Mini 1699 - #swag wars: THE empire strikes back (swaggedout)

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god dammit why did this have to open while i was at work.

I guess I'll wade through the inevitable 400 pages when i get back.

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Implosion - in case you didn't see it in the sign ups, I'm so happy you joined this game. Please be town too.

Hello . I am.

Anyway. Reading.

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Layla/fferyllt are town. And vinkah.

A preemptive excuse for doing nothing at all. Scummy.

False.
A sarcastic excuse for doing nothing for six hours, then spamming the thread.

Wicked is quite possibly town.

VOTE: Anen

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I don't have any strong inclination towards notscience being town but I am willing to sheep

popular opinion

fferyllt on it for the time being.

And Tammy. You have some towntelling to do.

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Beyond that I'm not sure if anyone will know why that post is far far more likely to come from town me.

That'll do for now.

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I think Tammy towntold in what I quoted.

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Ah.

That kind of self-commentary is very characteristic of Tammytown from my albeit limited experience with her. I'm sure she's gotten better at faking it as scum over the past year. But it seems genuine enough to me, implying that there is a legitimate reason to believe that she is town based on her first post without stating that reason in that way feels like an awkward thing to fake as scum.

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I'm happy with my anen vote/the anen wagon.

As a general rule about RedCoyote, he's scummy. Always, in every game. If Nacho has a reputation for reading him then I'm willing to sheep Nacho until like day 3ish WRT him.

There's a good town core for now in {me, Tammy, Layla, ffery, Vinkah} allowing notscience as well if ffery says so.

Wicked is also a person that I remember just seeing as generally scummy when he was town. His play so far vaguely reminds me of his town play in the distant past. I decently like Nacho's point for town-RC in 154.

That already puts the lynch pool in my mind right now at {Anen, Gnomeo, Cheetory, pieguy, Nacho}.

pieguy is saying a lot of things, and I think I'll probably get a better read in due time. Gut kind of says cheetory is town. We're gonna go with the scumteam as Anen/Gnomeo/Nacho for now.

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Also this whole "everyone trust nacho's read on RC" thing is giving me the heebiejeebies

Its not so much the people saying it are its just like "inb4 scumteam whiteknights each other"

IMO it's not supposed to be a long-term thing, more of an "eh, we can put resolving this off until later" thing. Plus I actually do like nacho's reason that he gave, I'm not just blindly following. RC is just... idk. I don't remember if I've played with him extensively outside of swagtown but his posts have often just lacked any radiation of towntells like some others *cough Tammy cough* and most players in general.

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If we could get competing wagons on Anen and Gnomeo I would be quite happy.

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Eh. That seems like more of an individual thing to me.

It could be the case that they're both scum and Anen just happens to be low on time right now and Gnomeo is scumlurking (or also happens to be low on time).

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I probably shouldn't have signed up for this game. But I when I saw the names, I wanted in. Should be about a week before I'll have more time though. I'll try and post as much as I can.

Mkay. Your post on this page is a good start.

Re: Anen, a few things. Decrying the wagon that haunts you and ignoring everyone unrelated to the wagon is more of a scum reaction than a town reaction. There are also some very awkward (though not necessarily scummy) statements in his most recent post:

Even if you don't believe me now, you will do so after my flip.

Why will we? Because you'll flip town? Just because you're town, doesn't mean we'll share your opinion on your wagon.

Generally speaking, it's very clear for me that my wagon gained momentum because some scums wanted to find a player to jump on who has no real allies in the game.

Why is this clear to you? It's only two days into the game. Wagons can gain momentum at this stage for all sorts of stupid reasons, from scum wanting an early wagon on town, to town wanting an early wagon on anybody, to new players happening to randomly vote together, etc.
This conclusion is pulled out of thin air. It's a purely defensive reaction to the wagon, almost an OMGUS-like reaction. And it ties hand-in-hand with the next line in his post...

Just look at the reasoning along those votes! Just look at the post amount I've made so far. Is it really legit?

Yes! In fact, there are at least *seven* people who have either voted you or expressed suspicion! You know for a fact that many of them must be town, and townies expressing suspicion towards you are doing so for genuine (if possibly not correct) reasons. So stop throwing broad suspicion on the people on your wagon. You should be able to read people based on things other than just their behavior towards you.

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I'm also gonna personally add Cheetory to my town pile for now officially. I like 195-196 a lot.

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Wicked.
You must have realized that I'm without any allies in this game, however, plenty of players are after me because of little to none things.
At this point noone I think would care about my thoughts. If I lived till Tomorrow, it won't change. The scums will keep me around as an easy mislynch as far as they can. Unless I get investigated.

Again. Compare the sheer amount of my content with the amount of votes and fos-es. Many of those arrived while I was not posting at all.

Of course things like that should have been pointed out by someone else and you may believe them.

Also. I'm from mobile and off soon.

We're experienced players.

The game is literally two days in.

If you act town it is more than possible that the wagon on you could dissolve in a matter of hours. I don't give a shit if you don't have "allies" right now, that's because your opening was not very townish. If you're town, act like it.

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Unvote

I want to see what Anen does in this game when he is given more space.

VOTE: Gnomeo

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Actually, I'm going to do something else.

Unvote

VOTE: pieguyn

This might be the wagon of the future. We'll see.

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@implosion, you’re sheeping Nacho’s read on RC but you think Nacho’s scum?

Two things are at work here.

One, there's a low a priori probability that they're both scum assuming a single 3-player scumteam (11/13 choose 3, or about 4%. That probability is a bit higher for any given person if they assume that they are town but w/e.) So

for the time being

until things become clearer I'm somewhat willing to sheep the opinion of someone who is known to be good at reading someone that I know I am bad at reading.

Two, I liked Nacho's reasoning. That reasoning may be valid even if Nacho does happen to be scum with RC as town.

I also don't actually really have an opinion on Nacho yet, that me calling the scumteam thing was mostly sarcasm.

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I liked Gnomeo's 192. While felt abrasive, it felt town because it reads like he isn't trying to forge the read even though the tammy accusation looked weird.

I am somewhat inclined to agree. I kind of absentmindedly voted gnomeo because of the competing wagons thing and then realized i didn't feel that way so strongly anymore.

I do want to look at pieguy more closely though. Possibly tonight.

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Also, Layla, with respect to a couple of the things you're calling people out for, I need to be convinced of the potential for scum motivation behind them (not saying it isn't there, just that I want to be convinced more.) Specifically Tammy not switching her vote (although I'm not sure if you're saying that there's scum motivation behind that at all), and the Anen flail as a whole. I agree it looks like he's just throwing mud rather than trying to find scum and as I type this sentence I'm actually convincing myself. meeeh. Idk. I have a bad habit of always wanting to townread people for whatever they're doing under pressure no matter what it is. Idk. I do want to see what Anen does with less pressure though now that he's essentially accepted his lynch. I think it'll be decently telling.

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omg tammy srsly just vote

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Looks like: "Gnomeo is getting some heat, I'll vote there. Oh wait, I just said he had a good post, I can't vote him. Quickly, let's vote someone else."

I didn't say it was a good post. I said it was a good start towards being more active. You're taking my quote out of context.

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If it wasn't a good post, then why didn't you want to vote me anymore?

Eh. I guess I did think it was a slightly townish post, but that isn't what I meant when I was saying it was a good start? I think I'm just phrasing things poorly. Iirc when I said it was a good start I didn't have a good read on the post itself yet, and later decided it was townish.

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I think I like Nacho's last slew of posts as townish. I don't have a whole lot more salient points to make right now though. I am interested to see how Cheetory responds to Nacho.

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riiiiight...
so when did you decide this?

I don't remember exactly when. I'll often tend to skim games multiple times.

I feel like my reads have been slowly (read: quickly) decaying since Anen vanished. I actually have no idea who I want to vote for right now (which should also answer Wicked). My vote right now is doing nothing and the only thing that I feel like it could do that I could potentially want is it being on Anen but like I said I'd prefer he have less pressure atm.

If someone (really anyone who feels like it) wants to give me their opinion on like, a #1 thing I should look at/reevaluate right now, that'd be nice.

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I chose to vote pie because pie seemed like the kind of player who should have been towntelling harder but wasn't. I then intended to look into that more to see if there was actually anything to that, and neglected to do so/every time I started things just looked null.

Idk. I read Cheeto as town. I think his talking about himself is very genuine, and some of the points that have been criticized for inconsistency (like Wicked criticizing the "i want to scream right now" line) felt very consistent to me. He said he was going to try to be patient at the beginning of the post, wrote a giant-ass post, then posted another post 25 minutes later. That feels consistent.

The way he's talking about how he's going to towntell while taking ownership of the fact that he's being read as scummy reads to me as being genuine. I don't think he's scum.

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where the hell are scum hiding in ths player list.

that is a god damn good question.

notscience is one of the people who I never really had an actual good reason to townread, and I'm still making up my mind on pieguy (although surprise surprise, my initial reading of pie's cheeto arguments was null...) but I at least have theoretical room between the two of them I guess and Anen for all of my real townreads to be town unless I'm forgetting someone and actually have more room.

