Mini 1532: Mac's Mini Normal - GAME OVER~

[TunnelVision]

Hello friends.

Rank

[TunnelVision]

And could we have the hydra sign their posts?

We'll be signing our posts, although Bauss sometimes forgets because he's not very smrt.

Rank

[TunnelVision]

We'll be signing our posts, although Bauss sometimes forgets because he's not very smrt.

Rank

As a matter of fact, we even sign our posts (Rank forgets sometimes because he's of failing mental health), just so people can analyze and follow our thoughts/meta more easily.

-Bauss-

Good one little buddy.

Hello everyone. Bauss here. Rank hasn't an original thought/read since 2012, so feel free to just ignore his posts. I hope to offset his epic fail with quality content and insights. Thanks in advance for tolerating him in the spirit of the Christmas season.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

also if dj and tunnel are both scum that means that i know all 3 scum

If TV's scum, we'll easily know by the rank:bauss post ratio

Aaaand we're into a meta discussion on page two. Wonderful. I would say that Bauss could just sign my name to posts to destroy that meta read, but let's be honest: We can all figure out which one it is by whether or not the conversation is based in reality (Rank) or whargarbl (Bauss).

Rank

[TunnelVision]

also if dj and tunnel are both scum that means that i know all 3 scum

If TV's scum, we'll easily know by the rank:bauss post ratio

I laughed. Rank shed hot tears of shame. Who are you? Secret alt? Hydra?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

3. The shrill vocal sound of a mouse, rat, or monkey.

I don't think we've met... Hi, I'm Bauss. (I think you're scum.) Nice to meet you. (Now we shall be hanging you.)

VOTE: Remembrance

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

As used in that post, we is me and you. As in, "I dont think you and I have met."

Honest question: Is English your primary language?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Do you have a sight impediment?

Because you missed one of my questions.

Nope. And I didn't miss it... I chose not to respond to it. TOTALLY different.

Who's your strongest read at the moment? Town/Scum... whichever.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

But I'm not moving my vote because that is what is commonly known as anti-town.

What is this?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Are you going to be scum hunting this game?

Some folks still hunt from a tree stand. Some people stalk their prey silently, and creep up on it. Others like long range skill shots. Still others circle overhead in a helicopter and rain death down from above. Hunting takes on many different forms for many different hunters, not all of which you may like or notice personally.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

TunnelVision is going to start walling soon.

I laughed out loud.

I'm seeing lots of TvT going down, IMO. How about everybody starts digging into the scumballs instead?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Pieguyn [L-3] - Sound of Silence, RadiantCowbells, Remembrance, frog

Pieguyn, you town? If you are, there's at least one scumball on your wagon (and I don't think it's RadiantCowbells.)

ICEninja [L-4] - My Milked Eek, don_johnson, Mephistopheles

Same goes for you ICEninja. Also, is that ICE like frozen water or ICE like Immigration Customs Enforcement? There's some illegal foreigners in this mix methinks.

Also of note... nobody else thinks Remembrance is scummy? Nobody else with a gut scum read on him?

Also, Rank'n'Bauss need to use this for their avatar:

I don't get the joke. Sad Bauss.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Holidays and past week have been crazy. Catch up post inbound today/tonight.

Rank

[TunnelVision]

The vote on TV was actually pretty proper. He was cheerleading.

Oh yeah? Elaborate for me a bit?

Me and Rank and catching up and comparing notes. I have a bunch of stuff to post, once we get through it all. Likely tomorrow.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

My second post or this slots second post? Specify which post please?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

1) I examine a lot of things... as town or scum. You can't call my alignment with ease, based on a single post. You doing so just makes me feel even stronger that you're scum. Let's face it, you dug on my meta, you know how I play, and you've been trying to shake me off indirectly with a town read on me that I haven't earned at all.

2) I like taking positions. I also like taking fake positions to throw off scum as they plot. And actually, as scum I love taking firm hard positions and railing/tunneling away (but you know this.)

3) So, me not tunneling somebody that I'm suspicious of (you), despite me being a huge tunneler when I'm town, gives you a town read on me?

TLDR, you know I'm town because you are scum. The post above, and your reasoning for your town read on me is so light I can't help but believe you're scum. Its only D1, and our play so far doesn't warrant a town read from anybody. I've got to get through my other notes with Rank before I post up a full case, but you've got this to work with for now.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Okay, I'll simplify: I'm playing like a shady bugger, but you're calling town from a single post. Refute or explain.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

@Mod: Is it reasonable to grant an extension, given the holidays and the replacements pending? A few days perhaps?

@SoS: thoughts on my beef with Remembrance?

@ICENinja: I suggested previously that there was scum on your wagon, but you didn't really do much with it. Do you disagree with that assumption?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

This is a bit of an odd question. While I admit the answer is kind of buried, I sort of answered your question directly following you asking me this. To elaborate, gut says jon is scum, but until I can really sink my teeth in to solid reasoning why I'm not going to really pursue that much for day 1. I very recently gave my read of Meph (or at least the slot, he's replacing out), and have stated more than once that I think MME is probtown (though his level of lurking is REALLY starting to bug me). I feel like if you were really reading my posts you'd know the answer to that question.

