Mini 1452 - Inevitable Mafia (Game Over)
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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What if he is scum? This option would be obvious to anyone who isn't scum.In post 40, DCLXVI wrote:
And what would that be? Unless they are masons together I can't see how gorkcat would know radiant is town.In post 35, jmo16mla wrote:Maybe they had something to go on?
vote: dcl
Apart from the above I don't like the way you are trying to manipulate rob in to voting for tmt.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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Ohai. we think alike. Lets be town together.In post 62, RadiantCowbells wrote:
I find it interesting that the first thing that comes to mind here for you is that Gorkcat could be mason and not that he could be scum; almost as if you already know he's not scum?And what would that be? Unless they are masons together I can't see how gorkcat would know radiant is town.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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I think it was particularly scummy that he was doing it before he had even voted tmt himself (he only voted after hassling you for a couple of posts). Furthermore he is using faulty logic - you are voting someone because of cognitive dissonance (which is a good tell btw), and he is trying to pigeonhole you into admitting "yes I found tmt scummy, so I must vote him over anyone else".In post 65, Rob14 wrote:
This kind of voices the reason behind the vague unease I've had over DCL's posts that I couldn't put my finger on. Do you think this is scummy, ThAd, or just someone arguing their viewpoint? I'm not entirely convinced on the answer to that question yet, so I still prefer my JMO vote.In post 63, ThAdmiral wrote:Apart from the above I don't like the way you are trying to manipulate rob in to voting for tmt.
I'm not sure whether his angle is to protect jmo or attack tmt but either way something about it is off.
Because he's not saying "I disagree with you" or asking him to clarify, he's saying "here's why you should be voting tmt based on your own logic", meanwhile the "logic" he is using is a twisted interpretation of what rob said.In post 66, BROseidon wrote:
What makes you think this is manipulation and not just not properly comprehending Rob's argument?In post 63, ThAdmiral wrote:Apart from the above I don't like the way you are trying to manipulate rob in to voting for tmt.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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Personally I'd prefer lynch -0.
Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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No rob.In post 138, Rob14 wrote:There is one person who can confirm you're a mason, and I want their name.
If you're a mason, there's no reason NOT to give the name, because having two masons out is no worse than having one mason out, because one dead mason means the other is essentially a VT. It just gives us a confirmed townie after one of you die.
If you're scum claiming mason, you either have to give us a scum-partner (which would be very beneficial to town in the later game, as any one who vouches for a lying mason that's found to be lying later is also scum) OR you have to give up the game if you don't want to hand us your scum-partner on a silver platter.
So there's no reason for you not to name the other mason. Go for it.
unvote
Because if the masons aren't idiots they will crumb each others names SUBTLY and when the other mason/s chooses to claim later in the game it will be verifiable.In post 140, Rob14 wrote:One mason is already out. If DCL isn't scum, then the mason team can already be "taken out" by killing the one mason already revealed. What good is a single mason? They're just a VT.
Give me one good reason NOT to reveal the other "mason," especially when you consider that if DCL is scum, he'd be forced into a position to be lynched or hand us a scum-partner as his "mason-buddy" to keep alive.
Will have to reread to see who I think is scum now.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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What do you mean "no down side if he's town"?In post 190, Rob14 wrote:I still think DCL should reveal the name of his partner. No down side if he's town, major up side if he's scum. Right now, I'm focusing on Radiant atm, though.
Why don't we all just mass claim then?Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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Do you know what breadcrumbing is?In post 198, Rob14 wrote:DCL, if he's a town mason, is dead tonight or possibly the next night, agreed?
Alright, if we accept that, then his partner is just a VT. I'd rather that VT turn into a 100% no WIFOM confirmed townie - an innocent child, if you will - upon DCL's death and flip.
So no, I see no downside in this specific situation.
This basically.In post 202, BROseidon wrote:1) Makes it easier for scum to try to weed out other power roles early. Scum can get a mason N1 if they want either way at this point, but if they want to get a stronger PR, not having the second mason claim results in there being a chance that they would still hit a mason.
2) Makes it easier for scum to target masons once masons become a threat. Masons are stronger as the game progresses, because conftown becomes scarier when there are fewer players; scum have fewer players to set up mislynches against. Thus, at a certain point scum do want masons gone, and having the second mason known makes it more likely for this to occur should they not accidentally hit him early.
Tl;dr giving scum more control over when they get the masons killed is bad.
Yes there is, what are you fucking talking about?!?In post 203, CooLDoG wrote:But regardless of all of this, we have to lynch dcl today, no matter what. There is no real way around it.
My god, thank you.
No he won't. Sadly for you there are too many people that aren't going full retard in this game for that to happen.In post 236, RadiantCowbells wrote: DCL, if you don't claim a partner, you will get lynched today.
