Mini 1426 - Hell's Bottom

[Mr. Flay]

Interesting that we only have 12 players instead of 13.

I haven't played in a while, so I'll start with a question: who do you each think the most dangerous scumteam would be?

[Mr. Flay]

Mentioned he hasn't played in a while. Why would he mention that? Possibly trying to be able to pass off future scum slips as him being rusty. Also, his question doesn't really help the town scumhunt, but it's an attempt to make himself look townier.

I haven't played in quite some time, therefore I am unfamiliar with the current 'power players'. Later it will become important who is still alive and who is dead.

I don't do RVS, so my first post is either going to be contentless or contain 'random' questions.

[Mr. Flay]

These two statements don't follow logically. If you don't "do" RVS, then by definition your first post should be contentful and contain pertinent questions.

Read again. Also note that I was the FIRST person to post after the mod announced D1. What content was I going to provide/analyze, other than questions? RQS isn't for spamming, either. As already explained, my question was pertinent, both to me and to the game as a whole. How people react to it is also important (to me).

The rest of your post is (to borrow a phrase) unmitigated bullshit so it's not even worth responding to. Bub may have felt like he had a reason to vote, but you're just spouting crap. Tell me again what RVS is "for" and why I should participate in it? Nobody ever "answers" for Random Votes.

More content in the morning, but I will definitely be looking at Blue Yoshi's posts more.

[Mr. Flay]

Still yet to see a post from qwints, YOLO and keybladewielder. Not sure why they're so keen to lie low.

That's because... they haven't posted yet? Not sure how you can claim they're "lying low" after ~24 hours.

[Mr. Flay]

Second tier would be something like Bomb and

KBW

.

Your second tier for scumminess includes someone who hasn't posted yet?? Explain the "confirmation timing" thing, I wasn't watching the game then. Also, are you one of those who hunts by finding Scum in a sea of Town, or finding Town in a sea of Scum? i.e. what is your default assumption?

Question goes for anybody else who wants to answer, too. Me, I tend toward assuming scum until proven otherwise.

I don't do RVS, so my first post is either going to be contentless or contain 'random' questions.

These two statements don't follow logically. If you don't "do" RVS, then by definition your first post should be contentful and contain pertinent questions. By saying you don't do RVS but you also aren't going to post any content, what you're really saying is "I'm going to post unreadable shit AND not give you a vote to be analyzed later." You're trying to have your cake and eat it it too.

I'm going to chalk you up to "not getting it" for now, but keep an eye on you for later. RVS/RQS is just a way to kick off the lowest-information stage of the game. Since Day Starts have become the norm, it is much harder to get the ball rolling. Whatever people do to get information is fine, so long as it's actually forwarding the game. "wait and see what other people do next" (i.e. Blue Yoshi) is not useful. Lurking is not useful. Attacking is useful, so I'll grant you that. As for why I posted, I was online and it got the game into my topiclist. Usually I'll wait and pounce, as you'll see from older games.

Elyse

, why are you so worried about Rainbowdash's -pony fixation? That's basically all you've posted so far.

[Mr. Flay]

Not necessarily, because even though it's a good start to get out of rvs, it's a bit hasty.
Plus I have yet to

see what Flay is actually going to do next

.

In my other game getting out if RVS was quick and when we got the ball rolling discussion really picked up.
And w

e're already starting the transition

.

Consider the discussion we are having now

.
Crazy, right?

Though you've shown me that you aren't too too willing to let stuff slip past you.

I'll be waiting to see what you do next!

I was mostly talking about the discussion we're having right now, all fueled by the random vote I made.
While RVS is good for its own sake, it's good to get out of fast, and if things start slowing down doing something to create some sort of discussion is always fine.

I just like to start discussion rolling

.

This is all of your posts except the first and most recent. Where are you "starting discussion" here? Where are you "looking for scum"? You're posting often but not really saying anything for yourself. All of your posts are either contentless or referencing other people's words, not your own. You're actively lurking.

Flay, i don't really understand your explanation on not doing RVS becuz youclearly seem to be fine with attacking people but not RVS, how does you attack can pressurize a person with out voting them? if you want some one to talk..you put pressure them with your vote, no body is going to slip or talk without actual pressure.

And not being in the site for long time doesn't make you a different player. that looks like an apparent excuse...

Where did I say I was a different player than I used to be? I just said I was out of the mix and didn't know the playerbase as well as I used to. What do you think I'm trying to excuse?

For the last time, RVS =/= pressure. Questions can generate pressure just fine. RVS is random unless explicitly stated otherwise (Bub is a good example of this, as is Rainbow). RVS is just a method of getting the ball rolling so you can

then

do something that generates pressure. We're already out of it, which is the whole point in not participating in the traditional dice-rolling way.