There's nothing odd about it to me. Imagine that you're me for a second, and I make the bold statement that their is scum on your wagon, and scum on another wagon. You respond simply, which is polite/expected, but you don't do any real digging. You also didn't really ask me to followup and explain why I thought that, who I thought was scum, or anything else that I would've expected from a town aligned player in that position. You didn't use the opportunity to try and sort me, get me to develop additional content, or commit to a read/opinion.

VOTE: ICENinja

You'll notice that Pie actually responded to me, asked some questions... attempted to open a dialogue with me. Shared some thoughts, dug a bit, and explored the notion. This is a very town like reaction. Sharing is caring, right? Also, to that point in the game, I've been pretty lackluster in terms of participation, input, etc. You might say I was lurky. Pie tried to draw me in and engage. You didn't.

So, TLDR, your reaction seems out of place with you being town aligned. Pie's seems to jive.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

What I'm not liking is TunnelVision's recent play. That last post screams of you blaming another player for your own lack of work, and I read your comment on scum being on a wagon inflammatory (and not in a good way, as all you seem to be doing is defusing, deflecting, and spreading confusion). I agree with active lurking, and clearly Rank's promise of catching up has not been met. Bauss, please do some scumhunting of your own, not asking Sos about your beef with Rem (how about you explain it? That is your onus, right?) or explaining how someone else could have drawn you in (ever heard of DIY?).

Vote: TunnelVision

There's a difference between blaming somebody for my own behavior (which I didn't do, at all) and identifying a behavior that is clearly not pro-town in nature (which I did.) I didn't make any excuses for my play, and quite frankly I wanted a reaction from both ICE and Pie... which I got. Looking at the same question posed to two different players, in basically the same fashion, we have two DRAMATICALLY different responses. That doesn't strike you as odd?

What I'm doing is exactly scum hunting... which I alluded to here:

Spoiler:

Some folks still hunt from a tree stand. Some people stalk their prey silently, and creep up on it. Others like long range skill shots. Still others circle overhead in a helicopter and rain death down from above. Hunting takes on many different forms for many different hunters, not all of which you may like or notice personally.

- Bauss -

There's lots of different tools in my tool belt. Asking other players, who I have a history with (SoS in this case), about their thoughts on my play/opinions is scum hunting... whether you see it or not. Sorry. And since we're being honest, their play so far this day has got my attention, which is why I asked them a question in the first place.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

I expect that this post answers you as well, Bauss. If not, then you'll probably have to ask your question differently.

That Fferyllt there? Where are you at with your town game? I remember dramatically different play from you when you were town. This feels more like your scum game so far, content/contribution light. As town, you were a champion contributer.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

There is one or more scum on my wagon (cough, TV) and I would literally bet the game on it. Wagons with piss poor reasoning don't form on town without some cohesion.

Great insights. Thanks for catching up.

Pieguyn, you town? If you are, there's at least one scumball on your wagon (and I don't think it's RadiantCowbells.)

In post 202, Mac wrote:
ICEninja [L-4] - My Milked Eek, don_johnson, Mephistopheles


Same goes for you ICEninja. Also, is that ICE like frozen water or ICE like Immigration Customs Enforcement? There's some illegal foreigners in this mix methinks.

Good grief.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

For the record, the reason everyone should vote TV is this snippet from SoS:

You did miss something. The thing that drew our vote was TV posting an exhortation that the people tunneling each other start scumhunting when TV had done fuck-all in the way of scumhunting to that point and continued to do fuck-all afterwards. I didn't say why I made the vote because I wanted reactions to evaluate.

Take that then add on the fact that as soon as a wagon started building on him at a point that was, at the time, deadline looming, he drops his vote on the largest wagon for absolutely trash reasoning.

He is the counter wagon to me, who is the largest wagon but has zero votes with legit reasoning behind them.

This is BS and even SoS knows it. That's why they aren't pushing it. They tossed a vote on me and a wimpy reason to fish for a reaction. I generally, as town, sit back and watch to see what develops on D1 until I have conviction. Then I death tunnel like a rage fueled Juggernaut. SoS knows this, as do I.

[TunnelVision]

You asked me that question in post 212. I responded to it in post 213. What the fuck more do you want from me?

Also, I should add that TV's vote on me definitely seem impacted by OMGUS.

I'm pointing out that you're literally regurgitating a point I made over 100 something posts ago... and using it as a reason why I am scum. That doesn't seem off to you?

[TunnelVision]

Not at all. I actually agree wholeheartedly that there is scum on my wagon at this moment in time. You joined a wagon that you felt was scum driven, with piss poor reasoning. This actually makes me even more comfortable with my vote.

