Mini 1452 - Inevitable Mafia (Game Over)

[Hoopla]

hi

we're not lynching cooldog, dclxvi or radiantcowbells. they're all town.

we're not having dclxvi claim a partner, but we are massclaiming tomorrow. it's very likely that at least half of our power is exposed, so by massclaiming tomorrow, we narrow the pool and can make assessments on balance, lock scum into a fakeclaim early in the game (if they're ballsy enough to claim a PR), and then have multiple mislynches up our sleeve to sort out the mess.

we don't have time to do all that today, so we do it tomorrow. this also has the added value of forcing scum to NK one radiantcowbells/dcl tonight or else risk being poe'd tomorrow and in future days. i've made that problem as scum before, leaving scummy looking pr's alive on N1 and N2 only for it to backfire and be poe'd later in the game. this isn't a bad situation to be in. scum should sort out some of our pr problems tonight, and that is much better than gambling a lynch on them - we're forcing scum's hand while maintaining an extra lynch.

today we're lynching someone off the original dclxvi wagon in order to preserve the hidden mason and not accidentally expose it through our next lynch target today. ideally we want to keep scum's nk choice between dcl and radiantcowbells. i also believe radiant should vig someone tonight to prove his ability and make it easier for us tomorrow - again, preferably someone on the original dcl wagon so we don't accidentally lose the other mason.

VOTE: TMTOLBT

my pick for today

[Hoopla]

a lot of really bad play concerning the fallout to dcl's claim. i especially expected better from roflcopter and gorckat. it's really obvious to me that dcl's claim is true. i don't think he's savvy enough to setup a breadcrumb like that - if you are, why not breadcrumb a different role? it's not particularly functional to plan for a mason fakeclaim, because the only time it's really of any value is deep enough in the game where the town can't risk the game on you, and even that requires claiming a buddy. why then claim it d1? he doesn't have the balls to do that as scum.

have any of you ever seen a mason fakeclaim on d1 (other than friends & enemies)? i haven't. but i've seen a billion mason claims though. ask yourself what is more likely: dcl is committing a ballsy fakeclaim that has little to no chance of surviving deep in the game, or we run up a mason? everything points to the latter. the way people are making plans on an even chance of a fakeclaim/trueclaim is insane - they shouldn't be treated with equal weight. one is a lot more likelier than the other.

due to kitoari's mod meta, i believe the nature of radiantcowbell's unusual role. someone linked to the statistician he put in a 10p normal game. he's also designed multirole mafia that was a variable open setup. both these games, especially the multirole open kinda paint the picture that he'd be attracted to a role like a JOAT. seems pretty kitoari-like.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, why do you think Cooldog is town, and why do you think TMT is scum?

My cooldog read mostly stems from my town read on DCL. His over-the-top bullying of DCL, wanting him lynched and to claim his partner etc. seems way too out there for cooldog as scum. If he's scum, he knows DCL is true, and I expect him to be a little more subdued and take a more nuanced stance. He's not dumb - he knows how it would look if he got DCL-mason lynched on D1.

He could be playing one level above that, trying to play on meta that it would be too obvious to do that as scum, but that requires sitting back and analysing the situation and then faking that reaction. A much more instinctive reaction as scum is a nuanced/reasoned response, rather than going gung-ho at a mason. I think if Cooldog-scum was going to take an overt stance on the issue as scum, I think it's likelier he'd go in the other direction and clear him fully, rather than attacking him.

To me, it makes more sense for his paranoia and suspicion to come from uncertainty, and not really weighing up DCL's claim properly. Like I said before, people appear to be giving equal weight to DCL being a mason and the "what if he's lying" scenario - I see Cooldog's posts stemming from that.

~~

TMTOLBTWNTOF, RadiantCowbells, ThAdmiral, gorckat, Rob13, Cooldog

Here's the DCL wagon. We know the mason is not amongst those players.

Amongst the chaos, ThAdmiral has been a voice of reason, albeit not asserting himself. I don't favour a lynch or vig on him. RadiantCowbells needs to prove his power tonight, and I think Cooldog is town.

The lynch/vig should be amongst TMT, gorckat and Rob13. I chose TMT first up since I kinda trust Rob (his schizophrenic vote-hopping seems town for some reason, but I freely admit I haven't read him close enough yet) and gorckat didn't appear too scummy. When I look at TMT's response to the mason claim;

I'm not sure about this, but I don't like that mason claim, partly because masons were discussed earlier in the game...

Should we get the other mason to confirm?

This sort of posts fits with the template I expect scum to operate from re: a mason claim. Wishy-wishy stance one way or another, and then deferring to others to decide what to do. In situations like this, scum don't often make super polarizing stances (like Cooldog) - they tend to keep their options open and see how the town reacts.

