Mini Normal 1707 - Frog Mafia! - GAME OVER - TOWN WIN!

[AxleGreaser]

Questions:
If scorpious is scum can he be Jk'd and role coped on the same night?

Some Jailkeepers not only protect their target from all kills, but also render its target untargetable by all other actions during that Night. This variant is also known as Alien.

So we could be limp wristed nancies and quick no lynch. Then JK and Role cop Scorp. If hes not scum, and a kill happens I think we wind up in a strictly better situation with one more effective green check, 1 dead towny, and its our turn to lynch. . (but i have not written it down yet)

Id like to hear if mario has anything to say, as he has a N1 result and a N3 result that has not been reported and he might well die if there is another night.

[AxleGreaser]

Scum just having a backup rolecop is way too weak.

versus only two town PRs? RoleCop (who can catch just the Encrypter, and the backup role cop knows what to claim) hence the role cop is not all that strong as the Goon is effectively a GF s against them?.

JK, will be primarily usually used defensively early game. A save does not buy an extra mislynch.

Backup role cop also provides scum with knowledge.

If it is Role cop + backup + Jk vs Encrypter, whats the extra Scum PR that is going to balance it out?

[AxleGreaser]

Scum just having a backup rolecop is way too weak.

In
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Tit_for_Tat

In tit for Tat

Town has Vig and a JK. The Jk if they get the save buys back the mislynch the Vig costs town.
Scum has the rolecop.

In my scenario for here scum BRCop. Scum are more powerful in that backup role cop is a plausible claim, whereas in tit for tat its a straight up scum claim.
So here, vs tit for tat, the role cop is weaker. We don't have a vig. The JK defensively saving isnt real useful (unless they hit lots of them)

Town is weaker, so is scum.

If the game is town PR heavy whats the scum PR? That balances (JK, RCop, BRCOP, / Encrypot/ goon / ???)
nerf town. another goon? so that the rolecop are actually bait and switch, where their checks are effectively mainly meaningless.
Scum RB. ?? not sure the play since the second scum lynch matches there still being a scum RB.
???

[AxleGreaser]

Scum just having a backup rolecop is way too weak.

Also note that in terms of balance town having two PRs, weakens town vs setups with 3 claimable role pms.
Scum also have the "power" of knowing there is town Role cop.

"Knowledge is power"

[AxleGreaser]

Do you have checks that you think you should tell us about. Just in case you die? (N1 N3)

if we assume Zakk is town
vanilla checks to me seem to be strong indication the person is town.
That is unless people suggest, RCop BRCop Jk, vs encrypter , goon goon, is balanced because it nerfs the rcops to not very useful at all.

[AxleGreaser]

odd. but meh.

[AxleGreaser]

I am going to assume that if you have been role blocked saying so would only be helpful.
If that is silly someone else will I expect explain why.

[AxleGreaser]

Yeah we aren't lynching me. >.>

Yes I jailed scorpi

What did jailing me accomplish?

Huh?
If the kill had happened it would have cleared you.
If you are scum it stops your kill.

[AxleGreaser]

Axle, went digging

and found a pile of drivel / fluff.

At no point did I usggest this was a tit for tat setup or that tit for ta was normal.

However tit for tat is played and considered balance.

I extrapolated sideways to show that [

JK(Mala) RCop(mario) 8VT

] vs [

Encryptor(max) BRCop(Zak) Goon(shiro)

] looks balanced.

[AxleGreaser]

VOTE: Zakk

Ok so I read your case in 1380

but id be interested in your views on game balance independent of who you think is scum as per your case.

I assume that you think that the game would be balanced with Zak as scum backup RCop
or a willing to assume that is plausible.

Id like to hear from Singer too.

[AxleGreaser]

1) We need a massclaim.

This is plausible, but I know I don't know when to mass claim and when to not.
How other people play blue roles is largely a mystery to me.
I have only ever been a blue role in a role madness game, and even then was effectively less useful than a VT.
but my external observation of other people playing blue roles is it saps (on average) at least 10 IQ points. (there are outliers BOTH ways )
<

Sorry to everyone with a blue role ever

>

[AxleGreaser]

Cool I will ask Singer.
and anyone else with reasons on why it would or would not be balanced.

