Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over

[ChannelDelibird]

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

VOTE: LlamaFluff

[ChannelDelibird]

let the NK speculation begin

I'd have left CES alive if I were scum. I was looking forward to playing with him.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hello. I've had other priorities this weekend; more from me coming tomorrow. However, I can point out as the post is just above me (PEDIT: not any more; the one from OnionBubs) that I have not made a random vote in this game, and also that in a rare Night-start game, discussing who might have killed who on Night 0 is worth talking about. UT brought up nightkill analysis and I'm happy to be honest about what I would have suggested. It's quite possible that I would have argued against a CES kill and been overruled by buddies... but that's for you to figure out. UT knows me reasonably well, though, so I imagine he's more likely to be able to read a self-meta statement like that from me than you, with whom I've not previously played.

[ChannelDelibird]

Wait, you say you haven't made a random vote in this game?

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

VOTE: LlamaFluff

What is this? Chopped liver?

The only one calling that random is you. I'm clearly reacting to the CES kill and I voted for somebody whom I thought was likelier than some others to be aware of CES's skill and therefore push for a kill on him. It's not

precise

, sure, and Llama isn't the only one who'd know to be wary of CES, but it wasn't a random vote by any means.

Anyway, I'll read up and stuff over this evening.

[ChannelDelibird]

Just about to read the thread in full but just gonna go along with the onion vote right now because Equinox is right: #131 is a classic case of IIoA.

UNVOTE: LlamaFluff
VOTE: onion

[ChannelDelibird]

Spoiler: On nightkill analysis

People that I'm confident would strongly consider killing CES on Night 1: Equinox, LlamaFluff, Untrod Tripod
I would have said GIF but he's actually not as old a player as I thought so it's borderline. He'd probably know enough to suggest him dead even if he hadn't played with him, though.
UT and Equinox get townpoints for considering analysis of the nightkill (I assume that UT's vote on me was in that vein; would be interested to know whether or not he believes me that I wouldn't have wanted to shoot CES as scum).

Spoiler: On prawneater

prawneater's #25 looks town-motivated; I think scum would have talked it out more rather than just get on with a Llama wagon in wake of Equinox's nightkill analysis.

Spoiler: On Derangement

I don't think much of Derangement's #26; it recognises why Equinox's nightkill analysis exists but does not act upon it either way. Dee should really be reconsidering their random vote in light of this. I also think it's weird that Llama picks out GIF for alleged ignoring of the actual consequences of said analysis but didn't mention Derangement doing the same, when GIF had a better excuse for his own response.

Dee, which pronoun do you prefer?

Spoiler: On Bubs

I'm pretty sure Bubs just needs to care less about the difference between L-3 and L-2; the steps between votes like that just aren't as tangible as you seem to think. People react much more strongly to words and tone than the progress of a wagon. The number of votes on a wagon are representative of the quantity of people who suspect that person more than they are of the quality of said suspicions and shouldn't therefore be judged as if targets have to reach a certain level of scumminess before they are allowed to be there.

Spoiler: On my first post, re: Bubs's 124

The only way that opening with "BOOOOOOOOOOO" makes sense is as a reaction to the nightkill. It seems like you're just fresh out of newbie games so consider this a lesson that people don't have to explicitly say that their first vote isn't random for it not to count as random. In fact, given that we are playing in a rare night-start game, I'm surprised that people both expected and promoted random votes. For the record, I never make a "random" vote if there is any better premise on which to base a vote because random votes are the least likely thing to achieve anything pro-town.

a) Choosing arbitrarily from a deliberately selected subset of players is arbitrary in one sense but not the important one (I chose the subset); your arguing this point seems to be more for argument's sake than for actually believing it to be indicative of scumminess on my part.

b) I saw no reason to spoon-feed. I thought "BOOOOOOOOO" would make clear my feelings on the nightkill and eagle-eyed players might spot a correlation with my subsequent vote. I would also have been interested to see if players had asked about my vote in relation to the "BOOOOO", which would have been a more proactive thing for them to do than to make a lame random vote.

