Mini 1782 Game Over

[Titus]

VOTE: Unvote

Hi. Who neegs hugs?

*hugs*

I can do hugs.

[Titus]

@Farmer, Yes. RC and I just finished a game with scum KT. He's spammy and very trolley as scum. See Open 527. Jeanne's posts weaken that but KT having nine posts is town indicative to me.

Someone ask me more questions.

[Titus]

Oh I'm here. Sorry totally got distracted. Was meaning to read up and forgot because of work.

[Titus]

Meh, fuck it. Not bothering reading.

What are the cases on the two major wagons.

[Titus]

VOTE: Max

I think we might be voting scum v scum, but in case I am wrong, I want pressure on both wagons to force people to decide to pick one or push elsewhere. We got too many prod dodges.

[Titus]

I am already behind again. Work and flu have been kicking my ass.

I am leaning Clumsy town based on wagons unless he had a universally regarded scumslip or something.

[Titus]

VLA until Tuesday

[Titus]

I am thinking Max is scum here based on wagon jumping. The clumsy wagon remained static while people jumped off Max. If Clumsy is scum, there are hard core bussers there.

[Titus]

I'll read more Tuesday but I got the activity notice and I am trying.

[Titus]

Hey, looks like we need Max Nos Huntress Johnny and Shaddow to break this tie.

That's about half the game deliberately avoiding major wagons.

Huge red flag here. Why is that? Can someone tell me why players (other than those on VLA) were not posting major wagons or pushing anything according to my quick skim of the VCs?

[Titus]

Mod: What is a follower neighbor?

VOTE: Max

A Follower can target someone at night to learn what actions they performed, but not who they performed them on.

In this case, the follower is also a neighbor, hence the modifier.
~Ircher

[Titus]

Ok. Ty. *scribbles*

My headspace is that Max was a scum wagon that failed to take hold. People didn't scumhunt much after I got back from my Vla though.

Where are you at?

[Titus]

Oh look who hasn't shown up. Max.

[Titus]

Ok. Ty. *scribbles*

My headspace is that Max was a scum wagon that failed to take hold. People didn't scumhunt much after I got back from my Vla though.

Where are you at?

Why?

I do not see any case that you have supported or placed for that slot. What makes his wagon scummy?

The fact you're posting this rather than pushing who you think is scum or scumhunting.

The group was presented with two wagons. One took off and the other didn't. Why? Why did the game stall with Maxous's wagon but Clumsy's wagon went through when Maxous has done nothing?

It strongly suggests Maxous is scum as well. Even in the rare event I'm wrong, a lot of the game state reveals itself in a Max flip.

Overall, a Max wagon is an excellent place to be until he proves otherwise.

Why aren't you pushing a wagon but instead derailing scumhunting?

[Titus]

@FAQ2, I am scumhunting. Figuring out the game state D1 , like I described, is scumhunting. I want to know Max's alignment.

There's little need to slog through 40 pages of vitriol in most replace ins. It's controversial but most replace catchups just result in peacocking and rehashing everything that came before and getting nothing done. Only if players highlight specific things is it usually wort the hassle.

You are not scumhunting here. Your questions aren't seeking alignment. Rather, the primary purpose seems to be to discouraging wagoning to uncover information.

Why not let Max defend himself and let his slot sort himself out? You're derailing investigations without stating a townread on Max. Why?

[Titus]

@froot, re: questions- either I ignored them because they're dumb or I forgot. remind me what you asked.

Waaaa, Lowell, I don't have time to do this just now. I (and others) mentioned it a few times. Did you notice when we were asking you? Right now I'd be more interested in why you didn't answer at the time than the answers to the questions.

The group was presented with two wagons. One took off and the other didn't. Why? Why did the game stall with Maxous's wagon but Clumsy's wagon went through when Maxous has done nothing?

It strongly suggests Maxous is scum as well.

Even in the rare event I'm wrong, a lot of the game state reveals itself in a Max flip.

Overall, a Max wagon is an excellent place to be until he proves otherwise.

(my bold)

I think this is a fair interpretation of events although I disagree with the idea of lynching Max for the info. Max didn't respond to my questions until I pushed him on it. Could be that he felt like he didn't need to because he was feeling particularly secure. Although, this is fair enough because it really didn't take hold. If that's because he's scum and the other members were pushing the Clumsy wagon, I don't know.

I do think that's what happened. When I said pick Clumsy or Max, everyone picked Clumsy. I had no case on either of them. I hadn't read. So why would one be more popular than the other? Because Maxous is probably scum.

I'm not saying we should lynch Maxous to verify it. I'm just saying it's a very low risk lynch that has upside even if wrong.

[Titus]

I would say the nosferatu kill would implicate Lowell the most to be honest.
He was the only person nos was really against.

I'm with this thinking, and I take the blame.

VOTE: max

^
This was a pretty poor vote anyway.
sheeping titus and "taking blame" for a mislynch he didn't actually hard-push sounds off.

I would still say huntress is scummy, she seemed pretty content to let the mislynch go through without getting her hands dirty so to speak.

For me it's the willingness to believe what's his name was just busy instead of lurker scum but not that other person. Makes her reads seem arbitrary.

I've mentioned 3-4 times that the scum-read on huntress is not a lurker lynch
it's because of her struggle and unwillingness to give and explain reads.

Max didn't respond to my questions until I pushed him on it. Could be that he felt like he didn't need to because he was feeling particularly secure.

because you're asking me to defend a lot of BS that Jake wrote.
I can't, I would simply suggest, just look at previous games from himself - you will see largely the same behaviour.

So, you've doubtcasted three or four slots, but what of this is actually supposed to determine alignment? Especially when you didn't vote anyone here.

[Titus]

I saw you respond once to the idea when I posited it here, but that was hardly a defense from the accusation.