[Mr. Flay]

and btw, I'm playing another game too Toadette. my brain isn't fully on this one.

VOTE: Keybladewielder - get in the game, then. Playing multiple games is no excuse not to, you know, play multiple games. Also your attitude sucks, as personal attacks are extremely unlikely to remove votes from you.

Blue Yoshi: I disagree about your ability to direct or stir up anything with those posts. *shrug*

[Mr. Flay]

Are you voting KBW because you think he's scum or because you think he's a bad player?

Both. If he comes around and starts contributing in a non-scummy/non-harmful-to-town way, great, I'll unvote. Until then, I don't see you making a better case for D1 lynch.

Which is why we shouldn't really even be considering voting KBW today.

When

do

we lynch the Village Idiots, then? Scum aren't going to kill them. "Asking" them to replace out isn't a good plan. What is your plan for dealing with them?

So what, we have a competition for who can actually be the village idiot? Is it Flay or is it KBW?

Several people have independently suspected Flay based on legitimate arguments. Bubs in #6, myself in #24, Angel in #44, YOLO in #76, KBW in #78, and yourself in #81. That's half the participants all calling YOLO out for scummy play within the first 90 posts. At what point does he go from potential VI to plain-old scum?

Are you seriously...what? That doesn't even make sense. Is that supposed to say "That's half the participants all calling Flay out"?

Read my posts again. Then try to see where I'm actually going with this, rather than just attacking the guy who doesn't do what you expect.

[Mr. Flay]

1) Flay is being weird. Inconsistent with what he says and what he does, but everyone has covered this ground before me.

I would still like for someone to explain how I'm being 'inconsistent'. I'm seeing a lot of bare claims designed to delegitimize me, but nothing actually provable.

While waiting for KBW, I'll also say that Elyse is actively lurking. Her posts have very little engagement and seem to mostly veer off into any topic except actual scumhunting. Not a strong tell, but not a bad one either.

Welcome qwints. Looking forward to the fresh perspective.

[Mr. Flay]

How do my posts have very little engagement? At all? And besides asking Rainbow about his posting, what topics have I veered off on?
And then you go and say it's not even strong. Why put down your own reads/tells?

It's early D1. All tells at this point are going to be small, realistically. But I think an ISO of you shows a lot of non-scumhunting, like jeromus said. ISO 2/3/4 are about ponies. ISO 5 is avatar-related, and some attacks on KBW. ISO 7 is an unvote on KBW once he gives up his role, which is scummy as fuck. ISO 11/12 are personal attacks on jeromus. ISO 13 is an apology for those, and that catches us up to when I made my comment about your contributions (Post 120).

That said...

My fear to vote comes from a lot of IRL Mafia. If you put down 1 vote, it can lead to a 6 second quicklynch based on stupidity. I've come to be very cautious with my vote.

You're kidding, right? You've been here since 2009 and you still fear a first-vote-leading-to-quicklynch? C'mon, pull the other one...

I never voted Blue Yoshi. I suspected him, but I suspect most people at this point in the game. We're still very early in the game and too many people are semi-inactive to form strong reads. Basically the only one I have no problem with is Dash, but that may be because others are getting hyperdistracted by the pony roleplay. What a lovely bunch of topics to avoid scumhunting with.... ponies, avatars, groundings. And no one bloody answers questions anymore, so that's awesome.

I think Bub is misguided Town. Your case on me relies on KBW's alignment...really? But

I

am the one who seems to know KBW's alignment? Note that I

never

said KBW was Town, only that Scum isn't going to kill a Village Idiot (they won't kill them if they're on their own team either, will they?). If he's scum, he's got a good army of people backing him up. If he's Town, he's got to do better than he's doing right now. Again, HOW DO YOU DEAL WITH VILLAGE IDIOTS WITHOUT LYNCHING THEM? Anyone? Especially VI's who claim VT without pressure.

UNVOTE: Keybladewielder - good gods do I hope he replaces out, though. Posting from an iPod explains some, but not all, of the idiotic content of his posts.

[Mr. Flay]

Flay, my posts contain more than what your are saying.

Indeed, but they also contain what I

am

saying - which is to say, fluff. One doesn't build a case on the parts that don't fit... (actually you can, but that way lies accusations of 'wishy-washy').

But who is your top scumread as of now?

You're maybe #4, tops. I just think you're worth keeping a strong eye on.

