Mini 1601: B_E's Mind Mafia ABANDIFIED

[Elias_the_thief]

Howdy all. Glad to be returning from my hiatus in a game with a few other old fogies. Reading the game thread now, will post thoughts and such soon.

[Elias_the_thief]

Goddamn. This game is all over the place, and hard to read. Here's where I'm at right now...apologies for a semi large post.

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The first thing that got my attention was Csareo's 14. I don't like a lot of what's going on there. Phrases like "fellow townies", and telling other players how to respond to game events seems scummy to me. His interaction with Riddleton, in particular, is quite interesting.

Farther into my read, I feel a lot better about Csareo. Well, maybe better isn't the right word. I don't feel strongly that he is town or scum at this point. He is, well, illogical. If you look at how he's played this game from either alignment, its just kinda bad.

Finally, more farther (heh) into my read, Csareo is looking scummy again. His insistence that he has made a "policy" vote and will change it easily seems off and anti-town to me (what's the point of making the vote if you admit its meaningless and temporary, other than appeasing the pressure you're receiving...?). Also, the emotion based argument holds no water for me. How can you come into a game discussing your meta, and then prosecute a player for a generalization? And one that sounds as if you made it up just now for convenience?

Further, the notion of Riddleton flip-flopping is fabricated...he never called Csareo town.

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I don't think Ythill's change in stance was too abnormal, especially that early in the game. I agree that Riddleton's FOS doesn't make very much sense. Ythill feels town to me.

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Kid A seems to be coasting on minimal posts. Interested to see whether he will come up with this case that he has promised, but glad that he has at least committed to an opinion and a vote.

Dybeck has posted about 50/50 between content and filler posts. His avatar has shown up plenty, but there's not much to say where his suspicions lie. Will be interested in seeing what he comes up with when he returns Monday. Leaning scum based on how he's said so little about so much game.

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ABR is being ABR. Having played with him before, that's all I have to say about that.

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Riddleton feels neutral to me. I don't agree with everything he's done/said, but he appears to be hunting.

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Leaning town on Aegor. Appears to be hunting.

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Dont like 110 from Heph. Otherwise okay with his posts. Appears to be hunting.

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Leaning town on T S O. Asking the right questions and hunting.

@T S O: Who are your reads other than Csareo?

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I believe that concludes the active players in this game. I will refrain from voting for now. I'd like to see responses to this post. I'm not 100% convinced of Csareo as scum and not just bad town...but he has lied and exhibited other examples of anti-town behavior. Would not be upset if he went today. Would also be down for a Dybeck wagon after he returns, see if he's got anything useful to say (besides ironically asking for something useful from ABR).

[Elias_the_thief]

Too much noise in here. Also, Csareo's #172 was scummy like whoa.

unvote, vote Riddleton

This is what it looks like when I actually sheep Kid. IMO, the game state suggests that a few other townies should do the same.

If that post was so scummy, why are you following Csar's lead and voting Riddleton? What has Riddleton done that warrants jumping off a wagon, right after its target makes a post that is "scummy like whoa"?

[Elias_the_thief]

If that post was so scummy, why are you following Csar's lead and voting Riddleton?

The game state, as I said in my post.

Humor me. Was it the stalled wagon, or general inactivity? Or some other aspect of the game state?

What has Riddleton done that warrants jumping off a wagon, right after its target makes a post that is "scummy like whoa"?

Nothing at all. Csareo is still my lead suspect ATM, I'm just not voting him.

Fair enough.

[Elias_the_thief]

No that is not fair enough. That is a horrible reason. We have like 2 weeks and they are content with not voting their TOP scum read.

This is here I must disagree...two weeks is a long time and there is clearly support for a Csar lynch. Why end the day now, when all the new players have just arrived?

[Elias_the_thief]

I can see benefit in following other wagons D1. But I'm also curious as to what in the game state influenced his vote change.

[Elias_the_thief]

IMO, it would help us if lone voters picked a wagon or consolidated. People who are not voting should start playing the game.

@beast:

If you want me to teach you how to play mafia, ask outside the game thread. If the scum haven't figured out the aspects of play that make particular game states fruitful for particular information, then I'm not tipping them off until it's no longer relevant. If you think game state is a scummy reason to vote, I'm fine with you voting me.

