Mini 1752: Back to December (Game Over)

[Supreme Overlord]

Greetings all!

Looking forward to playing again; it's been a while.

VOTE: MattP

[Supreme Overlord]

I wouldn't read into the not-Llama NK as having any real influence on Llama's alignment.

Llama, do you feel under any pressure at being considered something as a 'town power player'?

[Supreme Overlord]

AJ's post I read as fair enough; a little over-zealous but reasonable enough to try to be a 'serious' vote early.

VOTE: Elyse
I read her as sheeping Ocean with that vote. She 'agrees' with Ocean, but all Ocean said was 'fluff' and 'rubbed him the wrong way' - which is valid enough for him, but there's nothing specific there for Elyse to agree with.

[Supreme Overlord]

A little out of date:

AJ on Alchemist was weird/reaching but not necessarily scummy.
Curiouskarmadog's vote for MattP was bad, based only on the NK, page 1 vote, and meta. (Note: his play since then has been better; seems a more one-off thing.)

I wouldn't call Matt's appeal to meta too indicative of alignment (especially since his claimed town-meta is posting content, so if he stops, we lynch him for being scum, and if he continues, we've got

that

to judge him on). Though if he gets focussed only on meta and not this game content we have a problem.

I didn't like SO's post because the question he asked Llama was pointless. It makes it look like he's being inquisitive and scumhunting when he's not.

Have you been inquisitive and scumhunting at all? If I'm being generous, I'd give you a couple of one-liners about Matt being defensive.

It's odd for TKoE to say he has 'no' idea who is scum at this stage; especially with a vote on Matt - either that's 'some idea' or the vote's not scum-related. It seems bet-hedging to me.

I have zero read on OceanWind (which unfortunately won't change anytime soon, it looks), though of course I don't like that he voted for me.

At this point I could believe Rask as newb-town.

[Supreme Overlord]

Sorry, what was your point I missed?

[Supreme Overlord]

Oh, right. I don't know that there's too much to be gained by defending the question itself - it was early game and seems to be fairly widely considered fluffy/silly.
Anyway, at that point in the game it was mainly Matt and Alchemist arguing over the Marquis kill and the implications for a Llama vote. As I said, I didn't see the NK as having any impact on Llama's alignment, but I did want to use some of the content that was there instead of going off on an unrelated tangent. I was mainly wanted to register the expectation that Llama should be playing strong town. Possible outcomes included Llama responding to Matt making that declaration, or Llama

not

playing strong town, which should lead to Matt calling him out as scummy for it (or, if he doesn't, me calling Matt out for the contradiction).
So I wouldn't (and didn't) argue that it wasn't scumhunting as such (in terms of getting a direct read on alignment) - but I wouldn't say it was pointless; I was hoping to be able to use the information it generated.

[Supreme Overlord]

At this point I could believe Rask as newb-town.

curious, how do you define a "newb"(says the old man asking the "goon")

Well, apologising for inexperience and talking about queuing for newbie games for a start! Asking theory questions about NKs and defensiveness. Mainly Rask's post about 'Accelerating Game'; 'technically' a wagon is the best way to get out of RVS, 'technically' the wagon had been derailed, without realising the discussion was gettting us out of RVS anyway.
(I don't claim to be much more than a newb myself - I think I made IC but it's been years since I last played on this site.)

He took basically no stances,.

this is actually a good point if not a true analysis of the post.

Can you explain what you mean by this? If the analysis isn't true, isn't it mistaken at best and misleading at worst?

[Supreme Overlord]

On the [Elyse] wagon, Supreme Overlord is the primary offender of 'your vote is seriously outdated'.

Well, I haven't yet seen a target I'd prefer to switch my vote to, so I'll summarise why I'm on Elyse.

TL;DR

Elyse's play consists of miscellaneous posts about nothing, a sheeping vote with a (in my opinion) weak justification after the fact, and a whole bunch of short posts about Matt's defensiveness, mostly rehashing the same thing over and over.

I didn't particularly like 'Poor Marquis' - though it would be fairer to say it caused Elyse to catch my attention rather than I thought her scummy for it. I didn't think it was worth researching the way petroleumjelly did.
Similarly, a random post on the flavour in the middle of Matt and Alchemist's argument isn't alignment-indicative, but it was weird (could have derailed, but as it turns out it didn't).