I need to backread jeromus' older games, but he's a strong candidate for my vote right now, especially after 175. KBW and YOLO are very concerning, but I don't really have enough posts from them to make a strong case (this is the problem with lurkers; see also Yoshi, ArcAngel...). I'm on the fence about Desperado, but he does seem to be trying, and I like his breakdown of jeromus, which no one else had really done at that point.

Frequent reactions to some of what happened are much more useful than rare big catch up posts.

Indeed; I know I missed yesterday, but I only have a few minutes before work this morning. Will reread tomorrow morning and vote.

Your iso is 10x worse than Flay thinks Elyse's is.

That has to be the weirdest chain-accusation I've ever seen...

[Mr. Flay]

YOLO
Has been a really lurking player (actually only has 5 posts) and even asked someone else why they were lurking. Only one of his 5 posts were really that useful to look at, and it was just a catch-up post that didn't explain much about him.

I'm assuming your lack of Town/Scum/Null rating here was an oversight?

Liking the new Blue Yoshi (asumming he keeps it up).

If someone claims for absolutely no reason, I am going to question that claim. I'm actually rather surprised noone else commented on it.

What's to discuss about a VT claim on D1? What would you think that player was hiding? It's usually just someone being spastic, especially when unprovoked. I'm not trying to get you to discuss anything else about the roleclaim, but this seems like theory-based posting rather than actually having your head in this game.

I'm surprised about the lack of good stuff from Mr. Flay. When he replaced in, I was quite happy because I assumed we were going to see some amazing moves from him, with him being the site head and long time player and all. But his play so far has been very disappointing. He hasn't done much really.

*shrug* It's early still; my strength is in lategame once I have a lot to analyze. And really, length of time on site has very little to do with being a 'good' player. Not that I'm bad, just that I'm middle of the pack overall. My lynch accuracy is just slightly above random, in fact (which is better than a bad player, at least).

---

So, looked over jeromus' old games. His claim to be worried about quicklynches falls way flat in the face of something like a dozen completed games. Yes, like me you haven't played much in the last two years, but seriously? You know better than to spout that crap, especially after this:

I...Wow, alright, loving the quicklynch... Bring on Day 3.

Mini 1152 also seems to be much higher quality play, as is NG 926. One is scum, the other is as town, so I'm not playing confirmation-bias-billiards.
Also you seem to be wanting to deflect hardcore onto Elyse now that pressure is on you. VOTE: jeromus (that should be L-2).

[Mr. Flay]

Welcome back KBW. Is your access fixed? Have you read the thread?

[Mr. Flay]

Checking in, real post after school

Hello HD, its good to see you here!! I was lost pretty much here. Will be joining you soon.
Hope you're not scum

Hi there. Your 'catchup' and reads are almost a week overdue. More contentless posts are not the answer.

[Mr. Flay]

I haven't read the game yet.

Still eagerly waiting for a good vote to have.

Read, then vote, is the usual order of operations. Why are you looking to sheep someone else's opinion of who to sheep?

[Mr. Flay]

Flay's late jump onto the Jeromus wagon seems fishy, but Jeromus has been scummy independently. At least one is town.

"late"? I was gone from Friday to Sunday. Nobody additionally voted him in that time, and I'd had time to backread him. If I'd voted early, you'd be accusing me of pushing his wagon. Stop confirming your own biases, Bub.

[Mr. Flay]

That was from a game with a day that lasted a little bit over a page. Clearly sarcastic in the context.

So was the concern about quicklynching in this game sarcastic too? Because you haven't recanted it, despite it being 100% crap.

Before D1 ends, I would really like to see a Player by Player from everyone, myself included.

I don't agree that complete Player by Player breakdowns are helpful, especially not this early in the game. All you're doing is telling scum who to Nightkill, and setting up spurious lynches for later. Everyone should do a top 3 or so before D1 ends, though.

I definitely do not agree with the L-1 wagon on Jeromus and I am completely surprised Rainbowdash even goes as far as to ask for a claim. Where is the case on Jeromus? I can see the 'few content in lots of posts' argument but that's not nearly enough for a lynch, especially not when deadline is so far away. Someone should unvote Jeromus asap.

So make a different case. Are you seriously suggesting Bomb-scum replaced out while under no pressure and HD-scum came in, learned his role, and immediately slipped? If not,

why are you voting him

? We're very far from RVS by now.

[Mr. Flay]

Kids these days...

jeromus, you're not dead yet. Let's see that post.

[Mr. Flay]

I actually thought I unvoted so was hammering.

Fucking seriously??

Argh. UNVOTE: jeromus based on recent activity. He's probably still the strongest D1 lynch but the last few posts have been supertown. Although he still gave a full player-by-player which is annoying...