I don't have strong enough feelings on gorckat and Rob to tell Radiant who to vig, but I'd prefer he picked from those two rather than bringing Cooldog and ThAdmiral into the mix too.

[Hoopla]

You have to shoot tonight.

[Hoopla]

You're willing to see how that statement is scum, but you're not willing to see how that statement is noob town? I know I'm playing the noob card, but I'm new to forum mafia and I have never played with masons before.

Honestly, it could be. I'm slightly wavering on your alignment, although not for this reason. A more compelling reason for you being town, is the makeup of your early wagon - it had a lot of neutral/null people on it (in my eyes), and there's a good chance at least one of them is scum, making it slightly more difficult for you to be scum.

But like someone else said (gorckat), it's almost getting to a point where we just need to get a lynch sorted. I think right now, I've probably shifted my opinion to gorckat being a better lynch, but I think it's too late, and you're good enough. Sorry (if you're town).

~~

Radiant:

Read Rob's #451. It seems really town to me. Vig gorckat.

[Hoopla]

unvote, vote: yates

it is also not too late for everyone to switch to yates

nope. we're not doing this.

i have him null-leaning scum, but he's in the possible hidden mason pile. we're still lynching/vigging off the original DCL wagon. we can sort everyone else out tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

Gorckat is my strongest townread in the game. Further, how does 451 look town to you at ALL?

I've been reading him as town since I replaced in. On that post specifically, "final thoughts" posts usually seem pretty town to me, especially when it's as comprehensive as his was. His reads also match up well with my thoughts on the game, which isn't always perfect, but usually makes me more trusting given we're seeing the same things (or he isn't at least completely off on a different plane of thought).

It's beyond me how gorckat is your strongest townread. He's done jack to save the claimed mason, and hasn't posted too many critical things about the topic, when usually he's pretty insightful. His votes have been pretty lazy overall. Why do you have him as town, and not only that, but your strongest town read?

[Hoopla]

Deadline is soon. Everyone pick between Cooldog or TMT ASAP. They're the only viable wagons with enough actual support.

(there is only one right answer here)

[Hoopla]

explain...

[Hoopla]

i wouldn't have gone to the effort of derailing the cooldog and DCL wagons if that were the case. i'm strongarming the town because they were almost too stupid to lynch a mason and/or force its buddy to claim.

[Hoopla]

nthing waiting to see what radiant has to say

[Hoopla]

5) Mafia no-killed for wifom reasons
6) You're mafia

just to be conclusive.

I'm going to go way out on a limb here and suggest that number four is the most likely one, and me the most likely one to have been docced.

no you weren't, silly

[Hoopla]

i don't think you're in a position to call the shots here given how you've played so far.

i need to think about this.

[Hoopla]

You need to think about this? Well for fucking starters he could have copped DCL instead of killing someone n1. Naturally we tell him what to do. What is there to think about? This guy belongs in EM games where he is told what to do. I don't think he knows how to play the game.

what i'm thinking about is whether a full massclaim is optimal.

right now, i think the best play is massclaim minus the second mason, then assess the situation based on balance and other role claims. then once that has been done, we decide whether or not we want the second mason to claim - i'm not going to go into detail about what situations would or wouldn't be good times for the second mason to claim or not claim because there are a lot of variables, but i can think of a couple situations either way.

so, i think we should massclaim minus the second mason - whoever that mason is, if indeed it exists, should claim VT, everyone else claims as normal in order.

RadiantCowbells - JOAT
DCLXVI - Mason
CoolDog - VT

My proposed claim order for the rest:

Yates
gorckat
roflcopter
nhammen
jmo16mla
BROseidon
ThAdmiral

If people agree with that rough list (and the second mason not claiming), then you can all say where you want me to claim in that order.

[Hoopla]

fine by me

[Hoopla]

I'm also a VT.

[Hoopla]

Hey, am here. Catching up soon.

[Hoopla]

What the hell is going on here...

Yates, if you fakeclaimed VT as Cop, why would you bother posting something like this:

I am VT.

[on the off chance there is a LD role]

That doesn't make any sense. You're dying today. If you're really the Cop, I'm nominating you for an anti-scummy for worst PR play ever. Why didn't you claim when massclaim was happening? That was the point of massclaim, so we could assess things from the full perspective. But you selfishly deprived the town of this for whatever reason.

[Hoopla]

On the off chance Yates is truthful, then I believe Radiant is scum. There's no way the town has two roles that can investigate alignment (as well as masons).

[Hoopla]

what.

why are you doing this?

[Hoopla]

So why kill him? We know he is scum. Why not use his knowledge to our advantage?

what

[Hoopla]

that doesn't make sense.