Qould scum be so bold as to so openly ask for dcl to claim his partner? That sounds like a wifom trap I don't want to get in to.
vote: cooldogDon't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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This is actually slightly misrepresentative.In post 243, Does Bo Know wrote:Like the guy's vote has been on DCL because DCL was subtly pushing a lynch on TMT, even though DCL is very clearly claiming TMT is scummy and voting him.
He voted dcl in the rvs stage and never moved his vote off. In fact he seemed unsure of the case on dcl and it was his interpretation of other peoples arguments that dcl was subtly pushing him, rather than his own case.
He seems a bit lurky, a bit inexperienced. Not lynch worthy yet for me.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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Don't be an idiot.In post 277, RadiantCowbells wrote:I figure I'll just selfvote this, because there is no coherent argument that I am scum yet four idiots are on my wagon.
I have no desire to play with a town this bad, so I'll just lynch myself to confirm myself and leave you guys with strategy.
If we have anyone else with vig powers, shoot DCLXVI tonight. He's scum.
Lynch DCL if he's not already dead, then kill Rob.
Feel free to do whatever you guys want following that.
VOTE: RadiantCowbells
I mean if you really don't care just vote who I am telling you to vote - cooldog.
do it.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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as dcl said claim is barely believable, but provable so radiant lives for now.
Rofl why ask for mason claim? I actually don't know what game some of you are playing.
Cooldog lynch is good. I've recently been having second thoughts on rob - my gut is telling me he's scum.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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you might be right. at the same time, it genuinely looked like dcl may still have been getting lynched after the mason claim, and once cooldog committed to it, it may have seemed the lesser of two evils to stick with it (especially since support for it remained) than flip-flopping on the issue. I tend to agree that mafia wouldn't likely be as obvious about it, but I actually think it would be great play to attack so overtly.In post 444, Hoopla wrote:
My cooldog read mostly stems from my town read on DCL. His over-the-top bullying of DCL, wanting him lynched and to claim his partner etc. seems way too out there for cooldog as scum. If he's scum, he knows DCL is true, and I expect him to be a little more subdued and take a more nuanced stance. He's not dumb - he knows how it would look if he got DCL-mason lynched on D1.In post 443, RadiantCowbells wrote:Hoopla, why do you think Cooldog is town, and why do you think TMT is scum?
He could be playing one level above that, trying to play on meta that it would be too obvious to do that as scum, but that requires sitting back and analysing the situation and then faking that reaction. A much more instinctive reaction as scum is a nuanced/reasoned response, rather than going gung-ho at a mason. I think if Cooldog-scum was going to take an overt stance on the issue as scum, I think it's likelier he'd go in the other direction and clear him fully, rather than attacking him.
Anyway I get the sinking feeling tmt is indeed town. I doubt there is much time to do anything about it now though.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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Wait, I was against lynching the mason. And so were you to my memory?In post 490, gorckat wrote:Left from the 'lynch the mason club' are myself, cooldog and thad. Of those, Thad gives me the most heebies.
There's been so many replace-outs I'm confused who's who now.
As far as the kills go radiant said she was killing rob so either mafia was blocked from killing or she is mafia.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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Yeah. Just musing I guess.In post 551, DCLXVI wrote:Was there a point to that last post...cause you basically answered your own question.
Lets put it this way: if rofl claims pr, radiantbells looks worse. If rofl claims vt, radiantbells is basically confirmed.
edit: and rofl claims vt.
I can't really argue with you about your wagon based poe as well, since its how I like to scumhunt often. Obviously we will come to different conclusions, since I know I am town. Looking at the wagon:
dcl:tmt,radiant,thad, gorck,rob, cooldog
was the first -1 wagon
then after I got off after the claim radiant jumped back on and it looked like:
dcl:tmt, gorck,rob, cooldog,radiant
Furthermore the lynch wagon on tmt was:
tmt: broseidon, jmo, yates, hoopla,dcl, gorckat,rob
The last one is harder to read, but it seems pretty clear to me that there is scum among gorckat and cooldog, and at least one in bro/jmo/yates/hoop.
vote: cooldog
why is he suddenly getting a free pass?Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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I think they might both be scum, but I think cool is scummier.In post 601, Yates wrote:Why are you both giving gorck a free pass? DCL claims he has gorck as a slight Town read but hasn't stated why...
Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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Having reread him cooldogs frustration does come across as genuine.