Also Elyse is giving me hives. WTH??

[Mr. Flay]

Here's what I don't get: YOLO was the only person, IIRC, to express any legitimate reservations on a Jeromus lynch prior to the qwints and Rainbow fake hammers, which were incredibly unsubtle. Now we're unvoting due to a series of reactions that could just as easily be forced as genuine?

*shrug* You see it as forced, I saw it as genuine (at least insofar as he thought he was lynched).

YOLO: way out there, not focusing much on this game, seems to be voting HD because he suggested prod on YOLO.

OMGUP.

An acronym says what?

I definitely do not agree with the L-1 wagon on Jeromus and I am completely surprised Rainbowdash even goes as far as to ask for a claim. Where is the case on Jeromus? I can see the 'few content in lots of posts' argument but that's not nearly enough for a lynch, especially not when deadline is so far away. Someone should unvote Jeromus asap.

So make a different case. Are you seriously suggesting Bomb-scum replaced out while under no pressure and HD-scum came in, learned his role, and immediately slipped? If not,

why are you voting him

? We're very far from RVS by now.

All those things are irrelevant. If I see a scummy post, I pursue it, I don't go 'Well this guy's predecessor was under no pressure and he just replaced in, so this game is probably not going to do anything scummy in his first post so I'm wrong'. In fact, this suggestion seems quite absurd.

You never said what you found scummy about Human Destroyer's opening post, though. I mean, ArcAngel has a way lower time-to-content ratio. I don't get your hardon for a HDlynch, hence why I asked. And you're still not really giving any reasons, except that it's somehow scummy to... replace? Did you find Bomb suspicious before he was replaced? Your ISO says no. What motivations are you finding for HD-scum to announce that he's sheeping??

DEAR GOD YOU PEOPLE FRUSTRATE ME.

Argh. UNVOTE: jeromus based on recent activity. He's probably still the strongest D1 lynch but the last few posts have been supertown. Although he still gave a full player-by-player which is annoying...

So supertown, but still the best lynch?

(Once again) that's not what I said. I said

those few posts

had been very town. I still find him overall suspect, but was no longer ready for a lynch without more reading.

[Mr. Flay]

You folks are lucky, this is next on my priority list.

Content in the next hour or two.

FUCKING HELL I HAD HALF A POST DONE

CHROME DAMMIT

It's now Saturday evening. Where's that post, HD?

[Mr. Flay]

Posting to say that I'm out of pocket most of today, and that hopefully nobody freaks out if posts appear out of order (see Global Announcement).

[Mr. Flay]

Bub is neither voting you nor pushing for your lynch. Rather than worrying about 'why' and making vague aspersions about his scumminess, spend your time actually contributing. :pedit: What dash said.
Also, you're at 4 of 7 votes needed to lynch. No worry about a rush, but don't dawdle either. We have five days left of D1, assuming we don't get an extension for the Blue Yoshi replacement.

For now AA reads as newbie-null to me, but I could see that as a compromise lynch. However Elyse's "welp lynch the easy target" pushes me the wrong way. VOTE: Elyse

Elyse how did you go from "why is AA obv scum?" to "I'm willing to l(y)nch AA now" in less than 24 hours? Why are you dropping your major suspicions of BY just because he's replacing?

[Mr. Flay]

Had not noticed D2 started. Will post tomorrow.

[Mr. Flay]

...Wow Scum, you're awful people.

"OH HEY A NEW DAY TO PLAY SOME MAFIA BUMDEBUM" - DENIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED

/inb4 scumtell - oh wait.

I understand you don't like RVS, but that accomplishes something by putting pressure on players; how is asking a useless question better than doing such?

I'm going to ask this again, what does a contentless or RQS post do that makes it better than an RVS post?

We covered all of this in Day One,

extensively

. Nobody took the bait I was offering to skip RVS entirely, but that doesn't make it bad play. You not understanding Rainbowdash's 'defense' of my non-RVS strategy just shows that you're missing the point, if not entirely scum.

The rest of your posts are basically predicated on me distancing from a scumbuddy, so uhh no thanks. Ignoring the rest.

No, it just takes Blue Yoshi out of it.

Difference is Flay was distancing himself from a townflip rather than his buddy.

Yeah, you're just throwing shit at the wall at this point. 2/3 of your case was built on the Blue Yoshi/Flay team, and then when corrected you blew it off. You're not reading the game, you're posting semirandomly and it should STOP. Take the time to actually play, HD. Only thing that's keeping me from voting you is that scum are unlikely to forget who they killed (I'm not buying dash's vig-speculation without a claim, but agree that if it's true we should have one).