Don't worry about it.
I was tired and being a bit snippy.
Maybe I wasn't clear before but I think it's scummy because she has struggled to come up with content to give. I don't think it's case where she's just lurking, I think suspect she

can't

come up with much which would indicate a scum struggling with the game.

i'll vote lowell though because i'm really not inclined to just ignore the nos night-kill.
People will argue WIFOM but nos was not an obvious kill nor a universal strong town-read so i'm inclined to think there was a particular reason for it.
Not like Lowell has been a shining beacon of town play regardless

vote: lowell

Why did you ignore my question?

[Titus]

I posted a bit about what I thought about Max yesterday.

Lowell - some people asked you questions yesterday but you haven't answered.

This is an annoying response to a call to action

Titus do you ever get tired of explaining when you don't re-read a thread?

Fack2 you either seem to not understand the way Titus is analyzing d1 or you're just willingly ignoring it but this lil tussle you two are having doesn't seem to be going anywhere favorable for you in my eyes

I would still say huntress is scummy, she seemed pretty content to let the mislynch go through without getting her hands dirty so to speak.

Strikes me as one of those 'damned if you do damned if you don't' situations, because I can just as easily imagine you saying something like 'she used deadline as an excuse to vote for that mislynch' had she voted

I've mentioned 3-4 times that the scum-read on huntress is not a lurker lynch
it's because of her struggle and unwillingness to give and explain reads.

I saw you respond once to the idea when I posited it here, but that was hardly a defense from the accusation.

Titus any update on Max thoughts after seeing him post a bit?

I'll update when I'm actually able to talk to him.

[Titus]

I'm really curious as to why Nos was NK'd. Did they crumb? Otherwise kinda nonstrategic. I'm not gonna bother with wifom with this (i.e nos voted lowell).

@Huntress, care to share your re-reads of other people?

I am thinking Max is scum here based on wagon jumping. The clumsy wagon remained static while people jumped off Max. If Clumsy is scum, there are hard core bussers there.

@Titus, your early day 2 vote, was this still what warranted it?

Yes, like I told Johnny, I need to speak wit Maxous to sort him further. It's a good starting point.

[Titus]

@Maxous, I don't see how.

Why are you voting Lowell out if wifom and not Huntress who you have a scumread on based on play?

[Titus]

3 - Lowell, why are you talking Roshar didn't want the "blame" for moving the Clumsy wagon, or am I not following?

[Titus]

OK, then the last method was real inartful on how to say that. I can't deny the rhetorical method is one I use as scum frequently.

Can you grab the posts so I can see context?

If I didn't want to see how Maxous plays out, I would be right there with you based on your statements.

[Titus]

No but seriously if I were scum I definitely would have killed Nos. So yeah she's right about that.

But anyway, I'm not, and didn't, and actually the fact that she thought about this in this way says more about her scumminess than mine.

Why though? According to what you are saying if I unstand is scum!Lowell makes that kill, but you're scumreading Roshar for the possibility?

Also which posts were you referencing earlier?

[Titus]

@Johnny, who is that to?

[Titus]

DO NOT

Absolutely no reason reason to claim neighbor and paint a target on your back.

Why are you supposing the neighbor or neighbors is/are town?

[Titus]

Mixed alignment neighbors always catches me by surprise, but lemme think. Scum neighbor claims, nothing happens. Town neighbor claims, dies. Good???

And why would a town neighbor necessarily die given the natural suspicion that would fall on a slot that claimed neighbor given Nos's flip?

[Titus]

In terms of Clumsy's actual content, I don't feel better about it. It's more him feeling bad about being a liability. That parts kinda getting to me. B/c that would be the correct town response to being falsely accused as town. But shouldn't there be some anger and bitterness too? Like 'Screw you guys, I hope it hurts when I flip town?'

Now, on to the actual content. I don't like how his read on me changed. Reading something the first time and thinking it's town, then going back and thinking it's scummy, is a thing. But vice-versa, reading something and finding it scummy the first time, then upon a reread thinking it's town, is just never a thing that has occurred to me. Which makes me think his read on me the first time was empty and going with the flow of things.

He gives lukewarm reads without backing them up and easily retracts them. His read on froot has changed as well, and it's almost making me feel like he gave his original town read on Froot just to appease us.

But his tone is making me hesitate.

Input anyone? Mhs, Apf, replacements maybe?

What do you think Lowell?

Yeah, I'm inclined to think now that I know the specific post in question that this isn't scum looking for a specific reaction given that he's also asking from the other slots as well.

[Titus]

Mixed alignment neighbors always catches me by surprise, but lemme think. Scum neighbor claims, nothing happens. Town neighbor claims, dies. Good???

And why would a town neighbor necessarily die given the natural suspicion that would fall on a slot that claimed neighbor given Nos's flip?

I mean that same suspicion makes us question everything they say until they die so what's the point?

That's an overdramatic reaction there. Suspicion =/= auto equal death and I'm the queen of the tunnel. :/

@Loop, not necessarily in favor of a claim, just questioning JF's position on the point. The question of whether or not the neighbor should claim is a schrodinger's cat. If the neighbor or neighbors are scum, then scum already know who they are. Thus, nothing is lost. If the neighbor or neighbors are town, then scum don't know anything and a claim helps them.

[Titus]

No, I don't completely think my vote on Clumsy is a last minute hammer either. His quick read changes at end of day added more reason for me to hammer. But just to clarify, I would have lynched him regardless if the max wagon didn't take, as he was also a scum read.

If I didn't want to take the responsibility for the Clumsy lynch, I wouldn't have hammered. Consider my reason why I backed off the Clumsy wagon for some time and pursued other reads. All the people voting him didn't bother. I could have easily not bothered either and fit right in. To say I left the wagon so I wouldn't take the blame for the Clumsy wagon is like saying, "ahah! you felt hesitant about lynching town! You must have done it on purpose so you can use it!" Like it's damned if you, damned if you don't. You don't provide me an option if I was town and was actually hesitant.

Roshar, I was agreeing with you. :/

[Titus]

I think Maxous is flailing scum here, looking for things to attack. He sees that his initial offer on Lowell is gaining little traction, so he sheep's the first case stated by someone else on Huntress. His big deal is Huntress didn't comment. Yet, Maxous completely ignored the allegation by Lowell that Roshar was fishing for votes on him.