Everytime I try to break the game via setup balance it's always wrong

I know I am often just wrong (or in a different to reality of what the mod thinks is balanced too often)
I also know I am trusting my scum!Zakk read enough for it to make me want to believe it would be balanced with Zakk as scum

Of course, if there are other town power roles that have not yet claimed that would be a whole new kettle of fish.

[AxleGreaser]

Btw that's not a case axxle, please.

sry. as in, actually.

[AxleGreaser]

UNVOTE:

PoE has me down to three candidates for the last scum, none of which are actually zakk.

what POE occured since

Guys, don't lynch Scorp. It makes much more sense to lynch zakk

[AxleGreaser]

I'm trying to work through the sequence of events in my head:

D1 - We lynch Maxwell, the encryptor.
N1 - Mala JK's singer, getting lucky with no NK.
D2 - We lynch Shiro, mafia goon. Mala announces she's JK.
N2 - Mala JK's BBT, again no NK.
D3 - We lynch BBT, VT.
N3 - Mala JK's Scorp, no NK.

Knowing that BBT was town, the fact that Mala is still alive doesn't actually make sense. Why wouldn't scum have killed her N2 instead of

targeting BBT, who people were scum reading?

the narrowness of your speculation here gives me cause for concern about the accuracy of your conclusion.

On N2, I expect that scum did a no kill.

[AxleGreaser]

Ok i have been considering things.

VOTE: Zakk


I have reached the conclusion:
My original read from previous days was Zakk is scum
My feel read from today is Zakk is cum.
My Analysis of the balance means that Zakk as an actual scum Back up Role Cop is balanced. (

JK RCop Vts

vs

Enc + BRCop Goon

)

The alternative of scum having an RB, is not compatible with how they have played sine the second scum flip. Block one PR and kill the other is too easily.
I have no suggestions for other scum PRs to balance the setup that make sense either. I thus scum read Zakk from the claim.

Unless Singer or someone else can persuade me my analysis of balance is wrong, I think I am wedded to voting Zakk today.

[AxleGreaser]

cus if we are getting to that i have had ideas about potential setup based on flips and claims

I am interested. (providing you are a sensible person.)
Open assumed fcts for speccing.

Mala claimed JK, Metal Sonic claimed RCop, Zakk claimed Backup RB, Shiro flipped Goon, Max Flipped Encrypter.

as per normal unless you have done 2&3&4 and still advocate 1

1) We need a massclaim.
2) We need to pull our head out of our asses.
3) We need to calm down.
4) We need to stop and think.

Those are the facts we are going with.

I would suggest that it is now bleeding obvious that

• # scum do not fear POE by the Rolecop.
  # There is no Scum role blocker.
  

To me this implies scum is

amazingly stupid

.

scum is going to either check as VT or is at least one of the claimed roles and will check as the claimed role.

Role Cop BackupRole Cop + JK

vs

Encrypter + Goon + goon

may even be approximately balanced, as the rolecop are highly nerfed as both goons are effectively Godfathers to the a role cop.
The setup seems a little unreasonable in terms of bait and switch on the role cops.

Role Cop + JK

vs

Encrypter + BackupRole Cop + goon

Seems balanced and interesting and fair as described in my earlier posts 1319
1335(refuting zakks meanderings)
1336 responding to malas 1333 (see also 1386 1387)
1342 arguing against 1337

So yes IKA I would love your views on the speculation I did.

ALSO

I scum read Zakks play

both on earlier days and today.

[AxleGreaser]

I don't think Mala's scum, and I'm having a hard time believing Scorpious is, either...

That is near enough to my read.

What do you think of my spculation on a scum

backup role Cop + Encrypter + Goon

being a balanced setup
vs

Role Cop + JK

remembering that goon is effective GF against RoleCop.
It seems balanced to me, and interesting.

Rolecop + backup + JK, vs Encrypter goon goon may also be balnced as that two effective GFs but it seems bad(uninteresting and ambushy)
also that both are possible is all that is required to make Zakks claim of Null value.

I believe scum dont have an RB, who would be afraid of getting rolecopped.
I believe from their play scum are not afraid of being role copped at all.

[AxleGreaser]

What doesn't make sense from that perspective, is that scum would literally have to have been targetting Scorpious for the last two nights for there to justify the no-kill. It just wouldn't make sense unless they weren't around/active or were banking on us just lynching Scorpious.