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Idk. I read Cheeto as town. I think his talking about himself is very genuine, and some of the points that have been criticized for inconsistency (like Wicked criticizing the "i want to scream right now" line) felt very consistent to me. He said he was going to try to be patient at the beginning of the post, wrote a giant-ass post, then posted another post 25 minutes later. That feels consistent.

The way he's talking about how he's going to towntell while taking ownership of the fact that he's being read as scummy reads to me as being genuine. I don't think he's scum.

I don't agree with this. I think it's likely he would start playing like this regardless of what his alignment here is: town-him would realize he's having an off game and step back, scum-him would see a bunch of people pushing him and go into damage control mode. taking ownership of the fact you're being read as scummy is a really easy thing to fake.

I'm not saying he might not do this as scum. I'm saying I think the way he's doing it reads as genuine in tone, consistent, etc. Sure it could be faked but it doesn't look like it is to me.

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Implosion: Why are you voting pieguyn? He's one of my strongest townreads at this point.

I've basically answered this; I don't actually have anywhere that I want my vote to be right now, and pie is one of the few people that I haven't townread yet.

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I'm perfectly willing to oblige that.

Unvote

VOTE: notscience

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Scarab was a DRK alt.

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I mean, it's definitely not just you two. I felt that way, and my sentiments were mimicked by Vinkah as well in 447.

I think the last game I played with this kind of player list (that is, swagtown pt 1) I was easily engaged because I had a very solid scumread who I pushed consistently for pretty much the entirety of day one until they were lynched. This time, I think it all sort of goes back to Anen. I was engaged because I was pushing/interacting with Anen. Anen disappeared. My engagement whittled away.

In a sense it's almost less weird to be disengaged in this kind of crowd. It's so easy to just get lost in a sea of people who are good enough to towntell actively as either alignment towntelling as both alignments. I remember (just because it's so strongly in my head) the last day of swagtown, when we were trying to track down the last scum (who wound up being fonz), it was really difficult to stay focused because every lead kept going to shit.

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It's probably just time for this to happen.

VOTE: Anen

That's L-1.

Idk what to make of Anen's most recent post, but I feel like this is just the correct lynch at this point given the claim and ~apathy~. I think more information to work with will help fix the overarching feeling of meh that has been discussed.

Vinkah mentioned agreeing with me on this, but I'm also not sure why there's still speculation about multiball, although I guess it's mostly just Anen's post. I don't feel like we can get information about the setup from a broad feeling of the day dragging on or whatever. Good scum will be able to fake real scumhunting regardless of whether or not it's multiball.

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I think my reads at the moment look something like this.

Town: ffery; vinkah; tammy.
Also town, but somewhat less strong: wicked; nacho; cheeto; redcoyote.
Not quite as strong a townread as the previous category but I don't really want to put him in the next category: gnomeo.
Either never was town or not as strong as before: layla; anen; pie; notscience. Although I might be able to be convinced to put pie in a category higher. Maybe.

I've been spiraling into a lurking spree. I do still want an anen lynch. The lack of a counterwagon is just indicative of how indecisive this town is; no one seems to have a lasting scumread that garners significant attention to the point where it becomes a long-lasting wagon. This is further impacted by the lurking question marks of Layla and notscience.

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Also since I never explicitly said it before last post I guess I should say Layla is in that last category pretty much solely because of not having seen much lately.

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Have we played together? I played a game that you modded back in the day (in which I was scum), but I don't remember any games we played.

Wicked I haven't looked at as closely as I probably should but he's in vinkah's top tier and what i've read closely looks pretty good so I'm willing to put him in the town category.

I would describe your play (ffery) so far as very stereotypically obvtown. You could be scum playing really well in theory but you've just been giving logical thought processes, have been actively facilitating scumhunting amongst everyone, have been consistent enough, etc.

I kind of skimmed (or barely skimmed) nacho's posts since he made 9 of them in a row... if he made a case on ffery then i'll go back and look a bit more.

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Or maybe I misread cheeto's post and it's anen's ffery case. Will look at that.

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Oh god those are old. I don't remember those games at all except hunter, and you apparently died n1 there. I also went to page 4/5 of your topics list looking for games, and all of them are apparently on page 5 <_<.

The only salient point I can glean from Anen is basically ffery is acting differently when she should be acting similarly in response to similar play, but similar ≠ identical, etc.

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Gnomeo would be a strange scumkill. But I doubt it'll be particularly productive to speculate about.

I want to try this direction first, for now.

VOTE: notscience

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RC, what in that notscience/ffery exchange makes you think notscience-town?

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Redirection of any kind is explicitly non-normal, iirc.

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I really wish I had more to say :/. The people that I have as stronger townreads are still townreads (this includes RC who I still think is likely town). The people that I need to hear more from I still need to hear more from.

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Anen was lynched d1 and flipped town.

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I don't think anyone trusts me on Mafiascum, Wicked.

Nevertheless,

VOTE: Vinkah
That's not 100×100 pixels.

in every game ive played on mafiascum, i found an opening post that made my gut go nuts. sometimes i ended up TRing them later but it was scum every time

this is that post

VOTE: Aneninen

You need to know of any claimed night actions, but you don't need to check the OP for dead players and alignments? Hmm...

Are you scum?

This is actually a pretty decent point. Asking for some information but not looking at related easy-to-find information displays a lot of incongruousness.

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Are we all going to just ignore how forced S-S's response to my post was, and how RC isn't reading any of my posts, yet has seemed unsure of me?

Or..

I don't think his reaction looked that forced in light of his opening giving a view of a player very centered around wanting to surface known information, or something like that. But I am willing to wagon him over it. If others are. Or if it leads to any chance of an actual goddamn wagon.

VOTE: Soft-Spoken

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(and i don't count the boon wagon partially because it's only two votes and partially because i don't like it, but etc.)

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turns out

TURNS OUT

when a wagon is forming on you

and several people have agreed that things you've done are scummy

"this logic fails very hard" is not a valid defense!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So please, do spell it out for stupid ol' Wicked and I, and feel free to facedesk in the process.

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@RC I looked at your vinkah post when it was posted, just went back and looked at it again, and I don't think I see the post you quoted as being as disingenuous as you do. I also do personally just tend to focus more on posts that give me townvibes than posts that give me scumvibes (granted that's mostly because the former is much much more common but I digress).

SS has yet to towntell.

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do you have enough experience with SS to know when he town tells?

To Tammy and whoever else asked something like this (ffery I think): that's not what I meant, I just meant to draw a comparison between him and the feeling that everyone is towntelling.

What don't you like about the Boon wagon?

I thought cheeto was town.

tammy was rather waffly. hmmmm

Now, I'm not going to say that Tammy is the *most* waffly player that I know.

But I will say that her playstyle goes well with syrup.

i always open games in a superficially scummy manner to try and attract a bad wagon. in fact, in our last game ffer was suspicious of me because i didnt.

:eyeroll:

Unfortunately you have that pompous ass play style in which you decide to act scummy as fuck to trap people who think your scummy ass behavior is scummy like oh i acted like scum to trap people who will think i'm scum. it makes things unpleasant and frustrating as fuck.

yeeep

Implosion is probably scum and I don't want to see it which is

Nope. Sadly. Ish. I really was hoping to roll a town role pm in this game when I saw the player list but I feel like I would be enjoying this more as scum with all of the general opacity.

I will be more engaged in this game next week, with decent confidence. This week is just really damn hard. But for now I still don't see anything from SS that strongly makes me think town (the self-referential stuff does but only weakly). I also do want to pressure notscience more. The response to pie feels like it leaves a lot to be desired and I'd like to see what pie thinks.

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Speaking of which that one post from pie towards notscience felt pretty genuine. Some townpoints for that.

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he's an experienced player at EM. In the last game we played, when he and Regfan exchanged resumes, Regfan was duly impressed.

Oh my.

I think at this point I would rather wagon notscience than soft-spoken, if for no other reason than I think soft-spoken is going to be giving better tells as time goes on. I do phrase that intently though because it needs to be a wagon and not just a vote because I want pressure.

Wicked, apologies if you've answered this once or a million times already, but why is notscience in your townpile?

p-edit: why is your townread shored up, ffery?

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Well bleh. 1024 is townish.

Idk. Some people have made cases or points on people being scum but very few of those have really been convincing to me. I more want people to give me reasons why the towntells that I (or others) have seen in their chosen scumread are bad. Like vinkah for instance.

Like honestly there's a part of me that actually wants to be convinced that vinkah is scum. Because one of the biggest towntells I've had from him is that his apathy felt real but I know that's the kind of thing that someone like me would do as scum because I would know it would be something that I would be doing as town. Idk. Maybe vinkah is scum.

Someone convince me of something <_>. I want to hear some sort of in-depth cases or compelling arguments. I feel like most of this game has been back-and-forths that haven't left me feeling much strong. I want something more substantial to digest. Even my strong townreads right now I feel like I could be wrong on.

bleh.