Supreme's fluff in Post 33 rubbed me the wrong way.

I don't think AJ's paragraph was that bad. It was a reach but Alch has been a little awkward.

VOTE: SupremeOverlord

I agree with Ocean here.

This is the pair of posts I voted Elyse for. As I said then, Ocean didn't really make any argument for Elyse to agree with. She also doesn't explain why she picked 'fluff' (presumably - that's Ocean's word, not hers) over 'a reach' and 'a little awkward'.

It means that Marquis read you correctly last game. I'm guessing you were scum and he caught you.

This one could go either way; it's clarifying between curiouskarmadog and MattP, but it's posting without any content from Elyse.

Posts 73, 78, 83, 92 and 104 are all one-liners talking about the same thing - Matt being defensive with his meta. There is no additional content through here.

He took basically no stances, basically gave Matt instructions on how to avoid being scumread by him, didn't address my point and tried to turn it around on me instead, tip-toes around a TKoE scumread by calling him "odd", says he "could believe" Rask is newbtown (means nothing). Just everything about that was scummy.

Obviously I disagree with this. I don't know how 'post content we can judge you on' is 'instructions on how to avoid being scumread' - for everyone, if they post town content I'll think they're town, if they post scummy content I'll think they're scum. In fact, what it's more saying that Matt has locked himself into a promise to keep posting content, and he can be held accountable to that.
I addressed the point I missed in a previous post - I haven't heard back from Elyse about that. I'll also address my opinions on TKoE down below.
As for calling Rask newbtown, I disagree that it means nothing (especially after I clarified in response to curiouskarmadog) - the purpose is so that

I

can be held accountable; if at any point I consider Rask scummy, it'll have to be for reasons that can't just be explained by inexperience (in other words, I won't be able to make em an easy target, otherwise people will come back to this post and turn it around on me).

Elyse's remaining two posts, 122 and 125, are back to Matt - granted, in response to curiouskarmadog.


Thoughts on TKoE to come.

[Supreme Overlord]

3.)

Supreme Overlord, thoughts on TKoE?

I find him hard to read, and he hasn't posted much in the way of content thus far.

When I'm scum I don't say anything because I'm scared shitless. Look up my meta of the last year. It's not WIFOMy, it's like an actual serious phobia, I wouldn't be posting content if I were scum

Seems legit, guess he's totally Town guys! Pack it up!

2.)

Since I did not like Elyse's first post ("Poor Marquis"), I decided to check up on her use of the phrase "poor [player]" in case it was a thing she often says when players die. It is not, unless she varies her phrasing. I found two other instances, though:

~

a.)

Mini #1584, Elyse is Werewolf, taunting protown player in endgame ("Poor Aneninen").
~

b.)

Mini #1596, Elyse is Mafia, taunting protown player in midgame ("Poor thing, sorry you got caught").

I would guess Elyse has a habit of taunting / antagonizing players as scum (and here, it could be a "nyah-nyah, I killed you"). If anything, I like her first post less after looking into it.

Interesting, I highly doubt they'd be silly enough to leave such a blatant Scumtell on page 1, however, it might be worth keeping an eye on old Elyse.

'Seems legit' is classic TKoE sarcasm, not indicative of alignment. The comment on Elyse is similar to my views, as I've said.

Seems legit, guess he's totally Town guys! Pack it up!

You've never played with me before any know nothing about my play, why are you trying to discredit it? You've not even interacted with me or tried pursuing me up to this point

Both of these points are true(though I did take the liberty to read a bit of everyone's previous content), however, that was some of the most blatant WIFOM'ing I've seen in my many years of playing and reading mafia. It doesn't actually mean I think you are Scum however, in fact I have no idea who is at this stage. It's just a laughable thing for you to have said.

I don't get why being self-aware of meta is always so taboo in games. If I think my town and scum games are highly distinguishable and I'm town why would I not point it out? Why do I need to be coy about it?

By all means, point it out. But ask yourself this, lets say you magically got much better at lying as a Scum player, would you perhaps consider doing precisely this to throw the scent off? I've not played with you, as you so rightly pointed out, so I can't be sure how many levels of meta you can express. Therefore it'd be a total waste of time to put any stock in your statement, the fact that you are so desperately defending it now though... That I can read plenty into, and I don't like what I'm reading.