Spoiler: On TTH

Why does needing to hear from Futan require TTH to unvote in #90? if TTH has reads on everyone else (#95) he must have at least one scumread in that group, else his reads are worthless, so him not voting for anyone until Futan says anything accomplishes nothing that pursues those reads. Wilfully choosing to delay pursue scumreads is not pro-town.

Spoiler: On LlamaFluff

Llama's #47 is kinda lame; I think GIF's reaction is pretty much what mine would have been if I didn't remember playing with CES, though I guess I'd like confirmation from GIF that he thinks the analysis is valid.

Gut reaction to Llama's disdain for UT's vote is that it's townish; I think he knows it's null for UT but can't quite get his head around the idea that its supposed suboptimality might not be unintentional so still calls him scummy for it but, as he was pushing GIF harder and just being forced to talk about UT instead, it seems like his priorities are in the right place, even if the GIF vote is also lame.

I can buy town-LLama convincing himself to vote UT despite better logic, I guess, but the one part where I struggle is the idea of Llama genuinely thinking that UT being amused by the idea of a hammer on him before he ever posted is specifically more likely to come from scum than town. It's just an obviously amusing idea and I don't think anyone who knows UT at all would read that post as a serious push for such a thing to actually happen.

Summary

I think it's likely that there's at least one scum in the group {Equinox, UT, LlamaFluff, GIF}. I have town-enough reads on the first two so, despite finding some of Llama's attitude quite plausible as town, there's enough from him that makes me quite willing to consider him as the likeliest scum from that group so far. My vote could quite plausibly move back there, though I want to hear more from GIF.

As voted above, onion's IIoA looks like a pretty standard post from scum trying to look busy without actually doing anything. I could also quite happily vote for TTH.

[ChannelDelibird]

a) Just realised I mispronouned you; apologies.
b) That still doesn't explain the lack of getting anything done in the meantime.

[ChannelDelibird]

Cop-out.

[ChannelDelibird]

I have reads on everybody except him

I didn't have any scum reads on anyone else

So you thought everyone else was town?

If that were the case, the following would be true:
a) You'd know that your own reads were wrong and wouldn't be so happy to go along with them
b) You'd damn well have kept your vote on the only person whom you weren't townreading

I call bullshit.

[ChannelDelibird]

It is impossible for you to have a read on every player but one, all of which are town reads, and to believe that those reads are right, unless you believe that there is only one scum in this game.

[ChannelDelibird]

You don't even know what the reads are, so why are you acting like you do?

If you explicitly say that you have reads on everyone but that none of them are scumreads, then either they are all townreads or some are "null" reads, which is just a confession to the absence of an alignment read and therefore not the sort of thing that would lead you to say 'I've sorted everyone else so it's just Futan with whom I need to deal'.

You should tell us your reads on everyone were at the time and whether or not they've changed since then. At the moment, with the information available to me, it's hard not to conclude that you have lied somewhere.

[ChannelDelibird]

The D comes before the B.

Why is being the first person to vote for Llama a "suspicious position" on the wagon? You call it a RVS vote, which is untrue if you actually read what I've written, but if you were right there and it was random, how would that be more likely to come from scum than town?

Your post reads like you didn't read anything of mine that was longer than a couple of sentences.

[ChannelDelibird]

Sidenote: The Llamawagon was CBD(004), Telltale(016), Equinox(017), Prawn(025), Tripod(034).

The suspicious slots on the Llamawagon are held by CBD, Telltale and Equinox.

I mean, this is all redundant because exact position on wagons isn't anywhere near that important, but you definitely flat-out say that my being first on the wagon is suspicious here.

[ChannelDelibird]

you are on the wagon, which is suspicious, but you are in one of the least suspicious seats of the wagon. Why don't you address some pointier points instead.

Some of the points aren't for me, some might take longer to address if I untangled them. I'm at work right now so not doing anything too busy.

Do you disagree that lists are good for scum and bad for town?

As a rule, yes, but the reason I say that you're not reading things I've written is that you wrote that part as if it were contextless ("all reads lists are bad and you're bad") when it was pretty obviously specifically pertaining to my argument with TTH in a way that was important to me (and I do promise to address TTH's reply shortly). There's a reason I asked just her rather than every single person in the game to make a reads list, and if you'd followed my posts there at all closely you'd have known that.