[Titus]

Yeah, is no one going to comment on my thoughts on Maxous?

[Titus]

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[Titus]

Titus, I responded to you as well

Where?

[Titus]

@Roshar, the him in my post in 1417 is Clumsy. Poor pronoun usage. Context of my post should make sense now.

[Titus]

@Titus - I agree that Max is still scummy. He's voted for Huntress before so this is going back to a previous thought. He seems kind of apathetic and isn't responding much to the suspicion on him. This is subjective, so I don't think it's AI, but it's not doing anything to change my opinion.

I think it is AI.

[Titus]

I think Maxous is flailing scum here, looking for things to attack. He sees that his initial offer on Lowell is gaining little traction, so he sheep's the first case stated by someone else on Huntress. His big deal is Huntress didn't comment. Yet, Maxous completely ignored the allegation by Lowell that Roshar was fishing for votes on him.

You mean he accused Huntress of not analyzing my interaction with Lowell, yet he didn't analyze Lowell himself - who was his scum read. If that's what you meant then, I can see your point. I.e He should be analyzing a slot he finds scummy himself. Although I've learned town can find people scummy for things they've unconsciously done themselves. So, on the whole, I'd be hesitant to derive much out of this.

What I thought was scummy was that despite Huntress not commenting on anything, and was essentially prod-dodging, he made it seem like she was purposely avoiding commenting on me.

I'll respectfully disagree on the first paragraph.

Agree on the second.

[Titus]

Umm Frozen Angel and Jake from State Farm aren't in this game?

[Titus]

@titus- I don't understand the "max is flailing scum" here. I don't see it. And I almost always think everyone is flailing.

Can we get a lynch here or what. rosh is correct, but I'll pretty much lynch anyone save for titus, huntress, APL, and maybe one or two others I'm forgetting right now.

I don't get how you don't see it. Max just seems to cherry pick whatever and ignore what doesn't fit. Kinda surprised you don't see it.

[Titus]

@FL, No. I rarely do.

[Titus]

Maxous, you're at L-1 with about 2 days until deadline. If you're town here, you need to claim.

This game has gotten awfully quiet. Maxous's alignment will tell a lot about the gamestate right here.

[Titus]

Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.

[Titus]

@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?

PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.

It's not impossible for my analysis to be wrong but why would the wolves be pushing in an apathetic state when town just made two mislynches? I think it's more likely that wolves are just exclusively pushing bad ideas because we didn't FoS/vote them.

[Titus]

@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.

[Titus]

@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.

I think it's unlikely to help if we start with an idea of what scum might have been doing and then working backwards. I think VCA can help but most likely when it's compared with what a player's been saying or their attitudes towards the wagons in the game. There's so many possible patterns of scum behaviour that starting from that side is pretty difficult.

Then we have fundamental differences on the point and function of VCA. What people say is charisma]. Who benefits can be NAI.

I think it's relevant that there weren't very many other options yesterday apart from Max although I guess Lowell was the counterwagon. A lot of the votes on Max in D2 were the same as D1. It's possible that scum saw/understood the pressure on Max, and the willingness to lynch him, and saw that they didn't need to do anything to try to get a mislynch.

That makes me recontextualise Lowell's push on Roshar, FA_Q2's questioning of Titus and APF's vote on FA_Q2. I'd also say that Johnny and Titus' behaviour in D2 fits this description of possible scum play from reading D2 in this context. Garmr came in and talked about APF but it was a little late in the day (because of the replacement, totally null) to be considered for this point.

Also, to continue rabbiting on about the neighbour speculation - this was discussion that wouldn't actually lead to a lynch or present another option apart from Max. So it's totally free for scum to discuss without worrying about derailing a mislynch. I'm not saying it's AI (Max talked about it as well, so obviously) but that's another point.

About Lowell's Roshar push - he voted for Max, Max called him out, then Lowell pushed Roshar. Considering the pressure on Max, I think it's an unlikely scum play to move onto Roshar. There seems to be more value and it'd be legitimate to continue pushing Max.

Kinda. I see the point on Lowell.

[Titus]

@Johnny, Talk to me about Huntress. I hate the reasons she's pushing out but Huntress was someone I considered pushing today. For instance, the wagoning for telling us we're stupid is bad since we have groupthink issues. Yet, Huntress slot did little D1.

[Titus]

*I hate Roshar's reasons for Huntress push out.

[Titus]

Is there anyone you feel has a good reason on them? I don't feel comfortable with circumstantial voting by itself ATM.

[Titus]

Also, to continue rabbiting on about the neighbour speculation - this was discussion that wouldn't actually lead to a lynch or present another option apart from Max.

So it's totally free for scum to discuss without worrying about derailing a mislynch.

You keep referring to it as a, 'discussion'. It was one comment. You keep making it seem like I spent so much time discussing this like I wanted to avoid actual discussion that would lead to a lynch.

You didn't refer to me here specifically. But you and I were engaged primarily in this discussion for a lot of D2. So, why are you surprised that I'm considering that I'm part of who you're speaking about?

You made one comment. Max commented, smith commented, Titus and JF commented and I commented. Between 1372 and 1383 definitively, there was a discussion about the neighbour. I'm talking about you and others as well.

I think it's possible scum would've seen the likelihood of a Max lynch at the beginning of the day and let it go through. If that's the case, Lowell's push against you is unlikely scum play because it's introducing a new ML candidate when there's already a perfectly good one. The same with FA_Q2 (with the addition that he was questioning Titus on Max, who turned out to be town) and APF.

WHy are you supposing Roshar is a mislynch?

[Titus]

Again, all the premises you're stating FL suppose that all the candidates are mislynches. We know in general scum didn't want a major mislynch to be pushed. That doesn't stop weakass scum theatre or scum pushing a weakass lynch on a townie hoping nothing happens.

[Titus]

You're still not addressing my concern. Why did you have that supposition that all the alternatives to Max were also town?

[Titus]

Sorry I had you backwards for a moment. It's been a long ass day and I'm a little short.