VOTE: MattP

What he actually says here is fine - the bit that stands out to me is the contradiction between 'I have no idea who is [scum] at this stage' and 'Vote: MattP'. However, I can easily read it as exaggeration for effect, or starting there and leading into the second quote. And since then he's flaked so there's been no follow-up for me to be able to judge.

[Supreme Overlord]

Rask's vote on AJ is hella bad; AJ is correct, the only things Rask has said about him all game are:

Maybe I'm giving AJ too much credit but I thought he exaggerated on purpose to try to bring the game out of RVS.

You still didn't really answer why you decided to vote there instead of your previous vote (or even why you voted Alch). Something changed and I want to know what actually changed.

Because first vote was pure RVS whereas this was partially-serious after what AJ said, which seemed like the first thing of some substance up to that point in the game. If you look at the game before the post previous to that vote (30) there was just a pretty silly exchange between Elyse and Matt which I didn't see as that serious at the time (17,18,20).

Petroleumjelly's isn't much better. Granted, he asked these questions of AJ, so it's not completely out of nowhere:

2.)

Aj The Epic, please answer Elyse's question:

I feel like scum-elyse is a shade-thrower over an active accuser. I think her post was more just wrong/lack of knowledge as opposed to scum.

What post of mine is a lack of knowledge? The one where I called Matt over defensive?

But AJ answered those, and dropping a vote without further explanation is bad form.


I've been looking over and over AJ's ISO, and it should not be on L-1. Alchemist's vote is way out of date (that's not to say he needs to remove it, but when he next posts he needs to update his reasoning on AJ), and Rask and petroleumjelly were without any reasoning at all. The only good vote on it is OceanWind's.

Elyse, how can you say this when two votes were dropped without saying anything else, and another is from back on page 2 with no follow up since page 3?

The AJ wagon gives me good feelings and I rarely feel that way about early day 1 wagons.

It seems town driven.

@AJ: Why are you still voting TKoE? Who are your top scum reads at this point?

(More on things other than the AJ wagon in a bit.)

[Supreme Overlord]

Another question, Elyse: You think Matt and I are scum together, correct? If either of us flip town, what does that imply about the other? (In other words, are we scummy only in association with each other, or are you reading us as scum individually and there just happens to also be stuff tying us together?) And now you've jumped on AJ; is that '1-2-3, found the scumteam'?

@SO: What is your opinion on Matt at this point? Do you think he has posted enough to satisfy his own asserted meta, and do you consider the content to not be problematic?

Good question. And the answer to 'has he posted enough content' is 'no'. His only posts that I would consider content are 147 and 148 - which mostly consist of a townread on me (which I admit, is great, but doesn't help my read on Matt); the only good part being the question to Elyse about AJ. This in particular is looking like saying something without actually saying anything:

If I were to make a generalized statement right now I would say that Aj's posting this page is bad in general.

So to answer what I think of Matt - well, I had him as vaguely town after the events of the first couple of pages, but if he's actively going to play towards his own claimed scum meta (in a way that is anti-town - lack of content - at that), I'm considering him vaguely scum now. If he continues to fail to post content ... well, I think I'd prefer to get a bad-content lynch Day 1, but if we have Day/Night flips and still Matt's not saying anything he'd be a strong candidate (of course, if he posts some actual bad content, he's fair game immediately).

@Matt, same question as AJ: Why are you still voting TKoE? Who are your top scum reads at this point?

@SO: What would you infer from my so called 'bet-hedging'?

Possibly that you're scum and wanting to lay a vote on a townie while late being about to come back and say, "Guys, it was Day 1 and I had no idea who was scum!" But more likely that you can't English, and have poor ability to flow when writing your posts ...

I have zero read on OceanWind (which unfortunately won't change anytime soon, it looks), though of course I don't like that he voted for me.

1. Why are you so antsy about my vote on you? This entire sentence was completely unnecessary to write. It is understandable if you don't have a read on me. Who cares? I made 3-4 short posts so far. No one asked you about your read on me.

I don't like being voted for? There was a degree of frustration towards you, I'll admit (I was

wanting

to be able to call you scum for it, but you didn't have the content to conclude that at the time); this was something of a passive-aggressive complaining/asking for more. Nobody asked me for a read? I'll give one anyway.