I think there are probably better lynches today than nhammen who hasn't jumped out at me as scum, then again scum are probably in the "haven't jumped out at me as scum" pile, so I'm torn on this. Would still prefer to lynch gorckat, but I will have a look back at some of the other wagons that formed in this game to see if I can figure anything out.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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These are all the wagons of 4 or more from the mods posts:
TMTOLBTWNTOF- Does Bo Know,DCLXVI, BROseidon, jmo16mla
DLCXVI-TMTOLBTWNTOF,RadiantCowbells,ThAdmiral, gorckat
DLCXVI-TMTOLBTWNTOF, gorckat,Rob13, CooLDoG,RadiantCowbells
TMTOLBTWNTOF-DCLXVI, BROseidon, jmo16mla,Yates
RadiantCowbells-Rob13, nhammen,TMTOLBTWNTOF,RadiantCowbells,
CooLDoG -ThAdmiral, Does Bo Know, Broseidon,Rob13,DCLXVI, nhammen
CooLDoG -ThAdmiral,DCLXVI, nhammen, gorckat,RadiantCowbells
TMTOLBTWNTOF- BROseidon, jmo16mla,Yates, Hoopla,DCLXVI, gorckat,Rob13
Yates- Broseidon, roflcopter, nhammen, CooLDoG, gorckat,RadiantCowbells
Analysis
Firstly it is highly doubtful the scumteam is hoopla(does bo know), bro and jmo for the simple fact that I doubt they would all be on the same tmt wagon so early in the game together.
Given that I am reading cooldog as town now gorckat looks bad because of the dcl wagon. The case on him, at the time, seemed fairly decent and it makes sense that at least one scum would be on it.
Nhammen and gorckat were also on the cooldog wagon when it was on 5, similarly it makes sense if at least one of them were scum.
Broseidon is one that hadn't really pinged my scumdar much this game, but looking at the voting history there is evidence to suggest he deserves further scrutiny. He was on the early tmt wagon with the only other unknown being jmo for much of the time. Furthermore he was on the cooldog wagon, being one unknown out of hoopla(does bo know), nhammen and himself, before getting back on the tmt wagon for its lynch. Finally he was also on the yates lynch. I don't really blame the people on the yates lynch, due to how he was acting it was inevitable he was going to be lynched. That being said I don't like posts like this:
Anyway if I had to guess now the scumteam would be:In post 674, BROseidon wrote:Can we just get a flip so that all this fucking WIFOM can stop. I don't have the energy for this shit.
gorck, bro and one of hoopla/jmoDon't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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My case is that there is likely scum on the wagon. I don't think cooldog is scum because reading over his posts his frustration at town failing seems genuine.In post 757, gorckat wrote:What's your case, Thad?
You flipped from seeing Cooldog being smart scum pushing the mason lynch to a re-read of him as town when there was no traction for a lynch on him.
You're defaulting to 'scum must have been on that wagon' after saying you would only lynch me or Cooldog.
Your 727 says that one of nhammen or I are likely scum for our positions on the DCL wagon, but you fail to include him as an option in your possible scum team.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
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I'd argue against the nhammen wagon but I don't really have any "evidence" to say he's not scum, I just really don't think he is.
The reluctance for someone to hammer could indicate there are already multiple scum on the wagon, or alternatively that scum are hesitant hammer and look bad as a result, and so are waiting for a town to hammer.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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Wp team siren.In post 784, RadiantCowbells wrote:LOL baited and outsmarted
I got an inno on CoolDog and commuted last night.
Mason should go ahead and claim today so they don't get CCed.
VOTE: Hoopla
Well I was wrong about nhammen but it looks like I was right about cooldog. I guess I'll have another look at the Wahl s with the new flip, but I'm even more sure now that gork is scum.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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I know this is wifom, but I would have wagonned the fuck out of nhammen if I was scum.In post 815, gorckat wrote:Thad's general reluctance on nhammen has me stumped.
He's experienced, so I doubt he'd outright say he preferred a Hoops over nhammen lynch while it was building steam if they were buddies and Hoops is town. If all three of them are scum, then it'd be kind of smart because there is 'no way' experienced scum would tie them all up in a lazy defense bundle like that.
I can read him as town hesitant to be wrong, however, which fits my earlier thought about no scum on DCL.
nhammen's late 'one of gorc/thad is scum' could be read as distancing (thad-scum) or set up at least one bad lynch (if thad is town).
true story.