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Oddly enough the more I internally mull things over the more I feel like my best townread was Cheeto.

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I have a theory about that kill I really hope is true, but not interested in talking about it now, just making this post for possible future bragging rights.

I feel like it's at the point where it's more salient to ask "why do you think X is town?" rather than "what do you think of X" but I digress.

Two things from nacho make me think town. One is 764. The other is as I mentioned at the time the slew of posts starting at 392 which felt like genuine scumhunting.

He's one of my less solid reads right now I'd say. I think if put on the spot I'd cite anen/ffery/tammy/maybe redcoyote as the ones who at this instant I would say with some nontrivial degree of confidence are town.

But that could change in the next eleven seconds.

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oh. I Q+'d that post while isoing him. Ho hum.

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I have a theory about that kill I really hope is true, but not interested in talking about it now, just making this post for possible future bragging rights.

Anen because cheeto.

Cheeto because I feel like looking at all of my townreads most of them are because they felt like they had genuine scumhunting but Cheeto felt like he had genuine reactions. All of his arguing with tammy that I read felt legitimate. It felt like it wasn't being made up and his feelings towards it were genuine and not feelings that he would have genuinely had as scum. His talking about his own game also felt very genuine and unforced. I don't remember the specifics but I remember it happening. In general I think more of the things that I was townreading him for feel like they'd be harder to fake than my other townreads.

It's late so I might be misremembering parts of this or forgetting other reasons but I think that's the gist of it.

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Did i say anen.

boon.

Tired. Late. Bleh.

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I do phrase that intently though because it needs to be a wagon and not just a vote because I want pressure.

if you want a pressure wagon, why do you explicitly state it? dontyathink legitimate pressure is nullified if the target knows that the wagon is for pressure? organic wagons give actual pressure

Different actions can elicit different reactions.

I've always found that as both town and scum, having votes on me pressures me (or even annoys me) enough that I want to become more active/refine my reads (either faked or genuine), mostly regardless of the reasons for those votes. I think there's still a psychological aspect of pressure in a wagon even if it's explicitly stated to be pressure because it still can lead to a lynch if you react poorly to it, as typically the people on the wagon will be people who are at that point willing to lynch you.

This is especially true in my towngames. In games where I have been less active or disconnected from the game, a wagon on me usually kicks me enough that I feel the need to do alignment-indicative things. I want notscience to do alignment-indicative things.

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Wicked, apologies if you've answered this once or a million times already, but why is notscience in your townpile?

I think you’re the first to ask actually.

Reasons why I’m town reading him-
-Early game felt carefree and very relaxed
-I actually like how several/most/all of his votes have been blatantly opportunistic
-His night kill speculation at the start of today felt genuine
-His contributions generally feel like town interest rather than scum obligation, not sure how to explain why I get that feeling

Two things from nacho make me think town. One is 764.

Can you explain why you're town reading that post?

Also, I think the reactions that you’re town reading Cheeto for are exactly the kind of reactions that he would try to fake as scum…

I feel like your first reason for townreading notscience is the kind\ of things that scum in a high-caliber game will HAVE to fake to have any chance at survival. An experienced player in a game with a player list like this will stick out like a sore thumb if they have a meta of acting carefree early in the game but don't. Opportunism feels eh and the nkspec didn't feel particularly genuine to me.

I townread that post from Nacho because he would have essentially had to be innovative to make it as scum. As town it's certainly possible for him to make that post. As scum, he would not have any theories about the night kill (because information), so he would have to explicitly decide to lie about having a theory about it, which seems significantly less likely to happen to me. In general I see posts like that, which scum would have had to go 'out of their way' to make, as pretty strong towntells depending on context/etc.

[implosion]

Let's vote wicked.

Wicked is good.

Give me literally any reason whatsoever to and then maybe but still probably not

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I mean, yes? I don't think I've really genuinely been confident in that kind of player's alignment in a long time (granted I also haven't played mafia in a long time, but etc). "That kind of player" meaning the kind of player who has played enough to get a grip on their own meta. I don't think there really are a whole lot of very strong tells that can be gleaned from the play of a player like that. Ultimately my gut says that that post from nacho would be relatively unlikely to come from scum. It feels like an awkward thing to fake. Like I said, I do have a tendency to townread posts like that in general, but it is a case-by-case basis kind of thing, and my gut says this case reads town. There's an element of wifom, but I think that the thought processes that would have led to that being posted by town nacho in that tone at that time in that context are more likely to have occurred than the thought processes that would have had to occur for it to have been posted by scum nacho.

And most things will be seen as either towntells or scumtells by different people in different metas in different moods... all things considered, I do think that post is more likely to come from town than scum. You can disagree with me and you can try to dissuade me but I still do think that. I don't think it strongly enough to try to actively convince others of it.

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EG take and replace night kill spec for scumhunting. both are things that scum wont naturally have theories on because "information".

you are essentially TRing someone for a post that is as easily faked as someone saying that they have a fos but dont want to out it yet.

What do you find to be a better paradigm for scumhunting then? Pretty much any tell *CAN* be faked. It's a case-by-case thing. The fact that I tend to townread posts like that in general is more of an intuition that posts like that will empirically come from scum less often than town. I might be wrong about that intuition.

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I agree that proof is a heavy burden, which is why I see things in terms (very loosely) of probabilities. I think that nacho's post was more probable to have occurred from town-nacho than from scum-nacho. I don't agree that it says nothing.

Incidentally my relying more on that than on what you describe (which I still do use as well) may come from my general playstyle as scum. I'll relatively rarely go out of my way to do single posts or actions that are supposed to be dropping towntells (as Nacho's post would be if he's scum), or actively stop to think to myself "hm, what would I be thinking here if I were town." I take a more natural approach of mostly genuinely scumhunting from the pool of players and modifying my reads as minimally as possible from what I think my reads would genuinely be if I were town. Because of that I can replicate a genuine thought process decently well as scum. Obviously I do modify what my reads would be somewhat (I might be more willing to join an advantageous wagon, etc) but the reasoning behind my reads and the general flow of my play mostly comes from a genuine place. I might project that on to other players or see it as relatively unlikely that they'll make out-of-the-way posts like that because I don't tend to.

How familiar are you with my play? I am somewhat curious about a more reasoned explanation of your scumread on me.

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who was it that was partially voting me because of layla? reasons why you thought layla was scummy? i realise im not capable of reading layla from an objective point of view... but to me she was quite obviously being the stubborn, merciless, and arrogant town archetype d1.... the "ima carry this game to ez town win gg" kinda self importance... it just reeks town so hard... especially being that the wagon was on town.

Yeah. Myself included in this, a lot of people thought this, and then she lurked and lurked and everyone's townreads on her faded because a lot of other people were becoming widely viewed as town.

My vote will somewhat likely change when I get back from work.

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I feel like your first reason for townreading notscience is the kind\ of things that scum in a high-caliber game will HAVE to fake to have any chance at survival. An experienced player in a game with a player list like this will stick out like a sore thumb if they have a meta of acting carefree early in the game but don't.

That is exactly how I feel about

your

reasoning for town reading Cheeto...

Yes, I was trying to draw that comparison. I don't feel that way about my reasoning on Cheeto but I do feel that way about your reasoning on notscience.

I townread that post from Nacho because he would have essentially had to be innovative to make it as scum. As town it's certainly possible for him to make that post. As scum, he would not have any theories about the night kill (because information), so he would have to explicitly decide to lie about having a theory about it, which seems significantly less likely to happen to me. In general I see posts like that, which scum would have had to go 'out of their way' to make, as pretty strong towntells depending on context/etc.

Keep in mind: there's a possibility that Nacho is scum that didn't kill Gnomeo.

I realized this and was thinking that he probably would just assume it was a vig kill if that's the case but I suppose he also would have to explain his own kill's lack of going through and that could actually come from scum. So in that light I guess it is mitigated significantly as being a potential towntell.

[implosion]

Okay. SS's opening was annoying. This is mildly infuriating.

Are you planning to play the game, Boon?

[implosion]

Convince me.

[implosion]

As soon as I start getting engaged in the game a third of the player list disappears :/.

[implosion]

rc/nacho/ns/pie haven't posted in about 48 hours each.

[implosion]

Unvote

Been/still watching TI5 all day. Will get to this after it.

[implosion]

I'm willing to help with this.

VOTE: RC

[implosion]

VOTE: Nacho

My bigger reason for townreading him is bad. This is kind of something I want to feel out. I don't really like an RC vote right now. Would rather get a better feeling for nacho.

[implosion]

VOTE: Nacho

My bigger reason for townreading him is bad. This is kind of something I want to feel out. I don't really like an RC vote right now. Would rather get a better feeling for nacho.

Why do you think I could be scum?

Because you're a player in the game who hasn't flipped?

[implosion]

VOTE: Nacho

My bigger reason for townreading him is bad. This is kind of something I want to feel out. I don't really like an RC vote right now. Would rather get a better feeling for nacho.

Why do you think I could be scum?

Because you're a player in the game who hasn't flipped?

Oh boo, I meant what in my posts is scum motivated >.>

Eh, nothing in particular. Although that might change if I read them more closely.

