Mini 1400(!): Bubble Tape Mafia - It's Over!


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Post Post #464 (isolation #0) » Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:10 am

Post by qwints »

/confirm.

Dave is scum.

VOTE: Dave168
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Post Post #525 (isolation #1) » Sun Dec 09, 2012 11:53 am

Post by qwints »

VOTE: zipperflesh

Daytalk scumslip.

I hammered b/c of dave's reaction to being called on a "scumslip" and his suggestions on counterclaiming.
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Post Post #536 (isolation #2) » Sun Dec 09, 2012 3:38 pm

Post by qwints »

In post 444, Kthxbye wrote:I was starting to believe Dave up to his p438. Asking for other cop claims. This looks like more of a ploy to get a true cop claim to make scum buddies n1 real nice and easy. No intelligent cop would counter claim d1 since even after your claim, you're hardly believed.


In post 448, Kthxbye wrote:It's the throwing things out there (flailing) that makes me believe you're scum. Die die die!


Are you saying I shouldn't have voted Dave?
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Post Post #566 (isolation #3) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 5:44 am

Post by qwints »

mastin, why vote Jake over the person AP's actually voting (kthxbye?)

Killing a replacement pre-post would normally make me think about either a history between that player and one of the scum or the player's general reputation, but neither makes sense here. If I had to guess, the most likely goal is to try to frame someone but too much WIFOM there to conclude anything at this point.
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Post Post #620 (isolation #4) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 12:33 pm

Post by qwints »

Why are we dropping this daytalk scum slip?

In post 499, zipperflesh wrote:i can picture their qt convo...

ap: lets be a thorn in Thors side
jake : dave looks an easy target lets tag team
devour: guys i just cant keep up... prb have to be replaced
ap: Dave wagon is a go go
jake: ill keep off the lynch since he claimed cop , but I'll spread some doubt about. his claim
qwints: hey guys... what should. i do
ap and jake: hammer the claimed cop! town will never buy that as a scum. move
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Post Post #642 (isolation #5) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 12:58 pm

Post by qwints »

Hmm, AP why do you think that zipper's never been scum?

Also, the 1 v 1 is stupid and I won't participate.
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Post Post #650 (isolation #6) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:05 pm

Post by qwints »

AP's willingness to use meta here makes him town.

A quick check of zipper's history reveals his last completed game had him as scum with daytalk.

kushm4sta's fake unvote/fence sitting on a dave lynch is worse than kthxbye's play.

UNVOTE: zipperlfesh
VOTE: kushm4sta
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Post Post #655 (isolation #7) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:13 pm

Post by qwints »

What's to comment on? I'm with mastin: the 1 v 1 thing is stupid and I don't want to see you or Jake lynched.
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Post Post #661 (isolation #8) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:18 pm

Post by qwints »

@d3x, how would you reevaluate your initial read of the kush wagon given that you know think kush is scummy?

@ AP, b/c [ongoing]
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Post Post #665 (isolation #9) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:42 pm

Post by qwints »

Jake, are you dismissing the possibility that town-AP thought you were so obv-town that scum would have to shoot you? You're convinced he's sk or scum who shot and missed and then tried to get you lynched?
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Post Post #708 (isolation #10) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 5:50 pm

Post by qwints »

@AP, I missed that post. I found the game he was referring to after you prompted me to search his meta. I presume you also missed the post since you talked about him never having been scum. I've already withdrawn my vote based on his reference to day talk.
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Post Post #732 (isolation #11) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:24 am

Post by qwints »

AP, if you're convinced Jake is lying about his role, why aren't you voting him?
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Post Post #748 (isolation #12) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:43 am

Post by qwints »

*baa*

UNVOTE:
VOTE: kthnxbye

I still want to hear why AP, who I think is town, isn't voting Jake if he thinks Jake is lying about his role.
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Post Post #772 (isolation #13) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:13 am

Post by qwints »

AP - so you think SK-Jake entered into a 1 v 1 on day 2? That only makes sense if he's confident you're scum. In that world, Jake is BP and saw that only his kill went through, then read your attack on him as scum SK-hunting. Jake thinks he can flip you, "confirming" his claim. That is actually a pretty plausible scenario.