This is bad and you should feel bad. Just becuase I suggest there is scum on a wagon doesn't mean the wagon is scum driven or that the wagon is good/bad. To say that like its gospel is either a blatant misrep or a lack of understanding of how scum can/will play. Its typical for scum to opportunistically slide a vote onto a wagon at a point that it feels comfortable/non attention grabbing. Early on, when it doesn't have momentum... mid range, in the "butter zone"... when a deadline is approaching and "we have to lynch somebody." These are some common examples. They'll lack reasoning, scum hunting, conviction , or anything that generally resembles town behavior.

Scorpion should also feel bad for echoing this. You don't think scum would ever slide and park a vote onto a scum buddy early on D1 when that wagon didn't have any real steam? You think that ICE as town would look at his own wagon, agree that somebody on it is probably scum, and then laaa-dee-daaa ignore that notion for several pages... only to reiterate the sentiment and redirect it onto the guy that suggested it?

Srsly, like wtf is going on here.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

I don't remember you considering me a champion contributor when our mutual town game was in progress. :/

You had a LOT of posts. Lots of chatter. Engaging the player base. Talking, exploring, etc. Whether I liked your content or not, there was a vast amount of it. Now, in a recent game you were scum... everybody kept saying "This must be scum Fferyllt, she just doesn't post much." And, I didn't get it until I reread on you and dug a bit farther. It seemed pretty apparent, that when you're scum, you def post less frequently and engage other players significantly less.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

So that took 3 hours :X
If you have any questions let me know.
TV, why don't you share what you think about everything before you die?

I don't do full reads lists this early in the day, or at this stage. Too much info for scum to have all at once. If you have a specific question, please ask.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

RC/hayato your deal isn't doing either of you much credit. I'm just glad nobody else supports the deal.

@TV: differing reactions is no more odd than you claiming to have so many different tools in your belt. Why can't ICE have been scumhunting elsewhere, as he claims? I don't see how your explanation follows.

He sure was doing other stuff, I don't dispute that at all.

Behaviors/actions are pretty solid and its why I like to focus on them. Somebody does something, and they can't take it back. Its there, on the page, immortalized in black and white. What they can do, is try to explain why/how or whatever the reasoning is for that behavior. So, we get insights into their motivations, by looking at their behaviors and then comparing them to what they say, what we believe, etc.

So the actions of ICE and Pie in response to the same question from me, were totally different. ICE's explanation was essentially, "I was doing other stuff." Great. But, I never said he wasn't. Go reread what I said to him directly, and his responses with that framework in mind and let me know if anything else seems off to you.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Scorpion should also feel bad for echoing this. You don't think scum would ever slide and park a vote onto a scum buddy early on D1 when that wagon didn't have any real steam? You think that ICE as town would look at his own wagon, agree that somebody on it is probably scum, and then laaa-dee-daaa ignore that notion for several pages... only to reiterate the sentiment and redirect it onto the guy that suggested it?

The sentiment is primarily of interest because you are the one who claimed there is scum on his wagon if he is town, yet you are now voting him. I need you to tell me who on the wagon is scum if he is town.

That's not how this works. If he's town, there is a high probability that somebody in the wagon at that point is scum. I don't know who, and I don't have strong reads on any of those players... but I believe from experience that one of them is scum. Just like I believe that one of the lowest count posters is also scum. Its a probability only, not a read.

I also believe that one of the least active players is likely to be scum. And that one of the players on Pies wagon at that point, is scum. All from a probability perspective. These are not based on actual reads.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Why do you disagree on this?

This is a theory thing for me. When I'm scum, I LOVE reads lists. I just take them, map out the game, and then systematically figure out exactly how to manipulate different players using their reads and other players reads on them, etc. Its deadly info to put into my hands, as scum... so I fear sharing it when I don't need to.

As town, nobody really believes anybody else, so reads lists are mediocre at best. Even when I die, and flip town, nobody is going to go back and say "Bauss was town, he's good at town, and he though Joe and John were scum. Lets hang Joe, then John." Its just a fact of how the game goes most of the time.

I'm not going to get derphammered before a claim, and Id expect a last chance to actually publish my reads... so I'm not sharing them now as I know I'll have an opportunity to do it later.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

OK
You need to be clear about these things though because from my perspective it sounded like you had reads on some of the players and were hiding them.
So you think Ice is scum. Do you think the wagon is entirely town driven? If not, who on it do you think is scum?

Sometimes clarity is not the best policy as town. In the absence of clarity, people insert their own opinions, thereby giving insights into themselves.

Example:
I was unclear. I did something that could easily be perceived as shady. You are exploring it. Exploring shady shit is a very townie thing to do. You're not biased by my tunneling in on you directly, so you're coming at it straight and with a clear head. I take all those pieces, plus the time you put into reading the game and sharing notes/thoughts, and I'm pretty confident you're town. This behavior jives with a town alignment, based on a quick profile of you as a player.

But I got that info out of you, indirectly, just from being shady. And, I'm getting info from some other people in similar fashions.

I'll answer your other questions at a later point in time, if you don't mind. Timing is bad now.

