tl;dr Scum staying out of the way of town fights
MM's relative activity level: Basically worthless sample size, but his activity here seems closer to his scum game than his town games.
Meta Summary: To the extent it means anything, it points towards town.
Conclusion, I like this as a lynch- especially given that people have seen him repeatedly reading the forum without posting.
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qwints Mafia Scum
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qwints
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qwints Mafia Scum
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In post 491, Kthxbye wrote:
Could you give an explanation? It's not like people aren't going to ask for it, so why just post a vote and nothing else?
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As for the qwints hammer post 1 from him....
On one hand, AP makes some good points in defense of a town-qwints. None of it is provable or course, but it would be a very (almost too) bold an act for a scum-qwint's to hammer a claimed PR first post into his part of this game. So bold, it'd be hard to believe that it would be coming from a scum...making people think he must be bold town and just simply really really thought dave was lying....
On the other side...
In post 479, d3x wrote:Stifling D1 conversation, not waiting to hear anything from multiple player slots, Hammering before a consensus has been reached on the claim. These things are all AntiTown. I'm not saying they're scummy just yet, but they're definitely not in the Town's best interest.
^this.
I however disagree with the anti-town not meaning scummy. By definition, anti-town actions are scummy imo.
I'm a firm believer in if it smells like scum, looks like scum, and acts like scum, it must be scum. NOT if it's too scummy to be scum it must be town. Broken down into simple math we have:
town-qwints scum-qwints
too bold a move for scum stopped day 1 very early
stopped day 1 with 2 replacements still being needed
hammered claimed (and now confirmed) PR role
town-qwints in this case is highly unlikely with only a WIFOM bullet to support it.
VOTE: qwints
qwints turns scum, AP probable scum as well.
You posted this before I did anything on day 2. Like AP said, why not shoot me?-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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Mastin, I feel like you've had every player in this game as both town and scum without a lot of explanation [except for AP of course.] For example, you reversed course on Thor and dx3 pretty abruptly and without any real explanation:
In post 595, mastin2 wrote:Leaving just three names for scum: d3x, kthnxbye, and Thor.
Yeah. By POE alone, they'd be scum, but they've also got scumtastic interactions. (d3x also chainsaw defended Thor via trying to discredit AP in the early pages as well.)
Not only are their interactions horribad, but their play is (as far as I can tell) some of the worst in the game. For instance, Safety (who kthnxbye replaced) has some of the worst posts I've seen in my 100-game career.
In post 758, mastin2 wrote:4. Thor665
^Ambivalent. Not a day two lynch for that alone.
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10. d3x
^Like Thor, ambivalent. Unlike Thor, I actually have a lean on him:
Town.
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qwints Mafia Scum
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@mastin - Sure, but you didn't reverse course. You went from a scum read to sudden ambivalence on Thor without giving an explanation. Here's the last post you mention Thor and d3x before declaring your ambivalence:
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In post 1175, AngryPidgeon wrote:
Qwints, what was your train of thought behind looking for Kthx crumbs? Why does it really matter / what did you expect to find?
My instinct was scum would be more likely to RB a vig if they thought he was shooting scum.-
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In post 1181, AngryPidgeon wrote:Wouldnt they RB him anyways just to get him lynched for lying?
Maybe, but a bad vig kill gives town one less lynch before scum win (Lylo becomes Mylo).
Kthx, why'd you hammer yesterday when you thought my hammer was too fast Day 1?-
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In post 1188, Jake from State Farm wrote:there is 50% chance you are the gf so you aren't confirmed town.
Huh? Mind showing your work?-
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In post 1259, Kthxbye wrote:Ready yourselves for qwints quick hammer to end the day early.
Dave wasn't V/LA when I hammered him. I was also much more confident in my scum read of him due to his behavior when scum-slipping and his talk of counterclaims. Instead I'll sheep the guy who's virtually certain to be town.
VOTE: Cybertronix-
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In post 1269, AngryPidgeon wrote:
Qwints, why did you say this? As in, why do you think there is an SK at all? You didnt want to lynch either me or Jake IIRC and were confused at my policy of not lynching Jake when I thought he was one.
I said this because vig is a common fake claim for sk's.-
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In post 1275, AngryPidgeon wrote:
1. He just seems generally disinterested in the game. By that I mean 90% of his posts have been involving me (despite not suspecting me?). He seems more or less blase about who is getting wagoned (come on qwints, I KNOW you aren't a PMysterious alt)
It's a fair cop. I haven't felt like I've had something to really latch on to for most of this game. The epic AP-Jake flaming-spam didn't help, but mostly I just feel lost when it comes to my reads. Right now, I'm mostly just trying to stay active until something jumps out at me.
In post 1275, AngryPidgeon wrote:
2. His reason for writing me off as a townread was lazy and scummy. Posturing
Ongoing stuff I can't talk aboutI focused on a detail that confirmed my overall read of you.
In post 1275, AngryPidgeon wrote:
3. His Dave hammer was pretty scummy actually (changed my mind). I think town-qwints would at LEAST have waited to catch up or (if he were already caught up) made a post about who he thinks is also scum before hammering.
I was really confident in that read, and I thought further discussion was likely to harm town. We had plenty of information about Dave's impending lynch at that point. Was there anything he could have said to change your mind that he was the day 1 lynch?
In post 1275, AngryPidgeon wrote:
4. Accuses Zipper of daytalk scumslip but doesnt notice anything else wrong with the post in question (that it looks like damage control, Zippers qwints read came from nowhere, and that Zipper has had no original thought all game) He later drops that after I point out there is no reason town-Zipper wouldnt assume daytalk.
Fair enough on the first point. You skipped a step on the second - you, incorrectly, made a claim about zipper's meta. When I checked his meta, I saw the game he'd been in with daytalk.
AngryPidgeon wrote:But we have no reason to think there is an SK in the game at all. What has your read on Kthx been throughout the game?
None, except the excruciatingly long argument between you and Jake that basically assumed a SK was in the game. In that context, the remark made sense given that SK's often claim vig. My read's been that kthx is prob-scum, but his posting after the claim has thrown me.-
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The question for kthx, if he's actually a town vig, is "Am I more likely to shoot correctly tonight than town is to lynch correctly?" The answer is likely yes since kthx's random probability is a coinflip whereas (assuming 3 scum) only 1 of 3 townies needs to be fooled for town to win.That question probably doesn't matter, since there's no reason to believe a truthful kthx will be able to shoot tonight when he couldn't shoot last night.-
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@AP, I said Iwasconfident about my read on Dave. I've lost the game for town because there's no way I avoid being mislynched tomorrow if zipper flips town and I know that. That doesn't mean I'm not going to try regardless of how he flips, but I'm aware that it's a hell of a risky move. Yes, I am hammering explicitly to avoid being lynched today - too many of my town reads have me, wrongly as scum and the D1 hammer gives scum every excuse to push for my mislynch.
@kthx, I think you should shoot tonight without revealing your target beforehand. Scum are likely to believe you'll incorrectly shoot me and thus may let the shot go through.
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