Jake, why are you so confident a kill didn't go through? Is it just because AP said he was "surprised you weren't killed."

In post 728, Jake from State Farm wrote:
A VT would not be surprised a town read was alive and automatically assume they were scum.



This is wrong.
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Post Post #781 (isolation #14) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:20 am

Post by qwints »

In post 776, AngryPidgeon wrote:Jesus qwints, are you reading my posts?


I'm having trouble keeping up. Glad to know I've got the key point behind Jake=SK but let's not lynch him figured out.
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Post Post #785 (isolation #15) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:11 am

Post by qwints »

Jake, 3 questions for you:

1) How the hell is getting modkilled playing to your win condition?
2) How is confirming your status know more valuable than you staying alive?
3) What if you're wrong about your read on AP?
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Post Post #805 (isolation #16) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:41 am

Post by qwints »

Going back over AP's reaction to the claim, considering AP's various motivations. [Aside: the fact that AP initiated the 1 v 1 idea removes an argument against Jake as an SK]. I'm approaching this from the perspective that if AP is scum or SK he shot and missed at Jake last night. That doesn't have to be the case, but it seems to be Jake's chief belief. A big problem here is that the possibility of a protective role targeting Jake seems reasonable given that he was prominently not on the PR lynch, and thus it would be quite risky to assume Jake was BP.

Spoiler: motivation analysis
In post 627, AngryPidgeon wrote:Ok, lets do this. 1v1 with Jake right now.


AP-scum: Goes after Jake b/c he guesses Jake is bulletproof sk and he wants town cred for flipping him. Somewhat risky since Jake could have not died for another reason, but hopefully he's able to at least trade himself for a town PR.

AP-town: doesn't buy claim (unusual role + unusual aggression from Jake) so Jake is scum. Thinks this will lynch scum.

AP-SK: Somehow believes the most likely situation is that Jake is a BP goon (based on later posts) and wants to establish conf-town status. Only really believable if he's BP too.

In post 675, AngryPidgeon wrote:
Jake, explain to me how you have not inherently claimed to use a shot for your case on me to make any sense at all. Your case on me REQUIRES you to have used a shot, confirm/
deny
lie?

BTW, if Jake is scum he almost HAS to be a 1xBP or something. It kind of makes sense. And if we have a 1 or 2 shot vig, they should claim there actions immediately.


AP-scum: Trying to get more information to flesh out the little info scum has - Was Jake's protection the reason the kill didn't go through? Can I get any other PR's to out themselves?

AP-town: Believes Jake's reasoning doesn't make sense and that Jake has extra information that town shouldn't have. Trying to get Jake to slip.

AP-SK: Similar to scum with the added bonus that he's not listing an SK because he doesn't want to validate that possibility.

Note: I don't understand the claim that Jake must be BP here from any perspective unless AP believes Jake knew he was targeted.

In post 677, AngryPidgeon wrote:Holy crap what if Jake is a BP immune SK. That would be fucking M Night Shymalan all over this thread and could kind of make sense.


AP-scum: Feigning surprise to maintain town cred after a SK flip.

AP-town: Genuine surprise, pleased with his new consistent theory

AP-SK: Feigning surprise to disassociate himself from SKs

In post 678, AngryPidgeon wrote:It kind of makes sense. Think about it. Serial Killer Jake shoots DoubleJD. The scum team shoots Jake. Jake is BP. Jake suspects he was shot for this reason and gets ready to claim commuter (a fairly unlikely, role all things considered). A commuter claim explains why he isn't killed throughout the game (its like a PGO claim in a sense) because an x-shot commuter can out-WIFOM the scumteam. And if Jake is an SK and suspects he was shot last night (for obvious reasons), then he absolutely would have reason to believe that I slipped about it or am reaction testing him about it to see if he will flail. And he furthermore can garner town-cred from a mafia-flip from me. ESPECIALLY if he accuses me of being an SK for the added cred of appearing to know less than he does.

tl;dr: Jake's an SK. Lynch that shit. Qwints/Kthx are still Mafia. 3rd mafia is ??? Or maybe its just them. Who knows.