I just think you'll probably one of the more useful people to engage with right now and I don't yet feel like putting in the large amount of effort to determine the best person to vote for.

[implosion]

Didn't have the opportunity to engage last night because it was 3 am and I was going to sleep, and I've been out all day.

Reading.

[implosion]

implosion seems to have no intent or conviction behind his votes. could be a style thing, but over time it feels like he's always right there when a momentum change wafts through the air.

It's not really a playstyle thing, it's more my response to the stagnation that I felt was occurring. But at the same time I've yet to put a large enough amount of effort into this game. The problem is that I'm scumreading no one.

@Nacho's 1259, it was asked literally five posts later and I answered it literally two posts after that :S.

[implosion]

I understand your perspective here, but there are four days until deadline. All of your votes so far have been pushing people to do alignment indicative things, but it's about time to push to lynch now, don't you think?

This is the problem. At pretty much no point today have I actually had any significant suspicions. Gonna spend the next at least rest of the hour looking more.

[implosion]

The two people I'm most interested in atm are ns and Nacho.

ns has had a lot of lines that others have called towntells and none of them really resonated with me. A lot of his posting to me just feels like trying to get involved in the game/trying to look like he's doing things. Like making this series of posts:

What do we think of Nacho?

I keep forgetting hes in this game and I know this sounds hypocritical but

Can we wagon Nacho or RC or something

I'm talking about my play too.

because I didn't like everyone shunting the early RC thing and I keep forgetting nacho's in this game and that bothers me in terms of his alignment

Thoughts on my push on S-S scumcho?

And then not ever voting Nacho. And he has posted since I voted Nacho, so he could have been the third vote on what would be a budding wagon. This is especially strange since he's been saying these things ever since voting SS. It feels more like putting on airs than actually wanting to become involved in the game. He's been engaging mostly Nacho but has kept his vote on SS even after finding out that SS was layla and commenting on it and mentioning that it threw him for a loop. I feel like town ns would probably have voted nacho after I did if he's been constantly complaining (like I am) that this game has been hard to engage in and a golden opportunity to wagon the person that he's been calling scum for the past few pages appears.

[implosion]

Nacho is also somewhat in the bucket of people who have said relevant things without a whole lot of direction. His vote on me was his first vote of the day, and yet he makes post 1262 asking for me to stop voting for pressure and start voting for lynches. Which is strange from a person who hadn't voted for either all day.

Beyond that his posts don't really make me feel much of anything. He has a pattern of posting a ton all at once which I don't remember from past games with him (though long time ago) and I feel like at some point after one of those catchups he should have felt enough impetus for a vote. I'm not entirely sure why he wouldn't have voted at some point as scum, though.

[implosion]

He has a pattern of posting a ton all at once which I don't remember from past games with him

I am posting from mobile as opposed to from a computer.

You didn't think that was alignment relevant, right?

Nah, more of a train-of-thought thing that I want to be alignment relevant because life would be easy but obviously isn't.

[implosion]

Alright. Was considering claiming 3 hours ago, now that I'm at L-1 might as well. Even apart from being at L-1 I think it'll probably be useful, especially with no other power roles claimed or dead.

I'm the vig. I did shoot gnomeo. I crumbed it in 622 in a paragraph about multiball speculation (first letter of each sentence) because I knew it probably wasn't a multiball game because I was a vig and having three killing factions would be strange.

[implosion]

Why did you wait until day 2 to crumb?

I crumbed near the end of day 1. I think early in the day the thought of crumbing briefly crossed my mind and then when there was multiball speculation I was like "eh, why not."

I did assume that ns was reaction testing incidentally.

It's potentially notable that Nacho was the third spot on both my wagon and the eventual Anen lynch wagon.

[implosion]

I was debating between him, layla, notscience and pie, for the most part. I honestly don't remember why I didn't go for pie. I think I went through like 4-5 instances of opening pie's iso, flitting through it, and just feeling meh. It was probably mostly because it seemed like he was getting townreads from others. ns I didn't want to shoot because ffery said she'd be able to read ns better as time went on i think. It eventually came down to layla and gnomeo, and I picked gnomeo because I was hoping layla was going to start posting more since her early posting felt town. I also think I thought gnomeo was more widely suspected. I didn't really trust my own reads so I wanted to shoot someone who was widely suspected; I didn't really see any good choices, but I wanted to kill someone.

Who do you think would have been a better shot? Was I just reading the overall trends of who was being suspected poorly? I was mostly shooting based on what I perceived to be the town's general reads, not my own.

Also: I'm 2-shot (I didn't say this initially because maybe a week ago I had a random idea that I could pretend to be 1-shot if there was a late massclaim, and then save an extra shot for drawing after 3p lylo or something like that, which is a horrible reason yes, but alas). If you do think I'm a serial killer I'm not going to have any freedom to do as I want.

[implosion]

have you ever played vig before and is this statement consistent with that?

Maybe, I'll need to remember, but this isn't a general statement about how i would play that role. It's because I didn't have a good degree of confidence in my reads. If I had a solid scumread at the end of d1 I would probably have shot them (unless I was going against the entire town or something like that).

Why did you decide to shoot at all then?

Some combination of knowing I'll need to shoot eventually to confirm my role, feeling like we had zero information to work with and wanting the extra information of an extra flip, and maybe other reasons? I knew I could not-shoot but I never particularly considered it seriously.

[implosion]

I don't think I've ever seen a compulsive sk in MS, although I don't remember a whole lot of SK games at all.

If you're interested I actually have one lonely game as third-party from forever ago if you want it for meta.

[implosion]

Although I wasn't an SK. It was a theme game.

[implosion]

Oh god oh god no do not remind me of that

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=18513

[implosion]

Most people have told me not to, so as of now I'm not planning to. If people want me to use it (either on a pre-determined target or on a target of my choice or if you want to restrict me to a set of people, etc) I'm open to whatever.

[implosion]

If you don't then how can we rule out an SK? Just shoot notscience. Tell them I made you do it.

I don't see how me shooting rules me out as an SK.

Pie's play has over time since day one felt more town to me. I think she's a decently solid townread now.

At this point I still prefer either Nacho of people that have votes. I won't be that mad if Boon gets lynched, though I think he's probably town.

[implosion]

Okay.

So multiple people have said I should shoot and multiple people have said not to. In light of wicked's 1456, I'm not sure. I don't feel super strongly about shooting either way. The main reason against it apart from whether or not the town wants to control whether or not I shoot is that the game is in odds but I'm assuming we probably have a protective or interfering role since only Gnomeo died. So idk.

If a lynch winds up happening before I get to post again somehow I'll probably shoot I think.

[implosion]

VOTE: notscience

not much else to say ~_~

i mean i see notscience calling that he's going to get speedwagoned but i think that is what I would like to happen

[implosion]

RC: have you made this kind of not-a-vanilla claim as a town power role getting lynched before? If not (and if you have been in that situation before, which I assume is true), what compelled you to do it in this game in particular?

[implosion]

Implosion, why have you gone so quiet lately?

I don't have that much to say. It's been very rare for me to have a strong opinion on anything in this game. The past few days are no exception. I preferred a lynch on ns over rc before and prefer it more in light of the softclaim, although I'm curious about the softclaim, hence my question to rc.

I'm still not sure about shooting. Unless people don't want me to I'll decide during the night since there are conflicting opinions and I do think both have merits, and not saying which I'm doing also does have theoretical merits (if scum have a limited shot doctor or whatever).

[implosion]

RC, do you appear as scum when you die? Were you lying when you said you were bored with the game?

False flips like death millers are explicitly non-normal. If he's a miller, he'll flip as a miller.

[implosion]

I also still think that ns is a better lynch :/. I see this claim as pretty much null or slightly town. I can definitely see the way he claimed being consistent with him being a miller. I'm not sure if he'd do this flashy of a play as scum.

Also that breadcrumb is great.

[implosion]

I'm still awake but not for much longer. I won't be able to change votes last minute.

Tammy you should use your vote.

[implosion]

Phone post.

Didn't shoot because didn't want mylo if I missed. I think rc has convinced me to take a more serious look at vinkah.

Ss kill is curious with two claimed prs. Could indicate a scum rolecop that targeted Layla which could make sense. That in turn could possibly implicate Tammy but I still think she's pretty damn town even in light of that.

[implosion]

Nobody would kill Implosion. Let's say he's not mafia and is in fact a 2-shot vig, why kill him?

Because after we massclaim today, we'll be able to setup speculate.

They wouldn't kill me for a couple reasons. If the jailkeepre was a doc, I was the obvious protection last night, and if Implosion or Red Coyote were town, then it wouldn't matter really just to confirm them and give an obvious night kill. And if my setup spec, hold on a minute for that, is close and if one of them is scum, mafia probably has a role blocker so it wouldn't matter. By process of elimination they were probably able to determine who blocked the night kill (if Implosion is not mafia), so that one was a no brainer.

So part of the reason why I shouldn't have seen the kill as strange last night is your setup speculation that you have just now started to discuss? Or is this just something else along a similar train of thought?