[Titus]

I don't actually have a vote in mind, otherwise I'd be pushing it. The people who I probably won't vote are Titus, Froot, Gar, and Lowell. Anyone else is porbably worth voting at some point, but I dontnhave any really clear reads atm

*squints at reads list, looks at D1* Why on everyone?

[Titus]

I was thinking about the likelihood of Lowell's play as scum. I hadn't thought about them both being scum but it's a possibility. At the moment I'd say it's unlikely based on the discussion. It's also possible that Lowell is town and Roshar is scum or that they're both town.

I'm not making the assumption that the other pushes are on town players. There's nothing AI to me about being the target of the push. I'm thinking that a scum player might not push another player when there's a clear ML candidate. I think Lowell was a counterwagon yesterday, so I don't think this applies as much to votes on him so I looked elsewhere.

Scum might push if there's another mislynch candidate. That's not true. Scum can grandstand... look at how bad this wagon is and I'm over here, distance or just generally be unable to make content.

I wouldn't expect them to join up on other wagons to make any viable, but the small individual wagons are not AI without a scum flip.

[Titus]

@Titus - do you think Lowell was doing any of those things? Or that there's any reason to think one is more likely than another?

I get your point about the individual pushes and encouraging the counterwagon. I was thinking it'd be easy to jump on the Lowell wagon but the individual points are making a stand when it'd be unnecessary.

I don't know yet. I townread Lowell based on his play currently though. Based on the VCs, impossible to tell.

[Titus]

I don't actually have a vote in mind, otherwise I'd be pushing it. The people who I probably won't vote are Titus, Froot, Gar, and Lowell. Anyone else is porbably worth voting at some point, but I dontnhave any really clear reads atm

*squints at reads list, looks at D1* Why on everyone?

I don't think I understand the question

@Johnny, why do you think Garmr is town?

Because I know garmr is stubborn enough to do some stupid bullshit rather than hammer someone he knows is town, so I'm betting on him not knowing Max was town

I was asking why on all of those while Roshar asked just on Garmr.

Shit.

Fixed! The post in question was deleted on request.
~Ircher

[Titus]

Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.

I find this rather interesting. You think scum is off the wagons that flipped town? That makes little to no sense at all. It also backs people into a corner - you are scum because you did not push a town flip/you are scum because you did push a town flip.

@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?

PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.

It's not impossible for my analysis to be wrong but why would the wolves be pushing in an apathetic state when town just made two mislynches? I think it's more likely that wolves are just exclusively pushing bad ideas because we didn't FoS/vote them.

This assumes that they were pushed by town. How do you know that info?

The first is a misunderstanding or misrep. You can be on an wagon without pushing it. I'm looking at more apathetic shit.

I'm assuming people play to wincon. If that's not true, then scumhunting is useless and we might as well play darts.

[Titus]

Roshar, I'm a little concerned about you not moving your vote so early. Yet, I'm struggling to find a reason that I agree with in your ISO. I think Huntress is scummy though but I am not wanting to vote something that the only person pushing it is giving reasons that make me feel uneasy. Can you rephrase or rearticulate your push on Huntress without quotes (I'll ask for verification if necessary)?

[Titus]

VOTE: Huntress

I can follow that for now. Seems legit. I am not liking the pushback on you for "trying too hard" either.

[Titus]

Vote Count - Day 1 VC #12

Titus (0) -
Mhsmith (1) - Nos
Huntress (0) -
Froot (0) -
Pisskop (0) -
Max (2) - Froot, Maverick
Maverick (0) -
Shaddow (1) - Plain
Nos (0) -
Plain (1) - Shaddow
Lowell (0) -
Clumsy (3) - Rosh, Lowell, Max
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (5) - Clumsy, Mhsmith, Pisskop, Titus, Huntress

Deadline

Day 1 will end on April 19, 2016 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-04-19 17:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Mod Notes

Maverick V/LA til April 11
Shaddowez V/LA til April 11
Lowell V/LA til April 11 (apparently)
Clumsy will be V/LA April 15-17
Trying to outguess the mod is against the rules. Jk.

Vote Count - Day 1 VC #13

Titus (0) -
Mhsmith (1) - Nos
Huntress (0) -
Froot (0) -
Pisskop (0) -
Max (2) - Froot, Rosh
Maverick (0) -
Shaddow (1) - Plain
Nos (0) -
Plain (1) - Shaddow
Lowell (0) -
Clumsy (3) - Lowell, Max, Maverick
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (5) - Clumsy, Mhsmith, Pisskop, Titus, Huntress

Deadline

Day 1 will end on April 19, 2016 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-04-19 17:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Mod Notes

Clumsy will be V/LA April 15-17
Friendly reminder from mod to stay active. (

I'm keeping a close eye on that btw

)

Vote Count - Day 1 VC #14

Titus (0) -
Mhsmith (1) - Nos
Huntress (0) -
Froot (0) -
Pisskop (0) -
Max (2) - Froot, Titus
Maverick (0) -
Shaddow (0) -
Nos (0) -
Plain (0) -
Lowell (0) -
Clumsy (6) - Lowell, Maverick, Plain, Mhsmith, Rosh, Shaddow
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (4) - Clumsy, Pisskop, Huntress, Max

Deadline

Day 1 will end on April 19, 2016 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-04-19 17:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Mod Notes

Clumsy will be V/LA April 15-17

Prodding Pisskop

- Technically, the prod was due in 50 minutes, so I won't count it against him.

Vote Count - Day 1 VC #15

Titus (0) -
Mhsmith (0) -
Huntress (0) -
Froot (0) -
Pisskop (0) -
Max (2) - Froot, Titus
Maverick (0) -
Shaddow (0) -
Nos (1) - Rosh
Plain (0) -
Lowell (1) - Nos
Clumsy (5) - Lowell, Maverick, Plain, Mhsmith, Shaddow
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (4) - Clumsy, Pisskop, Huntress, Max

Deadline

Day 1 will end on April 19, 2016 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-04-19 17:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Mod Notes

Clumsy will be V/LA til April 17.
Maverick requested replacement.
Pisskop will be force-replaced.
Titus was prodded.