I feel pretty strongly that withholding info leads to bad and not good, and your reluctance to give a straight answer here smells more scum without a good answer than it does town trying not to tip his hand. Even if its the latter, why not spill the beans and get everybody on board with your wagon of choice? Because, I gotta say, a vague assertion that townies should jump on isn't very convincing. I'd like to know what you saw in the "game state" that told you "a few other townies" should sheep kid.

VOTE: Ythill

[Elias_the_thief]

I will explain as soon as it's no longer relevant. To address your suspicion, I often find that scum are cooperative rather than obstinate.

Eh...I can see that falling into the WIFOM category. I think the idea of withholding info vs sharing info is just a bit more concrete. But my vote's already on you. Not gonna keep on this point for longer than necessary.

@Aegor: It seems to me that his playstyle is involved only insofar as he uses VC's to influence his tells more often than other players might. The choice to not share that information seems to me to be a decision made independent of his style. I have never seen a town benefit from less information, have you?

[Elias_the_thief]

Meh.

unvote

.

This vote is pointless right now.

Hey mod, can we get a Vote count please?

Haven't seen one since 191.

[Elias_the_thief]

Things seem to be moving quite slowly. If the game doesn't pick up soon I say we just go for the Csareo lynch.

@Aegor:

Any particular reason for the Kid A vote? Just trying to stir him out of his inactivity?

[Elias_the_thief]

Riddle was one of Csareo's suspects and the target of his vote. He has also been mentioned as suspicious by a few people who strongly suspect Csareo. Having concurrent wagons on the two of them creates a voting dilemma that could be information rich. For example, if either flips scum, we could look for Csareo moving his vote off as the pressure builds or, if Csareo flips scum, we could look for people who said they suspected him more, but rode the Riddle wagon all the way to claim. Etc.

Eh. Pretty much what I expected to hear, though I feel like such an observation is pretty common knowledge among experienced players. What confused me was the lack of transparency. Still doesn't quite make sense to me, because announcing it and watching changes in tack would've been equally useful (at least imo).

I'm down with a Csareo lynch today. Will refrain from voting until he has surfaced, see if he has any last words before L-1.

[Elias_the_thief]

Elias, you seem like one of those people who lies about everything.

If there is a third scum you are it in my mind now.

Interesting turn-around. What gives you that impression?

[Elias_the_thief]

He's certainly on the list but I'm keeping an open mind. I'd like to hear from our lower activity players and replacements before we end the day, and I'd like to see serious wagons too, to create info and hopefully shake out some slips with pressure. There are still scum under the radar here.

This. So much this. This game is about half lurkers at this point. We know nothing substantial about Dybeck, PMysterious, or Kid A at this point. Not really tryna go into D2 with three giant question marks. Although to be honest I suspect that at least one of them will request replacement...and I'm starting to think we may never get a full 13 players in here.

[Elias_the_thief]

VOTE: Kid A

[Elias_the_thief]

So um. Csareo has posted on-site quite recently...

[Elias_the_thief]

Or we can just lynch him since he is scum and get it over with.

First time I've agreed with you in a while. Let's get this over with.

VOTE: Csareo

That's L-1 folks.

[Elias_the_thief]

I think csareo and riddleton are partners, willing to test this by lynching csareo

INTENT TO LYNCH

Whoa. Funny how you respond riiight after I drop L-1. Where have you been the past six pages? What makes you so sure that Csareo is scum, let alone partners with Riddle?

Speaking of Riddle, where's your case on him...?

[Elias_the_thief]

UNVOTE:
Shit just got interesting.

[Elias_the_thief]

I don't have a strong read on him either way. At this point he's active and not doing anything overtly scummy so I'm happy.

[Elias_the_thief]

Its unfortunate, but I can't really get a read on much of anyone with this activity and replacement nonsense. I've got Ythill and Aegor down as town. As I said, nothing solid on beast. Kid A is likely scum. Csareo is either VI or scum. TSO seems...melodramatic. He seems more opposed to Csareo lynch than he should be...

We've got less than half active players, Csareo is clearly detrimental to town even if he is innocent, and he's already mentioned that he has no interest in this game. Lynching him seems a better option than forcing another replacement or letting him just keep doing what he's been doing. So why would his lynch be such a bad thing?

[Elias_the_thief]

I would be down to wagon him, for sure. I started to earlier but got distracted by Csareo ignoring this game and posting in others.

Whether I would prefer to lynch him today depends on his response. He only has 4(?) posts, so its hard for me to want to lynch from what I've seen. How do you feel about a Kid A lynch/wagon?

[Elias_the_thief]

Here's a scary thought; we may not have enough active players for a majority...so if we can't all agree on someone who has some parked votes, we may not even get a lynch today.

[Elias_the_thief]

Screw it. Let's see if a Kid A wagon pulls him out of the woodwork.
VOTE: Kid A

By my count, VC looks like:

Csareo (4): Riddleton, Hephaestus, beastcharizard, Ythill
Kid A (3): dybeck, Aegor, Elias
Hephaestus (1): NicCage,
T S O (1): PMysterious
Aegor (1): Albert B. Rampage
Riddleton (3): Kid A, Csareo, Ythill

[Elias_the_thief]

Yeah, you're probably right about that.

Hey Kid A, how do you feel about getting lynched today? You scum?

[Elias_the_thief]

How about we don't?

How could it possibly hurt?

[Elias_the_thief]

You are disbanding the wagon that I want. That is what it is hurting.

Pressure has done nothing in particular to his posting besides make him less active. I still favor Csareo lynch at this point. Do you really think I don't have time to throw my vote around before the deadline comes? As I see it, my vote is pretty useless on Csareo right now.

[Elias_the_thief]

Because we don't have the numbers to hammer home a lynch right now? We've been hovering around L-1 or -2 for several pages and accomplished nothing.

Why not pressure someone else and gain information at the present moment?

[Elias_the_thief]

Plus if you hadn't noticed, I'm not 100% on Csareo being scum. Just the best lynch at the moment.

[Elias_the_thief]

It works better with multiple votes.

[Elias_the_thief]

Damn, spilled my milk. Now I won't have shit to dunk my cookies in. But no time to cry about it now.

Really, what is this tantrum about? Do you really get this upset when someone has a different opinion than you?

[Elias_the_thief]

I don't get the Kid A wagon; I'm scumreading him, but the majority of votes seem to be to get a wagon, not a lynch. If you tell the guy they're just pressure votes, you're defeating the entire point of your vote.

No, I think he's scummy as hell. The way he showed up right when L-1 happened indicates he's watching the thread. The way he hasn't posted any of his case on Riddleton nor elaborated on his "intent to lynch" tells me he's watching the thread for opportunities to end the day.

[Elias_the_thief]

And not trying to catch scum. Sorry, forgot that part.

[Elias_the_thief]

VOTE: Aegor

I still think his Day Cop thing was suspicious so if we're doing this...

Day cop thing? I remember him using an analogy to explain why a town-Ythill might withhold info, but how is that post scummy?

[Elias_the_thief]

Welcome to the game erryone new.

Anen:

At times I was playing devil's advocate to Beast to get a better read on his tunneling. In part 3 of your notes you seem to have mixed up who I'm talking about. When I say we need to pressure him, I'm referring to Kid A. When I say pressure isn't helping, I'm referring to Csareo wagon, who only showed up after being called out on posting elsewhere, but added nothing despite there being a consistently large wagon on him. I was not advocating a policy lynch on Csareo, unless we have a different definition of policy lynch. Lynching a player who is anti-town is not the same as a policy lynch. A policy lynch would be if a player lied about something and I wanted to lynch them regardless of other play, simply because they lied (commonly referred to as Lynch All Liars).

I really just don't get the case on Aegor...that he made a joke about a day cop and that he ISO'd Kid A? Or am I missing something here?

oka

It would be much more beneficial for everyone if you answered those questions. Throwing your vote at a lurker now that we actually have a ful game is a half assed play for sure. And voting beast because you got pressured makes you look scummier imo.

[Elias_the_thief]

Also, going to be V/LA for the next couple days, as I will be moving back to school.

[Elias_the_thief]

I guess that post was kind of misleading...to clarify:

I will be V/LA the 23rd and 24th

.
Still around today

Aegor, 166 – and I still dislike votes without zero content about cases. FoS again. I don't think ABR's vote for you afterwards was an OMGUS, he might have had the same reason as I've mentioned here for it. Aegor, 176, oh, nonononono, that doesn't make me forget about your former vote! FoS-squared, because you wrote "Not feeling the Csareo wagon." 10 posts before.

Whoaaa, okay. I missed this both in thread and your read through. That's some legitimate wtf-ery right there. I don't really value the other major tell (voting without a reason) particularly highly, since it came pretty early in the game.

As for policy lynching, I guess my understanding is different than yours. By that definition I was at least in part advocating a policy lynch. My thoughts were that he was playing poorly whether he was town or not. So his lynch would either eliminate scum or eliminate an unhelpful player with the side effect of revealing a LOT about the other players since he's been such a huge part of the D1 discussion. So I guess that is kind of a policy lynch. Take it as you will, I thought the lynch would be beneficial to town.

For now I'm happy to hop on the Aegor wagon. I'd like to hear a better explanation for his 180 on Csareo wagon.
VOTE: Aegor. I believe that's

L-2

.

[Elias_the_thief]

-Flipflops a lot. I don't particularly like this; particularly with saying people are not scummy but later changing your mind (especially Aegor).'

I missed Aegor's switch from "not digging the csareo wagon" to voting him like 10 posts later. I generally change my reads when I become privy to new information.

-How can you think someone's "scummy as hell" when they have made 4 posts? I suspect him a little, too, but I wouldn't go all-out and say I'm 100% sure he's scum. How confident are you about Kid A?

He's a scum read. I can't say that he is definitely scum. But the timing of his appearances are pretty damning in my mind.

[Elias_the_thief]

The time stamps say bullshit. You voted Kid on 8/17 at 7:36pm. You commented about ISOing when you were asked about the vote, on 8/18 at 11:18am. Please explain why you waited nearly sixteen hours to make that offhanded comment.

I don't care how many towntells you have in my notes, this is a scum lie like whoa.

I ISOed him afterward as well, and at that point discovered that you could look up two people at the same time. I do not understand why this is difficult to grasp.

Wait. So you ISO'd him....voted...and then ISO'd again? For three posts? That makes little to no sense.

Dybeck gets scum points for his wall and the way he built a strawman on defense,

but the problem with dybeck scum (and it's strange that others' have ignored this) is that his only major "slip" requires Anen to be town.

I'm with you on the wall. Incredibly fence sitty plus a vote that feels like an afterthought. But you lost me on the bolded part. The fact that his wall was so inconclusive, and that he leaves himself both options on Csareo/Anen, is what seems scummy to me.

As a side note, you left both Dybeck and Aegor off your read list. It seems pretty obvious that you read scum on Aegor, but are you voting Dybeck mainly to help move him out of the "everybody else" category, or because he belongs under the scum category?

[Elias_the_thief]

I'm a bit confused as to how you can be down to hammer a player but not to put him at L-1...

[Elias_the_thief]

So you're worried that no one will hammer, even if he doesn't have a lynch-halting claim? Seems a little overcautious. But clearly beneficial to town, so not gonna dwell on it.

I take it you don't place players in your scum list very lightly? Because you seem pretty adamant about Aegor lying, but don't label him scum yet. Which makes me curious what other motivation you think he could have for lying about the ISO thing. In fact, I'm not sure I see any benefit of lying about the ISO thing in the first place...I agree his story makes no sense, but where is the benefit of making that claim as scum?

[Elias_the_thief]

Last post before V/LA...

Tammy: I didn't respond because you said you didn't want to discuss theory. Didn't think the point was particularly important. WIFOM refers to "Wine in front of me" from Princess Bride fame. It basically means that something becomes a null tell due to layers of people trying to out think eachother. Check the wiki for more.

Anen: I unvoted because I wanted an answer from Shadow about why his vote was different. Also because I'm about to be outtie for two days. Ythill's concern with preventing unnecessary claiming is what seems beneficial to town.

[Elias_the_thief]

Whoops, got my game's mixed up. Please ignore.

But the point about Ythill's concern is correct.

[Elias_the_thief]

Officially settled into school. Got a few classes today but will catch up and post once they're over.

[Elias_the_thief]

Yeah, I'm down with the Dybeck lynch. At the worst we get rid of a lurker/active lurker.

VOTE: Dybeck

L-1. You should claim now.



As a side note, I am very interested in how Feirei uses a meta argument in 595 and then claims that they are useless and misleading. Interesting move Feirei.

[Elias_the_thief]

Wait, so you're actually counterclaiming? I thought when you said JK you meant just kidding haha...

Anyhow, yeah. Let's finish this shit.

[Elias_the_thief]

I'm already voting Dybeck, broheim.

[Elias_the_thief]

Yeah I'd say that would have been a scum win. It's possible I'd have caught on to you eventually but it's doubtful and you might have NKed me once Elias' voting habits moved him up my scumlist. Elias is a good example of why I rely on VCA and post density. His behavior was innocent but his actions were quickly changing my mind.

To be fair, you said my behavior on Dybeck wagon earned me town points.