You know what, in all honesty it is probably best to lynch from me/gork even if it is me. I'm that confident that gork is scum I'm happy to go 1 for 1 with him. One of us has to be lynched sooner or later as there is always going to be that question mark on us, it might as well be now.In post 824, roflcopter wrote:also i am pretty ready to call it on admiral scum / gorc town but i'm egotistical and want to lynch hoopla first to prove myself right all alongDon't ask me to provide self meta-
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Updated with jmo-mason, nhammen-scum, cooldog-town and the nhammen lynch added:
TMTOLBTWNTOF- Does Bo Know,DCLXVI, BROseidon,jmo16mla
DLCXVI-TMTOLBTWNTOF,RadiantCowbells,ThAdmiral, gorckat
DLCXVI-TMTOLBTWNTOF, gorckat,Rob13,CooLDoG,RadiantCowbells
TMTOLBTWNTOF-DCLXVI, BROseidon,jmo16mla,Yates
RadiantCowbells-Rob13,nhammen,TMTOLBTWNTOF,RadiantCowbells,
CooLDoG-ThAdmiral, Does Bo Know, Broseidon,Rob13,DCLXVI,nhammen
CooLDoG-ThAdmiral,DCLXVI,nhammen, gorckat,RadiantCowbells
TMTOLBTWNTOF- BROseidon,jmo16mla,Yates, Hoopla,DCLXVI, gorckat,Rob13
Yates- Broseidon, roflcopter,nhammen,CooLDoG, gorckat,RadiantCowbells
nhammen- Broseidon, roflcopter, RadiantCowbells, gorckat,CooLDoGDon't ask me to provide self meta-
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Not to bring up my own meta and by doing so invalidate it or anything, but I totally do this as town all the time.In post 865, Hoopla wrote:thadmirals 827 seems pretty obviously townie to me to. i don't think he's the type to voluntarily dabble with wifom claims as scum, and the martyrdom angle he's trying to play (with himself going first vs gorkcat) is convincing.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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Btw if we are wrong about hoop we have 1 more mislynch until lylo by my count.
Currently 9 players, 2 scum (assuming 3 total). If hoop is town it will be 7-2 tomorrow. If we mislynch again it will be 5-2 the day after.
So we have 3 more lynches (including today) to find the next scum. That actually makes me pretty confident. If we go hoop, then me/gork tomorrow I am pretty sure we will win.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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Fuck that's wrong because yates is dead yet is still on the "alive players" list.
MOOOOOOOOOOODDDDD!!!!!
(although I could have just read the recent vote count.....)
Yeah so its 8 alive today, meaning if we mislynch it will be 6 alive tomorrow which would be lylo. Which isn't as good.
Still - hoopla then gork and I am still very confident. One of them basically has to be scum. If they aren't I will never trust vote count analysis again. MARK MY WORDS!Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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It's just...please don't do it. There's no need, and it sets me on edge, lol.In post 911, RadiantCowbells wrote:
VOTE: Unvoteradiant what the fuck are you doing - unvote yourself.
If you want to lynch me go bro tomorrow, then probably gorckat. But I'd prefer gork/bro today.
Actually no if we mislynch we lose now right?
Yeah don't lynch me first.
Relax, guys. If there are 3 scum now then that means there were 4 scum from d1 and all the town power we had was a JOAT and two masons.
Not. bloody. likely.
I'm even wondering if you're intentionally dumbtelling.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
Updated with hoopla lynch
TMTOLBTWNTOF-Does Bo Know,DCLXVI, BROseidon,jmo16mla
DLCXVI-TMTOLBTWNTOF,RadiantCowbells,ThAdmiral, gorckat
DLCXVI-TMTOLBTWNTOF, gorckat,Rob13,CooLDoG,RadiantCowbells
TMTOLBTWNTOF-DCLXVI, BROseidon,jmo16mla,Yates
RadiantCowbells-Rob13,nhammen,TMTOLBTWNTOF,RadiantCowbells,
CooLDoG-ThAdmiral,Does Bo Know, Broseidon,Rob13,DCLXVI,nhammen
CooLDoG-ThAdmiral,DCLXVI,nhammen, gorckat,RadiantCowbells
TMTOLBTWNTOF- BROseidon,jmo16mla,Yates,Hoopla,DCLXVI, gorckat,Rob13
Yates- Broseidon, roflcopter,nhammen,CooLDoG, gorckat,RadiantCowbells
nhammen- Broseidon, roflcopter,RadiantCowbells, gorckat,CooLDoG
Hoopla- roftcopter, gorckat, Broseidon,CooLDoG,RadiantCowbells
Analysis:
ok so basically if you somehow think the scumteam is me/rofl then you are saying that the tmt wagons and the early dcl wagon wereentirely town. I guess itspossiblethat rofl is scum, but from where I'm sitting it is much more likely that the scums are bro and gork.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
given that cooldog is town, and that radiant is town, if bro was town scum-rofl would have hammered. So what we know is that any scenario in which bro is town and rofl is scum is false. Also from my perspective they can't both be town because then the scum team would be me-gork, which I know is false. Therefore in any given scenario bro is scum, which is good since it means town will lynch correctly today.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
@ rc: any day for the last few days I would have happily lynched gork. But I'm thinking its rofl/bro now. In any case I know that bro is scum based on poe, so I really can't accept any other lynch today.
Basically from where you are sitting you should also choose from me and bro, because one of us has to be scum and the other town. We can decide about rofl/gork tomorrow.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
I refuse to believe the only town Pr is "masons". And I'd have CD as town without the inno.In post 1013, BROseidon wrote:ThAd, why are you so certain that RC is telling the truth and CD is not the godfather?Don't ask me to provide self meta-
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ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills