Mini Normal 1460 - Normalville Mafia (GAME OVER)

[Shamrock]

Argh I thought deadline was pushed back, I haven't finished reading yet.

[Shamrock]

Someone explain to me why we are massclaiming.

[Shamrock]

Well why are you claiming if there's no reason to claim?

[Shamrock]

Good, that makes sense.

I'm going to try to finish reading this game today (I'm up to early D2).

[Shamrock]

I've finished reading the game.

Coming off the read, without having delved into ISOs or read anything more than once, I want to lynch Red Dragon('s slot), Ztife, lucky2u, and Miss Stranger, preferably in that order, although the order might shift as I look back through some ISOs as I will in a bit.

We are definitely mass claiming today.

Miller JOAT is a hilarious role and I applaud the mod for having the balls to put it into a Normal.

More coming in a moment, please hold...

[Shamrock]

On further consideration, I'm actually going to put off an in-depth look at Red Dragon until he gets replaced, partly because his ISO is long and gives me a headache and partly because I'm wondering if my scumread on him is because he annoys me and I want to see if the replacement changes my impressions of the slot.

Let's look at Ztife instead.

One of the trends that bothers me most about Ztife's ISO is that she seems to comment very heavily/strongly on objective things and either ignore or be wishy-washy on more subjective things. What do I mean by this?

Consider the first thing that Ztife chooses to comment on this game: BP's arguments for no-lynch. In #161, Ztife attacks BP's arguments for no-lynching as incorrect and anti-town, which they are.

In the process of all this she completely ignores the ongoing Future wagon, which had picked up considerable strength at this point. When pressed on it, she is wishy-washy and nonscummmittal:

Don't really have any reads on future tbh since it looks like mostly semi-serious posting in RVS. Seems to be over-reacting though with the case from Grim, but I can't really read anything.

TBH, I'm finding it hard to get into this game, mainly with the lack of pressure on BP and the tunneling (or the tunneling awhile back) of Future.

What I see in this interaction is Ztife being uncomfortable with being forced to give a definite opinion on the important goings-on (the Future wagon) and choosing to latch onto something less relevant but on which she can't possibly be challenged (no-lynching being bad). I think this unwillingness to commit to a position on which she might be challenged is considerably more likely to come from scum than town.

Elsewhere in her ISO, there is a lot of wishy-washiness, a lot of promises of analysis with no follow-through, and no followable thread of reasoning in her reads. BP is still her "highest scumread" as of #461, but she shows no interest in engaging with him after the early-game argument and pays no attention at all to Miss Stranger when she replaces him (actually there are no mentions at all of Miss Stranger in Ztife's ISO). She joins the Peregrine wagon with no reasoning, then leaves it after his claim for equally no reason.

Actually, her reactions to the claims in general are really quite horrendous. When Sunny claims, she calls it "incredibly ambiguous" in #371 without taking a side. When Elyse claims, her reaction is not to consider the plausibility of the claim but to ask in #838 why she claimed at L-2. When PV claims, she is first noncommittal (#971: "I just can't get anything of what he says into my head") and then, after Grimgroove calls the claim convincing, suddenly she feels the same way too (#976).

It's hard for me to see how Ztife could be town.

[Shamrock]

Sometimes showing is more effective than telling, so I present to you

Ztife being scum: a slideshow

@Grim
Ok, I see. I admit I haven't take much of a closer look at alot of posts yet, but

atm the only thing that interest me is BP.

What do you think of his hesitation then? It was not so much of an NL, but more of the lack of explaination for his own push and then the wavering opinions about it.

@PeregrineV
Please explain your BP town read.

Gonna be catching up on this future wagon

now.

Don't really have any reads on future tbh

since it looks like mostly semi-serious posting in RVS. Seems to be over-reacting though with the case from Grim, but I can't really read anything..

Personally I wasn't so comfortable with Slandaar putting future at L-1 so quickly after nacho's vote. It may be nothing but if future flips town....

This.

Then again, I never quite gotten understanding slandaar and his voting and explainations in a couple of games anyway.

thegooner obviously will be needing a replacement.

While we wait:

VOTE: Nachomamma8

Not agreeing with this.

ATM still seems pretty null to me.

I think sunny's claim is incredibly ambiguous as well

, but im more inclined to look at how the wagon is falling apart.
There's no deadline yet, so wait for gooner's slot to post.

5 days to deadline.
In the exchange between Elyse and Nacho,

nacho's case seems abstract, Elyse gives me an overrall more town feel.

Unvote, Vote: Nachomamma8

BP is still my highest scum read though,

I'll be happy to get this wagon if there's enough support.

As for RD, from the previous game I have been with him he seems to be the kind of player with such a "defeatist" playstyle. As such he reads town to me, although I don't agree with the self vote.

Quick reply here.

Therefore I can't think why Nacho would be this confident about elyse. Also,

scums don't usually start wagons

, and I think Nacho might be trying to fuck with our minds here, and therefore my gut says to get some pressure on this wagon.

I don't agree with this.

Scums don't usually start wagons because it draws attention. I do think nachom's case here is weak and it seems scummy tho.

@Grim
where's your reply reinforcing your shit case on me? Stop being around the bush with the "no more walls but I'm not replying anymore about the case but I still think Ztife is scum" crap.
#572 more "Im scum hunting and I'm confident of my reads but I don't offering anything else" fluff.
Reply to #516, explain how I would do these "lurking, tunneling on BP, opportunistic actions" as scum motivation and why would it stand out to you. Especially to players such as, Baezu.

Unvote, Vote: Baezu

Gonna post more later, but of the 2 im liking this one better.

Are millers common here? Haven't encountered one tbh.

Need to think abit about baezu's claim as well, but definitely looks fishy.

well, this game is literally dying in activity and content.

not that I have much to contribute.

At this point we're pretty much fucked if both baezu and elyze claim is true.

I still want to hear why elyze claimed, because otherwise I would just lynch her.

#952 looks really bad.

PV's post eludes me somehow. I just can't get anything of what he says into my head.

And last but not least, quite possible the worst single post in this entire game:

So the claims now are doc, cop, and JOAT?

Odd cop, x-shot JOAT, and probably x-shot doc.

PereV is town. That claim makes sense and is actually in good timing.
Bye lucky.

Unvote, Vote: Lucky2u

[Shamrock]

Who can say? I once played a game where a player spontaneously claimed Miller at the start of Day 2... as a Vanilla Townie.

I assume the idea behind claiming Doctor as Bodyguard is to scare scum away from high-value targets rather than having them go "eh, even if we don't get our target we'll still get a kill". Obviously, though, this isn't much use if your claim gets you lynched...

[Shamrock]

Actually, the above makes no sense because the scum would target him regardless.

I have no idea what he was thinking.

[Shamrock]

Sounds too easy? Maybe it is, but until shown otherwise I don't thinkwe should make it too difficult for ourselves.

I should have mentioned this, actually. I'm really uncomfortable with the fact that my three strongest scumreads are three of the weakest slots in the game, but right now I'm not sure what to do about it.

I have to look more closely at Stranger because I remember thinking BP was town but then I was reading Stranger as scum. I'll do this later.

[Shamrock]

Ztife, what are your scumreads and why?

[Shamrock]

Sunny/grim strikes me as a probable scum team, which is the only reason why I think both could be scum ATM.

What does this mean?

[Shamrock]

So what you're telling me is that your two strongest scumreads on Day 3 are based on associational tells that happened on Day 1 between unflipped players?

Seriously?

[Shamrock]

I am VT

[Shamrock]

this (doesn't seem to consider all the possibilities of behaviour from Elyse's POV, which I feel like Slandaar would likely do) as suggestive of scum.

What do you mean by this? What possibilities is he not considering? Why is this significant?

[Shamrock]

I am happy to vote Ztife whenever we finish claiming.

[Shamrock]

He also tried to faketowntell by asking me if I thought there is scum in the hood which obviously the answer is yes (as he knows) and my neighbours know.

Why do you think this?

[Shamrock]

Hey guys! Could someone tell me who is in need of rope? I have a few reads, but I still have some catching up to do.

For the lawls

VOTE: ztife

For the lawls? This looks like a bus. I'm gonna read through your iso and see if you're worth a vote. I want to listen to Slandaar, but I still can't be sure if he's town.

I really really really don't like this post at all. I have no idea why you would read lucky's post and immediately come to the conclusion that it is a bus. Could you explain?

[Shamrock]

"It looks like" is not the same thing as "it is". It's a possibility, and the fact his only reasoning was "For the lawls" bothers me. Also, his opening post for the day phase makes it seem like he's trying to fake being happy about the mafia death, followed by him immediately throwing suspicion onto someone else.

Why does it look like a bus to you? If you dislike the fact that he hammered without providing any reason, that's one thing. But what caused you to jump to the conclusion, based on that single post, that it was a bus?

[Shamrock]

@Slandaar - actually I was trying to ask why you thought one of the people in the neighborhood was scum.

[Shamrock]

Obviously it's strange, but you still haven't answered my question -- WHY does it look like a bus to you?

[Shamrock]

SM what is your role?

[Shamrock]

On further consideration, I'm actually going to put off an in-depth look at Red Dragon until he gets replaced, partly because his ISO is long and gives me a headache and partly because I'm wondering if my scumread on him is because he annoys me and I want to see if the replacement changes my impressions of the slot.

If anyone transitioned into the Ztife wagon randomly when the pressure was on and went full swing from there is was Shamrock. He even implied it was a temp push until he could look at CDB and then CDB replaced in and it never happened

I would want this or Slandaar lynched today. Slandaar's been leading the team around by the leash and hasn't ended up doing ANYTHING helpful for us. All he's done is make us massclaim and waste time arguing when people like Shamrock are MIA

I don't know what this is supposed to mean considering I replaced in and attacked Ztife at the beginning of the day. I haven't looked much at CDB because CDB hasn't done much of anything.

[Shamrock]

Reading some things -- mostly Ztife's ISO.

Firstly, as much as I dislike his posts today, StupdendousMan is extremely likely to be town. If you disagree, read #161 (and the posts that follow, but especially that one) and recall that SM replaced BP. If that's a bus it's the most bizarre and inexplicable bus I've ever seen and I really don't see how it meshes with the rest of Ztife's play.

(Grimgroove is also extremely likely to be town based on Ztife's posts, but there doesn't seem to be any debate about that anyway.)

The next thing that jumps out at me is that Ztife's ISO contains basically no mention at all of Red Dragon or of chernobylcitybus/lucky2u. The single mention of Red Dragon is... well, actually I'm not entirely sure what's going on here:

@Red Dragon
Heed this., Elyse"]
I think sunny's claim is incredibly ambiguous as well, but im more inclined to look at how the wagon is falling apart.
There's no deadline yet, so wait for gooner's slot to post.

He was, I guess, starting to address RD and then changed his mind? I don't know. None of this post seems to have anything to do with RD.

Chernobylcitybus is not mentioned in Ztife's posts even once (except in quoted posts where his replies are not talking about ccb) and here is the single mention of lucky:

So the claims now are doc, cop, and JOAT?

Odd cop, x-shot JOAT, and probably x-shot doc.

PereV is town. That claim makes sense and is actually in good timing.
Bye lucky.

Unvote, Vote: Lucky2u

This, unlike the attack on BP,

does

look like a bus -- it's sudden and totally inexplicable, and it's in response to building pressure on lucky (Grimgroove voted for him just before this post was made).

In general, I think the avoidance of mentioning partners is something inexperienced scum (e.g. Ztife) is likely to do, both because (a) producing convincing scum-scum interactions is actually pretty difficult and it's easier to just not do so, and (b) doing so doesn't actually push you towards a favorable lynch, which makes it easy to forget that you need to do it if you have little experience.

The next step for me is to take a look at Red Dragon's ISO (who, by the way, also fits into the "inexperienced scum" heuristic). Red Dragon posted a pretty fair amount (52 times, many of considerable length) before being replaced, and while Ztife isn't totally unmentioned in his ISO, he's brought up very rarely and there's never any attempt at discussion with him.

I agree with ztife it is a very bipolar stance to take. I don't want a lynch but I'm going to vote him. This reads to me as trying to setup a way out if future flips town, "if only you had waited he would have proved he was town."

What is your read on Future, Red Dragon
And what about you Ztife? How do you feel about the wagon behind his name and the people on it?

I mean, he isn't the worst d1 lynch. But I think bp is miles better.

Almost forgot:

VOTE: Ztife

You mkae quite to compelling case for zitfe. Just a quick question, is elyse or nachomamma scum? Meaning is it highly unlikely, in your opinion, for them both to be of the same alignment?

These three quotes are the only Ztife mentions of any substance - note the nonscummitment on Ztife's alignment (these are the only mentions of Ztife's alignment he makes) as well as the willingness to agree with Ztife's case but lack of interest in actually engaging Ztife in any way.

As for chernobyl/lucky, there isn't any need to go into detail here; open their joint ISO and ctrl+f Ztife and you'll see 0 mentions from chernobyl and literally the first mention from lucky was the hammer.

I expressed some uneasiness earlier that my top scumreads were on three of the weakest slots in the game, but the pieces of the puzzle fit together really well if they are all scum. Combine this with the fact that neither CDB's nor lucky's posts today have impressed me one bit and I'd be pretty happy with lynching either.

[Shamrock]

I think we all agree on Lucky2u being scum, he doesn't even retort to anything anymore himself. CDB is the other one. Lynch them and town wins this game.

Man you guys are going to be disappointed when I flip town. Seems like you have made up your mind.

I'll throw my vote here until otherwise moved. VOTE: Stupendous Man

What do you think about my argument above that SM is town because of Ztife's interactions with him

[Shamrock]

What about that post looks like a bus to you exactly? Nobody else was attacking BP with the intensity of Ztife

[Shamrock]

... Are you aware that I literally just made a case on CDB's slot on the last page?

[Shamrock]

I don't recall saying there is "no way" it was a bus. I just think it's very unlikely that Ztife, particularly as a fairly inexperienced player, would come out of the gate guns blazing on his scumbuddy.

[Shamrock]

... Are you aware that I literally just made a case on CDB's slot on the last page?

First off, that wasn't my point. My point is that you didn't do that YESTERDAY

Second, you said prior that you didn't make a case or comment on CDB yesterday because he hasn't posted much of anything. Since then he's posted nothing new and now you're able to make a case, so you LIED

Except that if you read my case you'll see that the entire thing pivots on Ztife's alignment -- so, no, I couldn't have made it yesterday.

Anyway.

VOTE: lucky

[Shamrock]

guys lets lynch lucky

[Shamrock]

There are currently 3 votes on me for literally 0 reason. Lol.

[Shamrock]

lucky, why are you voting for me?

[Shamrock]

I'm definitely still on board for CDB if we're doing that.

Lucky, how's about explaining your vote?

[Shamrock]

VOTE: CDB

Lucky tomorrow.

[Shamrock]

... yes? The most likely scum team IMO is you/CDB.

[Shamrock]

I'm about to embark on a re-read, but right now I'd say:

lucky (who is no less obviously scum than yesterday, and it's really a bit silly that we pivoted to CDB at the last minute)
StupendousMan (with CDB flipping town, I was probably wrong about Ztife's interactions with his slot making him town; but I need to look at the below players)
Grimgroove (still probably town based on play)
SunnyDays (still probably town based on claim)

More to follow later.

[Shamrock]

SunnyDays, I have to say that you are incredibly deep in confirmation bias territory with your scumread on me. I make a case - clearly that means I'm scum. I don't make a case - clearly that means I'm scum. People want to lynch me - clearly that means I'm scum. People don't want to lynch me - clearly that means I'm scum.

[Shamrock]

I don't understand your reasoning here, Sunny. Are you saying I'm scum for my reads align with the other players? I thought lucky was scum yesterday and I think he's scum today. And if he'd moved on my list, I bet you'd be attacking me for being inconsistent in order to avoid looking like I was fitting in.

Could you explain why you think I'm scum so I can at least try to address it?

[Shamrock]

While I continue to look through old posts to make sure of what I think I already know, there's one thing here I'd like to address:

Part of the problem I have with deciding between Shamrock and Stupendous is the fact that each slot has been occupied by three people:

thegooner: scum (I don't remember why at this point, I remember writing down reasons at some point so I can easily dig them up)
Nachopappa: null (was acting like a loon 95% of the time)
Shamrock: very town (his attacks on both Lucky and Ztife)

I have nothing to say about thegooner, but one of the reasons I agreed to replace into this slot is that I hate playing scum and I thought this slot was extremely likely to be town based on Nachopappa's play. So if you're having doubts about my predecessors, I suggest re-reading his conversation with Nachomamma from the bottom of page 24 to the top of page 26, which rang as extremely town and organic to me. Also, consider the fact that Nachomamma, a player who has flipped town and who has extensive experience playing with Nachopappa as both alignments, said that Pappa's play was "academy award level" if he was scum:

Pappa's town. He hates playing scum and ends up lurking like a motherfucker whenever he rolls it. If he's scum, it'd be an academy award level performance to his normal play.

[Shamrock]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=22984

[Shamrock]

To answer your question though, his interaction with me just before thread lock rang scum for me. Scum aren't stupid. I want my fellow two townies here to stop and think for a second about a situation where I am town. The scum know I am an easy lynch today, killing me yesterday would have made no sense. They sensed the opportunity to get CDB and took it, so they could win with me today. Stu led that wagon, and Shamrock hammered it once it was obviously popular with town. There is your scum team in action.

So I... mind controlled Slandaar into switching the momentum to CDB?? I never knew I had psychic powers

[Shamrock]

While I continue to look through old posts to make sure of what I think I already know,

What happened to this? I haven't seen any results of this read-through.

Didn't find anything that really stuck out at me as new information.

In order: Shamrock, Stu, SunnyDays, Lucky, Grim

Lucky, I want you to explain each one of these in-depth, especially why you put Grim after yourself.

That wouldn't make sense unless he's your partner.

You see, again you look scummy. Like I said before, Lucky is clearly trying to play mindtricks with that move. WIFOM bullshit. Why the hell are you playing along with that bolded afterthought?

That's not WIFOM, Grim. It's a conclusion. It doesn't make sense to put anyone behind themselves unless that person is a partner. It could also be buddying, I suppose. But why is it that when I try to arrive at a conclusion you immediately discredit it as being scummy? Would you prefer me to not think about anything Lucky has said? Explain to me how it is WIFOM. If he is buddying, why would you get so defensive about me thinking about the possibility of you being partners?

@Shamrock- What are your thoughts on SunnyDays' list? What are your thoughts on Lucky's list?

What do you mean by this? I've already given my thoughts on who I think the scumteam is and I don't think lylo behavior is very alignment-indicative.

[Shamrock]

I'm still here and I'm not chain quickhammering either. I'm pretty confident in Lucky/SM.

Don't have time for anything more right now - just taking a 2-minute glance at the game. Can post more later if needed.

[Shamrock]

Sunny, which player do you currently think is most likely to be scum?

[Shamrock]

Because I am, in fact, spending this dayphase just waiting to hammer. What else do you suggest that I do with it? From my perspective, this is a pretty easy decision; if either you or SunnyDays is scum then frankly you've played extremely well and deserve the win.

The reason that I asked that question is that I'd like to lynch the other person today so that I can worry less about Sunny lynching me tomorrow. I don't know why you'd say that's scummy, as I have nearly identical incentives to do that regardless of my alignment, considering I would lose if lynched tomorrow in either case.

[Shamrock]

I am assuming that you will be the nightkill, yes.

I don't know what you expect of me in terms of "obvtowning the hell out of us". What value is lylo behavior for discerning alignment? At this point scum-motivated behavior and town-motivated behavior are so closely aligned as to be virtually indistinguishable with any degree of certainty. The value of lylo discussion, in my view, is to share information and points of view in case there's anything missing. We're obviously in agreement about lucky. As for StupendousMan, I've really disliked most of his posting but I had written him off because of his slot's interactions with Ztife; however, CDB's townflip forced me to re-evaluate him and I think that, in retrospect, I was putting too much emphasis on this one interaction and ignored all of the other scummy things that have come both from StupendousMan and Miss Stranger (I had a townread on BP, but meh, you can't win 'em all - my early game reads are usually shit anyway). If you have any specific questions about that you are certainly free to ask them.

The fact that you've called my play strongly town suggests that you are already on the road to making the right decision; please don't psych yourself out of it just because I'm not willing to drop pointless walls that would do nothing to prove my alignment in the first place.

[Shamrock]

I'm not really comfortable ending the day until Sunny can make up his mind a bit more.

What do you mean "swore" and what does that have to do with his alignment?

[Shamrock]

[Shamrock]

Obviously my vote does not end the day yet, but it means someone else could end the day, and I'm not interested in having that happen yet, so why would I vote? I don't care whether I hammer or not, if you're paranoid about that I'm willing to cast the second vote, but there's no reason to do it right now. If there's one thing I've learned playing mafia it's that you can never assume people (including town) won't hammer at stupid times.

[Shamrock]

What makes a hammer at this point stupid in your eyes?

I ask this question because you said that LyLo behavior is not alignment indicative, so anything that happens now in this regard is pointless. You want SunnyDays to make up his mind about you, but why can't he do that during the following phase?

Right now, you and I are both alive to talk him into the right decision. Presumably, only one of us will be tomorrow.

[Shamrock]

2 down, 1 to go!

[Shamrock]

Is that the best you have?

I can't really imagine what could sway me from voting lucky today, but I'm happy to talk a bit first if need be. Otherwise I'll vote lucky within a day or two.

[Shamrock]

Well, whatever.

The play from both players in lucky's slot this game has just been objectively scummy. chernobylcitybus did nothing but lurk and give random reads/votes with no reasoning behind them, and lucky has done pretty much the same thing. Lucky still hasn't managed to give any reasonable explanation for his Ztife hammer, or his CDB vote, or his vote on me D4, or -- really, for pretty much anything he's done this game. There's no traceable thought process in his ISO or anything he's done. There's no attempt to develop and refine reads, there's no attempt to actively hunt scum or convince other people to vote for who he thinks is scum, there's really no "there" there apart from votes and half-assed position taking (and sometimes not even that). I can give examples of all these things if I really need to, but at this point I really feel like his play speaks for itself.

From your perspective, Sunny, it is of course at least vaguely possible that lucky is just a totally braindead and incompetent townie, but, frankly, I'm not nearly good enough at playing scum to play the way I have this game if I were scum.

I'd be happy to answer any questions, but I'd prefer to just finish this.

VOTE: lucky

[Shamrock]

Lol, 4 days and you haven't managed to make up a reason why I'm scum?

[Shamrock]

I was also an alt of MattP

My intention when making the alt account was to be able to pretend to be a new player on a game and to scumhunt without preconceived notions or anything and I replaced into the first game available. I was disappoint when I got scum and I feel a little dirty for pretending to be a newb with the ridiculous claim day one but c'est la vie

Are you really -_-

I knew faking newbstatus was a possibility but I didn't think anyone would actually do it so I figured it was stupid to worry about, aaaand lucky was so scummy to begin with.

Oh well, wp.

[Shamrock]

It's a little frustrating because I'm not sure there's any real way to tell whether a player is faking being new, and if you assume that they are faking it then you will usually end up being wrong and lynching incorrectly...

But whatever, in terms of "stupid bullshit that can happen in a mafia game" this is not even more than like a 3 out of 10