Speaking of which, I'd like to see your next post contain something other than vig-spec, dash. So far you've avoided any reaction to D1 entirely.

[Mr. Flay]

HD, now that you know that your page one scumteam is impossible does it change your reads at all?

This doesn't change my feelings on Jeromus either. Notice how AA was cheerleading the Jeromus lynch without actually joining it, and her general lack of participation during basically the entire "should we or shouldn't we lynch Jeromus" period of the game. They're both scum for me at this point.

Same question to you that you put to HD - AA is deadtown now. Does that impact your jeromusscum read any? If not, why not? I realize that I'm still your second choice, but your case seems to be falling apart here. Why is jeromus better for scum than me today? The day opener post?

Looking at Blue Yoshi's ISO, I'm not seeing any Power Role tells to speak of, and he really only seems to strongly suspect two people: KBW and jeromus. Of the two I can only see KBW killing him for it. Pair that with the lack of posting today so far (while being active on the site),and you end up with VOTE: Keybladewielder. I do find the change of tone & apology from Elyse interesting, however.

[Mr. Flay]

What defense?

Not #47, #27. You already commented on it.

Im pretty unsure about BY at this point and really trying to guage if he even really understands what im getting at here. I dont really think he knows why I think he is scummy and that may negate the validity of the tell. Also you are misinterpreting what Flay is saying which is "first post is going to be basically contentless or a random vote that has no bearing so im going to ask a question". I dont like it, but hey... he may be the only pony here that has been around the block for longer than I have and quints may be the only one who comes close to me.

Essentially he's giving me credit for actually having a motive here. I'm not new here, I actually do have reasons for what I do. Just because you don't understand them doesn't make them not true (again, go read my posts from early D1 again, I'm not repeating myself).

My head hurts from all this WIFOM and night speculation.

Night Speculation is a dead art. Dash and I date back from when it was actually used. I don't quite understand his logic yet either, but I can't fault him for trying given the WEIRD choice.

I would say my read on AA was more connected with Jeromus than the other way around; clearly this bit of scumhunting didn't work out, but Jeromus wasn't getting lynched yesterday and AA was the next best bet based on what I saw. My case on Jeromus was never dependent on AA being scum their flip isn't really even relevant. My case on Jeromus was never dependent on AA being scum their flip isn't really even relevant.

Okay, that makes some sense, but #349 still seems to say AA is bolstering your jeromus case, and jeromus WAS a nearlynch yesterday before the fakehammers. And you were on that wagon, as I recall.

[Mr. Flay]

I was on it and I stayed on it for as long as it seemed like Jeromus might get lynched. Because I think he's scum. My case on Jeromus was entirely independent of AA, and was made far before AA was even put forth as a candidate. I wish Jeromus had actually gotten lynched and still don't understand how the fakehammers let to us unvoting him. I'm really not sure what you're implying.

Nevermind, was confusing you with somebody else in my brain.

[Mr. Flay]

KBW, last page:

Looking at Blue Yoshi's ISO, I'm not seeing any Power Role tells to speak of, and he really only seems to strongly suspect two people: KBW and jeromus. Of the two I can only see KBW killing him for it. Pair that with the lack of posting today so far (while being active on the site),and you end up with VOTE: Keybladewielder.

RBD doesn't your YOLOvote require jeromus to be scumbuddies with him, though? I'm not following but it may be the lack of commas. Also I don't like the company being kept on the jeromuswagon.

[Mr. Flay]

Hold it. How does that equal a scumtell. A) I had nothing to say. B) Wouldn't I I've killed him then if what you say is true?

Huh? I may not have been clear, I am saying you DID kill him. At night. He was (presumably, given the lack of a Vigclaim on RBD's request) the Scum NK. Given that it's such an unusual choice, I think Night Analysis makes sense here.

I'm saying you're scum. Hence my vote on you. Is that clearer??

Also, I know it's spring break for some people and all, but there really needs to be more posting (and I include myself, but I'm at least managing once a day I think)

[Mr. Flay]

Is this KBW's way of asking to be shot? Holy christ @ the last few posts

This. Village Idiots are a perfect vig-shot, if you're not just testing for reactions. If he's Town, we get another lynch without having to argue the merits of policy lynches, or letting this guy live to endgame.

[Mr. Flay]

I get in a snowstorm and forget my password for 3 lousy days, and you guys do THIS?

Rereading right now, but Desperado is giving me a shit sandwich feel with #499.

[Mr. Flay]

Ooookay, now having read this page, qwints are you smoking shit? Everybody calm the fuck down, snap votes is how we got here.