By process of elimination they were probably able to determine who blocked the night kill (if Implosion is not mafia), so that one was a no brainer.

I don't understand what you're saying here. Granted I also didn't really think very hard before making that comment - when you made an unprompted investigative claim that seemed genuine near the end of the day I just figured you were going to die.

I have to go so I'll keep reading that post later

[implosion]

I can possibly imagine SS having jailkept tammy, btw. It would make sense if (like me) he thought Tammy was going to die, and he was hoping that I was going to shoot. Especially since he was a jailkeeper he might have had reason to believe that tammy wasn't going to be blocked because he might have thought scum had no roleblocker. All speculative though.

We should probably hold off on setup spec until after we massclaim. Or at least don't jump to any conclusions.

Idk about scum having a blocker. I could imagine tammy having been blocked by scum or jailed by ss.

[implosion]

Also, the other game I was in just ended. It ironically had a 2-shot vig and a town rolecop (plus a gunsmith) against a mafia watcher who automatically watched the scum kill, and a doctor.

So yeah, 2-shot vig + rolecop might mean there's a scum doctor.

[implosion]

I'm guessing your idea was to no-lynch?

@Tammy, if I missed a shot last night we'd have 8 alive and (presumably) 3 scum. Should be mylo.

[implosion]

If the idea was to no-lynch, then it is actually possibly useful.

If we see a scum doctor or roleblocker flip later. Of course it's possible that they have both but unlikely.

For now I agree it's too risky.

[implosion]

fery- iirc you said something about his crumb being day 2. Was that true? I'm rather bothered by it.

Why did you wait until day 2 to crumb?

I crumbed near the end of day 1.

In particular it was here (bolding added):

It's probably just time for this to happen.

VOTE: Anen

That's L-1.

Idk what to make of Anen's most recent post, but I feel like this is just the correct lynch at this point given the claim and ~apathy~. I think more information to work with will help fix the overarching feeling of meh that has been discussed.

V

inkah mentioned agreeing with me on this, but I'm also not sure why there's still speculation about multiball, although I guess it's mostly just Anen's post.

I

don't feel like we can get information about the setup from a broad feeling of the day dragging on or whatever.

G

ood scum will be able to fake real scumhunting regardless of whether or not it's multiball.

[implosion]

Another big issue I have with an implo-vig is that looking at layla's iso, her last readspost said she's townreading everyone sans me (who I know is town), nacho, pie, and anen. That makes me think she would have targetted one of us. I'm definitely not a high priority scumkill. Nacho, maybe, but I would expect that from tammy-scum, which doesn't appear to be true. Pie, maybe. If implo *is* a vig I would anticipate that pie was the jk target. Pie was the only one out of us 3 that really seemed a consistent read for her- Layla mentioned her earlier when she called anen out on not noting her shadowing everyone. She only mentions me twice, once when she says she'll call me magic and once when she says I'm not her townread. None of her nacho stances look solid until that point.

Why is this a problem with me-vig? If you think pie is scum, couldn't pie be scum who made the kill n1?

[implosion]

I might just be completely misunderstanding 1885.

[implosion]

Nacho, I'm not sure why you're writing off RC for his role making sense setup-wise when we have yet to massclaim. His role could make sense setup-wise but that doesn't preclude the possibility that he was just setting up a fake miller claim as scum. Essentially the miller fitting in with the setup both can't really be said until we actually know what's being claimed to be in the setup, and doesn't preclude RC being scum.

I was going to say that the problem with me shooting tonight is that it ends the game if we ML and I miss but that isn't strictly a problem I guess since Tammy is probably going to die tonight... although again I'd like to hold up for a massclaim before saying that.

We really need to start the massclaim.

[implosion]

I'm not going to push RC. I think he's town. I just dislike your reasoning for writing him off.

I didn't really take that close of a look at RC's vinkah case, it just looked like something useful to look at at first glance. But looking more at it eh. The inactivity is true but etc. As for the rest of it, the change in playstyle COULD be something to do with scum discussion n1 but there are plenty of people whose playstyles will change as the nature of a game/rl changes. I still don't think that I see what RC does in 683 except that it looks a bit overdramatic. Eh, maybe I do see it a bit actually. That post does have less of a sense of echoing my own sentiments than a lot of his other things that did, especially since I was looking for people to scumread for a while. The fifth point rc makes is also not bad on closer inspection. Vinkah's rc vote does look really awkward, even in light of vinkah putting rc in his list of people he'd vote for. Actually especially in light of that.

[implosion]

Was going to give a "where I'm at" post but eh. I think I'd rather wait until post-massclaim.

[implosion]

It's possible (in fact I'd say pretty likely) that ffery was the n1 scum kill target.

[implosion]

that opens up a fuckton of other questions.

?

Layla-jailkeeper either wanted to jailkeep ffery defensively or [scum who made the kill] offensively. I shot gnomeo.

What questions does that raise? I guess it raises the question of which of those layla did/who she jailkept if it was targeting scum, but those aren't the kind of questions that I would describe as "opening up a fuckton of other questions" as if it makes it an implausible theory.

[implosion]

Also massclaim is close enough to over and I'm bored.

I don't want to lynch ffery or RC or Tammy. If someone had any inkling that ffery was scum I'd be open to listening but I certainly still think she's been playing pretty town.

Tammy never really got past the point of the opening shit that I was townreading her for so she never really went on my radar after that. She's probably town even if more town power is claimed.

RC's vinkah case felt pretty town to me. The points didn't feel particularly fabricated and it seems like an peculiar tact for scum-RC to make to come bellowing in to this day with such a large case on vinkah, although I could imagine it as a sort of scum approach especially if his scumbuddies are people that were being pressured. But the miller claim seems more town than not to me. The way it was claimed feels like an unnecessary risk as scum.

That leaves Wicked, ns, Nacho, Oversoul/Vinkah, pie.

I remember having some reason that I thought was good for townreading Wicked. I need to reconvince myself though. Of the other four, the pie vs ns stuff of late has been of interest to me. It was what was making me ping pie as town iirc, but it theoretically could be a cross-bus. Parts of it have felt sort of self-contained in a manner that could be that but I think that's more ns's posting towards pie than pie's posting towards ns.

I think atm I'd be happy with a lynch in {oversoul, nacho, ns}. The thing that is weird about that list is vinkah's last post where he calls nacho+ns scum as he replaced out. Which I guess I can imagine as possible with that scumteam since he was replacing out.

That list is more poe than anything. I still have never seen anything from ns that made me townread him. The realization that parts of vinkah's disillusionment with the game feel disingenuous is extremely significant to me - that disillusionment was a very large part of my townread on him, in particular feeling that it echoed my own. nacho I think I want to ISO.

[implosion]

So I'm doing some casual vca and I might be confirmationbiasing INCREDIBLY hard right now but that scumteam would make so much sense.

Before biasing anything I want people to ask themselves the following probably pretty important question (I want other people's unbiased take on this because I came up with a theory on this after looking at the votecounts).

How would scum be acting in this game? Would they be inclined to bus heavily? Would they be inclined to buddy each other?

My answer:

I think the latter. The overall feeling of apathy in the town would have given scum a more-than-average amount of sway over how the town was voting, since people were looking for guidance but scum already know where they want to go. It was really hard to make a wagon stick for pretty much this entire game, IMO. Scum would, I think, take advantage of that and make it impossible for town to make a wagon on scum that sticks around.

The three people that I said I'd be willing to vote are never voting each other in any vote counts prior to d3. At all. And nacho/ns at least have gotten a fair amount of flak over the course of this game. Furthermore almost every single wagon with at least 3 people on it that was on someone other than nacho/ns/vinkah had at least one of nacho/ns/vinkah on it, with the exception of if there were multiple wagons not on them with at least 3 people each. I just feel like this is the kind of game where scum could get away with not having to bus at all. Again, PLEASE stop me if this is super confirmation bias-y. I want second/third/nth opinions on this.

I also want to look a bit more at the scramble near the end of d1. The ns wagon was static at {boon, imp, rc, pie} for at least 100 posts while other things happened. I think that's interesting. I just really wish we had a damn flip to work with :/.

[implosion]

"Hey guys, I think scum would be more inclined to buddy each other than bus this game!"

"In pie vs ns it left me feeling like pie is town"

Uh huh.

How are those statements inconsistent?

[implosion]

I don't see why 4 town on that wagon is unlikely if you're scum.

[implosion]

I actually have things to say for once~

More people should come talk to me~

[implosion]

I can't do it with you because I know you're town now.

What was this referring to?

[implosion]

ns i love how helpful you as town are being right now in helping me read you in the event that we are both town

it's really helpful and I just wanted to thank you and that's all

[implosion]

After reading through rc's posts I am baffled, or perhaps I'm just stupid. All I see is him going from scumreading you to townreading you presumably as a result of the end-of-day shenanigans, which is neither specific enough for me nor does it seem to justify the phrasing of "I know why you're town now." So do please enlighten me.