Alternatively Jake is a BP goon or something and actually believe I am an SK. Either way lynch that shit.


AP-scum: Confident because he really understands what's happening.

AP-town: Believes he has figured out Jake's mistaken motivations.

AP-SK: Invents scenario minimizing the discussion of AP being SK. Has to be virtually certain Jake is scum at this point.

In post 687, AngryPidgeon wrote: Jake was ready for the incoming maf push on him and mistook my statement for that mafpush and is claiming an unkillable PR to justify his being a BP SK and is voting someone he is SURE slipped about having a 2nd shot.


AP-scum: Lining up a mislynch of Kthxbye once Jake flips SK.

AP-town: Thinks he's found a scum.

AP-SK: ??

In post 704, AngryPidgeon wrote:Jake has to play nightless now anyways. We can lynch him last.


AP-scum: Rethinking his read on Jake and trying to bail out.

AP-town: Willing to leave SK alive since Jake can't NK w/o outing himself.

AP-SK: ??


Conclusion: AP-town makes the most sense to me. AP-scum is plausible and AP-SK would have to be insane.
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Post Post #806 (isolation #17) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:46 am

Post by qwints »

In post 803, mastin2 wrote:AP and qwints: I'm voting with you since I think that kthx is the right lynch for today, but if another one of the current lynches were viable, would you switch?


Yes.
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Post Post #819 (isolation #18) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:12 pm

Post by qwints »

In post 809, AngryPidgeon wrote:It not like Ive been saying that he is a BP SK and that his kill is the only one that processed last night HENCE HE KNOWS HE WAS TARGETED.


You didn't say that in the first post. Posts 675-677 make a lot of sense as a genuine town thought process, which I think is most likely. It's less likely that you are feigning surprise at the idea in a post 4 minutes after you list the reason that basically has to imply this. That's why you're most likely town. It's conceivable, but less likely, that you feigned that sequence as scum.

p-edit:

I don't know. I tend to believe that mastin legitimately reads you as town since there is a noticeable difference in your play between here and thirsty souls mafia. Of course, that could easily come from town or scum.
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Post Post #828 (isolation #19) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:31 pm

Post by qwints »

AP, that's your only completed scum game thus its the only one Mastin could be commenting on. I remember it well because I was scum with you and you said it was your first scum role in the QT, and you then got speed lynched Day 2 after being really scummy.
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Post Post #845 (isolation #20) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:53 pm

Post by qwints »

@AP, because I've been in a lot of games with your recently so I'm up to the fucking minute on your meta which has been made easier by the fact that you've got a (slightly out of date) wiki. The only game he could be referring to when he's talking about your meta is Thirsty Souls.

I'm still really confused by how both AP and Jake are both so convinced there's a SK in a game with one kill when both are asserting that they've got no knowledge a kill was actually blocked.

I'm also convinced that we'll most likely find scum in the people who've been ignoring this discussion. See especially Maverick given people seeing him checking the thread. People should also not how kthxbye cheered for an AP lynch but hasn't tried to defend himself against the push. He seems quite content to let the Jake-AP flurry take the pressure off of him.

P-edit, First, I did confront kthxbye with his posts on the Dave wagon. Second, I've had you as prob-town most of the game though the 1 v 1 thing was really stupid. Third, I came to a conclusion - you're prob town and definitely not a SK. Fourth, I did miss that post, which came in one of this game's flurry of posts, but I did go check the meta and pulled the vote once I did. Remember that you, yourself, were wrong about what zipper had actually posted.
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Post Post #847 (isolation #21) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:56 pm

Post by qwints »

But why would he even set himself up for the vig claim in the first place given how unlikely "I vigged Jake but he didn't die, so he's scum" would sound anyway? He called you town like a dozen times day 1.
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Post Post #893 (isolation #22) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:30 pm

Post by qwints »

In post 440, kushm4sta wrote:
I unbelieve. I'm willing to revote but I don't know the count ATM and I don't want to hammer yet.


In post 467, kushm4sta wrote:also i agree with Jakes policy i don't want to lynch him today.