We know Clumsy is town. Max is town too. We have Pisskop, Huntress and Max who are refusing to do anything here. Huntress later takes a stand but doesn't really push anything.

Given we know that Clumsy and Max are town, Pisskop and Huntress are the ideal places to sort next.

[Titus]

@Huntress, They are the VCs I was using to make my determination.

[Titus]

@Froot Loop, Now who is talking rhetoric? I am wanting to see what people do with my theories and where they push. Huntress' rationale is not impressive and Johnny is pretty town.

[Titus]

@Plain, It's worth considering. I don't expect all the scum to be off the major two wagons and weak votes would fit the profile as well. Given the blowback that happened when I voted Huntress, I am more comfortable here at the moment. Yet an FAQ2 vote isn't bad, just not my preference.

@Fruit Loop, Don't know about my interpretation of players? Are you asking for my reads? How do you feel I misanswered FAQ2s question? If so, why not highlight it then?

[Titus]

@FruitLopp, Yup. Scum rarely push another mislynch when they have options open (Clumsy ftr). So it makes it more likely that Max and other mislynches were pushed by town.

Second, I am abstract.

[Titus]

DAVD?

[Titus]

Ps to my knowledge, role blocking doesn't block kills, only prs. So I don't know I agree w you. Could be wrong though.

Pps were u nos neighbor?

This is wrong. Roleblocker blocks kills. How would you seriously think otherwise?

[Titus]

Lowell, why did you hammer?

[Titus]

V/LA until Wednesday

Would be voting Lowell but IRL being afk makes that not smart.

[Titus]

VLA today

[Titus]

VOTE: Lowell

Your reads have been shit the entire game, you vote obvtown Johnny and cry now. You've been pushing me all game, yet when I come up with votes, you are silent. Don't think so dude.

@Froot/Lowell, Your point on me is taken out of context. The moment the Day 2 lynch flipped town, I knew I was looking for the people not really pushing anything. That's Huntress and I indicated as much in the thread.

Second, the only reason Roshar claims is if he doesn't get the votes without claiming. The scum would hard defend Huntress or offer counters or lurk to get Roshar's claim. The same people who quick voted Huntress are Froot/Lowell. If they hard townread Huntress, why didn't they pressure Roshar's claim? Because they knew it was true.

[Titus]

You Lowell voters, you think him hammering Huntress without reading the room after the fake claim was optimal scum strategy?

Yes. No chance for associative to form that way. What are you thinking?

[Titus]

What made you think Huntress might not be lynched? Even those townreading Huntress voted.

[Titus]

Ok I won't. I saw Huntress as dead scum and ppl racing to be on.

[Titus]

VOTE: Huntress

I can follow that for now. Seems legit. I am not liking the pushback on you for "trying too hard" either.

This. I was thinking Huntress for my VCA and I just wanted to see if Roshar had an intelligent thought process that I could follow.

[Titus]

Second, the only reason Roshar claims is if he doesn't get the votes without claiming. The scum would hard defend Huntress or offer counters or lurk to get Roshar's claim. The same people who quick voted Huntress are Froot/Lowell. If they hard townread Huntress, why didn't they pressure Roshar's claim? Because they knew it was true.

Do you think scum would hard defend when they knew Huntress had been caught? This seems unlikely. I don't know what you mean by quick voted Huntress. I didn't vote for her at all and I never said I was townreading Huntress, let along "hard townread" her.

@Titus

- What was it about Roshar's 1578 that made you vote for Huntress?

Yes. To force the claim. Scum avoid sheeping and claim the case is bad to force Roshar to claim. If Roshar gets the votes, he doesn't claim.

It sure seems like your avoidance of Huntress and demanding excellent cases is too much. If people vote my scumreads, I am in.

[Titus]

VLA until Friday

I might have broke my foot at Chicago meet. I am getting it looked at tomorrow.

[Titus]

Me too. I will be around somewhat but I don't trust my judgment ATM but there's no button for that.

As for your first paragraph, that's me and Johnny. Everyone else waited till the claim to vote and then it was fast hammer.

I look at the votes to tell the story IMO.

[Titus]

Ok, the games are a distraction though.

[Titus]

I think 1. It has to deal with basically how scum should approach the game. Namely, determining if Roshar was stubborn town or if he had a PR result. The last person to suspect Huntress was lynched the day prior. Determining if Roshar had a PR and thus was likely unlynchable versus a lynchable VT is a very high priority.

He accuses Roshar of fabricating a case discrediting Roshar but after the claim Lowell's concerns evaporated and hammer happens.

Given Max was right on his reads and the current push on me for being too smart because I looked at vote patterns, it's highly likely I am right.

[Titus]

@Froot Loop,

I didn't mention Huntress by name, but by category. I said that if Max flipped town, we look at the people not pushing anything. Huntress fit the category.

And yes on the quotes/summary thing. I like the link posts much better.

[Titus]

@Roshar/Everyone

Considering scum players would have known Huntress was caught, do you think it's likely that a scum player would come out and townread/defend her during D3?
You said that it was likely that scum would already know who you are, which is fair, do you think it's likely that a scum player would push you the way Lowell did? Bearing in mind that it was likely you were subsequently going to be revealed as (very likely) town?

Second, the only reason Roshar claims is if he doesn't get the votes without claiming. The scum would hard defend Huntress or offer counters or lurk to get Roshar's claim. The same people who quick voted Huntress are Froot/Lowell. If they hard townread Huntress, why didn't they pressure Roshar's claim? Because they knew it was true.

There seems to be an agreement here that the scum knew from when Rosh posted her case that she was a roleblocker who blocked Huntress the previous night. I suppose it could be that they knew this from a rolecop or follower result, or they took a guess based on Rosh saying that she wasn't going to move her vote. But the kill could've also been stopped as far as they'd have known by a protection or a BP, and I'm pretty sure I've seen instances of people saying they weren't going to move their vote when they didn't actually have a PR result to back it up. So is it really likely that they knew?