I need to hear more from the Fferyllt head of SoS.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Probably 10 years.

[TunnelVision]

TunnelVision is going to start walling soon.

Could you elaborate a bit on this? I read this and assumed Rem knew you from before this game (first, is this true?) and that you are someone who posts walls of text once the game gets going. I expected such a wall to appear before now but hasn't happened (for the reasons you've stated). Does this analysis sound correct?

I've got probably a dozen games on this board, and most of my posts explaining my reads turn into walls. He dug on me, and came up with that pretty quickly. Rank tells me to wall less, and people will listen more... but that never seems to work. I tend to generate reads/cases that people think are crazy and it takes a lot of words to explain them and convince people.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Is there a reason why you're subtly discrediting my meta experience with you here? It is pretty thin meta experience, but I'm used to making do with thin meta soup.

You do sit back and observe, but this is page 18 of a mini game and IME you give some pretty strong hints about where you're going much earlier than this in the games we've played.

I did not discredit at all. I actually believe that your vote and play was a pressure move, not a legit "I think TV is scum, let's hang him." I thought you were doing it to flesh out s read, not to actually lynch me. Am I wrong or right in that assumption?

You're right, I do tend to point out where I'm going pretty early... which I did.

Quantity of posts doesn't distinguish my scum game, though depending on the games you take a look at (town and scum) you could come away with that impression. You obviously didn't have a look at the Xenogears Large theme game. Even when AFB was making 5-6 post combos raging at you in NY 167, the Sangres post count was always higher, and the majority of those posts were mine. That changed on the final day with the gunsmith reveal and RC's faked cop guilty. In other words, I can and do manipulate my post count as scum sometimes.

The observation about engaging probably has some truth, but it's a subtle thing that could easily be lost in the noise in my games, because I go silent frequently as town, too, especially when a lot is happening in the game thread. Observing without jostling what's going on too much is sometimes pretty revealing. I think you probably understand the reasons for that technique because you also employ it.

But its more than simply the quantity. Its more the quantity/quality, or overall "usefulness" of the posts. Where you're coming from, where you're going, what's the game status, who are you developing a read on, who's opinion are you trying to leverage off, etc. You were a leader as town, trying to rally townies to work together. As scum you weren't. It feels as if youre not part of the team when you're scum. Its nuance, but I found it and I think its a pretty good window into your play.

So, I have one last point/observation that I need clarity on:
Why are you voting me?
I've noticed from your play that you have been reluctant to hang players that you know can be assets to the town, if you are uncertain of their alignment. So why, at this stage of the game, given my play (which you said yourself could jive with either alignment) are you voting me? Surely with several days remaining, and other suspects around, there are other plays to be made... but you've parked your vote on me even as I sit at L2. I think town Fferyllt would've cautioned against this and unvoted, in this game state.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Rank has been absent for basically the whole game. Do his thoughts differ from yours significantly?

Also, is this typical of your hydra?

No, not typical. Rank has been busy. Its the holiday season and he got a huge promotion at work. After all these years of my coaching and tutelage, they made Rank a bauss... finally. Unfortunately, he lacks the supreme boss powers of an experienced boss (like me) so he's buried.

When we last caught up, he didn't like Remembrance (read) and didn't want us to lay out anymore than one scum read for today (strategy.) He didn't want scum to know we were coming for them/onto them. But, he hasn't shared much strategy/reads since then and I'm just going to layout all my opinions/cards before nightfall if he doesn't come back.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

You've encouraged others to look on their own wagons for scum. What are your thoughts about your wagon's composition.

Cat is out of the bag on that trick for this game... once you bring something to light like that, there's too much WIFOM to continue the probability speculation on subsequent wagons. (Scum might know we are looking at viable wagons voting patterns and withhold voting, scum might pile votes onto a single wagon as in too bad to be scum, etc etc.)

I actually have a small case worth sharing on Remembrance, which I can fill out, once everybody decides not to hang me. If I push on him too hard and do my thing now, I'm likely to be run back up and pushed to L1 for a claim. So, I'll wait for the green light from some folks before I light him up again.

In the interim, RC does have great instincts but its hard to follow the loose play style for me. So my read on that slot will suck. Her play is almost identical this far, to the last game I played with her and we were both town. So I'm inclined to lean town there, and give credit to the instincts/reads.

RC, read on Remembrance and SoS?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Why the claim before L1? Wtf.

UNVOTE:

[TunnelVision]

We're lynching one of [SoS, TV, RC]. OK? OK.

If your vote is elsewhere, move it.

You don't get to call shots like a boss just because you lost your nerve and RC'd without enough heat for it. There's an etiquette to the game, and claiming doc at L2 isn't just a breach of etiquette, it gimps town of a power role. I hope you never do that again. This is a game that brings heat/frustration as a key component of the game play... if you can't keep it at bay, polish your style or thicken your skin.

That said, I'm vehemently opposed to lynching myself (derp) or RC (town read of mine.) SoS I can get behind if no better option presents.