In post 541, kushm4sta wrote: I definitely agreed with Jake's policy and I did not want him to be hammered.
I remember thinking when I unvoted "damn i can't find the unvote tag (because i was doing quick reply) ah it doesn't matter"
fuck this website.


In post 890, kushm4sta wrote:
Careful AP is at L-1, and I don't really want him to be hammered yet. I may change my mind after reread.


Kush, is everyday going to involve you voting someone you don't want lynched?
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Post Post #899 (isolation #23) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:05 pm

Post by qwints »

Kush, so by your standard, AP is null, leaning town?
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Post Post #917 (isolation #24) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 5:46 am

Post by qwints »

Funniest part of MM's Iso:
In post 26, MaverickMaestro wrote:That's not my style, I'd rather be active and involved in a game as opposed to being in the background.


Spoiler: MM Posting Review
Day 1

Starts off with fluff post then attacks RVS when called on it. [4,7]
Defensive Posts [15,20]
Defensive/places 2nd vote on Kush for new but related reason [26]
Defensive [31, 42]
"Me too attack" on Zipper, but doesn't vote [57]
[kush] is the lynch [67]
"Sheeping bad" [152]
Delaying posts [181, 226]
Asks Dave to elaborate on AP suspicion [232]
Attacks Dave for new but related reason, doesn't vote [307]
Defensive [315]
Calls AP, Kush and Dave as scum team [443]

Day 2

One post several posts after quite a lot has happened.

In post 578, MaverickMaestro wrote:VOTE: kushm4sta

Still scum.

Summary: Fairly low content, tending towards active lurking at the end of day 1 and pure lurking on day 2. Very high consistency of reads, tending towards tunneling - Kush and Dave early and often with fleeting mentions of Zipper and AP. Has constantly had his vote on Kush since his 4th post.


His posts make me think scum trying to stay out of the way. His vote's consistently been on Kush, a player who's received some suspicion from several other players. All of his attacks seem to be quiet seconds of other player's attacks, finding another thing to support their ideas without making a splash. His attacking Dave without voting him or even saying why he wouldn't vote him seems a bit of a red flag.

tl;dr Scum staying out of the way of town fights


Spoiler: MM's relative activity level
18 total posts - least of any active player

MM requested replacement in Tintin mafia as town due to the pace on Day 2 around 60 pages.

Scum game: Micro 29: Low activity level before self-hammering day 1

Town Games: Newbie 1280: 3rd highest post count as Vanilla
Newbie 1299 Middle of the pack as VT


Basically worthless sample size, but his activity here seems closer to his scum game than his town games.


Spoiler: Meta Summary
Meta's pretty worthless given the small sample size and different contexts (Newbie as town/micro as scum), but, since it was discussed, all 4 games start with purely fluff posts without votes. He also argued against RVS in the 2 newbie town games without doing so in the micro scum game. His early game looks and feels more like his town games than his scum game, but the sample size is too tiny to place much confidence in this.


To the extent it means anything, it points towards town.

Conclusion, I like this as a lynch- especially given that people have seen him repeatedly reading the forum without posting.

UNVOTE: kthxbye
VOTE: MaverickMaestro
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Post Post #923 (isolation #25) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:05 am

Post by qwints »

@mastin, Jake's thought process wasn't as dynamic so I didn't think a PBPA was necessary.

Either Jake is BP [SK,scum or commuter] who saw AP's comment (Jake not dying is weird, more later) as a scum slip/set up for a fake vig claim and decided to go all in on the read. I find it very hard to believe that Jake actually believes AP is town.

or

Jake is lying, either as a bizarre good-faith gambit from town, as a troll, or as scum who's trying to stir up enough shit to guarantee his buddies can stay hidden for the rest of the game and watch town fight town to death.
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Post Post #926 (isolation #26) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:15 am

Post by qwints »

In post 919, AngryPidgeon wrote:MM lurks. I don't think its alignment indicative.


I don't see how you can draw that conclusion from his completed games. At most, you could say that, based on the Tintin Game, he fell behind in the only long game he's really played.