My point exactly. They wouldn't know until Rishar claimed. Voting Huntress disincentives claiming and makes Roshar obvtown. So bussing is the last thing scum would do until the claim happened.

[Titus]

Quadruple post!

Second, the only reason Roshar claims is if he doesn't get the votes without claiming. The scum would hard defend Huntress or offer counters or lurk to get Roshar's claim. The same people who quick voted Huntress are Froot/Lowell. If they hard townread Huntress, why didn't they pressure Roshar's claim? Because they knew it was true.

Are you scumreading Froot here?

That particular post should have said Garmr. Jumbled thoughts.

[Titus]

Do you genuinely think that it's scummy to have questioned Roshar's case? Because almost everyone else did, including mhsmith who is now confirmed town.

I think questioning is protown as a strategy (duh). Town can have wrong reads and play proscum inadvertently. (See D1 and D2).

Questioning Roshar's case benefitted scum (allowed drawing out a claim) and thus was what scum were likely doing. It doesn't mean that everyone questioning is scum.

[Titus]

@Froot,

You just gathered a collection of posts and said scum had to know. That's besides the point anyway. My point is scum wanted to draw a claim to see Roshar's role. There's no way scum deduced his role in there and you trying to fit that read is absurd.

I do think Lowell's tactic along with others not voting Huntress does draw out the claim. Scum wouldn't want to be seen attacking Roshar, but get a claim out regardless.

Town cases are not fabricated. Roshar just had evidence his case was right.

Max was lynched day 2. Look at who he voted and tunnelled...Huntress. Scum have been playing to try to lynch the smarter players in the room.

[Titus]

Va quotes in a moment.

[Titus]

Maxous, you're at L-1 with about 2 days until deadline. If you're town here, you need to claim.

This game has gotten awfully quiet. Maxous's alignment will tell a lot about the gamestate right here.

Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.

@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?

PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.

It's not impossible for my analysis to be wrong but why would the wolves be pushing in an apathetic state when town just made two mislynches? I think it's more likely that wolves are just exclusively pushing bad ideas because we didn't FoS/vote them.

@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.

@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.

I think it's unlikely to help if we start with an idea of what scum might have been doing and then working backwards. I think VCA can help but most likely when it's compared with what a player's been saying or their attitudes towards the wagons in the game. There's so many possible patterns of scum behaviour that starting from that side is pretty difficult.

Then we have fundamental differences on the point and function of VCA. What people say is charisma]. Who benefits can be NAI.

I think it's relevant that there weren't very many other options yesterday apart from Max although I guess Lowell was the counterwagon. A lot of the votes on Max in D2 were the same as D1. It's possible that scum saw/understood the pressure on Max, and the willingness to lynch him, and saw that they didn't need to do anything to try to get a mislynch.

That makes me recontextualise Lowell's push on Roshar, FA_Q2's questioning of Titus and APF's vote on FA_Q2. I'd also say that Johnny and Titus' behaviour in D2 fits this description of possible scum play from reading D2 in this context. Garmr came in and talked about APF but it was a little late in the day (because of the replacement, totally null) to be considered for this point.

Also, to continue rabbiting on about the neighbour speculation - this was discussion that wouldn't actually lead to a lynch or present another option apart from Max. So it's totally free for scum to discuss without worrying about derailing a mislynch. I'm not saying it's AI (Max talked about it as well, so obviously) but that's another point.

About Lowell's Roshar push - he voted for Max, Max called him out, then Lowell pushed Roshar. Considering the pressure on Max, I think it's an unlikely scum play to move onto Roshar. There seems to be more value and it'd be legitimate to continue pushing Max.

Kinda. I see the point on Lowell.

@Johnny, Talk to me about Huntress. I hate the reasons she's pushing out but Huntress was someone I considered pushing today. For instance, the wagoning for telling us we're stupid is bad since we have groupthink issues. Yet, Huntress slot did little D1.

[Titus]

@Roshar, I would.

[Titus]

I do think Lowell's tactic along with others not voting Huntress does draw out the claim. Scum wouldn't want to be seen attacking Roshar, but get a claim out regardless.

I disagree here. One thing that happened is that I clearly hinted that I was going to "explain later", I.e claim. The only players that would have understood this would be scum. After knowing my intentions, I would expect scum to agree with me and vote Huntress in an attempt to distance themselves and cut their losses. Either that or maintain a neutral read on her. I would not expect scum to town read Huntress and scum read me in an attempt to get me to claim. Otherwise they'd have to consider the scrutiny they'd place themselves under when Huntress gets lynched.

I think your assumptions are Wifom at best. You're supposing all town are incapable of reading and incapable of reaching Huntress scum without knowledge of it. That's frankly insulting and one of the reasons I prefer scum on this site. I've laid out clear trajectories motivations and you're sole reason for disagreeing with me is the suggestion scum wouldn't take heat like that.

Lowell is getting like no heat at all from anyone but me. Yet, you're tearing into me for being too smart. It's the same way Max was lynched most likely.

[Titus]

Where is Lowell? Lurking is ass off. Yet, he'd never do something consistent with avoiding heat on himself.

[Titus]

My third prod wtf...

[Titus]

@Roshar, I would.

(content clarification, Titus is responding to Roshar saying if people would be ok with geting on Heur wagon)

Titus, from what I can tell, you haven't been on my wagon/garmr's the whole game. Why now?

Because the vote history hadn't supported it. Now it does.

Lowell has the vote history + scummy play.

[Titus]

Not much to really comment on since my last post.

Why are you not voting johnny?

Why are you? I have had him as obvtown since the neighbor thing.

[Titus]

@Plain Farmer, No and No. I figured Roshar was extremely confident. I wanted to knw why and get out his reasoning. The quotes were getting in the way.

@Fruit Loop - When Huntress flipped scum. Basically, the only players thinking things through not based on night actions alone are dead. The implications are that I am a prime Mislynch candidate for being too smart on Lowell.

[Titus]

I am at L minus 1. I'm an even night doctor.

[Titus]

And who was your patient Night 2?

Johnny. Pretty duh. I've hard townread him since the neighbors thing.