And in 142 you flat out say that you haven't read the thread yet, but you're just going to bandwagon for bandwagon's sake. Don't you think that that sort of thing is harmful to the town?

No, I say I haven't read the thread in full, but that I've scanned enough of that page to see your post and want to vote on it. If I was bandwagoning for its own sake, I'd have either said so or said nothing at all, but I specifically said what about you I found vote-worthy.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hello, I'm here - an afternoon of board games turned into a full day unexpectedly. Full catch up tomorrow or lynch me

[ChannelDelibird]

I guess I kinda dared you to lynch me, didn't I? That's the first time I've failed on that challenge to myself. Life has been kicking my backside for a few days but I'll look over the last few pages tonight.

[ChannelDelibird]

What a weird entrance from Marquis. Hard to see what use this would be to town as a starting point for scumhunting; think it more likely that it's an attempt to look purposeful upon arrival (and well done on pissing that up the wall afterwards).

I like the apology for the drunken housemate from onion a lot more than I liked the original post. He can probably be town

Seriously, I don't believe that Llama thinks UT seriously asked for a hammer and it bugs me that he keeps pushing it here.

In reply to this from TTH: Up until a couple of years ago, I'd have confidently said I prefer town but I've got a bit better at playing scum since and now I really don't mind what alignment I get. The other players are much more likely to affect my enjoyment than my own alignment.

Re: UT, a) thank you for reading that wall so I didn't have to and b) agreed.

I'd like to know who onion thinks are the lurking scum at this point and why he's not naming names to advance the possibility of their lynch, if people don't go with him on Llama.

@UT:

Read on me?

[ChannelDelibird]

@Equinox:

Read on me?

[ChannelDelibird]

I agree that my current vote is outdated. UNVOTE: onion Just looking into the prawneater case at the moment but I'd definitely consider voting for either of the other two, with probably a slight preference for Marquis.

[ChannelDelibird]

if you would consider marquis, you could

I dunno

hammer him

Definitely on the table. Might do it tomorrow.

[ChannelDelibird]

Was coming to this after my shift, promise! Gimme a couple of hours.

[ChannelDelibird]

i provide post links because that's what i do, if you haven't noticed. i don't try to trick people into acting scummy, because that backfires too much. instead, i try to make people act pro-town, which makes them easier to notice if they are scum or not. giving people full information is a way to make them act pro-town when they are lazy.

This is an example of your unbelievable rigidity on 'how things are done' getting in the way of anything getting done. You've parked a god-awful vote on UT because he doesn't conform to your strict standards of pro-town behaviour, and now you say that you provided helpful links 'because that's what you do' when it would clearly be

far

more illuminating for NJAC to give an instinctual response without useful aids, so that we could contrast his behaviour to his predecessor's more transparently. This is obviously anti-town and I presume, given your well-documented objections to such behaviour, that you will be voting for yourself momentarily.

[ChannelDelibird]

Notice how Prawn immediately dismissed (again) my push on him by saying that only I saw things as scummy. Which apart from being a blatant lie (Equinox voted him for similar things, UT appears to have as well, CDB, onion and OB have been calling him scum for the same things) is just a way of actually again dismissing my attacks without really answering them.

I'm going to need you to provide an example of me calling prawneater scum "for the same things". Granted, I've not been here for a couple of days but I just scanned my iso for references to prawn and I am not seeing what you claim that I said.

[ChannelDelibird]

I kind of really like prawneater's 476. I'm pretty happy with him as town enough for Today, at least, and it definitely makes me want to consider an snscompt vote.

While I'm not certain enough to say 'these three are the scumteam', I think my vote Today is going to one of sns, onion and Llama. I probably most want to vote for Llama of the three but I'm mindful of the fact that he's certainly someone who thinks quite differently to me in general and it's not impossible that that's why he's reaching conclusions that I personally just can't comprehend at all. But it does

feel

wrong, and it does seem like he's not being entirely truthful (re: me on prawn, for example).

I've cooled on TTH a bit; I could see that being just me being wrong.

[ChannelDelibird]

Onion, a UT lynch isn't going to happen Today. You should vote for somebody else.

[ChannelDelibird]

NJAC isn't out of the question but I got a slight townread from the manner in which Marquis tried to catch up before finally admitting that it wasn't going to work out. Llama, as I say, is definitely on the table.