I explained my read on Rask as a 'newb' in 127. I should clarify, that I intended the emphasis to be on 'newb', not 'town' - in other words, I didn't find his vote on Alchemist to be inherently scummy (it was something I could believe a newb would do, regardless of alignment). His vote on AJ out of nowhere

is

scummy.

I still don't understand how the question "Llama, do you feel under any pressure at being considered something as a 'town power player'?" was useful. Llamafluff didn't respond. Why didn't you follow-up if you thought it useful? Llamafluff not playing strongly would be apparent whether or not you asked that question. Whether or not Llamafluff responded to MattP isn't affected by your question.

I didn't follow it up because we have had far more relevant things to address than redirecting back to a fluffy page 2 question. In hindsight, it was a distracting question to ask, and digging it back up would do more harm than good.
As it happens, I do think Llama has been playing fairly strong town, so follow-ups based on Matt's reaction if he wasn't are moot.


My top couple of scum picks at the moment:
Elyse (I've covered, and jumping on a shoddy wagon at L-1 doesn't help), Rask, petroluemjelly (dodgy votes), Matt (lack of content fitting claimed scum meta)

[Supreme Overlord]

My first reaction on seeing AJ's doctor claim was 'that's exactly what scum would say' (what are odds of hitting a PR on the first L-1 wagon) - but I'm a pretty firm believer in 'let claimed power roles be night killed, counter claimed, or otherwise reevaluate if they miraculously survive' (

absolutely

reevaluate at endgame; no one gets a free pass on a claim alone). My opinion on that stands despite the meta-quotes that petroluemjelly found, thought they will make reevaluating easier later on.

I was concerned that TKoE might be an alt account for Supreme Overlord.

Haha! Nice use of the evidence at hand to come to a conclusion


TKoE, what was the purpose of stating this summary?

So, Aj claims Doc and saves himself from the lynch. I sure hope he's telling the truth or we'll be kicking ourselves later.

Also:

Having said that, I find it a little suspicious how quickly that wagon rose and fell.

Which parts? In particular, what was suspicious about the fall, given it follows a doc-claim?


petroluemjelly, what do you mean by this:

If he is Town, his role is effectively useless.

This brings me back to a point I have already made. Unexplained votes are not bad.

I find it

exceedingly

hard to believe that Aj the Epic and Supreme Overlord think that the second vote on a player without immediate reasoning given is "terrible" / "not much better [than] hella bad."

My vote was obviously to push things in a new direction and to possibly grab a reaction, as well as moving my vote to my current best guess for scum. Not accompanying every vote with a reason is useful and not uncommon. I can hardly be the only player who employs a strategy of holding back on reasoning for effect. In fact, I had already done as much with my Elyse vote that I only later explained and pursued.

I get that there is a difference in playstyle here, but I really don't like plain votes with no reasoning accompanying them. It gives nothing for the person to respond to, except possibly 'Why?' (in which case you explain anyway). It allows scum to vote first and explain later if it's tolerated (particularly problematic if the wagon runs away like this almost did, and also in endgame). It can also be easily ignored (like AJ actually did); I would argue that giving a reason makes it more likely to get a reaction. In general, much like 'town should tell the truth', I consider having reasons behind voting to be a fairly core concept of town play, and having those out in the open makes things more transparent and therefore more difficult for scum to hide.

As far as your Elyse vote goes; well, I at least didn't realise at the time that it was anything more than random. I think you can get away with not having reasons a lot more on page 1 than page 7.

Note if AJ is town, TKoE suddenly looks like a good scum pick for saying its "suspicious" that the wagon on AJ was fast, which if AJ is scum, not quite so sure that is a suspicious thing. Interesting yes, suspect no.

Why would TKoE be scum for calling a town-AJ wagon suspicious? I said a similar thing (about the rise, anyway); will I be a good scum pick if AJ is town?

I've been looking over and over AJ's ISO, and it should not be on L-1. Alchemist's vote is way out of date (that's not to say he needs to remove it, but when he next posts he needs to update his reasoning on AJ), and Rask and petroleumjelly were without any reasoning at all. The only good vote on it is OceanWind's.

petroleumjelly, I'll have a look over AJ again and get you a detailed opinion on him. Rask, I'll have a look over other stuff and will consider updating my vote - but fair warning, it'll probably go onto you.