Desperado, unvote NOW. And then explain how you know we're in LyLo (506)?

[Mr. Flay]

Mr. Flay, is Desperado scum?

Probably, but I don't know.

Neither do you

, unless you're a Cop or his scumbuddy pulling a doublebus! Look, I appreciate that you're the target of his vote in possible LyLo. But you're taking confirmation bias to an unhealthy degree right now ("since we're sure that desperado is scum", etc). Town does stupid shit (especially when faced with a Village Idiot) ALL THE TIME. We need a better reason not to massclaim than "lol don't give scum more info". Scum is already way ahead of the game already, with 5 dead Town. Town needs ALL the information it can get right now. And that means Desperado unvoting, and you continuing the popcorn claim.

And I'm not unvoting scum, especially when I have a greater than 50% chance of being correct with Elyse still alive and especially especially given qwints' actions to start the day.

Same goes for you. You don't KNOW he's scum, certainly not with 50% accuracy. What does Elyse have to do with it?

I don't know, I'm speculating and operating under that assumption. With a 12 player start it was likely either 9-3 or 9-2-1...in either case we don't have another ml available to us.

What are you smoking to think 9-2-1 is even a possibility here??

[Mr. Flay]

Also, I'd vote Desperado for voting in LyLo, but I'm going to be out of pocket all day at a wedding and related crap. If he's still voting tonight, I will.

[Mr. Flay]

Setup speculation should stop until massclaim is finished.

[Mr. Flay]

If we come to a consensus that we are lynching Desperado, then we push massclaim until the next day so our PRs have a chance to do something. Ok?

Uhhh, no? Some people are working with too many assumptions here, namely that Desperado is already the lynch for today. Part of a massclaim is to SPOT BAD CLAIMS. We may end up with a better target, we may not, but order of operations is important.

[Mr. Flay]

Flay - "Probably, I don't know."

The "I don't know" is silent on all lynches for me, so you can leave that part off.

[Mr. Flay]

Given that thats me claiming vanilla, flay can claim next.

Townie; YOLO next.

[Mr. Flay]

Mod:

Did scum get nightchat before the game started?

[Mr. Flay]

Why do you keep assuming there's a scum RB, qwints? No actions have been blocked that I've heard of, and that doesn't really work well with a Day Vig in my brain.

Also I really don't see why a protective role would claim truthfully in this situation. It's pretty much an autowin if they can defend you tonight.

[Mr. Flay]

Yeah, 3:9 is plenty all by itself to me.

I'm unclear if you're asking for full reads from everybody in 568, or just the two likely deaths. I don't know that it makes much difference given the contraction of choices, but I need to reread Desperado and you now.

[Mr. Flay]

Yeah, 506 is another good example.

[Mr. Flay]

Flay is one scum

Quoi?

[Mr. Flay]

Anyway, I think we're done talking.

Why? We've got a lot of time, and the information I didn't want scum to have is already out there. The only more information that could hurt us tonight is a lying protective role getting outed, and I don't see that as a significant danger. At this point, why not try to get more information out there? There's the added bonus that scum don't have a chance to co-ordinate (unless they have daytalk, I guess, but that's uncommon in my experience).

We're certainly lynching Desperado, but I'd like Elyse and I to be able to do more for town before the day ends.

I guess I'm confused on what you want to get out of drawing things out? Are you expecting a tearful confession from another scum?

Flay is one scum

Quoi?

Mostly how Desp accused jeromus of coaching you (only use of the term for him entire game) and how while even voting you early stage he downplayed you as possible VI using the fact that I defended you as reason to move his vote.

*scratches head* So a dead townie "coaches" me, and copped-scum calling it out makes ME scum? Run that by me again?

Also I'm pretty sure all the "Flay is a VI" crap at the beginning of the game is just playstyle-related. Used to be I had BoP, now I'm a weird old man.

[Mr. Flay]

*scratches head* So a dead townie "coaches" me, and copped-scum calling it out makes ME scum? Run that by me again?

Yep. Coaching is a term used for scum telling other scum what to do. Desp sounds like he is calling jeromus scum for coaching you, and I dont really think when we see thats somethig Desp doesnt normally talk about he doesnt come up with it without one of you being scum. Here I think he is scum with you so called jeromus on something that is scummy because he knows that you are scum so it actually becomes an alignment tell.

Yeah, okay. "coaching" is not a 100% tell, so you're just talking. Cool.

FWIW I actually understand what qwints is saying about picking a scummy target. RBD is relying WAY too much on absolutes and theory here, and it's ringing scummy to me.
Mod: .... uhhh, since you're not going to confirm him as scum hopefully, then...yes?