Normally I would be all about having my vote down on someone at all times but I just want to see a little more before I decide to push one wagon over another. I'd really like to see where onion votes next, for one thing. I won't be on the sidelines for very much longer, either way.

[ChannelDelibird]

There's 2 days. The time for wait-and-see has expired.

VOTE: LlamaFluff

A lot can happen in two days.

[ChannelDelibird]

I can no longer explain Llama away as just being a kinda different player to me.

VOTE: LlamaFluff

[ChannelDelibird]

I can see enough of a pattern to Llama's posts that he's at least had this in mind for a little while, regardless of the strength of the heat on him, it's such a godawful plan that I have to give him enough credit to say that he surely wouldn't be banking on it like this as town. It just doesn't sit right with me, like too many things about Llama in this game. He remains my preferred lynch.

[ChannelDelibird]

@CBD, now that i slept on it, Llama's plan isn't entirely terrible. Trackers have a hard time finding scum, because there's usually only 1 active at night.

Depends on the setup. Given night start, it's likelier that we only have two scum, in which case the chances of both having something to do at night could be higher than if there were three.

also being one-shot, pulling off a scum find would be rather difficult. But if someone VT claimed and was apparently believed, it seems that they'd feel safe enough to be the active one if they were scum.

Not if Llama drops a bunch of hints/gets himself run up for being weird so as he has to claim tracker, thus tipping himself off to the scum. At any rate, Llama's framing this as trying to strengthen a town claim rather than catch out scum claiming VT.

it seems like a better waste of the power than to target someone you suspect and hope for the best.

Given how seeing a player definitively target a dead person at night

is

strong proof of their scumminess but how seeing a player not target anyone for one night

isn't

strong proof of their towniness - not to mention that Llama should be good enough at this game to narrow down the suspect pool somewhat - I reject this notion. Finding scum by targeting someone you suspect is also less likely to risk being caught in a situation where people suspect you and your 'cleared' player of colluding with each other and being left alive as mislynch bait, which could absolutely happen to a tracker who doesn't have any shots left and is suspected as Llama has been virtually all day.

I'm also kind of uncomfortable with the idea of Llama wanting to get a VT claim out there that he trusts enough to seek to verify (he does say 'or strong VT read' but looking for that is also problematic IMO) ... isn't that rather encouraging a bad wagon or two? To push people he might not think are scum? This is the part of it that I feel is most attributable to just Llama thinking differently to me but, man, I don't love it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Equinox's paranoia seems town; I can identify with plenty of it. I might just be that I'm a bit more stubborn about staying on here. Overall, though, I just have a hard time putting this together as a coherent example of a town player at work.

I wouldn't cry if we got an NJAC lynch but it seems based on a lot less.

[ChannelDelibird]

Acknowledging that Day has begun and gratefully accepting the need to wait for Llama as I'm ill anyway.

[ChannelDelibird]

Ballsacks, etc. Cold is gone; post in a bit once I've resolved a modding commitment elsewhere.

[ChannelDelibird]

Right, I'm reading up now. On shift atm but whatever, kinda want to tell my job to shove it today anyway. Sorry for being so lame.

[ChannelDelibird]

I think I believe Llama more than I did Yesterday, for reasons I am unable to articulate to myself, let alone you.

Kind of want to lynch onion. snscompt feels scummier than prawneater.

More detail on this when I'm not at work; just wanted to get some feelings out there now rather than later.

[ChannelDelibird]

Good Morning. I'll post when I'm in less of a foul mood.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hey guys, I had no idea I'd been gone this long. Team Mafia has warped my sense of mafia time. I'm catching up now and will do a bunch of posts, but FYI I'm talking to pj about a temporary or permanent replacement while I'm away at the UK meet from the 10th-17th.

[ChannelDelibird]

First reaction to the Equinox kill after Llama's death is that it feels like a kill to keep town on its current trajectory, which makes me think that onion might be town as one of the more constant background lynch options for a while.

[ChannelDelibird]

-=Cogito List=- (017)
ChannelDelibird
Equinox (town)
GuyInFreezer (town)
LlamaFluff (town)
Untrod Tripod

That's a point against CBD right there.