[Supreme Overlord]

Actually, petroleumjelly, can you give me any examples of your votes that meet the following criteria?
a) you were town
b) you voted without explanation
c) it was outside RVS

And while I'm on the topic of meta:

I'm aware I'm not super involved right now. This past week I had some huge deadlines and now I'm catching up on normal school things that I had to let fall at the waist side for those deadline projects. I'll be more involved in the next few days

When can we expect the 'next few days' to begin? Because you're not posting much of anything, which doesn't say kind things about you considering your apparent scum meta.

[Supreme Overlord]

I'm doing my AJ reread now, but a couple of quotes from Matt's ISO have stood out to me:

If I were to make a generalized statement right now I would say that Aj's posting this page is bad in general.

This might be coming a bit late, but can you clarify on this? This is a pretty generalised - and meaningless - statement.

Wow, those quoted posts are insanely specific the the claim he's doing now. That's actually kind of hilarious

Based on that I'm fine with an Aj lynch again

When were you ever 'fine with an AJ lynch'? I interpret this as you're now seeing AJ's lynch as inevitable, and wanting to look like you've been going along with the majority all along.

[Supreme Overlord]

OK, a full reread of everything regarding AJ.

TL;DR:

Awkward rather than scummy play, and internally consistent. Has a problem with answering questions right away, and the vote on TKoE persisted longer than it should have without followup, but definitely not worth lynching a claimed doc over. If I had to put down a read, I'd say medium-town.

I have to admit, I honestly see nothing wrong with the original post AJ attracted attention for (his vote on Alchemist). It may have been a lot for page 2, but I understand the desire to try and pull any little detail in an effort to get something going. I feel like AJ held his own in the back-and-forth between him and Alchemist/Matt.

AJ's next 'change of topic' post is:

I feel like scum-elyse is a shade-thrower over an active accuser. I think her post was more just wrong/lack of knowledge as opposed to scum.

VOTE: TkoE

The entire post just doesn't mesh well. Mostly what Matt has already stated, but the last line is a huge issue. "I don't like what I'm reading" isn't good enough, needs to have a reason and example behind it other than "yeah all of it p.much sucks".

I still find it difficult to parse the 'shade-thrower' line - I'm relying on later posts explaining what he means. This is also where he votes for TKoE with no further mention of him ... actually, at all from what I can tell from his ISO, except for listing as a null read in 230.

@AJ:

What is your current opinion on TKoE, and how did he go from scummy to null?
Though something I can tell through the conversation on page 6 is that AJ seems to have a problem with not answering questions - curiouskarmadog calls him out on that a couple of times.

Elyse, what benefit do I gain from buddying you? You'd be the easiest lynch to dump on if I was scum because frankly buddying you wouldn't really get me that far.

When I read this, I thought, 'That's exactly right.' Granted, I may be biased since I think Elyse is scummy; but my reaction was that it was a good comeback.

I find most of AJ's posts awkward/hard to read (and I think most others do too) - but what I do like throughout is when being questioned and explaining himself, he shows internal consistency. That is, it doesn't seem like he's floundering and trying to make up justifications after the fact. There are plenty of examples, but I'll give this one:

As I stated in my larger post before claiming, I don't like the WK'ing that comes through right as someone is about to be lynched. If it's bad, stop it early. I don't see how waiting for a wagon to develop to become some foregone conclusion only then to defend it is town. I took the correct action by attacking it early.

I really do think the wagon on AJ is more for awkward playstyle than scumminess. If you're still voting for him I'd suggest going back and double-checking; do you

really

think it's scum motivation (enough to want to lynch an un-CC'd doc claim), or is it just playstyle differences?

The best reason (most solid) I can see for voting AJ at the moment is that his TKoE vote persisted without followup or changing to a scummier read.

Finally, not based on AJ himself, but the (apparent) speed of the wagon, and the scumminess (IMO) of the Rask and Elyse votes really gives me pause about considering AJ to be scum (I find petroleumjelly's explanation about plain votes adequate; I don't have to like it, but it's a playstyle choice I'm not going to find him scummy for.)

[Supreme Overlord]

Apologies for the triple post - hopefully theming them makes them easier to read (this one is just everything since my last post).

TL;DR:

Today I'd like to lynch (in order) Rask, Alchemist, Elyse, TKoE.

I am not liking TKoE's last post at all.