[Mr. Flay]

@Flay - Its not as much dealing with absolutes than it is when play is poor from a decent player, goes against theory and is convient, its something to pay close attention to. Picking a scummy target is essentially always bad play as a cop outside of being in something almost gamebreaking, so I will call him out on it.

Agree to disagree, then. After several mislynches, I'll tend to go with a scummy target for Copping, as it'll either avoid a mislynch or confirm a good target.

I just think your current Desperado-read is retroactive from 539. You've 'suspected' pretty much everybody in the game at some point, and always have a theory to support it.

[Mr. Flay]

I am here, present, and prepared to be lynched. Not much I can do about a cop investigation.

I was hoping for some Antonio Banderas quotes at this stage of resignation...

I'll vote whenever qwints does at this point; I don't think he's going to get anything more out of today, but he's dead man walking.

[Mr. Flay]

... Really? Two votes in the first two posts of the day, guys? More shitty theoryposting from RBD to justify it?? Come on, spell out your 'case'. Oh right, you don't have one, because all you've done all game is hunt power roles and talk theory.

I can't decide which of you is town and which is scum, but right now I'm leaning HDscum for that second vote. RBD has just been firing into the crowd all game, which strikes me as overconfidence.

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry, I'm up to my neck in Scummies images right now. I just didn't expect to come in to an almost-quicklynch.

You're certainly bright enough to be scum playing this way, but I haven't read any of your meta. Also no way town drops the second vote in probable LYLO like that, so it might still be both of you. Want to hear from YOLO as well before we go anywhere... he hasn't posted since dawn, but was around a lot Sunday before deadline.

Only clear for me is Elyse, since she could have hammered and didn't.

[Mr. Flay]

Only clear for me is Elyse, since she could have hammered and didn't.

Or it could be them being the cop cleared day vig. That too.

I trust in-thread actions over role results.

More tomorrow. Today is swamped.

[Mr. Flay]

Desperado analysis first, since he's the known quantity:

• Day One, he not-random votes
  Flay
  , and clears RBD/
  Yoshi
  /
  Bub
  in his second post. He goes after
  Elyse
  , but half-heartedly, and clears
  KBW
  from even being a candidate for lynch. He spends a great deal of time yelling at
  jeromus
  w/o voting him. Mostly he has a hard-on for voting me, even going so far as to call me a Village Idiot for not following the RVSheep.
  
• UNTIL... someone gives him a 'townread' on me, and three guesses who gave him that excuse to flip to
  jeromus
  , the first D1 forced claim? 172 gives the answer of
  RBD
  , for those following along at home. Hint: It's the same person who first voted jeromus, then unvoted, then revoted to be 4th, providing momentum, then later thought they were hammering him,
  for information
  .
  
• Interestingly, he doesn't find HD scummy for lacking contributions after replacing Bomb, but tells him "Get your shit together and start playing or just replace right out".
  Coaching
  much??
  
• After the VT claim from jeromus, he jumps ship to the
  ArcAngel
  lynch, which accelerates to completion in a day and a half. Lynchlist: Rainbowdash, YOLO,
  qwints
  ,
  Keybladewielder
  ,
  Desperado
  ,
  Elyse
  , Human Destroyer
  
• Day Two he goes back to
  Flay
  /
  jeromus
  as his favored wagons. He votes jeromus until
  Elyse
  shoots him, then switches to
  Flay
  briefly, then bounces on HD and finishing up on the second mislynch (
  KBW
  ), while actually calling a scumteam of RBD/
  qwints
  /HD.
  
• He does have a pretty swift reaction to Elyse's paranoia about a RBD/
  Desperado
  /
  Bub
  scumteam.
  
• Day Three: Not knowing he's been copped, he comes out the gate going after...
  qwints
  ?? qwints's copclaim is pretty clear in retrospect, but Desp doubles down without any indication that he's busted. Mafia Rolecop on the team? If his slip about 3 scum is accurate then town was in LyLo at that point, and he may have been going for a quick finish hoping his team would vote before the claim. After the Cop claim, Desperado pretty much shuts down, so we're done here.

More later, but my lunch break is over already. I'm not ready to vote, but combined with the opening votes today, you can see where I'm leaning. Desperado went after town consistently for mislynches, and doesn't seem the bussing type, which goes along with the suboptimal NKs. The only one that really bothers me is the Bub kill after Elyse names her paranoia-scum.

Tonight I'll look at HD and YOLO.

[Mr. Flay]

Interestingly, he doesn't find HD scummy for lacking contributions after replacing Bomb, but tells him "Get your shit together and start playing or just replace right out". Coaching much??