[Titus]

Lurking earlier? Really? I'm modding a game, and have other games, plus a real life job.

Fuck you. You're scum aren't you?

[Titus]

And I don't know how the fuck that happened.

[Titus]

Ask anyone, hyperactivity is a Titus tell.

[Titus]

I have been. You just shout me down to pidgeon hole your damn theory.

[Titus]

It was different but reads change with new information.

I focused first on Huntress given the vote wagon. Huntress flipped scum. Ok, who acted funny regarding the claim? Lowell/Garmr slot. What does Huntress scum tell us? Scum weren't bussing and lynching smart people (Max) and content using me to do it.

[Titus]

To me, there's zero chance Roshar claims if she gets the support without it. Lowell and co hard defended Huntress and accused Roshar of being scum. Why? She gave tunnel indicators. If they could defend Huntress by making Roshar look like scum/insane, they don't have to burn the ninja.

[Titus]

I would rather have Lowell and since no one is voting with me, why should I go to Heur? If you say Heir is more viable, prove it.

[Titus]

So you're telling me that I essentially have to side with the same people who are trying to mislynch me on a wing and a prayer they're right on the second read and mostly town?

Why can't you just move to Lowell now?

[Titus]

VOTE: Heur

Great. If this doesn't flip scum, and I am dead, Lowell better be lynch priority number one.

[Titus]

Ok, so we're at either scum not buying my claim and trying to shoot Roshar or whoever Roshar blocked is scum.

I really doubt that scum shot Roshar. So who did you block Roshar?

Lowell is VLA until Tuesday. I saw this in another game. He apparently has lost internet again.

That is true. I forgot to mark such.
~Ircher

[Titus]

There's two reasons not to vote me

The way Roshar set up the setup (if town) is that the most advantageous thing to do is to no kill. Then, whoever Roshar blocks looks guilty as shit. There's a 1/5 or 6 shot in her roleblocking actual scum. Mislynch me. Mislynch Roshar tomorrow. 3 player lylo on a platter.

If Roshar's scum, she gets a guaranteed mislynch on me and just argues scum no killed.

[Titus]

Scum is probably Lowell for the same reasons I said yesterday.

Scum have to be smart enough to realize that Roshar was right about Role blocking creating a conftownie and no killing (or b Roshar is fake claiming).

[Titus]

I think you're being disingenuous about killing APF bring the best move.

APF flips (removing a conftown).
I was blocked so I am now conftown and unlynchable. plus, we get all the info from my wagon without mislynching me.

You've still got the two PR problem and I'm conftown and Roshar is prob town.

[Titus]

Because you are pretending like the proper action for everyone wasn't no killing to try and get my mislynch or you're so clueless that you actually buy that.

Killing APF
No lynch
--- Same kill plot hole, do you kill me or confirm a townie here...

Eventually, scum have to make a no kill to try and force a mislynch and Roshar's thereafter if Roshar's town

(Or Roshar has to make that point if scum)

Scum have to no kill at some point.

[Titus]

@Fruit Loop, it was stating that scum would likely no kill at some point and the foundation for that.

[Titus]

No kill solves the game. It's still Lowell guys. I'm like 85% on him.

[Titus]

@APF, Suppose for a moment scum had a strongman. Why would they use it? When they can chain lynch the PRs?

[Titus]

Can you at least take a look at him? I feel pretty ignored on Lowell and the last two lynches have been right when looking at my vote patterns. Plus, he's hammered without a claim twice now.

[Titus]

Yeah, this is confbiased shit.

Gg Lowell. Best scumplay ever due to IRL shit.

[Titus]

@Froot Loop,

Then what, they ML me and just shoot Roshar tonight or strongarm him the night after.

Second, Lowell did nothing on D1 or D2. He quick voted Huntress after placing doubt for Huntress forcing Roshar's claim. He quickhammered both Huntress and HA. He hasn't posted any content for 2 game days. Those two days, scum were lynched.

[Titus]

@Roshar,

First, when I said did nothing day 1 and day 2. I meant he pushed jackshit, not that he was inactive. He wasn't strong on anything to me. That's why he wound up in my vote pool options along with HA. Right now, he's been inactive and thus no one can question him about his actions. (Normally, I'd find that scummy but his V/LA is pretty well documented).

Yeah, he was placing doubt on your credibility, forcing you to claim. Just because you wouldn't do it, doesn't make it not the optimal action for mafia to take. Garmr's response is also a scum driven response but scum rarely all act in the same manner towards all of their buddies.

[Titus]

Can you explain the motive of scum behind quick hammering scum slots?

No claim to analyze. No responses need to be given. If their buddy is already going down, they get to appear as on the wagon. You can't slip up and say the wrong thing about a buddy's claim if they never make one.

[Titus]

That's why he wound up in my vote pool options along with HA.

Would just like to clarify, while Heur was in your vote pool, you did not actually push him.

Yes, I didn't. I can only push one person at a time and it's not like anyone took anything I said seriously anyway. We only lynched Heur as a deadline lynch. My reasons for scumreading Heur were pretty much the same anyway. Heur is just the scum y'all picked.

[Titus]

@Roshar,

First, when I said did nothing day 1 and day 2. I meant he pushed jackshit, not that he was inactive. He wasn't strong on anything to me. That's why he wound up in my vote pool options along with HA. Right now, he's been inactive and thus no one can question him about his actions. (Normally, I'd find that scummy but his V/LA is pretty well documented).

Yeah, he was placing doubt on your credibility, forcing you to claim. Just because you wouldn't do it, doesn't make it not the optimal action for mafia to take. Garmr's response is also a scum driven response but scum rarely all act in the same manner towards all of their buddies.

He placed doubt on my credibility from D2. A day before I claimed. He didn't suddenly find me suspicious when I claimed.

Yeah, of course. That's scum job. He doesn't suddenly get townread for doubtcasting town. Like really?

[Titus]

No, it's just happy circumstances for scum!Lowell right? That he makes a veiled reference or two Day 2, he doubtcasts you hard Day 3, and then suddenly agrees with you? If he really thought you were scum at the time, there should be some analysis rather than a quickhammer.