To the first, a way of me expressing my

slight

suspicion of that claim. Also, so I can quote it later and be like "yup, that"

And what good would that do?

The rest is nothing of substance:

To the second. I get that we obviously don't want to lynch the Doc, and like Elyse said, an unvote waiting for CC would've been fine. I just felt like everyone jumped off like it was a fire up their ass. though looking back, it wasn't actually all that many people... Mostly just Alchemists extreme nope...
*shrug*
This is what I get for posting things while half asleep.

I find myself slightly disturbed with how quick the deadline is approaching, considering our two wagons are the claimed doctor, and Rask.
The former is a bad lynch candidate, if he's actually the Doc he'll die tonight almost certainly, if he's not our jobs get easier tomorrow.
The later... I'm just not really feeling a scum vibe from him, though I'm generally bad at getting reads from newer players.

Damn it Scum! Do something dumb already! ;-;

Backtracking, from what was basically the only substantial part of his previous post. Being half-asleep is plausible (though at 10:20am? Come on, man), though it's a poor excuse. Some more stating of obvious facts (there

is

still time to get another wagon going - but you've got to

do

it). And what the hell is that last line? There are plenty of scum reads from different people (for all manner of 'dumb' things) - are you saying none of them have any validity? Why are you still voting for Matt?


I've actually been liking Elyse's posts more recently. Pretty much everything since her actual AJ vote I have no problems with. I'm not going to call town or even not-scum quite yet, but

Unvote

- I don't think we'll get an Elyse lynch today.

I never crumb any role I have unless it's something akin to a hider. It's a fucking disaster to crumb doctor, too.

You had two excellent chances in this one. Just even waiting to post until someone voted Matt with a "I wanted to play with him" type comment works perfect if you were a doctor. Lesser but still good was when we literally were talking about defending other players for a bit.

Why protect Matt anyways? Its an unusual choice from my perspective, at least heavy WIFOM based one.

I really don't think im doing anything else here today.

Vote AJ

I don't like this post at all. I can absolutely think someone might not want to crumb doctor (especially given petroluemjelly's research), so that's not a good reason to vote. And 'Why protect X?' is just bizarre. Why

not

protect Matt? Who would you have expected doc-AJ to protect N0?
And just in principle I dislike the flat 'my vote's not moving'.


@petroleumjelly: I don't have anything more to say regarding my questions to you, but I appreciate the answers.

This jumped out to me on a reread:

I still like my AJ vote. In addition to what was brought up earlier, his "what do I gain from buddying you" question was bad. Scum buddy Town a lot, and he knows the obvious benefits to scum buddying a Townie. To suggest there was no benefit to that seems like playing innocent to me.

This is a pretty blatant misrep - AJ didn't say there were no benefits to buddying town, he said there were no benefits to buddying

Elyse

.
Given the vote from Elyse and recent posts from TKoE and petroleumjelly, I think Alchemist is the most viable not-Rask/AJ wagon at this stage.

Rask's vote on AJ was bad, and eir follow-up explanation was weak. Eir vote on Matt back in the day was a fairly neutral third-place as well (not a major point; but it looks like e likes to be in a position to keep a wagon rolling). I don't like the way he tried to subtly throw suspicion on AJ's claim without outright attacking it:

P.S. I thought doctors were supposed to always claim VT?

VOTE: Rask
L-2

[Supreme Overlord]

give me an example of what you think we are thinking is scummy when it is actually an awkward playstyle.

These are the three major ones:

I feel like for your next post you'll declare there to be no scum in this game.

I feel like scum-elyse is a shade-thrower over an active accuser. I think her post was more just wrong/lack of knowledge as opposed to scum.

Elyse, what benefit do I gain from buddying you? You'd be the easiest lynch to dump on if I was scum because frankly buddying you wouldn't really get me that far.

[Supreme Overlord]

TKoE, why are you filling up a post with jokes at the expense of scumhunting? Why are you not contributing to a wagon with 3 days to deadline?

You ask why my vote is still on MattP, this is a valid question, the answer is simply that I hadn't found anyone else worth putting it on,

it's not like he was at risk with my vote on him

.

I don't think this is something to be proud of at this point in the day. A vote on me, like Elyse said, isn't going to get a lynch either. I recommend switching to Rask or Alchemist, so we can wagon to a vote and claim, and go from there.