[implosion]

A vinkah+pie+nacho team also actually fulfills all of the vc criteria that I stated earlier. Never voted each other, always had at least one on major wagons. I think.

[implosion]

Actually from a vc perspective it's a bit better. There were a couple cases of wagons where the only three votes were you+nacho+vinkah. So that's also certainly a possible team.

Again, pie is the weakest one in my townpile.

[implosion]

Actually I'm going to rephrase that request to RC.

RC, please convince me wholeheartedly that ns is town. Give me your best case to completely eliminate him from the lynch pool.

[implosion]

Pie/Nacho would have strongarmed this game.

One is scum.

Not both.

Can you delve more in to why this is the case/what you mean?

[implosion]

By which I mean, what exactly you mean by strongarming the game.

[implosion]

It delves down to what I know of pie. I know pie has been dying to draw scum with nacho because the two of them are very loud people when they want to be and could yell down people scumreading the other. Basically I could see them going "oh hey you are town and you are town lets be mason buddies!" and then just strongarm their way through the days, killing vocal people like ffery and tammy, I would probably be alive because while I would be paranoid of both they would protect each other.

Its basically they are both very strong players and I know pie has been dying to be scum with nacho so rather than play as passive a game as they have with town really looking for a leader, if they were scum together they oculd have easily controlled this.

pedit-
what do you think of pie not campaigning to you

@Nacho/pie: is this an accurate description of how you think you'd have played this game if you'd rolled scum together?

[implosion]

vt

Answer 1984 if you can.

[implosion]

It's possible (in fact I'd say pretty likely) that ffery was the n1 scum kill target.

I don't feel comfortable making that assumption... Firstly, as already mentioned, we don't know that Layla was protecting rather than roleblocking. Secondly, IIRC Tammy and I were also pretty popular town reads day 1.

I'm not making it as an assumption, the overall point there is that ffery not having died isn't necessarily indicative that ffery is scum.

[implosion]

So, Implosion claimed vigilante?

Yes.

[implosion]

ns's play on the past couple of pages actually feels town :/.

I do want to hear RC's reasons though.

WRT the nacho/pie thing, idk. It seems like it could be a strong thing but it's kind of unpredictable. I'm not sure if you can really be sure that it'd actually happen that way unless you are one of those two people. Which is part of why I asked them and was kind of hoping obviously that they'd both just say no. But idk. The fact that you, notscience, are saying that this is how they'd likely play together as scum... they would know that you knew that, which would influence them not to do that because you'd be able to call that as a scumteam, and they can't explicitly defend each other in the same way if they're being accused as a pair. And if this whole thing hinges on them being active/loud relative to the sort of background noise of the game then I could imagine them not wanting to do that because they anticipated a very active game because of the playerlist.

Also curious what nacho says on the matter.

[implosion]

It's here.

[implosion]

It's a strange scum tactic to push hard for a lynch at the beginning of the day? Why?

Yeah, I kept modifying that line as I was typing it. It felt like something I really wanted to comment on and that felt significant that I couldn't put my finger on. Idk, maybe notable is just the right word. Honestly I think as I was writing out that part of the post I sort of half-realized that no, that would actually be an incredibly likely ploy for scum-RC to pull, and that didn't really fit in in my head. But it got left in there.

As in claiming PR first?
Why is that?

How do you think the claim fits in with the overall setup?

In general making such a big deal about it. The claiming "not a vt" thing I think just draws more attention to RC if he's scum and I don't think he would want that kind of attention. Especially if we lynch someone else without forcing him to claim - that just makes it awkward that he didn't die, which would be additionally difficult for him to explain. It would just be putting extra obstacles in his way as scum in a way that doesn't make much sense.

[implosion]

The realization that parts of vinkah's disillusionment with the game feel disingenuous is extremely significant to me

What parts of Vinkah's apathy feels town to you?

On brief inspection this seems like a very good example. The "I have a group of townreads and beyond that I really wish someone would just tell me what to do/give me something to sheep" mimiced my feelings strongly. But it isn't a matter of a single post, it was a series of posts and having anything in that series of posts that feels less than genuine (of which I see some now) sort of makes the whole thing a lot weaker.

[implosion]

But it got left in there.

Why?

I'm not usually particularly meticulous about editing posts after writing them and I think my brain got caught up in the point after that one as I was writing it so I just kind of forgot about it.

[implosion]

It's a strange scum tactic to push hard for a lynch at the beginning of the day? Why?

Yeah, I kept modifying that line as I was typing it. It felt like something I really wanted to comment on and that felt significant that I couldn't put my finger on. Idk, maybe notable is just the right word. Honestly I think as I was writing out that part of the post I sort of half-realized that no, that would actually be an incredibly likely ploy for scum-RC to pull, and that didn't really fit in in my head. But it got left in there.

As in claiming PR first?
Why is that?

How do you think the claim fits in with the overall setup?

In general making such a big deal about it. The claiming "not a vt" thing I think just draws more attention to RC if he's scum and I don't think he would want that kind of attention. Especially if we lynch someone else without forcing him to claim - that just makes it awkward that he didn't die, which would be additionally difficult for him to explain. It would just be putting extra obstacles in his way as scum in a way that doesn't make much sense.

Claiming non specific PR means that there's the chance that he can draw a lynch away from himself without risk of counterclaim. He would very easily be able to explain himself still being alive by scum being afraid of protection.

Well he didn't really have to risk counterclaim anyway, he crumbed miller and was planning to claim miller and miller isn't really a counterclaimable role

[implosion]

The realization that parts of vinkah's disillusionment with the game feel disingenuous is extremely significant to me

What parts of Vinkah's apathy feels town to you?

On brief inspection this seems like a very good example. The "I have a group of townreads and beyond that I really wish someone would just tell me what to do/give me something to sheep" mimiced my feelings strongly. But it isn't a matter of a single post, it was a series of posts and having anything in that series of posts that feels less than genuine (of which I see some now) sort of makes the whole thing a lot weaker.

What specifically felt less than genuine?

Basically what I said in the second half of this. To elaborate, 683 on first glance to me looked similar to how I felt but now on further inspection it looks more like an excuse to not ever be solid on anything, rather than having a desire to get solid reads asap. It feels less like he's genuinely trying to refine his reads and more like he just wants to be stuck in a bog of not having reads forever.

[implosion]

Anyway I'm sleeping now. So no more rapid-fire question time with Nacho for now.

[implosion]

Is Implosion claiming his kill went through and someone else was protected?

Strictly speaking no, I am not

claiming

that in the sense of knowing that it's what happened from night actions. I just find it more likely than the alternative, which is that both I and the scumteam shot Gnomeo.

683 on first glance to me looked similar to how I felt but now on further inspection it looks more like an excuse to not ever be solid on anything, rather than having a desire to get solid reads asap.

How was this different than what you posted?
How was this different than what Tammy posted with the hand-holding comment?

Like I said I found Vinkah's 447 to mirror my own feelings, for instance in this post (437):

If someone (really anyone who feels like it) wants to give me their opinion on like, a #1 thing I should look at/reevaluate right now, that'd be nice.

That and Tammy's request hand-holding, as well as Vinkah's 447, are essentially asking for help. It's constructive. Contrast 683: while he says that he's willing to look at other opinions, he does so in an almost defeatist manner, as though he feels confident that he's

never

going to have solid reads. It also does feel a bit overdramatic, which contributes to it feeling disingenuous. That feeling that I see emanating from this post that he's never going to have solid reads doesn't read town anymore - it reads like scum who

wants

not to have solid reads because not having solid reads makes your life a lot simpler as scum in some cases because you don't need to commit to anything.

[implosion]

And @Wicked: I'm not convinced that a nacho/oversoul/pie team doesn't make sense. The nacho/pie thing really doesn't convince me especially after Nacho's reply. That said Nacho/os/ffer is a distinct possibility.

I think at

this

point I am pretty much okay with lynching either os or nacho. That said, I am certainly eagerly awaiting os's take on the game.

[implosion]

Why do you think I'm scummy?

PoE/Like I said I intend to ISO you but when I was going to I remembered that one of the reasons somewhere in my mind was that you were third on both of those wagons, so I decided to look at vca instead. Will probably get to it tonight. Maybe not.

So this is actually a really weird line of thought to me: you ask us if we'd play like this as scum together, what do you think we would say if we were scum together?

If you say "yes, this is how we'd play together as scum" then I don't really get anything out of it.
If you say "no, this is not how we'd play together as scum" then notscience's point loses a lot of purchase.

If you are scum together then I'm not sure which you'd say; but if either of you says the latter then it is good reason to think that the "nacho/pie would have strongarmed" point is false. My guess would be that you'd answer it honestly even as scum. That's probably what I would wind up doing in that situation.

[implosion]

My guess would be that you'd answer it honestly even as scum. That's probably what I would wind up doing in that situation.

Why?

I don't really like lying about brute facts like that as scum, for want of avoiding things like this:

Pedit- well flat out denying it sends me screaming to the high heavens the songs of your bs but

I know that if I'm being honest about such things as scum, even if I'm called out on them, I am at least in the right and that makes arguing easier.