I agree with Mastin and AP that the kush vote seems designed to try and force an AP lynch as the prospects as momentum beginning to fall behind. It's worth noting that it's the same L-2 vote he put on Dave. Combine that with how both his posts on Dave and his posts on AP seem to be pushing for a lynch while expressing reluctance and I agree with the scum read. I also haven't changed my read on Kthxbye.

I'll gladly support Kthxbye, kush's or MM's lynch.

@p-edit:

Mastin, read the whole post. That's a stupid misrep.
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Post Post #929 (isolation #27) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:21 am

Post by qwints »

In that post I looked at three factors in order of importance. The major one, his posting in this game, pointed towards scum. The two minor ones, activity level and meta, pointed in different directions, but both were based on way too small a sample size to be useful. You're not reading the post if you're saying it's me saying how town he was.

In post 917, qwints wrote:
MM Posting Review: tl;dr Scum staying out of the way of town fights
MM's relative activity level: Basically worthless sample size, but his activity here seems closer to his scum game than his town games.
Meta Summary: To the extent it means anything, it points towards town.
Conclusion, I like this as a lynch- especially given that people have seen him repeatedly reading the forum without posting.
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Post Post #945 (isolation #28) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:53 am

Post by qwints »

OMGUS
UNVOTE: MM
VOTE: Kthxbye

Willing to lynch kthxbye, kush and mm
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Post Post #951 (isolation #29) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:35 am

Post by qwints »

L-1, right?
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Post Post #957 (isolation #30) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:17 pm

Post by qwints »

Am I the only person you think is scum on your wagon?
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Post Post #970 (isolation #31) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:16 pm

Post by qwints »

Did we just find the real sk?

unvote
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Post Post #972 (isolation #32) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:21 pm

Post by qwints »

In post 491, Kthxbye wrote:
In post 476, Thor665 wrote:
Vote: Zipperflesh

Could you give an explanation? It's not like people aren't going to ask for it, so why just post a vote and nothing else?

---------------------------------------------------------------

As for the qwints hammer post 1 from him....

On one hand, AP makes some good points in defense of a town-qwints. None of it is provable or course, but it would be a very (almost too) bold an act for a scum-qwint's to hammer a claimed PR first post into his part of this game. So bold, it'd be hard to believe that it would be coming from a scum...making people think he must be bold town and just simply really really thought dave was lying....

On the other side...
In post 479, d3x wrote:Stifling D1 conversation, not waiting to hear anything from multiple player slots, Hammering before a consensus has been reached on the claim. These things are all AntiTown. I'm not saying they're scummy just yet, but they're definitely not in the Town's best interest.

^this.

I however disagree with the anti-town not meaning scummy. By definition, anti-town actions are scummy imo.

I'm a firm believer in if it smells like scum, looks like scum, and acts like scum, it must be scum. NOT if it's too scummy to be scum it must be town. Broken down into simple math we have:

town-qwints scum-qwints
too bold a move for scum stopped day 1 very early
stopped day 1 with 2 replacements still being needed
hammered claimed (and now confirmed) PR role

town-qwints in this case is highly unlikely with only a WIFOM bullet to support it.

VOTE: qwints

qwints turns scum, AP probable scum as well.


You posted this before I did anything on day 2. Like AP said, why not shoot me?
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Post Post #977 (isolation #33) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:27 pm

Post by qwints »

Did you shoot or didn't you?
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Post Post #999 (isolation #34) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 4:41 pm

Post by qwints »

Why the hell would you want to know how many bullets kthx as long as he shoots who we tell him to tonight?
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Post Post #1005 (isolation #35) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 4:58 pm

Post by qwints »

Let's lynch kush and have kthx shoot MM.