[Supreme Overlord]

Why are the two mutually exclusive?

They're not. But the way I read your post, it did have jokes and it didn't have scumhunting.

Bit hastey for a lynch aren't you... but yes, I really should jump on a wagon, last thing we need is a no lynch.

The last thing we need is no lynch, so yes, I'm hasty for a lynch.

Much like my question to Elyse, why'd you leave Aj off the list of wagons? (Because he'd already claimed?)

Basically, yes. Also, it was my list of personal recommendations;

I

don't recommend you vote for AJ.

[Supreme Overlord]

Simple, because SO seems willing to Lynch you, and Rask/Aj will happily lynch someone who isn't them, claiming now reduces the risk of a quick bandwagon.

I'm willing to wagon to a claim; I don't want Alchemist to claim if we're lynching/wagoning Rask, nor vice versa. I won't hammer without a claim (unless deadline is imminent), and I don't think most others will either.

[Supreme Overlord]

By my count it's still L-3:

Aj The Epic (3) - LlamaFluff, OceanWind, Raskolnikov
Alchemist21 (3) - Elyse, petroleumjelly, TKoE
Raskolnikov (2) - Alchemist21, Supreme Overlord
LlamaFluff (2) - Xtoxm, Aj The Epic
OceanWind (1) - curiouskarmadog

I'm short on time, but a couple of thoughts:
Rask is throwing his vote anywhere there seems to be some movement. I'll leave my vote here for the next couple of hours at least - I still prefer this wagon to either Alchemist or AJ.

Something else really bugs me but I don't want to discuss it in the here and now just incase an event is occurring im not willing to just give that away. That aside...

Llama

, are you able to talk about this yet? If not, when?

Side note when making this post I saw something that I want to put Elyse at about 100% town for. Not wanting to say what, but seriously, she is town for that one.

Why are you not wanting to say what? When

will

you be able to way what? I can easily see scum throwing out a vague read like this to sow confusion after their flip.
Also, why exactly are you unwilling to let it go to night and see if AJ even survives?

I'm feeling better about Alchemist with his last few posts. I'd switch to Llama before Alchemist.

OceanWind, would you switch back to Llama, or have you changed your mind completely?

[Supreme Overlord]

Llama, I think I know what you're talking about with regards to Elyse - I'm not sure I give it as much weight as you, but you're right it's something to keep in mind (I hope we're talking about the same thing here; but if so I do understand why you don't want to say since it could work for others).

[Supreme Overlord]

Because he is scum. Why let scum live? In the off chance he is actually town that would change quite a few reads.

This comment shows a complete lack of town thought. If Aj is scum we have done what's needed with him, and forced him into useless claim with a short life expectancy. Lynching Aj as scum on D2 instead of D1 changes little or nothing, but lynching Aj as an actual town doctor on D1 is a large swing against town and we simply don't need to risk it. It's comments like this, along with Llama's supreme confidence in an Aj scumflip, that makes me think they may well be scum together.

This is a good post. I'm not so sure about the scumteam conclusion, but I agree with the rest of it. With 24 hours to deadline I think this is a good direction.
VOTE: LlamaFluff
L-2

[Supreme Overlord]

If that's the case I still think AJ would be better. What I'm afraid of happening now is that AJ is alive tomorrow (cuz scum) and people will question if he could still be town but scum went somewhere else because they expect us to lynch him, and we're in a similar situation but with a day and 2 lives wasted.

I just want those who are mislynching me to say that they are going to quicklynch AJ tomorrow. He is going to try and whine about WIFOM of scum let him live, but he is scum so of course he is going to be alive. Literally wait to make sure there is no cop guilty or something like that, and AJ should be dead immediately after. Maybe a 24 hour day or so.

I'm not going to promise an AJ lynch tomorrow. If scum want him dead, they can kill him.

[Supreme Overlord]

I'll hammer before deadline if necessary.
Give me a chance to reread TKoE before I ask for a claim, though.

[Supreme Overlord]

Llama, I know you're not thinking that AJ will be town after all, but can you answer this question (from my post 248):

Note if AJ is town, TKoE suddenly looks like a good scum pick for saying its "suspicious" that the wagon on AJ was fast, which if AJ is scum, not quite so sure that is a suspicious thing. Interesting yes, suspect no.