>implying a newb would coach

lmao

*shrug* I'm not the one with the hardon for the 'coaching=scum' thing. But it's pretty clear that RBD wasn't actually reading for content, or he'd have called this out too.

How is THIS the part that bugs you?

That was not the most unpredictable kill by a long shot for half smart scum.

That's the part that bugs me

about you being scumbuddies with him

. I didn't say it was a bad kill, it's really the first one that made any sense. Why not kill off the oldbies first? scum in the oldbies needed cover?

Also I'm really not seeing a two-man scum team against this kind of town power, much less a team with one Goon. Why is it you're the ONLY one pushing for a two-man team, that would just conveniently give us an extra "mislynch" to play with??

---

Anyway, on to RBD's next target, YOLO:

• Day One: Likes 'the aggression' of the thread after missing the first two days/three pages of posting. Spends a lot of time in questions mode, but joins the discredit-
  Flay
  -as-VI wagon implicitly.
  
• Finally votes after almost two weeks (2/22-3/5), putting a single vote on HD while
  jeromus
  has been run up to L-1. He had no real reasons though, so basically it just looks like distancing to me. When asked he said "I see no content " from a new replacement. But in the very same post, he jumps ship to
  ArcAngel
  (2nd vote), while still saying he wants to lynch HD. ArcAngel gets lynched in about two more pages.
  
• Day Two: Again misses the first several days of the Day, though he did apparently get replaced in other games for similar lack of activity.
  (he discloses this so don't modkill me for ongoing games, 10506670)
  
  
• He's still talking to HD first out of the gate, but his read has "improved" and he "like
  your town/scum lists and vote agression".
  
• More interestingly, he complains about the NK analysis. Not the weird kill, just the analysis, mostly by RBD and myself. in fact he doesn't mention the
  BY/FT
  kill at all.
  
• After YANP (yet another prod), YOLO reacts to the Dayvig claim from
  Elyse
  by...not reacting?
  
• Jeromus gets shot - YOLO finally launches into something approximating gameplay and analyzes the wagons. He ends up on
  qwints
  , though, who he hasn't really mentioned before. He discards
  Desperado
  and HD as pro-town, and
  KBW
  as a VI. He does use a oddly specific [L-2 jeromus] Vote Count to get that list though, since the [L-1 jeromus] count from Day One would have also included RBD and
  Elyse
  .
  
• He then disappears again until the
  KBW
  quicklynch.
  
• Day Three (LYLO): He comes out the gate fast this time, with a three man scumteam of
  qwints
  /
  Desperado
  /HD, again based mostly on VCA. He says that Desperado should be the first lynch, but even in LyLo he's pushing qwints pretty hard here. Smells like somebody got a Rolecop N2 to me.
  
• After the massclaim finishes, he votes
  Desperado
  , but is 'surprised' no one is going after HD more. WTF? Anyway, the inevitable lynch occurs.
  
• Day Four: Late on the scene again, but still going for HD even though RBD was the first to vote. Basically calls out anybody but
  Elyse
  .

[Mr. Flay]

flay stop making me doubt myself its annoying

can we do yolo instead of rbd though? im basically sure hes scum, and i dont think im sold on rbd

See, I'm exactly the opposite. I'm sold on RBD but yolo could be just a flake (which would leave me arguing with youscum?) Got anything besides PoE to argue for yoloscum?

I want to give them each a chance to respond one more time before I vote. RBD's total lack of response to my case is

weird

.

[Mr. Flay]

Hammer RBD, Flay.

Quoi? I said I want to hear from him.

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry, was on my phone earlier.

If you flip town then yes, YOLO tomorrow. If you flip scum, YOLO tomorrow, actually. HD not instahammering lowered his chances of being scum considerably in my eyes.

[Mr. Flay]

And yet, if Elyse had held her shot until the Cop claim and shot Desperado, we'd have been in a WORLD of pain. It's a swingy setup but by no means unwinnable for Town. We left you alive specifically because you were more focused on balance/theory than scumhunting (and yes, to give the Experienced Scum some cover... it just happened to be me, not you). Your rushvote in LyLo (again, based on theory that really wasn't that good/obvious) is what made it easy for me to build a case. Holding your vote, I'd have had much less to work with.

Also, did Flay really pass up an opportunity to hammer and win?

Yup, but not without reason. AS RBD says the setup doesn't look very balanced, so I was worried Elyse was actually a multishot Vig or a DaySK or something weird. Thus I didn't want to give her reason to off me explicitly. I was going to hammer when I got home and 'read the thread' one more time.