[Hoopla]

how does he know what stopped a possible NK? and even if he does, how are you expecting to weasel that information out of someone who has compulsively lied all day today. i also don't get the nhammen/roflcopter connection.

[Hoopla]

and remember (in case i'm gone) to lynch hoopla tomorrow

why?

[Hoopla]

the latter is the reason why the former didn't happen

you didn't like my plan? too bad. it was the right play

[Hoopla]

yeah, that'll be proven wrong when the lynch you prevented me from accomplishing yesterday flips scum today

he could easily have been a mason. that was more important. you're just being results oriented.

[Hoopla]

you're just being scum. there are probably zero scum on that dcl wagon you picked to make your narrowed pool out of. that's why i hated the idea in the first place.

you did fuck all on day one, so you don't get to take the moral highground. i'm pretty much done with this argument, so i'm going to defer to my original response that still applies here. peace.

the people i'm suspicious of are all in your "we're arbitrarily not lynching (or vigging) these people" pool, which makes me suspicious of you trying to strongarm the town into not lynching them.

i wouldn't have gone to the effort of derailing the cooldog and DCL wagons if that were the case. i'm strongarming the town because they were almost too stupid to lynch a mason and/or force its buddy to claim.

[Hoopla]

don't go acting all pissed off about it, this is a game. you're right, i did fuck all day one, i've done fuck all today, that doesn't mean i'm wrong

it does actually, because i know you are. respond to my post 485 if you want to have an actual discussion.

[Hoopla]

I have a really good thread for you to go and read, Yates. Seriously, you should know better.

Yesterday has messed with my head, but I'm inclined to side with BROseidon here. Gorckat is a pretty solid lynch, but I'll be wanting to read up before I commit to anything.

[Hoopla]

AFTER RC claims whether he got a guilty result last night (RC should claim either "I got a guilty" or "I am not claiming an action").

Disagree with this. An innocent is just as valuable at this stage of the game. We need to engage PoE asap.

RadiantCowbells should claim his action regardless.

[Hoopla]

It's also thanks to Hoopla that my vig shot was completely wasted.

what the fuck are you on about. you're the one that went against my desires and decided to shoot rob13 who was obvtown.

[Hoopla]

nhammen isn't a bad wagon. He's definitely been flying under the radar.

Also, I thought of something that might be able to confirm me as town tomorrow, or at least pseudo-confirm me. Someone remind me about this tomorrow if I'm around.

[Hoopla]

Cooldog, why do you favour a Hoopla lynch over a Nhammen lynch?

Gut... mostly.

Also note how we don't see much of hoopla nowadays. Try to fall under the radar??? hmmm.

General apathy.

I'll try and make an effort soon.

[Hoopla]

Also, I thought of something that might be able to confirm me as town tomorrow, or at least pseudo-confirm me. Someone remind me about this tomorrow if I'm around.

Well, what I was hoping to happen last night didn't happen. It makes no sense for scum to

not

shoot radiant, as there isn't really a cost if he commutes (town doesn't gain an extra lynch), so you might as well attempt to shoot him in case he did save his investigation until tonight.

I was hoping by demonstrating this logic it would make me less likely to be scum in the event scum shot a VT instead, as that is by far the suboptimal play for scum on that night.

But that didn't happen, so, oh well. Scum was smart enough that night.

[Hoopla]

I'm fine with a mason claim today, so we don't enter a possible mylo situation tomorrow with a counterclaim.

Dunno who I really suspect any more. Haven't read the game at all in light of nhammen's flip.

[Hoopla]

Scum would have been daft to shoot at RC- they know which pool the mason is in and have odds to hit him or RCs investigation.

are you deliberately posting stupid things to make me think you wouldn't have done what scum did last night?

[Hoopla]

no counterclaim here.

feel slightly better about roflcopter given his apparent knowledge of who the mason was for so long, but at the same time, going after me before process-of-elimination kicks in wouldn't be a bad play on his behalf. have been pretty lackluster recently, so i understand getting lynched. pretty lame of me to say, but i find it hard to escape, particularly because i feel like my wagon is being pushed by scum.

i would choose gorckat next, personally. broseidon is playing well, but am kinda getting weird vibes from him.

[Hoopla]

thadmirals 827 seems pretty obviously townie to me to. i don't think he's the type to voluntarily dabble with wifom claims as scum, and the martyrdom angle he's trying to play (with himself going first vs gorkcat) is convincing.

[Hoopla]

i'm with gorc going after me which seems to be the consensus.

[Hoopla]

sorry hoopla i swear to god scum reading you made sense when i thought there were three scum

its ok little buddy

well down town. you did it!