[implosion]

I wanted you to comment on notsience.

[implosion]

On phone so don't want to find specific post. I wanted you to elaborate on what you were referring to when you said something like "I can't push you because I know why you're town now".

[implosion]

Tammy is going to target me tonight to confirm what role I actually am.

Lolwut? Tammy is going to die tonight 90%.

implosion shooting RC

Again, lolwut? Why do you get to choose who I shoot?

[implosion]

Also notscience telilng oversoul to vote in the pie/notscience schism is like, intentionally suicidal if notscience is scum

like fuck i think my opinion on ns has done a complete 180 since yesterday

[implosion]

With regards to the "listening to the town is a bad strat as vig"; there are pros and cons. What you listed (it can be scum influenced) is in fact a con. But there are pros. If the vig doesn't trust their reads then it has the benefit of eliminating someone who was likely going to be lynched if not for the vig shot, so in a sense it turns into an additional lynch.

[implosion]

Again, lolwut? Why do you get to choose who I shoot?

because you clearly don't know who to target

Do enlighten me on why i, the one who is the vig and literally calls the shots, should trust you in particular over me

[implosion]

like if anything

me listening to you would be exactly what you were telling you not to do

why by your logic should I let you dictate my shot when you could be scum aligned? Especially when your slot is in my scumpile.

[implosion]

Also, my intent right now (which, of course, is open to change if people make *good* arguments) is to hold my remaining shot for the eventuality that we lynch a scum doctor or roleblocker so that we have the option of no-lynching and shooting.

Although until your claim of not-a-vt i was pretty much assuming that i was going to be off the table permanently for setup reasons so that I wouldn't have to worry about that

[implosion]

dude

YOU ARE A SCUMREAD OF MINE

how is it spineless to not follow one of my scumreads when they ask me to shoot in a particular way

[implosion]

Also, my intent right now (which, of course, is open to change if people make *good* arguments) is to hold my remaining shot for the eventuality that we lynch a scum doctor or roleblocker so that we have the option of no-lynching and shooting.

Although until your claim of not-a-vt i was pretty much assuming that i was going to be off the table permanently for setup reasons so that I wouldn't have to worry about that

huh?

Tammy has given pretty good indication (maybe it was fferyllt) of what a typical scum group in an Empire game is going to be. Hint: not very powerful, if any at all.

I remember someone saying the last 2 empire games featured 3 goons and then 3 goons with daytalk. IF the scum has a roleblocker is going to be limited shot, possibly only 1 shot. More likely they have some form of information role.

good mods will strive to not have a consistent meta

[implosion]

plus if you actually are a power role then I'm forced to believe that there are four because there's no way I'm giving up tammy-town.

Claim.

[implosion]

(that is, if you were to flip. unless you have a damn good pr claim there's a good chance i'm just going to think you're bsing)

[implosion]

There is a difference between "listening to the town's opinions" and "listening to oversoul's opinions" that you don't seem to see
you also seem to be ignoring any other points i make
so.

Thoughts on the fact that a dead tammy can't confirm your role?

[implosion]

i hate this game.

[implosion]

i thought i was starting to figure anything out.

and then no, you all have to fuck everything don't you

[implosion]

it's a problem that rc isn't willing to accept a lynch other than os, and pie and ns aren't willing to accept a lynch other than each other

a problem that needs to actually be sorted out amongst you three and not shoved aside

[implosion]

Im willing to accept my own lynch on the premise that you purge pie tomorrow.

yes i know
this still conflicts with rc

[implosion]

Im willing to accept my own lynch on the premise that you purge pie tomorrow.

NO. There's more than one scum in this game. Quit being anti-town, ffs.

you're doing the same thing :/

[implosion]

like i do have a vote
but that doesn't fix the problem that tomorrow if any lynch goes through someone is going to be whining that the lynch was not in their acceptable lynch pool
i guess in theory it isn't the biggest problem in the world. But it's a sort of fundamental thing about how we want to approach this day.

[implosion]

and i'm not as convinced on os's slot after his posting. And it isn't just the "oh the replacement did things" bump.

[implosion]

i think ns is right insofar as we're willing to bet the game on ns/pie's convincedness that each other are scum

[implosion]

Why did he obviously jail scum?

[implosion]

well why couldn't he have jailed the scum's target

[implosion]

also rc i really hate you but you're probably right.

Idk. It probably is just the replacement shit. I thought i'd be able to get a better grip on it but it's mostly stuff that just can occur from good scum like the 'i obvtowned this slot' line.

that said, i'm still not convinced that os is the right lynch for today even if he is my top scumread because of the way the pie/ns dynamic is playing out. mathematically i guess it doesn't matter. but i don't feel good about doing it when there are all of these sentiments that only lynching one person or in a particular pool is okay.

[implosion]

I hate being town. Jesus, who likes this? Why do I even play this game?

i got this and my other town pm for the two games that i joined (the other now being completed) and i was super pumped
whoo boy was past me silly
i guess i am kind of enjoying this but fuck.

[implosion]

i honestly only trust tammy and rc right now as town

[implosion]

I can also see Wicked's scumteam. Which is a problem. Because pie and notscience are both going to throw massive fits over the fact that three people can see a scumteam with neither of them in it. But -sigh-. As time has passed over the course of this day, notscience has done a lot more things that feel town. And my gut says that pie's play over the course of this day has been more town than ffery's. I had a brief moment yesterday of wanting to wagon ffery and see what the fallout looks like, but that's something for later. Point is that I'm looking at this game from the point of view of {me, RC, Tammy} as a town core and RC's taking such charge on wanting os lynched and I can't actually come up with any reasons that are good to not want to lynch oversoul. Not entirely sheeping, but somewhat.

VOTE: Oversoul
L-1.

Claim.

(I have a theory about what he's going to claim incidentally)

[implosion]

Claim.

[implosion]

If you are town you're acting absurdly anti-town right now

it's called a massclaim for a reason

there's this thing called setup speculation

and pie was trying to do it

and i've been trying to do it

and you're refusing to allow the town to do it

[implosion]

yep
a vt who wanted to draw out the rolecop on them because a rolecop on a vt totally gives us useful information
makes sense.

[implosion]

(also my theory was that oversoul was going to claim to be a second miller, in which case i probably would have unvoted to think about it)

[implosion]

in what objective sense are you a bad lynch?

[implosion]

also you do realize if you're town and we mislynch someone other than you today, me shooting you = game over

[implosion]

.-.

[implosion]

notscience, at least {me, ffery, redcoyote, wicked} are not convinced that you and pie aren't both town.

[implosion]

It almost feels like that today the scum team decided to waltz in and spray that glow in the dark confetti stuff all over the place and we got some of it stuck in our eyes and we're just looking around confused and half-blind.

it's funny, i clicked the thread then navigated away and had some thoughts that mirrored this and then came back... whereas day one there was a lot of apathy, I feel like today is marked by a lot of frustration. This, and RC berating his being town, and me saying I hate this game, and notscience being terrified that the person he's been tunneling is town...

[implosion]

I don't think everyone who has claimed is telling the truth.

I happen to think everyone who's claiming is telling the truth just because Tammy and RC happen to be my two strongest townreads, and that's more because of their play than the roles they've claimed. Or at least in rc's case. Although I'm going to be really goddamn mad if rc is stringing me along.

There's a part of me that says "why hasn't nacho been lynched yet" because i don't remember anyone saying they thought he was town in recent history though I might be forgetting someone or multiple people.

[implosion]

And that sentiment towards nacho isn't a rhetorical question either. It's an actual question to me why there hasn't been more direct pressure on nacho.

[implosion]

Because of the claimed VTs, we have-

Nacho- probscum

Me- Town

Pie- :/

Oversoul- I think town

Wickedest- Ffery thinks hes town i think hes meh

ffery- i think town

4/6 I think could be town, potentially 5 if I really trust ffery.

There has to be someone lying or there is 3 scum in the vts which i dont think i believe

from this it at least immediately sounds to me like a pie/nacho/wicked scumteam is possible in your worldview. There is the nacho/pie thing but iirc you said you were softening on that

[implosion]

Clearly Nacho and Pie cannot be scum together. No scumteam could possibly have names collectively that delicious.

Dear god someone help me

[implosion]

Well yeah. But it is at least a team that is consistent with your stated core beliefs.

Do you have a basis for the strength of your ffery read that is likely to be easy to explain eloquently?

[implosion]

i honestly cannot imagine tammy not dying tonight. I guess it's possible. But I see it as incredibly unlikely.

[implosion]

:/

[implosion]

I can very much see pie's reaction here as being that of scum-caught-for-the-wrong-reasons.

I seriously cannot see anything notscience has done/said in the past 10 pages as scum.

[implosion]

/mass claim over

ah, you naive fool...

Not really buying nacho's claim especially insofar as it can easily be a scum role. But we'll see what he has to say.

[implosion]

What reason did you have to lie?

[implosion]

He looks more like town-oversoul instead of scum-oversoul.

Scum oversoul just feels a lot less engaged and is hyperlurky.