Also, you're wrong about me bussing. I love to bus as scum. Meta dive or GTFO with assumptions/comments like that.

I like all the new replacements so far, let's keep them. I'll lynch SoS, Hayato, or FlameFace. SoS will get in here if they get run up, I'm positive of that.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

SoS is V/LA how would they get in here?
I would be very very happy if flameaxe was not around but at the same time I don't actually know if he's scum. Townread on Hayato obviously.

There's two heads in that hydra and I suspect thst at least one of them will be reading/checking in. Call it a hunch.

Actually, I have a bright idea... let's lynch somebody that is town reading me. I've been shady. Stands to reason that at least one of the scum team would publicly town read me.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

TV is is still town and I don't want an SOS lynch.

How about this one

Nah. I think RC is town. What else you got?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Cause I kind of think TV is town too

I just went through, and I nominate this guy.

VOTE: BBmolla

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Also pretty certain top 2 wagons are on town so yeah, stop sucking please.

This before reading the thread suggests other knowledge. Like, scum knowing who is actually town.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

I don't really want to lynch TV, I'd rather sheep Flameaxe onto Tomato.

But over that I'd rather lynch Rememberence.

This struck me as odd after the reads list/ catch up post and previously saying wagons were on town. Its an "either or" setup with a back door escape route on both (I didn't want to Lynch TV and I was sheeping Flame.) After suggesting either myself or Hayato was scum. Just weird. I don't see town logic/play here.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Wow Pie's reads sucked

I thought Pie would have good reads but lo and behold I get "RC IS SCUM!!" garbage

Not amish, reading Pie's posts as I readthrough because I thought he'd solve the game but nope.

Distancing from predecessor's play/reads/mistakes.

No bueno.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Flameaxe I'll probably just sheep you in the next couple days but I can't yet because I think ICENinja is probably town so people will call me scum for it.

Hayato looks town.

Logic: If Hayato looks town, and either TV or Hayato is scum, then TV should be scum.

Also note here vocalizing the "They'll think I'm scum if I do X" preemptive explanation/ defense.

-Bauss-

[TunnelVision]

Why the fuck aren't we lynching SoS

Lead the way!

VOTE: SoS

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and wager that the wagon on me won't be productive for town in any capacity. Whether it ends in lynching me, a role claim, or delaying the formation/pursuit of a better alternative wagon.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

UNVOTE:

Going to unvote and wait. I've seen far more derphammers on this site than I like to see.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Damn, Tunnel - 1, SoS - 2. Bout time I got a read right on Fferyllt.

WTF, why vig kill Scorpion? Dude was obv town.

ICENinja, hope you learned your lesson. Don't RC before absolutely necessary. Better luck next time.

RC, what's your read on BBMolla. Share please.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Role fishing is wicked scummy. I shall lynch all role fishers.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Role fishing is wicked scummy. I shall lynch all role fishers.

- Bauss -

You're an idiot.

Refute with logic. I'd love to hear your brilliant responses to my "idiotic" assertion.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

1. I'm not rolefishing. I'm straight up asking for a claim.
2. Aegor is scum.

1) Effectively the same thing at this stage of the day. We have players that haven't even posted yet, and you're pushing for a premature claim. How'd that work out with ICENinja? K, thanks.

2) Oh yeah? I see a Wonka meme brewing...

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

You guys are about a subtle as a nuclear strike.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

VOTE: Aegor

Advancing.

[TunnelVision]

Don and TV, your posting is terribad

IIRC you spent most of yesterday hating on me and not wanting to lynch SoS, so please forgive me for not caring what you think of my posting. My posting helped identify SoS as scum, whether you choose to give credit for it or not.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Because BS.

VOTE: Aegor

Easy breezy.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Prod dodge. Posting shortly.

[TunnelVision]

Voted SOS:

BBmolla, ChannelDelibird, don_johnson,

ICEninja

, frog,

Aegor

,

RadiantCowbells

Didn't Vote SOS:

XScorpion

, My Milked Eek, hayatoBL,

Sound of Silence

, TunnelVision, Flameaxe

Voted AEGOR:

My Milked Eek, ChannelDeliBird,

RadiantCowbells

, TunnelVision, don_johnson, HayatoBL

Didn't vote Aegor:

Not Voting: Bbmolla,

Aegor

, Flameaxe, frog

The above for your consideration/discussion ( I think I got my colors right.) What I observe is scum exhibiting the classic behavior of "some on/some off" a scum wagon D1. Keeping that behavior in mind, I expect scum to replicate a similar behavior on D2.

D2 Aegor, with a cop guilty on him, was an easy bus vote from a scum partner. Looking at his wagon yesterday, and the behavior on D1, we have at least one scum on the wagon.