Still wouldn't have killed CES on Night 1 for fun reasons.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm concerned about Derangement just because it feels like almost nobody ever has expressed any concern about Derangement, with bussing discouraged if there are only two scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

The way in which sns replaced out bugs me. He paints a picture when he leaves of just not being connected to the game, but his early posts, in which he got adamant and sweary and passionate about stuff, don't seem to jive with his claimed later mentality of reading but never being up to posting. I'm not super-excited by GC's coming in and rattling hard on onion and Llama, either - the case posts are impressively put together but I find the Llama stuff relatively unconvincing (accepting that hindsight is involved, obviously), as if GC thinks that all we need is the push of a long and well-formatted post to get us to finally do the things we've been threatening for a while.

That's part of why GC feels different to me here than he did in my most recent experience of playing with him, as town in Murder on the Oriental Express. I'm struggling to articulate quite how so, but I guess I'd put it as that I'm not getting quite the same level of conviction from him here as I did there.

The vote on me then immediate change-of-mind switch to TTH, though, is something that gives me pause. That feels like something that's less likely to come from scum, who are likely to spend longer deciding what they want to do before they post it.

[ChannelDelibird]

UT feels solidly town to me. While it could be that Llama got unlucky in picking whichever scum didn't do the kill, UT's speculation about the kills being an indictment of his reads feels doesn't feel like scum doing a self-conscious bit to fuck with us.

[ChannelDelibird]

EBWOP

UT feels solidly town to me. While it could be that Llama got unlucky in picking whichever scum didn't do the kill, UT's speculation about the kills being an indictment of his reads doesn't feel like scum doing a self-conscious bit to fuck with us.

[ChannelDelibird]

as far as i can tell, the primary lynch reason against TTH is lurking, but we have a far more prolific lurker than she. If we can get a CBD replacement rolling quickly, and they are even half as good as GC at replacing, i'd have no problems with a policy+kinda sorta scummy lynch on TTH.

Er, what? One person is lurking worse than another, so we should replace the worst lurker and policy lynch the second-worst? What?

What?

Either lurking is scummy, in which case you should want to lynch the fuck out of me (or even my replacement!), or it's not and you shouldn't want either of us lynched, or want both of us replaced, or something.

[ChannelDelibird]

I guess a bunch of people have started to express suspicion of Derangement after all, btw.

[ChannelDelibird]

I've spent the last few minutes trying to figure out TTH and I'm struggling to pin down how I feel. I might need to reread the game in full, but I'm wary of confirmation bias. I went back to have a look at my early suspicion of her and I feel like I was onto something; her final response to it feels like it's put together in retrospect to fit things together rather than truly making sense as a natural explanation for her behaviour.

She also goes in oddly hard on Llama at the start of Day 2 and then kinda disappears to let us (y'all, I suppose, if I'm being honest) get on with it, until she gets wagoned herself. The sticking point for me is a post like this, on which I feel like I should be able to get a handle as coming from some combination of (town who genuinely believes she's going to die and needs to pass on what she can before she dies/town who believes there's a chance of saving herself but that she might need to deliberately towntell a bit to swing it back away from her/scum who genuinely believes she's going to die and wants to set up some WIFOM for Day 3 on a player in Llama whom she knows is town/scum who believes that a genuine-looking 'final words' thing can swing the lynch back to Llama). But I can't decide which I think is more likely, beyond a suspicion that the first of the four seems to fit the least well.

I guess I'm probably looking at either a GC or TTH vote Today. I will probably look at Derangement in more detail later, but I think I would be a bit surprised if there weren't at least one scum in (GC, TTH).

[ChannelDelibird]

I was sort of hoping to hear more from people over the weekend but think I'm more interested in this right now.

VOTE: Green Crayons

[ChannelDelibird]

Hello, checking in from uk meet, looks like a temp replacement probably not worth it at this point but I won't have time to contribute properly before friday

We need to start proposing scumteams when we talk about scummy people. Only so many combinations available

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh man, I was just about to dive back into this and I definitely had those two at the top of my list but obviously never quite had the time to hammer that out properly. Well done, scum, who played a pretty good game. Activity, as ever, is important to town wins.