VOTE: kushm4sta
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Post Post #1037 (isolation #36) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:10 am

Post by qwints »

Mush, you can and should talk until the flip.
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Post Post #1043 (isolation #37) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:20 am

Post by qwints »

Mush, top 3 town reads?
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Post Post #1047 (isolation #38) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:32 am

Post by qwints »

The AP policy lynch proposal plus the attitude towards the Dave lynch is what threw me. Kthx, are you saying you're not committing to a shot? I recommend MM
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Post Post #1049 (isolation #39) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:38 am

Post by qwints »

Kush, who should kthx shoot?
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Post Post #1056 (isolation #40) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:00 am

Post by qwints »

Sure, kush you pick since you're about to flip. Kthx if you don't shoot whoever kush picks tonight, I'm lynching you tomorrow.
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Post Post #1057 (isolation #41) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:01 am

Post by qwints »

Assuming kush flips town and this series of comments isn't just messing with us.
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Post Post #1074 (isolation #42) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:46 am

Post by qwints »

I'd support a MM shot.
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Post Post #1106 (isolation #43) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:23 am

Post by qwints »

Mastin, I feel like you've had every player in this game as both town and scum without a lot of explanation [except for AP of course.] For example, you reversed course on Thor and dx3 pretty abruptly and without any real explanation:

In post 595, mastin2 wrote:Leaving just three names for scum: d3x, kthnxbye, and Thor.

Yeah. By POE alone, they'd be scum, but they've also got scumtastic interactions. (d3x also chainsaw defended Thor via trying to discredit AP in the early pages as well.)
Not only are their interactions horribad, but their play is (as far as I can tell) some of the worst in the game. For instance, Safety (who kthnxbye replaced) has some of the worst posts I've seen in my 100-game career.




In post 758, mastin2 wrote:4. Thor665
^Ambivalent. Not a day two lynch for that alone.
...
10. d3x
^Like Thor, ambivalent. Unlike Thor, I actually have a lean on him:
Town.
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #44) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:41 am

Post by qwints »

@mastin - Sure, but you didn't reverse course. You went from a scum read to sudden ambivalence on Thor without giving an explanation. Here's the last post you mention Thor and d3x before declaring your ambivalence:

In post 739, mastin2 wrote:My top three lynch order would be

kthnx
d3x
Thor
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Post Post #1138 (isolation #45) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 5:42 pm

Post by qwints »

Well, AP's confirmed town.

Kthx, who'd you shoot?
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Post Post #1157 (isolation #46) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 6:15 pm

Post by qwints »

Kthx, you didn't claim your target last night, and I'm pretty sure I wasn't the most mentioned of possible targets. A rb'er is quite plausible with all the PR's we've got, but I don't think it necessarily implicates me. Checking now.
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Post Post #1161 (isolation #47) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 6:20 pm

Post by qwints »

Checking your iso.

Spoiler: kthx talking about his shot
In post 1019, Kthxbye wrote:huh, guess instead of playing lol and posting between, I should have just read page 1

/shrug

Ok, so when thor give me a target, it's dead. I'll let scum decide if they want to kill me though. Not gonna let them know how many shots I have. Sorry AP. If I have 1, then they killed a townie everyone was suspicious of anyway...win for town. If they don't kill me and I have more than 1 shot, then they have to worry about me (ie thor) getting lucky and killing one of them...win for town. Win/win either way.

In post 1042, Kthxbye wrote:
In post 1033, Jake from State Farm wrote:The moment they lynched the cop, this game was fucked. If you flip town AP is the only lynch tomorrow.

Why is AP our only lynch tomorrow should kush flip town? (He won't but still)

Kush: Cuz you're scum. Don't worry, your scumbuddy qwints will be dead with you in short order.

In post 1088, Kthxbye wrote:I've made my decision and am going with gut. I think it gives scum too much power and info going into night by me saying who I'm going to shoot. Just know its someone with enough suspicion surrounding them to make it a good chance at hitting scum. If I survive the night, I'll explain but I believe in my read on this after today's events


Well, I think you have to read that as kthx crumbing a shot on me.
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Post Post #1180 (isolation #48) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 6:57 pm

Post by qwints »

In post 1175, AngryPidgeon wrote:

Qwints, what was your train of thought behind looking for Kthx crumbs? Why does it really matter / what did you expect to find?


My instinct was scum would be more likely to RB a vig if they thought he was shooting scum.
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Post Post #1187 (isolation #49) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:09 pm

Post by qwints »

In post 1181, AngryPidgeon wrote:Wouldnt they RB him anyways just to get him lynched for lying?