Which means, scum in here (based on my assumptions and probability):
My Milked Eek (claimed cop)
ChannelDeliBird
don_johnson
HayatoBL
TunnelVision (I'm town, herp-dee-derp)

So, in theory we lynch from:
ChannelDeliBird, don_johnson, HayatoBL

Of those three, I like HayatoBL the most for lynch:
1) Abstained from the SoS vote, because his scum buddy Aegor was already on it.
2) Got the good guy cred for voting for Aegor, even holding the hammer on it, D2

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

I'd like to look at another behavior we saw... somebody suggested a vig claim.

Asking For A Vig Claim:
BBMolla

Now, scum would be foolhardy to publicly ask for a Vig Claim, IMO. But, scum would do well to score town cred/points by saying "No Vig, don't claim, let mafia search for you."

Publicly Against A Vig Claim:
MilkedEEK (cop)
CDB
Hayato

I think that is all the people that volunteered a stance on the subject. Conveniently, two of those folks also on my list above... CDB and Hayato.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

I feel like there are a couple players here that aren't trying to sort...

FlameFace and DonJohnson... neither of you two have directly interacted with me at all this game. What's up with that? No love?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

MME, you need to read my posts, not skim. You've got at least two blatant misreps/misunderstandings in your analysis of my last post. I directly mentioned the Aegor guilty, that post to flame and Don was my last post of the night (before bed), I frigging started the heat on SoS and the wagon but got off post claim pre mod post, and didn't have a chance to get back on (I wasn't around.) It was an easy claim to test/verify with a little time and patience.

Also, I believed you had something even before your claim. I just didn't go all willy nilly because I didn't want to tip your hand and paint a target on your back. Hence my frustration with the not so subtle escalation after a couple hours of game time. You didn't give anybody the chance to do the dirty work of trying to lynch Aegor without your claim. But it was your play, and your call. I thought it was less than ideal, given the game state, but we lynched scum and you survived the night so no complaints.

You're also ignoring the fact that both SoS and Aegor ran me up to L2 on D1. Pretty quickly. With little to no reason. Doesn't that seem fishy? SoS started the vote on me, and Aegor piled right on shortly after. Think it through

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Lol. Critical thinking not your strong suit, huh? D1, two confirmed scum start and push a lynch on me. You think that's a hard bus? Your presumed scum QT went like this: "Hey guys, great idea... let's start a hard bus on D1. Who should we sacrifice? Not the goons... let's pick TV." ?????? Aren't we under the impression that from a game balance perspective team scum has a godfather or some other power role? Use your brain.

You're literally ignoring my explanations and logic in general.

Further, you think mafia is played on a level where a person always says what they're thinking/doing with 100% transparency? I'm not going to school you on mafia theory and play, but there is a whole other level of play that you're either unaware of or ignoring. I routinely obfuscate my real reads until game state reaches a point where those reads are critical for town knowledge and play. 20 hours into D2, sure I said I wanted to lynch you. Doesn't that leave the scum thinking "Hey, another mislynch opportunity... let's not NK MME...maybe TV will help us hang him." Couldn't that in a sense help protect you?

Also, your most recent response is even more douchie. I don't care that I got run up by scum on D1, I was just pointing to it. I didn't rage and role claim in frustration, I avoided the mislynch and we hung scum instead. That's how the game is played. Kudos to team scum for getting me to L2 on D1. Kudos to us for lynching scum two days in a row.

Go re-read my exchange with SoS. Take into account that I was only a couple votes from lynch. Read between the lines there. Actually, try reading between the lines in general. Its quite obvious I thought Fferyllt was scum, but used an angle to get her to unvote me as we neared the deadline.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Nothing, literally nothing, has indicated the presence of a GF so far.

Two goon flips implies scum's third power is very powerful to compensate.

You know, with a doc and a cop and all.... And a Vig/SK in the mix.

At least somebody gets it. Game balance considerations suggest this very strongly.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

I, for one, love having someone ask why I haven't interacted with them all game. Especially when its someone who hasn't done it in the reverse way either.

Throwing that thought out there.

954 is sort of where I'm at with that lynch. Just makes the lynch a shaky idea to me. Sorry Eek, I'll sheep another day .

I'm glad my thoughts about 939 seem to have made it to frog too. I couldn't be the only one that had a bad taste regarding that post.

This thread is in dire heyato-need.

And this is a perfectly townie response to what I did. Excellent.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Can you be less full of shit any time soon?

I already said we should hang HayatoBL, and gave some of my reasons. What else would you like? Should I expand by saying I'm town, slight town, or null on the remaining players? You were my only other real suspicion outside BBMolla (cop inno), but your response is so town town town I feel warm and fuzzy now.

Don't like my style? From a very simple question, my profile of you as a player, and your response to my simple question, I strongly believe you to be town. You can call what I'm doing BS or think I'm absolutely crazy, it doesn't bother me one bit. You won't be the first to hate on it, and certainly won't be the last.

I think Hayato is our lynch for today, hands down. I'm open to discussion, but I don't see a better option for today given what we have in front of us. I'd lobby harder, but I think this will come together with relative ease. I'm holding my vote as a courtesy, as a number of players have requested he get in here and post, and we spend some time chatting through our options for the day.

I shared some voting analysis that has helped me find scum in the past, with high levels of success. I thought it helpful, though some disagree. That's fine. I pointed to a behavior that stood out to me, and shared my insights there. Some may think it helpful, some disagree. That's fine too. This is mafia, this is what we do.

Tell you what, I've worked the numbers and scenarios pretty hard and I think that if we are correct in assuming 3 scum, we should win without too much trouble. We could mass claim, but I don't think that'd help too much, given what I think the setup looks like.

What do you think about any/all of the above?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Here. Will post catch up later today

[TunnelVision]

After reading Hayato again, and these catch up posts, I'm having real trouble believing he's the last member of the scum team. He's doing things that don't jive with him being scum. It just feels off. So either I'm incorrect on there being a single faction 3 scum team or Hayato is town (third option, I'm losing it.) That's my take away after a comprehensive review.

I think last remaining scum is playing either really ballsy, or really smart. Unfortunately, I keep going back to BBMolla. I know, innocent and all, but his play has changed from when he first joined the game until now. Previously, he was taking a more active role, leading conversations and such. Today, hes more sheepy, less vocal, etc. This seems strange considering he got cleared last night and could more easily lead town/opinions. This behavior doesn't seem to jive with the circumstances.

All that said, I don't see enough support for a BBMolla Lynch today, and the game state doesn't justify lynching "innocents" right now.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Consider this my Intent to hammer. Claim time Don Juan, please.

Sidebar: How am I the only one getting prodded this frequently? Yowza.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

I'd prefer Hayato over Don

But admittedly I'm out of touch with recent postings.

We can tell.

I literally lol'd.

I'll hammer when deadline gets close if nothing else comes to light.

[TunnelVision]

Anybody interested in swapping this wagon around to Hayato? Don's been doing some things that strike me as town, since he got run up.

Hayato on the other hand, one of the things about him that I couldn't put my finger on was he was arguing about things in hindsight that weren't worth discussing (IMO.) I pegged it as lost townie, looking for traction. But I reread and I'm having trouble with it. Maybe it's actually just scum trying to contribute and appear invovled/helpful while not actually doing anything.

Don at this point, is trying. His frustration/rage seemed genuine, and though it would normally be null... his refusal to claim, and essential rage quit (just lynch me) seemed town. As scum, his win con requires him to fight all the way (if he's the last remaining scum) but as town he knows sometimes you get lynched for the greater good.

I've been doing some meta diving, which I rarely do. Flameaxe, can you point me to a completed scum game you played here on this board?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Stop wasting your time on meta'ing Flameaxe and get to the real issues.

What are the real issues as you see them?

[TunnelVision]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and wager that the wagon on me won't be productive for town in any capacity. Whether it ends in lynching me, a role claim, or delaying the formation/pursuit of a better alternative wagon.

- Bauss -

I'd like to reiterate this point I made a long time ago...

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Sorry for going off like that with little warning.

Anyway, thanks for contributing that much, don, even if I don't like how you haven't been very standard in your L-1 play.

Unvote

I see the case on TV put am still puzzled as his logic on why he wouldn't be bussed D1 is sound.

The logic here is quite simple...

Assumption:

We are operating under the assumption that the scum team is 3 players, and 1 of them is a Godfather and immune to investigation.

Facts:

Two scum goons tried to push a lynch on me D1.

Inference:

If I'm scum, I'd be the Godfather (based on the assumption above.) Pushing a bus on the Godfather on D1, is the most redonkulous scum team maneuver I've ever heard of (based on both dead scum goons tried to wagon me up on D1)
Therefore, I'm town.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Why assume that the scum team is 2 goons and a Godfather?

We have a cop, 1 shot, 2 shot, or unlimited.
We had a doctor.

This combination alone is very powerful for town to have.

Why not assume multiball and two scum factions? Well, we had 2 NK's on N1, and only one NK on D2, despite the doctor being killed off N1. This suggests that we have a town aligned vig of some sort... perhaps a single shot, or unlimited with restraint, who knows. We could FURTHER assume that we have a RB who blocked a scum kill last night, but I'd like to think that is VERY far fetched given the cop and doc roles, and the actions we've seen.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

whats the purpose of setup speculation when deadline is hours away?

It's not setup speculation, it's further explanation of my previous post and support for why I believe the scum team is 2 goons and a Godfather.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

I'm town vig. I've dropped several subtle hints, if anybody wants further validation.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

I'd like everybody to post a secondary target, in case we lynch town...

Who should I kill tonight?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Spoiler:

Voted SOS:

BBmolla, ChannelDelibird, don_johnson,

ICEninja

, frog,

Aegor

,

RadiantCowbells

Didn't Vote SOS:

XScorpion

, My Milked Eek, hayatoBL,

Sound of Silence

, TunnelVision, Flameaxe

Voted AEGOR:

My Milked Eek, ChannelDeliBird,

RadiantCowbells

, TunnelVision, don_johnson, HayatoBL

Didn't vote Aegor:

Not Voting: Bbmolla,

Aegor

, Flameaxe, frog

The above for your consideration/discussion ( I think I got my colors right.) What I observe is scum exhibiting the classic behavior of "some on/some off" a scum wagon D1. Keeping that behavior in mind, I expect scum to replicate a similar behavior on D2.

D2 Aegor, with a cop guilty on him, was an easy bus vote from a scum partner. Looking at his wagon yesterday, and the behavior on D1, we have at least one scum on the wagon.

Which means, scum in here (based on my assumptions and probability):
My Milked Eek (claimed cop)
ChannelDeliBird
don_johnson
HayatoBL
TunnelVision (I'm town, herp-dee-derp)

So, in theory we lynch from:
ChannelDeliBird, don_johnson, HayatoBL

Of those three, I like HayatoBL the most for lynch:
1) Abstained from the SoS vote, because his scum buddy Aegor was already on it.
2) Got the good guy cred for voting for Aegor, even holding the hammer on it, D2

- Bauss -

And I'd like to go back to this post I made above. I believe very strongly that the scum lies between Hayato, Don, and CDB. Unless we have some wtfery, which brings me to:

BBMolla as Godfather.

[TunnelVision]

It's tight on time... like 2 hours or less. FlameAxe, me, you, CDB all here and posting. Everybody else seems like a maybe

[TunnelVision]

I shot BBMolla last night. And I shot Xscorpion on N1.

I'm buried with some work stuff, but if anybody has questions and they give me a list I'll pound away at them when time permits.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

no shot on night 2?

Correct.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Sure, I'll explain why I thought WBO seemed cool, despite there only being three posts:

The first one, though late, looked like he was trying to connect with what was going on, even if it was late RVS. The second one promised content, which is never a bad thing. He replaced out too earl to produce said content but it looked town to me. The reason he used to replace out (too many people to keep track of) is a town complaint, not a scum one. It would suggest that he's trying to read everybody and do some scum hunting but is finding a 13 player game too big to do this.

Of course, we have hindsight in that his slot flipped scum, but there's why I thought he was town.

There are some things I am concerned with so far this game:
1) don not claiming. Aside from beginning to contribute more after we'd asked him to (and that was a battle) nothing he's done as yet has dispelled the possibility of him being scum.
2) TV shooting BBMolla. I'd like you to explain why you shot BB, TV.

If you read some of my previous posts, you'll find that I was suspicious of BBMOlla before he got the innocent investigation. You'll also see that I remained suspicious of his departure in play/behavior post getting investigated. And lastly, you'll notice that I believe we have a godfather in this setup.

But you knew all this, as my ISO isn't very large, why ask me again?

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

So let's lynch Hayato, and if that's no good, tonight I'll shoot frog.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

VOTE: Hayato

Might as well get the show on the road.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Prod dodge. Swamped, but can post more tomorrow.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

TV, you now need to clarify how many shots you have.

That's not how this works.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

On the off chance that you are a Town aligned Vengeful, venge killing me is no bueno. The numbers look really poor after that happening.

Though, I rarely expect to see a Town aligned Vengeful as a role. So, that leads me to believe that you're not town aligned and just hoping to swing an unvote and extend your mafia life.

If I'm SK, as many seem to be entertaining, why didn't I kill on N2? Riddle me that. SK is not an easy role to take all the way to win, and you most certainly need to be killing. We have no RB's, no Jailers, no Docs alive N2... so no night action prevented my kill. Logic it through.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Who would've RB' me and not said shit? A town RB? Mafia can't have one, IMO. And if I was SK and knew who the BP mafia was, don't you think I'd have BS'd a better roleclaim than town Vig? C'mon man, give me some credit... SK claiming Vig = you get mafia killed or lynched. Period. Then you don't win. That's it.

If you're sure that me as Vig means 100% Hayato is mafia, then somebody needs to hammer his face and send us to post game.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

no. sk claiming vig is easy cover. sk claiming vig is better than sk claiming vanilla and then getting lynched. you claimed under threat of lynch. as sk, you were dead anyway. also, you could be bp sk. that would certainly explain the lack of nk on night two.

Your sig says you're 0-6 playing SK, proof that its a hard role to win with. I can assure you that claiming vig as SK is not the way to win. Sure, it might prevent a lynch on an early day... but you're getting hung or NK'd. You won't make it to end game. In Lylo/Mylo, town is going to hang you with scum help or they know they've killed off all the mafia and you're the only thing left worth lynching.

I play to win, not just to avoid a lynch D3 and lose in the end.

- Bauss -

[TunnelVision]

Thought we were screwed after the no lynch; very nice.
So...how is this setup not balanced in town's favor?
And TV why did you shoot me? T_T

Sorry man. I reread you like three times before calling that kill. Got a funny vibe, and I think I talked myself into believing it. I didn't have Rank around to bounce ideas off and made two bad calls.

Sorry to BBMolla too. But I couldn't get past that behavioral change. Screamed scum to me.