This really isn't convincing even ignoring tammy's last post. He had just replaced in, so strong activity makes sense as either alignment... and now he is starting to lurk. None of the points on oversoul really convince me. Asking people to give opinions in order seems pretty fakeable as scum.

[implosion]

That said I do have a tremendous amount of paranoia with regards to him.

I'll read through more thoroughly and be more active again tomorrow. I had stuff to do today.

[implosion]

I'm trying to decide how much paranoia pie is giving me with respect to oversoul. Unfortunately it feels like the only way I can resolve this in my head is to meta oversoul. But the problem is that the only thing that would be relevant is him replacing late into an active game similar to this one as scum which is very specific.

I agree that a lot of the things pie has mentioned are things that at least on the surface, if not deeper, seem like things that scum would be much less likely to do. I just don't know if oversoul would be the kind of player who would go into a replacement slot as scum with the sort of boisterous state of mind that "I'm going to make this slot look town and that's that."

At this point there is an inkling of paranoia that RC is scum buddying me and that it's working but I don't think that's why I'm townreading him. I still trust Tammy and at this point I think I'm willing to put notscience in my top townread tier.

My problem with "strong" setup spec is that we haven't seen any scum flips. Nacho's role *could* make sense if the scum have a certain level of power... that said, I do agree that the setup does feel awkward if all PRs are telling the truth.

[implosion]

Can people give me good reasons for townreading Wicked?

[implosion]

Not if you're planning to run off and join the Nacho wagon I won't.

To what degree is your conviction on Oversoul a result of Vinkah's play and to what degree has it been strengthened by Oversoul's play?

[implosion]

I'm still particularly curious about what Oversoul meant by him being an objectively bad lynch.

[implosion]

And I'm sure this is going to become a hell of a lot more obvious tomorrow, but this is scummy as shit. Normal people don't look at an exchange like that and go "oh, this is scum for the wrong reasons!". Scum trying to fuel a fire absolutely do.

Your characterization of this is funny, given that you're describing it as not something normal people would do, when earlier you called me weird in a neutral way. I don't see why this is something that you think town-me wouldn't say; I'm looking for a lot of scum in a tiny player list full of people towntelling. I'm looking for any damn reason that someone could be scum because if I just go by process of elimination alone then I'd have eliminated everyone a long time ago, so I can only rely on the more confident of those eliminations right now. I also don't see how that's fueling a fire given that pie isn't taking a ton of heat at the moment.

Implosion's weak interjection here looks exactly like his weak interjection after the pie posts. Fancy that.

Oh no, I didn't have a strong opinion on something but I still had things to say. Sue me.

RC I really actually do need those reasons for wicked to be town though, the more that I think about it. I'm looking for scum in {OS, Nacho, Wicked, pie, ffery} and my gut is telling me that nacho's posturing right now is town, or at least that the way this day is playing out makes nacho + os both scum unlikely. So I have very few options for who is scum if I'm to have my thoughts remain consistent.

I'm definitely comfortable with lynching OS if he's going to lurk away after his "obvtowning the slot" didn't work. I know RL is a thing, but I feel like the sudden drastic drop in activity and in general adamancy is suspect. I want to know if RL is the only cause. I feel like this day has been very smooth sailing in terms of being able to get stuff accomplished and that now, suddenly, one key person has become inactive and is impeding that process because of that.

[implosion]

In general the pie/notscience dynamic is extremely interesting... and thinking more about it, the way it has ultimately played out just makes me suspicious of pie. notscience's paranoia over his pie read had a very open, natural progression. It felt like he went through multiple instances of being dead-certain that pie was scum and then retracting that certainty, like a real paranoid townie. Like someone who felt that their view of the game was starting to collapse and that they had to change something. pie's was very sudden and felt reactive to notscience.

It comes down to this: pie's suspicion of notscience was extremely consistently unwavering. Iirc, she was constantly tunneling notscience even through the early stages of notscience trying to work with pie/showing paranoia over the pie scumread (point out if I missed pie stating some uncertainty over her notscience read because if I did miss something like this then this argument has a lot less merit). That level of dedication to the scumread doesn't feel like something that pie could just sleep on and suddenly be over. Conversely switching to a townread on notscience there is *extremely* convenient for pie-scum: notscience was becoming a less in-vogue scumread, and it gives pie the opportunity to start pushing nacho (this makes more sense if nacho is town, which i think in turn makes sense if oversoul is scum). I guess I am somewhat pushing an oversoul-pie team here. I guess nacho town doesn't technically strictly imply oversoul scum assuming my strong townreads but i think it does by poe unless it's something like pie-ffery-wicked which would be silly.

Idk. Pie's continual level of seeming anger towards notscience without any second-thoughts at all turning into her suddenly being willing to work with notscience just feels wrong.

[implosion]

Also I really don't actually have any good reasons to think nacho is town. *entirely* gut. There is the thought that oversoul-scum implies nacho-town to some extent but something about his recent play also does ping town. The switching claim to backup rolecop of all things... i mean, I made the point that a backup rolecop could be scum but would a mafia backup rolecop REALLY claim rolecop here? That seems downright idiotic.

[implosion]

RC:

RC I really actually do need those reasons for wicked to be town though, the more that I think about it. I'm looking for scum in {OS, Nacho, Wicked, pie, ffery} and my gut is telling me that nacho's posturing right now is town, or at least that the way this day is playing out makes nacho + os both scum unlikely. So I have very few options for who is scum if I'm to have my thoughts remain consistent.

[implosion]

I can explain the process behind my notscience read flipping in more depth if desired. I was actually a little bit surprised when ffery said it was what she found sketchy in my analysis, because to me it feels like the least likely thing in there that I would do as scum. Or I guess that I felt like the way I was flipping on notscience felt town. Idk. I feel like scum-me would just have carried the same nacho/notscience reads from d2 into d3 and just be mindlessly pushing nacho here.

Maybe I was just more focused today. But I kept reading and re-reading notscience's posting through d2 and just did not see what other people townreading him were seeing at all. And the way he flipped on pie did not feel like scum. From my impression of nostcience scum-notscience would have just kept chugging along against pie. From my impression of their dynamic scum-notscience would know that trying to elicit a townread from pie would be futile and so would just try to appeal to those already townreading him and go after pie that way. That combined with notscience's very genuine-seeming development of paranoia just does not strike me as scum. I might be completely misjudging notscience but I think I made a fairly strong character judgment that scum-notscience had absolutely no reason to waffle on pie in the first place.

I'm not saying that pie tunneling and then flipping on notscience is what's scummy, I'm saying that the way she did it and the timing were scummy. notscience made a series of posts including 2437/2439. pie continues to attack notscience vehemently, categorizing 2355 as something that she doesn't understand how anyone could possibly read as not scummy. She then sleeps on it and immediately does a 180 degree turn citing 2437/2439.

That just doesn't feel genuine. Does pie consistently flip so quickly on such deeply entrenched reads? What am I missing here?

[implosion]

(also ftr, i've never played with pie or ns at least in memory)

[implosion]

i think if implo can't see why i backed off at the point i did or why i wanted to reach out to notsci afterward, he didn't read notsci's posts leading up to it at all at best

I guess to some degree it makes sense for you to have flipped. What bugs me is 2445/2446. When you made those posts were the cogs already turning in your head as to notscience being possibly town, and you were just suppressing those thoughts and not posting them? Or did you literally flip entirely in one night?

Another thing that bugs me at a really basic level is just how you both were convinced to an absolute degree that each other were scum and then it disappeared. Reads change and shit. But the fact that you were completely convinced on each other to the point where you were willing to throw the game if you were wrong at some point in time bugs me. For some reason the you -> notscience direction of that bugs me more. It might be because of ns saying that you tend to be more logical than he does.

There was a part of me 2 hours ago that was convinced that if we lynched os and he flipped scum that I was going to shoot you and you'd flip scum. Convinced is probably the wrong word actually, more anticipatory. I feel like if you're town then my next best bet right now is oversoul/wicked/ffery. Which I guess there's nothing theoretically wrong with.

[implosion]

I pretty much haven't elaborated on ffery or wicked at all today. Or wicked really ever iirc. I will in the morning. Atm my feelings towards ffery are that she was ignorable d1, she got enough towncred for me to continue ignoring her d2, and now I need to stop ignoring her because I'm trying to put together a complete puzzle. I don't remember any of her posts today making me feel anything at all. But I'll look at her more when I wake up.

[implosion]

implosion, why does the "why would they do this as scum" card come into play for Nacho's backup role cop claim, but not for pieguyn's change in read on notscience?

I don't see the comparison here. pie's change in read on notscience has a very clear motivation if she's scum beyond just "doing it to get wifom towncred."

After skimming through her iso of today I don't really have a much more interesting opinion on ffery. Her play doesn't feel very alignment-indicative. She's being generically helpful and commenting on a wide variety of things but isn't really giving enough original analysis for me to think much.

[implosion]

Scum-pie's motivation for flipping on notscience would be that scum-pie realized that a push on notscience wasn't going to be fruitful.