Maybe, but a bad vig kill gives town one less lynch before scum win (Lylo becomes Mylo).

Kthx, why'd you hammer yesterday when you thought my hammer was too fast Day 1?
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Post Post #1189 (isolation #50) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:14 pm

Post by qwints »

In post 1188, Jake from State Farm wrote:there is 50% chance you are the gf so you aren't confirmed town.


Huh? Mind showing your work?
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Post Post #1192 (isolation #51) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:21 pm

Post by qwints »

I thought zipper once kush flipped, but rereading, I see me as a more obvious choice.
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Post Post #1200 (isolation #52) » Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:16 am

Post by qwints »

I want to lynch Jake for his horrific use of probability. Assuming that there is one godfather, and that mastin's one investigation returned innocent on AP - the odds of AP being GF are much lower than 50%
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Post Post #1266 (isolation #53) » Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:04 am

Post by qwints »

In post 1259, Kthxbye wrote:Ready yourselves for qwints quick hammer to end the day early.


Dave wasn't V/LA when I hammered him. I was also much more confident in my scum read of him due to his behavior when scum-slipping and his talk of counterclaims. Instead I'll sheep the guy who's virtually certain to be town.

VOTE: Cybertronix
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Post Post #1276 (isolation #54) » Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:09 am

Post by qwints »

In post 1269, AngryPidgeon wrote:
In post 970, qwints wrote:Did we just find the real sk?

unvote

Qwints, why did you say this? As in, why do you think there is an SK at all? You didnt want to lynch either me or Jake IIRC and were confused at my policy of not lynching Jake when I thought he was one.


I said this because vig is a common fake claim for sk's.
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Post Post #1279 (isolation #55) » Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:28 am

Post by qwints »

In post 1275, AngryPidgeon wrote:

1. He just seems generally disinterested in the game. By that I mean 90% of his posts have been involving me (despite not suspecting me?). He seems more or less blase about who is getting wagoned (come on qwints, I KNOW you aren't a PMysterious alt)


It's a fair cop. I haven't felt like I've had something to really latch on to for most of this game. The epic AP-Jake flaming-spam didn't help, but mostly I just feel lost when it comes to my reads. Right now, I'm mostly just trying to stay active until something jumps out at me.

In post 1275, AngryPidgeon wrote:
2. His reason for writing me off as a townread was lazy and scummy. Posturing


Ongoing stuff I can't talk about
I focused on a detail that confirmed my overall read of you.

In post 1275, AngryPidgeon wrote:
3. His Dave hammer was pretty scummy actually (changed my mind). I think town-qwints would at LEAST have waited to catch up or (if he were already caught up) made a post about who he thinks is also scum before hammering.


I was really confident in that read, and I thought further discussion was likely to harm town. We had plenty of information about Dave's impending lynch at that point. Was there anything he could have said to change your mind that he was the day 1 lynch?

In post 1275, AngryPidgeon wrote:
4. Accuses Zipper of daytalk scumslip but doesnt notice anything else wrong with the post in question (that it looks like damage control, Zippers qwints read came from nowhere, and that Zipper has had no original thought all game) He later drops that after I point out there is no reason town-Zipper wouldnt assume daytalk.


Fair enough on the first point. You skipped a step on the second - you, incorrectly, made a claim about zipper's meta. When I checked his meta, I saw the game he'd been in with daytalk.

AngryPidgeon wrote:But we have no reason to think there is an SK in the game at all. What has your read on Kthx been throughout the game?


None, except the excruciatingly long argument between you and Jake that basically assumed a SK was in the game. In that context, the remark made sense given that SK's often claim vig. My read's been that kthx is prob-scum, but his posting after the claim has thrown me.
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Post Post #1283 (isolation #56) » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:28 am

Post by qwints »

The question for kthx, if he's actually a town vig, is "Am I more likely to shoot correctly tonight than town is to lynch correctly?" The answer is likely yes since kthx's random probability is a coinflip whereas (assuming 3 scum) only 1 of 3 townies needs to be fooled for town to win.That question probably doesn't matter, since there's no reason to believe a truthful kthx will be able to shoot tonight when he couldn't shoot last night.
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Post Post #1285 (isolation #57) » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:31 am

Post by qwints »

UNVOTE: Cybertronix
VOTE: Zipper
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Post Post #1286 (isolation #58) » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:33 am

Post by qwints »

All right, here me out.