Why would TKoE be scum for calling a town-AJ wagon suspicious? I said a similar thing (about the rise, anyway); will I be a good scum pick if AJ is town?

[Supreme Overlord]

Something I am concerned about is that the TKoE wagon was started by Rask, and to a lesser extent Elyse. Though Xtoxm and OceanWind hopping across goes some way to alleviating that concern.

@curiouskarmadog: going through your ISO, it looks like your reads have changed quite a lot throughout the Day. What are your current reads?

Looking at petroleumjelly and curioukarmadog's recent statements on LlamaFluff, I don't think they'll be joining that wagon.

I've stated most of my opinions on TKoE's play. The only thing I'd add is that I'd really have expected him to have more/stronger reads. His last couple of votes (Alchemist, Llama) have been more to join the wagon/contribute to the lynch, rather than because he actually thought they were scummy.

Intent to hammer on TKoE

; claim please.

[Supreme Overlord]

I'd prefer that actually; I'm going to go out in a bit but would still rather not hammer without a claim.

[Supreme Overlord]

VOTE: TKoE

[Supreme Overlord]

TKoE's 'reads' just before he was lynched, for reference:

Rask confuses me, his playstyle is slightly obnoxious (sorry...) but I don't really get a scum vibe from it.
Elyse I like, though there are some slight scummy undertones
Xtomx I've explained seems very town
Alchemist I'm wary of. Mostly just a gut feeling though
Overlord is playing within his meta and seems obv-town
Aj ... well if he's not dead tonight he's certain Scum
Llama seems the most scummy other than Aj
PT I got nothing
Ocean you seems reasonably town.
CKD is absent more than not.

I'm not really sure how TKoE would plan out his reads as scum, but I would hazard a guess that he would try to remain pretty non-committal about his scumpartners, or 'town-with-an-out' - that is, Rask, Elyse, Alchemist and CKD by this list. His reads on Xtoxm, AJ, Llama and OceanWind seem to be more going with the majority than opinions of TKoE himself. I do note in particular that he didn't give an alignment on CKD, unlike the others.

@OceanWind, how did Llama become a strong townread?
@Xtoxm, same to you.

I think I'll go for a big play today (day 2), and by that I mean tomorrow.

What do you mean by this?

@AJ, I second the request for your target and reason.

I had been reading CKD as town, but that dropped off somewhat by the end of the day (though the hammer was good, IMO).
@curiouskarmadog, what is your case on OceanWind? You never elaborated.

I largely agree with Alchemist on Rask in post 438.
VOTE: Rask

[Supreme Overlord]

Don't have time to go through right now, but Rask's move is pretty crazy for scum.
UNVOTE:
I'll read through properly in about 8 hours. There's no hurry for a lynch.

[Supreme Overlord]

Off to work so I haven't evaluated this idea yet, but is it possible to lock down part of the game with the claims we have?
For example, forcing AJ to protect Rask, so if Rask dies we know AJ's lying.
I don't know if Rask should bodyguard someone in that scenario?

Mod: If a bodyguard targets the scum kill victim, and a doctor protects the bodyguard, does anybody die?
What happens if a bodyguard and a doctor target each other, and scum try to kill the doctor?

*I do realise the chances of one of Rask/AJ being scum are quite high. But if we can go from high to certain I'd like that. Plus it'd give the opportunity for scumhunting Day 2 with a narrowed pool.

[Supreme Overlord]

I'm reading Rask as town for his claim and actions since.

Can people who are townreading Elyse explain why? My opinion on her has improved, and I'd

like

to be able to PoE her as town, but I've got that niggling feeling from early Day 1.

@Elyse, what is your opinion on me now?

Given Rask's claim, and assorted townreads (most strong OceanWind and Xtoxm, Alchemist a bit lower down; with Llama the logic is there but the feeling is not, I'll think further on him), I agree that an AJ lynch is the correct play.

I support massclaim. I'd like to get some use out of Bodyguard other than just a 1-1 trade.

[Supreme Overlord]

Wow. I might give a few more thoughts later, but the question I have for you, Llama - Elyse's town slip was that she forgot scum had day talk? If I were scum with Matt, I'd coach him in our PT.

Great scum hunting, and props on looking town for most people. I was expecting there to be a third scum of some description...

Piggy back on the thanks for modding, too, Equinox!