From which perspective?

Scum no killed two nights in a row.

The other shakeup is Mala is scum RB.
But why Mala would be waiting around with Rolecops able to clear people also makes no sense.

[AxleGreaser]

@Singer

So ignoring actions and reads on people

is (

Zakk is scum

)

JK + Role Cop + 8Vts

vs

BackupRCop Encrypter Goon(GF to RCop)

2 claimable town PRs vs 1.5 detectable scum roles + town JK

balanced in your view?

(if not why not: see my posts)

For good merit (

scum is in the the VT like people

)
is this

JK + Role Cop + BackupRCop 7Vts

vs

Encrypter Goon(GF to RCop) Goon(GF to RCop)

balanced?

look reasonable?

Given that only 1/3 roles are detectable by the Rcops. (bait and switch?)

How about (

a mala scum scenario

)
is this

Role Cop + BackupRCop 8Vts

vs

Encrypter RoleBlocker(scum JK?) Goon(GF to RCop)

balanced?

[AxleGreaser]

it is really likely Scorpious would have targeted BBT,

Rubbish.
If scorp is scum and Goon, then if he kills, he kills Mala, who can catch him with an offensive JK. he also does it early while the chnaces of someone else being JK'd are highest.
If Scorp is scum and not goon he has double trouble, and needs all of Mala, Sonic and Zak dead before ther are not blue roles that can catch him.

TLDR: This is BS

N2: scum-Scorpious tried to kill BBT who suspected him, Mala jailed BBT

Killing Mala first was Scorps only sensible move.

Scum is No killing because they don't fear the RCop.

[AxleGreaser]

stop making colors and vote scum

stop doubt casting and address the actual issues.

[AxleGreaser]

^^^^
That's impressive.. Too bad its false..

If its impressive why would you not kill Mala N2 and instead leave it to a "last ditch" hail mary?

the scum plan is this one

do you think it's even REMOTELY possible that scum is no-killing to make you look bad (hint: you look bad)

[AxleGreaser]

Scorpious is more scummy in the vote counts than [...] Zakk.

Zakk flopped off Max, having flopped on for no good reason and asked for claim.
Stated the thing was now mollified by the "reaction"
Flopped off when i applied sufficient pressure it looked like Max might survive.

Scorp Voted Shiro pretty much out of the gate D2.
If Zakk is scum and Scorp town.... then Scorps D1 looks pretty good.

Sure he wasnt voting one scum, he was voting the other.

please provide details for your statement.

[AxleGreaser]

sarcasm dude..

sry.

[AxleGreaser]

so

Vote Zakk for a brighter cleaner tomorrow.

[AxleGreaser]

well vote him because he got scum PM.

[AxleGreaser]

Scorps voting make lots of sense, and is even good, if Zak is scum

[AxleGreaser]

and Zakk said of Shiro

Spoiler: what zakk said

top town read.

okay guys. i re-read the thread and went through everything meticulously.
Shiro is town.
...

Okay singer, so if I'm town, you're town, notscience is town, Shiro is town, and Axle is town, who's that leave?
[...]
I already know what you think of Nosferatu/replacement(?) so let's focus on the six in the middle.

211 Votes No/Max ... 216 "Changed my mind about Nosferatu." (intervening MNOS votes ...zero)

Lol no, Shiro is town.

321 second top town along with Singer
428 Shiro top town
727 Going soft on shiro towniness
775 defends shiro
and again

I am against a shiro lynch.

781 more defense

and i only came up with him as more town, based on negative associative tells from maxwell/nos

I'll be really, really surprised if either Shiro or AxleGreaser is scum.

Then out of nowhere

Vote: shiro

"defends " in some sense Shiro with "dorothy dixers" 1175
and rows for both a Mala and Scorp Lynch 1229 1230

I don't think you could hardly even call that bussing.
(well except that technically Zakk did vote Shiro but at no point lent any support to the idea Shiro might be scum.)

pedit: Hi signer:

[AxleGreaser]

Rolecops aren't that powerful for town in a small game, and have the inherent assumption that they're a scum role. Why would you think either of them are scum?

I think it because I don't like the setup with mala as scum(RB) and town only having Role cop + backup. (seems unbalanced for MS)

I think that I cant see there being an RB we haven't heard about yet. If there was an RB, who could be caught by role cops Id be expecting then to be worried about being rolecoped.
Thus they almost certainly would have RB'd Mala or the Role cop and killed the other. I believe there is no scum RB in the game.

I believe the setup is probably either

JK RCop

vs

Encrypter BRcop Goon(effective GF)

or

JK RCop BRcop

vs

Encrypter Goon(effective GF) Goon(effective GF)

I don't like the second setup as much.

I regard Zakks claim as at least being null, (and personally I think it is(given no RB)) scum indicative.

@Singer

Mala advocated

1) We need a massclaim.
2) We need to pull our head out of our asses.
3) We need to calm down.
4) We need to stop and think.
5) We need to look at interactions.
6) I need to do a VCA.

Do you advocate outing everything about every ones roles?

I know my judgement on when is best to do that is bad.

[AxleGreaser]

@Singer

I will be working on my server some more, but check in periodically, just in case you are

reading todays thread

and

then

have something to say.
because seemingly the thread is waiting on you.
Ill say good night when I run out of coffee power.

We have 8 days but this day has been staaaaalllllled for bit and its frustrating me.

[AxleGreaser]

Zakk are you a specific backup

Idk what you mean by specific

I'm a backup role cop and I get powers when the rolecop dies

So Your PM has the word "role"

[AxleGreaser]

that BTW is

not

asking you to quote your Pm but be very explicit about your exact role

[AxleGreaser]

Can we just HVE a masclaim? Please and thanks.

Now we need a mass claim.

We even need one this much
UNVOTE: Zakk

First person to claim is for Zakk to say that his role PM specified

Backup Role Cop

as his

Role name

.

Then i will say who ought go next.... and why.

[AxleGreaser]

I still disagree, I feel it would help the remaining scum.. Like,who to take out tonight..

Spoiler: Why scorpious is wrong

We are up to lynching or not lynching people based on their role claims.
Your vote on mala given the claimed roles is from my point of view quite unlikely due to balance.
I dont like (

RCop BRCOP

vs

Encrypt + JK(RB

)) looks wrong

however if there was another PR, that would raise serious questions and exonerate to a large degree the VTs unless somehow that looked like new balanced setup.

[AxleGreaser]

Who wants to go second? ( I went first since I already full claimed, then we are popcorning it)

Forget wants

, Zakk has a question outstanding, he can popcorn if he thinks thats a good idea.

[AxleGreaser]

Ok VT here

I nominate Zakk to state exactly what his role name is

[AxleGreaser]

Yes and ZAKK goes NEXT for the mass claim

[AxleGreaser]

metal sonic should claim next

[AxleGreaser]

btw. we're doing popcorn, i popcorn to

metal sonic

full claim pls

my answer is "i skip my turn"


next:

shadowwez

Metal I take you are aware just how dead that can make you?

and you still want Shadowwez to claim next.

I am Ok with that.

[AxleGreaser]

Literally the only person in this game who would do tha tis me.

rly.

[AxleGreaser]

Shadowwez, I think you should claim your role.

If you took actions I don't think you should state what they are necessarily immediately.

[AxleGreaser]

After singer?

[AxleGreaser]

Also by Sonic choosing to go last(later), he knows his claim will potentially have intrinsically less credibility.
he is in better position than me to know if that is a good idea.
Henc me being flaxible about him choosing to go after Shadowwez

[AxleGreaser]

I'm a town ascetic cop. Will be around more tomorrow

Also, with the claims on the table, why hasn't anyone asked what those results were just to narrow it down? >_>

???

So as an unprotectable ascetic cop you have some results that you want to tell us about?

[AxleGreaser]

I'm gonna lurk until a wagon magically forms

VOTE: Zakk

the magic wagon lived by the sea.

[AxleGreaser]

We are getting ahead of ourselves.
people have not finished claiming roles and you have started making plans on how you will use roles

IF

people claim them.

HUH?

[AxleGreaser]

or what existing checks they have if any.

WAT.

[AxleGreaser]

Metal sonic, is yet to claim and people are staing what they wil do depending on an assumed claim.
The claim if it eventuates would also come with checks.

and ...

WAT.

[AxleGreaser]

Ok Metal Sonic now you are last.
Please claim

People are trying make plans based on you unmade claim. (and unstated checks)

[AxleGreaser]

not tonight Josephine.
If hes town and scum dont kill him he gets a check.
if scum kill him Mala gets a total clear.

if scum don't kill him, and kill mala instead they are probably a god father aka someone who does not fear his checks.

Who have you checked for a gun so far?

[AxleGreaser]

dodge

[AxleGreaser]

no one hammered zakk?

[AxleGreaser]

Interesting exchange

It was. My town read on scorpious got stronger, as it was a preemptive mind meld moment,
as in that was the thought I was about to think when I read it. (see 1081 where I echo the sentiment.)

While its also plausible, scum could have been finding it difficult to bus their partner,
knowing or guessing and risking it might play well with actual townies seems a hard call to make before scorp would have posted his actual thought in the thread..

[AxleGreaser]

EBWOP tag 1081

[AxleGreaser]

I for one think gunsmith/amnesiac cop sounds too OP to both be in the setup, whichi s why I'm voting shadowez.

2 Full investigatives. vs a matching pair of odd even split = 1 investigative worth of checks that is less swingy.

4 claimable roles is what I am dubious about.

and the dubious one is Zakk,

and then there is the small matter of him getting a scum PM.

[AxleGreaser]

Odd night is towny but you actually have him the idea before he claimed it. That's... Spoiling it.

While true,
if you peer back further.

why else had he conveniently held back one check?

[AxleGreaser]

The good news of this lynch is that if shadow is town, his two clears can be trusted. And we are getting a confirmed investigative out tonight as well. Mala either jails, or I get my action in. One of us does though, but that's no big deal.

The bad news is no matter who you lynch you get that utility of one more clear tonight. So that is not an advantage specific to this plan.
It is however only a gunsmith clear and scum has not been concerned about stopping your clears on any other night.

I already suspect the no kills mean scum is not afraid of your checks.

[AxleGreaser]

IMO
People need to from here on, treat the game more or less as moutainous (with named townies).
So yes people claimed stuff and it puts them in the claimed or not claimed pile.
Yes its possible, The Jk can block kills but as scum have no killed several times it will always be wifom whether they no killed again or not. So even that is an inactive (non investigative) power role.

Scum no killing means they either think/thought they have nothing to fear from the town PRs, or they kinda messed up and acted against wincon accidentally. OR they just love wifom? + some mumble mumble that I wont say.

Anyway my conclusion is we ought lynch the scummiest guy, rinse and repeat until the game ends.

So as for me Zakk has been the scummiest guy, lynch Zakk ftw.

Spoiler: zakks claim

If you are Zakk and a godfather, what do you claim when someone indicates, they may have role copped or tracked you.

Well if they were role cop with a check on you you can claim you are a

town Godfather

.. no wait what. Zakk knows they CANNOT have rolecopped Zakk if hes a GF.
So they(MS) are something else, (not role cop)
As Zakk in fact no killed the night before, the tracker part is easy tell the truth.
As they are not role cop, what else can they be? So claim backup RoleCop, so any gunsmith check would make sense.
and if it was all a bluff no worries. Just wifom that an extra useless backup rolecop was required for "balance".

There is nothing about Zakks claim that makes it unlikely he is godfather.
There is also nothing about the VT claims.

Ergo: Wanna lynch Zakk, dont wanna lynch Shadowez

[AxleGreaser]

VOTECOUNT 4.03

• (0)

  Malakittens

  —
  
  
  (1)

  ika

  —
  singersigner
  
  (0)

  Metal Sonic

  —
  
  
  (3)

  shaddowez

  —
  Metal Sonic, notscience, pistachi0n
  
  (0)

  AxleGreaser

  —
  
  
  (0)

  Scorpious

  —
  
  
  (0)

  notscience

  —
  
  
  (4)

  zakk

  —
  Malakittens, AxleGreaser, Scorpious, shaddowez
  
  (0)

  pistachi0n

  —
  
  
  (0)

  singersigner

  —
  
  
  
  (2)

  (NOT VOTING)

  —
  ika, zakk

VOTE: zakk

(L-1)

Zakk:- Malakittens, AxleGreaser, Scorpious, shaddowez, pistachi0n
...

[AxleGreaser]

yeah i dont think i wanna vote shaddowez

Here is a more complete update, last time I just flagged the L-1

VOTECOUNT 4.03+updates

• (0)

  Malakittens

  —
  
  
  (1)

  ika

  —
  singersigner, Not science(1644)
  
  (0)

  Metal Sonic

  —
  
  
  (3)

  shaddowez

  —
  
  
  (0)

  AxleGreaser

  —
  
  
  (0)

  Scorpious

  —
  
  
  (0)

  notscience

  —
  
  
  (5(l-1))

  zakk

  —
  Malakittens, AxleGreaser, Scorpious, shaddowez, pistachi0n(1650)
  
  (0)

  pistachi0n

  —
  
  
  (0)

  singersigner

  —
  
  
  
  (2)

  (NOT VOTING)

  —
  ika, zakk, MetalSonic(1646)

To lynch Shaddowez from here you would have to want to a lot.

[AxleGreaser]

do you want an answer from them or any answer?

[AxleGreaser]

Ok
I see meta less reasons

[AxleGreaser]

Hey Ika 1601 1653 Zzzz. Huh

@Mod

prod Ika gently

[AxleGreaser]

gnight all.
I expect not to b awake again in next 4 hrs.

[AxleGreaser]

Ok thats getting weird. (If I might politely suggest every one should find and read their role PM again....? I just did I am still town)

@Mala

who did you Jk last night?

Also can anyone remember why they town read VeeGee. The former pistachi0n slot.

I think i kind of did, when Shiro jumped onto them off max. And I am not sure why.
So if nothing else happens I have policy against losing pointlessly to VeeGee's slot.

[AxleGreaser]

actually I think I thought hat when Zakk jumped as I thought he was scum who had seen the glimmer of hope for Max.

So anyone have reason Pistachion/VeeGee is not scum.

or even a better idea what to do other than lynch the least towny fish in the barrel.

Pistachi0n if you have a better idea now might be good time.

[AxleGreaser]

bah

[AxleGreaser]

Umm oops
EBWOP

boop

[AxleGreaser]

I know it's because of medical leaves but singer has been V/LA over a couple of our night phases, if I'm not mistaken.

Take the thought and bury it in a hole. Now forget where the hole was.

Axles Rules as a mod: (note Axle is not the mod, but nvm. I only speak for me.)
In every night phase, if a slot is not and actual mod confirmed in the thread innocent child. Then every night stalls until any one who could theoretically have submitted an action could have.
Typically I will even stall the night, not just until that is actually true, but that it is also externally visibly true.
But be assured if I mod a game and you cant work out how I would have received an action from a slot, it is your lack of knowledge.

Fro99er is no slacker at math, he knows how to mod game with zero information leaks.
Also

---

POLICY

play the game, not play the mod.

---

So that conversation point is now dead.
Thank you for your time.

If you would like to make an in game relevant case why player such as Signer might be a person to choose that strategy, be my guest.

[AxleGreaser]

pistacho is clear

So: pistachio has no gun.

So we can lynch someone else, but when we run out of better largely null options we revisit the ones that seemed clear, by setup or check.

[AxleGreaser]

i wish notty didnt hammer until others came in

We are currently at 3 on Ika.
I am not voting because I don't want to be saying tomorrow that i wish someone waited.
I suspect Ika might not self hammer, but i don't want to find out until at least singers VLA is over.

[AxleGreaser]

I think I hammered with only a few hours left until DL.

My bad I was probably confused with the BBT lynch which went from 1 vote to dead while I was asleep.

Ika Chill, there is no need for the game to hurry, just ignore it.
I am happy to wait for everybody to be available to at least say hi, then you can say bye.
but i am only one vote so if you can talk anyone into L-1 you then you are your own master.

[AxleGreaser]

We're all done then.
hammer.
VOTE: ika

[AxleGreaser]

axle:
rule 0: yeah pistachion dies before mala.
rule 1: i may have other less important to me preferences about order

[AxleGreaser]

no

pistachion never dies

Apparently he doesn't.

GG everyone, that was one of the more enjoyable games of mafia i have played.
Ta to all.