The hammers, happy circumstance?
Not pushing much, happy circumstance?
Doubtcasting you, happy circumstances?

When will you wake up and see that it's not all just a major coincidence?

[Titus]

Look, if we are mislynching me and letting Lowell coast without scrutiny, go ahead. Then mislynch Roshar tomorrow. Enjoy your 3p lylo.

I am done posting until people treat me like I could be town. The CONFBIAS is getting us nowhere.

To find the scum and get told but scum would not be that smart is frustrating since Lowell is one of the smartest players here.

[Titus]

VOTE: Lowell

How could seriously none of you people call me on not voting Lowell despite me claiming he's obvscum? Really.

[Titus]

And we've been over this.

- Lowell is pretty obviously scum based on his actions, and you're pigeonholing everything.
- And this setup spec has been discussed.
- They were not. We've been over this.
- We discussed that anyone no kills.

And yet your hellbent on not listening. Why is that?

[Titus]

And now you're just bogging the thread down again. You admit in your last post that this has been discussed and you've formed an opinion. Why should I think that any attempt at a rational dialogue will get anywhere?

[Titus]

I don't think Lowell's obviously scum. I think he deserves votes because I don't want him to win this game regardless of alignment.

Titus, how many scum are left?

This is a mini with two flipped scum, so one. Do you have some reason to think otherwise?

[Titus]

@Titus - If you think I'm not listening, I guess it's because there's something definitive which you think I'm missing. Otherwise, it's possible that I am listening and these are my conclusions.

It's not like the thread is super active, bogging it down isn't really an issue :/

You've basically dismissed everything I've said out of hand. There's about a zero percent chance you were listening to me. When others posted my thoughts and you dismissed them too, yeah I am pretty sure that you aren't. You want to convince me you can be reasoned with, that's on you to do.

[Titus]

You want to convince me you can be reasoned with, that's on you to do.

I mean, I don't think that's the way it works but ok.

Can you be more specific? Is it possible that I've listened and I don't agree with the conclusion? I feel like I've posted my logic so what is it that you think I've dismissed out of hand?

If you say something in the thread that I think is vague or unsubstantiated, I'm going to ask you to explain. I don't think you should be making me feel hesitant about that by bringing up bogging down the thread. That makes me think you want to discourage discussion.

You can post a wall. That doesn't mean you're listening. Anyone can reply to words they hear. That's not listening.

Like we addressed that anyone benefits from a no kill as scum. Yet, you just plugged your nose in as many words and said well I still believe Titus was blocked. No one's disputing I was blocked (well even if we did, we'd get to the no kill scenario anyway). We're stating that a no kill benefits everyone. You plugged your nose at this and tried to argue that conftowning me was actually a good move for scum.

[Titus]

I don't think Lowell's obviously scum. I think he deserves votes because I don't want him to win this game regardless of alignment.

Titus, how many scum are left?

This is a mini with two flipped scum, so one. Do you have some reason to think otherwise?

I mean you seem to believe the ridiculously town-sided even doc+RB so I'm wondering why you're not side-eying Rosh. Maybe you think there's more scum?

You see that possibility that I've been including about the Roshar needing to no kill anyway. It's me considering Roshar as scum. I don't think it's the most likely possibility. Not with Lowell's play.

I'm at Lowell, Fruit Loop, then maybe Roshar.

[Titus]

Titus, drop it. Just for fun, make your second case. You're wrong about me and I'm not taking the blame bc "omg well he was so scummy u guyz"

Yeah, I'm not falling for your diversionary tactics.

[Titus]

@Roshar, why the hell would town see my play as scummy without lies and manipulation being used? I've been right on scum ever since Day 2? I don't think it's necessarily scummy to think I'm scummy. To ignore the possibility that I am and the possibility that Lowell is scum is a scum indicator. That's why Froot is second on my lynch.

Why are you head counting nowhere near deadline?

[Titus]

Roshar, I'm not throwing shade at you. I'm asking you why you feel the need to do that. The fact you do is a PROBLEM but it doesn't mean you're scummy.

That's the only way ANY townie is mislynched is based on lies, manipulation, and stupid errors. Mafia is a search for the truth. If we eliminate our vulnerabilities, we become much better scumhunters.

[Titus]

Like, if you're going to lynch me, just fucking hammer so I can watch scum win this from dead chat.

[Titus]

@Johnny, do you think it's possible that N2, (if I was scum) I'd tell my scum buddies to no kill. Then pretend to be a role blocker, and get my scum buddy (who was widely town read) lynched the following day based on a fake claim? If no, then can you link a game where there have been 4 scum with 13 players?

Do you have reasons why you think Lowell is scummy? Other than him being way too easy.

I also find it rather odd that Titus has not claimed a target for night 2 unless I missed it and reading through the day I do not see any indication that there was a protective action taken there. It would have meant that your claim was not necessarily a guilty on huntress (though we now know that it was).

My target was Johnny. This has been discussed.

That's also why I wanted an independent scumread.

[Titus]

VLA this weekend. RL stuff. May check in periodically.

[Titus]

Yeah, this doesn't look good for me. I was wrong on Lowell and there's groupthink against me. I also did not rush night because I am innocent and I would have been VLA at the end. Sorry.

[Titus]

Rosh, at the time, was a townbeard.

Huntress had the right call in not having her do the kill. I figured that people would not do the whole scumread for being smart thing. As town, I would have STILL voted Huntress.

[Titus]

Neat thread. Wondering what Bells had to say but I didn't read anything prior to my replacing so it probably doesn't matter.

Doc claim wasn't bad, Titus, but the actual roles in the game made a doc seem too farfetched

Town had a lot of power and scum had no safe PR claims.

Investigative gets countered twice. RB was present. JK tipped. Doc was the only play.

[Titus]

Tbh, I deliberately no killed on the night Roshar blocked me. I wanted to frame who she blocked. Lol. Then lynch Roshar.

[Titus]

Mass claim on D1 breaks this.