I know i just lost the game for town if I'm wrong on zipper, but I think I'm the only other person who's likely to get lynched and I know that's a mislynch that also probably leads to a town loss.
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Post Post #1305 (isolation #59) » Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:56 am

Post by qwints »

@AP, I said I
was
confident about my read on Dave. I've lost the game for town because there's no way I avoid being mislynched tomorrow if zipper flips town and I know that. That doesn't mean I'm not going to try regardless of how he flips, but I'm aware that it's a hell of a risky move. Yes, I am hammering explicitly to avoid being lynched today - too many of my town reads have me, wrongly as scum and the D1 hammer gives scum every excuse to push for my mislynch.

@kthx, I think you should shoot tonight without revealing your target beforehand. Scum are likely to believe you'll incorrectly shoot me and thus may let the shot go through.
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Post Post #1313 (isolation #60) » Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:00 pm

Post by qwints »

In post 1310, AngryPidgeon wrote:
Zipper flips town. Kthx shoots. He is hitting a pool of 6 players (Kthx not in it). If he is a Vig he can prove it by taking that shot.


I presume it's 6 because you're excluding yourself as well as kthx, which makes sense but should be made explicit. Bottom line kthx, do you trust yourself to choose correctly more than you trust every remaining townie to vote correctly in the event zipper flips town.
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Post Post #1319 (isolation #61) » Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:21 am

Post by qwints »

Kj assuming zipper is town here?
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Post Post #1360 (isolation #62) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 2:23 am

Post by qwints »

Looks like I need to claim either way: Vanilla Townie.
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Post Post #1362 (isolation #63) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:38 am

Post by qwints »

Popcorn KillerJester
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Post Post #1370 (isolation #64) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:13 pm

Post by qwints »

Let me explain my thinking from yesterday, then analyze the situation.

Yesterday, I believed that I was not likely to have the opportunity to hammer zipper for long and that I was the next likely lynch target. Given the fact that I know I'm town and that I thought there was a good chance that zipper was scum, I hammered zipper. I was less confident of zipper being scum than I was of Dave being scum, but the situation was quite different. I was quite aware of the possibility that zipper would flip town would lead to my quick mislynch today and thus a town loss.

Luckily, that didn't happen and zipper was actually scum. I actually think that given the fact that there appeared to be support for a wagon on several other players that scum could have been on with little risk given AP's conf-town status and vocal support for Cyber or me as options. D3x sticks out as a player who quickly got on the cyber wagon after AP initiated it in what could have been an effort to get pressure off zipper. Jake looks really good for placing Zipper at L-1 after the two earlier Cyber votes from AP and D3x. If I had to call scum with a gut read right now it'd be D3x and killer jester. I'll re-read to try and evaluate that.
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Post Post #1375 (isolation #65) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:40 pm

Post by qwints »

Look at D3x's exchange with Dave at the end of Day 1. It's the epitome of trying to get a mislynch through without over committing himself. He pushes for a claim without stating intent to hammer (even expressly disclaiming it.) He agrees that they should lynch dave after the replacements chime in. When Dave claims, he attacks the claim by asking "any breadcrumbs" and continues to call Dave scummy without suggesting that he will hammer. He ignores Jake's comments about policy. Those posts look to me like a cautious scum letting town lynch a scummy player. His play is similar on day 2. Although he actually has his vote on Kush, he's not a big part of the quick wagon on Kush. He follows AP's vote with a quick summary of Kush's play but doesn't really press the case.

Finally, note that D3x claims he thought kthx was going to shoot him. This would, of course, be a good reason to RB him. The post he's linking to reeks of paranoid scum.

In post 1128, d3x wrote:So who'd you shoot, Kthx? Based upon your p1088, I figured it'd be me.


VOTE: d3x

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